Which will surprise you more: Trump being re-elected or Kamala winning?

Obviously Trump winning, seeing how she's leading him in the polls.

The only ones who'll be surprised by a Kamala win in are bitcoin bros gambling on Polymarket. And of course deplorables hopelessly caught in their Fox News information bubble where their orange God-Emperor can do no wrong.

I think if she wins, it will take a moment for it to sink in that our first woman president is also our second POC president.

Which is kind of remarkable.

I'll be surprised if Trump wins considering he's so completely incompetent and it is plain to see. But I also won't be surprised because at this point I think it's the likely outcome.

I’d be surprised if Trump wins. He lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020, and can’t form a coalition to save his life. Who the hell does he win over? He just hopes to cling to who he has.

Neither outcome will surprise me.

I WILL be surprised if the Trumpers and rest of the right-winger trash don’t scream “eLEcTion FraUD!!” If they lose. I’d like to flush em all down the toilet like the irredeemable shit they are.

Let some of these officials scream fraud and hopefully watch new laws take ahold to strip these individuals of their duties when they can’t reconcile that the masses don’t vote the way they do and you can’t go around that.

[quote] Obviously Trump winning, seeing how she's leading him in the polls.

Uh, she’s not. They’re either tied or he’s winning by a hair.

Kamala winning

Kamala winning.

The surprise will be either conceding without legal action

Russia and North Korea are at war with Ukraine

Israel is at war with Iran and Iranian proxies

Turkey's President is in Russia at Putin's anti-West summit.

This is not a woman candidate's time. Voters will not want Harris in the room with Putin, Kim, Xi, Orban, Ertegun. Those men do not respect women. Voters will want Trump in that room, to prevent full-scale international war or to lead the US in that war.

R11, Scary but probably true.

Trump winning.

It’s nearly tied. How can either one’s winning be a surprise?

r11, you're insane. NO ONE in their right mind wants a drooling old liar in the room with any of those dictators. you're fucked up!

The question is whether most people are in their right mind.

Something very real is wrong with American brains to have caused this. I'm sure there is a chemical additive behind Trumpism.

Some poison that has made it into the food chain

Kamala winning. To win the EC she should be further ahead. My only hope is that it's just 4 years of Trump and that the midterms in 2026 are a blue wave.

Would it kill democrats to run a young white man?

I’ve been marinating in the dual possible realities for a few weeks now. Just want to fast-forward to the outcome.

r11, nyet.

If Donald wins, Benjamin Franklin will have been proven right.

Nonsense R11. Trump is a child easily fooled and challenged.

So apparently are you. "Not the tmie for a woman" nonstarter. Not the time for a coward and liar with dementia.

Transgender is not a real issue because it's not part of the president's purview.

I didn’t like the Harris initially but I don’t see anyone on the Democratic side who could do better. Too bad Cuomo self destructed and is an asshole. He would have been a great choice.

..the Harris pick

r25, Harris was a ballsy pick for VP by Biden considering her performance at the Dem Primary Debates.

He picked her based on qualifications and never got pissy over her debating. She is a great debater.

Trump and his bags of borrowed cash, entered the Presidency as an ENTR LEVEL JOB with only his fake Mark Burnett, Apprentice actor personality, six bankruptcies and numerous civil suits for public fraud. FRAUD. He calls his frauds the weaponizations of government.

He needs to spend the rest of his life in jail and all of 2025 in court.

The thing that really disappoints me is Michigan and Georgia leaning Trump. I lived in those places and they were full of ignorant antigay boobs. But there always seemed like a generational divide between old rednecks and younger people who did not have that attitude. And now I see those same then younger people acting like rabid Trump fangurls now. I had no idea what horrible subhuman scum they would become.

Trump raised the national debt $8 trillion but republicans don't c are about that anymore.

Trump promised tax hikes for poor people and middle class but Republicans don't care about that anymore.

Trump has promised war with Iran, all of Islam, and china, but they don't care about that anymore.

Trump wants to dictate what you can say think and believe and impose some crackpot fringe religion on everyone but you don't care about that anymore.

Trump wants to d eport millions of people where and who will take them but republicans can't care about that anymore.

