US Senate 2026 thread

No

DailyKos published a good, honestly pessimistic outlook on it back in February. Here’s the detail:

Only the House is really possible for Dems in 26..

People like Dick Durbin know what’s going to happen and he doesn’t want to spend what could be another six years in the minority.

Who will win the Senate in the midterms? The answers to these 5 questions could tell you.

The Senate map for 2026 is almost impossible for Democrats.

No and no, OP.

Thread closed.

If Ann Selzer hadn't retired, I'm sure she could have produced a poll showing Joni Ernst or a replacement GOP candidate likely to be defeated. That would have given some hope to Democrats until the actual election returns came in.

Ann Selzer had a stellar career as an expert Iowa pollster. Unfortunately, she had the misfortune to conclude her career with a single bad poll.

I'm sure Murkowski has an agonizing choice to make!

The 5 Senate seats most likely to flip

John Cornyn "retires," and Ken Paxton wins.

As Appropriations chair, Susan Collins has the opportunity to bring some pork home to Maine next year in time for the election.

Scott Brown wins New Hampshire

New Hampshire is not flipping in a midterm election that promises to be favorable to Democrats.

If Mamdani wins in New York, will that hurt the Democrats particularly in the House?

Will Jon Ossoff lose his Senate seat?

[quote] If Mamdani wins in New York, will that hurt the Democrats particularly in the House?

Undoubtedly.

[quote] Will Jon Ossoff lose his Senate seat?

He got a huge break when Kemp elected not to run, but not having Warnock on the ticket with him could pose problems.

R15 I disagree. Brown is a moderate Republican, I think he will win.

When he had greater moderate bona fides, R18, Scott Brown lost his 2014 Senate bid in New Hampshire in a very favorable year for republicans. He's become more MAGAt in the intervening years.

[quote]When he had greater moderate bona fides, [R18], Scott Brown lost his 2014 Senate bid in New Hampshire in a very favorable year for republicans.

It was still too soon to run for senator in New Hampshire when he had just lost trying to win reelection in Massachusetts (in 2012). If you're going to switch states, you need to allow more than two years in between. Still, he got 48%.

It didn't hurt carpetbagger Hillary in 2000.

Hillary ran for senator in only one state, New York.

But she was from Arkansas, by way of Illinois. Is there a larger sample size than Scott Brown for you proposition?

November 2026 is still a lifetime away. By then, an overfunded ICE will be flexing its power. The economy may be in recession, which will lead many to wonder why we have billions to hunt down and lock up immigrants. Tariffs are likely to fuel inflation. Trump is going to be even older and erratic and unhealthy, if he’s still around. Just as the 2010 midterms changed the political landscape in ways no one expected, 2026 may do the same.

Or not. The economy may hold together and the GOP may continue to convince voters that trans trans trans is scarier than accepting permanent, worsening serfdom.

I've been saying this for a while, but nobody wants to believe me. Bill Cassidy is going to lose in Louisiana. The right hates him for voting to convict Trump in his Jan. 16 impeachment, and the left hates him for all of his other votes. Plus there's talk that our popular Democratic former governor, John Bel Edwards might run against him.

[quote] Plus there's talk that our popular Democratic former governor, John Bel Edwards might run against him.

He might want to start with consulting us first before running.

Never place your hopes in the hands of southern voters, R25. The far-right stranglehold on those states is heavily entrenched.

Especially in national races. Gubernatorial races can be more inviting.

Taking the majority in the House at the very least is important to rein in Trump. I think by January 2027 it will be too late though to undo any of Trump's damage to the country..

My prediction…if they can’t find a way to torpedo the midterms, we’re going to fucking crush the miserable motherfuckers in House and Senate. I don’t give a damn how impossible the Senate looks now.

It's amusing to think that there are those who think that the election will not be rigged.

R32, such lovely ankles you have. It’s amusing that you think you will be around to rig jackshit.

The chances of flipping North Carolina just got a little better.

The Left is just too unpopular now and Trump isn’t unpopular enough. It’s going to be a long time before Democrats will again. Too much in-fighting and extremism.

