*OFFICIAL ELECTION THREAD 2024 (PART 2)*—Terminator 2024: Judgment Day

Boom crunch

I will keep you company for another 20 minutes, but then I have to go to bed. It's almost 1:30 at night here.

I hope to wake up to a grandiose victory for Kamala.

Chacka-chacka-boom-boom-BOOM!

This ain’t good.

I am watching I Love Lucy. I can't take the election stress right now.

^^^ scarred

Vermont 3 Harris

Indiana 11 Trump

Kentucky 8 Trump

Harris 3 Trump 19

Looks like it’s going to be a Trump blowout.

MTG reelected.

Breathe people, it's going to be a long night...enough with the hysterics.

If that demon wins again we deserve what we get.

Chill out parsing little hillbilly counties in Georgia.

Fulton, Dekalb and Gwinnett are the big ones and she will crush those. Probably Cobb as well.

groan ^

R8 You are a troll or you are high, or possibly both.

Fuck off, r8.

R13 groan for the odious MTG.

Stop it R8! So much more to come.

Exit polls don't guarantee anything. Sometimes they suggest one thing then the results are extremely different.

These early partial results are not helpful. It’s just nerve wracking. The interviews with people who just voted are even more useless. That makes one in a row.

2016 redux

George and New Hampshire also going red.

Bernie Sanders reelected!

*Georgia

West Virginia called for Trump.

r8 Eat a dick! No evidence of that.

Georgia Latinos going for Trump. Can’t make this shit up.

R9 We’re such an unserious nation…

Georgia was always going to be a question mark for Dems in 2024 given that Kemp beat Abrams by a large margin in 2022 for Governor. Forecasters at the time thought it might be a tougher state to win for Dems than in 2020.

Georgia

Trump 58%

Kamala 41 %

R8 is a troll. One of the few blocked posters I have.

So many Trump Trolls here.

"West Virginia called for Trump"

Now there's a fucking surprise.

Xanax and tequila time.

R29 From what I've been following recently, NC is actually an easier get for Harris than GA.

DT is not winning. Fuck off, Boris.

Just block r28. The posting history is a hot mess of contradictions.

Come back Joe Manchin. All is forgiven.

[quote] Trump is winning state by state now. It’s going to be a Trump win. 4 more years of this shit. Jesus.

Trump hasn't won a single state that he wasn't expected to win, Jesus.

Harris now trading at 35% chance. Ugh

Dudes, it's 7:30 on the east coast. Many more votes to be counted.

We don’t know anything until the Blue Wall states, PA, MI & WI, come in. Obviously, Ny & CA & other Dem states have tons of votes for Harris.

Just F&F and block r8 and be done with it.

Hang steady! PA showing record turnout, blowing 2020 out of the water. And NC showing similar. Both with remarkably long lines in the Harris-friendly areas.

The early trickle from GA looks grim but hang steady!

[quote] Georgia was always going to be a question mark for Dems in 2024 given that Kemp beat Abrams by a large margin in 2022 for Governor. Forecasters at the time thought it might be a tougher state to win for Dems than in 2020.

And it doesn't help that Warnock's not on the ballot.

He's a convicted felon and they're still voting for him. Morons.

What does FL do that allows to them count so fast?

[quote]Trump is winning state by state now. It’s going to be a Trump win. 4 more years of this shit. Jesus.

Calm the FUCK down. Nothing has happened that wasn't expected.

Republican pickup in the Senate -- Repug Jim Justice to replace Joe Manchin, as expected.

Why is GA grim? It’s 10% of the vote.blue cities come in last.

Kamala is going to win. It was doom and gloom last time until about 10pm when the urban areas started reporting.

Remain Calmala.

There are bad actors here who WANT you to be contagiously upset.

[quote] Trump is winning state by state now. It’s going to be a Trump win. 4 more years of this shit. Jesus.

Jesus, indeed, Mary! Calm your tits.

[quote] The early trickle from GA looks grim

You all truly have shit for brains.

KH leading NC, albeit 2% in.

She's leading Virginia, too... by 100K with 13% in

[quote] Republican pickup in the Senate -- Repug Jim Justice to replace Joe Manchin, as expected.

But good luck to the leadership in getting him on the job to vote.

Trump is sure to win Florida, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, Missouri, N Dakota, S Dakota, Nebraska, expect for the one vote in Omaha, Kansas, Oklahoma, ALaska, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, Idaho, Tennessee, Indiana, W Virginia, Ohio

So please stop freaking the fuck out every time he wins one of those states, it just makes you look uniformed.

This is like Choose Your Own Adventure, Election Edition

Good luck America. I was going to stay up through the night to see the results, but not sure I can face it. I hope and pray I’ll wake up in the morning to news of a Harris landslide, but I’m not sure I can face watching a potential disaster happen.

God save America, even if its citizens decide not to.

HOLD ME DAVID!

Big counties in GA and elsewhere need to count faster. They just open themselves up to the same bullshit that happened last time when they started reporting later in the night and magats could then claim it looked suspicious. Especially when magat land Florida is already nearly done!

MMMMMAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

The Joe Rogan voters.

Jarrett Renshaw (Reuters) is being told by sources in Philadelphia that turnout is likely to exceed that in 2020:

R59 thanks. And I know this is like shouting into the wind but we probably won't know enough about GA or NC for a few more hours.

Kamala will win. The election really looked grim in ‘20 until later in the evening when things turned. She’s got this.

Click. Read.

Let's hope so, R66.

PollTroll, thanks, there is a lot to be hopeful about with Pennsylvania! Friends of mine were still canvassing tirelessly there this afternoon.

Personally I am giving up on GA... I don't think it was ever really in play this year. I am following NC.

And.... high turnout in Philly is great for KH. It will all come down to PA.

This is encouraging.

I’m going to need a shot of Thorazine

Trump is leading in Ohio, the pet eating state

THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS, R74.

Don’t give up on GA. Those metro Atlanta counties will turn out strong for Kamala.

R71, those 23 are from heavily Republican states. He has not won a single battle ground and not even won a state where he is only slightly favored. Use NC as your tester state. Trump is slightly favored there. As others have said if Kamala gets NC, or GA that is a great sign.

Brown sneaks back into the lead in Ohio.

The fact that FL is around 75% counted less than an hour after poll closure (and polls aren't even closed in the Panhandle) should shame the hell out of every other state! WTF takes them so long?

R71, in 2020, Trump was even farther ahead in electoral votes at 7:45. And how’d that turn out?

Yeah, FCI at R78, thank you. About that exit poll from GA that said Independents made a 20 pt swing to Trump... ?! That sounds wack, possibly not to be trusted. It wasn't in any of the polls we've seen prior.

One place in GA but not as dark as it seemed, maybe?/

It does look like the NYT "needle" isn't around this election. Good. I hated that fucker.

Stop drunk/high posting.

Counting votes might be the first and only thing Florida does that isn't batshit insane.

[quote] Personally I am giving up on GA

Congrats on winning King of the Ignorant Pussy Idiots.

You do the title proud 👑

CNN: Exit PA voters: Democracy #1 issue (granted a point ahead of economy)

[quote]Personally I am giving up on GA...

Not just yet. Metro Atlanta has yet to weigh in.

R90 and that's a problem. They should at least start trickling out the data instead of sitting around at 0% for hours.

When you know your state will go red, you set up your admin to get that news out early. They want to discourage people in the west.

Here is the call for Josh Stein in NC that R74 mentioned:

If she can consistently outperform Biden in the swing states she'll probably win.

[quote] CNN: Exit PA voters: Democracy #1 issue (granted a point ahead of economy)

A CNN exit poll I can get behind on. Even with the caveats.

FL cheats

CNN just reported that PA will post just over 110k ballots at 8:01 PM.

CNN: Philadelphia posting 110,000 mail ins at 8:01 pm.

There were polling stations in Cobb, Fulton, and Gwinnett Counties that stayed open until 745pm (in light of the bomb threats) so this is a reason for GA delays too.

The Pennsylvania surge in # of voters is potentially our best news of the night so far.

The entire south excluding Virginia can go for Trump including GA and NC, Trump can win AZ and Nevada and Harris can still win, she needs PA, MI and Wisconsin and the Nebraska district of Omaha.

Ironically, R101, perhaps the same path to 270 that Biden had pre-June 27.

I’m calming down

[quote]Harris can still win, she needs PA, MI and Wisconsin and the Nebraska district of Omaha.

That is new information!

Three hours before Trump, with Steve Bannon in tow, declares victory.

Trump wins Florida, Tennessee and Missouri, as expected.

Kamala wins Massachusetts, Maryland and D.C., as expected.

