*OFFICIAL ELECTION THREAD 2024*: The Beastmaster Slays the Ass

Im declassifying this thread as official. I’m jailbreaking it!

Agree with r1

Thanks OP. I can’t wait!!! 24 short hours from now we’ll have a real sense of it all.

Boom crunch

Here's the OFFICIAL ELECTION THREAD 2024 - PAGE 2; The Anticipator Butts in Line

... er, um, nevermind...

Dicksville Notch. But no Buttsville Crack? No Vagetown Gash? No Tittycity Hills? No Mussy Mound Park?

Get with it, New Hampshire.

Less than one hour to go.

The vote will 12-5. Plus or minus 3

This site will have a live stream of the voting in Dixville Notch, NH.

[quote]With a population of just six registered voters this year, the voting process in Dixville Notch takes less than a minute.

Bill Kristol was on the Bulwark broadcast and said Harris will win and we will know unofficially by midnight.

Tied in Dixville Notch.

Even Dixville Notch is 50/50, 3 votes each.

That buttresses the assertion that the electorate is evenly split, and the election could go either way.

Sure it does—-mein Gott

Dixville Notch Register pollster J. Off Seltzer got it wrong this time.

With 6 people, surely the trump campaign was able to blackmail/bribe 3 of them.

Van should be a DL icon, if only for being openly & notoriously homosexual …ahead of his time.

Oops

Last Nate Silver simulations revealed.

Out of 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won in 40,012 (50.015%) cases

Six people in a NH village tell you nothing about the electorate, R13.

Dixville Notch voted for Hillary in 2016 and Mitt Romney in 2012. It's just six votes. Keep Kamala and carry onala.

Bottom Lick, KY has closed their polls

If she wins, Freeperville is going to be so much fun.

There were five votes for Biden in 2020. Does that mean some of them switched to Trump this year?

Is it all over yet?

How can someone fuck up a 6 person poll

Dave Wasserman chimes in.

Dixville Notch is Junior's nickname for Kimbo Gargoyle's pussy.

I think we haven’t thought nearly enough about these six people in a country of 350,000,000. We need to consult them about all choices regarding our nation.

How can you vote for trump after his actions and words over the last week? Let alone the last decade.

Bloody nervous today with this sea of speculation.

R31, yes, although there is reason to be encouraged across multiple metrics that things have improved for Kamala over the past week, it's very nerve-wracking, isn't it? 😬

I remember back during the Obama elections when I used to post here for hours on all of the polling threads, and although it was a lot of work, it wasn't that hard to predict the outcome because it was pretty obvious he was going to win. I miss those days.

Now it is much more difficult to read the polling tea leaves.

This could really be a painfully close election.

R32 welcome back babe! Everyone's been looking for you! What's the verdict?

POLL TROLL IS BACK AMONG US!!!

R34, it's risky to make a verdict now, but as David Axelrod posted earlier tonight, "In my experience, when campaigns have momentum on the final weekend, it tends to carry through on Election Day."

Poll troll! How we have missed you!

Glad you're back!

Notes from elsewhere on these six randos up in Dixville Notch:

- average age 66, five white & one asian, no word on gender

- post Covid they had to scramble to get somebody to legally move there so they could still keep their polling location with minimum 5 residents

PollTroll, a delight to have you back with us on this historic and stressful day!

I read that it was 4 republicans and 2 independents.

So that means that she is sweeping independents and converting repugs.

Go Kamala!

Have some class, r40.

Really R40. Your blood pressure will be shot by midnight. Stay calm...breathe.

Damn that was the fasted FF I have ever seen on DL. Literally 1 minute.

[post redacted because linking to dailymail.co.uk clearly indicates that the poster is either a troll or an idiot (probably both, honestly.) Our advice is that you just ignore this poster but whatever you do, don't click on any link to this putrid rag.]

R44 again. Kindly ignore Muriel's claptrap about the DailyMail. They got a photo of the actual six voters, and they're white people in their 60s, evenly split by gender.

Lord Rothermere, the founder of The Daily Mail, with his best German friend

Non-fascist rag alternative.

R47 thank you.

I refuse to click on a website that hates me.

BBC's live feed format is great for days like today (and weekend footie, but that's another thread).

Thanks R47, I could’ve tried harder but it was near top of search results and I still need coffee. Will not post from them again. I forgot how you get called names if you do! And apologies for any offense R48.

Not at all. The Mail is especially vile. Really appreciate you taking my ribbing in the spirit it was given. Because DL is such an old site that indexes on Google, it has a lot of authority and helps with SEO.

Western PA weather today: sunny and upper-70s. Great for voter turnout!

R1 Ooh you rebel!

Unsigned, Poll Troll has never left the DL. He has half of the posts in the current Shawn Mendes Comes Out thread.

He sounds very dire about Harris. I’m guessing that’s the reason for his poll silence while still posting about Shawn’s pole (and hole!).

The betting markets are still favoring Trump...if you want to make some money?

Distilled Notch - think the 3 women voted for Kamala, regardless of party affiliation?

I bet on sports, but I just can't bring myself to bet on the election. It just doesn't feel ethically right to bring that kind of personal stake in the direction of the country and people's lives.

If you believe that the polls are likely accurate, and Poll Troll might — then hell yes this is stressful.

I subscribed to that thinking over the summer into mid October, but there are compelling arguments for believing Kamala will beat the polls. Some of the pollsters are Trump-friendly bad actors, and even the more legit ones have been modeling their demographics for a replica of the 2020 electorate. But we know that women are likely to really show up in a record-setting way this time.

So - quick scratch pad math. Take the scary tied polls in the battleground states. Then move 2 points from Trump to Harris for the 2024 shift in gender happening now which, again, is not being reflected in most 2024 polling. Then move another 1 point from Trump to Harris for the vast gap in their “ground game” — size, organization and commitment of volunteers knocking on doors and sending postcards and phone banking.

This, if true, would deliver all battleground states for Harris except maybe not Arizona.

I could be wrong, but to quote the trite pop hit, I’ve got a feeling, tonight’s gonna be a good night.

I’ve been aligned with your thinking most of the way, Torta, & everything you note may be enough to carry the day, but the one million deficit in Pennsylvania Democratic early voting from 2020 - while the Republican early vote has remained essentially constant both years - gives me, yes, great concern. Harris may well need to sweep North Carolina & Georgia.

R52 Just back from voting! We were in line behind three first-time voting college girls. Save us, Swifties!

So glad you're here today, Torta.

Wouldn't that be ironic: Taylor Swift Saves Democracy! But that's okay - I'll take it

All the hosts & distinguished guests on Morning Joe this morning are making a strong case for Harris & condemning Trump. Wish we had seen a lot more of this unambiguous analysis before today - on every network. In general, the press has been complicit in normalizing Trump’s outrageous & unacceptable behavior by people who know better.

R63, the media had nothing to gain by letting anyone believe there was a clear winner. Gotta keep those clicks coming to pay the bills.

R59, I know! That does look concerning. But the deficit is less threatening if you understand PA and if you remember 2020.

There’s no actual early in-person voting in PA. There’s only the ability to drop off your completed mail in ballot. And remember we were in a pandemic in Nov 2020. Democrats cared more about that, and about avoiding Election Day lines, than Republicans did. Lots of Harris voting people I know, self included, are psyched to vote today. It feels good.

I can’t believe I might have to relive 2016 all over again. Trump running against a woman who picked a guy name Tim as VP. It’s all too much. I need lots of alcohol.

Rick Wilson posted a lengthy clip on Twitter before getting on the Acela to DC last night. Said Harris was definitely going to win, it would be a blowout AND that Trump’s campaign manager LaCivita was kicked off Trump’s plane by Corey Lewondowski. (Yeah, misspellings)

Courage, R66, courage! (channeling Winston Churchill voice)

Poll Troll I just want to thank you for all your posts over the years, but especially 2012. I am so saddened to hear about what your family has been through recently and don’t let anyone shame you for enjoying some silly gossip at a stressful time.

Also, so glad to share this special day with my fellow Loungers.

Fingers, toes crossed, Torta!

Go Kamala!!!

Inhope youre right r10

Poll Troll, just wanted to add to the good wishes for you and your family and to say I have missed your insights over the last several months. Thanks, Torta, for stepping up to the plate this time. Hoping for the only sensible outcome of this day for all Americans and indeed the rest of us outside of the US.

That Dixie Notch result is giving me huge doubts that Kamala will pull a win

It's an easy result to "influence", but I hear you.

R74 Why? The 2 undeclared & 1 of the 3 Republicans voted for her. Probably the 3 women. Such a tiny sample of only SIX people is meaningless anyway!

R65 is right, my friends/family are all voting for Kamala. In 2020 nearly everyone voted by mail, this year nearly everyone is back to voting in person.

