It's the Economy, stupid!

The aforementioned exit polls...

(lots more data in there, but I think the above question is the most telling.)

The economy? Stupid? Every time Republicans are in White House there is a recession.

This is strange to me because Republicans are allegedly pro-business...a billionaire has promised Americans an economic downturn IF TRUMP IS INSTALLED AGAIN.

Elon Musk asks voters to brace for economic 'hardship,' deep spending cuts in potential Trump Cabinet role

It's just stupid, nothing to do with the economy. Too much of the electorate is uneducated and gullible. A sizable portion is just full of hate. This country will be divided for the rest of my lifetime.

The early 1980s recession was a severe economic recession that affected much of the world between approximately the start of 1980 and 1982

The recession came at a bad time for banks because of a recent wave of deregulation.

The Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 had phased out a number of restrictions on their financial practices, broadened their lending powers, and raised the deposit insurance limit from $40,000 to $100,000, which caused moral hazard.

Banks rushed into real estate lending, speculative lending, and other ventures as the economy soured.

The early 1990s recession describes the period of economic downturn affecting much of the Western world in the early 1990s. The impacts of the recession contributed in part to the 1992 U.S. presidential election victory of Bill Clinton over incumbent president George H. W. Bush.

R2 - you're discussing economic policy. That exit poll is asking a very personal question about how voters viewed their own family's economic situation now vs. 4 years ago. If that fucking Orange bastard wins, it will be because of that.

He could be on the verge of winning not just the Electoral college, but the god damn popular vote. He would not pull those numbers with just hardcore MAGA voters. Sure, that's a huge part of his base, but if he wins, it's because these voters felt their personal economy was better under Trump and that mattered more to them than Democratic institutionalism, abortion rights or hateful, racist rhetoric.

Maybe celebrities and country club Republicans like Liz Cheney were not the key to getting these voters on board.

Anyway, back to praying for a slim Kamala win. Somehow...???

I feel sick.

The Great Recession was a period of market decline in economies around the world that occurred from late 2007 to mid-2009.

At the time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded that it was the most severe economic and financial meltdown since the Great Depression.

Feelings aren't facts

How is a candidate who lost in 2016 and by a larger margin in 2020 gonna win. Strange

I didn't have a job in 2029. I was hired in 2022

If there wasn't so much else at stake, it would be amusing to think the deplorables will enjoy $2,00 a gallon gas, $1.00 a gallon milk and new Toyotas for $6,000.

R11??????? He didn’t lose in 2016. And lost by small electoral margins in 2020. It’s fkin Mexicans and black men. If he wins that will be the reason why.

He lost Teafake

Jesus Christ. You guys are so defensive. WHO are you trying to convince at this stage? The polls are closed. *I* know that Trumps economic policies will be a disaster. *I* know inflation is nearly back to normal levels and that economy is healthy -- especially when compared to other global economies. And *I* know that all Presidential administrations get too much credit and too much blame for the economy anyway. I'm not defending voting for Trump. But this willful disregard of what may shape up to be the primary reason that he (might) win is just so obtuse. If that's the way tonight goes, this will have to be a reckoning for the Democratic party.

We're gonna have to get out of our bubbles if we're going to win a national election. The majority of voters are not reading Axios and The Atlantic and discussing the nuances of policy. They're worrying about day-to-day economic issues and those, apparently, will trump (ahem) everything else.

It's true. You can't really run a campaign on social politics when people are struggling to afford to eat or put a roof over their head. It doesn't matter who started it or what the cause is. I think a lot of people in this country have felt financially backed into a corner and aren't seeing the bigger picture. You add the multi-faceted illegal immigration issue into the mix, and for most working-class Americans, any chance of a Kamala vote is a snowball's chance in hell, even if they agree with her on social issues.

R15 Big dummy wtf are you talking about. He lost in 2020 not 2016. that is what I stated big dummy. Perhaps you should reread my post big dummy.

You mean the only issue wasn't a woman's right to choose? We thought it was.

Liz Cheney is Dick Cheney's daughter. A hardline right-winger. Country club Republican? You just make shit up.

You lie. About everything.

Don't be obtuse, R20, you KNEW that "country club Republican" was shorthand for the pre-Trump old, world, wealthy, elite Republicans. Also, Dick Cheney is worth hundreds of millions. He and his family fit the description well. If the majority of Trump voters felt worse off economically in 2024 vs. 2020, they are not going to relate to some elite like Liz Cheney who, as her own last election showed, is irrelevant to the modern Republican party and to Republican-leaning independents.

YOU'RE LYING. Bush-Cheney paved the way for your Orange god

This election feels like a replay of 2004, when Bush got re-elected. You’ll note that no Republican defends that administration.

God, you are not capable of having a rational conversation, are you, R23? You clearly have reading comprehension issues. I'm not defending Trump and I'm sure has shit not defending Bush-Cheney. In fact, I may hate Bush even MORE for his weaponizing of homophobia to drive Republican turnout, HIS Federal Judicial appointments and the millions of innocent lives lost for his shameful war in Iraq. And, honestly, you can draw a throughline MUCH further back, all the way to Nixon's Southern Strategy through to Regan's brutal run on through to both Bush's. I AGREE, Trump's rise was enabled by those Republicans.

But, it is very clear that the hyperfocus on abortion and doing the RINO-Tours with Liz Cheney and Adam K (as hot as he may be) were not the right way to reach voters for whom their own personal economic situation (whether real or perceived) was going to trump all other issues. But, sure, hide your head in the sand while Trump might be on the verge of taking a second term and doing irreparable damage to our country for decades to come.

