Can we have a thread dedicated to election polls?

Aug 9 - Harris - 45.5%; Trump - 43.4%; Kennedy - 5.1%

Cook finally updated it's prediction map for the first time since Biden dropped out and it's all coming up roses for Harris. Frankly though, I was hoping we didn't get Georgia because we don't need it to win, and they are all but guaranteed to hold up the count and contribute to all kinds of election official shenanigans again.

Is it in Georgia where they now have to stop counting mail-in ballots an hour after the polls close, or is it Arizona? Either way, I also think Georgia is already lost thanks to all the voting restrictions.

What's the deal with Texas? Why haven't any polls been updated since January? I mean I know Texas has a very, VERY slim chance of ever going likely dem, but a lot of prediction models have a strong possibility of it going leaning D, and I think Walz could strongly contribute to that. Just feels pretty dismissive of them to assume they don't even have to poll. Same with California. Hasn't been updated since Nov, and it has it as 40% Trump. I think with the Harris/Walz switcheroo that's got to be a majorly outdated take.

R3 WTF?! That is deeply disturbing.

r4 I think it's expensive to poll Texas, so they just don't do it that often. Especially because it's not a swing state.

[quote][bold]New Nevada poll sees Harris with biggest lead over Trump yet[/bold]

[quote]A new poll of likely Nevada voters found Kamala Harris with a nearly 6 percentage point lead over Donald Trump – the largest lead for a Democrat in any presidential poll of Nevadans this cycle.

[quote]The poll also found that Nevada’s three Democratic congressional incumbents lead their re-election races.

R7 I am LOSING my mind over this new Nevada poll. Because the only reason we would take Nevada would be the same reason we'd be guaranteed Arizona--abortion rights on the ballot. And if that's the case that means Florida also has a chance to flip. It's starting to look more and more like these 6-8 point national lead predictions might actually pan out.

This still sounds like Hillary 2016. Trump will probably still win. DL doesn’t understand the immense hatred people have for Kamala, even among white traditional Democrats.

Never underestimate the stupidity of the American voter. It will be interesting to see how many votes RFK gets in this race and which side he takes the most votes away from. There are a bunch of Trump supporters today announcing that they’re switching to him because of yesterday’s batshit crazy press conference.

Completely ignoring R9 as everyone else here should (aside from FF'ing)...

R6 I think it's incredibly important for Democrats to be putting more money into Texas and pollsters to be paying closer attention because it's been shifting dem increasingly since 2016 and will only continue to as more and more of the tech industry moves there. It's why Texas Republicans have been putting so much effort into gerrymandering and suppressing voters--because they see the writing on the wall and are trying to delay the inevitable as long as they can. Because if Texas goes blue, it basically makes it impossible for Republicans to ever win presidential elections again unless California for some reason flips red.

r9 is a plant.

While I'm not sure Texas will go blue in this election, I think it's all but guaranteed within the next decade, and when that happens the dems will do everything they can to maintain that hold. Once Texas is lost, the GOP is effectively done. There's NO strategy for them around a blue Texas.

Ok. But I don’t want to hear any bitching and moaning when people talk about polls in other threads.

No “Take it to the poll thread, toots”

If anyone is interested, this is an AMAZING analysis re the Texas strategy that explains the shift and how it would guarantee a democratic stronghold on all 3 branches for decades.

Where’s the poll? Don’t hijack our brand new poll thread. Tacky.

The NV article at R7 has the pollster saying that Biden also had a 6-point lead "at this point in the cycle in 2020" (ultimately his lead in NV was less than 3 points), but he doesn't specify whether that "point in the cycle" was before or after the DNC that year. He's a frequent Republican consultant, so he might be tacitly tamping down optimism. Harris still has the DNC with its various possible boosts for her numbers.

R16 the video is a poll analysis.

Thanks OP. I get obsessed with this stuff every presidential election cycle and I'm deep in it now. At 270ToWin.com you can make your own predictive map. Based on everything I'm seeing, my current prediction is a decent, solid victory for Harris. Not a landslide but still a clear win. Nearly identical to Biden 2020 except Georgia is not quite feeling sure to me so I left it as a tie.

R19 I think that's an extremely reasonable model, especially as you're not even counting Georgia. I'm frankly one of the people hoping we DON'T get Georgia so we don't have to wait two weeks to get a certified vote.

p.s. if Harris wants to reach big for another state that Biden didn't win in 2020, North Carolina is the obvious choice. Last few polls have shown Harris only 2 or 3 pts behind, same as Georgia, and that's without any events there. Same 16 Electoral Votes as Georgia, *but* a Democratic governor who won't allow shenanigans. (Maybe Georgia's R governor won't either but it feels like more of a risk)

Harris and Walz should totally try for it. Big events in Raleigh/Durham and Charlotte, maybe even Greensboro.

[quote] [R16] the video is a poll analysis.

This thread is for current polls about the upcoming election. Not for analysis of historical polls.

Stein has overtaken Robinson in the MC gov. polls recently.

R22 Per the OP: "...analysis videos, and historic comparisons."

The 2024 election could mark a major shift in Texas, and nurturing that shift is what would guarantee a democratic stronghold and crucial reshaping of the Supreme Court in 2028 and beyond. Harris and Walz have the ability to majorly Jumpstart that change with this election cycle, and that's something that pollsters paying attention to the long-game care about. We've seen it play out in Georgia over the last 8 years and it would be infinitely more impactful for Texas.

I'm disappointed, I thought this thread was about big dicks.

Like clockwork in every election cycle, Dems invariably start fantasising about a blue Texas (and sometimes Florida). Not happening this decade, or the next. And if/when it does, the Rust Belt will have fully flipped red anyway, so you're right back where you started.

If Kamala doesn't flip it with abortion on the ballot, you can consider it a lost cause for the foreseeable future.

[quote]And if/when it does, the Rust Belt will have fully flipped red anyway

What evidence do you have to support this theory? This isn't a thread for baseless political suppositions that aren't backed by data.

What’s the point? Trump’s winning.

So much winning, R28! Don't you have a rally in Bozeman to get to?

I haven't been polled since the twentieth century which was before I had a cell phone.

Harris comfortably leads Trump in the new NYT/Sienna poll—and not just leads, but wins with 50%.

R21

They tried to do a rally in Raleigh (heh) but Hurricane Debby canceled those plans. I believe Vance was also planning on a Raleigh event because he follows Harris/Walz everywhere.

Oooh nice, R31. That ought to help calm down the worriers about Pennsylvania and her choosing Walz vs Shapiro.

Couple of juicy polling-related bits from Haberman's new NYT article, courtesy of anonymous sources from inside the Trump camp.

[quote]He [Trump] has also peppered his advisers with questions about whether Harris can sustain her momentum, constantly asking what new polling shows.

[quote]Soon after Harris replaced Biden atop the Democratic ticket, Fabrizio [chief Trump pollster] stressed to the campaign staff that the polls would get worse before they got better. Fabrizio has insisted, though, that the race has not fundamentally changed, that once voters are educated about Harris’s liberal record on crime and her role in Biden’s unpopular policies — especially on immigration — they will sour on her.

[quote]Fabrizio has predicted to campaign colleagues that Harris will have another two to three good weeks, through the Democratic National Convention, and then her poll numbers will turn in the other direction.

[quote]Others are more concerned about what they are seeing in private polling. Two private polls conducted in Ohio recently by Republican pollsters — which Trump carried in 2020 with 53 percent of the vote — showed him receiving less than 50 percent of the vote against Harris in the state, according to a person with direct knowledge of the data.

[quote] once voters are educated about Harris’s liberal record on crime and her role in Biden’s unpopular policies — especially on immigration

Yawn. We've heard it all before. The Trumpies need new material.

[quote]The Trumpies need new material.

Not to derail the thread, but it just hit me earlier today that they wasted four years on daily Hunter Biden coverage, and now that's completely useless. I just find that hysterical.

Poll Trolls and the trolls who poll them

She's trending towards outperforming Biden 2020 on the white vote, which would be huge if sustained through election day.

White vote:

Marquette (July 24-Aug. 1): Harris - 42% ; Trump - 50%

NPR/PBS/Marist (Aug. 1-4): Harris - 46% ; Trump - 50% (+6 Harris since end of July)

2020 final result: Biden - 43% ; Trump 55%

Here's something from the NYT:

[quote]Two private polls conducted in Ohio recently by Republican pollsters—which Mr. Trump carried in 2020 with 53 percent of the vote—showed him receiving less than 50 percent of the vote against Ms. Harris in the state, according to a person with direct knowledge of the data.

I smell toast!

Yeah, I posted it at r34 as soon as it came out, it was too delicious not to!

Does anyone have any suggestions for poll analysis youtubers?

R39 Yeah, I suspected that would begin to happen after Walz was announced. If he appeals to Western PA, he'll appeal to Ohio.

How delicious would it be if Vance can't even bring in his own red state?

Given how similar the final results were in Iowa and Ohio in the past two presidential elections, wouldn't it be safe to say she'd have to win Iowa as well if she's winning Ohio? And I have some trouble seeing that.

She might not ultimately win OH, but her rising numbers would help down-ticket races.

R45 100%. That's the goal since we really don't need Ohio.

Maybe YOU don't, r46!

Has Poll Troll showed up yet?

This should've been a poll.

[quote]once voters are educated about Harris’s liberal record on crime and her role in Biden’s unpopular policies — especially on immigration — they will sour on her

So now the Trump camp thinks voters are in a mood to be educated? They better hope not.

I see Walz running in 2028. He’s a star now.

No, Walz is a team player. He'll wait till 2032.

R52, you're giving up on the Dems winning this year?

Newsom and Whitmer will have something to say about any potential Walz run in the future, I'm sure. Their grand 2028 plans have been scuppered as it is.

I don't for a second believe that Walz has ambitions behind VP.

About Ohio, the GOP state government has been increasingly pissing people off there by ignoring the will of the people and referenda results about things like marijuana and abortion. There’s another initiative on the ballot to end gerrymandering this November because the GOP has ignored mandated reforms to date. I’m hoping ongoing resentment against the State government will tip the state blue . Ohio was a genuine battleground state not too long ago, but the working class in the northeast rust belt part of the state went MAGA. Maybe Walz and the pro union stance will help return them to their roots. One can hope.

[quote] Not to derail the thread, but it just hit me earlier today that they wasted four years on daily Hunter Biden coverage, and now that's completely useless. I just find that hysterical.

If Trump is re-elected, there’s likely to be a special prosecutor that will cover Hunter and his father.

I do remember that in 2004, Ohio exit polls said Kerry was winning, but somehow, this turned around quickly. I have no doubt that the corrupt Repub Secretary of State stole the election.

Walz told Harris he's not interested in being President. In 2032, he'll be 68 or 69. I think Biden has, helpfully, made it really hard for anybody 70+ to seek the presidency. If Walz did it, two terms later, he'd be late seventies. I just think Biden has sent that ship sailing and there is no need for really old people to run the show any more.

Also, too, those stories out there that Walz literally owns no stocks and no home... his retirement is his teacher's pension (and his wife will have one too), his congressional pension and whatever he gets as pension for his Vice-Presidency. So the guy probably wants to do the board of directors, speaking circuit, university president circuit after 4 - 8 years as veep. He's OK financially, but he isn't rolling in it.

Here is what I categorize as "holy fuck" polling news. In the FT, no less... no friend of anybody who flies coach.

Headline: Kamala Harris is more trusted than Donald Trump on the US economy

Subhead: FT Michigan Ross poll shows Democratic candidate leading on the issue for first time in nearly a year

It's not a landslide... 42% Harris to 41% Trump on handling the economy, but still... didn't see that one coming.

Poll Troll, have you left us? I hope none of the assholes on this site, often magnified during elections, drove you away. Don't go if you've gone.

r61 Yeah, saw that earlier today. It's HUGE that she scores better on the economy, he had a clear lead on that issue (for reasons unknown to me) until very recently.

Walz will *never* run for President, it has already been decided by him! He doesn’t want it guys — I know it’s hard to believe this because of the nature of US politics, but there are actually people out there (I am one of them!) who don’t have vast personal ambitions, but instead just want to serve our communities. Walz is such a man. He just wants to help fix our country and be that voice for the little guy because he’s one of us. Nothing more. Biden has changed the age limit, even if Walz somehow miraculously changed his mind, I actually think voters now understand just how important it is to weigh age. So even though our country is in love with this man, he will be way too old by then.

The ONLY scenario I see Walz is in the WH is if they try to assassinate Kamala (and I am certain they will try!!!). These are brave patriots, they need our support right now. The Union, Forever!!!!!! Down with the traitors!!!!!!! We must show these fuckers zero mercy, blood is on the ground, metaphorically speaking of course.