*win

Republicans will be at war with themselves in the post-Trump era, R34. Only Trump can mobilize a winning nationwide coalition.

Democrats will have major wins this fall in Virginia and New Jersey. Spanberger and Sherrill have a shared history, and there aren’t many other elections this fall, so their wins will be a great feel good story for Democrats. God knows if winning in 26 or 28 will even matter after all of this destruction, but hope springs eternal.

[quote] Democrats will have major wins this fall in Virginia

Yes, Virginia looks very promising.

We will have to defer our dreams of a senator Lara Trump.

[quote]We will have to defer our dreams of a senator Lara Trump.

That's great news. Americans have been patiently waiting for her next music video to drop, so now she'll have time to focus on that.

This thread concerns me, OP.

Lara Trump elected to stay at Fox, where all the power lies, than to demean herself by sitting in the Senate. Maybe she's waiting instead for a Cabinet appointment.

When Republicans dumbed down history and education, they hid the way that Republicans took control of our government: through the Senate.

The Supreme Court was corrupted through the Senate.

The Senate was corrupted through the Republican Party.

The way to take back our government is through the Senate.

No, but they'll chip away at it. Probably a gain of one or two at the most.

North Carolina - Leans Dem now, with Cooper (the D who's never lost a race) versus some MAGA hack who's never run for office and can't even tell people how old he actually is.

Maine - Would be winnable in any other year, but there's no viable Democrat to take on Susan Collins. The closest they're coming is Governor Mills, who's 300 years old and not interested in a six-year term. But longtime Senate incumbents have been knocked off by anonymous rando's in the past, so we'll see.

Michigan - Stays Dem. It'll be between Haley "Dollface" Stevens and Mallory McMorrow.

New Hampshire - Get ready to elect your first big-butt fag senator, Granite Staters! Chris Pappas is on a roll!

Georgia - Ossoff will hang on, thanks to his outstanding fundraising and lack of a statewide opponent.

Iowa - Joni Ernst has big bulldyke energy, and even if she calls it quits, the seat will stay red with TV anchor-bimbo Ashley Hinson primed to run.

Minnesota - Staying Blue. C'mon.

Texas - That wonky-eyed pervert Ken Paxton fucks anything that moves, including his own party. But he's likely to win the primary, and will probably win by a hair over dull-as-dishwater Democrat Colin Allred.

I have a concern over Ossoff running without Warnock also on the ballot, R44, but I can't find fault with any of your other assessments. And I agree the Senate will not flip.

A supermajority in the Senate HAS to be the Campaign Message for Democrats.

^Oy veh.

r43 Way oversimplified. The right-wing takeover started with local things like school boards and town councils.

Ossoff will win reelection because Brian Kemp decided not to run.

Biden & Ossoff won in '20, both benefitting from the presence of Warnock on the ballot. I don't think we can take Ossoff's reelection as a given without Warnock also running.

Democrats need to take back state legislatures before the next Census and redistricting.

It's not sexy, but it's a lot more influential. And a lot cheaper, state by state.

De Santis will run for Rubio's seat

[quote] De Santis will run for Rubio's seat

No, he's nor running against his own appointee, who was not a caretaker choice.

Sherrod Brown has decided to run for the Senate, not for governor.

They’re gonna trot out the wife Sherrod Brown abused. Expect them to play dirty.

Brown will have the advantage of running without Trump at the head of the ticket; he'll have the disadvantage of not having the power of incumbency.

R55 Years ago, one of those James O'Keefe assholes tried to catch Connie Schultz in a sex affair with Sherrod Brown. They called her and said "Listen up, cow! We've got pitchers of you smoochin' on Senator Brown! Give us a statement or we're going to to the press!"

And she said "I hope you got good shots. He's my husband, and I smooch the hell out of that face!"

Idiots.

As I suspected, Brown will be the underdog in Ohio.

[quote]An Emerson College survey also showed Vivek Ramaswamy with strong leads over both potential Democratic candidates ahead of the 2026 gubernatorial race.