[quote] That Dixie Notch result is giving me huge doubts that Kamala will pull a win

The results made a big splash on X. Its’s still a trending topic. It looks like it may be a motivator for people to vote today since it is reinforcing belief that the election could go either way.

At least, or at last, my spam folder is no longer filled with dozens of political emails, as of 8 am—only 5 overnight

R78 that’s quality trolling you’re doing there

Yes, R79, the fundraising texts have finally gone quiet. Thankfully.

Interesting prediction from Twitter (unrolled) that Dems will win President, Senate & House. It could happen!

^ R82 I'm a politics junkie and am not familiar with Stephen Leuchtman, does he have relevance/credibility? Not meant as a diss - genuinely asking.

He’s a Montana pollster. See his Rwitter and draw your own conclusions.

Is it over, or is it just beginning?

Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy night

Huge early turnout in Cuyahoga County ( Cleveland) today; long lines and steady stream of voters. Especially good news for Sherrod Brown and Issue 1 ( to eliminate gerrymandering in the state).

Definitely just beginning R85!

Alex Thompson from Axios is giving something for everyone. First for Harris

Then for Trump

And that’s precisely how Alex Thompson (and Nate Cohn) typifies insider bothsidesism. One way or another, his group is irrelevant after today. Kamala didn’t need them, and Trump will kill them.

I've posted this on other threads, but I still don't understand why pollsters and commentators are strictly using 2020 as the template, ignoring the more recent elections where Democratic turnout was underestimated. Do they think the influence of Dobbs and Jan. 6 has just evaporated? (Or maybe they *are* taking that into account, and I just have seen those analyses.)

Okay, rereading the tweet at R89 I think I see why they're assuming a 2020 model: Trump is himself on the ballot again, and they're afraid they're underestimating his power to bring out his supporters again.

But look at his rallies this past month! He can't bring his supporters out to those in the numbers he did in 2020, and the pandemic's over. I just sense this stuck-in-2020 mentality among the pundits that I don't get.

And this is anecdotal, but I've only seen one pickup truck this year with Trump flags/paraphernalia riding up and down Virginia Street. In 2020, they were all over the place for weeks before the election. I really think Trump doesn't have the support he had 4 years ago.

Never heard of David O Atkins, from Cali, until today, but this thread is very uplifting, analytically detailed and a must-read:

R94, could you copy his comments here for those of us who don't use X?

NYT: "The Polls Are Close. The Results Might Not Be. We are just a very normal polling error away from either candidate landing a decisive victory on Tuesday."

I think that covers every possibility. LOL.

I do understand they have to have something to write about until actual results come in. Just kinda funny.

He says nothing you can read in a hundred other places: Harris has been underestimated in polling—missing her depth among older women and those concerned about abortion, etc. etc.

The polls are garbage. Ignore.

Voter turnout and exit polling are more important at this point.

The editor of the Nevada Independent is predicting wins for Harris & Rosen there. A lot of mail-in ballots for Clark County have yet to be processed, and those go heavily Democratic. Apparently he has a good track record with predictions.

Not apparently. In fact, he does.

On the personal anecdote side my formerly MAGA uncle hates Trump now so I do have some genuine hope - if my moron uncle can change anybody can!

[quote] That Dixie Notch result is giving me huge doubts that Kamala will pull a win

A novelty town with six voters where the vote was split has you doubtful?

You were always picked last in team sports, correct?

A little unrelated humor that seems somehow relevant.

NH overall is expected to go 60% for Harris, btw.

The voting patterns of a tiny little mountain hamlet is a novelty, not a harbinger.

Dixie Notch would make a good drag queen moniker.

[quote]The voting patterns of a tiny little mountain hamlet are a novelty, not a harbinger.

Oh dear! Fixed my own grammar at r104.

How could anyone be worried about Dixie Notch? Six voters, 5 republicans and 1 independent, all Haley voters and we get 3/3. That's pretty fucking good news.

Unfortunately, this morning, the stock market, bond market and bitcoin are still pricing in a Trump win.

Which means shit.

R108 is running out of troll material.

Just voted! The vibe here (very pro-Harris community) was super friendly and hopeful.

Because the finance industry, gambling industry, and bitcoin freaks are overwhelmingly female progressive.

I like your jacket, R11.

Shit, I meant R111! The stress has fried my brain already.

It was a blue-on-blue kinda day, Sylvia!

Torta, I think you have a sexy neck. I cropped mine out of my Election Day selfie, finding it too wattly-looking.

[quote] he stock market, bond market and bitcoin

One of the Winklevoss mutants just posted that Harris will cost bitcoin millions in legal fees, Trump, zero.

These finance guys have not made a single fucking accurate prediction about the economy, much less politics.

More important than the election... Happy Birthday, Tilda Swinton!

R32, you just made my day! Where have you been? xoxoxoxooxoxoxoxoxoxoxoxo

We'll sing My Favourite Things if that's what it fucking takes.

Calm down, bitches!

[quote]One of the Winklevoss mutants just posted that Harris will cost bitcoin millions in legal fees, Trump, zero.

They made a massive fortune for literally standing around in a room being douchebags.

I am a single issue voter and my issue is I do not want Elon Musk to be happy ever again.

R121. re “calm down, bitches”, ha. If any one single day has ever merited a Big Ol’ Mary exemption pass for us all, it’s today!

That's as good a reason as any.

Why is Anderson C already on CNN this am? Is he going to do the late shift too?

Good luck, America. You beat Trump once, you can do it again. Give him the humiliation of being the first person to ever lose two US general elections.

Fuck you, R127!

I posted this on the polls thread… had my teeth cleaned this morning and the office is run by four women including the dentist. All four voted first thing in the morning in person for Kamala, after having voted by mail in 2020. Of course this is anecdotal, but I think it’s a good harbinger of in-person voting going to Kamala.

Fuck you, r128!

A-Coop will pull his standard 24-hour shift at CNN so he can be at the center of attention, on their biggest viewing day of the year. Election Day is like the Super Bowl for new networks.

Fuck you… er… a few of you anyway.

new = news @ r131

The sun is setting over here in Europe. Not much longer now, America.

Will Van Jones cry tonight? That is the question.

Can he cry into my lap?

Of course, r135. That's a given. Question is what time will the waterworks begin? He starts getting punchy around 10 PM.

R135 Out of sadness?

Van cries when he's happy and relieved more often than not.

That's another question. WHAT will he be crying over?

What will sour lemon face Dana Bash's thoughts be when Kamala wins?

Voting machines not working in Cambria County, PA. Ugh, and so it begins. "RIGGED! STOLEN!"

Fuckery going on in Pennsylvania. Cambria County will keep polls open until 10pm.

This is primarily a Republican county, run by Republicans.

My voting machine this morning was "not working" in that the power wouldn't go on to make the machine grab the paper ballot out of the envelope and secret it away inside, so we were just pushing them into a drawer-like area with our hands. Blue area, blue state.

Welcome back PollTroll!!! Trying to keep calm and carry on-ala.

[Quote] Because the finance industry, gambling industry, and bitcoin freaks are overwhelmingly female progressive.

I hope this was an attempt at satire. All extremely butch and rightwing.

BBC's live feed is saying five bomb threats were phoned into Fulton County, Georgia.

Just got back from voting here in NC. I’m very lucky with my polling station- it’s in a high school about a mile from my house, it’s never taken me more than 15 minutes to get in and out (today it took 8), and it’s always been civil.

There were only five people outside the entrance. One offered me a republican ballot. I said no thank you. Another offered a democratic ballot. I said no thanks. They both said okay and that was that. In 2020 and 2016 there were definitely way more people out there (and obvious trumpers). It was nice and quiet today. I was never really worried about trouble, but there’s always the possibility. Glad it’s done.

Also, I only saw two Trump signs on the way in to the school. There was, no exaggeration, at least 60 Harris/Walz signs lining the entrances and the intersection before the school. That made me so happy to see. Go blue!

Reportedly there's massive turnout today in Philly. This is great news!

R149, it is great news. I remember driving in torrential rain to vote for Hillary in 2016, and that’s when I got my first sense of foreboding.

[quote] NH overall is expected to go 60% for Harris, btw.

Not according to 538.

I voted weeks ago but just walked by a voting location and saw a queen sashay out of building with the biggest smile on his face. As it stands, I know Harris has at least two votes.

[quote] Fuckery going on in Pennsylvania. Cambria County will keep polls open until 10pm.

[quote] This is primarily a Republican county, run by Republicans.

It's only a guess, but I'm thinking this extension won't be used by Trump as example the election is rigged.

Torta, the news about Philly is the best news, yet, today.

Great news about Philly. Kamala can not win without Pennsylvania. Even with it, it will be tought. Without it, hopeless.