Trump wants to send the military into the cities to shoot citizens, which led to a gruesome toll when George Romney did that in Michigan with the national guard, but republicans don't c are about that anymore.

Republicans are fakes and phonies. They don't believe anything they pretend to believe.

They want to work you like a slave, use you up, and then kill you when you are no longer useful to them. That's is the long and short of it.

[quote]Trump wants to d eport millions of people where and who will take them but republicans can't care about that anymore.

Imagine being destined for a FEMA gassing and cremation.

Better than Hitler!

[quote] The question is whether most people are in their right mind.

Given that millions of people have continued supporting Trump after J6 I would say no. They aren't in their right minds and those dumb mother fuckers don't give a shit about Brian Sicknick's family or the law enforcement officers who were injured that day and have PTSD and other health related issues.

Whichever one wins, I won’t be surprised. We got stuck with two bad choices.

Harris winning would be a very pleasant surprise. She won't. In two words: She's Black.

I don't think a white woman can even beat Trump. Whenever there were articles saying that Gretchen Whitmer should have run for president against Trump, I always rolled my eyes. I like Whitmer, but she would have never been able to beat Trump. Misogyny is a major thing in this country. It's pretty common on Michigan related social media pages for MAGAts to constantly post about how Whitmer was supposedly a slut in high school and how her nickname was Stretching Gretchen. In Whitmer's book True Gretch, she does mention Stretching Gretchen being one of her nicknames. But, she doesn't give context to it. In the book, she talks about how she was a rebellious teen who drank, partied, and didn't always have the best grades. She also talked about not having a great relationship with her mother during that time. My take is Whitmer was probably a rebellious immature teen who slept around. But, she wasn't the only teen back then doing those things. The Facebook and other social media posts of Michigan MAGAts calling her Stretching Gretchen and saying she was a slut in high school crack me up. There was one post I saw from a woman who said that Whitmer slept with the school's entire football team--it was probably exaggerated bullshit. The slut shaming of Whitmer is tied to misogyny and the dumb fuck slut shamers don't get that it takes two to tango and if they are going to shame Whitmer--then they should also be shaming any guy in their high school who supposedly slept with her. But, they won't of course, it's all on "Stretching Gretchen" Whitmer in their eyes.

[quote] The slut shaming of Whitmer is tied to misogyny and the dumb fuck slut shamers don't get that it takes two to tango and if they are going to shame Whitmer--then they should also be shaming any guy in their high school who supposedly slept with her.

Those guys should be very embarrassed.

I can’t see how Trump wins this - which is amazing because he’s been given every advantage imaginable from the corporate media, the judiciary, interested billionaire oligarchs and his cult.

But it under reported how much chaos his campaign is in behind the scenes, how divided it is. Most of these people are hanging in there for pay checks they’ll never see, their ground game is a shambles, there’s no clear purpose to anything they’re doing. You just can’t win an election this way. And where is JD Vance, two weeks before Election Day? Completely hidden, gone fishing, while Elon Musk pushes himself to the fore. What a fucking shit show.

Of course, the corporate media never wants to appear in any way biased against “Republicans” - lord knows, they’ve had that pounded into their brains for over 4 decades now - so they can’t report on Harris in anything approaching glowing terms, given her obvious success.

The trolls on social media keep their chins up but they’re mostly just foreign bots barely maintaining the fiction.

The “GOP” knows they’ve lost and have little room to manoeuvre in the courts post-Election Day so those efforts will fizzle out pretty quickly. The Dems are taking the House. The only question is: has Trump damaged the down ballot enough to lose the Senate? That’s why Obama and Walz were in WI yesterday, why Harris is in TX this week. I will wouidn’t be surprised if they all converge on MT & FL as well - they’re trying to keep the Senate.

Is any of this a surprise? Not really. Not to reasonable people. Our country is nearly 250 years old - very young by most standards. But it’s going to take more than the Donald Trump Clown Show to topple our democracy. With the 34 convictions, pending cases including a failed coup, liability for rape and sheer idiocy - plus Dobbs - it’s not really surprising. The majority of Americans know we’re better than this. Our country is worth more than throwing it away to this orange grifter.