My anger has never been more visceral, even though I’ve also never ever been happier in my lifetime, and I’m 52!!!!!! I’m SO hopeful and excited!!! But I am also so fucking angry, goddamn these SOB pieces of shit for what they’ve brought on our country. Focus your rage all on Trump, Vance, GOP — not their base. If you pay close attention, all of the Dem attacks are laser focused this way, it’s very very important because we could witness a Civil War 2, we need to keep creating off-ramps for his voters like the Mayor of Mesa. The more of them who publicly come out because we are welcoming them in, the more likely we can quell political violence.

Keep reminding yourselves we are underdogs. Do not get cocky. Kamala has to sustain this energy for what, 86 more days. She can do it, but not without our help. I truly thought America was over, I’ve never been more excited for this country, I have waited for this….forever?

MARY! Todd Lincoln

[quote]Kamala has to sustain this energy for what, 86 more days

It's 85, you lying whore!

R60 They'd have 500K per year in pensions if he becomes VP. I think 99% of the country would consider that rolling in it! In MN it's a baller lifestyle.

There will definately be a book which should buy them a retirement home anywhere they wish and maybe the speaking circuit but from what we have seen so far, he may choose to do more public service than chase millions. I can see him out there working with young people or veterans in some capaity rather than collecting a million to give a BS speech to Smith, Jones and Green Venture Capital.

Where is PollTrollEA?

OP = Nate Silver

Walz may not want the Presidency at the moment, but if he becomes one of the most popular politicians in the country (and I have a feeling he will) and they come to him to run, trust me, he will.

I mentioned North Carolina above, saying Harris should totally go for it. New NC Poll from YouGov -- Harris and Trump are tied among NC voters at 46% / 46%.

This is excellent news.

ps. meant to provide a link to the NC poll... I'll link to the DailyKos story about it because the direct poll link opens up a PDF on you without asking.

[quote]They'd have 500K per year in pensions if he becomes VP.

Link, please. The VP doesn't make $500K per year to begin with. The president's pension is around $220K annually.

R73 The VP pension would not be the only pension in the household.

I don't think Texas will ever be blue, but purple, certainly.

RE: Walz's net worth. In 2024, very few Americans have pensions, so people sock away money in IRA accounts and the like, and/or accumulate wealth through the real estate they own. That's what shows up on paper as their net worth. But public school teachers usually have well-funded state pensions and I'm assuming the Walzs will also collect SS. Walz will also get a military pension. A couple doesn't need a million in the bank or in stocks if between them they are going to receive 5000-6000/month in pensions and 4500/month in Social Security. That's over $10,000/month in regular, dependable payments. And that's before Walz's pension from serving in Congress. We should all be so lucky in our retirements. $120,000/year or more is nothing to sneeze at, and they will also be vested in very good state secondary insurance plans after they qualify for Medicare, probably at no additional cost.

In your dreams, R76. Come back to reality.

Members of Congress are eligible for a pension at the age of 62 if they have completed at least five years of service. Members are eligible for a pension at age 50 if they have completed 20 years of service, or at any age after completing 25 years of service. The amount of the pension depends on years of service and the average of the highest three years of salary. By law, the starting amount of a Member’s retirement annuity may not exceed 80% of his or her final salary.

The pensions of the 250 former members who retired under the Federal Employees Retirement System, which began in 1987, average even less. Their average pension was $42,048 in 2013, CRS said.

a teacher who works for 25 years with a final average salary of $70,000 would be eligible for an annual pension benefit worth 40 percent of their average final salary.

sorry.. Minnesota gets a pension of 47.5 percent of their final salary, based on highest average salary for 60 consecutive months of service.

What happened to the dedicated discussion of, well, polls?

I was looking at higher paying states when I calculated (often the average for a fully vested teacher is well about $40.000/year (NY, NJ, Ca, Ill, Ohio, Tx, Missouri, and others). Even in North Dakota, the median pension is 57,000. However, Minnesota is stingier. I didn't realize that. Still, the wife will have worked for 35 years, and she's probably at a pretty decent pay rate. . So a recalculation would be something like $40,000/year for her, $25,000/year for him, plus 50% of his final years of pay in the national guard (guessing his final salary was about 6000/month), so an additional $3000/month in pension, so total closer to $100,00/year for them as a couple. Still not weeping for them. I think they have worked hard and consistently within the system that would reward them with a decent pension. To the person who retired as an administrator at 180,000/year, I would think you'd be getting $80,000/year or more if you were fully vested. That seems "livable" to me....

Now back to polls. What I have seen on some shows that if Harris/Walz can pull out solid wins in the blue wall states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) which seems increasingly possible and even likely with today's polls, they don't need to win any of the iffy states (Nev, Az, Ga, NC) to win the electoral college. Naturally, I'd love them to win as many states as possible, so that when shenanigans happen, as I'm sure they will, they will have enough extra to make that inconsequential.

Remember that polls today are a very ephemeral snapshot that are very often skewed and unreliable in predicting election results. Yes, it is better to have good poll results than not.

Did Trump ever get a convention bounce? Trump certainly came out of it a little ahead of Biden in the polls, but it didn't look like much of a change from before the RNC.

Between the brief period between the failed assassination attempt and the RNC convention Trump got a very slight bounce, which had already began dropping even before Biden dropped out of the race.

R86 His average bounce among likely voters was a mere 0.7 points for both the ass attempt and the RNC, which is pitiful.

My theory is JD Vance is an energy vampire like Colin Robinson from What We Do In The Shadows and he is slowly but surely draining Trump of all power.

Dems LBJ and Ann Richards were wildly popular in Texas showing that the state can indeed be turned BLUE. Colin Allred will win Ted Cruz's seat, mark my words.

Great analogy r88! Love that show. Yes, it definitely seems like the energy is totally seeping from the Dump campaign.

R89, I would plotz if that happened.

I seriously won't be surprised if Dump lets Vance loose within the next 2 weeks. Every day JD Couchella becomes more of a laughingstock and liability.

R89 That was another generation. A world of really bad shit has happened in Texas over the last 20-25 years.

LBJ last carried Texas, R89, in 1964. Sixty years ago. It’s almost like saying that Ronald Reagan won California, so California’s going blue this year.

A new YouGov poll has Harris tied 46% with Trump in North Carolina. She'll be leading by a point in a week, and two more before the end of thee month.

I would have said that's optimistic, R94, but so far her trajectory has been good, and she's likely to get a convention bounce.

Have you been polled? I haven't.

I'm a registered voter.

[quote] Dems LBJ and Ann Richards were wildly popular in Texas showing that the state can indeed be turned BLUE.

Richard’s won a single term as governor, in 1990, with a small margin, 49.5% to 47%. She didn’t even get a majority of the vote. She beat Clayton Williams after a series of serious gaffes that he made. In 1994, she was defeated handily by George W. Bush, 53.5% to 46%. She was also elected state treasurer twice in the 1980s.

In Texas, fucking Picasso faced Ken Paxton admits to tossing out 2.2 million votes from Harris County which has a huge swath of Democratic votes. Texas is probably closer to purple than red since most of its large city populations are much more liberal than in the hinterlands.

I don't believe in them since no one polls me. If they're not there, they don't exist.

I'm voting for Kamala. Polls don't matter, the real deal is what counts.

[quote] I'm voting for Kamala.

Are you in a battleground state?

R91, Vance isn’t going anywhere.

[quote] If they're not there, they don't exist.

R100 = Jocasta Nu

Bumping the request for poll analysis youtubers recs. I'm jonesing!

R100 Do you pick up your phone when unknown numbers call?

Don't bother diving too deep into the tea leaves at this point, r105, it's not worth it. The important thing right now is that she's (still) trending upwards, plus we're waiting to see how much of a convention bump she gets. And then it's two months of hoping for the best, basically. The debates and a potential October surprise or two might still shake things up.

Hopefully, R107, she can back high enough numbers now to give some leeway after Labor Day. The Trump campaign has almost three months to grow their base somehow.

I forgot to mention the NYC sentencing next month, if it goes through. That one could have substantial ramifications, in either direction.

i didn't think the sentencing would mean much but now I feel like it strengthens "we're not going back." That messed up old man is repellent to more and more people.

This is probably the most important poll of the past week. It's remarkable that Harris is leading Trump on "Who do you trust more about the economy?" Trump had been winning that question for the past two years, but the tide has finally turned. As the Financial Times states about their poll, it shows how badly Biden was doing in talking about the economy. His economic message was not getting through to the average voter.

A 13-point shift among young voters since the most recent poll.

R111 Harris has been addressing ACTUAL economic concerns and their ACTUAL causes and potential fixes quite earnestly lately and it's been helping a lot. She's talking about directly taking on price gougers and price fixing schemes in corporations as well as curbing and regulating corporate landlords, which is something she, as a former AG, has a lot more cred in than Trump. That's what people wanted to hear and I think now that they're hearing it, a lot of their fears are being assuaged--as opposed to Trump, who is just answering "drill baby drill, and suck up to China more!" when asked the same questions.

I never understood the polling between Biden and Trump on the economy. Biden's policy resulted in the best sustained economic recovery since the great depression. Trump gave tax breaks to the very rich and corporations and left the presidency with the economy in a shambles. Biden Administration is bad at promoting its accomplishments.

Sharing some great news this afternoon from a probably-reliable-enough pollster.

FiveThirtyEight just put up some new battleground state polling in from Bullfinch: Harris is +4 in PA, +6 in MI and +9 in WI.

That number in Wisconsin feels too good to be true. But FiveThirtyEight has trusted Bullfinch before and they are doing so again today, and they don't trust/publish all pollsters. And though this may be too good, it is consistent with the overall trend. Harris is pulling away from Trump and tracking to win.

He has a definitive ceiling

That's amazing news, R115! Thank you for sharing.

Where Dump will surely fail is with young 20-something Repugs. They won't vote for Kamala, they just won't vote at all.

In terms of the economy, I think it literally is all about gas prices being low when Dump ruled.

And when idiots have to choose between low gas prices and democracy, you know what they do.

R119 Gas prices were low for exactly one month, during the height of lockdown when no one was driving. Demand fell steeply, so did prices. It had NOTHING to do with any economic policy via Trump.

There's some truth to it, R120, gas prices were consistently lower under Trump for a combo of reasons, though the President does not control gas prices.

How long has the financial times poll been conducted?

We were supplemented with Russian oil when trump was in office, it brought the cost down. When Russia invaded Ukraine we stopped buying from them.

Does anyone have any good sources for insights on the Montana senatorial race? These numbers are making me nervous.

Hi Torta at R71!

[quote] Does anyone have any good sources for insights on the Montana senatorial race? These numbers are making me nervous.

Tester certainly can win, he's (very narrowly) won twice before, the first time with Obama at the top of the ticket, but in deep red Montana he obviously has to be considered the underdog.

R126 Do you know if Kamala's campaign or any Dem PACs are investing ANY money/time into Montana? We desperately need to hold onto each and every senate seat we've got. The GOP dumped nearly 30 million into Sheehy. Tester needs some help.

So, is Texas really now so deeply red that hunky Colin Allred can't win Ted Cruz's seat?

R128 Texas is not remotely "deeply red" anymore. In fact, the data shows that it's on its way to becoming a battleground state as soon as 2028.

High quality Florida polling apparently coming out tomorrow.

[quote] High quality Florida polling apparently coming out tomorrow.

Yay! I'm so happy.

R130 Finally!!

[quote]So, is Texas really now so deeply red that hunky Colin Allred can't win Ted Cruz's seat?

It's likely to be a 2%-3% win for Cruz, so not a blowout.

Florida is in play according to this poll (maybe the one R130 mentioned). Harris is just outside the margin of error.

r134 Yep, this is the poll I mentioned, thanks.

[quote]Trump leads Harris by five percentage points in the survey, but that’s closer than other recent polls and much less than Gov. Ron DeSantis’ 19-point blowout in 2022. It’s also within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error, and another sign of the enthusiasm Harris has generated nationwide within the Democratic Party since she entered the race.

Sorry, here are the actual results.

Suffolk/USAToday (Aug. 7-11): Trump - 47% ; Harris - 42% ; RFK - 5% ; undecided - 5%

A month ago I would not have predicted things looking like this. I know it’s a snapshot it time, etc., etc., but still.

Can anyone explain to me why skeevy creep Cruz is so popular in Texas?

There is massive social pressure throughout most of Texas to vote for whoever the Republican candidate is.

The "good news" out of Florida is actually consistent with 2020. Trump beat Biden in FL by around 3.2%. It wasn't a stomping.

If the Harris campaign has to make finite choices, and they do -- advertising in Florida is expensive as hell, and North Carolina seems more winnable (Kamala is tied with him in NC and Biden only lost NC by 1.3% in 2020). But still, any politician would rather be in Kamala's position right now than in Donald's.