With Maryland getting a quick declaration, you have to know that Alsobrooks is gonna win.

I was hoping Florida would miraculously flip

So are we getting a Pennsylvania result tonight?

I remember from the last election that GOP-leaning states call in early so it always looks like Trump is winning. And then it changes…

Texas is leaning blie currently?

R109 🤣 they didn’t flip for Biden or Clinton, you thought they would flip for Kamala?

Why is Datalounge so out of touch with reality?

And the media loves it because it's always a roller coaster ride.

I can’t believe how many people have actually voted for him - it’s mind boggling

Good question, R113.

A lot of people live very parochial lives.

[quote]the Nebraska district of Omaha

Cook Political Report had some good news for Nebraska's 2nd CD a few days ago. It said Kamala may win by a larger margin than Biden, and that the House race is now leaning Dem with State Senator Tony Vargas having a good chance to beat incumbent GOP Rep. Don Bacon.

Does anyone remember when the networks called Georgia in 2020? It was pretty late, as I recall.

Come on Pennsylvania.

Fulton County, GA is 57% reported but Kamala is still trailing by double digit percentage. Dekalb, Gwinnett, Cobb at 0 so hopefully they move the needle.

ABC News said they had celebs FaceTiming with young people to vote for Kamala.

Time to turn off TV and start packing…

r121 to be clear she's still trailing by that margin in the state, not the county.

[quote]I can’t believe how many people have actually voted for him - it’s mind boggling

It's a big country. Literally millions of people outside your neighborhood.

[quote]Literally millions of people outside your neighborhood.

Yes, but who knew so many of them were so profoundly stupid?

Georgia goes from too early to call to too close to call, per MSNBC.

[quote] It does look like the NYT "needle" isn't around this election.

People are just so uniformed, one person when Harris canvassers knocked his door thought Biden was still running against Trump and he wasn't planning on voting, when he found out that Kamala Harris was running against Trump he said well I can vote for her.

The Good and the Bad: Dade County (Miami) has apparently made a turn to the right, since COVID and many Repubs moving to FL the past few years. FL looks to go to Trump, but we knew that.

Georgia: Trump is turning out the rural red county vote, and in slightly higher percentages that he did in 2020. However, the blue Atlanta burbs are turning out for Harris, in slightly higher percentages than they did for Biden in 2020. How much they will counter each other will be a long call, since Biden only won GA by about 13k votes last time. It will come down to every counted vote there, and Atlanta and the burbs there.

Virginia going to Harris, but Loudon County, for example, a blue county, has swung slightly rightward.

In short: the blowout scenario hoped for, for Harris, is not happening. But we knew that was a long shot.

Could someone please offer me a reason not to feel violently ill?

[quote]It will come down to every counted vote there, and Atlanta and the burbs there.

Trump will need the governor to "find" some more votes.

Also, although Indiana has gone to Trump (no surprise at all!), the north Indy wealthy burbs showed a decent uptick in Democratic support! They went much more blue than they did previously, at least in Hamilton County. Good news, if you extrapolate this to the other northern, rust belt suburbs (MI, WI, OH, PA).

Politico website is saying that Ohio is going to flip blue???

Big money odds now at 29% chance of Harris win.

I told you all that the big money (bond market, etc) aren't wrong.

It's over. At least we can go to sleep early.

[quote] Could someone please offer me a reason not to feel violently ill?

Trump hasn't won any state yet that he wasn't expected to win by a large margin.

@LiamFromBoston

It’s starting to look bleak for Harris. Just the truth. Can she pull it off? Yes, but it doesn’t look good.

Ohio flipping blue is ALL I want for Christmas!

R131 Harris is on track to win... it will be close, but she's got this.

Apparently, Florida has also rejected legalized weed and the abortion initiative tonight as well. A hard right turn apparently! This will need to be analyzed.

But we all knew that FL would go to Trump. NO surprise.

Yay, Oakland County, Michigan!

Who the fuck is Liam from Boston?

Money markets were wrong with Hillary, Bitch.

[quote]Could someone please offer me a reason not to feel violently ill?

Noithing has happened that wasn't already expected.

r137/r131 is worth a block. Take a look at the posting history.

[quote] Could someone please offer me a reason not to feel violently ill?

With 34% of the vote Harris is leading in Ohio 52% to 47%.

Who the hell is @LiamFromBoston and why should I care about his stupid opinion? Nothing has happened that wasn't expected..

r129 you just ask yourself how is it possible for people to be that ignorant.

It's like Whac-A-Mole with the trolls on these threads.

MSNBC lagged behind Fox in declaring the NC governor's race.

[quote]Also, although Indiana has gone to Trump (no surprise at all!), the north Indy wealthy burbs showed a decent uptick in Democratic support! They went much more blue than they did previously, at least in Hamilton County.

Hamilton County has had a relatively large influx of new residents, several percentage points, since 2020. It's not a clear cut case since it's not clear how much of Harris support is from people flipping and how much is from new people moving in from blue states.

408 electoral votes have yet to called

[quote]Could someone please offer me a reason not to feel violently ill?

I felt the same way the last time. I went for a walk, and when I got back I saw someone on one channel or another saying that it wasn't over yet, that there were still a lot of votes left to count. We know how that turned out, thankfully.

Listen to Boris Sanchez deliver! What a pro! Boy is on FIRE!

Will Mark Robinson concede ... ever?

The next poster who pretends to be concerned please FF them.

I'm locked in to MSNBC and the inevitable Kornacki. Where are others getting news/updates? I left Twitter when EM took over, and Threads is pretty insular and useless.

Why are the trolls out here now? They cannot influence our vote so why bother?

I use this map.

Good night!!

PLEASE GET RID OF TED CRUZ

r158 because they have poor, miserable lives

Ohio looking decent! Sherrod Brown holding onto his lead, very good news! If people who cast for him cast for Harris, it looks good for her there - a long shot, but its good news.

Ohio looking good.

They do it for the lulz, r158. Blocking is the only thing that works.

It's good that it's so even with each side thinking they have an edge as it keeps most people in the country in good spirits for most of the evening.

Hang on until we see how Kamala is performing in suburban and urban areas. She’s got this.

Good night Dutchie! Hope to greet you with good news in the morning.

The needle is back on the NY Times website.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, N Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada are the only in question states, all other states are a known outcome,

If N Carolina or Georgia go blue Trump is in trouble

If Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan go red Harris is in trouble

how Arizona and Nevada go probably don't matter much in the end unless some of the above don't go as expected..

I'm watching CBS, did they say she's underperforming with independents?

Dave Wasserman's working for NBC tonight & not tweeting. Any suggestions as to whom to turn?

In case this has not been posted already, here’s the Associated Press site. Lots of good drilldowns.

VIRGINA 34% reporting HARRIS 50% Trump 48%

I believe I also heard that Harris was underperforming a bit with Independents, but I didn't catch in what state or region.

Ah shit, the NYT is using the needle, which project's a Trump win in electoral college, w/277 votes. There is absolutely no reason to follow the needle. Just digital engagement manipulation.

Virgina looking good, Harris 50% to 48% with 34% reporting.

Molly Jong-Fast @MollyJongFast·1h

Harris is going to win

The suspense is really triggering my esophageal stricture and chronic gastritis. I'd love to stay up with my visiting sister and watch until the bitter end, but I'm heading to bed in 30 mins, taking night meds, settling in with my favorite podcaster until the Ambien and Delta-8 kick in, and let the cats either stay up with Sister or come to bed after me.

She did terribly with independents in GA.

Needle is back.

Rural Georgia loves treason. Of course, we kind of knew that.

That was in Georgia, R174, according to early exit polls.

Exit polls should be taken with a grain of salt, however.

Maybe Trump will hire Mark Robinson to be a lawn jockey at Mar-A-Lago.

r79 North Carolina now looking good for Kamala

[quote]The needle is back on the NY Times website.

At the moment they have "Chance of Winning" and "Electoral College" both leaning slightly for Trump.

Interesting comment posted just now from Kos at DailyKos, re: Georgia:

"Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger says Georgia will turn out a stunning 300,000 more voters than in 2020—a record 5.2 million. The state’s population is up half a million since 2020, so that is a big reason why. Raffensperger says most of the increased turnout is coming from the Atlanta suburbs, so uh oh Trump. That doesn’t bode well for Republicans."

So once again... consider holding off on doomposting re: Georgia until it's all in. The pessimists are probably right, but Kos has a strong point as well.

NYT has Georgia leaning Trump. North Carolina, Pennsylvania & Michigan are tossups.

You queens really go to bed at 8:30?

King on CNN:no suprises yet on the map... filling in as expected.

Ohio gone red now.

