The Blue Wall is Fortifying Itself

Doesn't early voting always favor Democrats?

Always? Nope. Since 2020 yes

I just happen to have a doctor's appointment this week and I'm going to ask for something for anxiety. I picked the wrong time to take a 30-day break from alcohol.

R3, you picked the right time to take a 30-day break from alcohol.

Why, r4? So I can be hyper-aware that Trump might win this?

Early voting in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan will be Trump's undoing

R6 Link doesn't work.

Y'all who keep posting about early voting here tonight are putting way too much stock in it. So Democrats vote early, Republicans vote later, and what's the difference?

Dropping off my swing state ballot tomorrow. Locked and loaded (into the envelope).

Voting early is a vote the candidate doesn't have to worry about chasing come Election Day. That vote is in the bag

I have around 10 nieces and nephews in Western Michigan. Plus, they owe me cuz they didn't get me anything for Christmas. I'm gonna guilt-trip them into early voting for VPK.

Day by day, with the way Trump is acting, I'm convinced he doesn't care about the votes. I think he has people in place in the swing states that are going to rig the election for him no matter what.

He can't lose. He's going to try every trick in the book to not lose. Beware.

He can lose, as 2020 proved. Let's hope history repeats itself.

Voting early means bad weather, traffic jams, maggot road blocks or shit fits, late work meetings and “oh, I forgot” aren’t happening.

That vote is in the bank.

If it snows in rural Pennsylvania on Election Day, how many of them will be able to get to the polls in time? How many will just not go? Especially if they aren’t regular voters?

Okay, that makes more sense than just "early votes are Democrat votes, yay," which is what previous posts said.

[quote] I think he has people in place in the swing states that are going to rig the election for him no matter what.

With Democrats in control of the election apparatus in most of the swing states, I'm doubtful that the Trump forces will be successful.

I think the polls showing things tied are not accurate. Because a lot of these suburban women are going to vote Blue this time even though they’re not saying it publicly and because their husbands may be Republicans.

Hard to know what this means for the final result, though. Trump’s cult does what he says, and he’s spent the past several years demonizing early voting and mail-in voting. The vast majority of them will vote in person and only on November 5.

What’s funny is that more recently his handlers finally got through to him about this, and now he’s flip flopped and is urging his followers to vote early and by mail.

I seem to remember Josh saying in "The West Wing" that diehards and Democrats vote early.

For what it's worth.

[quote]Day by day, with the way Trump is acting, I'm convinced he doesn't care about the votes.

I don't think that's true at all. I think he's trying to wring every last vote out of the ignorant, resentful and fearful, knowing how huge that population is in America.

[quote] I think the polls showing things tied are not accurate. Because a lot of these suburban women are going to vote Blue this time even though they’re not saying it publicly and because their husbands may be Republicans.

Early voting may not produce the results we want. If these women are afraid to state their preferences out loud, they may similarly be leery about voting for Harris when filling out their ballots in the presence of their husbands.

If you watch the whole clip, the guy is not saying "more Democrats are voting early than Republicans". He is looking at changes in overall turnout in different counties, and also divergences from the predictive models he normally uses. He's mostly interested in how Democrats are going in counties that are usually pro-Democrat, and the gist is that so far turnout is up and the Dems are polling more strongly than he would have expected in those seats. It's extremely early days, obviously, but that's the kind of algorithm he's using.

He even points out that Michigan has made electoral changes that make it easier to vote early, so he's factoring that in. One of his key points is that turnout in Philadelphia has been dropping like a stone for the last five or so elections, but on these early figures that seems to be reversing. If that trend continues it's unexpectedly good news for the Dems.

White women make up the plurality of the electorate and they Are with Harris.

........

Re: Election Day

Kamala is gonna win this thing!

Oh, how I was hoping your source wasn't Simon Rosenberg, R27.

R8, the implication is that democrats vote MORE

This is the latest from Arnon Mishkin. He's at Fox, but he's known as an outstanding analyst who isn't put off by what the Murdochs want to hear (he was the one who called Arizona early in 2020).