..tough

Ignore any anecdotal reports as to turn-out. Meaningless information.

That’s third-hand info….useless.

I already had R153 thru R156 blocked. Assuming they are reporting pro-Trump news.

[quote] Great news about Philly. Kamala can not win without Pennsylvania. Even with it, it will be tought. Without it, hopeless.

She can make up for Pennsylvania by winning both Georgia & NC ... & holding on to the other Rust Belt states.

There's nothing remotely Trumpy about R153 or R154. R155 is somewhat disingenuous—Harris does have paths open without PA, and with PA her path isn't all that tough (according to current polling).

[quote] I already had [R153] thru [R156] blocked. Assuming they are reporting pro-Trump news.

lol. Looking at the replies she mentioned, r159 showed what a nutjob she is.

The odds of that happening are slim to none. R160

r159 was previously blocked on my part. 🚫

Some false positive blockers here.

“We are now one day away from having to wait another week to find out who won the election. It feels like the whole country is waiting to get the results of a biopsy.”

— Jimmy Kimmel

People have varying standards.

Mathematically and hypothetically yes, it is possible Harris to win the Presidency without PA, but realistically, no -- these things tend to move in concert with one another.

It is hard to imagine a scenario where she loses PA yet wins GA or NC or AZ. Same goes for Trump, if he loses PA then he almost certainly loses MI and WI and it's game over for him.

[quote]Give him the humiliation of being the first person to ever lose two US general elections.

Hello!

R168 exactly.

[quote] Give him the humiliation of being the first person to ever lose two US general elections.

Losing only twice is amateur.

R168 I kind of see it as - if Harris wins the states she'd need to win without PA (NC, GA) she's going to win PA.

Still, anything can happen. I am starting to get uncomfortable about how it seems so apparent Harris will win... it'd be a shock now if she didn't.

I'll have what R172 is smoking.

Why is that implausible, R173? The finals polls do Trump an advantage in NC and GA, but so slight (within 1 percentage point) that given a bit of momentum and a good D turnout Harris could get them.

Arizona is the only swing state we have a chance of losing. PA is in the bag. As soon as I saw that women had a 13% lead in early voting I knew we had it locked.

It does feel like more news commentary is leaning toward Kamala now, but the bitter memory of Hilary’s surprising loss still haunts me.

I think we all have PTSD from that, R176. I hope today’s outcome goes a long way toward healing it.

It felt great to vote! Now I have started drinking. Here we go.

R174 because she needs older educated whites, and Blacks, to win PA. If she doesn’t get them there, she is almost certainly not going to get enough of them in NC or GA.

R178, I have opened the wine. I will either be celebrating or wondering how the fuck the world is going to cope I am cautiously optimistic that it will be the first but very on edge about it all.

I know plenty of stupid white women in Philly voting for Trump. Just because women are voting doesn’t mean they’re voting for Kamala.

[quote] Why is that implausible, [R173]?

That you'd be "shocked" if Harris doesn't win? Especially after '16, & how much closer Trump did than the polls imagined, "shocked" is a mighty strong word with what evidence we have.

[quote] PA is in the bag. As soon as I saw that women had a 13% lead in early voting I knew we had it locked.

We're looking at different data. I'm more focused on the one million deficit in Pennsylvania Democratic early voting from what is was in 2020. Can a huge Philly turnout today make up the difference? Perhaps. But it's anything but "in the bag."

There were about thirty Trumpers electioneering outside my polling place with their “take America back” flags and the “honk if you too want to eat trumps excrement” signs. State rule is you have to be a hundred feet away, but there really should be a quarter mile radiius around polling sites. It’s intimidating seeing those clowns and hearing all the passersby honking and hollering. I’m in a blue state, so I know there is more Harris support abounding than Trump, but it’s disheartening seeing how visible the Trump love is. It makes me worry that we’re overestimating Harris’s chances. I just keep reminding myself that those people are a cult, and that even at the height of Obama’s popularity there were never throngs of democrats hooting and hollering and waving flags on the side of the road and wearing “Fuck McCain” merch. Hopefully it’s the case the the losing dog barks the loudest.

The voter saying she’s voting for Trump because he’s more authoritative and Kamala is too sweet because she laughs on stage. Make it make sense

R179, I was responding to this observation:

[quote] if Harris wins the states she'd need to win without PA (NC, GA) she's going to win PA

You seem to be agreeing with it now. Or were you dismissing Harris's general chances?

Philly had big Trump fan rallies last night with fans in parks and on the side of the road holding signs making cars honk their horns.

Where were you r183? What state and location?

Philly meatballs.

R185 no. I posted twice to the effect that there’s a much greater likelihood of her winning PA. Conversely, if she loses PA she ain’t gonna win either GA or NC. I stand by that argument.

Some people vote in high schools in Philly. Because they’re usually up on the second floor, Trumpers can hit you up with propaganda at the door. They’re technically the exact amount of feet away from the voting booth. It sucks.

[quote] Kamala can not win without Pennsylvania. Even with it, it will be tought. Without it, hopeless.

Bullshit.

[quote] The odds of that happening are slim to none. [R160]

More bullshit from the bullshitter.

Trump signs all over Chinatown in Philly.

Posted all over Chinatown this morning

I thought church’s were not allowed to promote candidates?

Translated:

Dear Compatriots, what do you want? I want Donald J. Trump

• Safe communities, stop illegal immigration

• Lower living costs, stimulate the economy

• Exemption from taxes for elderly pensions, free education

• World peace, no war

• Freedom of speech, no political persecution

• Technological development, honor and dignity

Protecting families, only Trump

MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN

On the right side:

• “Harris administration disaster”

• Weakness and defeat, broken policies

• Incompetence, making enemies everywhere

• Failure in all directions, full of mistakes

• High inflation, large-scale political persecution

• Crime rate soaring, hundreds of thousands dead

“$1500 billion+ (debt increase of 2.14 trillion), dead people filling the streets! Americans don’t want to see this!”

Contact:

• “Zero morals, lacks conscience”

• Contact information: “Pastor Li Mingyu”

• Phone number and WeChat

• Victory Christian Church

Signs don’t mean anything.

Co-worker of mine said there were people outside her voting place taking photos of license plates and threatening old people to vote for Trump. These intimidation tactics are absurd and these people should be arrested on the spot. R183 you'd never hear Obama/Biden/Harris supporters doing shit like that.

What state are you in, R195?

r123 I cannot understand Trump voters who think the richest man in the world is on their side, understands their struggles , has their best interests at heart and isn't part of the elite. He doesn't gi e a shit about them and if he was carrying on like this but supporting the Dems they'd be calling him a globalist shill and part of a big conspiracy etc

[quote] I cannot understand Trump voters who think the richest man in the world is on their side, understands their struggles , has their best interests at heart and isn't part of the elite.

He wasn't the richest man in the world, but FDR was certainly in the elite. Poor and working people felt he understood their struggle, so it’s not a stretch to understand that other rich and elite people can engender that same feeling.

R197, he hates who they hate. That's enough for them.

The Kennedys are another example of compassionate rich people.

r198 None of Musks behaviour correlate with giving a damn about ordinary people. Just look how he treats his employees. What Musk says and what he does are clearly very different.

[quote]We're looking at different data. I'm more focused on the one million deficit in Pennsylvania Democratic early voting from what is was in 2020. Can a huge Philly turnout today make up the difference? Perhaps. But it's anything but "in the bag."

You really are locked in on this, aren't you? Even after others have explained the possible reasons for the deficit, you still hang on to it. Turn the page, dude.

r200 True but their supporters don't deny their part of the elite whereas Musks cheerleaders do. The richest man in the world is by definition is part of the elite.

Interesting Twitter thread about reasons Republicans give for not voting for Trump. Hope there are a whole lot more like them.

[quote] One offered me a republican ballot. I said no thank you. Another offered a democratic ballot. I said no thanks.

What is this? never heard of it.

7:15 a.m. my polling place line was too long for me to vote and also get to an appointment.

10:30 a.m., again a long line. An hour later, I voted.

Here's to another Blue Wave in Pennsylvania! 🌊

R195, I don't believe that person.

R207, it's true. My coworker is a goodie two shoes that does not lie.

R186, So what? Did you check the Art Museum?

R205, Samples of what the slates look like.

Georgia is now expecting a total of 5.3 million votes, as opposed to a little under 5m in 2020. Fulton County (Atlanta) is getting a big turnout—as is Philadelphia (which by 11 this morning already had more than 2/3 of the total 2020 vote).

R205, it is a flyer listing a slate of candidates endorsed by the parties or aligned PACs. In places where commissioners, judges, or other elected officials run in non-partisan races, in which you don’t declare a party allegiance, it is a way to tell voters where the candidates stand ideologically.

