Official Election POLL Thread: the Post-Mortem

Results are taken from the CNN Tracker as of 1pm eastern on Wednesday Nov 6.

NATIONAL:

538 Average was Harris +1.2. Actual result was Trump +3.5. Despite a loud chorus of pro-Harris protesting that the polls were stacked in Trump’s favor, it turns out that 538’s average was off by 4.7 points in Harris’ favor. Despite inclusion of several Trump-friendly polls. Underestimating Trump AGAIN by a large percentage, just like 2016 and just like 2020. And this one was the largest. Truly a Charlie Brown/Lucy/football scenario for those of us who came to believe that “but this time is different.”

BATTLEGROUNDS:

Arizona: still being counted with about 35% of the vote to go. Currently Trump +4.7%, where the 538 average was Trump +2.1%. If that holds, it’s an error of 2.6 in Harris’ favor, underestimating Trump.

Georgia: 538 Average was Trump +0.8. Actual result was Trump +2.3. Error of 1.5 in Harris’ favor, underestimating Trump.

Michigan: 538 Average was Harris +1.0. Actual result was Trump +1.5. Error of 2.5 in Harris’ favor, underestimating Trump.

Nevada: Still being counted with about 12% to go, but currently Trump +4.7. 538 Average was Trump +0.3%. Error of 4.4 in Harris’ favor, underestimating Trump.

North Carolina: 538 Average was Trump +0.9. Actual result was Trump +3.3. Error of 2.4 in Harris’ favor, underestimating Trump.

Pennsylvania: 538 Average was Harris +0.2. Actual result was Trump +2.3. Error of 2.5 in Harris’ favor, underestimating Trump.

Wisconsin: 538 Average was Harris +1.0. Actual result was Trump +0.8. Error of 1.8 in Harris’ favor, underestimating Trump.

There is a lot of shame to go around. We can pour a lot of it onto the millions who voted for Trump. I want to pour just a bit of shame onto those in here who harassed and bullied me and the OP of the Official Poll threads. We at times expressed some doubt or concern that this election might not be as good an outcome for Harris as many were claiming it would be. Our treatment in here was rough. Some posters stalked me from thread to thread calling me a doom troll, etc. Twice I discovered I’d been put on auto-ban for 48 hours.

I did have some doubts and feared a tight contest, but I’m sitting here still in shock that the election went the way it did. I am a lifelong Democrat and will be until the end. Just want to put that on the record. Thanks for reading.

[quote] Despite inclusion of several Trump-friendly polls

Considering the election results, shouldn’t those polls now be referred to as “the more accurate polls”?

Geez, really sorry that happened to you Torta. That's Datalounge in a nutshell though, admitting to any uncertainty or skepticism is viewed as trolling. I've had two auto bans but both were Israel related so I wasn't that surprised. No excuse for it happening to you.

The Trump underestimating is what my partner thinks was due to the 'shy Trump voter' phenomenon that emerged in 2016. People just didn't feel secure enough to admit their decision.

Torta is a longtimer on here, I recall well their posts during the massive Hurricane Katrina storm and posting with them back then. There shouldn't be blowback from posting differing opinions on the board. Unpopular opinions are sometimes what needs to be heard (I myself have had backlash for the same).

I feel bad, Torta. I’ve been greatly appreciating the saneness you project and just never said it because I saw old-time DLers who knew you from the past greeting you and I didn’t.

Thank you!

I count myself among those who believe — believed — that the America of my youth, now a long time ago, was the best country on Earth and would be, forever. Especially if we embraced our diversity, a strength most people couldn't see, but I felt that those of us who could would prevail. That our Constitution was perfect because it was a living, breathing document that was written by radical liberals (of their time) to accommodate change and be flexible enough to grow, to wrap freedom around anyone willing to commit to our values and dedicate themselves to working for a better, more equitable country as upheld in its mighty words. We were a community, a family, a nation of good, upstanding people.

I was terribly wrong. So were so, so many of us. So were our parents and grandparents, who fought, sacrificed and some died defending all of these ideals. I refuse to say it was for naught. I will say that I'm glad my mother and uncle (her brother) passed away before this happened because it would kill them to see everything they fought for and the losses they endured just vanish. At least I grew up and lived the majority of my life in the era of boundless optimism and faith in what was, until last night, American ideals and America.

I don't know where this leaves us. There is a great deal of pain and suffering we've yet to see, but as in all times in the past when we've been smacked upside the head with life-altering changes, it will come. I know there are things coming we can't imagine.

And I also know this: those celebrating today won't be any happier with the results down the road than we will, not because they won't get what they think they wanted, but because they didn't know that they already had what they wanted — but gave away to, essentially, own the libs.

Read it and weep.

Welp, the men failed us here - of all races. White, Latino, and Black (on what planet would Trump get 20% of the black male vote? Oh that's right...). White women tried, but still came up a bit short as well.

Dems cannot win elections with only the votes of black and Latina women and WOC. The math doesn't add up.

We knew the white men would come out for their man Trump. But blacks and Latinos?

A breakdown by age group of the same graph at r7 would be helpful and instructive.

Don't go, @Torta. I'm sorry you had to put up with that crap. Thanks for your posts throughout the election. We love ya.

Thanks all! It was just a very few bad actors. But I did want to serve them some shame today. Imagine if they could have known how the election was going to go down.