The corporate media has done EVERYTHING they could to magnify the support, post-J6. But the American people will have the final say on Election Night and it will be a NO for Trump and the GOP. And that’s when the “Republicans”/“GOP”/“MAGA” or whatever we call them party will really implode in a mad scramble of power plays and recriminations for what they’ve done to our country in the last 10 years. They might as well become the Mutherfuckers Party for all they’re going to be worth.

R11, you’re killing me.

I will be in shock if Trump wins.

Okay R34, I don’t disagree with you about misogyny but you’ve gone a bit off-topic with Whitmer. Trump isn’t winning MI anyway.

And while the misogyny in the U.S. is true, without question, the difference between 2016 and 2024 is the Dobbs decision. Media underplays it but it’s probably the biggest deciding factor in the voting booth.

R11, everyone knows on Day One Trump would hand over Ukraine to Putin. He's not a negotiator nor is he loyal to is own country. There are heavy pops of Ukrainian and Polish people in this country and they can easily sway the vote in Kamala's favor.

Early voting has Kamala up 2 to 1 over Trump but "polls" say his supporters will come out on election day.

On completely different note he's been cancelling appearances let and right (no pun intended.) He's not up for the job and would most likely die in office. Those who don't want a President Vance might want to think long and hard before they hit the button for Trump.

And, again, where is JD Vance?

[quote] And, again, where is JD Vance?

I’ve seen a clip showing he was on Theo Von’s podcast recently. I assume that’s big with the GOP’s target young male audience.

Also, it looks like he has been campaigning in Arizona.

I’ll be happily surprised if kamala wins but I believe their are more and more greedy/haters in our beloved country than we thought resulting in a Trump win…

Harris will win but I'm always surprised when the American electorate behaves intelligently.

[quote] Transgender is not a real issue because it's not part of the president's purview.

Yes, it is. The Biden administration overhauled terminology to include shit as chest feeding and birthing person in government literature. The president also has power over schools and their guidelines.

Nate Silver is now saying Trump will win.

Amazing that the fallout over Roe will lead to a Trump victory. Women either don’t care or don’t have enough power.

R47, I read an article earlier today where he says "his gut" tells him Trump will win. How infuriating for a supposed numbers person to make public their personal thoughts. His entire career is based on his ability to run the numbers yet now he feels he can go off-book and start telling us about his "feels?"

R48, early numbers show women are easily outpacing men in early voting. Their number one issue is abortion. Historically, women vote more than men so don't count out the female vote just yet.

I've checked out at this point. Election fatigue caused by the endless lies coming from the right. It's not just tRump.

I am a registered voter who votes, I have a Harris sign on my lawn and I've donated to the campaign.

My tipping point was after the Harris/tRump debate. Anybody supporting tRump after that bloodbath cannot be reasoned with.

I'm voting early tomorrow and am encouraging everybody that will listen to do the same.

To quote my favorite Disney film: "Oh sword of truth fly swift and sure, that evil dies and good endures.".

I having been asking people about snag their gut instinct is. Everyone says Kamala will win. But I am a pessimist and I can see those swing states suddenly turning red and we will all be saying how could we have been so stupid as to think that a black woman could win.

I am scared. I don’t have a survival strategy if Trump wins. I can’t face the idea of four more years of daily evil.

R52, where do you live? If it’s WeHo then of course they’re going to say that.

To dismiss the Trump voter as a stupid culty ignoramus who will do whatever "dear leader" tells them is an elitist conceit. Had an educated intelligent aquintance (holds two masters degrees) tell me "He's a dirtbag but he's our dirtbag". You are who you vote for.

[quote] Which will surprise you more

R54, stop copying and pasting baloney.

R48 There are women who care. But, there are still too many women who are female misogynists and are anti-choice due to the influence of conservative Christian(both Protestant and Catholic) religious communities.

As a woman I'm now thankful that I grew up in a household in which my Catholic parents were moderates who had the belief that the government shouldn't tell women what to do with their bodies and they believed in the separation of church and state. When I have thought back to my childhood and teen years attending a Catholic parish, the priests that served there never talked much about abortion. There were parishioners who were very much opposed to reproductive choice/freedom. There was a couple who tried to get my parents to join Democrats for Life of America. Democrats for Life and politicians affiliated with that organization did play a huge part in abortion bans. People need to read up on Mississippi legislator Katrina Jackson and what she did there.