For the same reason Jim Abbott is, r138.🤷‍♀️🤷‍♀️🤷‍♀️

R141, he never played for either the Astros or Rangers and is not from Texas.

Good lord, thanks r142. Of course it’s Greg Abbott.

"Texas possibly going blue by 2028" makes me laugh, I swear I read that exact same headline about 2020 a decade ago.

R144, Texas would have gone blue already (or at least purple) if it weren’t for the voter suppression tactics of the Repukes. Their big cities are overwhelmingly blue.

Another poll.

Georgia

R146, thanks for the dose of reality. Nationwide polling average +2.2 Harris is a world better than Biden a month ago, but still possibly not good enough. We are getting a bit giddy in here, self included!

One thing Obama had that Clinton and Biden didn't.. is the "It factor" of being charismatic, being able to draw huge fired-up crowds at rallies everywhere he went. Somehow, Kamala Harris has that factor. And social media is so much more a part of our lives now than it was even in 2008. I'm hopeful that this factor is going to help her, in the way that it helped Obama. Especially if she keeps doing campaign events that are bigger and more enthusiastic than Trump's, and everybody sees the comparison and he can't stop obsessing bitterly about it.

Yeah, she had better get that traditional +4% convention bump, otherwise I'll start to get nervous.

Wasn't Clinton +6 or something like that back in August 2016? So that might not mean much, as long as you keep your eye on the crucial states and campaign your ass off there.

It would be awesome if creepy weirdo Rick Scott lost in Florida and we picked up that Senate seat. 🤞

Never forget Rick Scott getting read to filth at Starbucks!

🤣🤣🤣🍿🍿🍿

Abbott is running for his fourth term (!) in 2026, timed perfectly for the midterms when Republicans will turn up in droves to vote against the Kamala administration.

So the polls at r146 basically show 2016 as an aberration. We all know that. The other three election the leader won. As repeated ad nauseum, I believe we have learned our lesson from 2016. We cannot take the foot off the gas. And we won’t.

Btw, r146 is a troll. They are posting stuff like this to discourage Harris supporters. There is nothing wrong with having hope and enthusiasm. ,

R152 great video, with a nice hottie in green tee at the end!

Texas.

Fuck yes, R156! Now tell me that's not a battleground state in the making.

[quote] So the polls at [R146] basically show 2016 as an aberration. We all know that. The other three election the leader won.

Not really. Clinton won the popular vote, which is what those numbers are measuring. She lost the electoral college by hair-thin margins in three states.

The TX poll at R156 shows her slightly short of Biden's 2020 margin in TX (Trump 52.06%, Biden 46.48%). I doubt she can close it but she could narrow it (TX margins have been trending bluer since 2012).

Re: Texas, there is limited time and $$$. I hope she does one or two big rallies in Texas but her main focus needs to be those six or seven battleground states that everybody understands are the battleground states. Take none for granted, keep coming back to Wisconsin and Michigan. Defeat Trump in each and all of them. North Carolina for a bonus.

Weird.

The weird thing was fatal... even if it softens and they stop hitting it all the time (which I think they have).... suddenly the emperor had no clothes.

And the fucktard keeps playing into it. She's got a job to make sure people don't decide she's too good to be true, but it couldn't be going much better short of a 10% lead in the polls.

Walz just put it out there and they keep living up to it. Dems wake up every morning to more weird shit! Total unforced errors.

The daffy duck voice is today's gift.

Harry Enten cautioning us not to think Harris has it in the bag.

I prefer to think of this period as just leveling the field, introducing her as the candidate, and softening up the opposition—the DNC will kick things off afresh. I think they've succeeded in doing all those things, and should have a good chance to boost their numbers more with the DNC.

The well-respected pollster Ann Selzer, commenting on Harry Enten's data, pointed out that a key difference between 2016 & 2024 is that Trump is no longer the change candidate.

[quote] The TX poll at [R156] shows her slightly short of Biden's 2020 margin in TX (Trump 52.06%, Biden 46.48%). I doubt she can close it but she could narrow it (TX margins have been trending bluer since 2012).

Simone Biles and Beyoncé are both from Texas…

Just sayin’…

Said it before and I'll say it again:

Kamala will inspire those millions of 20-something Dems to all get out and vote for her.

Dump will discourage MAGA 20-somethings from voting at all. Even more so in the next 75 days as his "message" becomes clearer.

[quote] The daffy duck voice

Please explain. I hadn’t heard of that one yet.

Kamala is also touting the Infrastructure Act that Joe signed. She talks about the jobs it will bring and has brought to different areas.

Sometimes it’s not the message- it’s the messenger. She has been a great messenger for this administration’s accomplishments and plans to help people.

R170 It's so true, and we can see the evidence of that immediately reflected in the polls. The minute she starts talking about what is effectively "Bidenomics", her ratings on the economy shoot up. When she talked about the real reasons for the Border Plan's failure in Arizona, her ratings on immigration soften. Biden was never able to land these messages. And even when he did try to make an effort to talk up his accomplishments, it felt aggressive and defensive. He was a great president, but a poor campaigner.

Adam Schiff was the right choice:

Steve Garvey the baseball player? Haha.

[quote] Adam Schiff was the right choice:

Daffy Duck, running as a Democrat in California, would have the same result. Let’s not pretend otherwise.

R171 all substance and no show.

[quote] Adam Schiff was the right choice

No California Democrat was going to lose to Steve Garvey.

Remember this key fact — what matters about our economy isn’t really how healthy it is. What matters only is the *perception*. Now would be a great time to have Dem partners elevate the condition of our economy AND drive home that the Dems winning this dramatically ups financial projections for real Americans. Tell Americans that the cost of food, gas, rent, interest rates, will go DOWN when we have both Houses and the WH. Talk about corporate price gouging and corporate bailouts. Talk about the cost of prescriptions. Talk about wage increases and collective bargaining.

Kitchen table issues are GOLD. Dems need to mine that gold. I think they are and they will continue to mine that gold. Walz gets it even more than Kamala, he articulates what it’s like to live off your salary and not save, he articulates social security too (his mother’s sole income is social security!). Tim is her secret weapon, keep using him Kamala!!!

And remember….you don’t smile and laugh about being ahead *before* the election, we get to do that the day *after*. Don’t be cocky — Kamala and Tim are 100% underdogs.

Trump/Rethugs plan to lose (by not certifying!) so they can kick it to the House, which means he will win because they have the votes. Our ONLY strategy in this scenario is to overwhelm them because they have already lined up people who will refuse to Certify, there is truly no other recourse. Governors are already telling them that if they refuse to certify, they will be charged, but in red states, that have no fear, and they are indeed planning to refuse to certify in key districts.

I am signed up to serve their campaign, how about you? We need you! Your country needs you. We must win, and we CAN win by uniting and working together. The best way to win over people is enthusiasm and the “personal ask”. There are people you know that you can talk to. Use reason, not emotion. Give facts, not lectures. Ask them if they are open to picking Country over Party. Most Americans all want the same things! The only issue are these remaining freaks who are living in a media bubble.

As 32 point lead is impressive anywhere. KH's last state lead was 24. Schiff was a solid choice.

North Dakota - Senate Polling (Lake Research Partners, Aug. 2): Cramer (R): 51%, Christiansen (D): 38% ; n=500 / D-Internal

[quote]North Dakota - Senate Polling (Lake Research Partners, Aug. 2): Cramer (R): 51%, Christiansen (D): 38% ; n=500 / D-Internal

Will the person who exhorts everyone to give away all their money to political campaigns plead for everyone to send their life savings to the Christiansen campaign?

[quote] A new Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey conducted by BSG and GS Strategy Group shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading or tied with former President Donald Trump in all but one of the seven battleground states. Overall, she holds a narrow lead of 48% to 47% in those states in the head-to-head.

[quote] Harris has closed the gap with Trump since the last Swing State Project survey in May, when Trump led President Joe Biden by three points overall, and was ahead or tied in every one of the seven swing states.

[quote] The one state where Trump still holds a slim lead is Nevada, though Harris has narrowed Trump’s margin by six points since May.

Monmouth national poll of registered voters (Aug. 8-12): Harris 48% ; Trump 43% (n=801, MOE=4%)

[quote]The one state where Trump still holds a slim lead is Nevada, though Harris has narrowed Trump’s margin by six points since May.

This isn't meant as cope, but just keep in mind that it's notoriously difficult to poll Nevada.

R182 I think all the metrics around "enthusiasm" will be as important as raw total #s of support. I sense everyone is tired of Trump, even MAGA faithful. The divide between and energized Dem and Ind electorate and a weary MAGA electorate should only widen after the convention and going forward. Before Biden step aside the 'turnout' factor most advantageous to Biden was a low turnout (the shift of Dem party to college-educated "most likely" voters).

Now with Harris it's all about getting Gen Z and women, and younger Black and Latino voters to come out. Nevada suburbs big turnout of Latino voters vs low turn out in eastern NC - that will give Harris 5-6% win (needed with the expected challenges and obfuscation of MAGA election deniers).

r183, you are so right about Nevada. Our exceptional STEM Senator, Jacky Rosen, is 12(!) points ahead of Alec/Koch Bros (Nevada is not very MAGA, but is very Dark Money conservative) and horrific pity party burn victim, Sam Brown. Trump endorsed him as he was flying out of Las Vegas. I feel sorry for the Texas Carpetbagger. But the claim of 12 points is remarkable in a state everyone says "will be close". Fuck that.

Blue LANDSLIDE.

Quinnipiac poll of Pennsylvania's presidential and senate races of likely voters coming out today.

I think R184 is on to something.

There have to be a lot of people voting Trump, if not necessarily supporting Trump, who are discouraged or confounded or having second thoughts at the enthusiasm for Harris. Trump isn't generating that. Even his crowds are declining (the true deplorables.) So that somehow is going to translate into something good for Democrats, whether it's votes for Harris or just staying home, defeated already.

I said this day after Biden endorsed Harris: Trump is yesterday's news.

Look at Nebraska sportin' those cute blue stripes!

I hafta say, I'm a bit shocked to see Nevada swinging back towards Trump. I thought for sure it'd be in the bag for Harris the way things were looking.

Monmouth national poll: [Definitely + probably vote for]

Harris: 48% Trump: 43% — Definitely will NOT vote for

Trump: 49% Harris: 44% —— Generic Ballot 🟦 DEM: 48% (+3 from June) 🟥 GOP: 46% (-2) —— Fav/unfav Walz: 37-30 (+7) Harris: 48-50 (-2) Vance: 36-41 (-5) Trump: 43-56 (-13) Biden: 40-59 (-19) — Enthusiastic about voting

85% of Democrats 71% of Republicans — #5 (2.9/3.0) | 801 RV | 8/8-12 | R32/D29

^*(FIXED FORMATTING)

Monmouth national poll: [Definitely + probably vote for]

Harris: 48%

Trump: 43%

—

Definitely will NOT vote for

Trump: 49%

Harris: 44%

——

Generic Ballot

🟦 DEM: 48% (+3 from June)

🟥 GOP: 46% (-2)

——

Fav/unfav:

Walz: 37-30 (+7)

Harris: 48-50 (-2)

Vance: 36-41 (-5)

Trump: 43-56 (-13)

Biden: 40-59 (-19)

—

Enthusiastic about voting

85% of Democrats

71% of Republicans

—

#5 (2.9/3.0) | 801 RV | 8/8-12 | R32/D29

Santos' district.

NY-3 House Polling (McLaughlin, July 25): Suozzi (D): 51%, LiPetri (R): 37% / n=400

Latinos (Equis, Aug. 4): Harris 56% (+19), Trump 37% / n=2183

Last poll vs Biden (Jun. 5): Biden +5

Florida (Atlantic University, Aug. 10-11): Trump 50% (+3), Harris 47% / senate: Scott 47% (+4), Mucarsel-Powell 43% / n=1040 likely voters / MOE=3%

I should have specified that they polled those Latinos in the swing states only.

Say you want to lap on my asshole?

Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac, Aug. 8-12): Harris 48%, Trump 45%, RFK 4% / senate: Casey (D): 52%, McCormick (R): 44% / n=1,738 likely voters / MOE=2.4

I'm literally dreaming in polls at this point. When we went out for dinner with friends last night and I had no service inside the restaurant, I had to excuse myself 2-3 times to go outside and check for poll updates. My boyfriend is threatening an intervention.

Thank you, DL, for enabling my addiction.

Had Joe Biden gotten his demented ass out of the race sooner, Trump would stand no chance of winning.

3 caution points for Democrats...

1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.

2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.

