Ann Selzer SPEAKS!

Omg omg!!

This is sweet to see.

I am PLOTZING!!!

Woman’s got the strength, woman’s got the power!!! 🎶🙏🏼❤️🎶

You guys...IT'S REALLY HAPPENING!

Who? Let’s take the focus back to the blue wall. Latest polls show Trump slightly ahead in PA.

Final Polls and their Results:

2012 Des Moines Register Iowa Poll = Obama +5

*Result = Obama +5.6*

2016 Selzer Poll = Trump +7

*Result = Trump +9.6*

2020 Selzer Poll = Trump +7

*Result = Trump +8.2*

2024 Selzer Poll = Harris +3

*Result = TBD*

R6 Eat a dick and let us celebrate.

This, but get your asses out there and vote!

She missed on 2018 Governor. Assume margin of error and vote.

My panties are MOIST and I think they just evaporated between my triple sized haunches.

And the 3 men I just walked by- died on the spot!

There is hope, all!

Let's DO this!

R6 This Iowa poll (if accurate) means she is sweeping every blue wall state inc PA and losing Ohio by 2. If it's off by 5 and Trump wins Iowa by 2, she is still winning the blue wall comfortably. Women in Iowa are for Harris by 20. You think women in PA and MI and WI are not also? That working class and retired Iowa women love Harris but in the 3 blue wall states which have more suburban women with degrees and way more black women that Trump is really up? The averages you are seeing are messed up by these junk R polls. 58 of them released THIS WEEK alone.

Let's all have 5 minutes here to acknowledge that something is happening, then deep breath and run through the tape. The wind is at our backs. We are potentially 30 hours away from Trump and smug JD getting their asses kicked into Saskatchewan by a black woman.

R13 30 hours?

within the realm of possibility

Let’s not get carried away. It’s going to be close.

Let's not get carried away, no sleep until Wednesday, but this may not be close.

Florida and Ohio are not turning blue. Let’s stop with that right now.

^ Right, they are not happening but she could cut into his margins enough to really kick him when he'd dead. Take the EC, take the blue wall, take the popular vote, squeeze out Iowa or lose it by a whisker, and then lose Ohio by 3 and Florida by 4 and Texas by 4. That would put the nail in the coffin of Trump or JD running in 2028.

This, together with so many encouraging signs in the early voting and the bad-vibes scuttlebutt from within the Trump camp…

I am so stoked. Kamala Harris is about to defeat Donald Trump!

She's only down in Kansas by 5. up in NE-2 by 12, down 2 in Ohio. Those non swing states have not been subject to floods of junky polls so those are likely fairly accurate. Guess his luck has run out with white women who have not been brainwashed by Joe Rogan and crypto bros and who are not really feeling the idea of Epstein's pal and the man who cheated on his wife 37 times making America full of polio and measles again.

R11 Let’s hope those three men are magats that haven’t voted yet.

Ann "New York" Selzer

Yes, this 3-point lead in IA may itself be a fantasy or evaporate by Tuesday, but the cross-tabs—with independent women and the 65+ going heavily for Harris—bodes well for the swing states. Hard to see those findings applying to IA and not to WI and MI. Walz carries some of the credit for that.

Kamala was smart not to talk about her gender but this Seneca Project ad goes all in on gender and it blew up. 3 million views across all platforms in 3 days. It captures what Ann Selzer captured. Older white women are pissed after Dobbs.

Three points is still going to be with in the margin of error and no person has ever been elected by a poll.

It's Selzer vs Emerson.

Both are highly rated.

538 rates Emerson #10 and Selzer #12 "Based on the historical track record and methodological transparency of each polling firm’s polls."

Note that the Selzer poll was conducted 10/28 -10/31 and the Emerson poll 11/1-11/2. If that means anything.

So we've got two highly rated pollsters with wildly different results:

R27 Ann Selzer's polls don't have a 3 point margin of error. Look at her record. You're right that this poll doesn't elect her but it's the most reputable poll in the country. If Ann is horrendously wrong for the first time in her career, let's say 5 points off, Trump wins by 2 which is 7 points down from 2020 and still has Kamala up 15 with women. 6 hours ago Kamala's team would have been ecstatic with a poll showing her only down 2 in Iowa!

No one is ACTUALLY expecting Harris to win Iowa. If the Selzer Poll was only Trump +5 we would still be hard as a rock. The point of Iowa is that it is enormously predictive of the rust belt.