[quote] Amazing that the fallout over Roe will lead to a Trump victory. Women either don’t care or don’t have enough power.

A lot of women care, but only some of them are single issue voters on that issue.

R54, people accuse those who don't care for Trump as having TDS. No, people have TES Trump EXHAUSTION Syndrome. People are tired of his incessant whining. His enemies list. His holiday greetings which are nothing but bitch fests and threats against his perceived enemies. The constant staff turnover. He has the nom because he strong-armed the opposition and one by one they dropped out of the race and fell in line.

I honestly believe those who will vote against him will do so not so much on policy but on sheer exhaustion and a refusal to go through another four years with this cynical black cloud hanging over our nation. Moral fiber and character count in a POTUS and I believe we're more than ready to turn the page on Trump's America.

R11 Anyone who believes that Donald Trump would the alpha is any of those rooms is either a raging misogynist or has the IQ of a flea. Every time the man meets someone, he changes his opinion. 2 minutes speaking to that great looking senator in AL and he's 'the father of IVF'. One meeting with a vaping lobbyist and he's posting ads for vaping. One meeting with Putin and he's pro Russia. A few phone calls and Zelensky started the war. One meeting with Kim and he seriously suggesting taking the guy to a Yankees game. He is a total pushover. I would send my 12 year old nephew into those rooms before trump. And his top generals would agree.

R11 is a moron and a sexist. Trump will pull the US out of NATO and give Putin anything he wants. He willalso gladly watch Netanyahu bomb Iran and China invade Taiwan.

He already refused to do the 60 Minutes interview or any interview other than incel bro podcasts, Fox and Newsmax. He also did one with a Saudi Arabian outlet.

Trump is not America first. He is Trump first and Trump only.

You R11 are part of the gross sexism that is stinking up this election.

I hate Trump, R61. I'm calling it as I see it. People vote for strong male figureheads at times of upheaval. Harris was the wrong pick.

I'll be surprised if Trump wins. Then I'll go into "fight or flight" mode.

I was so sure Trump would lose that when Biden stepped down, I stopped collecting info on which country I should move to if Trump wins. I didn't even bother to start gathering the documents I would need to leave.

So I hope to fuck I'm right. If not, I'll have some hustlin' to do.

Read your reply at R62 - you are a sexist.

If you think Trump is a *strong male figurehead* you are not just a sexist but also clearly a fool.

[quote] strong male figureheads

But he is not, which is why he's not running away with this. He's a fat orange bitch with a feminine affinity for gossip, pettiness and makeup and a toxic male affinity for vengeance. Oh and the IQ and temperament of a toddler.

R47, Nate Silver is on Peter Thiel’s payroll.

It is truly amazing how much Americans do not know or understand about how their democracy has already been compromised, bought and paid for by the right-wing. No criticism of R47, just a statement of fact.

People should listen to the podcast, The Master Plan, and/or read/listen to Kurt Anderson’s book, Evil Geniuses. It all goes back to the infamous Powell memo in the early 1970s, a decades long plan to do away with campaign finance laws, First Amendment rights, etc. Do you really think in any other democratic country it would be all right for one person to contribute $75M to a political campaign? For all of these 401(c4) “super” PACs to claim tax-free status? For corporations to have 1st amendment rights that drown out the rights of the individual? The dark money in American politics is at an absolute zenith, it’s unbelievable. No other country on Earth operates this way and yet Americans have been led to believe this is an acceptable corruption of a so-called democratic system.

The corporate media is bought and paid for. The right floods the zone with fake “low quality” polls so they can manipulate the averages. The right collides with foreign entities. No wonder no one has a clue what reality is - that’s the entire point.

Neither would surprise me at this point.

I'd be surprised if Kamala wins. She can't give a straight answer, she fucked up on 60 Minutes and Fox, she let all the migrants in, Obama didn't help by chastising black men, and Tim Walz and his wife aren't helping either. The only thing she stands strong on is abortion. That's not going to be enough.