Jesus fucking Christ.

C'mon, it IS Ohio.

[quote] Brown will have the advantage of running without Trump at the head of the ticket; he'll have the disadvantage of not having the power of incumbency.

That, and the big disadvantage that he’s running in a solidly red state.

That, too, R61. But I was giving lip service to his electoral history, including winning - as an incumbent in 2018 when Ohio was already solidly red. And Trump wasn't on the ballot.

2026 will be interesting as it will spark the beginning of Poor MAGAs realizing that they are not Trump's MAGAS.

Another thing that we have learned is that we do not have two US Senators but that ALL Senators affect ALL States.

In 2026 these states do NOT have a US Senator up for reelection. :

Arizona, California, Connecticut, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Utah, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin.

If you live in one of these states, it is time to ADOPT and DONATE to a Democratic Candidate for Senate in a RED STATE.

[quote] If you live in one of these states, it is time to ADOPT and DONATE to a Democratic Candidate for Senate in a RED STATE.

Unless Paxton wins the primary in Texas, I wouldn't recommend this posture wholesale (unless you have money to burn). Better to concentrate on the swing state races.

What races do you recommend sending money to, r64, if you live in a state without a Senate race in 2026.

Georgia, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire & North Carolina. Maybe Iowa & Nebraska. And as I noted, Texas, if Paxton beats Cornyn.

Good suggestions.

Do you have a hate list that you would send money to, just to send money to? I'm sending money to the Democrat who is running against asshole Markywayne Mullin in Oklahoma. America needs to get rid of every Pentecostal Businessman in the Senate.

Male+Pentecostal+Business Degree= Plantation Owner Klansman.

R65 Give to national orgs, and let their experts send it where it's most needed. Give to the DSCC, EMILY's List, the Gay and Lesbian Victory Fund, etc.

Looks like Joni ("We are all going to die") Ernst won't be facing the voters next year.

Iowa is a swing state???

She’s wearing a wig, right?

Joni has shamed herself in front of her electorate. Her vote for Hegseth was the last straw for any dignity she had. She put party over Constitution and Oaths. Sad.

Joni saw what happened in Iowa earlier this week where the Democrat beat the pants off the Repug in a heavily red state senate district. Her own polling probably didn’t look too good either.

[quote] Iowa is a swing state???

It's clearly not, but with a strong Democrat, Rob Sand, running for governor, at the top of the ticket, no Trump on the ticket, no incumbent in the race & it being, hopefully, a potentially less than ideal year for Republicans, the Democrats might have a chance of winning.

They won't retake the Senate but isn't Collins pretty vulnerable right now? My friends in Maine say she's mega-unpopular at this point, many who previously voted for her will refuse to do so again. She's alienated a lot of the Independent base that put her in power.

I wouldn't bet against Collins. She was consistently trailing in the polls by big margins in 2020, yet won comfortably, even with a losing Trump at the top of the ticket.

I bet this time is different. Who is running against her?

Trump is turning Congress into chumps. i bet lots of incumbents get voted out.

Joni “Sa-wee, here piggy piggy!” Ernst was attackable in a general. Her resigning likely guarantees republicans keep that seat.

The party's trying to recruit 77-year old governor Janet Mills to run against Collins.

[quote] Joni has shamed herself in front of her electorate. Her vote for Hegseth was the last straw for any dignity she had. She put party over Constitution and Oaths. Sad.

Unfortunately the majority of Americans don’t give a shit. People have simply tuned out.

Joni is quitting the Senate to return to working at the Hardee's biscuit line.

HA HA, bitch! Trump ruined your career, just like everything else he touches-it turns to shit.

One would hope that those not running for reelection would be able to grow a spine for the duration of their terms. But they may live in mortal fear of the MAGA goons.

[quote] Despite the president’s slipping approval ratings, Democrats are still met with a challenging Senate map heading into 2026. Capturing Ernst’s seat is a longshot bid for Democrats — President Donald Trump carried the state by 13 points last year — and there are other states the party has better odds in.

