The majority of black voters are for Kamala. Bad News for Kamala.

They’re ready to blame everything on black folks instead of all the white men and women who vote for Republicans.

raci$t le$bian troll alert!!

It's vomitous. What the fuck happened? How can the media so actively make this a horse race. Trump is imploding before our eyes.

NYT = pro-Trump tabloid. Their executives want those multimillionaire tax cuts with Trump in the lead for their lucrative horse race.

The media isn’t making it a horse race, R3. It is a horse race. Trump is not imploding. According to a growing number of swing state polling aggregates, Trump is well positioned to be the next President of the United States. We’re in big trouble right now.

That’s why the New York Times wrote that article. They see calamity ahead, and they’re getting ready to blame black people.

I am the OP and I know it is a horserace but it has been facilitated by the media treating Trump as a legitimate candidate for the past year. He is THE candidate, true, but he's a total disaster.

The New York Times news quiz took a gratuitous swipe at Harris. The question was about the network of her town hall, but they felt obliged to add that she dodged questions. In the news quiz.

NYT is as bad as Faux News with the lies. Black men and women are overwhelmingly for Kamala, despite the roughly two percent of black men who inexplicably can’t find it within themselves to back her. Even if all black men didn’t vote for her, she would still win if white men and women would stop their harmful predilections for casting a vote for a criminal fascist dictator wannabe and do the right thing. White women in particular, who are the largest voting block and who betrayed Hillary by voting for Dump. Thing is, this time around white women will be voting with their own rights (and uteruses) in mind, which is not only good for Kamala but for all up and down the ticket for Democrats.

The republicans have been flooding the polling with fake and partisan inside polling to tilt the aggregate polls. They did it last time and they're doing it with much more force this time.

Stop it OP/Alexei

Will you please stop referring to her as Kamala? It is incredibly sexist and disrespectful. Why do people only refer to female candidates by their first name?

[quote] The republicans have been flooding the polling with fake and partisan inside polling to tilt the aggregate polls.

More bullshit you just pulled out of your prolapsed asshole.

R11, fuck off.

Are you the OP r13? If so, the title of this thread is something one of the talking heads on Fox News would say. Referring to her by her first name diminishes her credibility and is weakening her campaign. Is that your objective or is it unconscious bias?

point taken

I am OP and NOT the miserable cunt at R13. I take the point about typing Kamala instead of Harris.

R11 They do that to Miss Lindsey too. It is so rude to treat a lady that way.

The comments here are so out of touch. These voters are disillusioned with Democrats over their failed promises. The Dems did not pass police reform like they said they would. Also, many of these voters did better under Trump's economy. There are actual factors that account for the migration. Their race doesn't obligate them to vote for a Dem.

[quote] I am the OP and I know it is a horserace but it has been facilitated by the media treating Trump as a legitimate candidate for the past year.

The "media" no longer has the influence it once did.

The majority may not be enough, OP, when Harris's numbers seem to be lagging in a key constituency group.

If she is not pulling the same majority of supporter from black voters that Obama or Biden pulled, how is the NYT bullshitting? Are the missing ten per cent going to vote for her anyway?

r11 Now that you bring it up, it is weird that people call her that, yet no one says "Joe" or "Barack" or "Bill." They all get the last-name as the default. Strange.

Legacy media is too buys, like in 2016, wagering the odds of elections, instead of evaluating the stakes of the elections

People seem to have selective memory about Trump’s economy. Like Barack Obama so eloquently put the other night, Trump INHERITED the economy that Obama left for him, then fucked it up with tax cuts for the top 1% which exploded the deficit, his disastrous trade wars which hurt farmers, and his complete COVID fuck ups (which we now know included sending our kits and tests to RUSSIA). I seem to remember people with good government jobs standing in long food lines multiple times under his presidency and how he didn’t want to give out stimulus checks (that were distributed thanks to the House, not Trump). And then he held them back so that he could scribble his signature on them as if he was personally passing them out from his own bank account. Anyone who says we were better off in ANY way under DonOld is a disingenuous troll at best and a moron at worst.