[quote] Exit polls should be taken with a grain of salt, however.

True, especially with women these days. I might just be grasping at straws, but honestly, how many women were interviewed standing next to their Trump Cult husbands?

Thank you r179 and r182.

[quote] Raffensperger says most of the increased turnout is coming from the Atlanta suburbs

A more reliable source than the area congressman.

Queens who live in Europe do. It's 2:30 AM on the continent as I type.

Trump must be on his knees praying to get his Get Out of Jail Free card; cuz that's what his run is all about. Becoming President again I imagine is a distant second to him. He'll just outsource to Vance, Musk, and RF Kennedy Jr. Trump will golf everyday, even if he's not on the green!

AP shows her leading Trump in PA by a 2 1/2 to one margin, 8% reporting.

Trump wins Arkansas, as expected.

[quote]She did terribly with independents in GA.

I never got on board with the "Independent". In my mind, an Independent is generally just a Republican who no longer wants to be known as Republican because of societal pressures but who is still a Republican.

King needs to slow the fuck down. His big map is an acid trip on a rollercoaster.

help

Atlanta and surrounding areas will determine this. We won’t know for a long time. Kamala has this.

Good news! Ted Cruz and Colin Allred are currently tied exactly in TX, for the Senate. Let's hope this holds and Allred can squeak out a win.

Listen to FCI! It's gonna be a LONG night, the urban and suburban counts will take a while to come in. It was a historic day, in terms of turnout and gross voting numbers. That bodes well for Dems, always has.

Dana Bash:

[quote] I am hearing from Dems that the Harris campaign is trying to keep voters in line by having celebs FaceTime them -- Josh Gad at Lehigh, Jenifer Garner at Villanova, etc.

I’m not saying relax, but things looked bleak early on in 2020 as well.

Booooooo

It's a seesaw but:

You should start to panic only if Rachel Maddow’s expression changes dramatically. That’s when I knew it was over for Hillary in 2016.

The angry PRs in Florida don't seem to have had much effect.

FL fucking cheats. No one, not even other Red states, get their stats in that fast. Audit FL.

Phil Mattingly:

[quote] Digging back into GA/Atlanta metro and burbs. Cobb: Harris outrunning Biden's 2020 campaign so far by about a point, with 57% in. Fulton: Harris underperforming Biden so far by 2.5 points. Clayton: +1.1 vs. Biden. Douglas: +7 vs. Biden. Rockdale: +10 vs. Biden. Gwinnett, DeKalb and Henry all too early to get a good read.

Georgia is more than half counted and still holding 55/45 Trump. This includes 78% Fulton, 64% of Cobb, 17% of Gwinnett and mercifully 0% of Dekalb. I don't have much hope for GA though.

i feel so nervous

I will say, in terms of GA it will come down to Atlanta turnout, and the immediate blue suburbs, which always come in last.

Harris is running very slightly behind Biden in the blue GA counties, such as Fulton. We're talking 1 or 2 percentage points. What does this mean? Coupled with the slightly stronger Trump turnout in the bright red rural counties, Harris will have to really run up the vote in urban centers to counter the overall statewide vote loss. Biden won GA by only 13k votes in 2020.

The days of Florida going blue are long gone, too many conservatives moving there. Texas will go blue before Florida ever votes blue again.

R208, I explained earlier that FL Latinos are more conservative. It doesn't mean anything for the PRs in, say, PA.

Feeling nervous is ok. We felt it in ‘20 early on. GA is not the ballgame. GA is a luxury. Remember that.

Democrats keep the DE Senate seat.

I need more Xanax.

It all comes down to MI-WI and PA guys. With a dash of NV thrown in there.

We've got this. It's not going to be a blowout or a huge margin as hoped. But a win is a win, no matter what.

[quote]Good news! Ted Cruz and Colin Allred are currently tied exactly in TX, for the Senate. Let's hope this holds and Allred can squeak out a win.

I hope Allred wins. I'm just sickened that Rick Scott and Marsha Blackburn won re-election.

BUT....

What is wrong with our nation if Marjorie Taylor Greene, that Aluna woman, and some of the other nuts cannot be beaten? Something is VERY wrong!

Come on, Colin Allred!

So all those supposed “Republicans for Kamala” never materialized. Fuck them.

I think my map is looking more prescient. In Pennsylvania we trust!

My earlier post about Loudon County VA needs updating...the rightward shift reported there may have been a data error after all, per Sarah Longwell tonight at the Bulwark live.

She's currently doing better in Philly than Biden did.

Wow, huge flip in Dade county. It went for Biden 53.4%. It's now 55.4% Trump.

Orange County was 61% Biden, now 55.8% Harris. Florida has become more solid red. +5% statewide.

[quote] You should start to panic only if Rachel Maddow’s expression changes dramatically. That’s when I knew it was over for Hillary in 2016.

I don’t know if your were joking, but I could absolutely remember how somber her face got.

Just took my Delta-8 too , R178. Praying for sleep tonight. Right now I am wired.

Kristen Holmes (CNN):

[quote] Trump’s team was particularly concerned that some of the data indicated more women than men were voting early in the [NC], which they didn’t think boded well for the former president.

I hope Kamala and Doug have other homes outside the U.S. That Dump is going to win and send his flying monkeys to seek revenge on all of us.

I hope Kamala and Doug have other homes outside the U.S. That Dump is going to win and send his flying monkeys to seek revenge on all of us.

Didn't a bunch of MAGAts move to Florida during the pandemic? That would explain why it's going full on red now. Good luck with Rick Scott when that next hurricane hits!

[quote] Wow, huge flip in Dade county. It went for Biden 53.4%. It's now 55.4% Trump.

That's actually weird, to the point I question the integrity of that.

I want to vomit.

Florida is Trump’s home. It’s solid MAGA. It was never going for Harris.

David? You know what to do.

[quote] So all those supposed “Republicans for Kamala” never materialized. Fuck them.

Way too premature.

ILLINOIS CALLED FOR HARRIS!!

R233 FL cheats. It will come out one day.

[quote] I'm just sickened that Rick Scott and Marsha Blackburn won re-election.

Marsha Blackburn is a moron and it's crazy to vote for her. But Rick Scott is worse. Carried off the biggest Medicare fraud ever, and Florida of all places just calmly made him a senator. Old fuckers in Florida voted for a guy who stole from them. Deeply fucked up state.

When it comes to Florida, I've always felt that the 2018 loss of long-term Democratic Senator Bill Nelson was a bad sign for future statewide races in FL.

As the map above shows, we don’t need GA, NC, AZ, or NV to win. We will get one or more of them, though. I’d rather be us than them.

Robert Reich@RBReich·23m

Don't be alarmed by Trump taking an early lead in the electoral vote count. We knew Kentucky, West Virginia, and other deep red states would be the first to be called. Hang in there. And if you're still in line to vote, stay there.

R227 Rachel let out a very audible sigh earlier when all those reliable D states came in about 8pm saying too early to call. I think she was hoping for a blowout.

Dade County: relentless DeSantis-led MAGA cultural war having its effect. Cubans in Dade now pretty much Republican base voters.

One this is clear to me anyway, Biden could not have prevailed in this.

[quote] What is wrong with our nation if Marjorie Taylor Greene, that Aluna woman, and some of the other nuts cannot be beaten? Something is VERY wrong!

MTG, Luna, and Boebert are embarrassments to this country. I blame the media for giving so much attention to them. The media in this country focuses way too much on people on the far right like MTG, Luna, and Boebert. and then people on the far left like AOC and the Squad. I know there are bunch of AOC fans on DL. But, the constant media attention on AOC has pretty much done a disservice to many moderate or liberal Democratic Congresswomen and Dem senators. If Trump wins tonight which I think he will. I hope the DNC stops using AOC as their poster girl and starts to focus on moderate Democratic women like Elissa Slotkin, Haley Stevens, or Abagail Spanberger.

We all knew the southern states would be tough - it's one thing to vote for an older, moderate white guy from Delaware (Biden), its entirely another to vote for a black/Asian female from the liberal Bay Area.

Hang in there!

I'm waiting for Dump to declare victory any minute now.

I don't like how close VA is

Quoctrung Bui (NYT)

[quote] Right now, the New York Times needle is showing Trump +2.5 in Georgia. While 2020 was obviously a very weird year, one thing that could give Harris supporters hope was that the needle's estimates grew more blue as the night wore on. This is the needle’s trajectory in 2020.

Democrats really need to take a step back and look at things. If we can't trounce a person like Trump, especially after we've all seen him before. There is something seriously wrong with either our party or the country.

Maybe it is just the country... and this is what the people want.

Chris Wallis on CNN again: no surprises - or flips - on the map.

