Carville Predicts a Harris Win

She is 100% winning this. And my god, just look at that photo of the people at her rallies and compare it to what you see at Trump rallies. Two Americas, indeed.

I am optimistic as well. Still, I don't think Trump's defeat will be an adequate salve for my psyche. I cannot wrap my head around how such a vile, immoral, traitorous, disgusting, stupid personage could have a solid 44% of Americans in a stranglehold for 10 years. I am scared I will go to my grave with resentment and bitterness toward fellow Americans for inflicting him on the world.

I agree, R2. The word “abusive” popped into my head when I read about his latest petulant, grievance-filled, insult-laden rally. This man is 100% an abuser to everyone in his orbit except the strongmen he idolizes, and that orbit includes the American people.

The rational outcome is she wins. The likely outcome is she wins (I think, and I almost believe with certainty.) I think he's right America has kicked him and the Republicans to the curb before. I do think there's a secret (and not so secret) rebellion brewing among women. The only thing that made me think maybe he's just sayin' it is because he's James Carville, so he thinks he can generate belief she will win in saying so, and the emphasis on calling Trump a loser. That felt like a personal choice to me. Maybe it was just him having some fun on top of delivering a message he believed. I think he and Begala remain the two best minds in political consulting today. They both get the real world. I wish they were more involved in Harris' campaign and hope, under the radar in the last ten days, they will be. They get the real world. All the testing and data and the focus groups have value, but gut and experience still have a place.

Think how many men on this website use vicious, ugly slurs to refer to women and then multiply that many, many times and ask yourself who those men vote for and why.

I have donated to the vice president’s campaign and I’m writing postcards for her but I simply don’t trust my fellow Americans. I see the signs on their lawns. I see the stickers on their pickups. I remember the Clinton campaign.

I’m sick at heart when I think that anyone could ever seriously consider voting for Donald Trump. That Elon Musk could pour millions into supporting him. But it’s happening. The vice president is a woman, a black woman, and I read posts here that say because men in leadership positions in various other warring countries “don’t respect women,” people in this country are not well advised to vote for her as president, that it’s “not the right time” to have a woman at the helm.

What on earth does Donald Trump respect?! When IS the “right time?” Are we to wait until world peace suddenly breaks out? The man is a senile, bigoted, convicted felon! Is THAT what these times call for?

No. But he’s white and he’s a man and that is all they really care about.

My Gurl wins by 84 electoral & 10-14 million popular votes mon !

Agree with every said in R5. It is disheartening but I'm expecting her to win with 276. I'll be shocked if it's less or more. I'll take it but like R2 'I will go to my grave with resentment and bitterness toward fellow Americans' and particularly my fellow white Americans.

…and the bike is in the basement of The Alamo.

I think a post I saw on Threads said it best:

I am nauseously optimistic.

I have a feeling that the race is actually closer to 2012 than 2016 or 2020. I'll come back in 14 days to gloat or eat humble pie!

If anyone watched the Carville doc a few weeks ago, he has access to internal polling and a direct line to the campaign, the DNC, the donors etc He's not infallible but if the internal numbers looked bad he would not publish this. As someone said on another thread - be nauseously optimistic.

In the days after the Obama 2008 election he also predicted the Republican Party would soon become extinct.

I can't imagine America wants 4 more years of the chaos Trump brought to the White House.

Heck, but many Americans are utterly stupid

And he was right. The R party as it existed in 2008 is completely gone. Some may have thought it would move left and moderate but it moved right and crazy.

Every day, I make myself choose to be hopeful. This helps.

They said Hillary was going to win too, let's hope this pans out, never underestimate the ignorance or fickleness of the American voter. It doesn't take much to sway the average uninformed person.

I cannot resist here and media and CNN but I do grasp it's making me anxiously crazy. I cannot believe the threat is actually real, even though I know it is real. I worry too many people are in denial but there's no way of knowing.

I give her credit for everything. If there was a better candidate, I can't name them. I don't see any major mistakes in the campaign strategy that I want to blame them for if there is a loss. I think they could have had a stronger message on the border and the economy but I don't think either sunk them if they lose, because I don't think they'd lose by much.

But I don't think they'll lose. She'll win, in the end. Unless women emerge unexpectedly and early as tidal wave flipping unexpected east side of the country states, it'll be the worst roller coaster ride of our lives, but I believe she will prevail. Florida will be interesting. I assume Agent Orange wins Florida, but the vote count will tell a lot, I think. If women and that sex club for old people go Democrat, that's a big tell.

[quote]They said Hillary was going to win too, let's hope this pans out, never underestimate the ignorance or fickleness of the American voter. It doesn't take much to sway the average uninformed person.

But Clinton won the popular vote, which matters only to the extent it shows the campaign then made strategic mistakes in building up the EC outcome and the swing states. That isn't happening in the Harris campaign.

[quote]He's not infallible but if the internal numbers looked bad he would not publish this.

Good catch. He's got a reputation to protect (which then earns his income.) He wouldn't predict rashly.

[quote]And my god, just look at that photo of the people at her rallies and compare it to what you see at Trump rallies. Two Americas, indeed.

That is so true. People at Harris rallies look like regular, normal people who are part of mainstream society. People at Trump rallies look like the dregs of society and just total trash.

[quote] I cannot wrap my head around how such a vile, immoral, traitorous, disgusting, stupid personage could have a solid 44% of Americans in a stranglehold for 10 years. I am scared I will go to my grave with resentment and bitterness toward fellow Americans for inflicting him on the world.

I also struggle with resentment and bitterness towards Trump supporters and the idiots who in 2016 voted third party. The J6 events and the people who continue to support Trump have increased my bitterness. It sucks because I don't want to be bitter and resentful.

Back in August, I was at a movie theater parking lot in my car waiting to meet up with a friend. It was a cool day and I had my window down. I was parked near a sidewalk that had a bench off to the side. A young woman and a young man in their early 20s were sitting there. A guy who looked to be in his 70s with a Trump cap was walking around and he said hello to them. They didn't say anything and gave him dirty look/stare down. The old guy was pissy that they didn't respond to them and told them that they weren't respecting their elders. I cracked up laughing in my car. My friend showed up, we went in got our tickets and refreshments. When we were in the screening room waiting for the movie to start, I was telling her about the young people and the old guy with the Trump cap. My friend is nurse and she works at a chemotherapy clinic. She said that after the 2016 election, there were Trump supporter patients (usually older people) with their caps and t-shirts and sweatshirts who would try and talk with some patients and those patients ignored them. My friend said that the Trumpster patients were polite with her, but she said that if she ever ran into them anywhere else she would hide to keep them from seeing her. She said that she didn't want to have to engage with Trumpster patients when she was off the clock.

If things follow the last two Presidential elections, Trump will win.

There's the Trump voter undercount thingy. Will it happen this time around as well?

Kamala just doesn't not have enough of a lead in the polls to make up for it.

"But the possibility of another polling miss hangs in the air. If there’s a repeat of 2020 (and 2016) and the full extent of Trump’s support is again being missed, then he’s headed for a decisive victory."