News Nation Poll

The poll I saw this afternoon had her up by 4 in Wisconsin.

Make an appointment to discuss your questions with your therapist. Hopefully, they advise you to use the existing thread for poll results.

That's great news, R1!

The misinformation by right wing media aside, I am still not clear about what makes the Democrats so fundamentally unelectable for the center-right. Their candidate is pretty much a psychopath, and the party has no principles or vision. And yet this still seems to be more favorable than voting for Democrats. Is the left wing of the Democrats so frightening? Have Democrats let the people down so dramatically in economic and safety terms that made them unelectable? I'm guessing that Democrats' stance on racism which is much more pronounced now than 20, 30 years ago is the reason. When Democrats say they want to support the poor, the perception is that this support is limited to the poor people of color, not white poors. Could this be it?

You all have to stop twisting yourself into knots about the polls, it’s bad enough that the media is obsessed with them.

They poll less thand 2,000 (in a country of over 300,000,000) and since polls in 2016 and 2020 were so wrong (as they likely will be this year for other reasons) they overpoll conservative Republican voters because it was felt those were being overlooked in other years.

But Republicans routinely lie to pollsters, considering them “the enemy” and these polls will not overpoll women, people of color or new voters under 40, who are particularly energized by the Harris/Walz campaign and will be turning out in record numbers.

And make no mistake about this: abortion remains the #1 motivator for women and young people to turn out in droves, because it finally woke the electorate up to the fact that the well-endowed (by Libertarian billionaires) Heritage Foundation (Project 2025) and the Federalist Society (the specious Originalist theory which packed our Supreme Court) have plotted this takeover of our political system for years with Trump the useful idiot as the face of fascism.

Yeah, people care about the price of eggs, but don’t let the media into lull you into thinking Americans are asleep at the wheel. Some are, most are not. Not anymore.

[quote] But Republicans routinely lie to pollsters, considering them “the enemy”

Stop making shit up.

R4, it comes down to social issues.

They’re eating the dogs, they’re eating the cats, they’re eating, they’re eating the pets ...

That's why. And that's the foundation of the Republican platform, because we're supposed to have one.

R6 The Republican party is a beleaguered, unpopular minority party in this country, despite their outsized influence and power of late.

Their politicians routinely lie, their media routinely lies, so why wouldn’t Republican voters routinely lie to pollsters about everything? They know what the message is and deliver it by rote.

R4, Democrats have to appeal to a big tent, everyone from a centrist lawyer to a they/them pro-Hamas co-op worker. The messaging can therefore get diluted. Republicans only need a portion of white people to win and can hammer home slogans consistently. That is why the "weird" messaging this time is unique. It is easy for most people to grasp and you can repeat it over and over.

I find it hard to believe that the election will be close.

R11, she’s a black woman from California. Of course it’s going to be close.

R12, she an Asian woman from California. Of course it's going to be close.

I cannot overstate how full of assholes the commonwealth of Pennsylvania is.

There is NO way she's simultaneously ahead in Georgia and behind in Wisconsin. Ignore this one and just track the averages.

Pollers ask ten Democrats and they all say Kamala, then they ask ten Republicans and they all answer Trump. That's a tie, that's a close race according to them yet they have ZERO idea how many are going to actually come out and vote. It's the women who are going to get out and save their reproductive rights. And there will be Republican women voting for Harris in the privacy of the ballot box.

R14, as a lifelong PA native, I agree. I love the Commonwealth, but between Philly and Pittsburgh, it’s a vast wasteland of idiocy. They’re stubbornly and willfully ignorant. They vigorously refuse to pry open their nailed shut minds, at their own detriment.

[quote] The Republican party is a beleaguered, unpopular minority party in this country

It doesn’t make sense to call either party a “minority” party in the country, since all elections are state and local (including the election of a state’s Electors) and both parties have states in which they are the majority. You could say for an individual state that it has a majority and minority party (for example, the Democratic Party is the minority party in Wyoming).

[quote] I love the Commonwealth, but between Philly and Pittsburgh, it’s a vast wasteland of idiocy. They’re stubbornly and willfully ignorant. They vigorously refuse to pry open their nailed shut minds, at their own detriment.

The people in the middle probably have choice words nailing the people of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh also.

She's not trailing in Wisconsin. She is at least 4-5 points ahead. According to legitimate polling. But if you're the Republican machine and you want to steal or suppress or block votes, you perpetuate the fiction that it is close because you can claim fraud and not certify ballots. There are a ton of garbage polls out here generated by Republican polling firms, designed to be disruptive. Just keep working.

[quote] I cannot overstate how full of assholes the commonwealth of Pennsylvania is.

Ding! Ding! Ding!

R14 for the win.

Anything outside of Philadelphia is Pennsyltucky.

I really love 💕 and trust NewsNation

[quote]Anything outside of Philadelphia is Pennsyltucky.

More fucking east coast arrogance.

Well, there are plenty of "dumb Dutchmen," (i.e., PA Dutch, i.e. people of German "Deutsch" extraction, like my family, who go back to the late 1600s in PA), but they do make the best damned food. When I go home, other than to visit my family, that's why I go back there.

Harrisburg is the state capital which is reliably Democratic and majority Black. I used to describe it as a smaller version of D.C. York is basically a suburb of Baltimore. There's the ABE (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton) metro area, which is pretty much part of NJ. And as in most of the country, the urban areas in PA tend to be Democratic, and the rural areas Republican. But there are more urban areas than just Philly and Pittsburgh.