Virginia tight, but only 50% in. However, Joe won by 10 point, HC by 5.

Please stop with the stuff about Rachel Maddow's facial expressions. We need data, not tea-leaf reading. It's only adding to the extreme tension here.

Harris still running 2 percentage points off Biden in key Fulton County, GA. Aaargh! This could change as the night wears on.

R255 It’s the country. We may have one of the most epic Fuck Around Find Out moments in history.

[quote] If we can't trounce a person like Trump, especially after we've all seen him before.

I know this is hard for sane people to believe, but Trump is probably the toughest Republican we could be facing.

How is it what the people want when he lost the popular vote twice, R255? Start with abolishing the electoral college.

Uh ho...Jim Sciutto is clearly drunk over at CNN.

There is clearly something wrong with the country if it elects a clear and present danger of treason like Donald Trump r255. Regardless of any flaws in the Democratic Party or in Kamala Harris. If we actually elect Donald Trump knowing everything we know about him, there may be something fatally wrong with the country itself.

Harry Enten:

[quote] In North Carolina, we have nine counties with 95% or more of the vote in. Trump is matching his 2020 performance nearly exactly. Remember he won the state by a little more than a point the last go around.

Harris up by a half point over where Biden was in 2020, in key Clayton County in GA! Good news there. More votes coming in.

R255, way too early to start with the circular firing squad. I know it's the Democratic way, but please. The problem is obviously with the country, which has been perverted by the last 40 years of Republican malevolence. We have a great candidate in Kamala, who did a great job campaigning. If they don't want to vote for her, it's because they're fucking low-intelligence, angry racists who've been trained not to like the things we stand for, not because we're not doing a good enough job.

Manu Raju:

[quote] Key exit poll data from WI and MI: Biden underwater in his approval ratings. The underlying question of this election and tonight: Will Harris be dragged down by Biden? And if she loses, should she have done more to break from him?

Does anyone know what time in 2016, when we had a sinking feeling Hillary lost?

Unfortunately, one expert today said Virginia and Florida were early indicators. For Trump to do well( he needed a big win in Florida, the same for Harris in Virginia. Maybe that’s bs but Trump got his big Florida win.

Collin Allred down 59.9 - 47.3 right now. Still a lot of votes out there.

R253 & R256, the Dem strongholds in VA often report late. I remember this being the case in previous elections. Having said that, it is possible that VA will be a narrower Dem win this year than in previous elections. There was polling earlier this year that showed a closer race in VA.

[quote]R172 Lots of good drilldowns.

This sounds overtly sexual.

R256 Blue counties in VA always report late. Fairfax will turn the state blue.

I’m serious about Rachel, R227. I was watching intently and when her demeanor changed, I shut the tv off and went to bed.

Patrick Healy (NYT)

[quote] Senator Sherrod Brown’s team in Ohio was feeling cautiously optimistic (emphasis on “cautiously”) this afternoon. They thought they were getting enough Trump-Brown ticket splitters to get Brown over the finish line ahead of Moreno.

You aren't fooling anybody, r250.

[quote]I know this is hard for sane people to believe, but Trump is probably the toughest Republican we could be facing.

2028 will be an interesting year to see the net effect of having a candidate other than Trump. Perhaps some people passionate for Trump may drop off, but how many Republicans who hated Trump will come home?

AZ is going to be slow as fuck with counting. Saying that by an hour after the close they'll have just counted the early votes.

Michelle Goldberg (NYT)

[quote] Is anyone watching Ohio’s presidential numbers? I obviously don’t think Harris has a chance there, but the margin is shockingly close, with about 44 percent of the vote in.

r274 Fairfax is at 60%

Yay for Fani Willis. If Trump wins, maybe there's a chance she can still be one of the heroes who makes sure Trump is held accountable for the 2020 bullshit

Harris hasn’t lost yet. But if she does maybe the Dems should NOT nominate a woman next time.,

Please don’t report me to DL’s HR department, R273.

r270 he's ahead by about 5 points now in FL, he won that state by 3 points over Biden in 2020. That's not a "huge win", it's a gain (so far) and a rightward shift, but not a massive change.

You guys are stressing me the fuck out. God I hate this trashy country.

Could we at least PLEASE have Peter Alexander and Phil Mattingly come out in jockstraps and rub their bulges together while Jim Sciutto plays with his nips?

At least it would ease my tension for awhile.

I'm afraid of going to bed because I'm afraid of waking up to bad news.

[quote]We all knew the southern states would be tough - it's one thing to vote for an older, moderate white guy from Delaware (Biden), its entirely another to vote for a black/Asian female from the liberal Bay Area.

Hmm... but this really speaks about the country. Trump is nearly an 80n year old man (something that tanked Preident Biden), a CONVICTED felon, a terrible businessman, a rapist, and just a vile person on many levels. But this is who many choose over good, dcent, and honest, people?

Honestly, was the Stamp Act really worth all this stress? Ask nicely, my colonial children, and you may return to The Crown.

I had no idea that sky news in the UK follows our election.

Iowa closes in a minute. Be a good test of Selzer.

AP calls it for DL fave Chris Murphy (D-CT) four minutes after the polls close.

PA has me terrified

Kamala wins Virginia!!

[quote] AZ is going to be slow as fuck with counting. Saying that by an hour after the close they'll have just counted the early votes.

Speaking of AZ, Governor Katie Hobbs needs to be called out on her lack of campaigning for Harris/Walz in that state. Gretchen Whitmer went all over Michigan and into other states to campaign for Harris/Walz. If Harris loses, I will be heartbroken for Whitmer because she fucking pounded the pavement for Harris.

Try harder, r283.

I’ve been watching the Sky News coverage of our election because I’m interested in hearing the British peoples opinion on all this. They have Omarosa there so one American is there.

They even have British journalists here to report back? wtf. WHY?

71 Harris , 101 Trump

Phil Mattingly:

[quote] Dipping into Michigan where it's super early (only 6% of the vote reported statewide). Two key Dem-leaning counties have a decent chunk in so far - Oakland (38%) and Washtenaw (22%). These are suburban counties ringing Detroit/Wayne County. Washtenaw is home to the University of Michigan. Bit of a choose your own adventure with Harris overperforming Biden in Oakland by about 4 points but underpeforming Biden in Washtenaw by about 20 points. Both are critical, so keep an eye on 'em.

R255- we will trounce him. Wait til NY and CA come and in.

'Red mirage': Don't read into early results just yet

If you have a Roku, go to the Live TV section. They are streaming EVERY FUCKING NEWS MEDIAS COVERAGE of this. ABC, CBS, NBC, NewsMax, The Hill, Sky News, OAN, … you name it, they have every single one streaming for free

Trump wins Texas, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

It sucks that Democrats have to go through the painful slog of early returns favoring Republicans. I’m surprised that Trump hasn’t already claimed victory.

Can Kamala still win if she loses GA and NC?

I watching Sky News in the UK and it's showing Harris 30, Trump 154 projected. What's going on?!

[quote] Just before 2 p.m., an election observer noticed a panel on tabulators in Milwaukee's central count weren't properly closed. The panel that wasn't closed contains tabulators' on/off switches. They were supposed to have been locked in the morning

[quote] We have a great candidate in Kamala, who did a great job campaigning. If they don't want to vote for her, it's because they're fucking low-intelligence, angry racists who've been trained not to like the things we stand for, not because we're not doing a good enough job.

Exactly. This is my point. She is perfect and has done a near perfect job. So if the country can't get behind her, then it's not a Democratic problem. It's the country.

That is what worries me. We can have the best candidate, the best backers of her, the best everything. But we still struggle to get 50% of the country.

There is something fundamentally wrong. I don't know what it is, but there's something very wrong.

Deep breaths, everyone. It’s still early.

R271, although Cruz is not well-liked, even by Republicans, he will be the favorite to win because we are living in an age in which nearly every state votes the same way for Senate as it does for President. We will see if it turns out differently this year, but it's becoming harder to do. Cruz only won by about 3 points over Beto O'Rourke in 2018 and so he is a bad candidate for the Republicans, but Trump's likely win in TX may save him.

This was always coming down to PA- If we get PA WI MI- we are GOOD

Those 3 states have never NOT voted blue or red together since 1988--

Other than this bright light, i am very saddened otherwise. 50% of our country is racist and apparently approves of treason, insurrection, traitors and are racist- AND want women to have no rights.

That is the truth

Phil Mattingly:

[quote]I'll be changing into my jockstrap soon.

Georgia is gone. Dekalb count well into the 70% range and he's still leading.

Half of America is retarded. It is what it is.