Democrats overall are losing support from young black and Hispanic men.

Obama even spoke about it yesterday so it’s not media fake news.It’s real.

R25, not black men. Black men will still turn out at least at 85% for democrats, as they always do. And the VP is making inroads with Latinos, including the men. Paola Ramos and Fernand Amandi have recently stated that they feel confident that the Latino voters are moving in the right direction. Take that nonsense disinformation elsewhere.

Why did Obama gave a speech telling black males to get over it and support Harris, US News reported 3 days ago the race is still tight in AA and Nevada because Hispanic males aren’t coming in for her,

No one is saying she won’t get the big majority of the black and Hispanic vote. But to go from 85% to 75% is significant in states where elections are decided by such slim numbers.

There is a significant difference between 90% and 72%.

You “don’t bring me any bad news I’m not listening la-la-la-la-la- I can’t hear you” types are far more annoying than the Times.

…give. Arizona not AA. I think the next group Harris should get to endorse her is Hispanic athletes and entertainers. Mostly male.

On the other hand, Harris's lagging support among Black men may not be as dispositive in the overwhelming Blue Wall states. And it may contribute to Nate Cohn's theory of the case that Harris does not need to win the popular vote by 3-4% to win the Electoral College.

I think the bigger problem is young Hispanic men who are leaving the Democrats. Since the US will become a minority majority country very soon, this is a big future issue.

Harris will win because she will win the suburbs.

If that is offset by losses significant enough among black voters, that it gives Trump a victory, then black voters will be blamed. There will be articles for weeks and weeks and weeks. It will mark a turning point in how traditionally liberal media outlets view black Americans, probably even worse than the OJ Simpson trial. Just think piece after think piece of how blacks could not overcome entrenched sexism, how black culture’s toxic masculinity was treated with kid gloves out of fear of being accused of racism, and how black people will never be able to help themselves no matter how much you try to help them (Harris was basically given the nomination.)

Black community leaders KNOW this. They are not stupid. That is why I do not expect defections among black men to be as significant as the polls state. Community leaders will bring them around come hell or high water.

This DKOS diary has a lot of debunking and offers a much clearer picture of what's going on

Much clearer or telling us what we want to hear?

Some people seem to be forgetting how the Democrats, who were supposed to be obliterated by the “red wave,” overperformed all over the country in elections over the last couple of years and largely overcame the odds and the negativity of the pearl clutchers, thanks in part to the killing of Roe. The negative Nancys are underestimating just how over it people are. People are tired of the Republican hate and shenanigans. They are tired of Trump and his bullshit.

[quote] Harris was basically given the nomination

Yes, plucked out of the ghetto and handed the nomination. They were going to hand it to Shaneequah but the bus arrived and she couldn't wait so they saw Kamala crossing the street after her shift at Walgreens and said 'you look black.....enough. Get in the car now, we have a job for you'

When I saw the huge movement for Kamala in The Villages in Florida, I knew that a change was coming. The Cheneys not only rebuking Trump but backing VP Harris cinched it for me.

[quote] Some people seem to be forgetting how the Democrats, who were supposed to be obliterated by the “red wave,” overperformed all over the country in elections over the last couple of years and largely overcame the odds and the negativity of the pearl clutchers, thanks in part to the killing of Roe

So the right thing to do is assume it will happen again? That the pollsters did nothing to compensate for that mistake and history is bound to repeat. That’s the sensible take?

Some people seem to be forgetting how the Democrats, who were supposed to be obliterated by the “red wave,” overperformed all over the country in elections over the last couple of years and largely overcame the odds and the negativity of the pearl clutchers, thanks in part to the killing of Roe.

Not entirely true. There WAS a red wave of sorts in some parts of the country. In Florida, certainly, & in many parts of NY & California, the wave in the latter states resulting in the House flipping.

[quote]So the right thing to do is assume it will happen again?

Assume nothing. Get out and vote blue all up and down the ticket. This thread needs to be bookmarked should a giant tsunami blue wave come on Nov 5 and swallow up all the mis and disinformation, which I have a sneaking suspicion is going to happen.