3. Dems don't say they're more likely to vote now than in May

When Trump wins, two things will be blamed:

Joe Biden not choosing not to run from the beginning.

Trump getting shot.

Philly has Trump signs up all over the place.

National poll (SSRS/Pew, Aug. 5-11): Harris 46% (+6), Trump 45%, RFK 7% / n=9,201 / MOE=1.3

[quote]Had Joe Biden gotten his demented ass out of the race sooner, Trump would stand no chance of winning.

Au contraire; Biden and the Dems chose the peak moment for the change. The dynamics now are not the same as in 2016, and a straight comparison is not predictive—for one thing, at this point in 2016 the DNC had come and gone weeks before; for another, Trump isn't getting the big crowds anymore and, as a very well known quantity, doesn't have as much of a "change" factor. IF Harris can keep this momentum up she has an excellent chance of winning.

Have to agree with r203. Biden's timing in pulling out was impeccable, even if he didn't intend it to be nor knew what the outcome would be.

Loving today’s updates!!

Harris down only 3 pts in Florida, I’d love to see her go down there and fill venues in Miami and Tampa, and make Trump go apoplectic. It will also send a message for 2028 even if we don’t quite win FL this time.

[quote] I'm literally dreaming in polls at this point. When we went out for dinner with friends last night and I had no service inside the restaurant, I had to excuse myself 2-3 times to go outside and check for poll updates. My boyfriend is threatening an intervention.

And it's only Aug. 14!

Don't obsess over the polls. You'll be on a nauseating roller coaster until November. Look at the long game.

Let's start the voting!

[quote] “She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden. So the entire electoral pool has changed. And if it continues in this direction, you have to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House. The actual people who are participating. She’s got intensity now. She’s got an intensity advantage. She’s got a demographic advantage. And I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime,’ Luntz declared.

Ha ha!

Joe is wily.

Kamala is on fire!

Coach Walz is firing up the home team!

Let’s keep it going.

Harry Enten seems to be in the bag for Trump winning.

Nothing but doom & gloom from him.

R205, Biden waited till after the Convention to announce and the Post RNC convention bounce did not happen.Biden sucked all the oxygen out of the political room, and refocused all attention and cash onto VP Harris. Biden knew when he could maximize throwing himself in his own sword.

Biden was and is BRILLIANT.

Yeah, it was all a part of Biden's Machiavellian genius.

Actually it was, R214. However bitter he may have been about stepping aside, he weaponized it against the Republicans as only a seasoned and canny Democrat could.

Not buying it for one moment.

Biden may be mad now, but he’ll soon forget about it. The same with what day it is, where he’s at, and what he’s supposed to be doing.

I don't think you're really getting it, R216.

Biden’s relieved to have had Harris to pass the torch to

Biden’s job was getting dump out of the White House. Harris’ job is keeping him out

Joe Biden has reportedly acknowledged that Nancy Pelosi “did what she had to do” in ousting him to keep Donald Trump from returning to the White House.

“She did what she had to do” in order to give Democrats the best chance to win in November, Mr Biden is said to have told one of his close associates.

R214, R216, R220 Move it to the Biden thread, toots. This one is strictly for discussing polls concerning the 2024 election, of which Biden is no longer leading the ticket on.

R221, Poll Troll!

Wait. Why aren't you authenticated?

Are you troll Poll Troll?

Not him. I think we've lost him. And I am sad. Sad like Christmas Mouse sad.

R223 for sure. R221 is a little too aggressive for our sweet, docile Poll Troll.

(No shade R221. I love some well placed aggression. You're just clearly not our guy.)

I am not Poll Troll™ but as OP, I am stepping up in his stead to collect the Poll Troll Toll.

Trump is MORE popular now, Harry Enten at R199? That's utter bullshit, even the MAGA crowd, Nazis, and Qanon nutters are sick of his tired shtick.

I watched the Frontline called “Biden’s Decision”, it was powerful and I highly recommend it.

I do believe that all of these stories are true at the same time. Nancy calls herself “reptilian” in her ability to strategize and remove all personal distractions from winning. She is ruthless but benevolent, and I plan to study her life and leadership. She’s a true servant leader, and I am so grateful she “did what she had to do” for America.

Joe was too close to it, and this is why who we put in matters so much. Think! It is moments such as this where we rely on our leaders to do right by America, and in this case, both Biden and Pelosi fulfilled that mission. They are true patriots and heroes. Imagine if this had been Trump.

But I doubt Joe or Jill will ever speak to Nancy again too lol. Personal feelings are indeed damaged, loyalty was questioned, trust broken. But it is what it is, right? It had to happen this way. For our Democracy to be saved, there was no other option, and both parties came to this conclusion, though not at the same precise moment. Joe had to cook longer. They will all carry scars from this.

Nancy (who I love) could have said whatever to Joe but in the end, only Joe could make the decision to bow out. Don't give Nancy a power she doesn't have.

Yes, R228, in the sense that she didn’t put a gun to his head, but to suggest Biden was given much choice in the matter is to defy reality.

Nevertheless, it was Joe's choice.

And I am grateful.

As evidenced by all of Biden’s efforts up until he bowed out, Biden would no doubt still be in this race but for the full court press put on him by his party & donors.

Here this, Biden bitches: there's a current thread right now dedicated to this VERY topic. Kindly move your debate there and off our poll thread.

So, speaking of what happened to Biden, what's up with that?

[quote] Let's start the voting!

Let's get to ramming.

Turnout for the Wisconsin primary was the highest it has been in 60 years, with a 45% turnout in Madison. Bodes well for the general.

r232, from the title of the thread, I would have never opened it. It looked like troll bait.

Bitches be stoopid.

National poll (ActiVote, Aug. 7-14): Harris 52.4% (+5), Trump 47.6% / n=1,000 / MOE=3.1

Very interesting, large poll of young people

For better or worse, richer or poorer, in good times and bad, I've never jumped off the Democratic Bandwagon.

That's probably why I never had this frame of reference to understand, and probably dismissed, the storied "bandwagon effect."

But, I'm starting to reconsider that.

In addition to Kamala Harris having the smarts, discipline and just plain old human decency to be the next POTUS, it does not diminish her skills to also think she will, especially among young voters, benefit from a Bandwagon Effect.

You see a winner. You want the reflected glory of being on that side.

I'll take it.

Ever-present, however, is that my guard is up against complacency and taking a win for Harris as granted.

I've seen too much. I know to always expect the unexpected.

[quote] Harris reaches 50 percent threshold: #9 Emerson

R241 It's a very real thing. So much so that seasoned pollsters all know that the best election predicting poll question isn't "who do you plan on voting for?" but "who do you think has the best chance of winning?"

And all this is only after less than a month of campaigning. Nowhere to go but up!

r242 Someone in the replies mentions how wild it is that she's jumped from 38% to 51% favorable in a few weeks, a stat that certain trolls here on DL kept using as evidence that she's doomed just last week. Thanks to this unusual circumstance of switching the nominee a hundred days before the election, we have a chance to see just how elastic the electorate really is.

Electing younger, reasonable people will bring the USA back to its former glory.

We’ll eventually get past this awfulness that the Republican minority has foisted upon the country.

R245, it’s also been illuminating to find out that millions and millions of voters just wanted to feel positive toward a candidate, and they feel positive toward Harris whereas they didn’t toward Biden.

GOP pollster Frank Luntz was on CNBC yesterday talking about how he couldn’t find any young female undecided voters for his most recent focus group. “They don’t exist. They’re all Harris now.”

Pennsylvania (F&M College, Aug. 11): Harris 46% (+3), Trump 43%, Kennedy 6% / senate: Casey (D) 48%, McCormick (R) 36% / n=920 RV / MOE=3.8

[quote]GOP pollster Frank Luntz was on CNBC yesterday talking about how he couldn’t find any young female undecided voters for his most recent focus group. “They don’t exist. They’re all Harris now.”

😲🤩

Fuck. It's morning in America. Who'd a thunk?

Rosen up by 18 points???

Fuck.

Im the water I'm a very skinny lady!

And Nevada is such a hard state to poll.

{{{sad trombone}}}

r242, the reason to get rid of the EC.

Trump has nowhere to go to find voters. In other words, he's hit his ceiling.

This is just the honeymoon phase! People only like Harris because of the novelty! When they see her radical left-wing agenda they'll come back to the warm embrace of MAGAtry!

As for the Michigan Senate polling results noted in R239's link, it's well worth noting that the last Republican to win a US Senate seat in Michigan was the one-term Spencer Abraham in 1994. And before him, the last Republican to win a US Senate seat in Michigan was Robert Griffin in 1972 who, following his appointment to the seat in 1966, won election in his own right in 1966. Both 1966 & 1972 were very strong Republican years, the latter with Nixon at the top of the ticket carrying Michigan & 48 other states.

We're in the "hiding news from Hitler in the bunker" phase of his downfall. Well worth the read.

[quote][bold]Republicans Worry as Red-State Polls Look ‘Worse Than They Should’ for Trump[/bold]

[quote]This month, GOP operatives and others close to Donald Trump have grown increasingly nervous over trends they’ve seen in recent private polling data produced by different Republican organizations and conservative allies. “They’re looking worse than they should,” one Republican operative who has seen the internal data tells Rolling Stone. “Donald Trump is not losing Florida or Ohio, but that isn’t what’s concerning … It’s a trend of softening support.”

[quote]The three sources would not allow Rolling Stone to print any of the referenced data pertaining to these solidly red states, or to publicly identify which conservative groups or GOP organs had run the recent surveys.

[quote]There is a sense among various Republican consultants that the poll numbers would not be helpful to party morale or — more optimistically speaking — merely present a snapshot of a Harris 2024 “honeymoon.” Indeed, two of the sources say they personally have not briefed the data or their concerns to Trump yet, fearing it would only upset him.

My fav from Rolling Stone (my italics): “When you address things that voters don’t care about [such as obsessing over Harris’ crowd sizes], they punish you — and Trump’s being punished right now for not staying on message and not addressing issues people care about,” says Frank Luntz, a longtime pollster and conservative Trump critic. “This election was his to lose, and he’s losing it … [italics]And he’s incapable of changing.”[/italics]

Expecting anyone to change at 80 is a fool's errand, the brain at that age simply isn't wired for fundamental change anymore.

THIS THREAD IS GIVING ME LIFE!!!!

r254, and Trump's base has been constricting and shedding ever since Dobbs.

A whole slate of Republican-led polls came out today--all conveniently showing Trump tied with Harris in swing states and Rasmussen showing Trump with a FOUR POINT LEAD nationally. AsfuckingIF.

They're starting to fear for their lives if they don't have something good to show Trump.

I bet his people are keeping some of these polls from Dump. They're afraid of his temper tantrums.

Today 538 has Harris up by 3% nationally and 270 only has her up by 1%. What gives?

Tester is finally up in Montana!! 🥳

Great news, R265! Imagine the Dems winning the trifecta. Republican heads would surely explode.

Critical Tea

Donald McBoing Boing!

The debate can make or break her. She better come prepared. Americans take to Trump’s dumbed down speaking style.

I don't think they can "break" her, Hillary won all the debates against Trump. But yes, no big mistakes. Like not coming across as presidential enough by laughing at Trump's antics too much. That would be my biggest concern.

Tulsi Gabbard is helping the Trump Team in debate prep.

Just saw that on MSNBC.

I hope she got her fee upfront.

Oh yeah, it was Tulsi who landed that nuke on Kamala in the 2019 debates, wasn't it? Makes sense that she's the one prepping Trump, they want (no, NEED) a repeat of that badly.

Tulski, fucking Russian troll cunt.

The latest Emerson Pennsylvania poll showing Trump +1 and Casey only +4 may serve as a reminder that the polling bubble or bump for Harris that has been largely based on exuberance over the “new” candidacy may not carry through until Election Day. It looks like it has looked, that the election will be down to the wire and no clear favorite. If you are a Harris supporter, you’ll be better off treating the election as a toss-up instead of a done deal.

Emmerson is a lagger because they like Tight Races.

[quote]If you are a Harris supporter, you’ll be better off treating the election as a toss-up instead of a done deal.

No sane Democrat treats it as a done deal.

[quote] Emmerson is a lagger because they like Tight Races.

Does Emerson like Tight Holes as well?

Less than three months remain to election day. A lot can happen until then. I take nothing for granted. Even after election day the Trump gang have a lot of bullshit election result denying shenanigans. 2020 was just a warm-up.

[quote] No sane Democrat treats it as a done deal.

We are in agreement that those Democrats who believe it is a done deal are not sane.

Yes, R278, there are many pro-Harris pols who still believe it's Trump's race to lose, so it's wise not to be unduly confident.

Have any rules for the debate been set, like whether or not he can interrupt her?