Don't come for me unless I send for you.

Thank you R66 - exactly.

I would also highly recommend that people read 'Attack From Within' by Barbara McQuade. The disinformation and disinformation distributed by far right actors at home and abroad is destroying democracy. Look at Brexit, look at the turn to the far right in many European countries, look at the far right gains in Canada - all due in large part to a systemic and constant disinformation campaign.

Not to mention the millions of young men glued to far right, conspiracy theorist podcasts and channels like the Peter Thiel owned Rumble.

These are incredibly perilous times.

[Quote]People should listen to the podcast, The Master Plan

I've been looking for such a podcast thanks R66

[quote] Nate Silver is on Peter Thiel’s payroll.

He’s not.

I recommend The Wizard of the Kremlin, a fictionalised account of the career of Putin's former Deputy Prime Minister and communications strategist Vladislav Surkov. Surkov created the current system of "managed democracy" in Russia (semblance of choice, voting allowed, outcome predetermined) , planned the destabilisation of Ukraine to prepare for Putin's invasion. His use of disinformation and "heavily scripted political reality" was the template for Bannon, Flynn, Stone and Trump.

[Quote]Grey cardinal, éminence grise, a modern Rasputin, a Russian Richelieu — Surkov exhausts the clichés as the consummate Kremlin backroom operator. Never elected, he was Putin’s chief ideologist and by most accounts his closest political confidant for more than a dozen years.We order champagne (Surkov says he only drinks sparkling) and as the first of five preordained courses arrives — a mess of barely discernible shredded vegetables drowning in truffle oil — I ask the obvious question: how does one dismantle democracy while enhancing its facade?“In the Soviet Union, there was a lot of homogeneity. And that homogeneity ruined the Soviet Union, because people need diversity. But in the 1990s, we had diversity. And that diversity was ruining Russia even faster,” he begins.“For a while I was a student at the institute of culture. I studied the Commedia dell’arte. There is a limited cast: Pantalone, the merchant. There is a judge, Tartaglia. There is Harlequin, a stupid servant. Brighella, a smart servant. Colombina, the young servant, and so on. There is a limited group of players, but they represent all strata of society.”I am initially bemused by this detour into Italian theatrical nomenclature but it soon becomes clear.“People need to see themselves on stage,” he continues. “In this masked comedy, there is a director, there is a plot. And this is when I understood what needed to be done.“We had to give diversity to people. But that diversity had to be under control. And then everyone would be satisfied. And at the same time, the unity of the society would be preserved . . . It works, this model works. It is a good compromise between chaos and order.” Later in our conversation, which took place three weeks before Wednesday’s summit in Geneva, Surkov will spell out his central doctrine with even less nuance: “An overdose of freedom is lethal to a state,” he says. “Anything that is medicine can be poison. It is all about the dosage.”

Thiel owns Rumble?

R69 Yes! I feel like DLers still have a fantasy view of Europe as some progressive paradise. I heard that EU officials had contacted Biden’s team way back in 2022 to tell him that immigration would sink him. That he had to act immediately. Countries that had voted for gay marriage and abortion and female leaders, Ireland for example, were experiencing riots on the streets over immigration. The message did not get through until “the switch”.

The right has not only infiltrated, they have convinced people that the media is actually leftist and biased toward progressives. Progressive people in the US believe that too and try to be fair and balanced. Meanwhile the population is fed 99% right wing bullshit on their phones 24/7 but CNN and the NYT sane wash Trump and pick holes in Biden’s achievements because heaven forbid someone think they were left leaning. Any European country would kill for our economy. Yet here’s a bunch of Americans with McMansions, 4 cars, a boat, an RV, kids in private school and a firm belief they live in a failing state with a dreadful economy and schools that perform gender reassignment surgery for free during school hours and then put little Jenny nee Johnny back on the 4pm bus.

I don't think R11 is actually claiming Trump would be stronger than Harris in dealing with foreign wars, but that there is a perception that he's perceived as stronger by a certain section of the population. And I'm sure there are people in this country who see Trump as stronger, because he talks really loud and will back down from nothing, It's terrifying, but I think this is true.

