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Pennsylvanians, get your friends and family out to vote for Kamala!!!!!

Pennsylvania is perhaps the most pivotal swing state up for grabs in this election, just like it was in 2020. But there have been some big changes in the state since last time at the registered voter level.

One reason why Republicans are optimistic about their chances to retake the state is Pennsylvania’s voter registration numbers: While there are still more registered Democrats than registered Republicans, in March 2021, there were 630,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania. In October 2024, this discrepancy was cut in half, now standing at around 300,000.

Several factors cause shifts in voter registration numbers. First, some existing registrations get removed from the rolls when those people die, move, or go too long without voting. Existing registrants also sometimes change their party of registration. Finally, new registrants are constantly being added to the rolls.

To better understand which of these factors is causing the Democratic registration edge to narrow in Pennsylvania, the NBC News Decision Desk merged together individual registrations from its voter database in March 2021 and October 2024 to track how registered voters were moving between parties and status.

The chart below illustrates all of the changes in registrants’ parties over this time period. Overall, it shows that there are about 110,000 fewer registered Democrats in 2024 than in 2021, and about 220,000 more registered Republicans.

Already registered voters changing their party has been the most consequential factor narrowing the Democratic registration edge. Over 160,000 people who were registered Democrats in 2021 are now registered Republicans.

Conversely, only 58,000 Republicans shifted their registration to Democratic during the same time period.

Moreover, another 83,000 people who were registered as Democrats in 2021 have switched to being unaffiliated with a major party. A little more than half of that number of previously registered Republicans — 50,000 — did the same.

Then, registration removals also contributed to narrowing the Democratic registration edge. There were about 430,000 Democrats in 2021 who are no longer registered in 2024, as compared to about 330,000 Republicans.

But new voter registrations have not played a role in the narrowing Democratic Party registration edge. In fact, slightly more people who have registered since 2021 are now registered Democrats than registered Republicans.

How might these changes affect the 2024 election? Looking specifically at voters who cast a ballot in the 2020 election could help answer that question.

Just looking at 2020 voters who have changed their party since then, about 130,000 registrants who were Democrats when they voted in 2020 are now registered Republicans.

Conversely, only 47,000 registrants who were Republicans when they voted in 2020 shifted to being registered Democrats.

More 2020 voters who were independents then have registered as Republicans than as Democrats. Finally, among 2020 voters who have since had their registrations removed, slightly more were Democratic registrants than Republican registrants.

Another big chunk of the narrowing gap between the parties in registration comes from registration removal of people who didn’t vote in 2020. About 240,000 nonvoting registration records of Democrats were removed, as compared to about 160,000 nonvoting registration records of Republicans. Party switching also plays a smaller role — 31,000 former Democrats turned Republican compared to 11,000 former Republicans who turned Democratic among the 2020 nonvoters who have switched since then.

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by Anonymousreply 24October 27, 2024 8:54 PM

People need to quit with that “perhaps the most important state” bullshit. They refuse to accept that It IS the most important state. You win Pennsylvania, you win everything.

You know what would really help Kamala right now? Having that state’s popular Governor on her ticket! Kamala is the one who fumbled by passing on Josh Shapiro, which could’ve netted her a few thousand votes alone and been enough to win the state handily.

Having an attractive, popular Governor of the Blue Wall crown jewel who’s a great retail politician and also from your same party? The Trump campaign was sure she’d select Shapiro, it was such a no-brainer. If he were a Republican, nobody could’ve talked Trump out of picking him. They were so relieved when she selected Tim Walz instead.

If she loses this election, it will go down as a historic political blunder. Worse than anything Hillary did in 2016.

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by Anonymousreply 1October 25, 2024 1:49 PM

PA is going for Trump. They won’t be swayed.

by Anonymousreply 2October 25, 2024 1:56 PM

We have two weeks to get out the vote in Pennssylvania.

Let's do it, Democrats!

by Anonymousreply 3October 25, 2024 1:58 PM

R1, I’m a Pennsylvanian and I have the highest regard for Josh Shapiro, but you’re totally wrong. You know he has some issues (not for me, but for some voters).Tim Walz is an excellent choice, he’s more blue collar than Josh and he balances the ticket very well. Josh is in a position to keep the shenanigans at bay in PA, and he is poised for bigger things.

I hate hyperbole. If Kamala loses it will not be because of her VP pick, so stop with the “epic blunder” talk. It’s ridiculous. And if you think Dump would have picked Shapiro, you haven’t really been paying attention to both Dump and Shapiro.

That said, Pennsylvanians will vote in epic numbers and Kamala will win the state.

by Anonymousreply 4October 25, 2024 2:12 PM

[quote] You know he has some issues (not for me, but for some voters).

It’s okay to state here more clearly that the anti-Israel wing of the party vetoed him.

by Anonymousreply 5October 25, 2024 2:17 PM

I'm writing about twenty postcards a day

by Anonymousreply 6October 25, 2024 2:18 PM

[QUOTE]You know he has some issues

What issues does Josh have, R4?

by Anonymousreply 7October 25, 2024 2:19 PM

[quote] I'm writing about twenty postcards a day

I take all political mail and put it straight into the trash, without even bringing it into my home. I hope everyone else does the same.

by Anonymousreply 8October 25, 2024 2:23 PM

Here's hoping you're right, R4.

by Anonymousreply 9October 25, 2024 2:25 PM

His stance on the pro-Palestinian protesters and the fact that he took very strong action to break up the protests. I happen to actually agree with his actions, but he got a lot of shit for doing that, and it would have been a shitstorm in the general election. Dump would have had no problem running ad after ad about it, no matter how pro-Israeli Dump is.