Harry Enten:

[quote] Looking at the votes now in, Trump is very much outperforming what he did in 2020 in both Florida and Texas. Why is that important? Those states have tons of votes. If this keeps up, Trump's first popular vote win could be on the table, but it's still very early.

[quote]There is something fundamentally wrong. I don't know what it is, but there's something very wrong.

Racism and misogyny are still very much issues in this country.

Kids, we are going to win. It's (unfortunately) not going to be a blowout.

R304 Harris can lost both NC and GA and win if she wins MI, PA and WI.

“Favoring Republicans”…. This is such a stupid comment. This is a VOTE. It’s not about “favor”. It’s about who fucking voted. The first states closed get announced first. Common sense.

R246- too early doesn’t mean it’s not a blowout. That would be too close to call.

I agree that Phil Mattingly is hot:

Georgia is a huge disappointment.

r312, was that a hot mic? wtf

Tressie McMillan Cottom (NYT)

[quote] I’m watching where North Carolina has reported. The Democratic-heavy counties are still reporting. There are also lot of votes to come from some of the more rural parts of the state. Democratic organizers in the state are telling me they think they are still in the game.

[quote]It sucks that Democrats have to go through the painful slog of early returns favoring Republicans. I’m surprised that Trump hasn’t already claimed victory.

The "Red Mirage" is always because the smaller, redder counties get their vote counts in early, giving the Repub candidate an early lead nearly always. When the bluer, urban/suburban areas get their counts in, the margins nearly always reverse.

This is how Trump was able to cry foul in 2020, he bleated on about his early leads that disappeared as Election Night wore on. Well duh, your early leads was the rural red vote. He'll do the same this time, mark my words.

[quote] They even have British journalists here to report back? wtf. WHY?

Because this election is fairly important, r298. A trade war with China threatens the global economy. And if Trump wins you, can safely bet that Ukraine will be forced into a humiliating defeat and Putin will take a look at the menu and decide which of the other Eastern European states he wishes to devour. - He’ll be a man in a hurry too, as no other US President has ever been as Russia-friendly (servile) as Trump. He’ll want to capitalise on the Trump years.

Not just the U.K., Ireland and the Netherlands also have all night coverage going. Maybe more, I just have friends there so can confirm those for sure.

Only Kamala isn’t perfect. And the truth is Democrats ONCE AGAIN made the wrong choice. Some of us Dems spoke out about this and said we need a proper VOTE on who should run against Trump but the majority silenced us and didn’t wanna hear it. “Kamala is perfect! Kamala will win!”

When some of us dared to speak up about how her chances won’t be high as a black woman, we got attacked.

Now look at how tonight is going. Stop living in a bubble of delusion.

R17 is right- And I vibe we will win NC

We will go to bed losers tonight-

And Just my sad sad hunch-

Trump takes the popular vote

Colorado looks like it might be BLUE. I'm pleasantly surprised.

Georgia sucks. Ground zero for Trump attempt to completely and shamelessly steal an election he lost, and the cunts apparently are totally fine with that. Trump tried to steal all their votes in 2020, and in 2024 the cunts are saying, fine with us. In fact, no need to steal them, here they are!

[quote]They even have British journalists here to report back? wtf. WHY?

Because when America sneezes the world catches a cold. We're big, dumb and rich; we have a huge influence on world politics.

Tressie McMillan Cottom (NYT)

[quote] Buncombe County is a possible bright spot. With 70 percent of votes in, Harris is running +35. Trump was +21 in 2020. That includes liberal Asheville but the area is also still suffering from Helene. Despite a big disinformation campaign, a lot of people benefitted from government help.

[quote]That is what worries me. We can have the best candidate, the best backers of her, the best everything. But we still struggle to get 50% of the country. There is something fundamentally wrong. I don't know what it is, but there's something very wrong.

It's racism. While great strides have been made there is still A LOT to do! Why do you think that the Trump campaign has focused on race for the last two weeks of this campaign?

R321- why? Harris has a great chance of winning GA.

Georgia is disappointing and Florida trends will be analyzed for some time to come (what is going on down there?) but they are not NV or the Rust Belt. It's going to be a long night.

I agree with posters here that Trump may be looking at a popular vote win this time. The higher margins in TX and FL may get him there, just like NY-CA got Hillary there in 2016.

[quote] Colorado looks like it might be BLUE. I'm pleasantly surprised.

You thought Harris was gonna win without Colorado?

The NYTimes needle still leaning toward Trump for winning the electoral college.

[quote] And the truth is Democrats ONCE AGAIN made the wrong choice.

Well if the only correct choice is a career criminal, pathological liar, fascist, yeah, Democrats might continue to make the wrong choice. But again, it's clearly the U.S. making the wrong choice, if the worst happens tonight, and I'm not sure Democrats or anybody who isn't a fucking asshole has a good answer to that.

r334 she's slightly underperforming Biden in blue counties, while Trump is very slightly overperforming in his red counties. The end result will be a small Trump victory there. Biden only won GA by 13k votes in 2020.

R334, I'm looking at the Google map. Right, now, Georgia is leaning red.

Jon King just said that at 9pm election night in 2020, Trump was leading by 244k votes and tonight he's leading by 242k votes.

[quote]R268 Yay for Fani Willis.

OT: whenever I read this name I think of the movie [italic]Oliver!

John King on CNN just reported that at this hour in 2020, Trump was 240K votes ahead in GA, which he ended up losing by 11,000 votes. Just sayin'.

BYE, KARI LAKE!

CO, KS, MO: Turning BLUE. IL: already BLUE.

r308, Kamala has run a very good campaign but she’s not a perfect candidate. For one thing, she was chosen by Biden and not in primaries or in an open convention. I just want her to win perfect or not.

Harris trending under Biden 2020 in North Carolina.

So, like we always knew... the Blue Wall. Will it hold. Can she add NV?

What's taking PA and MI so long? And WI?

CBC has reporters all over the US as well, R298. Canada will be affected more than any other country (aside from the US) by a Trump win, so of course they'll have Canadian reporters on scene. If Americans don't want other countries reporting or opining on their politics, then keep your crazy within your own borders.

Maria Shriver@mariashriver·1h

If you are watching results, breathe. It’s going to be a long night—just breathe 🙏

Steve Kornacki says Kamala running behind Biden in rural, heavily African American counties in NC.

California hasn’t reported so I don’t see Trump winning the popular vote.

Lots of votes left. But yes, this is no blow out for anyone.

Pamela Paul (NYT):

[quote] It’s still very early in Michigan, but early results show Harris is trailing Biden right now in several counties.

R346 AND she ramped up the whole campaign and got us to (I believe) victory in just a couple months. Campaigns usually need YEARS to organize well.

Sarah Longwell just pointed out on YT that she isn't concerned about the slightly lower Harris turnout in NH or VA - there was literally NO campaign spending in those places, at all. They put everything on the table in the swing states, and nothing in the safe states.

With few ads or campaign stops, it's no surprise that she perhaps if off Biden's numbers from 2020.

Tonight is a lot more stressful than I thought it would be. I'm trying not to eat too much or drink too much, but wtf....I will.

R338 missing the whole point.

If you wanna take down Trump you need a STRAIGHT WHITE MAN running against him to try and get a lot of those Republican types to consider. They see Kamala and many automatically say no. Especially white men. This was what some of us kept saying but you all want to continue living life delusional

Kamala ran a great campaign. I hope she wins but if she doesn’t it speaks more to how fucked up America is. Putting a criminal back in the White House, etc.

Florida had a huge influx of republicans from the north moving there during Covid. They have driven up housing prices (out of reach for most native Floridians) and vote in huge numbers

Cubans we all know about.

Lots of rednecks, racism and misogyny

Maybe in the next decade things will get better

If Harris loses this, it's not her, it's inflation. I don't know a man who could have run effectively against inflation. People are pissed off and prices are still too high at the grocery store.

If we lose I have to start showing my porkchop on Only Fans. Can I count on your subscriptions?

I will do WHATEVER you want!

[quote]Harris trending under Biden 2020 in North Carolina.

by how much, do you know how many points? It makes a difference.

Also r351, how far behind is she in the rural black NC counties?

Big money now at 24% chance of Harris win. Fuck.

[quote] California hasn’t reported so I don’t see Trump winning the popular vote

Harris's margin of victory in both California & NY is expected to be sharply reduced.

Of course, anything is possible but I find it hard to believe that David Plouffe would have come on board the Harris campaign without the feeling of an assured win.

trump 177 to 99 harris.

[quote] Some of us Dems spoke out about this and said we need a proper VOTE on who should run against Trump but the majority silenced us and didn’t wanna hear it.

