Was Milton a milquetoast?

We don’t really know yet how bad it was or if there was any loss of life. Obviously, there is a lot of flooding and property damage. Lives may have been saved because so many people evacuated. It was made worse because it came so soon behind Helene before all the debris could be removed & repairs made.

No, we absolutely need emergency warnings to assume the worst - what we don't need is terrible public education and an enormous propaganda industry dedicated to making Americans as dumb and schizophrenic as possible. There's also no real information estimating the damage from Milton right now.

The issue was that if it had hit Tampa Bay with its storm surge, it would have been catastrophic, but otherwise it’s just another hurricane.

I was geeking out on the forecasts yesterday... and until early afternoon there was still a significant chance that Milton's eye would wobble north a bit. If that had happened, the storm surge would have been an order of magnitude worse for Tampa Bay. Hurricanes are not entirely predictable.

But, yeah. Milton was not one of Florida's worst ever hurricanes, not by a long shot.

It seems like residents just accept there’ll be 2 ft of flooding every time.

Looking at weather cams, the street lights didn’t even go off in Tampa waterfront and a couple Sarasota high rises on the shore also had power. The barrier islands must’ve got the worst of it and the neighborhood near Palm Springs that got hit by a tornado.

A dud.

Unfortunately this will lead people in the Tampa Bay storm surge areas to just refuse to evacuate next time. It's a high-risk dice roll each time, but it's human nature to make decisions based on our most recent experiences.

No - weather is hard to predict. That's like saying your house wasn't hit by an E5 tornado that tornadoes aren't dangerous and people shouldn't protect themselves.

There is an old novel called Condominium by John D MacDonald that vividly portrays the worst case scenario for that area of Florida. It could definitely be catastrophic if a big storm hits just right.

Since predictions are not precise, it is always prudent to prepare for the worst. “Better safe than sorry.”

It dropped a lot of water on an already wet place. Also, a tornado it spawned killed people.

The National Weather Prediction Service believes that three Tampa Bay-area rivers will reach major flooding status and potentially break records later today:

Hillsborough River near Zephyrhills, record 15.3ft in 1960, forecast to reach 16.3ft

Cypress Creek at Worthington Gardens, record 13.8ft in 2004, forecast to reach 15ft

Hillsborough River at Morris Bridge, record 34.7ft in 2017, forecast to reach 35.2ft

The question of whether to flee or ride it out is not always easy. Fleeing is disruptive and often expensive. I can under the impulse to try to scare people (“If you stay in an evacuation zone you will die”), but in the long run such tactics may be counterproductive. Next time people are less likely to listen.

I'd like my donation back, please. I'm not paying for electrial outages.

And John D McDonald lived in Sarasota.

He and Carl Hiasson include a lot of environmental concerns in their novels about Florida.

One guy opened his car door and found a live alligator.

I did a book report in 5th grade on Condominium R9. The movie starred Barbara Eden and a cast of thousands!

My teacher was annoyed that I chose such trash, but it was her fault because she said we could report on any book in the library!

[quote]overdoing the warnings diminishes their effectiveness for the future

Therefore, it would be better to UNDERdo the warnings?

If only there were somewhere between overdoing and underdoing it. A middle ground, if you will.

Like instead of having the Tampa mayor say “if you stay you will die,” say “if the worst case scenario comes to pass, many people will die.”

It is so very American to hyperexaggerate and get hysterical and dramatic about everything instead of just fucking dealing with it.

As the death count keeps rising, it’s looking more like the authorities were right. There are usually deaths after the storm too, from everything to heart attacks to chain saw accidents.

Of course you've got to warn people about the worst-case scenario. It's impossible to predict exactly what a storm will do, hurricanes are tricky bastards and will veer onto a different course when you least expect it.

MAGA Twitter seems to think this proves some kind of conspiracy, but don't they always?

r9 I saw the tv movie of Condominium while I was staying in a condo in Florida back in the 80's

[quote]It is so very American to hyperexaggerate and get hysterical and dramatic about everything instead of just fucking dealing with it.

This is due to the hyper-litigiousness of American society. There would be endless lawsuits if someone died because they weren’t explicitly told by the government that they would die if they didn’t evacuate during a natural disaster.

[quote] One guy opened his car door and found a live alligator.

LOL, what? Did the alligator have keys, or did the idiot leave his windows down during a hurricane?

It was overhyped if you lived in area that was "under warning" (not threat) and nothing happened. Where I am (north of Orlando), we were looking at major damage. I never even lost power -- Duke Energy is really good during a storm. Aside from the occasional gust, it was just a tropical depression/Cat 1, or what people would call nor'easters when I lived in NYC.

But, if you were in Sarasota/Ft Myers area -- well shit.

Overdoing the warning is irrelevant. That’s your value judgement not fact. Further if you believe that because it was not the most destructive storm in history as predicted (and I disagree with that silly statement) then it’s overhyped. Warnings to protect life and property are not hyperbole. They are based on computer models of storms which have become amazingly accurate. You are simply aping mostly Repub pol rhetoric which HAS impeded rescue.

Suggest you visit central FLA in a few weeks and ask its citizens whether the warnings were accurate or measured correctly.

John Milton was, indeed, a milquetoast. He rattled on about the Commonwealth and civil war, and then hid when the tide turned.

Being blind is no excuse.

What?

Oh.

Never mind.

This doesn't meet my definition of "milquetoast," but you do you:

The death toll from Milton has risen to at least 16.

Since Hurricane Milton made landfall, 999 individuals and 105 animals have been rescued by Urban Search and Rescue Teams and the Florida National Guard

More than 2.5 million customers across the state are still without power as of Friday.

Numerous ports in Florida, including St. Petersburg and Fort Myers, remain closed.

30 wate-line breaks in St. Petersburg have necessitated a boil-water notice for residents.

St. Lucie recorded about 900 calls for help within a 90-minute window.

And we don't yet know how many structures were damaged or destroyed.

You can give the warnings without pretending to be certain when it is impossible to be certain. Telling people they are going to die if they stay when the hurricane does not hit may work this time, but it’s counterproductive next time.

R29 This is the problem. They stay & they don’t die this time so they think they won’t die next time. So many Floridians have been through hurricanes, but each one is different and it really depends on exactly where & when it hits, which is hard to predict. People are often relieved to find it wasn’t as bad as they thought it would be, even though there is some damage. Of course, some people do die or suffer catastrophic losses though.

Replies condensed equal about 33% yes, 33% maybe & 33% no. Not a lot of consensus there. It would be interested to know more about the respondents like their age & where they live.

[quote] They stay & they don’t die this time so they think they won’t die next time.

I’m not concerned with those who refused to listen. They are not going anywhere no matter what officials say. I’m concerned about those who wanted to stay but listened and fled and came home to find minor or no damage. Many will not trust the warnings in the future.

What’s your agenda dear OP? You sound like a right wing nut job.

Hard to believe people are dumb enough to think the weather is controlled.

R34 - That gives me an idea...

It was sufficient.