I read somewhere that the rules will be the same as they were for the Biden-Trump debate back in June.

Emerson has them tied/+1 Trump in PA. Not good.

Kamala is not winning PA. Even Philly has gone MAGA this year. Trump signs everywhere.

It’s going to be a blowout win for Trump in the end. Mark my words.

284 and 285 - Baghdad Bobs

Yeah, sure.

I’m missing posts r283 to r285, so you know the trolls are restless.

R284 There is no way Trump will win the Philly votes.

For 2020: "The final uncertified Philly vote totals show President-elect Joe Biden received 604,175 votes, or 81% of Philly's presidential votes, to Trump's roughly 18% or 132,870 votes."

I love how PA is now a pissing contest.

Just wait till Ohio...

PA is done. Kamala will do better than Biden but she’s going to lose bigly. At the very least she’s not hurting other candidates down the ballot like Biden was.

Oh look, it’s the yard sign troll at r284.

I live in Philly and I have not seen one fucking Dump sign.

[quote] Kamala will do better than Biden but she’s going to lose bigly.

What? Biden won PA.

My friend just started a big new job—a job that he really needs—and has been shocked at how many of the new people he’s working with, even some of the managers, are proudly Trump supporters. I told him even though he needs the job, he needs to keep looking. If for no other reason…politics shouldn’t be discussed at work!

What state, R293?

[quote] Emerson has them tied/+1 Trump in PA. Not good.

Reading the summary of the poll, I see that it states, “Trump leads Harris among Protestant voters 58% to 40%, and among Roman Catholic voters 60% to 39%. Harris leads among atheists and agnostic voters, who break 84% to 13% in her favor, and those with no particular religious affiliation, who support her 56% to 39%.”

Maybe to some degree, it is indeed the Christians versus the atheists. Not a 100%, but there’s a definite lean.

Biden won in 2020. It's unlikely Trump gained any voters in the last 4 years. The only chance for him is if Democrat voters are suppressed. Highly unlikely.

Kentucky, r295.

That makes sense, R297.

R297, Tennessee, Rose.

By November, Repugs will be so disgusted with Amurrika they'll just stay home and not vote.

No, they'll vote. Even the QAnoners I monitor on Facebook for fun who believe Trump is still president and that there won't be an election all voted in the primaries and will vote in November as well. If there's anyone who'll stay home, it'll be on the Dem and independent side.

Vice President Kamala Harris is doing better with Latino voters than President Joe Biden was a few months ago, according to a poll.

The Equis poll shows Harris is leading Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, by 19 points among registered Hispanic and Latino voters in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Harris had 56 percent versus Trump's 37 percent.

...An estimated 36 million Latinos are eligible to vote in the 2024 election, up from 32.3 million in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center.

--Newsweek, August 15

I posted that Equis poll at r193, Newsweek is super slow to report on these things.

Sorry I didn't remember your post R303. I'm going a little stir crazy watching the numbers.

I probably need to not obsess at this point. Back of my mind I'm worried they'll pull a Willie Horton or something. Repubs are so good at playing dirty.

[quote] An estimated 36 million Latinos are eligible to vote in the 2024 election, up from 32.3 million in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center.

11% increase? Is that largely from kids turning 18 in between the elections?

Yes. Their share of the overall population is slowly increasing.

That’s not what happened in the 2021 Georgia run-off elections, R301.

That may make a difference in the Sunbelt states, R302, but less so in the overwhelmingly white Blue Wall states that are so critical.

I read a suggestion somewhere that they're using Tulsi not for coaching, but as a stand-in for Kamala, because she reminds them of her. As a relatively recent turncoat, I guess she has enough of a Dem "stench" on her, which will help Trump prep in advance for the horror of debating a non-white Dem woman.

That would make a lot more sense because Tulsi isn't exactly a master debater, she just had that one good moment in that one debate. She used much the same tactic in the next debate but was shut down by the mods, and her campaign pretty much ended then and there.

New NYT/Siena poll has Harris gaining on Trump in NC, NV, and GA, and actually dominating in AZ (non-paywalled version).

Re: 310

r311 Nice, but also disappointing stuff out of Georgia and Nevada.

R312, bear in mind that (as the NYT stresses) these results show a gain on the Dems' part. This is just a snapshot of a rising trajectory, before the DNC. With luck and skill they may be able to push the numbers higher.

Yes, Kamala's momentum notwithstanding, the race is still very tight. We are not out of the woods.

OK, pollsters, NV Senate is +13Dem.

You be stoopid if you think Harris will not sweep NV as well.

She won’t.

[quote] What? Biden won PA.

She’s a black woman from California, hon. She’s unelectable. People can’t stand her, especially working class Democrats. The shock come election night is going to be hilarious. Democrats will be dumbfounded while everyone else with two brain cells knew this from the beginning.

People are pointing out that this latest batch of Sienna polls is all over the place – Georgia significantly to the right of North Carolina, and Arizona significantly to the left of Nevada. Seems highly sus.

[quote] OK, pollsters, NV Senate is +13Dem.

[quote] You be stoopid if you think Harris will not sweep NV as well.

I hope your theory of the case doesn't apply to my race.

False comparison. Is most of the Montana GOP indicted for Elector Fraud, like in Nevada?

me @ r315

BREAKING: New polling shows Latino voters in Arizona favoring Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by 23 points. This is massive.

And yet, Nevada with a minority majority voting population is somehow +Trump.

Georgia not coming thru for the first black female President would be a travesty.

r322, considering all the voting restrictions GA has put in place, Ohio and Nebraska may make up for Georgia.

I'm taking one for the DL team and watching Trump's speech now in real time on C-Span.

"communist", "super-left liberal", "the whole world laughs at us", "I was running against Biden"

"The American Dream will be back with us", "her price hikes"

"Joe Biden hates her", "Can I go off the teleprompter?"

(He's correctly pronouncing her first name) "I believe she will be easier to beat than him", (some guy behind him had to stifle a yawn)

[quote] I'm taking one for the DL team and watching Trump's speech now in real time on C-Span.

Smooches, and god bless you for the self-inflicted torture.

Thank you Della

You're sweet, r326. You're Welcome.

Trump is sniveling, bitching and whining about Kamala being the candidate.

He's claiming that he took in billions of dollars from China. He's claiming tariffs will hurt other countries.

(The sheeple behind him are painfully aware they're on TV and MUST LOOK ALERT, even though you can see their minds wandering).

"Barrack Hussein Obama is really running the country". "I've approved 3 debates",

Geez, a slug making their way across my driveway is more animated than Trump.

"ABC Fake News", "Who treats me the worst?", "Her best friend runs ABC", "These are phony fake disgusting people that hate our country", "How bad is that guy?"-Walz, "He signed a bill that all young men's bathrooms have to be equipped with a tampon -selling machine."

"Any Jewish person who votes for her or a Democrat has to have their head examined", "It looks like they're going to have riots in Chicago", "She is worse than Crazy Bernie",

"I don't ramble. I'm a very smart guy." (If you're stuck behind Trump, on camera, and have to use the bathroom, Good Luck, if you're seen leaving on camera. better hold it)

"That is the laugh of a crazy person. That's the laugh of a lunatic", "She has been prohibited from laughing."

My will to stick this out is fading......

"We're a failed nation",

He's resorting to videos of Kamala DURING his speech. (I believe this is known as a taking a breather).

"Minneapolis was burning", "Afghaniston, I would have got out" "Victor Orban" "He said re-elect Donald Trump",

(two people in camera range just sat down and they're seated right behind him on his left. You can't see them anymore) He's attempting to impersonate Emmanuel Macron.

"I could tell you stories all day" "I could pick up the phone and stop wars", "They're stupid people" "They're corrupt",

"She's a socialist lunatic", "Kamala you were a horrible Vice President. "Kamala, You're Fired!"

"They've broken our supply chain!"

"I am much better looking than her. I'm a much better looking person than Kamala."

"Is that Sophia Loren"- referring to the Time Magazine cover, "I'm a better-looking person than Kamala"

Oh, thank you r331, and r332.

We'll tag-off.

Trying out "Comrade Kamala."

I don't think I take much more of it either, Della.

HAHAHA! He's praising the conservative majority of the US Supreme Court.

They probably HATE that. "Impartiality and fairness", you know. Good, that's what you get. HAHAHA! He's now praising Aileen Cannon. She, otoh, may not hate that.

That little girl with Heidi braids on the top row has checked out.

Will he be able to avoid making a comment about her looks at the debate? I think he’s going to blurt out that’s she’s ugly and dumb which will can only help her.

I’m surprised that Hueissan is getting credit for running the country today! It was Kamala running it in his last speech. More projection of course since he has been running a shadow operation controlling the Republicans for the last 4 years. He assumes Obama has also calling up Dem leadership with orders.

[quote] I’m surprised that Hueissan is getting credit for running the country today!

Trump is looking back to the past. Those people behind him have checked out.

Seriously, people, He's STILL droning on about himself. If he can't get it together any more than this, I make no apologies by throwing caution to the wind and say Kamala will win decisively.

I base that on what my eyes are seeing from his own voters. They're bored outta their fucking minds.

It’s disheartening that he’s still getting crowds to show up. I know Harris /Walz rallies are in bigger venues etc.

I feel this motherfucker is never going away

Is he still paying his crowds?

Hi, Della!! Thanks

Has anyone taken a poll to see if the public believe that Trump is prettier than Harris.

Did Trump get a Magic Mirror from the Saudis?

[quote] HAHAHA! He's praising the conservative majority of the US Supreme Court. They probably HATE that. "Impartiality and fairness", you know.

Sotomayor and RBG before her reveled in the praise they receive from Democrats for voting the party line, so the conservative wing may be similar and not hate it

r344. You are confusing constitutionality with a party line. False comparison.

Hi Dustin! You're Welcome.

Show me, r344 where or when Obama or Clinton ever did what Trump did at a partisan political rally.

he gave them a life long job.

[quote]"I am much better looking than her. I'm a much better looking person than Kamala."

Well, he does spend more time putting his face on in the morning.

ABC/ Washington Post National Poll

Harris/Walz 51%, Trump/Vance 45%

r349 So she's +6 nationally, just like Hillary in August. I thought it would take until after the convention to close that gap. Hopefully we get a nice convention bump, if those Hamassholes don't ruin it for her.

*Widen the gap, not close it

R350 the “just like Hilary” part is making me very nervous.

I think Harris, Walz and the Dems are more than ready, R352. My favorite piece of new today is that Mike Johnson told House Republicans, in a private session, that the numbers are now ominous for them.

Maybe they should just pray harder then, r353.

Hamassholes

I like it.

New ABC/WaPo poll:

r356 It's 51% Harris and 45% Trump with likely voters.

Favorable/unfavorable from the ABC/WaPo poll:

Harris 45/44

Trump 35/57

That Trump is so under water in his favorable/unfavorable numbers - compared to Harris - makes it very hard for him to win.

I agree. Take his unfavourables, Democratic momentum and 85 days of his insane whining and I think it bodes well. Close but what is hoped for.

Downballot elections are now looking very good for the Democrats in swing states—a good sign for Harris. Hopefully the DNC will bring a boost and the Republicans will keep spinning their wheels.

r360 Yep, that and her rapidly closing the gap with white men is the death knell for him.

Mind the gap.

My friend in The Netherlands just text me to say that the clip of Trump saying he is better looking than Harris was shown on the lunch time news there. He was in his local coffee shop and everyone burst out laughing.

The favorability ratings suggest that a lot of middle of the road Americans are just sick of his BS, find him embarrassing and don't want 4 more years of BS. He's getting in his own way.

r357, are we finally heading into the OUTSIDE THE MARGIN OF ERROR area that pollsters hate.

I notice that once a poll has a margin greater than SIX, nobody mentions the poll CERTAINTY.

[quote][bold]Pennsylvania is slipping from Donald Trump’s grasp[/bold]

[quote]The path to the White House runs through Pennsylvania — America’s largest must-win swing state. Yet Donald Trump’s campaign is so far making no discernible effort to woo its fastest-growing demographic. Numbering roughly 600,000 adults in a state that was settled by margins of less than 100,000 votes in the past two elections, Pennsylvania’s Hispanics are where the votes are.

[quote]“We seem to be committing an unforced error,” said Albert Eisenberg, a Philadelphia-based Republican consultant. “Hispanics could be the deciding factor.”

[quote]“I have never seen a campaign start as early as Biden — usually it would be in September,” said Victor Martinez, owner of Pennsylvania’s largest Spanish-language radio network and the anchor of his own morning show from Allentown, the state’s third-largest city. “What confuses me is why the Trump campaign is not even trying to reach Spanish speakers. As a businessman, I would go bankrupt if I ignored my fastest-growing audience.” Harris has also done a phone-in interview with Martinez in English.

