Predictions- JUST our Predictions- for 11/5- And the Erect-ORALS----

Watching Florida for a surprise. .

R1- I am not buying it!!! Would love it, but no way... I have a fucked up feeling that TX will be closer than FL.

(But based on Obama- maybe you are right!

I do not see her winning either state

Harris takes the Blue wall states -- WI, MI and PA. Black people save the world by mobilizing and giving her GA and NC, too.

R3- I am feeling no GA..

Maybe it will be NO NC, and she takes GA...

My heart of hearts tells me she CRUSHES THIS. Its this weird quiet vibe...

But. my brain says its so close that Trump tortures us to the bitter end

Blue wall plus NC. Maybe Nevada. If Georgia is called for her early in the night it's Madame President time.

My prediction is that she will win PA, WI, MI, NE-2, Georgia, North Carolina and the surprise will be Iowa. She will get very close to him in Ohio (R+2) and Florida (R+3).

The winning coalition will be black people, white women and white men with a degree.

The talking heads will all express total astonishment when she wins white women as a whole and wins white women with a degree by 20 points. As though women are blind and didn't see every MAGA creep call for the repeal of the 19th amendment as their closing message.

This day next week, the NYT will be back in the Ohio diners and Arizona barbershops, imploring us to think of the fee-fees of the poor white men (retired on a 100K pension since they were 56) and the young Latino men (earning more waiting tables that a nurse makes in Europe) They will then call on Harris to pardon Dump and they'll want her to make up and heal the nation. I see one of our trolls is already jumping on that. Won't the mean black lady apologize to him....for the good of the country. Spare me!

R6- Yes to all but GA--or NC- One of them

Either NC or GA goes to VonShitsHisPants

I also stand by IOWA by that latest poll (and its history)

AZ and NV are toast

And OHIO can truly EAT SHIT

I’ll play, OP.

I called Iowa earlier this week and I’m sticking to it.

She gets either AZ or NV but not both.

GA will be close, but I think it’s hers. The blue wall is hers. It will hold.

I do believe she grabs NC, too. Ohio is too far gone, but they may surprise me. Brown is doin well in the Senate race, so he may pull her over.

No Texas and no Floriduh, either. They’re too corrupt right now.

There’s another surprise state, I think, but I can’t quite figure out what it is yet. Feels like south.

I think she wins Nevada. That Jon Rolston guy has been making clickbait tweets about the R lead in the early vote but he doesn't account for R voting D and he ignores Independents. The rurals have gone all in with the early vote. There's not much let to get out of them now. Clark county has so far had low returns. Rosen is running way ahead of Kamala. Hard to see a situation where Rosen wins by 8 and Kamala loses by 3. I think she wins by Biden margins but it won't matter as she'll get the blue wall.

Louisiana used to be solidly Democratic, r9. Maybe again.

I feel GA is the disappointment and goes to Cunt.

I am not feeling AZ or NV- at all

I would SOB if Texas went blue again but I’m not expecting it. Mainly just hoping Colin wins over Fled Cruz!!

R13- I fucking love Colin!!!!! Me too- If I had to choose between Kamala and Colin taking TX, I give it to Colin! What a gem!!

And fuck you ANN!!!!!!!!!- my skunk bitch, sneaky, underhanded, nasty cum rag fake ass republican co worker who needs to go eat SHIT. Horrible person. and this nasty cunt has everybody fooled. True sociopath.

Dem sweep.

OP - You have started a thread and very eloquently shared your vision and rationale. Now . . . PLEASE SIT BACK, SHUT UP, AND STOPPING REPEATING YOURSELF AD INFINITUM. We know what you think; please stop parroting yourself.

R16- Me be drinking. I. will follow your advice!

I love this thread!! I've now blocked at least three more MAGAts who have gone, heretofore, undetected!!

OP - Me be drinking, too! I love this thread, you, and your enthusiasm - thanks for understanding!!

