The Blue Wall is Fortifying Itself

Doesn't early voting always favor Democrats?

Always? Nope. Since 2020 yes

I just happen to have a doctor's appointment this week and I'm going to ask for something for anxiety. I picked the wrong time to take a 30-day break from alcohol.

R3, you picked the right time to take a 30-day break from alcohol.

Why, r4? So I can be hyper-aware that Trump might win this?

Early voting in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan will be Trump's undoing

R6 Link doesn't work.

Y'all who keep posting about early voting here tonight are putting way too much stock in it. So Democrats vote early, Republicans vote later, and what's the difference?

Dropping off my swing state ballot tomorrow. Locked and loaded (into the envelope).

Voting early is a vote the candidate doesn't have to worry about chasing come Election Day. That vote is in the bag

I have around 10 nieces and nephews in Western Michigan. Plus, they owe me cuz they didn't get me anything for Christmas. I'm gonna guilt-trip them into early voting for VPK.

Day by day, with the way Trump is acting, I'm convinced he doesn't care about the votes. I think he has people in place in the swing states that are going to rig the election for him no matter what.

He can't lose. He's going to try every trick in the book to not lose. Beware.

He can lose, as 2020 proved. Let's hope history repeats itself.

Voting early means bad weather, traffic jams, maggot road blocks or shit fits, late work meetings and “oh, I forgot” aren’t happening.

That vote is in the bank.

If it snows in rural Pennsylvania on Election Day, how many of them will be able to get to the polls in time? How many will just not go? Especially if they aren’t regular voters?

Okay, that makes more sense than just "early votes are Democrat votes, yay," which is what previous posts said.

[quote] I think he has people in place in the swing states that are going to rig the election for him no matter what.

With Democrats in control of the election apparatus in most of the swing states, I'm doubtful that the Trump forces will be successful.

I think the polls showing things tied are not accurate. Because a lot of these suburban women are going to vote Blue this time even though they’re not saying it publicly and because their husbands may be Republicans.

Hard to know what this means for the final result, though. Trump’s cult does what he says, and he’s spent the past several years demonizing early voting and mail-in voting. The vast majority of them will vote in person and only on November 5.

What’s funny is that more recently his handlers finally got through to him about this, and now he’s flip flopped and is urging his followers to vote early and by mail.

I seem to remember Josh saying in "The West Wing" that diehards and Democrats vote early.

For what it's worth.

[quote]Day by day, with the way Trump is acting, I'm convinced he doesn't care about the votes.

I don't think that's true at all. I think he's trying to wring every last vote out of the ignorant, resentful and fearful, knowing how huge that population is in America.

[quote] I think the polls showing things tied are not accurate. Because a lot of these suburban women are going to vote Blue this time even though they’re not saying it publicly and because their husbands may be Republicans.

Early voting may not produce the results we want. If these women are afraid to state their preferences out loud, they may similarly be leery about voting for Harris when filling out their ballots in the presence of their husbands.

If you watch the whole clip, the guy is not saying "more Democrats are voting early than Republicans". He is looking at changes in overall turnout in different counties, and also divergences from the predictive models he normally uses. He's mostly interested in how Democrats are going in counties that are usually pro-Democrat, and the gist is that so far turnout is up and the Dems are polling more strongly than he would have expected in those seats. It's extremely early days, obviously, but that's the kind of algorithm he's using.

He even points out that Michigan has made electoral changes that make it easier to vote early, so he's factoring that in. One of his key points is that turnout in Philadelphia has been dropping like a stone for the last five or so elections, but on these early figures that seems to be reversing. If that trend continues it's unexpectedly good news for the Dems.

White women make up the plurality of the electorate and they Are with Harris.