Well, R202, facially at least, the best explanation for why the margin was so much smaller for Democrats than it was in '20 was that more Republicans engaged in early voting this year. But that's not what the data shows. In fact, early voting this year among registered Republicans somewhat declined (586,764 from 623,404).

R210, so how does it differ by party? Why would they do it?

R214, see my post at R212 for your answer. Judges in my state used to run without naming their party affiliation but that has recently changed. My county commission is nonpartisan, as is my soil and water board who set environmental policy for the county.

Anyone who thinks Kamala is a good president is delusional.

Thank you for sharing, r216.

It’s a party-based “cheat sheet” for people, often where there’s a long ballot. It’s been done everywhere, forever. Not an issue.

In NYC, I saw it due to the one state measure and five City measures on the ballot. Makes voting quicker.

🚫🚫🚫🚫🚫🚫🚫

Happy Last Day of Political Commercials, everyone!

R216 And what of the people who think Kamala Harris is the president?

FF R216 For one thing, Kamala hasn’t been President yet. For another thing, you sound sexist - and ignorant. Finally, I get that you’re trying to be provocative, but it’s annoying

[quote] Anyone who thinks Kamala is a good president is delusional.

Oh, dear.

Maybe the final poll this cycle, conducted Saturday-Sunday.

[quote] “Harris leads Trump among independents (+13), women (+12), those older than 65 (+19), suburban voters (+6), large city voters (+20), and young women (+35). Trump, on the other hand, leads Harris among first-time voters (+8), the under 30 vote (+2), men (+6), small city voters (+4), the rural vote (+19), Hispanics (+5), and young men (+39),” reports John Zogby, Senior Partner.

[quote] Trump has made inroads with the Black vote (19%), and Harris looks like she has sealed the deal with independents who are concerned about the economy and the border. Take note, 7% of these unaffiliated are still undecided,” says Jeremy Zogby.

[quote] “I’m particularly struck by the 74-point gender gap separating young men and young women. The notable education gap is 32 points between those with a college degree and those without. According to John Zogby, the key takeaway is “a serious demographic realignment between the two parties appears to be taking place.“

Let's cut R216/DeFuckto some slack. There's very little to look forward to in his sad life and he needs some copium.

That's r216's only post, r222. I'm not going to waste a precious F/F on it.

James Carville right now on the Joe Trippi podcast asserting that "everything looks like it's going in Harris's direction"...

Everything I see looks like it's Harris's day. It's quite astonishing if she wins... to drop into the election in the middle of summer, organize and work to get to a win in only a couple months? If she wins: 1) she's run a great campaign, 2) it confirms America is just tired and finished with Trump.

R226, the way that Ignore works is you see only the posts by your blocked poster in threads which you have also posted. R216 can possibly be posting in other threads, but ones you haven’t also commented in.

Back when we had posters just writing a series of R#’s in threads, I believed it was a way for stalkers to see and record the posts they were tracking as a way to get more posts from more threads.

There are a few more quirks in the system that I won’t go into but you absolutely do not see all of the posts made by ignored posters on your list.

R227 And also bodes well for her being an effective President

Yes I know that, r228. I post in *many* threads, so...

"Take note, 7% of these unaffiliated are still undecided,” says Jeremy Zogby."

These people are just lying, right? What are they going to do.. flip a coin on the way to vote?

Isn’t the simplest explanation is that they cheated r89? Occam’s razor and all

POTUS isn't the only race, let's remember! Anyone know what the final polls in Montana, for the Senate race, were like over the weekend? How is Tester supposed to be faring - I just read he had closed the gap somewhat.

I already had R216 blocked so it’s not a new poster.

Pelosi is publicly predicting the Dems will take the House. From her lips ....

[quote]POTUS isn't the only race, let's remember!

Jesus Christ. These polls all show Kamala and Trump winning within one point of each other.

R236, wtf is that?

[quote]Pelosi is publicly predicting the Dems will take the House.

What did you expect her to say? Let me know when Mike Johnson says the Dems will take the House.

Chris Christie said today he'd bet $5 on Harris. But for a guy from NJ, he said, that's not a lot of money.

R215, fuck you, you stupid fucking MAGA cunt.

Just kidding. You explained everything, Thanks kindly!

Just tured on MSNBC while cleaning the house. They interviewed Trump at his golf club sans clown makeup and wearing a hat (so no coiffure today). And next to him was the fake Melania, wearing cataract glasses (probably because she doesn't have squint eyes like the whore). They're not even trying anymore. Of course nome of the panelists said anything about it.

Musk never seems to follow through with anything. It’s almost as if he’s a flunky with family money. It’s a type.

You don't think Nancy can count, r239?

r238 that's a sign in LA, near Los Feliz I believe, pointing to Adam Schiff's office.

Has it ever been this close before?

R246, yes. Of the past 12 elections including today's here are the ones we (most of us) absolutely knew going in, who was going to win: 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2008.

Here are the ones we had a feeling about, and we (most of us) were right: 2020

Here are the ones we had a feeling about, and we (most of us) were wrong: 2016

Here are the ones that seemed too close to call on Election Day: 2000, 2004, 2012, and today.

[quote] Has it ever been this close before?

The 1876 electoral count officially was 185 (Hayes) to 184 (Tilden).

Lol so true r247.

Cute clip on Steve Kornacki with Leslie Jones

I read R249 and think what would we do without our eldergays?!

I didn't feel like 2004 was close, as much as I wished it was.

CNN Jamie Gangel: GA Republicans told her MSG was an inflection point and not how you close a campaign.

r232 I would love e Josh Hawley and Marsha Blackburn to lose their senate seats but more knowledgeable posters say sadly this is unlikely.

Dems now up by 948 in Clark County, NV.

Do we know if America's Sweetheart Susan Richardson has voted in PA yet?

^That's ED vote alone (mail in not counted).

R429. Note it was engineered that way by the one-time process used to settle the electoral dispute. By today’s standards, no one has a fucking clue who actually “won” that election. Another legacy of failed Reconstruction.

If Americans actually learned their history, they would see that we’ve been in this mess before. ~1876-1912 was a crazy time electorally speaking.

R249

Not to mention Indie ED votes at nearly 40% in NV and most of them are breaking for Harris. We will win NV handily.

Really, the ONLY troubling numbers so far are Arizona.

[quote]Pelosi is publicly predicting the Dems will take the House. From her lips ....

Not surprised at all about Dems taking the House. People saw the dysfunction these past two years with R’s in charge. Hopefully Big Marge gets removed from all committee assignments again.

I am an emotional wreck today, so take it for what you will.

IF, and at this point it's still a huge IF, Kamala Harris is elected president tonight, she will join the ranks of FDR, John F Kennedy, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama as a once in a generation politician. She started from a huge deficit, had to put together a campaign together out of spit and bailing wire, and fought with everything she had. I am reminded VERY strongly of Ann Richards' famous "Backwards and in High Heels."

I still have three patients to see. Christ, I need to get myself together.

ED = erectile dysfunction

R263 is trying to jinx us with his Pollyanna bullshit.

Love you r263 💙💙💙

Ignore our resident troll who has been shit posting for months. Pelosi is right. Every estimate and model shows Dems narrowly winning the House.

[quote] "Backwards and in High Heels." AND not an ounce of respect or thanks even from the so called liberal media. She was nitpicked and pulled apart and insulted and doubted while doing it backwards in heels.

Hang in there, VOTN. I really think we’ve got this!

Just because.

I’m single again, everyone!

But did you vote, Val at r270?

Much love, VOTN, and anyone else experiencing a lot of stress and anxiety today. I'm actually feeling very positive right now, after days of worrying vibes. I'm beginning to turn my attention to the Senate races, which are actually pretty important as well tonight. We need to hold that chamber, if a President Harris is expected to get anything done easily.

[quote] But did you vote, Val at [R270]?

There’s an election? Sorry, my head is up my ass and I only read “People” when I’m on the cover.

I predict it's going to be mind-boggling how many of your friends and family and other assorted people in your life will never admit that they voted for Trump but instead wrote in somebody or did not vote in the presidential race.

I guarantee you that people are gonna develop mass amnesia when Trump gets trounced.

You aren't fooling anybody, r265.

VOTN are you allowed to prescribe me ativan across state lines? I have good insurance.

R277, I have r265 blocked. Trolly troll who is pretending to fit in with the non trolls.

While we sit and wait for early results to begin coming in - if you have a half hour to kill, this Rick Wilson video podcast that dropped today is very good. He interviews three other seasoned political operatives, on the current state of the Trump campaign and the overall election.

Begin at 29:00, the first half he interviews his son and colleagues about their analytical company (you can skip that):

VOTN is a bisexual, so no wonder he’s a doom ‘n’ gloom flipflopper.