R19- EVERY POLL is opposed to the other- Its so fucked.. Its all contrary info, I have to believe in my heart that humanity wins out. That there is a god or higher power. Every vibe I have says that we will all be happy. But his CUNT will fight to the end.

I am not allowed to repeat myself due to being the concubine of R16.

But I think that we will win this

Jill Stein will sweep just in time!!!!

Well, mostly the floors because bitch doesn’t do windows or dishes.

Nate Silver said on an NPR program today that he predicts around 52% Trump > 47/% Kamala. My heart sank, because it suddenly seemed the truth.

My god, not 4 more years of this freak...

Ok if we’re laying down predictions:

Kamala wins and we know it by next weekend. Possibly even by Wednesday morning. She wins PA MI WI, NC, GA and NV. She comes within 1 pt in AZ.

The shocker — and portent for 2028 — will be that she loses FL by only 2 pts and Texas by only 3.

r23 Coming even close in Texas and Florida is a real moving of the political tectonic plates

How this piece of shit is even in the running …. Just tonite …. Making hand job motions with Mike ….. not enough .. mic I mean and then he ORALLY COPULATES WITH IT….. just no…. It can’t be … yet it br

Screw the polls, it's the real votes that count.

Harris wins PA, WI, MI, GA, AZ, NV and NC. Florida and IA toss ups. Rick Scott loses his seat & Texans might have had enough of Ted Cruz. President Biden said to the Supreme Court during the State of the Union - not to underestimate the power of women. We'll find out. Should be interesting!

OH will be very close and scare Rs shitless. IA might go blue.

You can't tell me deep red states are now close ish and she won't get the blue wall.

53-43, with a lot of jaw dropping totals.

Kamala wins with MI,WI, PA and one of either AZ or NV. NC or GA could be the surprise (and could make the count less tense from the outset) but I'm not feeling it. I think it's possible she'll lose AZ,NV AND IA and win with exactly 270 votes but who knows.

More likely to take GA than NC

Ohio isn’t going to be close. Florida and Texas won’t go for Harris. Just pray to God she wins Pennsylvania. that’s the whole election.

I think the early voting numbers are correct. I think she takes Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina (this despite R being up 1 there) and New Mexico. She will lose Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. She will win with more than the 270 electoral votes needed, but I think it will be closer than many here thinks. I don't think it will be a blowout.

GO TO BED, OP @ R34. We love you, but you need to rest now . . .

R8 - Ohio is always an interesting one, isn’t it?

I’ve traveled there a couple times, and thought it was overall a fairly nice, pleasant state. The worst part of it is… some of the Ohioans. It’s funny because it’s true. Beyond redemption some of them, and they make Kansas and Missouri rural areas look downright moderate by comparison.

R35 I am not the OP. I am not American either. I just think it's fun to guess. It's daytime here, I don't need to go to bed.

I think Harris will have a 2% margin over Trump in the total vote. Harris will win Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump will win Iowa, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Pennsylvania remains unclear.

[quote] Ohio is always an interesting one, isn’t it?

Pennsylvania is the new Ohio for Republicans. Republican presidential candidates won’t win without winning PA.

North Dakota will be surprisingly close to everyone who isn’t a Lutheran.

Pennsyltucky is a rustbelt shithole of brain-drain left-behinds. The Electoral College has to go.

Likely scenario: a blue wave except for President. Trump is straight-jacketed, and grows increasingly angry, profane and senile. 25th Amendment or Impeachment.

A blue wave except for president? What the fuck does this mean?

[quote]A blue wave except for president?

You're referring to the fact that most incumbents win re-election?

Any predictions on the if Marsha Blackburn is likely to lose her Tennesse senate seat?

I do not like R41's scenario at all. This guy reclaiming power inevitably destroys democracy and gives us President Vance. This is nightmare fuel.

Nate Silver's lines are all being written by Peter Thiel. Ignore him.

It's impossible to know what will happen but clearly 50 percent of the country will tell everyone they were right about their predictions.

If Harris wins, the media will wonder why she did so poorly among the rural uneducated and declare that, no matter how big her margin, that she somehow lost.