Exactly R30. It’s a welcome indicator for Wisconsin and Michigan.

Excerpt from Political Wire:

…”Now, Selzer is back with another shocker: her latest poll shows Kamala Harris leading Trump in Iowa by three points, 47% to 44%.

This poll is a genuine bombshell. Iowa has been assumed to be safely red, not even a battleground. No one—not even the campaigns—expected it to be even slightly competitive.

It’s just one poll, of course, and even the best in the business produce outliers. Selzer is extraordinary, but she still works within the bounds of statistical variance.

However, if her numbers are even close to accurate, this election could look very different than the nail-biter many predict. If Harris is truly close in Iowa, it suggests she’ll win the three Midwestern “Blue Wall” states as well.

If she wins those, she almost certainly wins the presidency.

A caveat: There isn’t much corroborating evidence yet, though a Fort Hays State University poll in Kansas recently showed Trump leading in that solid red state by only five points and a Miami University poll in Ohio that shows Trump only up by three points. And Harris looks likely to easily win Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district.

Of course, Selzer might also be wrong. She might just be one of the few pollsters willing to publish an outlier in a field where so many pollsters tend to “herd” toward the consensus.

But if she’s right, she’ll be the first to uncover what many have suspected: That the polls have dramatically underestimated Kamala Harris.…”

Vote bitches. Four years of Trump with no guardrails is terrifying

People are forgetting that the old white women who fought for these same rights 50 years ago are pissed and they are fighting for these same rights yet again, but this time for their daughters and granddaughters.

Exactly r34. Perfectly said. Older women are fucking PISSED.

I’ll third r34 and add that all of the GQP talk - especially of that cunt Johnson - running their mouths about dismantling Social Security and Medicare is starting to sink in to some of the old people.

Not the old men so much, but the old women who don’t have anything BUT social security to rely on.

They came for women. Now it’s time to pay. The longer a woman stays mad, the bigger the cunt punt.

And haphazard punctuation terrifies us.

Oh, dear.

[quote] Older women are fucking PISSED.

Educated older women are pissed.

TRANS women are pissed!!

[quote] [R27] Ann Selzer's polls don't have a 3 point margin of error.

No R29 it doesn't, it has a 3.4 % margin of error, plus or minus, it says so right at the bottom of the poll. That mean it could be off by 6.8% "Margin of error: plus or minus 3.4 percentage points."

It's always darkest before the dawn.

WOW.

R40 So? If it's minus 3.4, that just means she sweeps every battleground state. If it's plus 3.4 that means she also takes Iowa, Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Alaska, and maybe even Florida.

There's literally no bad side to this poll. Selzer has been within 2 points of every finding she's ever had outside of one governor's race in 2018.

R43, be excited all you want, I will wait for Madam President elect to be elected by the electoral vote, polls don't impress me.

Iowa farmers hate tariffs and women hate their restrictive abortion laws.

Nationwide the late-voter, independent, female (all age brackets) and even older men (to a smaller extent) are breaking for Harris.

If she is that good in Iowa, it makes it all the more possible the "Blue Wall" is going to go well for her.

OH also voted to protect abortion rights and the state Rs are trying to fuck that up. Don't be totally shocked at a very close OH race, too.

I always thought Iowa was most like Red>Blue surprise.

- Right next to Minnesota

- Harris is winning Nebraska 2.

- Iowa likes to elect firsts - like Obama and Jimmy Carter (huge surprise in 76 for a Southerner)

- Because of the caucus, Iowans are very politically engaged.

If Harris is carrying the suburbs, that's terrible news for Republicans in GA. The suburbs around Atlanta (the donut) are enormous and can significantly influence the state's results. North Carolina is another one.

Fingers crossed - maybe a canary in the coal mine.

BTW

Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024

Emerson partnered with RealClearPolitics to conduct their Iowa poll.

😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣

Vote Kamala to embarrass Trump. Make that margin huuuuge.

I’m a woman. And I live in Michigan. The blue wall will hold! The Iowa result doesn’t surprise me. Men have vastly underestimated how motivated and angry women are since Dobbs. Trump/Vance, imbeciles that they are, have done nothing but stoke that anger—especially since Kamala entered the race.

Two days ago, I saw that Trump was leading Kamala 2:1 in the online betting market. So I put $250 on Kamala. The next day the Iowa poll came out and Trump betting odds of winning are now about even. This will be the easiest money I ever make!

Shelsher Shpeaksh.