I'll start getting anxious after the polls close. No use in getting worked up now because nothing's gonna happen until tonight.

[quote]VOTN are you allowed to prescribe me ativan across state lines? I have good insurance.

If only COVID waivers were still a thing.

I will forever love the Obamas.

[quote]You don't think Nancy can count, [R239]?

I'm sure she can, but she's no Carnac the Magnificent or Criswell. Did you expect her to say that the Dems were going to lose the House? Of course not.

A weak man who threatens people who criticize him is not fit to be our commander-in-chief.

And he's morbidly obese..they say.

And he has small crowd sizes.

Took Dems a while to use the winning Pelosi method of squatting in his brain and driving him demented. Biden would never.

Mah cooter is itchin y’all!

R227 Also confirms that we do not NEED the endlessly long US election cycle.

Britney Jean, is that a sign of something like Puxatawney Phil?

I had nothing to do with this.

From the NYT live blog: More than 700,000 people in Georgia have voted so far on Tuesday, Brad Raffensperger, the secretary of state, said in a briefing, and that figure was on track to reach 1.1 million by the time the polls close in four hours. “Things are really good,” Raffensperger said. “You should be excited if you live in Georgia.”

Given that Raffensperger was the target of the infamous “Find me 11,780 votes” phone call and its fallout, can we infer that “really good” means good for Harris?

R291 "really good" for democracy, for free and fair elections...

Take us home, Georgia!

R293 = Liza

Schure waschn't me!

Stop paying attention to “turnout.” It means nothing until the polls are closed.

Democrats will overperform tonight, just like they have in every election since Roe was abolished.

^ Meant to type Roevember. Ducking autocorrect!!!

R290, The visual takes on a different interpretation after Trump's microphone assault.

"Stop paying attention to 'turnout'. It means nothing until the polls are closed."

R296, you ought to tell that to MAGA wingnut Charlie Kirk. He is PANICKING!

Yeah, that's definitely not Melania.

The fuck?

[quote] Stop paying attention to “turnout.” It means nothing until the polls are closed.

Then what the fuck should people pay attention to, shithead?

This entire election is about turnout.

Go play in traffic, asswipe.

John King on CNN with the colorful EC map right now, talking "Blue Wall" strategy. We're getting close to the first exit polls.

God, I don't feel like being hungover tomorrow but I feel it coming on.

I'm kind of curious to see how FOX "News" is covering election day.

Has anyone been brave enough to tune in?

Does anybody know why they wait u til Election Day to do exit polling? When half the country voted last month?

Couldn’t they do election polls then?

Believe it or not, for a brief period, Fox would do straight news on Election Day. Very little partisan spin. For a single day and then it was over.

I doubt that is still the case.

Paul Rudd is handing out bottled water to voters in the extremely long line at Temple University. Shown on MSNBC.

R309 he can serve me water straight from his cut cock!

When do the first polls close and where?

Every time I switch to see what Faux News is doing, it's always some guy in the field only interviewing Trumpeters in the wild. Sometimes the reporter is even leading the cheer like it's some football game, like he's a cheerleader not a referee.

R311 7:00 pm: Georgia Indiana* Kentucky* South Carolina Virginia Vermont

7:30 pm: North Carolina Ohio West Virginia

8:00 pm: Alabama* Connecticut Delaware Florida* Illinois Maine Maryland Massachusetts Mississippi Missouri New Hampshire New Jersey Oklahoma Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee* Washington, D.C.

8:30 pm: Arkansas

9:00 pm: Arizona Colorado Iowa Kansas* Louisiana Michigan* Minnesota Nebraska New Mexico New York North Dakota South Dakota Texas* Wisconsin Wyoming

10:00 pm: Montana Nevada Utah

11:00 pm: California Idaho* Washington Oregon

12:00 am: Hawaii

1:00 am: Alaska*

Only an hour and half left to vote in the Eastern time zone of Indiana and Kentucky.

Thank goodness I have a PBS Passport and can stream a Walter Presents program ("Velvet") instead of watching the election coverage this evening.

I don't want to see any TV coverage about lines at voting places, I don't want to see any possible violence, I don't want to see any incidence of poll watchers interfering, I don't want to know anything about how it's going in the battleground states, or anything about the Secretaries of States trying to ensure orderly voting.

NONE of it!

In the immortal words of Dathan, “Pull! Pull for your lives!”

Just brewed a pot of coffee over here in the Europes so I can stay up and get the results with all of you. Here we go!

Awesome Mizez S. Glad to have you here with us! Let's go.

R317 might need something stronger if it goes into WED.

The nauseous part of “nauseously optimistic” is kicking in. I may need tequila to get through this.

I’m really trying to not panic.I want to be positive, but I’m still traumatized from 2016. I’ve got a bottle of wine, and thank God, I took tomorrow off from work.

Edinburgh, Scotland here. Trump can get tae fuck tonight!

Hi Mizez! I just tried and failed to take a nap.

[quote] Scottish stand-up comedian Janey Godley holds a sign in protest stating "Trump is a runt" on the beach outside near Trump Turnberry Luxury Collection Resort

She is special.

BBC just put a video explainer on how exit polls work in their feed.

Lest I repeat my 2016 breakdown, I'm steeling myself for the worst. It'll make any good news all the more sweet.

R321 I’m traumatized too. I’m on pins and needles

No one gives a shit about ant Scots protest or BBC explanations of …anything—they can’t even summarize the make up of the EC properly.

Who the hell is watching that shite?

Haven't exit polls been discredited, R325?

Giuliani's stirring up shit with the press for his own benefit.

R325 that’s nothing a junior hi student isn’t told in 8th grade. So what?

I quit but it's early.

Ask John Kerry about the true value of exit polls. 🙄

“PELOSI: "Hakeem Jeffries will be the speaker of the House. I don't know what the margin will be, but I know that we have the votes to win the House."

Nancy knows her numbers!

Take your meds, R329, if you want to make it through the election night.

Cunt.

R327 no shit.. We have we 51 separate general elections, each of which involves multiple federal, state and local officials, plus initiatives and referenda, all on a single long ballot. Why would anyone compare it to a single vote choice in the UK parliament?

The BBC really is an idiocracy.

How things look from over here.

Nancy Pelosi is one of the effective politicians in American history. Man, woman, doesn't matter.

If she's saying we've got it...

I'm starting to have serious anxiety and flashbacks to 2016.

Raffensperger tweeted out lots of pro Trump/Kamala is dangerous BS but allegedly he ignored 6 calls from Trump this morning so who knows. I'm sure he would not be sorry to see Trump beaten.

Charlie Kirk is freaking out:

"Turnout is mixed and not where we want it to be," Kirk tweeted at 12:39 p.m. on Election Day. "We need more people to vote. We can't let turnout flatline. Text everyone you know. Make more noise. We need more." he tweeted.

It's okay. We're all going to have ups and downs. I somehow have to have therapy in about 30 minutes. I can't concentrate.

VotN, we should all be doing the same!

PA slipping away from the fucker.

Yes, many of us have PTSD from 2016. But remember, Hillary was not really that well liked even among Democrats and she was demozied by Republicans for 30 years before that. Plus lots of people thought giving an outside a chance was worth a shot, which died in a grease fire.

We all know what a disaster Trump was and Kamala is a young fresh face of change this time who has run an almost flawless campaign. The mood and momentum you see at her rallies is nothing like the lackluster crowds Hiltzs had.

Holy shit Chris Wallace is on CNN?? WTF? Wow.

Ooooh R346, Philly has him freaked. Good.

MSNBC:

KATY TUR: We got a little bit of interesting reporting from one of our — from Maura Barrett who’s out there in Wisconsin, and she was talking to an aide — Wisconsin Republican Party official on background — and she said that looking at the state’s early voting demographics by gender, the source expressed some concern for Donald Trump and Eric Hovde, who’s running for Senate there against Tammy Baldwin. There’s a 50-43 split women to men in mail-in voting and early voting votes already cast.

If this lines up with how the split is in same-day in-person voting, this source is really concerned, especially because there was such a big effort by the GOP to bank your vote. To cast your vote before Election Day.

ANDREA MITCHELL: And let me just also point out that this is replicated by what the Democratic Chair, Ben Wikler, has been saying on the record in a text to me today.

CORNELL BELCHER: It’s also what we’ve been seeing in data coming up to this. Look — if this holds, it’s a women’s wave.

R343 Hahahahahahaha.

Wallace left Faux News for the CNNi streaming network that got canceled. I guess they gave him a long break and are re-introducing him tonight?

Never bet against Nancy. If she says it, believe that shit.

[quote] I'm starting to have serious anxiety and flashbacks to 2016.