If Trump wins, the media will declare that he understood America in a way that the democrats never do.

[quote] If Harris wins, the media will wonder why she did so poorly among the rural uneducated and declare that, no matter how big her margin, that she somehow lost.

Trust and believe that cunt Patrick Healy at the NYT has already written that. He's just waiting to publish it, 5 minutes after she wins.

Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, yes. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, probably. Georgia and Arizona, probably not (there are institutional impediments put in by Republicans. But, there will also be a big blockbuster surprise similar to Iowa (which she will win): Florida, Texas, or Ohio. She might approach or even break 400 under this scenario.

r48 My God imagine if she won all 3- Florida, Texas and Ohio!

R48- I predict that TX and FL will be CLOSE AF- But Dictator Trump will take those... I hold out no hope for Ohio. None

R48 your scenario is a DREAM scenario- and I love it!

The US will lose the respect of the entire world apart from dictators if they allow the criminal Trump back into power. You already know what he is capable of. He will be emboldened to carry out even worse abuses of the office.

2024 early vote totals for Black voters in GA have already matched total Black vote totals in GA for the 2020 election.

Wow! R52!

You have a link for that? Amazing turnout!

No, r53. I can't find a link.

All the articles on the interweb say GA early voting Black turnout is "low" but apparently that turned around on the last day of early voting.

I think she take MI,NV,WI, squeaks out a PA/GA and then there will be one shock win. Trump will get AZ but Kelly will win. I think she wins NC by the smallest margin in history. Like 7500 votes.

I also think dems barely hold the senate and win the house by 2 seats.

2026 is a whole other ballgame.

I have hope for Florida. Hear me out.

Going back a couple of months, I read about golf cart parades for Harris in The Villages. The last time we heard about such parades — 2020 — they were vehemently pro-Shitler.

There are 500,000 Haitians in FL. There are 1.1 million Puerto Ricans. There are 3.3 million Blacks, of which 1.7 million are female.

So far in early voting, women are outperforming men 60 to 40. Senior women are going 2 to 1 for Harris. They are rightly pissed off that Shitler took their daughters' and granddaughters' reproductive rights away. FL has a lot of old people.

Moreover, those old people, if they've been paying even minimal attention, are terrified of losing their Social Security, which both DonOld and Elmo said was on the chopping block.

And finally, FL is now suffering an exodus of folks who can't afford home insurance, their condos are being assessed huge (as in up to 100% of the value of the property) to retrofit and repair them as they were never built to any code that could withstand just the normal FL weather, let alone how extreme it has become with climate change, and DeathSentence's policies have driven employers out of state so jobs are drying up. It's not huge numbers — yet — but in an election so close, every vote counts.

I'll be the first to admit that FL going blue would be a miracle, but it was only 12 years ago it went blue for Obama, and the Democrats have carried FL 5 out of the last 17 presidential contests. VonShitsinpants beat Biden by ~370,000 votes in 2020, so it's a heavy lift but not out of the question.

[quote] My God imagine if she won all 3- Florida, Texas and Ohio!

Imagine if she won all 50 states, plus Europe and Asia!! The sky is the limit, apparently.

Florida could be closer on Tuesday night than in 2020 when Biden only lost it to Trump by 3.5 points. Everybody talks about Florida like it's gone irretrievably Deep Deep Red. No. A loss of just 3.5 points is not deep deep red. If Harris had felt that PA and MI and WI were a lock, she'd be fighting for Florida. Limited time and resources is the only reason she didn't -- not because winning it would've been impossible.

R57, you point out some factors that could help. I still think it'll be a loss for Harris, but even more narrow than in 2020. I'm predicting Trump 51% Harris 49%, and everybody talking about what that means for 2028 when the GOP nominee is no longer a Floridian like Trump kind of is.

.....

[quote] everybody talking about what that means for 2028 when the GOP nominee is no longer a Floridian like Trump kind of is.

In 2028, the difference that overwhelmingly trumps everything else, everywhere, is that Trump won’t be running for office for the first time in 12 years.