It’s inflation.

Newflash to OP: people lie in exit polls because they don't like to say "I voted for the white"

The issue was NOT inflation since inflation was as bad under Trump.. ALSO WAGES ROSE. What people liked about the Trump pandemic was being paid unemployment for not working. Why they would credit Trump with that when he was mostly concerned with letting businesses run PPP frauds is not clear, but that was only good time most twenty somethings have had.

What they really didn't care about was Trump adding $8 trillion to the national debt. They don't care if the economy collapses after they die, they just want America to borrow more and spend more so they don't have to pay taxes.

They also blamed Biden because the independent federal reserve raised interest rates beginning in 2020 that eventually led to a shut down in consumer credit. The credit card companies have been cracking down on people this year, which had a huge impact on how people felt about the economy.

Again there was a political motive behind the food companies raising prices, behind the fed raising interest rates: all of it was intended to cause pain to average folks so they would republican.

[quote] If she doesn't eek out a win,

Oh, [italic]eek.[/italic]

[quote] The issue was NOT inflation since inflation was as bad under Trump..

No it wasn’t.

Why is a foreign born welfare queen promising austerity measures against the US?

Because of what Trump did with oil and the fed rate hike in 2020 R32. But wages also rose so there was n o deficit.

Gas prices came down this year

Inflation in food prices is all people cared about. They don't care or notice that inflation is back down to target levels or that wages are rising faster than inflation. Food costs more than it used to and they blame Joe Biden - that's it, that's everything, that's how they voted.

Trum p made a nbunch of stupid promises the last week of the campaign to cut gas prices 50% on day one and food prices 50%, and all of it such obvious bullshit. Anyone who believed him should be shot for stupidity.

OP, you are correct, but some of the anti-trans weirdos here insist the average person was voting based on "men in women's sports"

If it were not for abortion and democracy, we would have lost by 10. Not 1.

r38 - there are plenty of anti-trans loons on here, but, that said, I don't think it can be entirely dismissed that that was *a* factor in this shift Rightward for the electorate. These people who are living in this conservative, far-right media bubble are being inundated with daily panicked reports -- on Fox News and, more insidiously, on their silo'd YouTube, Twitch and TikTok channels -- of non-stop stories on how boys are invading their little girls' locker rooms and bathrooms and the definition of men, women and the family unit is being erased and all this other nonsense attributable to a teeny, tiny minority of society.

I think the Right has won the culture war on this one and though I support my trans brother and sisters, Dems cannot waste any political capital on this 'issue' anymore.

Food prices have been stable for the last 18 months.

It certainly is not the economy. Post COVID inflation under control, wages up, unemployment low and growth robust. Markets are booming.

Healthiest economy in the world.

Yet the economy is sound and trump offers only economic hardship? The GOP only spreads lies, and the populace wants it

[quote]Trum p made a nbunch of stupid promises the last week of the campaign to cut gas prices 50% on day one and food prices 50%, and all of it such obvious bullshit. Anyone who believed him should be shot for stupidity.

As opposed to Harris promising a middle class tax cut, housing discounts, child tax credits... No one believed her.

They believed her. But they think their white privilege is worth more than thatt.

R42 - The right and the far left refuse to accept reality. The media enables them.

[quote]Food prices have been stable for the last 18 months.

Stable but too high. The damage was already done. The infrastructure act was as much trickle down bullshit as any tax cut. And price gouging absolutely did happen. KraftHeinz, Kellogg, Tyson, etc all used the supply chain shocks to test price elasticity: how high can we go before lost customers cost us more than higher margins. So you got $5 ketchup and $7 cornflakes, people grumbled and paid and filed it away under “vote these fuckers out”. Food prices never came back to normal. And the “higher wages” argument is just currency devaluation to a consumer. Ketchup costs $1.99 and cereal $2.99. For 30 years.

I do think there was price collusion among Corporate c-suites who wanted to make up for their Covid losses and more, get their favorite tax-cutter back in, and pin the blame of Biden. It worked spectacularly. And you’re all arguing about rates versus price optics.

Well said, R47!!

Wages went up R47. We’re not going to see prices go down. We are seeing and are going to see wages rise faster than prices.

Yes, R49, but to a consumer/voter, they earned those higher wages and they help them buy a house, fund their kids’ education, let them go on vacation. They resent when those higher wages are sucked up by a $6 package of hot dogs, $4 mustard, and a $5 package of buns when there were tacit price ranges and ceilings for decades in that supermarket basket. That’s what I meant by higher wages plus higher prices feeling like currency devaluation. It’s like you’re suddenly shopping with Canadian dollars and prices when you are used to US dollars, and it feels like massive inflation that will make you vote out the incumbents.

I’m guessing you will see prices come down because the margins these companies are taking right now are record setting, and they can do it now that they got rid of corporate tax raising Joe Biden.

But they won't. Something you don't understand about corporations R50, is that they only do stuff if someone makes them, and that someone is not Trump.

Someone IS making them, R52. The consumer has been walking away. They’re having to recalibrate to bring them back.

And I understand a lot about corporations, as I sat in boardrooms when we made these pricing decisions. (ex-CMO)

But Trump will have tools to make them do his bidding. Remember when he used to tank companies stock prices with a threatening tweet (that his inner circle promptly insider-traded to profit)?

Sorry, meant R51 ^^^

Enough with the anti-trans nonsense. It's wrong and it won't win us any votes.