So, I want you to get up now. I want all of you to get up out of your chairs. I want you to get up right now and go to the window. Open it, and stick your head out, and yell, “I’m as anxious as hell, and I want a pepperoni pizza!”

You’re welcome,

Woman "scorned" working in our favor this time.

Dont under estimate the power of that. Only bitchy queens can be more vengeful and determined to cunt out their opponent.

Philly will whoop his ass.

R350, link!

Frawd!

r356 can only be a good sign.

[quote]Ooooh [R346], Philly has him freaked. Good.

My take away is the more unhinged he gets, the more he knows he's losing.

My chest feels tight and my shoulders are aching, I cannot take his 'frawd' shit again. So, so, so sick of him. I wish we could press a button and shoot him off into space tonight.

[quote]Take note, 7% of these unaffiliated are still undecided,” says Jeremy Zogby.

Excellent news! After the MSG-Nazi rally, late breakers when from 60-40 for Harris to 2 to 1 for Harris. And in one poll, [bold]all[/bold] of the voters on the fence went for Harris.

Fank you Tony Hinchcliff! You fixted my cuntry.

[quote]That Dixie Notch result is giving me huge doubts that Kamala will pull a win.

Because three elderly hillbillies in northern New Hampshire voted for Trump? New Hampshire has always had a large number of Republicans.

R352 I forgot about that. Will be interesting to see if he gets a weekly show or will be in prime time or relegated to special events.

Reading his tweet at R356 and R346 - WHO does he even think he's talking to? He's not the President. He has no power. He's a powerless, sad, old whining cunt loser.

From what I understand Pennsylvania is keeping receipts ready to go for exactly this reason. They're all over it because they expected him to do this. Fuck I'm sick of him. I so fucking sick to death of him and everything about him.

I’m thinking the women/man split will even out more on Election Day but I don’t think that will save the repugs.

Did I mention how fucking sick to death I am of Trump?

Maybe Kamala and Doug are better actors than I give them credit for, but compare these two pictures side by side.

BBC:

[quote] The first wave of exit polls has just been released - and voters have named the state of democracy as the most important issue when deciding who to vote for as president. Around a third of people asked said it was their top concern, out of the five options given.

Has Maga-loco run out of ketchup yet?

He is a loser - a two time loser after tonight - and he'll do nothing but stir up tons of shit over the next few weeks, while we try to celebrate victory and try to put our country back together.

Lancashire, England here pulling a nervous all-nighter. I've put on my state by state multiple bet; Harris to win all swing states other than North Carolina. I was flip flopping with Arizona, bit went Harris. Think I should've chosen the reverse.

[quote]The first wave of exit polls has just been released - and voters have named the state of democracy as the most important issue when deciding who to vote for as president. Around a third of people asked said it was their top concern, out of the five options given.

That's....encouraging, right?

R365, that's another piece of why Harris will win. Very few people feel "so fucking sick of" her. The deep visceral loathing we feel toward Trump, and at least one-third of the electorate feels it, it's intense. It's been eight or nine LONG years.

R372 you live in a really gorgeous part of England

Not sure, VOTN. Abortion was only 14%, but immigration was 11%. Not many clues here, IMO.

R373 I think so. But also it’s shocking.

Yes VOTN, given how undemocratic the Republican candidate clearly is.

The blowback must have been FIERCE!

Dr Phil walks back presidential endorsement one week after speaking at Trump rally

TV personality claimed he offered to give the identical speech at a Harris rally

Inga Parkel New York Tuesday 05 November 2024 14:24 EST

[quote]Dr Phil McGraw has revealed that his appearance at Donald Trump’s controversy-laden New York City rally in late October came as “an act of rebellion” against Kamala Harris. While speaking on a recent episode of Piers Morgan’s Uncensored talk show, the popular TV personality and former psychologist, 74, walked back on his apparent endorsement of Trump. “I’m just not here to endorse Donald Trump. I do not like celebrity endorsements,” McGraw said in a teaser clip posted to X.

[quote]The Dr Phil host went on to tell Morgan that he doesn’t like a lot of what the former president says or does, explaining that his speech at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally was more so “an act of rebellion on my part.” “I requested 25-plus times to speak to Kamala Harris,” he claimed. “I offered to give the identical speech at a Harris rally.”

[quote]The Independent has contacted the Harris campaign for comment. When asked by Morgan if he had decided who he was going to vote for, McGraw responded: “I think I have, but I’ll never tell.”

What were the Hillary/Trump initial exit polls like? I seem to remember them being good for Hillary, then of course things changed once the night progressed.

A lot of Trump supporters have cited threats to democracy as THEIR concern, so I wouldn't necessarily read that much into that finding.

[quote] The first wave of exit polls has just been released - and voters have named the state of democracy as the most important issue when deciding who to vote for as president. Around a third of people asked said it was their top concern, out of the five options given.

We’ve seen all along in the polls that Democrats listed that as their number one. Republicans and Independents went with economy, inflation, immigration.

Dr. Phil is a lying sack of shit. He's been ranting on immigration all year.

The media undercovered two tremendously major events that are driving voters: the overturn of Roe and January 6.

Came here to say that, r381

Trump campaign is shitting its collective pants over PA. My partner is an American abroad, registered to vote in Philadelphia and CNN reported last night that some Trump-affiliated shit group was trying to disqualify votes from abroad to be counted in PA. Of course, they won't succeed but will use courts to try to delay the process of calling PA for Harris as much as possible.

I don't know how long I can handle the stress of waiting. I might take an edible and watch Golden Girls for a couple of hours.

CNN Exit Polls are in - 60% + voters feel America's best days are in the future, 35% feel they're in the past. Bodes well for Harris.

I don't think Kamala and Doug are acting. She got married at 50. They didn't have to raise small kids. They are compatible. They're not your average middle age breeders sick of one another!

R373 it’s utterly meaningless. You’re better than that. Exit poll results on a rolling basis?—most of the country is still voting live, or voted early…where exit polling is spectacularly imprecise.

[quote] Trump campaign is shitting its collective pants over PA

PA is the whole enchilada.

Sounds like a plan, R387. You honestly won't miss much. Tune in around 8pm Eastern.

R375 - In parts Dulchie. I don't live too far from Blackpool though; one of the seediest shitholes in the country. I'm not sure what the US equivalent would be...Jersey shore?

The exit poll was 4,122 people and has a margin of error. It's directional, but not precise.

Wildwood —worst of the worst.

R394 It purports to be a sample of a group that is unknown…there are hours of voting left. Don’t be dim.

Blackpool's like a mix of Coney Island and Atlantic City. It's has some of the worst poverty, drug addiction, smoking rates, and health outcomes in England,

Lancashire voted overwhelmingly for Brexit and Boris.

[quote]CNN Exit Polls are in - 60% + voters feel America's best days are in the future, 35% feel they're in the past. Bodes well for Harris.

Keep in mind that Trumpers think they're doing the lord's work and with him in office the best days are ahead.

I'm not being dim, there's no promises made with "directional".

More from the exit poll:

While the state of democracy and the economy were the top issue across all voters - it's a different picture when looking at Trump and Harris supporters.

Among those who voted for Kamala Harris:

• Almost six in ten people ranked the state of democracy as their number one issue, according to our US news partner CBS • That was followed by abortion, which was picked by about one in five • Just over one in ten chose the economy

Among Donald Trump voters:

• Half said the economy was their number one issue • One in five said immigration was top • Just over one in ten people said they cared most about the state of democracy

CNN Exits: interesting that top issue was democracy 35, then economy 31%, abortion 14%. So combine 1st and 3rd and you're at 49% and those are Harris voter motivators. The economic numbers are shit and I can't spin 'em either way and make myself believe it.

Pheww, some of these exit polls show how stupid his supporters are...

Only 7% care that Donald Trump has good judgement... like wtf

R397 Yes, unfortunately a substantial number of far-right enthusiasts. A few actually have MAGA signs on their houses at the moment!

All of this exit poll data is pooled with all of the US TV networks and BBC, coming from Joe Lenski at Edison research.

Kamala goes home for a few hours.

I have an important message from Alex.

The exit polls are an indictment of modern day media. The public is so uninformed. And that is the responsibility of media.

I hope they read those exit polls and reflect.

r403, we have a famous wackadoodle who wanders the streets of my European city in full MAGA regalia. I get it.

We're starving for info. Nobody's betting the farm on the exit polls. Let us grok in peace.

Kamala closed the gap to within 3 points (iirc) on the "who will handle the economy better" question R401, so that 31% bodes equally well for them both with just a slight edge to Shitler.

And I'm thrilled with this polling.

ummm.

philly

I feel a lot better knowing that Dems may take the House(per Nancy Pelosi). Even if Trump were to win, he can't do much of anything if Dems control the House.

R404..,so? All exit polling info has come from a common source for decades. That’s how the US networks roll. The BBC is an also-ran.