[quote] Top targets include GOP Sen. Thom Tillis’ open seat in North Carolina, and unseating Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

Janet Mills needs to step out of the way and let Graham Platner run against Susan Collins. For one thing, he's much better looking.

GA Gov Brian Kemp is pushing football coach Derek Dooley for Senate because he knows no GOP congressman can win the state:

Great, another football coach in the Senate, to replace the departing Tuberville. Is Herschel Walker not available?

Derek Dooley's mother lost a bid for the state House of Representatives, and even Herschel Walker (deified in Georgia) took an L. Senator Ossoff likes to send rather thin prefab emails about all he is doing. Honestly, some clown like Mike Collins is the GOP's best bet.

I worry about Ossoff's chances without Warnock also on the ballot, as he was when Ossoff was elected to the Senate.

I really think Susan Collins was on the ropes in 2020, until the final weeks of the campaign when she flooded the airwaves with a series of ads featuring a well-known recently retired TV sports guy, like the one attached here. These ads really turned things around for her. I hope Mainers don't fall for this happy horseshit again.

[quote] Joni “Sa-wee, here piggy piggy!” Ernst was attackable in a general. Her resigning likely guarantees republicans keep that seat.

Don't agree. Iowans are Midwesterners not Southerners -- i.e. not as dumb. Trump is killing Iowa right now.I think her seat is competitive.

Trump won Iowa by a 13.2 margin, only slightly less than his 13.7 margin in Texas. Any Democrat will be a considerable longshot to win this open seat.

Iowa just broke the thug supermajority in the Iowa Senate.

The Dem had a TWENTY POINT SWING.

So it’s not impossible. It’s doable with the right candidate.

I never like to be uncharitable, but she’s a low class piece of shit. And she’s an ugly cunt with terrible toupees.

We’re all gonna die, as she says. Here’s hoping death comes soon, slow and painful for this dumb hillbilly gash.

[quote] The Dem had a TWENTY POINT SWING.

Democrats were running the table in these special elections in the run up to the '24 election, so let's not overread their meaning.

How soon before Trump, the sudden champion of ethics, calls out Ken Paxton?

I like how this always shows up:

[quote]Any Democrat will be a considerable long shot to win this open seat.

They said that about Republicans before Reagan.

We Democrats do not the luxury of a 50-year set-up.

R95 A truth that "we" don't fully comprehend: Trump pulls in voters. MAGA without Trump is much, much weaker. Most "progressive Democratic policies" have more popular support than opposition. Most Americans understand the MAGA folk are nuts... they know Trump is nuts but vote for him anyway. Not so much for the non-Tump MAGA.

Mid-terms election - if it's fair (highly problematic) Dems will win big in the house. I also predict Dems win the senate with a series of unexpected victories: Maine, North Carolina... and I predict Nebraska (Independent), Iowa (bye Joni) and Ohio (that gravely voice old fart)... possibly adding Kentucky. Ossoff survives.

You lost me, R98, when you included the possibility of Kentucky going blue. And Nebraska, Iowa & Ohio are only a little less fantastical. And as far as the Democrats winning big in the House, it seems to me that, with extreme gerrymandering, that may no longer be a real possibility for either party. Witness '22, when the predicted red tsunami didn't materialize, even with Republicans taking back the House.

It's okay to be hopeful and positive, then work to help these people win R99. We don't have to be 100% correct in our predictions on an anonymous board.

Yeah, R100, but I prefer my optimism to be leavened with some reality. But you do you.

Murkowski will run again.

Ernst will run again.

Collins will run again.

They will win again.

Well, we already know that Ernst is not running. And Murkowski's seat is not up until '28 but she's already drawn a challenger in the governor. As I've long maintained, Murkowski, who voted to convict Trump in '21, is the absolute best we're gonna get out of Alaska. Just as Joe Manchin was the best we were ever gonna do in West Buggtussle. That's just reality.

Bernie Sanders has weighed in on the Maine Senate race on the side of Graham Platner.

R102 = Idiot.

R102 = MAGAT Troll.