[quote]In contrast to Florida’s Republicans, who had no choice but to embrace Spanish given the state’s non-Anglo character, Pennsylvania’s habits die harder. “Some party officials say to me: ‘America is an English-speaking country. Why would we talk to voters in Spanish?,’” said one frustrated Republican. “I reply, ‘Because we want to win?’”

The Senate forecast is bleak regardless of what happens with the Presidential race. WV is a guaranteed flip to red. That leaves winning both OH and MT for the Dems to squeak a 50/50 Senate (assuming the other polls in NV, AZ, etc are likely). Their best bet is tying these races to being to pass reproductive rights legislation. Even if they do pull off a 50/50 miracle, some Manchin or Sinema asshole will emerge on Team Blue because nature abhors a vacuum.

TX and FL are fool’s gold.

[quote]TX and FL are fool’s gold.

But Dems love that shit. It still hurts and haunts me, thinking about all that money that went up in smoke, trying to unseat the Turtle in Kentucky.

[quote]I have never seen a campaign start as early as Biden

2026 begins November 6th.

The status of the Senate is PERMANENTLY ON THE BALLOT until Democrats have a Super Majority and can start sending Constitutional Amendments to the States.

[quote] "What confuses me is why the Trump campaign is not even trying to reach Spanish speakers. As a businessman, I would go bankrupt if I ignored my fastest-growing audience.”

One of the only policies he can articulate and which stays consistent is the fact that he wants to deport millions of Latinos (not only them, of course, but they are the largest immigrant group by far). Why would he reach out to them?

^ Still, many moronic Hispanic voters will gladly vote for Trump, even though they could get swept up in his mass deportations.

R371 = typical liberal racist jackass who thinks all Hispanics are illegals.

No, shithead at R372, I said Hispanic VOTERS. That means United States citizens of Hispanic ethnicity. Many of them will likely get swept up in Trump's deportations. You think his goon squads will check to see who is a legal US citizen and who isn't? If your last name is Lopez or Martinez, you may be placed on a bus to Mexico.

I wasn't being racist but you are for sure a shithead R372. Now kindly change your tampon and fuck off.

The fear is that Hispanics vote blindly as Hispanic CATHOLICS.

Like the stooges that Republicans put on the Supreme Court.

[quote]The fear is that Hispanics vote blindly as Hispanic CATHOLICS.

Catholics aren't a monolithic voting bloc.

There is a significant MONOLITHIC block WITHIN Catholics, like the Cubans, who vote a straight Republican ticket BLINDLY.

They are also, confusingly, racist.

Speaking of Cafflics, I tried reading this piece earlier today because the headline caught my eye and I even wanted to post it here, but I have no idea what point the author was making.

[quote]”What confuses me is why the Trump campaign is not even trying to reach Spanish speakers. As a businessman, I would go bankrupt if I ignored my fastest-growing audience.”

How many U.S. citizens speak only Spanish and no English? The businessman is confusing the set of Spanish speaking customers, many of whom may be illegals or just legal residents, with the set of Spanish speaking only citizens.

[quote] That Trump is so under water in his favorable/unfavorable numbers - compared to Harris - makes it very hard for him to win.

As I’ve said before, Trump winning will depend on his well his campaign can drive up her unfavorable number. If he loses, a post-mortem will question why they failed to do that, especially with all they have to work with. Their campaign is floundering with no apparent direction.

R373 is just digging a deeper hole for herself. You said what you said.

Most Hispanics are not illegal and hate illegals. There’s no reason for them not to vote Republican. They are conservative Catholics.

R380 You should head back over to Stormfront, toots.

Look at THIS! The Harris Walz energy at The Villages in Florida.

Don't Catholics vote 50/50 Republican/Democrat more or less? There are many Catholics who are liberal and don't follow the anti-abortion dogma.

^ Just researched my own question and Catholics voted 52% for Biden vs $8% for Trump. Obama got 54% of the Catholic vote.

The Trump troll seems to have derailed this thread off the topic of polls. Here's yet another one that puts Harris either above Trump or at least neck and neck.

Why didn't the link load? Here it is again.

Forgive if reposting... Rasmussen numbers. Good for Dems. I thought Rassmussen skewed Republican?

Bob Casey is up by a lot more than 3 points in PA.

R388 It does, and that one certainly is. Those particular ems are much farther ahead than that in every other poll coming out. Bob Casey in particular.

Does RFKjr take votes away from Harris or Dump?

I was listening to Pod Save America, and thought they said he takes votes from Harris. But, that didn’t make sense

Oh please. Only severe crazies would vote for RFK Jr. so that should tell you he'd be taking votes from Dump.

But it's good news if even Rasmussen is showing Dems ahead.

Rashmusshen

Rasmussen also has Trump up 4 nationally.

Has anyone reading this thread been polled?

Nah, I didn't think so.

R395, conservative posters make big corrections over many weeks. It shows they are stable no matter he wrong they are, but will get to the Harris +6 eventually.

R396 That's cause no one in this thread would dream of not turning off all the lights and hiding behind the couch when their doorbell rings and they aren't expecting a doordash or Amazon delivery, let alone answering the phone from an unknown number.

R397 so they cook the books?

I saw a guy on TV lay out the electoral map. It really seems like it all comes down to Pennsylvania.

R399, cook is too severe, they marinate the numbers.

I saw an article on X where they lay out a Democratic landslide. It all comes down to Ohio.

Link please, R402.

Agree R389, Rasmussen appears to retain the GOP skew.

Vance insists these are "fake polls." Dems should take heed, the polls -- and the legitimate media -- have always underestimated Trump's support. Trump received 77 million votes in 2020, that is more votes than any Presidential candidate received prior to 2020. Trump received more votes than Obama.

Polls are meaningless. Voter motivation will be determinative. As 2016 informed, we can NEVER rely on polling to feel secure. It will be a fight and anti-Trump voters need to vote.

I ignore polls. Although I did tell a MAGA PAC caller that there was NO WAY IN HELL I was voting for Trump, and would vote for Harris, so there is that.

When the polls start to swing in favor of Dems/Harris, Rasmussen always swing the other way. This allows Republicans to point to something positive in polling. To properly judge, look at the overall trends and pay attention to how the campaigns are behaving.

R402 LINK! LINK! LINK!

I have to say, I take special pleasure in scrolling through the X comments on the 'Interactive Polls' page and watching all the MAGAs blowing chunks into the wind over "FAKE POLLS!"

r405 And of course, all those polls showing Trump in the lead before Biden dropped out weren't fake. They're only suddenly being faked NOW that he's not doing so well. The GOP will need to purge this Trumpian rhetoric along with Trump if they want to have a future after he loses.

R410, I don't care about what Vance has to say. However, his point seems counterintuitive, as if suggesting that low polling numbers demoralize voters. We saw the opposite in 2016, those low polling numbers sent everyone in the trailer park to the voting booth, and lulled Dems into complacency.

That was 2016, before people knew what Trump was. Biden was leading him all year in the polls in 2020 and that didn't lull Dems into complacency at all. Same story will repeat this year.

Also, success breeds success. You could just as easily say voters will just stay home if they see she has no chance.

R375 You’re absolutely wrong. There sure is a catholic Hispanic voting bloc that’s pro republican.

Proving that poster's point precisely.

New NYT-Siena poll of downballot Sun Belt races:

Arizona Senate

Gallego (D) 51%

Lake (R) 42%

Nevada Senate

Rosen (D) 49%

Brown (R) 40%

NC Governor

Stein (D) 49%

Robinson (R) 39%

[quote]There sure is a catholic Hispanic voting bloc that’s pro republican.

Yes, but it's smaller than the pro-Democratic bloc of Catholic Hispanics.

"Robert Jones from the Public Religion Research Institute told me that he found that 58% of Latino evangelicals (classified as "Hispanic Protestants") voted for Donald Trump in 2020, whereas 67% of Latino Catholics voted for Joe Biden.

According to Pew Research, 70% of Latino evangelicals believe abortion should be illegal, while 54% of Latino Catholics subscribe to the same belief; and 66% of Latino evangelicals oppose same-sex marriages, while only 30% of Latino Catholics oppose them.

Hence, it may be safe to assume that in many ways what has driven the move from Democrat to Republican among some Latino voters is largely Latino evangelicals rather than Latino Catholics."

Since when is North Carolina in the Sun Belt?

Perhaps it's because of climate change?

That's good news from Az. Lake is like Trump. The bigger the gap, the greater the crazy.

Trump still wins electoral college today.

Oh, please, R420. Citing RCP?! I had thought that site had been thoroughly discredited in '22 when its average of polls was so off because they include in their averaging so many inferior, Republican, pollsters.

Neck v Neck congressional polling

That's better than that, R423. None of the three House incumbents have the lead. That's a real problem for them.

I have R420 blocked, so I'm assuming they're a magat mole, but yes, R422, Real Clear Politics is persona non grata here, and anyone citing them should be thoroughly side-eyed.

Yes, please don't bring RCP or Rasmussen in here. It's not a bubble thing, but those two really are egregious. I didn't mention today's Semafor poll either because it's so clearly slanted towards the Dems, it's practically useless.

I have r420 blocked too.

Just the regular comment/reminder for our polls analyses: more important than the "hard number" of a poll, is the trend... 2 plus polls using the same methodology showing a change over time. And the shift/trend in polls capturing how Harris's momentum is unprecedented it's the current "truth"... and this week's influence on the trends is what will be critical. If ten days from now it still only shows Harris ahead by one or two points, that could indicate a problem. If (as conventional wisdom suggests) that she gets a bump to 5-6 points... and then wins the October 10 debate.... it will be very hard, or actually impossible, for Trump to recover.

But, one day at a time. On this day, the tide is with Harris.

[quote] I have [R420] blocked too.

FYI, the electoral map that r420 linked to shows Trump winning Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada, but he really only needs Pennsylvania out of those three to get 270. Pennsylvania will decide the election.

When did PA become so crucial to winning the EC? Can it be pinpointed to a particular presidential cycle?

[quote] When did PA become so crucial to winning the EC? Can it be pinpointed to a particular presidential cycle?

Yes, 2024.

People keep saying that polls are not indicators but measurements, and I like that approach. I'm also liking these measurements.

Trump's measurements are small and getting smaller.

Hey R420 - Try THIS on for size:

Hey 434, you do realize that's an interacive electoral map, where each person can adjust each state - whether blue, red or in between - and the projected outcome changes. This map you posted is not a predictor of the election but essentially a toy.

I detest Trump to be clear, but let's focus on real polls.

If she gets Arizona and North Carolina, which she's up in right now, she doesn't even need PA.

Hey R435, you do realize that I know that’s an interactive electoral map (also the same one posted by R420) and that I’m the person who made the adjustments?

My map is just as valid as the one posted by R420! In other words, it’s a joke.

R420 & R434 I do not see Trump winning Pennsylvania or Arizona.

Pennsylvania, Arizona and Ohio.

Fuck Georgia

Ohio is not happening for the Dems. Deep red shit state.

The Economist model has both Trump and Harris at 50/50 chance, with Trump getting 270 electoral votes to Harris' 268. It's going to be a nail-biter, up until the electors cast their vote, with the possibility of faithless electors in states that allow them.

[quote] I do not see Trump winning Pennsylvania or Arizona.

You must be on crack.

r440, Ohio just passed two statewide Constitutional plebiscites that enshrined abortion into the Ohio Constitution. Just like Nebraska.

The Ohio Women's rights movement and the non racist men and women that it brings with them, is putting Ohio in play.

Ohio is not a Deep Red Shit state, Ohio is a sleeping giant awaking to the effects of Republican gerrymandering.

Ohio is in play.

Both Ohio and Florida are deep red and lost causes for Democrats in 2024.

Keep saying that, r444, if it makes you feel better.

It's unlikely at this point that OH and FL will go blue in November, but to claim that they're deep red and hopeless for Democrats is an exaggeration. Think of GA not too long ago.

And Texas.

Those red states have children that are now of voting age. Don't forget them.

Change is most definitely possible, especially among the young women.

R443, Mike DeWine, the Ohio republican governor, won a landslide reelection in '22. Vance also won his Senate seat that year. After Roe was reversed.

r448 I heard the exact same thing in 2020 and it was still fucking close and none of the red states went to Biden. The problem with young people is they're the least reliable voting block out there. So, while we shouldn't forget them, we also shouldn't be counting our chickens with them in mind either.

Vance seriously underperformed in his OH election.

In part because Vance didn't have the enormous advantage of DeWine's incumbency, R451.

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (RRG, Aug. 14-17): Harris 50%, Trump 42% / n=656 LV / MOE=3.8

Conservative pollster, Biden won this district by 6%.