R327 what part of there was no mechanism for having another primary vote did you not understand? Primary elections are controlled by the states and their laws there are no laws that allow a new primary if someone drops out. The electors for the convention elect the nominee, they elected Harris. Deal with it.

Bullshit r358. People voting for Trump like the shit he stands for, all the terrible, terrible fucked up shit he stands for. They are not turned off by the black lady, they are turned on by his fuckery. No, Gavin Newsom would not have magically turned all that around.

Harris up over Biden's 2020 numbers in Wake and Mecklenburg Counties in NC, which are the blue urban/suburban areas. That's good, they want to see that since Trump is outperforming in the tiny red rural ones.

R364 the NYT needle and the betting markets are irrelevant. It all comes down to MI, WI, PA. It was always going to be that.

[quote] Tonight is a lot more stressful than I thought it would be.

There were some who cautioned against what was seen as irrational exuberance.

Wisconsin and Minnesota leaning red. OMG.

I know it will take a lot of states to add up to it, but it's weird to see Trump currently only 102 votes away from winning.

Harris slightly underperforming in small but blue Watauga County in NC. By a point or so.

The NYTimes needle now has Trump winning the election at 66%.

This is reminding me of the NYTimes needle in 2016.

The rural whites are trying their hardest to make American a dictatorship. They want black, women and Latinos back in their place

NYT forecast of the election as of 9:13 EST. (Click the image to see the details.)

No comment.

Are Boris, Natasha, Vlad and Svetlana are here at the same time?

R371 the betting markets are not irrelevant

Money managers and millionaires don't bet money unless they know

I am feeling really sick.

Harry Enten:

[quote] Simple road to 270 math right now: So far, Trump is doing what he needs to in Georgia and North Carolina. Obviously, we'll continue to count votes, but if the Georgia and North Carolina trends continue, then Harris almost certainly needs to carry Pennsylvania.

I don't buy Minnesota, but I'll be honest, if she's lost ground in Virginia I don't see how she holds Wisconsin. That's what I'm worried about.

Now it's at 21% chance.

It's over.

[quote]I am feeling really sick.

Ginger ale is good if you have any, or anything with ginger in it.

If WI goes red-- I dont know how we win. What would we need with PA and MI?

This is really my worst nightmare---

Lets treat each other a little better- That might be all that's left-

Very very worried.

[quote] Money managers and millionaires don't bet money unless they know

Oh come on. they don't "know" shit. They are as moved by their emotions as the rest of us.

[quote]Steve Kornacki says Kamala running behind Biden in rural, heavily African American counties in NC.

Exactly.

Phil Mattingly:

[quote] Taking a swing through NC, a couple of things stand out with less than half the vote in. First, a ton of vote outstanding in key Dem strongholds like Mecklenburg (Charlotte) and Durham. Harris is overpeforming '20 in Wake by 3ish points, Orange by 3+ and Chatham by about 5. But move east and there are some warning signs.

I told you all this earlier. And no one believed me.

[Quote] Money managers and millionaires don't bet money unless they know

And they bet on Hillary in 2016.

It’s irrelevant.

Harris outperforming Biden in Gwinnett County GA! Very large, populous blue county. She needs this, to keep ground statewide and stay in that race.

There have been NO results that were not expected, what do you people not understand about that? Get concerned when there is actually something to get concerned about.

The New York Times has all but declared Trump the winner.

I wish Google would put, on its map, how many electoral votes each state has.

Harris outperfoming Biden by 4 points in Douglas County GA, another surburban county near Atlanta. Very good, again.

If we lose WI and NC- What does she need to win, or are we already out?

r394 I think we all have trauma from 2016

In fairness, R396, the NYT basically declared him the winner last April.

R377 you don’t know this country at all if you think it’s just rural people. They don’t hold the power you think. A lot of city people voting for him for him to be winning.

[quote]There have been NO results that were not expected, what do you people not understand about that? Get concerned when there is actually something to get concerned about.

Get back to us in a couple of hours, hon.

R397 If you put your cursor over each state a pop up will show the electoral votes

I just threw up.

Is Rachel seeming concerned?

Ah yes, you. Anonymous oracle R390.

Thanks R405!

Oh noes, r396, you better go drink some drain cleaner.

[quote] If we lose WI and NC- What does she need to win, or are we already out?

Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan.

The NYTimes has now has Trump with a 68% chance of winning the election.

[quote] There have been NO results that were not expected, what do you people not understand about that? Get concerned when there is actually something to get concerned about.

Thank you, r394.

I'm getting more sane perspective from twitter rather than DL this time around. chill the fuck out people.

Good night, and good luck

Harris just behind in Virginia (25K). BUT, ABC's board shows big blue circles around NOVA and Richmond. Heavy blue areas. This means lots of votes still to count in those two areas. One concern, Tim Kaine is only about 2% up with 95% in. I do not know what his usual margin of victory is.

NC. Trump is doing above expectation in rural areas. Momala is doing above expectation in Charlotte/Raleigh-Durham. I also show a number that Momala is way, way above expectation in Asheville.

[quote] Get back to us in a couple of hours, hon.

I am making no predictions because no one knows but when nothing unexpected has happened there is nothing to be concerned about. Neither candidate was ever going to win this in a landslide.

This concerns me, but I feel that he has learned his lesson.

Harris wins NY

I'm sorry for this as it seems a stupid question, but how are so many electoral votes awarded given their counts are still ongoing?

[quote]Georgia is a huge disappointment.

Hi, Georgsha!

Fuck you, Georgsha!

Well at least there will be no storming the Capitol in January.

You all are falling for media drama and trolls. You're better then this.

LIVE: 2024 Election Results Board - see all major race calls and current balance of power | NBC News

On another note...

These voting lines are long with hours and hours of wait time and yet I've seen no one with those little portable stools to sit. Are they illegal? How could anyone expect an elderly person to wait so long in such a line standing?

Trump’s Latino vote is UP this time compared to 2020. His Black Male vote is up from 2020 also.

Yay! Kamala finally won a double digit state!

Harris outperforming Biden in several PA counties so far, or staying even. Good news! That's what we need.

I'm not saying who wins, I know what I hope. But one thing I am sure of: it's going to be close. This is consistent with what that would feel like on the way there.

Even if Kamala Harris wins, that’s it for me and the United States, I’m getting the hell out of this garbage.

R426 you STAND in line. You don’t sit. It keeps moving.

^forgot the other question, if they're being awarded this quickly why was everyone expecting it to take much longer?

I should have said, per Steve Kornacki in r429

California has 54 electoral votes.

Kamala has this. We are in the exact place we were in ‘20. If they both overperform, she wins. That seems to be the case right now.

New Mexico turned from dark red to dark blue, I think. Not called, yet.

Thanks, r436. I needed that.

The reason some of us are upset is that there is some parallel to 2016 in that we all thought Hillary was going to do better than she did and it unfolded slowly over the night. We've been excited for Kamala and have happily discussed blowout numbers, But we already knew this was going to be close, and the margins will be small tonight. All that matters is 50%+1.

Calm down; it's going to be alright.

Eww Ted Cruz wins according to Fox News.

[436] you are high.

She's not winning.

Start the grieving process now.

If they both overperform as in who???

Dave Weigal on the Bulwark tonight notes that Trump is slightly overperfoming in many of his "safe" redder counties and with Latino/black males (we knew this), but Harris is expected to overperform in the urban ones and suburban ones in the swing Rust Belt. How much one cancels the other is the key question.

R437, as far as I can remember, New Mexico has been a Democratic stronghold.

Trolls and drama queens - typical DL election experience…

The NBC crew seems pretty happy. Maybe they know something.

It's all gonna boil down to MI and PA tonight. That's it, full stop. NV also still in play, for extra cushion. But it's MI and PA.

Yep, we thought a blowout. We were wrong. I would rather be in our position than his. He has to run the table.

[quote]One concern, Tim Kaine is only about 2% up with 95% in.

Kaine has already been declared the winner.

California has 54 Electoral votes

Illinois has 19 Electoral votes

Oregon has 8 Electoral votes

Washington has 12 Electoral votes

Hawaii has 4 electoral votes

That is 97 sure electoral votes for Harris

DJT stock up 22% after hours right now....wonder why?

[quote] It's all gonna boil down to MI and PA tonight. That's it, full stop. NV also still in play, for extra cushion. But it's MI and PA.

IF NC & Georgia are lost, Michigan & Pennsylvania won't be enough. Not even if Nevada is added to the mix. Wisconsin has 10 EVs, while Nevada only has 6 EVs.

Defacto at r441, what’s your basis for saying that?