Can a Populist Oyster Farmer End Susan Collins’s Career?

The Bernie Sanders and Graham Platner Labor Day rally was moved from the 1800 seat Portland city hall auditorium to an 8000 seat arena.

Would a primary defeated John Cornyn pull a Lieberman, a Murkowski, a Cuomo, & run as an independent in the general, likely leading to a Democratic pick-up?

R108 And Sara Gideon sold out arenas, too. It didn't translate to victory.

R107 he went on manu raju and all manu did was ask him if he would drop out if janet mills runs in ten different ways.

To your point, R110, George McGovern spoke to massive crowds at the end of his '72 campaign, which saw him losing 49 states to Nixon.

R111 Janet Mills isn't running. She's 77 goddamn years old, and she's had all this time to announce a run and hoover up a shitload of cash. She's already won statewide twice, and would clear the field as soon as she entered. If she's not in the water yet, it's because she ain't gonna swim. But she's still "weighing her options," just like Kamala did all year, which tells you all you need to know.

Politicians don't wait to make these announcements. They make them quickly, eagerly, with all the fervor of a social neurotic with a compulsive need to be loved by strangers. Look how many desperate assholes run for president every cycle. Look how many perennial candidates run and stay running long for as long as possible. It's pathological, and it's a core function of fundraising and media buzz. You get in the race as soon as you can, for as long as you can. And Mills is napping her way through this primary, meaning the crafty crone isn't running but she still wants to huff the fumes of media attention that come from being a "maybe candidate."

R98: while there's a lot of focus on Murkowski '28, Sullivan up next year isn't doing so hot himself ...

Sorry about the link, but the story is available at PPP Polling.

r107, yes he can if he opens her old clam with force, severs her adductor muscle and slurps her down with flair.

It wouldn’t shock me if Congress stays in GOP hands. The country is fucked.

I agree, R117. The Senate is at best a longshot. And even if Newsom's successful in California, the GOP's going to win the redistricting war & there are an ever-decreasing number of competitive House seats.

The problem with red state gerrymandering is that there’s only so much blood you can get. The thugs have gerrymandered the red states to hell and back, so any further changes risks them getting kicked in the teeth and losing seats they would have held.

I am waiting for a shift in Poor MAGA.

Once they lose SNAP, Medicaid and Trump comes for Medicare and Social Security, I think that they will start burning their Trump flags en masse.

R119 Gets his political advice from the law firm of Bartles and Jaymes.

Senate seats aren't gerrymandered.

[quote] The problem with red state gerrymandering is that there’s only so much blood you can get.

But there's now more opportunity to draw blood in the red states. Ohio has a 10-5 breakdown & Florida's is 20-8. Among the blue states, Illinois is already pretty gerrymandered, with a 14-3 Democratic advantage. Maryland's 8-person delegation only includes one Republican. And all of Massachusetts's 9-member delegation are Democrats. NYS has a constitutional prohibition which precludes it from getting in on the action until after the midterms.

It'll be years before the Dems manage to erase memories of the myriad stupid decisions they made. Until then, fasten your seatbelts.

Massachusetts delegation is all Dem due to overwhelming support for that party uniformly throughout the state, and not because of gerrymandering.

There is some decent support for Trump and Repubs in central and Western MA, but they are far outnumbered by lefty voters by 2 to 1 in most parts. Shifting the district boundaries wouldn't change anything there, and I suspect as well in Maryland and probably IL, where Chicago and NE Illinois (where 75% of the state population dwells) is overwhelmingly Dem.

Agreed, R124. The Times had a recent article making that point in response to Trump singling out that particular delegation as unfair. But it also means that we cannot look to Massachusetts for action in this gerrymandering war.

r122, they are turning solid red districts into competitive districts in the extreme that Republicans do not leave Trump only a little.

For a guy who won by 1.5%, a little shift in his Poor MAGA base will be catastrophic.

I'll believe it when I see it, R126. Trump continues to have overwhelming support among his base.

He does not know how to keep Poor MAGA apart from rich people.

Ernst just announced she’s not running again.