[quote]Not entirely true. There WAS a red wave of sorts in some parts of the country. In Florida, certainly, & in many parts of NY & California, the wave in the latter states resulting in the House flipping.

On the greater scale, it was a trickle, not a wave. And the gerrymandering of NY is why the house flipped, which is cheating on top of the flaccid supposed wave.

Everytime someone mentions this minor but not unimportant support of black men for Trump we all are called Boris or defacto. Everytime.

Disinformation is when you read something you don’t like. Is this like Harry Potter where you can’t say a name or something bad happens? If it wasn’t a problem, Obama wouldn’t have addressed it in a speech. He’s very careful about what he says and when.

[quote] On the other hand, Harris's lagging support among Black men may not be as dispositive in the overwhelming Blue Wall states.

In this partial post, Nate Silver makes a similar argument:

The past quarter-century of American politics has been dominated by two major trends. One is simply increasing political polarization: red states have perpetually become redder, and blue states bluer. In 1996, only 7 states were decided by 20 or more percentage points. But in 2020, 19 states were, leading to many wasted votes.

The other is increasing polarization along educational lines. As recently as 20061, there was basically no difference in voting Democratic or Republican based on whether a voter had graduated from college. But in 2020, Joe Biden won 54 percent of the vote among white voters who’d graduated from college but just 37 percent who hadn’t, according to estimates from the data firm Catalist.2

These educational splits have typically been lesser among nonwhite voters. But the increasing educational divide is coming into tension with the most longstanding feature of American politics: racial polarization. Since the Civil Rights Era, Black voters have been the building blocks of the Democratic coalition, voting for them in overwhelming numbers. Hispanic and Asian American voters have been more swingy but have usually at least leaned toward the Democratic Party.

However, Black and Hispanic voters are more working class — less likely to have completed college degrees — than white ones. So in principle, a continued increase in educational polarization would lead to erosion in Democratic support among these groups, but gains with white ones. From an Electoral College standpoint, this would actually be a good trade for Democrats since white voters are overrepresented in their impact on the Electoral College relative to their share of the overall voting population.

And in some polls, that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Donald Trump’s polling against Joe Biden had consistently shown him making huge gains with Black and Hispanic voters, especially younger voters and those without college degrees. Kamala Harris’s numbers have improved among these groups, but the same trend persists, including in the most high-quality surveys. For instance, a New York Times/Siena College oversample of Black voters from their recent national survey showed Trump winning 15 percent of the Black vote, up from 9 percent in 2020. That’s not great — Black voters are still very, very Democratic — but it’s potentially enough to make the difference in states like Georgia.

Meanwhile, a recent national NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll exclusively of Hispanic voters showed Harris winning them by only 14 points. Keep in mind that there’s never any hard evidence of how any racial group votes — we have to rely on exit polls and ecological inference, which themselves can be subject to error — but that’s a considerably narrower margin than in recent elections. In 2020, Biden won Latinos by 28 points, according to the AP Votecast exit poll, and 26 points per Catalist’s data. However, Harris is slightly improving on Biden’s performance in many if not most polls of white voters.

If these trends are real, then you’d also expect to see shifts in the electoral landscape, with Harris making gains in the whiter states, including the Blue Wall battlegrounds of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — but Trump improving his performance in the more racially diverse Sun Belt. And you do get exactly that in some surveys. A pair of NYT/Siena polls on Saturday found Harris leading Trump by 4 points in Pennsylvania but Trump up by 6 in Arizona.

But while these numbers are similar to previous NYT/Siena of these states, they differ from the polling averages there, which show much closer races in both cases — and they also differ from certain other high-quality surveys. Just this week, for instance, Wall Street Journal polls showed Trump 1 point ahead in Pennsylvania but Harris leading by 2 in Arizona. So let’s take deeper look and see if we can untangle the mystery.

Another weekend, another troll locust swarm....

[quote] In this partial post, Nate Silver

I stopped reading your post right there and went to consult tea leaves.

[quote] The Dems did not pass police reform like they said they would.

Translation: Democrats didn’t abolish the police.