Treating this election like a nail-biter means ensuring every possible electoral vote.

Nebraska's 2nd District went to Biden in 2020 with its 1 electoral vote, but it was the first time in 12 years a Democrat won there. That means they voted for Obama for his first term but against him and Clinton in the elections after that.

She's well ahead in a poll today.

Virginia (Roanoke College, Aug. 12-16): Harris 47%, Trump 44% / senate: Kaine (D) 49%, Cao (R) 38% / n=691 LV / MOE= 4.5

Biden won it by 10%.

Ohio, polls, red state futures.

As was said above, Vance seriously underperformed as he won with a campaign financed by unlimited dollars from Thiel. The Ohio abortion initiative passed by unexpected margin. Brown will be elected Senator again... likely by 4-5 points or more. I would doubt that Ohio might for blue this election - but like GA, I think it could by 2028. Politics keep transforming... and if Dems can hook significant white working class voters to come back into the Big Tent, FL, KS, NC, OH could be won... MAGA needs to be exposed and crushed for that outcome. It's completely possible that 2024 can start that.

Love your insight r456 🩷

R443, they’ll vote for abortion rights and Trump. Mark my words. Kamala has no shot at winning.

r458 HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

R458 The MAGA unraveling is profound.. though it really shouldn't be surprising.

I was at family event this weekend, staunch MAGA folk in three generations. I was struck how the "disruptive and angry energy" from past years was so diminished. Life, its wounds and progressions, has moved them. They are ready to move on. They HAVE moved on in many respects. Now I hope, in the next four years, the next decade.... the younger generations can figure out ways to care for each other, to be able to speak to and hear each other. There will never be "agreement", but the addition to grievance... on all sides.... can fall away, our hands open, ready for something new.

Crystal Ball? 😄

R459/R460 are going to be really unhappy come election night 2024.

If Texas, Florida or Ohio move to toss up, Donald Trump will lose what is left of his mind

R463 If Mr Trump wins... there will be a peaceful transfer of power (what a concept). If Mr Trump wins, I will not lose my mind at all. It will certainly focus my mind on what I need to do next.

If Mr Trump loses, I am willing to talk or zoom with you and discuss what it means, and how we can work together for our country.

R463 is not only a troll, but a bad, bad troll. They’re posting the same stuff—the same exact posts—on these threads from two different logons. I have them on ignore but did a little digging. They posted this exact post (and others deriding Kamala) from two separate accounts:

“This still sounds like Hillary 2016. Trump will probably still win. DL doesn’t understand the immense hatred people have for Kamala, even among white traditional Democrats.”

The reason I know is this same post shows up on my ignored poster 6 and my ignored poster 7.

R463, you’re busted. And I think your other account is r262, but you’re not worth the effort to find out further.

^btw this is what they do, using multiple logins to make it seem like this place is crawling with Dumpers. The only thing crawling in here is these cockroaches.

Oh give the poor troll a break! He has to have some way to support his family! Think of little Vlad and Svetlana!

[quote] They’re posting the same stuff—the same exact posts—on these threads from two different logons. I have them on ignore but did a little digging. They posted this exact post (and others deriding Kamala) from two separate accounts: “This still sounds like Hillary 2016. Trump will probably still win. DL doesn’t understand the immense hatred people have for Kamala, even among white traditional Democrats.” The reason I know is this same post shows up on my ignored poster 6 and my ignored poster 7.

R466, to verify your claim, I did a Google search using “‘This still sounds like Hillary 2016’ site:datalounge.com”. The search only returned one instance, which is this thread. Are you making stuff up? Why didn’t you include the thread title of the other occurrence? Please provide so that it can be verified.

R469, I have a bunch of posters blocked. All right-wing trolls. Looking at my Ignore list, I can see each blocked poster and their posts on the threads I follow. It shows several identical posts showing up under separate Ignored posters.

Not sure how to prove it, I’ve got these posters blocked, but on my list, two separate ignored posters show that same post. If someone else can explain another way this can happen, I’m open to suggestions. I’ve got r463 blocked, I know they are one of the posters.

^ btw I am open to someone explaining how this could happen r469.

It’s because the trolls just cut and paste their talking points

r470, every reply you see on the Ignored list also shows the thread title it's under. Why are you not providing the second thread title?

I think polls are bullshit, people lie.

But enough people tell the truth. Hence the careful sampling and margin of error.

R473, the post I referred to actually appears on this thread under two different posters.

Very encouraging, R477!

Texas (Univ. of Houston, TSU, Aug. 5-16): Trump 49.5% (-4.9), Harris 44.6% / senate: Cruz 46.6% (+2.1), Allred 44.5% / n=1,365 LV / MOE=2.65

I trust the national party is smart enough to not go down the rabbit hole of investing money in Texas. It's a fool's errand.

R480 That is the opposite of true. If more money was invested in Texas by the DNC, it could have been a blue state by 2020.

And where's all that money supposed to come from? Every dollar invested in Texas is a dollar not invested in actual battleground states that make or break an election.

I feel quite sorry for the battleground states. They'll be bombarded through November.

R483 But that's the point, Texas COULD be a battleground state if democrats ever bothered to give it the time of day. The sheer amount of money and time dedicated to wooing Nevada for a paltry 6 electoral votes, when flipping Texas would ensure democratic administrations for decades to come. Polls are showing Texas with a mere 6 point lead for Trump, and that's with ZERO effort on the dems part. Imagine how that could change with just the tiniest bit of work/resources from the DNC. All data points not to Texas being a deeply red state, but it being a state where democrats don't vote. That's on the DNC.

[quote] Polls are showing Texas with a mere 6 point lead for Trump

The poll linked to at R479 shows him with less than a 5-point lead.

Trump won Texas in '20 by 5.5 points. In other words, it wasn't particularly close. Much better to invest limited funds to hold on to Georgia & flip NC, which Trump won by 1.4 points.

The DNC will have tested if Texas is viable, which even a cursory glance at reality (hello Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton) says it isn't. DL endless fav Beto couldn't do it how many times, even with the power of his skateboard compelling all of Texas. You're on a convention high. If Texas is ever going to be battleground, it's years away. It's Alabama with money.

[quote]Among those likely voters who cast a ballot in the 2020 presidential race for Trump, 94% intend to vote for the former president again in 2024, while 3% intend to vote for Harris and 1% for Kennedy, with 2% remaining undecided. Among those likely voters who cast a ballot in the 2020 presidential race for Biden, 91% intend to vote for Harris in 2024, while 5% intend to vote for Trump, and 1% for Kennedy, with 2% remaining undecided. Among those 2024 likely voters who did not cast a ballot in the 2020 presidential election, 51% intend to vote for Harris, 36% for Trump, and 4% for Kennedy, with 6% undecided.

I’ve seen people this election cycle state that Trump can’t pick up any votes that he didn’t get in 2020. Of course that was always silly. As this Texas poll shows, there are some 2020 Biden voters who will be voting for Trump in 2024, and some Trump voters who will be voting for Harris. It happens that there is switching between the two parties.

It’s noteworthy that she is picking up a majority of new voters, but that may be offset by the number of 2020 Biden voters she’s shedding.

r487 Perfectly put. Also, more money doesn't automatically equal success. You think California's GOP would turn the state blue if a billion dollars suddenly fell in their lap? Fat chance.

*turn it RED, obviously

R490 Harris has a 25% lead in California. Trump has a 5% lead in Texas. How are they even remotely comparable? Trump has roughly the same lead in Texas that Harris has in Wisconsin.

[quote]You think California's GOP would turn the state blue if a billion dollars suddenly fell in their lap?

No, they would wage a 40-year war on the state constitution, own the judges and the CA DoJ.

Then buy up all the local TV stations and voilà, in 40 years, Red Cali.

Hmmmmm...

Because you don't just look at it in the moment. You look at results over time. Wishful thinking isn't strategy.

Kamala will add millions of first time Gen Z voters to her win. Dump will be adding no one, especially no Biden fans.

[quote] Trump won Texas in '20 by 5.5 points. In other words, it wasn't particularly close.

You need to look at the big picture. Romney won TX in 2012 by more than 16 points. Trump won TX in 2016 by 9 points. The Republican lead has been shrinking in that state. As R492 points out, the 2020 margin is about what recent polls give the Dems in WI (and certain other swing states). It may be just as worth investing some funding in TX for the Democrats as it is in blue-leaning states for the Republicans.

R496 et. al. Immigration has changed/will change the politics of states. NC and GA are in play for Democrats, in part, because of domestic and international migration. Musk moving Tesla and Spacelink and X to Texas will help with the shifting political landscape there (not his intention). Californians moving to OR changed that state and is changing AZ.

In states like Texas and Ohio it's more cultural than political. Expecting a noticeable shift in election result by putting in a significant amount of money and time and effort may result in at most one percent for Democrats. Perhaps if they play the long game and they want to focus on Texas and Ohio and maybe Florida best case scenario to have one or two of these states in play by 2040. Personally I don't think it's worth it. The rabid anti-moral, anti-civility and anti-science mentality has taken over during the last 20 years. It will be a very long road uphill.

Unlike Texas, Florida was blue for a long time

I think real Floridians are fed up with DeSatan and his bullshit. It’ s the Cubans, rednecks and transplants from up North looking for their”freedoms” that keep Florida red.

I’m hoping it starts to turn purple, with a win here and there.

[quote] I’m hoping it starts to turn purple, with a win here and there.

What about all the stories people like to post about so many Floridians leaving the state because they are against the political views there? How’s that going to work with your dream?

[quote] Immigration has changed/will change the politics of states.

FYI, the Texas poll showed Trump with a 1 point lead over Harris among Latino voters.

Please note that the poll at R479, which shows Harris 4.9 percentage points behind Trump, was conducted before the DNC (Aug. 5-16).

R502 Exactly right. I will die on this Texas hill because all of the data really does NOT support Texas being a truly red state. It is actually a very blue state with an enormous amount of gerrymandering, voter suppression, and low turnout because Texan dems just keep having it hammered into their heads that it's a red state and there's no point in trying to change it. They get zero attention from the DNC and that is just criminal. It's ludicrous the way that every 4 years, only 6 or 7 states matter to candidates at all and every other state can just get fucked as far as they're concerned. THAT is why we can't seem to get or keep the house/senate majorities we need to actually get shit done in Washington.

I don't think people here are appreciating just how much Texans have been suffering since the Dobbs decision. They have some of the most draconian abortion restrictions in the country and women are dying because of it. Not to mention the absolute mess Abott and Cruz have made of the infrastructure and handling of the power grid failures and disaster recovery. Republicans are on the chopping block, and Texas WILL be a blue state by 2032--you can take that to the bank.

Another takeway from the Aug. 5-16 poll of TX at R479: Allred was behind Cruz by only 2.1 points (44.5% to 46.6%); this was "essentially unchanged" since the last poll in June. A boost for Harris in TX might not win the state for Harris, but it might float Allred over the edge.

I think if after the convention, we see the Harris/Walz team head to Ohio, Florida, or Texas, we KNOW this election is in the bag for them. Because that means their performance internals are telling them they have the juice to spare to get those senate/house seats locked in.

[What about all the stories people like to post about so many Floridians leaving the state because they are against the political views there? How’s that going to work with your dream?]

No need to be nasty. It’s not so easy for most people to move due to employment, kids, taking care of parents etc

The trend is people moving to fit their political bent. Red states will become more red and blue states will become more blue. Governments in those states have an incentive to be more partisan to drive out as many supporters of the opposing party as they can.

I don't know how much Kamala has but they've raised $500 million and I be they'll be raising a lot more. Would I pour a whole boatload of money into Texas? Not yet. But they should be putting some; to help Colin Allred and to make Trump put money here too.

R507 knows nothing about population change and the election changes that accompany them, so she feels quite comfortable declaring a fact our of her own little soft noggin.

As much as I wish I could be as confident about Harris's chances as so many others here seem to be, I just cannot. This is a toss-up race.

I, for one, would be happy to "float" Colin Allred over the edge, r504.

[quote] As much as I wish I could be as confident about Harris's chances as so many others here seem to be, I just cannot. This is a toss-up race.

A risk she faces is that her quick rise in the polls is a bubble, based on exuberance and not on issues and fundamentals. The bubble may well last up through election day and carry her to the White House, or it may pop and her poll numbers recede closer to Biden’s. Some part of the percentage points that Democrats gained is from people who immediately said they will vote for her with no examination of her or her platform. Over the course of two months, some of those may change their mind. It would benefit the Democrats a lot to get those people to vote early and lock in their vote.

[quote] Kamala will add millions of first time Gen Z voters to her win.

Yeah, sure, Jan. They can’t even leave the house because it’s too triggering.

