US Senate 2026 thread

No

DailyKos published a good, honestly pessimistic outlook on it back in February. Here’s the detail:

Only the House is really possible for Dems in 26..

People like Dick Durbin know what’s going to happen and he doesn’t want to spend what could be another six years in the minority.

Who will win the Senate in the midterms? The answers to these 5 questions could tell you.

The Senate map for 2026 is almost impossible for Democrats.

No and no, OP.

Thread closed.

If Ann Selzer hadn't retired, I'm sure she could have produced a poll showing Joni Ernst or a replacement GOP candidate likely to be defeated. That would have given some hope to Democrats until the actual election returns came in.

Ann Selzer had a stellar career as an expert Iowa pollster. Unfortunately, she had the misfortune to conclude her career with a single bad poll.

I'm sure Murkowski has an agonizing choice to make!

The 5 Senate seats most likely to flip

John Cornyn "retires," and Ken Paxton wins.

As Appropriations chair, Susan Collins has the opportunity to bring some pork home to Maine next year in time for the election.

Scott Brown wins New Hampshire

New Hampshire is not flipping in a midterm election that promises to be favorable to Democrats.

If Mamdani wins in New York, will that hurt the Democrats particularly in the House?

Will Jon Ossoff lose his Senate seat?

[quote] If Mamdani wins in New York, will that hurt the Democrats particularly in the House?

Undoubtedly.

[quote] Will Jon Ossoff lose his Senate seat?

He got a huge break when Kemp elected not to run, but not having Warnock on the ticket with him could pose problems.

R15 I disagree. Brown is a moderate Republican, I think he will win.

When he had greater moderate bona fides, R18, Scott Brown lost his 2014 Senate bid in New Hampshire in a very favorable year for republicans. He's become more MAGAt in the intervening years.

[quote]When he had greater moderate bona fides, [R18], Scott Brown lost his 2014 Senate bid in New Hampshire in a very favorable year for republicans.

It was still too soon to run for senator in New Hampshire when he had just lost trying to win reelection in Massachusetts (in 2012). If you're going to switch states, you need to allow more than two years in between. Still, he got 48%.

It didn't hurt carpetbagger Hillary in 2000.

Hillary ran for senator in only one state, New York.

But she was from Arkansas, by way of Illinois. Is there a larger sample size than Scott Brown for you proposition?

November 2026 is still a lifetime away. By then, an overfunded ICE will be flexing its power. The economy may be in recession, which will lead many to wonder why we have billions to hunt down and lock up immigrants. Tariffs are likely to fuel inflation. Trump is going to be even older and erratic and unhealthy, if he’s still around. Just as the 2010 midterms changed the political landscape in ways no one expected, 2026 may do the same.

Or not. The economy may hold together and the GOP may continue to convince voters that trans trans trans is scarier than accepting permanent, worsening serfdom.

I've been saying this for a while, but nobody wants to believe me. Bill Cassidy is going to lose in Louisiana. The right hates him for voting to convict Trump in his Jan. 16 impeachment, and the left hates him for all of his other votes. Plus there's talk that our popular Democratic former governor, John Bel Edwards might run against him.

[quote] Plus there's talk that our popular Democratic former governor, John Bel Edwards might run against him.

He might want to start with consulting us first before running.

Never place your hopes in the hands of southern voters, R25. The far-right stranglehold on those states is heavily entrenched.

Especially in national races. Gubernatorial races can be more inviting.

Taking the majority in the House at the very least is important to rein in Trump. I think by January 2027 it will be too late though to undo any of Trump's damage to the country..

My prediction…if they can’t find a way to torpedo the midterms, we’re going to fucking crush the miserable motherfuckers in House and Senate. I don’t give a damn how impossible the Senate looks now.

It's amusing to think that there are those who think that the election will not be rigged.

R32, such lovely ankles you have. It’s amusing that you think you will be around to rig jackshit.

The chances of flipping North Carolina just got a little better.

The Left is just too unpopular now and Trump isn’t unpopular enough. It’s going to be a long time before Democrats will again. Too much in-fighting and extremism.

*win

Republicans will be at war with themselves in the post-Trump era, R34. Only Trump can mobilize a winning nationwide coalition.

Democrats will have major wins this fall in Virginia and New Jersey. Spanberger and Sherrill have a shared history, and there aren’t many other elections this fall, so their wins will be a great feel good story for Democrats. God knows if winning in 26 or 28 will even matter after all of this destruction, but hope springs eternal.

[quote] Democrats will have major wins this fall in Virginia

Yes, Virginia looks very promising.

We will have to defer our dreams of a senator Lara Trump.

[quote]We will have to defer our dreams of a senator Lara Trump.

That's great news. Americans have been patiently waiting for her next music video to drop, so now she'll have time to focus on that.

This thread concerns me, OP.

Lara Trump elected to stay at Fox, where all the power lies, than to demean herself by sitting in the Senate. Maybe she's waiting instead for a Cabinet appointment.

When Republicans dumbed down history and education, they hid the way that Republicans took control of our government: through the Senate.

The Supreme Court was corrupted through the Senate.

The Senate was corrupted through the Republican Party.

The way to take back our government is through the Senate.

No, but they'll chip away at it. Probably a gain of one or two at the most.

North Carolina - Leans Dem now, with Cooper (the D who's never lost a race) versus some MAGA hack who's never run for office and can't even tell people how old he actually is.

Maine - Would be winnable in any other year, but there's no viable Democrat to take on Susan Collins. The closest they're coming is Governor Mills, who's 300 years old and not interested in a six-year term. But longtime Senate incumbents have been knocked off by anonymous rando's in the past, so we'll see.

Michigan - Stays Dem. It'll be between Haley "Dollface" Stevens and Mallory McMorrow.

New Hampshire - Get ready to elect your first big-butt fag senator, Granite Staters! Chris Pappas is on a roll!

Georgia - Ossoff will hang on, thanks to his outstanding fundraising and lack of a statewide opponent.

Iowa - Joni Ernst has big bulldyke energy, and even if she calls it quits, the seat will stay red with TV anchor-bimbo Ashley Hinson primed to run.

Minnesota - Staying Blue. C'mon.

Texas - That wonky-eyed pervert Ken Paxton fucks anything that moves, including his own party. But he's likely to win the primary, and will probably win by a hair over dull-as-dishwater Democrat Colin Allred.

I have a concern over Ossoff running without Warnock also on the ballot, R44, but I can't find fault with any of your other assessments. And I agree the Senate will not flip.

A supermajority in the Senate HAS to be the Campaign Message for Democrats.

^Oy veh.

r43 Way oversimplified. The right-wing takeover started with local things like school boards and town councils.

Ossoff will win reelection because Brian Kemp decided not to run.

Biden & Ossoff won in '20, both benefitting from the presence of Warnock on the ballot. I don't think we can take Ossoff's reelection as a given without Warnock also running.

Democrats need to take back state legislatures before the next Census and redistricting.

It's not sexy, but it's a lot more influential. And a lot cheaper, state by state.

De Santis will run for Rubio's seat

[quote] De Santis will run for Rubio's seat

No, he's nor running against his own appointee, who was not a caretaker choice.