R8 I can't resist pushing back on this, where you write 'Welp, the men failed us here - of all races. White, Latino, and Black (on what planet would Trump get 20% of the black male vote? Oh that's right...). White women tried, but still came up a bit short as well."

That doesn't seem fair to put Black men in the "they failed us" camp and White women in the valiant "they tried" camp, when we consider what the data actually tells us. White women voted +2 for Trump, while Black men voted +28 for Harris.

[quote] Some posters stalked me from thread to thread calling me a doom troll, etc.

I saw it while it was happening and the person doing it was definitely a crazed loon. That’s what deserves an FF, not opinions that someone disagrees with.

Also, big gratitude to everyone in here today who's been a comfort and/or been a valid co-ranter and co-venter. There's a lot of shit to work through. This little quirky and relatively-intelligent corner of the Internet is a great place to do it. Thanks and love.

It's time for the Democratic Party to go back to the 1990s: fiscally conservative, socially liberal. Governing from the center will steer them back to electability. However, it will take someone with the political talents of Bill Clinton to do it. I don't know if Shapiro has it in him but he seems moderate enough to lead the democratic party in 2028.

And R6, I have been feeling similar to you throughout the Trump era and especially last night into today. It's hard.

But at the same time, a close friend of mine who is Black was writing this morning about the relative lack of shock from Black Harris voters, many of whom have painful stories from their own life or from their parents' or grandparents' experiences in the Jim Crow era. We've talked closely about this difference in our relationship to America and our overall outlook (I'm white and grew up comfortably middle class in suburbia). As shocked as I was this morning, it was also bracing for me to take in a perspective from someone who is feeling sadness but not shock.

[quote] Imagine if they could have known how the election was going to go down.

True. I in my own way tried to keep people grounded and not believing just fantasy. I don’t mind anything posted as long as it is accurate and depicts reality. I’ve stated many times that fact checking on DL would be a full-time job. There’s so much deliberate misinformation posted here.

The other problem is when people post only the rosy side of things. That’s not reality if the “negative” stories aren’t included as well. If you post the things that others have left out, then they complain that you are posting negative stuff. It’s reality, whether it’s positive or negative, and everyone should strive to be in and understand the real world instead of keeping their head in their ass.

[quote]That doesn't seem fair to put Black men in the "they failed us" camp and White women in the valiant "they tried" camp, when we consider what the data actually tells us. White women voted +2 for Trump, while Black men voted +28 for Harris.

I'll stand corrected - I didn't realize Black men went +28 for Harris, I assume you mean in comparison to 2020? The graph at r7 shows them at 78% for her this time around. Were they only at 50% for Biden last time?

I saw the 20% for Trump and thought that was very high, it had to be higher than what they gave him in 2020. If I'm wrong I stand corrected.

[quote]The Trump underestimating is what my partner thinks was due to the 'shy Trump voter' phenomenon that emerged in 2016. People just didn't feel secure enough to admit their decision.

Look up "The Bradley Effect." It's not a new phenomenon.

Polls can't be trusted because of the many people who opt out and the others that lie.

Black men love Trump. Black women, not so much. You have Miss Janet Jackson over there stumping for Trump - Miss Rhythm Nation herself! There’s a problem.

R8 / R17 , sorry to be unclear- I meant relative to a start of 50/50. Starting from the question, Do White Women lean Harris or do they lean Trump? This data tells me they voted 52% for Trump; another way to put that is, they lean +2 for Trump. And similarly with 78% voting for Harris, Black men can be said to lean +28 Harris.

Thanks Torta for that clarification.

I think it's instructive to look at how they voted this round, vs the prior two election rounds. It shows how much better/worse Harris did than Biden or Clinton.

Black men, as an example, have always historically voted strongly Democratic, somewhat in line with Black women (Black women are the true steadfast stronghold for the Dems). They voted in overwhelming numbers for Joe Biden in 2020 - 87%, according to Pew Research. But they were nearly 10 points off this time, at 78%. That's a large shift, especially given the candidate they moved over to (Trump! a known racist).

White women went for Biden at 46% in 2020. They were at 47% for Kamala last night, not much shift unfortunately. Similarly white men went from 40% for Biden to 39% for Harris, a 1 point drop but given their large numbers, an impactful one.

Latino men were the real turnovers here. They went 57% for Biden, but only 44% for Harris this time. That hurt. Latina women's share stayed steady from 4 years ago.

Pew Research link is below:

Thanks R21, the Pew data is helpful.

I guess where we differ is who gets more blame for being Trump voters — Black men who voted 20% Trump this time and only 10% last time? Or White women who voted 52% Trump this time and 50% Trump last time? White women made less of a shift but they’re more than twice as Trumpy.

Let me just start by saying that I was wrong in my beliefs about the outcome of this election.

And I feel just gutted.

And I am also sorry Torta that you were treated so shabbily.

What ElderLez said.

Torta when you talked about being stalked, I get it.

Somebody today dug up and posted a screenshot of some of my old posts in another of today's threads, attempting to school me on why I'm to blame for why Repugs vote for a convicted felon votes looter.

Creepy, creepy.

I'm drained. Part of me is numb, part of me stunned, but all of me is physically, emotionally and mentally exhausted.