I remember 2004 & the MSNBC anchors still sworn to secrecy about the embargoed exit polling. But it was pretty evident that they thought Kerrey was the winner.

Betting odds are starting to move away from Trump and towards Harris ever-so-slightly on the sports betting site I use.

[quote]I feel a lot better knowing that Dems may take the House(per Nancy Pelosi).

Miss Nancy was QUITE adamant about that, and I admit that I found it comforting. But then again... I recall years ago that she said that the Democrats were not going to lose the House but did.

I don't know... I feel good. I think that the Democrats will again reclaim the House, maintain the Senate, and keep the White House.

Babbling again.

Re: exit poll interviews: This man said he voted for Trump because he will lower taxes on overtime. Evidently, he doesn't know he won't be MAKING overtime when Trump implements Project 2025.

City of St. Louis, where people know the state will go red, has 43% turnout with a couple of hours left to vote. Huge.

[quote]Babbling again.

Babbling still.

DUMP just now on "Truth" Social: "Philadelphia and Detroit! Heavy Law Enforcement is there!!!"

The fucker is going to incite civil unrest.

Katty Kay on BBC, of Morning Joe fame, is saying that the Harris people shifting tone and were more confident "they had this" in the past week or so.

[quote]City of St. Louis, where people know the state will go red, has 43% turnout with a couple of hours left to vote. Huge.

43% is huge?

I assume he got bad news about Michigan too.

r424 and here is the Republican City Commissioner of Philadelphia responding to Trump's BS

Screenshot of poll breakdown by preference. This is NOT an indicator of the result.

R426, in non-battleground states, especially those in which there are no contested races, I think that's an understandable turnout.

T-minus one hour til the first polls close.

The city of St. Louis is poor, mostly Black, and has had negative population growth from 1945-2020, and is counted separately from the county (city and county governments are separate in STL).

Who is leading?

[quote]The fucker is going to incite civil unrest.

Hasn't he already? An elderly woman was kicked in the stomach and a few poll workers have been attacked?

[quote]Katty Kay on BBC, of Morning Joe fame, is saying that the Harris people shifting tone and were more confident "they had this" in the past week or so.

I saw/felt this about 3 weeks ago. Madam Vice President was walking with a very confident strut. Her delivery became much more forceful and her laughing became even more genuine.

If he loses, Trump will be on the horns of a dilemma. Does he stay & fight, or flee the country?

There are no actual results yet, r433.

Isn’t voter intimidation a crime? Pennsylvania ought to bring state charges tomorrow.

I forget sometimes, and I suppose others do as well, that some of the people listing abortion as the most important issue are actually against abortion. I saw the 23% in the Trump column, and I’m like, “What? Oh, yeah.”

R431 I thought the first polls close at 6pm E

They close at 7pm e/t

6 pm Central, R439.

[quote] Who is leading?

Well, for a while the national vote was 3-3.

Close 7pm: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

6pm Eastern in Indiana and Kentucky in the Eastern time zones. 7pm Eastern for the part of the states in the Central time zone.

Most of Indiana and Kentucky have closed.

[quote]They close at 7pm e/t

And THAT's sexy Steve Kornacki's entrance!!!!

I'm SO excited!!!

I'm nervous. I wasn't before. Rollercoastering, I guess.

R434, there does appear to have been a momentum shift in the past week, both psychologically and in the numbers. However, I remember being here on DL 8 years ago on that dark night when people celebrated too early, so I don't want to jinx the results by assuming a Kamala win in advance. I'm superstitious that way. 🤔

I do think that if the election took place a couple of weeks ago, Trump would have been much more favored to win. Tonight, I think I would rather be Kamala than Trump, but we have to wait & see the data first.

AP is starting to show the first votes from Indiana

I want to fellate Jacob Soboroff.

HI PollTroll!

Fucking Piers Morgan is going to be on BBC all night. Fuck.

Poll Troll (R447) I am so so so glad to see you. I worried. nYou're high value, dude.

Kentucky

Trading on Trump Media stock was halted 3 times today due to the massive sell off, down 15% in 15 minutes, that means the people who own his stock think he is losing.

Hi, R451. 👋

Hi, R453. I left you a thank you on the other thread you started a couple of days ago. And thanks for your oral compliments. 😉

I want you to know Poll Troll (R447) that I came back to DL (just a couple of hours ago) solely because of you. I could not allow myself to miss such a possible monumental event without reading your analysis. I'm SO glad that you are here!

I missed it, R456. Genuinely so pleased to see you!

Sorry but it's not looking good for Dems at all. It looks like it may be worse than 2016

Im scared!

Do fuck off, r459.

RFK dint get his name off the ballot in IOWA:

He is polling 3%.... Trump 44% .......Harris 47%

HAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAH

For we get going on here at 7pm....just want to give a warm & hearty thanks to both Poll Troll and FCI for all their hard work, information sharing and voices of sanity here at DL.

*Before

[quote] RFK dint get his name off the ballot in IOWA:

The Iowa results may be the ones I’m most interested in. I want to see how magical Selzer really is.

R459, if you're basing that off Indiana and Kentucky results, those are guaranteed Trump states. All that matters are the swing states.

Someone please give the rundown.

Who was the numbskull wondering if Indiana might flip?

[quote] Who was the numbskull wondering if Indiana might flip?

Was it that SurvivingAngel person?

No 459 is not basing that on anything but his own Trump support. I banned this poster over 6 months ago. They are still here Trumping all over the place.

When I first read that Trump is claiming that cheating is going on in Philadelphia, I immediately thought, "Somebody just heard some bad news."

John Bolton is on UK Sky News saying that the script is already written for Trump, and that the GOP totally fucked up letting him come back. Bolton's an asshole, but he's not holding back.

I’m stressed. i can’t even manage posting in character.

Thanks for the lead, R470. You know what I did> :)

I dunno... overall, CNN's exit polling suggests at least a slight edge for KH, overall. Argh, rollercoastering!!!!!

[quote] I banned this poster over 6 months ago.

I think you mean blocked.

r471 Michigan too

[quote]Sorry but it's not looking good for Dems at all. It looks like it may be worse than 2016

It's a little early to be hitting the vodka, isn't it, Svetlana?

R454 I posted in another thread, but I have been stuck in KY the last few months due to work. I am surprised that I have seen so many Harris signs. Kentucky will obviously still be red, but I don't think it will be a landslide get for Don.

10 polling stations in Georgia extended the hours to 7:45 PM, 45 minutes later than planned, due to the bomb threat delays.

The NY Times Needle is a no-go tonight? Because of a strike or something?

Moe panic?

It’s not looking good

It’s starting.

R481, Nate Cohn posted earlier that he is not sure whether NYT will have the needle tonight because of the Tech Guild strike.

[quote] I do not know whether we will be able to publish the needle. There are good reasons to bet against it, though perhaps there are scenarios where things are running super smoothly; alternately, we hit bugs at the start and there's no chance.

What the fuck is r483 yapping about? If you don’t know how this works then shut the fuck up or you’ll be banned. Last warning.

I noticed the Allen County thing too, but at 43% counted, it’s not clear what precincts they are. Better to wait until all counted, then compare with 2020.

Well that's good probably. That NYT needle has fucked us all many times.

Oh dear.

Harris running 6 points ahead of Biden in Hamilton County Indiana with 2/3 of the vote in.

I just don't know how marginal gains in non-battleground states can be imputable to battleground states. The former have not been exposed to the 24/7 smearing of Kamala Harris in the latter.

Trump campaign officials saying there's been registration fraud in PA, along with blocked access for GOP officials and lawyers in some jurisdictions.

If Ralston is hinting that she's winning Nevada, she's going to be the next President.

Wow, R492. Jon Ralston's reporting has done a 180.

Strong warning from the Philly DA:

r393 I love Blackpool! One of the sexiest winners of the Mr Gay UK contest Daniel Broughton came from there and went on to be a pornstar for a while. Many good childhood memories of Blackpool as we had one relatives who moved near there in Poulton le Fylde. I am praying that Kamala wins the election and will be pulling an all nighter watching the results tonight. I'm rooting for all the Kamala supporters on here 🙂❤️

Crawl back into your vodka bottle, R459.

[quote] If Ralston is hinting that she's winning Nevada, she's going to be the next President.

After weeks of dour reporting, he predicted a (very narrow) Harris win the other day.

The Philly DA is an incompetent boob. Don’t waste your time.

New.

He seems dead.

Thx, R501. Never heard of this source but it's telling. I've been saying where she loses watch by how much. It will tell us something.

Turn out down in deep-blue Arlington County, VA compared to 2020.

Does not bode well for Chesapeake County even though the state is safe.

As a national bellwether hold your breath.