Liza, doll, WTF are you doing up at this hour?

Get some sleep, sweetie.

I'm every WOMAN!

And tomorrow some talking head/pundit will say that Trump’s leading. 🙄🙄🙄

Maybe one profiting off a betting site.

I never saw in detail how pretty Kamala Harris is, or what a fantastic glow she has.

She’s older (obviously not too old), but still quite beautiful.

Is anyone else having trouble setting themselves to asbestos eyeballs? I keep getting setting back to midrange before I can read the previous poster.

R56 Blasian don’t craisin.

This is Obama type level of enthusiasm! Don't be fearful to acknowledge that on Roevember 5th we will crush Trumpism once and for all

R57, I have in the past had issues with that, but actually not lately. I’ve always set it far right, and every once in a while, when I notice some threads are struck through, it was back to the middle. Maybe clear out your cookies and website data for DL (you should be able to erase those things for just DL).

To allay your fears of a Mike Johnson decision.

You watch. That mother fucking Johnson WILL refuse to seat the new house members. There’s no law saying they MUST BE seated by X date.

Since there IS no law, he will try it, just to gum up the works and delay.

I hope Joe goes all Dark Brandon on him and sticks a shiv in his pathetic yellow guts.

I’m in a swoon! I live in one of the three solidly democratic counties in the state.

This kid cracked me up. I firmly believe that IOWA is ours.

[quote]Educated older women are pissed.

Almost all women are pissed. The younger and poorer they are, the more they stand to lose when abortion is inaccessible (and they tend to be well aware of it).

Anti-choice politicians are as clueless about womanhood as they are about medicine; they seemingly forgot that we're reminded monthly of the importance of reproductive rights. Even those of us who are lesbian or celibate or use birth control religiously are constantly aware that we could be assaulted and become pregnant or that birth control can fail. This is nature's way of keeping us perpetually irate about Dobbs.

They're also so obsessed with unwanted pregnancies (and punishing the women who have them) that they failed to consider all the wanted pregnancies that go tragically awry and require medical intervention. Most pregnant women are cared for by women nurses, midwives, doulas and obstetricians, and are personally guided through pregnancy and motherhood by female friends and family. The invisible threads that unite us are much longer and stronger than anything selfish "I got mine, screw everyone else" Republican men can fathom.

I started thinking but so many MAGAts are young and poor but then having seen them on the Twitter and such, you remember they're totally unfuckable, so abortion's not something they'll ever have to worry about.

Selzer discussing the poll right now with Tim Miller on the Bulwark....

I'm watching R68's link and they pointed out that Iowa's draconian anti-abortion law went into effect this summer: that would go a long way to explain this result (and it might not be so indicative for neighboring states without a ban). In general I'm puzzled why pundits aren't giving more attention to the effect of Dobbs and the ensuing legislation, which seems to be as big an influence as in 2022 and 2023.

legacy media is too busy wagering the odds of the election, not evaluating the stakes

R69 By that logic we should also expect that Harris has been enormously underestimated in Texas.

it might be

Alia Seltzer can talk?

Not necessarily, R71; different demographics, different electoral practices. If TX produces a Selzer-type poll maybe we'll see.

Because, r69, they ignore women voters and think that women have forgotten about Dobbs.

They’re more interested in visiting diners in east bum fuck and asking old white men why they voted for the orange cunt than talking to women, period.

Dumb fuckers get clicks. Angry women just “upset” their viewers.

Plus, a lot of women won’t talk about it for fear of attacks from family or maggots

A little song, a little dance, a little Seltzer down your pants!

[quote] [R43], be excited all you want, I will wait for Madam President elect to be elected by the electoral vote, polls don't impress me.

As I said polls don't impress me.

Iowa has been called for Trump.

Could she have been more wrong?

She was a lying bitch.

She must be destroyed....

She probably walked around Iowa City and said “Oh my god, they just love Kamala!”

Polls mean absolutely nothing anymore.

Her poll matched the enthusiasm we were seeing at the rallies. It made sense that 60% of older white women were Harris supporter after we saw stadiums full of women turning out. Timing was everything. Every Republican panicked because the momentum was with Harris until about 7pm today. Trump was posting about massive fraud in Philly and Detroit. They were begging men to go vote assuming that women were out in force. I can see why she got those results with her method and I can see why it was believed by everyone.

Dumb bitch should never speak again.

Fuck Ann Selzer and her incompetence.