It's quite technical, but then it should be with the polls looking so close.

[quote] He's at Fox, but he's known as an outstanding analyst who isn't put off by what the Murdochs want to hear (he was the one who called Arizona early in 2020).

There really should no longer be a need to preface this any longer. The Fox News polling operation is wholly separate from the rest of the organization & has long enjoyed a very good reputation.

I don't buy the women are mad at Trump argument.

In 2016 election white women voted for Trump 51%

In 2020 election white women voted for Trump 53%

So, even after 4 years of his misogyny, incompetence, blatant corruption, 2% more white women voted for Trump. It's part tribal, part cultural. Even with the reversal of Roe v. Wade by Trump's supreme court, white women will still vote against their own self interest.

I'd like a breakdown on the Trump-era voting patterns of white, straight, married women. Probably much closer to that of their husbands.

R32, Harry Enten did an analysis this week finding Trump losing support among white women. He found that, while Trump won that demographic by 7 points in the last election, he is now up only 1. Enten said that’s significant because - by his measure - white women are 36% of likely voters, making them a key to victory for either Trump or Harris.

I’d like to see the white, straight, married women vote broken down by education…college or not. I suspect there’s a divide.

That’s right, R32. Because they believe all those other whites women are WHORES.

Really, R31? I’m not so sure.

Really.

People are sick of Trump's shit. She will win this.

Dude predicts Kamla wins at 72%; and basis it on the Dow Jones 97% accuracy going back all the way to the 1800's. People vote their pocketbook

[quote]People are sick of Trump's shit. She will win this

Agreed, r39, but then the fight really begins.

Look at all the ppl waiting to see Harris. This was this afternoon in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Roevember 5th! We will have won!!

Cheat to win.

Democrats are holding on to N Carolina, Georgia is our problem child

[quote] Democrats are holding on to N Carolina, Georgia is our problem child

If only it was just Georgia.

A whole legion of black students came out to vote for Queen K in N Carolina

[quote]If only it was just Georgia.

Oh, dear.

R47, I'm always interested in self-improvement, so please help me understand where I went so wrong as to elicit an "Oh, dear."

If only it was just Georgia.

MAGA Troll alert. Happy to have you blocked.

If you think I’m a troll, you sure haven’t looked at my posting history. Or you have redefined a troll to include realists who seek to be intellectually honest.

GO down ballot too! if we lose the senate, Harris may be a lame-duck president her first day!

R50 you will definitely will be called that around these parts, being intellectually honest. It got so bad that anytime I stated anything critical of my beautiful Kamala I would conclude the comment with Harris/Walz.

Harris/Walz 24

R50, R48 , don't mind R52. He's the resident mad black tranny. You are doing good. I don't get the oh, dear snark, either. Weirdo needs to get laid.

R53 what are you talking about. I’m defending r52. lol at me being a tranny. Yeah right.

I meant r50.

Thanks for the support. It's rich to think that I could be called a troll when it was an I who - after looking at the AtlasIntel poll numbers - excitedly, albeit erroneously, posted in another thread this morning that Harris would eke out a 270-268 win (even in the face of the poll showing Trump in the national popular vote lead), if (i) those state poll numbers held up, (ii) Nebraska-2 went to Harris, & (iii) there were no surprises among the non-battlegrounds.

[quote]A whole legion of black students came out to vote for Queen K in N Carolina

"Queen K"? Can you get any more ridiculous?

Sure R57 I can. I could marry an Eastern European prostitute illegal immigrant. My apt could be a tacky gold color. I could talk about Arnold Palmers dick size. I could be white men's wet dream

tr0mp SHIT his pants

Women voters will put a stop to Trump, as they should.

White women. Harris support among THE most important group will carry her. Roe-vemember 5th! We will have won!!

After the abortion decision, Republicans should not be even close to winning any elections anymore. That anti-choice candidates are still tied is ridiculous to me.

CNN reports that non college voters are being peeled away from Trump. And this is 51% of the Blue Wall states. In 2016, Trump had a 25 pt advantage and this year is at 19 pt this year! This is huge! They are the big enchilada of the electorate