R501.... !! That seems like a welcome sign! To spell it out: in that Indiana county she did 8 points better vs Trump than Biden did in 2020.

R499, yeah Ralston predicted that Harris would only win Nevada by 0.3%.

Today's numbers have the potential to push Harris higher.

Not feeling that Georgia CNN exit poll...

Even though Virginia's safe, as a national early sign there's red flags that it's going to be a long night if not few days.

Arlington turnout down. Watch Chesapeake

10 minutes until GA and FL

7pm ET:

Georgia

Indiana (Polls close in the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 8th districts): Senate, governor

Kentucky (Polls close in the 1st and 2nd districts): Ballot measure

South Carolina: Ballot measure

Vermont: Senate, governor

Virginia: Senate, House

Florida (Polls close in the 3rd through 28th districts): Senate, ballot measure

first battleground state incoming

HOLD ME, DAVID.

Guys I’m heading out, hopefully to celebrate. Created a part 2. Please fill this thread first!

Dana Bash already saying Georgia is not looking good for Kamala based on the exit poll

The Philadelphia Police Department told BBC Verify that they were not aware of what Trump was referring to. Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner also published a response saying: "There is no factual basis whatsoever within law enforcement to support this wild allegation."

The Republican City Commissioner in Philadelphia posted on X saying: "There is absolutely no truth to this allegation. It is yet another example of disinformation. Voting in Philadelphia has been safe and secure."

A neighbor has a trump sign in her yard. She posted a video on the neighborhood Facebook page of a woman mowing it down with a baby-filled stroller.

She said something to the effect of "How dare she damage my personal property!"

I wanted to post, "How dare your cult storm the capitol while trying to overthrow an election and damaging the people's property, while injuring hundreds and killing some." Not to mention he's a lying racist rapist.

I didn't because I didn't want to publicly feud with a neighbor and she's too stupid to bother with anyway.

I am avoiding the news today I'm so nervous. I'm so sad that half the country would vote for that creepy lying scum.

Why are you watching CNN, R513?

Have fun, r512!

AP: Vermont’s Republican governor says he voted for Harris BY DAN MERICA Share Phil Scott, Vermont’s Republican governor, told reporters outside his polling place that he voted for Harris over Trump, his party’s presidential candidate.

Scott said it was “not an easy thing to do being the Republcian sitting governor and voting against your party’s nominee,” according to video from NBC 5. But Scott said he “came to the conclusion that I had to put country over party.”

Scott voted for President Joe Biden in 2020.

New.

lol, r354

A more positive take on Georgia

I'm not able to read the tea leaves, so I'm going to try and meditate for an hour or two.

No matter what happens, we were part of something.

Let's hope that's not just spin, R522.

Here we go.

Why are we paying attention to exit polls from deep-red counties? It's not news that they're going for trump by overwhelming majorities. Is there some significance I'm missing, though?

I feel sick

[quote]r523 = No matter what happens, we were part of something.

Indeed, VotN.

What a shithole Indiana is

Vermont for Harris, Kentucky for Cheeto.

Trump up 8-3. Time to declare victory.

It's whether she under or over performs Biden and to a lesser degree Clinton. If she runs up her numbers in red states, that's a good thing. If he improves in suburbs, not so good.

KY called for Trump, VT for Harris.

Shocker!

Has Dump declared victory yet?

You *are* sick, r528. And you aren't fooling anybody.

R532, I chuckled.

Don't think those fucktards aren't thinking about it.

R527 I think it's just something to grasp at while we wait for the real stuff. You're correct... if a deep-deep red MAGA Kentucky county went 5 pts more for Biden 2020 than for his Black female VP in 2024, that is not exactly surprising.

I'm restless too!

I'm scared because 2020 early exit polls showed closer race. The numbers were closer.

This is giving me 2016 flashbacks

The fact that it's a close race, at all.

The mind boggles.

R521, CBS political reporter Weijia Jiang says that the Harris campaign is seeing high Puerto Rican turnout in Philadelphia.

[quote]As of midday, the 3 wards that contain the highest concentration of Puerto Rican registered voters in the city were already at 79% of total 2020 turnout

It will be interesting to see whether these numbers help make the difference in PA.

John King is talking so fast I’m not quite getting what point he’s trying to make about Florida.

Trump increasing support from Puerto Ricans in Florida.

I just keep comforting myself that if things go badly for us tonight, at least we have a Dem government right now and they can maybe set things up so that we have some protection when It takes office.

I just took an edible.

The stress is TOO MUCH.

Florida will be Trump's California & New York. Lots of wasted votes.

Take the hand-wringing elsewhere.

I have a huge knot in my stomach

R544 A county with a large demographic of PRs looks like Trump is exceeding his 2020 numbers. But we don't know (yet) if PRs are accounting for that.

Florida Latinos are more conservative than in other states. Even the gays (comparatively). Not surprised by that. Don't think it tells us much about pockets in other states such as PA.

Indiana called for Trump.

The Independent flip in GA is extreme, according to CNN.

CNN says early exit polls show Independents breaking for Trump in a big way.

... in what direction, r553?

[quote]Lots of wasted votes.

Chris Hayes just pointed out that the recent large migration of MAGA voters to Florida may hurt the Repubs in other states. It doesn't matter of Trump wins FL by 1 point or 10 or 20.

r555 to Trump

Well, on the AP map, GA just went from light pink to light blue, which means Harris is now leading.

Any numbers, R554?

[quote]CNN says early exit polls show Independents breaking for Trump in a big way.

Sorry, in Georgia, not nationally!

After a fairly long roll of calling out Trump and his ilk on X, my account is now locked.

I’m surprised it took this long for it to happen.

Please only react to linked sources. There are bad actors here.

Douglas County, GA MIGHT show an uptick for Harris over Biden.

MSNBC shows Harris leading Trump in GA right now.

Yes, if the info is not sourced with a link, don't trust it.

R558 do you have a link to that map?

^ Same with Rockdale County, Georgia.

Is it still true that whoever wins PA is going to win the election?

CNN is showing Trump in the lead in GA, Virginia, Florida.

It's still early though

Urban areas usually get their results in last.

Probably, R568, but not definitively.

It's 19 minutes after the hour and Florida has already counted 54% of the votes? Now that's how you do it.

Yes, Dutchie, but if this doesn't work, all you have to do is go to the splash page of Google and click on the logo and it will take you right there.

Douglas, GA (71% in)

2024: Harris +32

2020: Biden +25

2016: Clinton +11

You people quoting random partial returns are nuts. Not helpful.

JH Christ—so many political morons.

Much obliged!

She won’t win FL. VA is likely. GA is possible.

[quote]Please only react to linked sources.

We can't link to things said by CNN and MSNBC commentators.

But I agree, there's no reason to take such posts at face value.

R568 not literally 100% true but the logic holds.

If you’re Trump, and you can’t win PA then you’ve almost certainly lost MI and WI.

If you’re Harris and you’ve lost PA, then you’ve almost certainly lost NC and GA and NV and AZ.

Betting markets still going for a Trump win, and moving in the wrong direction. Now 39% chance of Harris win. Big money is rarely wrong.

I'm concerned.

How do I make X links show up directly in this thread?

It's only 7;30 EST. Stop the hysteria already.

GA just turned back to light pink on the AP map. >: (

R577 no shit. We knew that a month ago.

R581 change x.com to twitter.com

In the GA counties where Harris is winning, her margins thus far are bigger than Biden's were.

Thanks three card Monty Susan Collins at R580.

Things are moving quickly! I’m at a bar getting drunk! Reminder for part 2

Thanks, R585. Will try that.

Just a courtesy reminder, OP set up a Part 2 and this one's about to max out!

Link to the sequel:

The Douglas County numbers are early votes. Kornacki believes, but isn't sure, they will come down with Election Day voters.

Ah OP drunk at a bar, good for you!! i posted when you did. Hugs.

Independents swinging to Trump.

R530 Indiana is disgusting. It still has a very large KKK presence. Does anyone know why it’s so racist?

Ugh R594, if that is true then Georgia just got a lot tougher. Hoping a flood of new Harris voters can offset that - or that it's being exaggerated. Sounds crazy and it did not turn up in all the polling of the past few months.

VA and GA are flip flopping between a Harris and Trump lead every 90 seconds or so! I will stop mentioning it.

Why do people claim that exit polls are useless? Is that true poll troll?

Ignore the exit polls.

Bernie Sanders re-elected!

Georgia was always going to be a question mark for Dems in 2024 given that Kemp beat Abrams by a large margin in 2022 for Governor. Forecasters at the time thought it might be a tougher state to win for Dems than in 2020.

West Virginia, surprise surprise

And scene.

r594 that's what I was mentioning at r553

Also, Warnock not being on the ballot hurts Harris in Georgia.