The central perception of political parties is that Democrats are smarter, but that Republicans are stronger.

[Quote]there is a perception that he's perceived as stronger by a certain section of the population

Exactly, that's all I was trying to say

I just want it to be over. It has been exhausting.

R73 - Thiel and Vance is an investor too. Neither believe in democracy.

Please vote and volunteer. Jesus Christ these people are terrifying.

The people who think Trump is 'stronger' also think that Kamala is an idiot and male Dems are beta cucks. If a person is capable of seeing Dems as 'smarter', they are reachable voters who may be swayed by Kelly and Milley.

R69 I became a fan of Barbara McQuade through the Sisters In Law podcast. I bought her book right away when it was released and I was impressed with the research she did and it was very well written. I wish it would have gotten more mainstream media attention.

I won't be surprised about either of them. They both suck.

R56, stop copying and pasting baloney.

They really don’t R81 and you know it. That’s like saying that Islamic Fundamentalists and United Methodists both suck for gays since both are religions. The staunchest atheist can see that one is nowhere near as dangerous as the other.

Trump wears more makeup than Harris, spends more time on his hair than Harris, has a thinner skin than Harris, has more breast tissue than Harris, coos more when men flatter him, and spends more time rhapsodising about men’s penises than Harris. I don’t think many sexist foreign leaders are going to be too frightened of this “male figurehead”.

Maggie Thatcher was a female. Maggie thatcher went to war. Harris, She's a prosecutor by trade. I think she would do alright in a room with Putin and CO. They are just high faultin goons. She's used to being in rooms with goons. I'd be more surprised if the Orange stain wins.

Americans who think Trump is alpha have never heard of Thatcher or May or Merkel or Von der Leyen or Arden…..They feel (because they certainly don’t think) that these Middle Eastern sexists only meet the US president because they are only vaguely aware of life outside of our borders.

I'll be more surprised by Trump winning. I very much don't want it to happen and I operate partly on hope. Also, he lost the popular vote twice and there's even more crazy damning stories about him and more crazy statements from him this time. It would be wild to know his current presentation of the issues at hand is actively attracting more voters. It might be!

[quote]Harris was a ballsy pick for VP by Biden considering her performance at the Dem Primary Debates. He picked her based on qualifications and never got pissy over her debating.

He didn't pick her. He initially said he wanted a black female VP, but there was a point where he was leaning more towards Amy Kloubuchar or Gretchen Whitmier. It was the media, along with Jim Clyburn who pressured Biden to pick Harris.

And there was tension over how she attacked him on busing at the initial Presidential debate. A strong reason why he was wary of picking her in the first place. He was deeply upset because his son and Harris knew each other quite well and he felt she got too personal in her attack.

I love baloney- No really-I mean a good deli baloney on a good French roll with mustard/mayo. Must be about dinner time…

Nothing would surprise me more than signing on to Datalounge for one day without seeing 15 new Trump threads. Some of you bitches are truly demented and obsessed.

[quote]Russia and North Korea are at war with Ukraine. Israel is at war with Iran and Iranian proxies. Turkey's President is in Russia at Putin's anti-West summit.

R11 - The average American wouldn’t even be able to find any of those countries on a map, and even if they could they wouldn’t care because none of those events affects them directly. In fact, the overwhelming sentiment is: “Just let all those foreigners blow each other up!”

R90 Oh, shut up. The prospect of this vile creature being president again warrants any number of threads

[quote] Obviously Trump winning, seeing how she's leading him in the polls.

What polls? She's not leading him where it matters. They're running neck and neck in most places. I won't be surprised if either wins.

R69, the right hasn't really made many gains in Canada. In fact, just a couple of nights ago the Conservative Government in New Brunswick went down to a big defeat, with the leading losing his own seat.

Yes, the Trudeau Liberal Government is expected to lose to the Conservatives in the next Federal election, but that is more to do with Canadians usually changing government after a decade in power and because Trudeau overstayed his welcome.

R90 - Get a life.

There will always be more Trump threads until he gets the hot needle for Espionage and Margie holds the midnight candle. And more post mortem.