Shapiro is in line to be our first Jewish president btw. I think very highly of him, he’s got bigger things in store.

by Anonymousreply 10October 25, 2024 2:27 PM

r8, well, fuck you. it's not "POLITCAL" is requests you to vote, and it's hand-written you asshole.

hope you have a shitty day

by Anonymousreply 11October 25, 2024 2:29 PM

[quote]Over 160,000 people who were registered Democrats in 2021 are now registered Republicans.

I think many of these are Democrats who switched affiliation so they could vote in Republican primaries against Dump.

by Anonymousreply 12October 25, 2024 2:34 PM

[quote] I take all political mail and put it straight into the trash, without even bringing it into my home. I hope everyone else does the same.

I didn't realize that the US Postal Services makes mail deliveries to Moscow, Boris.

by Anonymousreply 13October 25, 2024 2:42 PM

I just blocked that turd, very happy about it.

by Anonymousreply 14October 25, 2024 2:44 PM

[quote]well, fuck you. it's not "POLITCAL" is requests you to vote, and it's hand-written you asshole.

Hastily typing in anger can create embarrassing errors. I strongly suggest you take a deep breath and reread before hitting enter.

by Anonymousreply 15October 25, 2024 3:01 PM

Josh Shapiro is a religious crackpot. Too unhinged and has too many skeletons in his closet.

by Anonymousreply 16October 25, 2024 3:07 PM

R10, he will never be president and he’s a wannabe dictator. He should go live in Israel. It’s Israel-first with him.

by Anonymousreply 17October 25, 2024 3:08 PM

Saying that pro-Palestinian protestors = KKK ended his whatever political future he wanted to have. No one will ever forget that.

by Anonymousreply 18October 25, 2024 3:09 PM

fuck off, I proofread the postcards, not shitposts on the DL. go die in a grease fire

by Anonymousreply 19October 25, 2024 3:12 PM

'Good for you, Philly Snoop.

We need more people like you to get out the vote!

by Anonymousreply 20October 25, 2024 8:20 PM

[quote] Fetterman calls Trump's support in Pennsylvania 'astonishing': 'You can see the intensity'

Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. John Fetterman opened up about the state of the presidential race in his key battleground state and called former President Trump’s support there "astonishing" while predicting that Elon Musk’s endorsement is "going to really matter."

"There’s a difference between not understanding, but also acknowledging that it exists," Fetterman told the New York Times in an interview published Saturday morning when asked about enthusiasm for Trump in Pennsylvania. "And anybody who spends time driving around, and you can see the intensity. It’s astonishing."

Fetterman continued, "I was doing an event in Indiana County. Very, very red. And there was a superstore of Trump stuff, and it was a hundred feet long. [There were] dozens of T-shirts and hats and bumper stickers and all kinds of, I mean, it’s like, Where does this all come from? It’s the kind of thing that has taken on its own life. And it’s like something very special exists there. And that doesn’t mean that I admire it. It’s just — it’s real."

Fetterman said he believes Musk, who endorsed Trump and appeared with him at a rally at the site of the first assassination attempt on Trump in Butler, will be appealing to voters in Pennsylvania.

"And now [Elon] Musk is joining him," Fetterman said. "I mean, to a lot of people, that’s Tony Stark. That’s the world’s richest guy. And he’s obviously, and undeniably, a brilliant guy, and he’s saying, Hey, that’s my guy for president. That’s going to really matter."

Fetterman said he was "alarmed" when Musk began showing up on the campaign trail for Trump and said he's a "bigger star than Trump" in "some sense."

"Endorsements, they’re really not meaningful often, but this one is, I think," Fetterman said. "That has me concerned."

Fetterman told the New York Times that he does not believe the 2024 election will come down to "a certain policy" but will instead come down to the "stark choice" between Harris and Trump.

"It’s visceral," Fetterman said. "And that’s why the people that are left that haven’t made up their decision are going, you know, what do I want for the next four years? And I do believe enough people will choose Harris. But it’s going to be much, much closer than anyone would want."

by Anonymousreply 21October 27, 2024 8:05 PM

Nikki Haley got 17% of the Republican vote in the 2024 Pennsylvania primary -- two months AFTER she'd suspended her campaign. If just 1/4 of that 17% votes for Harris she wins.

by Anonymousreply 22October 27, 2024 8:28 PM

[quote] Nikki Haley got 17% of the Republican vote in the 2024 Pennsylvania primary -- two months AFTER she'd suspended her campaign. If just 1/4 of that 17% votes for Harris she wins.

You don’t have to wonder, the Franklin and Marshall poll already shows us how Republicans are voting. 93% of Republicans in Pennsylvania are voting for Trump, while 91% of Democrats are voting for Harris.

It’s not surprising that >90% of each party’s voters are sticking with the party.

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by Anonymousreply 23October 27, 2024 8:42 PM

R23, a poll is speculation. Trump actually lost 17% of the Republican vote to Nikki Haley at the ballot box. I don't need a pollster's commentary on "likely" voters. It is down to actual voters. She just needs a fraction of the never-Trump vote to win the Commonwealth.

by Anonymousreply 24October 27, 2024 8:54 PM
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