R129 Joni announced that days ago, via leaks.

James Talarico is running for Senate in Texas.

A perfect candidate when White racists will not vote for a black man but will vote for a white guy.

The Biden Strategy.

It's the reason that Moscow Ron was reelected to the Senate in Wisconsin.

Democrats need to keep running milquetoast white guys. Amerikkka is not ready for women and people of color. Maybe someday but not now, we have to win back the levers of power.

[quote] It's the reason that Moscow Ron was reelected to the Senate in Wisconsin.

I remember some anti-Johnson forces in Wisconsin warning that Barnes was the only Democrat Johnson could beat. Alas, their voices were ignored.

r134, I hope Malcolm Kenyatta gives it a rest, as well.

Mr Kenyatta does not sell in western PA

[quote]Democrats need to keep running milquetoast white guys. Amerikkka is not ready for women and people of color. Maybe someday but not now, we have to win back the levers of power.

No matter how hard Democrats try to cater to racists who can't accept change or minorities and women running for office, the Republicans will go lower and they will win that demographic yet again. The "they're not ready" narrative, if played wrong, could backfire on Democrats, who still need to turn out women and minorities in high numbers to win a presidential election, even if you nominate the milquetoast White guy.

[quote] No matter how hard Democrats try to cater to racists who can't accept change or minorities and women running for office, the Republicans will go lower and they will win that demographic yet again.

Yes, it's true the Democrats will not be winning the white male demographic again, but they need to make some inroads if they want to win a national election. Biden did, Hillary & Harris did not.

We still have over a year until the midterms.

How long until the primaries?

For the open Illinois Senate seat, R138, the primary is March 17.

Are there earlier Senate Primaries?

Your answer lies herein, R140.

Thank you very much r141, listed alphabetical AND chronological.

[quote] Amerikkka is not ready for women and people of color. Maybe someday but not now, we have to win back the levers of power.

Americans voted for a Black president so what's happening has nothing to do with skin color and everything to do with policy.

James Talarico is interesting (and a cutie)

[quote]Trump continues to have overwhelming support among his base.

According to the YouGov/Economist polls, the percentage of voters who "strongly approve" of Trump (as opposed to "somewhat approve") is down from 34% in January to 24% now. Even some of his base isn't that happy with him, apparently.

A Gallup poll from the last week showed Trump still had 92% support among self-identified Republicans.

R146 His overall approval is 40% or less. He's losing Independents rapidly. He's starting to lose the Pod Bro demographic. He's cratered in the Latino demographic that helped him win in 2024. There is no way he can win the midterms if there are fair and free elections. There is no way there will be fair and free elections.

That's where we are.

[quote] A Gallup poll from the last week showed Trump still had 92% support among self-identified Republicans.

Republicans are about 25% of the population in most polls, so 90% of Repugs is about 22% of the total population.

[quote] His overall approval is 40% or less.

As I've noted before, the only Trump-era poll to which I find credible is the AtlasIntel poll, which, alone, was spot-on in the last three presidential races, including finding the race much closer in the Blue Wall states in 2020 than the consensus of other polls. Although they haven't released a poll since July, that poll showed Trump holding steady from their June findings at about 44%, more than what many others were then finding. I'm waiting on their next poll to see if they're finding any slippage in support.

No. They will magically gain seats.

People will accept it. Big Brother is on, and it's football time!

Wait until they pay the new tariff prices.

The idiots in Arkansas already are, r151, and they’re begging for “government handouts”

R149 The July AtlasIntel poll had disapproval at 55% That's significant. Underwater by 10 points won't win a midterm election... if elections are fair and free. They won't be. The American Democratic Republic is being zipped up tight in a body bag.

R153, I’m not so much worried about winning a free & unencumbered midterms - a big caveat - as I am this country until January 2027. And I don’t believe there is any hope that elected republicans will move off from their complete support of Trump until his polling universally plummets. A 44% approval rating is pretty good by Trump standards.

Between Epstein and the anti-vax nonsense, R's on Capitol Hill are seeing the 2026 danger ahead.