Howard University watch party

Good reminder

yes everyone, please read r451 again. She's got nearly 100 electoral votes there.

r453 I think she pretty much has WI, that's why I didn't mention it. MI and PA were always more 'on the cusp'. NV will be a cushion, if she takes those two states.

Over 20 years at the DL, I've rarely blocked other posters.

Not tonight. I'm in no mood to put up with them

I've blocked at least 3 within the last 1/2 hour.

wisconsin back to keaning blue.

[quote] DJT stock up 22% after hours right now....wonder why?

It took a huge hit today, trading was stopped on it three times because everyone was selling

Elon could be buying, Putin could be buying, basically it is an easy stock to manipulate.

Be hopeful!

Harris steadily losing ground as rural Pennsyltucky slowly weighs in.

R450, I was referring more to his small margin of victory.

Too many voters think Trump is better for the economy. I don't know what has given them that idea.

[quote]Steve Kornacki

I see he ditched the beige khakis

R462 Which was ALWAYS going to happen. PA will be close. We know that.

She’s ahead in PA & MI and pulling ahead in WI. We have a woman president.

haven't blocked anybody Della, but I don't blame you. There is clearly a concerted effort to spread misery and despair by some of the posters here.

Let’s hope Kari Lake is gearing up for her next election. For Arizona Democrats, she’s the gift that keeps on giving.

The Apprentice, r464. Which was basically a fictional portrayal.

I went to bed four years ago thinking Trump had won.

I woke up the next day, pleasantly surprised.

Fingers crossed!

Re: Pennsylvania. Someone on ABC mentioned that Lackawanna, Luzerne and Northumberland have/had 7 hour wait lines. This is the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area.

I'll say again: this is what close feels like.

Now, fuckin' sing, you cunts.

Bakari Sellers@Bakari_Sellers·29m

RELAX

Trump wins Ohio, as expected.

You went to bed thinking Trump won when he was barely ahead 4 years ago? I remember that night. He was actually behind most of the night 🤣

Why do people keep lying?

By the way, everyone, let’s not forget the Times’ “needle” showed Hillary with a 90% chance of victory this time eight years ago.

How did that work out for the needle?

r453 you're not correct

Rachel Maddox: “We are in a state of no surprises here, as we’ve been all night.”

[quote] There is clearly a concerted effort to spread misery and despair by some of the posters here.

Exactly, r469. Plus, they're clogging the thread.

Question: whet Stacey Abrams, who did such a great job for Dems in Georgia in prior elections? is her absence somewhat to blame for Trump winning in GA?

R468- I just love your self assuredness. Someone just like you said he same thing to me in 2020 at nearly this very hour. I am counting on you.

I feel like I have an elephant sitting on my chest.

I am so ashamed of our country. And all of those voters at that Howard University party are KILLING me. Just all of those GOOD people. I dont know. This evening is really really bad.

R478- Just saw your post- thank you for that reminder!

That’s a lie, Defacto at r477. Trump was absolutely leading that night.

Detroit Free Press is showing that Harris is leading in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Harris has pulled close to Shitler on the economy R464. I hope the American people have finally woken up, looked at the economy over the last 50 years, and realize that Democrats are always better for the economy.

[quote]but Harris is expected to overperform in the urban ones and suburban ones in the swing Rust Belt. How much one cancels the other is the key question.

This has always been about the Rust Belt. PA, MI, and WI will decide the winner. That's what Hillary didn't understand, and it's why she lost.

My thoughts and prayers are with all decent, sane, non-rapist-loving Americans at this time. I hope things turn out ok for everyone except all those God-fearing Evangelical Christians who voted for the foul-mouthed rapist with the Golden toilet. They can go and fuck themselves before burning in the fiery depths of hell.

For anyone in need of an emotional breather, please find attached a video of Bailey the golden retriever meeting a basket full of puppies. His nonplussed attitude speaks to me at the moment.

I think PA will probably flip a few times throughout the night.

GA has tightened a bit.

[quote] Question: whet Stacey Abrams, who did such a great job for Dems in Georgia in prior elections? is her absence somewhat to blame for Trump winning in GA?

I think it is a factor

I don't yet feel like I'm sitting in a deck chair on the Titanic, so that's something.

And MSNBC has just switched MI, PA, and WI from "too early to call" to "too close to call".

But, Michigan Senate rate, while also "too close to call" is leaning toward Slotkin, the Democrat.

Ohio flipped to red.

How can they call races that are 1% margin, with 20% reporting?

I stopped watching MSNBC.

ABC has actually been far better

This is likely to be so close we actually won't know the outcome tonight, just like we didn't know the outcome in 2020 until Saturday. Biden did pull out the win eventually though.

“College campuses will be big in PA, WI and MI” - Claire McCaskill just now sounding encouraged.

From her mouth to God’s ear. 🙏🏻

Wisconsin numbers expert Craig Gilbert:

My ragu turned out wonderful, been dipping my baguette in it all night, also on my 2nd bottle of Coppola claret...no apologies.

[quote]Apparently, Florida has also rejected legalized weed and the abortion initiative tonight as well. A hard right turn apparently! This will need to be analyzed.

Unlike the other states that had abortion on the ballot in the past, Florida requires 60% of the vote to change the constitution. The pro-abortion measure got 57%. I believe every other state where abortion was re-legalized it happend with 50-60% of the vote.

Guys- Its official.

I'm gonna start showing off my pork chop on The Only Fans now that we have lost and our income taxes are going to increase, we will be living in a dictatorship, and there will be no social security.

Join me? Its only $20.00 a month and I am down for whatever, whenever.

Let's do this before RFK JR takes ownership of my paraplegic squirrel-

Delaware House seat decided.

Ohio, Florida and Texas are solid red. No Dem running for President has a shot there.

So depressing that it is so close. So many people in this country are willing to support that repulsive and dangerous felon for President. It’s hard to understand.

Harris is over performing Biden in the Atlanta suburbs. This is good.

Harris will win Georgia AND Pennsylvania. Maybe even N Carolina.

She will win but it will take at least another day.

God must really hate us. He’s punishing us isn’t he? These are trying times and my faith is being pushed to the limit. I don’t know how much more of this country I can take.

Ohio was close in 2020. It was barely red. This time it went RED.

White supremacy is still strong.

Trump ran on racism. He had no real policies.

R497 is a good sign, Dems flipped Michigan SC blue.

Is David Muir on?

he only had concepts of them

Ohio was declared an hour ago- lets move on. I think GA and NC are out too

PA-WI-MI-

And come on Nevada- please

R509- Folks like you make me so happy-

Imagine thinking a black woman will win in a country that wouldn’t elect a whites woman…. They would elect a white woman before they ever did a black woman.

What happened to critical and literal thinking?

can you rephrase that?

Going to go to bed in 30 mins. Whatever happens, I did everything I could and so did Kamala.

Good news coming on cue. Relax.

[quote] Ohio flipped to red.

Ohio was red & remains red. No flipping.

R509 If only. I wish I could have your faith.

R514, yes. ABC has about 12 people on set but only David, Prebuis and the guy at the board (Rick?) are talking.

We did elect a white woman, R517 - electoral college told us to fuck off

Maryland Senate results: Democrat Angela Alsobrooks defeats Larry Hogan!!

💙🤙

If anyone watches American Sport Story Aaron Hernandez and needs a break, there’s a new episode on now.

R520 xOXOOXOXOXO

WSB-TV@wsbtv·1h

Lucy McBath wins reelection, jumping back to represent GA’s 6th District

New York still hasn’t even closed.

GA not over yet! The huge Atlanta counties still have votes coming in, and Harris is outperforming Biden there. Whether she can eke out a tiny victory (Biden won GA by 11k votes in 2020) is still to be seen! Don't give up yet.

As a non-American, I'm just amazed that it's even this close, I probably shouldn't be, but I still am.

[quote] And come on Nevada- please

In your scenario, giving her the Rust Belt states, Harris doesn't need Nevada.

[quote]“College campuses will be big in PA, WI and MI” - Claire McCaskill just now sounding encouraged.

Claire said her contacts regarding the Senate races in those three states are "feeling good".

Trump and Harris pretty much lived in Pennsylvania for the last month.

It’s party over country. The GOP could literally nominate a piece of turd and the republicans will vote for it.

[quote] R453, you're not correct

How so, R479?

Trump ahead in WI and PA now

The folks at The Bulwark: "I think we can assume that many Americans just want a different kind of government than what we have." i.e. an authoritarian system.

They haven't given up on a Harris win with all the Blue Wall states going for her.

Amazing how half the country forgot the rapes, the coup attempt, the financial crimes, the impeachments, and on and on

[quote]As a non-American, I'm just amazed that it's even this close, I probably shouldn't be, but I still am.