R513, my guess is you haven't left your own house in 20 years if you think that. (But you don't think that, you're just making a defensive, pathetically lame joke.)

Kamala is EXACTLY who will get them to leave the house to vote.

For her, r513!

There’s a former political consultant on YouTube named Sean Brisco who said the problem with Texas is just the cost of the media markets there.

Same with Florida. I guess they have some of the most expensive media markets in the country.

Sean says that the reason campaigns don’t go to Texas is because it’s huge and they can dump that money into winning three states vs just one.

I'm not sure but do you think my pussy stinks?

Get a fucking grip people. Trump/MAGA shitheads are on the run. Suck it up buttercups and DEMOLISH THEM. Full steam ahead.

[quote]Georgia not coming thru for the first black female President would be a travesty.

I see that Trump has apparently forgiven Kemp, saying in a tweet Thursday night he looks forward to working with Kemp to win Georgia.

[quote]I see that Trump has apparently forgiven Kemp, saying in a tweet Thursday night he looks forward to working with Kemp to win Georgia.

Yes, they've mended fences in order to cook up something nefarious for Georgia.

Harris never had to run to the Left during a primary.

She is never tied to the Progressives even though her basic policies are progressive, Child care, EITC, Child tax credits, and the rarely mentioned elder care.

And last night she incorporated the into CENTRIST policies. Because she supports ALL Americans.

Republicans are fleeing the UNSERIOUS Party and Trump.

Kemp thinks Trump is done so he's making nice thinking it will serve his own political future. He doesn't want to piss off MAGA, without having to suck right up to MAGA. I'm sure he's privately hoping Georgia goes definitively either way, so he can steer clear of the election fall out. It's not a bad play, if you're Brian Kemp.

I'm pleased with this.

Convention bump when?

[quote] Convention bump when?

A lot of political professionals think she already got her bump in the the last few weeks.

R522, it's all about where the added/lost support is found. The Electoral College is structurally now in favor of republicans. I don't have much doubt that Harris will receive more votes than Biden would have, I'm just not so sure that, like Hillary, many of those added votes will be cast in non-swing states.

Rasmussen, which I won't link to as everyone freaks out, it showing contradictory numbers that are better for Harris in terms of performance. Officially they're calling them tied. There's a tweet that shows her 48 to his 46 so not sure what's going on. But Rasmussen shows her trending in the right direction and that can't be bad.

Yeah, you can clearly see the trend even in Rasmussen's cooked numbers.

Unless the national polls are showing an outside the margin of error race, I'm more concentrated on the Big Six (or Seven) states.

You should pay attention to the national polls because we need the House and the Senate, otherwise nothing will get done and we'll drown in a red wave two years from now.

Right, R529, but the national polls suffer from the same problem as the Electoral College. Building up huge numbers in blue enclaves isn't going to win us that much.

National poll (FDU, Aug. 17-20): Harris 50%, Trump 43% / n=801 RV / MOE=3.5

538 finally unfroze their prediction page now that she's officially the nominee.

R501 the migration I was referring to that may change Texas results.... was tech workers and others moving from Santa Monica and San Mateo to Austin and San Antonio.

Keep up.

We've been hearing about the techies turning Texas blue for how many cycles now? And btw, this isn't a one-way flow, there are more and more of them returning to California because of the issues associated with living in Austin.

[quote] Yeah, you can clearly see the trend even in Rasmussen's cooked numbers.

Remember, the numbers are only cooked if the results are different than what you want them to be. If the numbers reflect what you want to see, then they are accurate.

[quote] the migration I was referring to that may change Texas results.... was tech workers and others moving from Santa Monica and San Mateo to Austin and San Antonio.

In your first sentence, the word you used was “immigration”, as in “the action of coming to live permanently in a foreign country”. The additional information I posted was clearly marked as response to the context of that sentence and not to other thoughts you had in your paragraph.

I guess we've lost Poll Troll forever.

Can anybody explain why a campaign's internal polls are often (said) to be different than the public polls?

They’re more expensive, R537, and arguably a better measurement of the current state of affairs.

R536 Increasingly the terms are used interchangeably. At least for progressives when they talk about immigration from cental America to the US they often say migration.

Internal polls vs broad public polls: internal polls are paid for by a candidate, which can shape the intent and the result...through the use of methodology that gets at the "product" that the candidate wants. For example many more demographic details are often captured by internal polls, and aligned to that often messaging is tested... what language/topics/themes have what impact on what demographic groups. Also (although it should be true of all polls) I believe internal polls are much more interesting in trends, that is momentum and movement in the results, more than a static snapshot of opinions.

No, R535, the "cooked" quality of Rasmussen can be assessed more objectively than that. Summary linked.

Farleigh Dickinson is out with a new poll, conducted from 8/17-8/20, showing Harris up 7 points among likely voters.

Updated Economist poll

“Harris super PAC founder says public polls are too optimistic”

CHICAGO, Aug 19 (Reuters) - The founder of the main outside spending group backing Kamala Harris' presidential bid says their own opinion polling is less "rosy" than public polls suggest and warned that Democrats face much closer races in key states.

Chauncey McLean, president of Future Forward, a super political action committee, or super PAC, that has raised hundreds of millions of dollars to back Harris in the Nov. 5 election, spoke on Monday during an event hosted by the University of Chicago Institute of Politics.

"Our numbers are much less rosy than what you're seeing in the public," said McLean, who rarely talks publicly.

Future Forward has created a massive polling operation that created and tested some 500 digital and television ads for Biden and some 200 for Harris. They have talked to some 375,000 Americans in the weeks after Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee on July 22. McLean said the majority of Harris' momentum in the immediate aftermath of Biden dropping out was from young voters of color, and that has opened up Sunbelt states such as Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, states which Democrats had largely written off in the final days of the Biden campaign.

He warned that Harris has yet to fully rebuild the Biden coalition of Blacks, Hispanics and young voters that brought him the White House in 2020.

McLean said polling shows the public wants more detailed policy positions from Harris.

He says they don't want "white papers," but they also don't want platitudes. He says they need more concrete examples of how she may differ from Biden and make their lives easier economically. Trump allies have called on Harris to do the same in recent days, hoping to pin her down on controversial issues.

That story was published Monday, so he was interviewed before the convention.

I wonder how they look now:

Actual state of the race should become much clearer a couple of weeks from now when the convention high wears off and the RFK effect is fully baked in. Then it's debate time and we'll be able to see who "won" the debate from those polls. Exciting but also terrifying times, he still could very much pull a comeback out of his ass.

R645, we live in a Reality Show world where the public is subject to 14 day cycles of mini-competitions that are evaluated by polls. We are now entering the post Dem Convention cycle. After that we enter the Pre-Debate cycle, the debate cycle, the post debate cycle and then early voting.

Plus Republicans have their last budget negotiation with Biden before Insurrection V2.0 on Nov 6th.

r546 Don't forget the possible Trump sentencing cycle, and the October Surprise cycle as well.

Yeah, just wait til the thugs try to shut down the government again to prevent early voting or something equally as stupid (you think the freedumb carcass knows that states are in charge of elections? I don’t)

Nate Silver:

Today's update.

We are already seeing a convention bounce for Harris, and this is from data BEFORE her speech last night.

I am truly hoping, and so far I’m seeing confirmation of it, that Harris lowers the hammer at the debate and doesn’t take the high road approach that Hillary did. I know Hillary’s handlers wanted the juxtaposition of Hillary (sane, intelligent) and Dump (nut) to be apparent, since they were worried about her appearing too strident, but all people really saw was a bland Hillary. Btw, I thought she won all three debates, but most people don’t even listen to them.

They will have to figure out a way to do it and at the same time, rebut Dump’s personal attacks, which I’m sure he will make in response.

Debates only move the needle if the Dem candidate flops. Hillary won all three, while Biden was weird at one and had to drop out. Meanwhile, Trump is just being Trump throughout and no one bats an eye.

FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average looks very hopeful for Harris. A continued rise, steady, week to week. She’s +3.6% over Trump as of now, Saturday morning Aug 24.

It all comes down to the battleground states, of course, but they have tended to move in concert with the movement in the national.

Voters are so strange that Harris hammering Trump in a debate may even redound to his benefit.

Debates don’t matter except for the appearance and vibe. Hillary filleted Trump verbally, but his creepy stalking behind her established him as a tough guy who thrilled the Deplorables. Trump’s aggressiveness hurt him Biden, who was unfazed and swatted him off.

Kamala only has to hold her own and let this raving, aging freak expose his diminished self. He is not Trump 2016.

"Who does that nasty black lady poncing on our former president think she is?"

r553 I could easily see something like that going through the minds of The Great Unwashed as they're watching the debate.

Yeah, but r555, they're all voting for him already.

R556, Biden's secret sauce was peeling off just enough older whites/non-college educated whites from Trump's '16 blue wall coalition, so don't be so sure that this cohort is not still up for grabs.

What r551 said

So this is my dream. At the debate, he starts his background stalking again, like he did to Clinton.

Harris stops and asks: Is there something wrong?

And he says no.

So she says: Do you have to go to the bathroom?

And stunned, he says no.

So she says: Then you go back to your place and wait politely until it's your turn to talk.

And if he refuses, she turns to the moderator and says: Do you want to do anything about this? Maybe his campaign team wants to talk to him, because he's making a damn fool of himself. Again. My fellow Americans, I've tried. So I'm just going to continue with my answers and you can decide what to do about him come November. (resumes answer.)

They're not doing those townhall-style debates again, both candidates will be at their podium at all times.

Thanks, R560. I'm sure that will keep Donald Trump fixed in place if he decides to do others. Also, see speed limit signs.

I wonder if they'll shake hands at the start of the debate. Biden and Trump did not greet each other. If it were me, I wouldn't want to touch him and I would immediately douse myself in hand sanitizer. I could see him deliberately digging in his diaper beforehand and having poop on his tiny fingers. 🤮

I think Biden was spared due to COVID restrictions

No, Hillary and Trump didn't shake hands either.

Okay, I just checked again and I was wrong – they shook hands for the first and the second debate, but not for the third. I recall that making the news at the time as well. Something had fundamentally changed by that point.

Kamala is a horrible debater. We saw that in 2020. The border will end her. All Trump has to do is bring that up repeatedly. Americans hate her and the border and food prices have them outraged.

[quote] Don't forget the possible Trump sentencing cycle

Welp.

I meant the NYC case, we all know those other cases won't be a factor in the election.

R566 Absolutely! That's why she's 4 points ahead now, even before the debate! "Americans" hate her!

[quote]Kamala is a horrible debater. We saw that in 2020.

2020, when she opened a can of whoop-ass on Mike Pence and his pet housefly?

[quote]Americans hate her

Yes, we've been hearing you say that since July 21, and we're still waiting for some evidence.

Good lord, r566, you and your sock puppets have their heads up their asses. If you’re trying to sway us, you’re doing a piss-poor job.

R567, Smith’s actions have no bearing on Judge Marchan’s sentencing in the NY case.

R566, are you a parody account? You’re hilarious and hilariously wrong.

All she has to say is "I'm not shaking hands with a rapist".

Looks like this thread maxes out soon.. when it does, whoever starts a sequel, thank you in advance!

Lots of updates to come in the next several weeks. I don’t like the look of Pennsylvania so far but there’s reason to stay hopeful, and Wisc/Mich look great.

New thread link below per request

PA is Trump Country.

Oh shit, I just made a part 2 without seeing yours R576

r575, common courtesy at DL requires that you ask THE ORIGINAL OP to start a next thread.

r576 jumped the gun and started another thread.

r576 started another thread because he is the OP.

The protocol prevents sockpuppets from continuing threads or derailing threads.

But now we have unnecessary duplicate and confusing threads.

If, however, a successor thread is not created at R 590, then anyone can continue a thread.

That way, a monitor does not have to lecture.

Fuck off.

R567, MAGA Merrick Garland strikes again.

Poll Troll EA.

I miss Poll Troll so much. I am hoping he got sick of us, rather than something bad has happened to him. He's a DL stalwart.

Peppa Pig.

No one can tell, I just look like I had a good night's sleep!

I hate to burst all y'alls bubbles, but PollTroll was mafacking Teacake all along.

Well, I screwed the pooch on that one. Apologies.

Well, which thread is the actual second part now? I don't like this one bit, I'm so confused, I just want things to go back to the way they were before this split occurred.

r580

r580

Il Gingio.

r580

r580

Don't apologize, R587. The thread started almost twenty days ago. This is just the festering of one sad shut in. I started the first next thread. I couldn't care less which one anybody uses. Fussing about arcane rules is pathetic.

Domicakes.

Rat-Faced Cunt

Small Cat

Wuud

Woobie