As an American, I'm amazed when I see locations be 80%+ for one candidate. That can't be healthy for democracy.

Kevin Liptak (CNN):

[quote] Audie, that's been a striking piece of information to emerge today. As our colleague Jim Acosta just reported on air, Nevada election officials are saying young voters don't have any experience signing their own names, and thus can't match their signatures for verification purposes.

What's going on in NM?

I don't get why Kornacki is so focused on Lackawanna County. That was Joe Biden's home county. Of course Harris was expected to lose a point or two.

Or worse, r539, they liked all that shit.

Trump is now ahead in PA

According to the NYTimes, this thing is over.

Right now they give Trump a 75% chance of winning the election.

Harry Enten:

[quote] Here's why we could be here for a while: There are 3 counties in Pennsylvania with 95% or more of the vote in. They're all rural. Trump is doing less than half a point better in them. That would suggest a razor-tight finish in the Commonwealth, which was decided by a little over a point in 2020.

They didn’t forget, R539 - they just don’t care

Gen Z didn’t want to vote because of Save Palestine.

They literally just ended Palestine tonight,

I said PA will probably flip back and forth throughout the night.

R539 or they know the truth about Kamala. Locked up more black people in California than anyone else. She was locking up black men for weed. She had parents locked up whose kids were missing school. People know.

Manu Raju:

[quote] Harris is, at the moment, behind Biden's numbers in Big Ten college towns. In Wisconsin's Dane County, home of course to the one and only University of Wisconsin-Madison, and in Michigan's Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor and the University of Michigan. For Harris, it's critical to run up the score there to carry those two battlegrounds.

R542 It's purple state with a lot of conservative Evangelical and conservative Catholics.

Ignore the holy God-Damned [italic]New York Times.[/italic]

R549 what are you even talking about? They were speaking about how many college students voted this election

So much for Selzer though.

I just posted part 3, please fill up this thread first. I’ve never gotten so drunk so fast. Keep the faith!

Lies R551

IL and CO got called for Kamala.

[quote]According to the NYTimes, this thing is over. Right now they give Trump a 75% chance of winning the election.

NY Times had said the same about Hillary

Two words, r546...Dewey Truman

R558 I’m so sick of hearing “LIES” shouted. Do some fucking research.

25% of Black men voted Republican in GA according to some sources.

Which is up from 8% in 2020

I think the huge voting numbers in Philly and the suburbs today bode well for Harris, even if Trump outperforms by a tiny margin in the rural PA counties.

It's MI I'm slightly worried about - she shouldn't be underperforming in the college towns. MI is essential tonight.

r563 that explains a LOT about the vote tonight. This will require some analysis in the coming weeks and months. Why did they flip to Trump?

Trump up by only 40 votes in AZ according to Associated Press. MSNBC is behind.

Kornacki is a dipshit. He focuses on whatever county or state his on-the-spectrum brain tells him. Why would anyone listen to him?

A couple of other things to add about New Mexico is that racism is quite common in many areas in the southern part of the state. Misogyny is an issue in many communities in the state, there are times I still amazed that Michelle Lujan Grisham is on her second term as governor. Many people are quite nasty about her on social media.

Big money now put Harris chance at 10%.....

DJT stock up 33%

Told you again, as I have for weeks....big money knows before you do.

Once more Democrats pour millions of dollars of campaign donations down the drain in Texas. Millions of dollars that could have been used in campaigns where it could make a difference.

Election results LIVE: AP race calls, electoral map, Trump and Harris .

R565 because KAMALA HARRIS PUT MORE BLACK MEN IN PRISON WHILE A PROSECUTOR THAN ANYONE ELSE IN HER DISTRICT. She locked up black men for petty crimes, nothing serious. She targeted low income households. There is so much lore to Kamala that is ignored.

Gender trumps race for many black and Hispanic men. So don’t assume we’ll be free of MAGA when the US becomes less white.

One thing I’ve learned is that democrats are the loudest but republicans are the silent killers. We may be outspoken and our crowd sizes are enthusiastic, but they don’t translate into votes. The Republicans otoh are voting in droves. We can’t even depend on gen Z to vote.

Harry Enten:

[quote] As more Pennsylvania counties have 95%+ in, Trump is now outperforming himself from four years by about a point. That would be enough to win if it continues into more counties. Of course, plenty of vote to be counted. But this is a good development for Trump.

Well, assuming any spending actually makes a difference r571, which I think even campaign operatives have never been entirely sure of. I've seen a ton of political ads in the past few months. Like most, I suspect, I tune them all out.

R569 everything you just said can be said of every state.

[quote]NY Times had said the same about Hillary

No they did not. Not on Election night. By 10:PM on election night, that needle started sliding.

Kornacki says there will be a huge vote dump from Philadelphia mail-in ballots, that won't be released until around midnight. Which could significantly boost Kamala's numbers then.

Selzer's reputation is now officially gone.

Phil Mattingly:

[quote] Manu, you can add Centre County in PA to your Big Ten Trump overperformance column. It's not nearly the Dem stronghold as Dane and Washtenaw, but it's home to State College and Penn State and a place where Trump actually held a rally 10 days before the election. He's currently leading there by 3+ points with 57% reporting. Biden won it by nearly 5 points.

What is this Big Money thing this person keeps bringing up?

R575 only many of them voted. Those lines in Philly were almost all college students

Ugh. Please not Trump again. He’ll bring all his chaos back in the White House with Elon, Tucker, JD, Bannon, Miller, etc.

Trump ahead 2% in PA. This does not look good. I have a terrible feeling

[Quote] We can’t even depend on gen Z to vote.

Yes you can.

Young people don’t vote. It was true of boomers, Gen x and millennials.

Gen Z is the same, but they’re actually voting in higher percentages than earlier generations.

I'm hearing Chuck Todd actually speaking some sense. Incredible.

R575 MAGA is a very, very LOUD killer. No?

He's a media brand, a comedian, a cartoon machoman. And America may want a dictatorship. It's hard to understand.

But it's not over - Blue Wall still in play.

I take no pleasure in knowing that too many of my fellow Americans are dummies.

R582 Why?? The quad city vote isn't even in yet. I'm still ridin' with Selzer.

Harris outperforming Biden in Allegheny County, PA (Pittsburgh)

Abby Phillip:

[quote] This is a map that is shaping up to be extremely close (as expected). So far, Trump seems to be performing well in places that he needs to be -- in many cases better than he did in 2020. Possibly, Harris' saving grace is outstanding vote in large urban areas and suburbs. But we'll have to wait to see those votes.

Dana Bash:

[quote] I keep hearing two words from Team Harris: dead heat.

She has to hold PA plus one of GA, NC or WI. An additional win in anything else is gravy.

[quote]Those lines in Philly were almost all college students

How many were the bro vote?

A lot of bad will happen if rump wins. Starting with women’s rights

R589, what did he say?

DJT stock up???? 😂😂😂😂😂 Nope. Even though Putin and Musk have bought this stock to help IQ45? It’s a losing stock!!!!

Q3 earnings are millions of loss. Nothing props it up.

Fox has Trump ahead in PA, VA, NC and GA.

"I'm hearing Chuck Todd actually speaking some sense. Incredible."

...what did he say.

Why do people post stuff like this? God I hate them.

He wins and gets away with everything.

[quote]The quad city vote isn't even in yet. I'm still ridin' with Selzer.

NBC just called Iowa for Trump.

DJT now up 41%

Harris chance down to 9%

[quote]I keep hearing two words from Team Harris: dead heat.

The same thing I've been saying for weeks, despite all the postings of others of someone being up or down a point.

r596 the bro vote ain't coming from college boys.

300k+ votes about to come out of Gwinnett County, GA any minute now.

That Selzer woman, what's her deal? She was totally wrong.

I don’t see doom yet but this is fucking stressful. It’s all looking like a potentially very tight finish… and it’s all looking like the pollsters and polling averages were much more correct than not.

Bette Midler on X:

I think WI is lost

[quote] I think WI is lost

Milwaukee county holds all it's absentee votes and doesn't even count them until until it reports its in person voting on election day.

Listening to Claire on NBC ... it's over.

Well, I was feeling optimistic about the battleground states, but now getting nervous about MI, PA, WI. Damn. I should go to bed, I'll never get any sleep if I keep watching this.

Yeah I know, they'll flip multiple times.

Remember in 2020 we didn't know the outcome until Saturday.

R613, who is Clair? And how am I still able to post on this thread when a got a Thread closed message earlier.

[quote]He was actually behind most of the night 🤣

No, he WASN'T, fuckhead. The tide didn't start turning until after midnight.

The Arizona abortion initiative is leading by a nearly 2-1 margin.