There are nuances, people. That's why it's a swing state.

[quote] York is basically a suburb of Baltimore

York is a strange town.

I've visited family there before, and it's completely segregated.

It was really bizarre.

But R24, tell me about SCRANTON, Joe Biden's home town.

What's it like there? Is it as blue collar and folksy as he makes it seem?

If you think York is weird, don't go to Scranton.

There's a big sign announcing that Scranton is "The Electric City," due to the fact that Scranton was one of the first cities to run completely on electricity. It creeped me out, but I'm not really sure why.

And I have lived in some really blue-collar towns (both my grandfathers worked in the steel industry), but Scranton really takes the cake. The weather is dank and depressing. The buildings are really old, and many are vacant. People seem despondent.

You should probably ask the WNEP16 guy, because he lives in that area; I was only in Scranton a handful of times for work situations, and I lived in East Stroudsburg for six months, but I got outta there as fast as I could.

My favorite part about Harrisburg was being driven to the airport, and seeing the 3-Mile Island nuclear plant cooling towers in the background.

Creepy!

I used to see Scranton from the Interstate on our yearly road trips to Florida for xmas & new years. Fascinating from the car window but my parents never wanted to stop there for a meal break. It was as if there was some unspoken reason to avoid Scranton.

Pennsylvania...

There's Philadelphia in the east.

Pittsburgh in the west.

And Alabama in the middle.

And I think the movie The Deer Hunter was set there.

i grew up in PA - my parents still live there. I had to drive to Kutztown to pick up my brother for labor day (as i do every year) I take the backroads to get there. This is the first election (of the last three/Trump years) that I saw Harris (Dems) signs in people's yards. Trump signs still dominates though. R26 - yes - Scranton is balls - so many of those towns are oxy towns (there's that state prison)

I lived in a Harrisburg suburb for 20 years and to be honest, it was a pretty great experience. There were some liberals but it was mostly Bush Republicans. A few very right-wingers but the Bush types were dismissive of them. Very small town with a lot of red brick homes, trees, etc. I was kind of a time capsule. Kids walked to school, parades on the holidays where the town participated, Santa Claus on a fire truck that passed candy to every kid in town. I moved from there almost 20 years ago but remember it fondly.

Harrisburg was interesting. It had a pretty good bar and restaurant scene. There were four or five gay bars is a pretty small city, plus a couple that weren't but you could meet someone there. Since it is the capital, a lot of reps and staffers came from Philly and Pittsburgh. I hear it's not the same now.

[quote]Joe Biden and Josh Shapiro need to get to work in Pennsylvania.

I agree. PA is the surest way to win the election

I know it seems that Joe Biden is a "lame duck" President right now, but we can still use his help.

President Biden could be the key to winning Pennsylvania for the Democrats, if he canvasses the state for the next month and a half.

And he should take Josh Shapiro and John Fetterman with him.

Don't count him out yet.

It's all hands on deck!!

[quote] I cannot overstate how full of assholes the commonwealth of Pennsylvania is.

It’s Pennsyltucky. People seem to think PA is Philly. PA is hick conservative white trash.

No, r34. She’s trying to distance herself from him. He’s historically unpopular.

Meanwhile, Philly has massive Trump flags up all over the place, including businesses. For every Harris sign there are 15 Trump ones. It’s crazy.

[quote]Is the left wing of the Democrats so frightening?

It’s the Trans stuff.

[quote] Is the left wing of the Democrats so frightening?

What the Republican Party has done - somewhat effectively - is make white Americans think that they are under siege.

It's race-baiting, fear mongering, and xenophobia at its finest.

The messaging has been, "Democrats want to take white jobs because of Affirmative Action and DEI, they want to trans your children, they want to kill unborn babies, they want to let immigrants into your country to kill and rape your daughters, and now they're even eating your pets!!"

And the problem is that in a bad economy, in uncertain times, this fear mongering plays into the minds of people who are indeed fearful.

That's what Republicans have done, through lies and propaganda - Fox News, QAnon, NewsMax, etc. - and that's the picture they have painted of Democrats over the past 25 years.

It's weird that people would actually believe the bullshit, but when you hammer that message into their brains 24/7, it's bound to take hold.

Biden has been quietly campaigning. I think their strategy is to kind of highlight the future with Harris and her plans instead of falling into the trap of forcing her to defend Biden's administration. They were locked and loaded for Biden. They were ready to run against him. Once he was ut they thought they could still use him to pound on Harris forcing her to defend the past instead of talking about her administration and the future. I agree he would help in PA, but he should continue to be low key. After all, he dropped out because he couldn't run the country and run for re election at the same time.

I highly doubt these polls are accurate. I’m in PA and haven’t been polled at all this year.

[quote] I highly doubt these polls are accurate. I’m in PA and haven’t been polled at all this year.

Imagine that.

In a state of 13 million, what are the chances that YOU R41, haven't been polled this year??

What a shocker.

R37 can you name a few businesses

I should do a poll: "How many of you have ever taken an introductory statistics class?"

Not too many, I bet.

If you can get a random sample of 1500 people, it's enough to gauge the opinions of the entire country. The problem is that, because of cell phones and various scammers keeping people from answering their phones, it is almost impossible at this point to get a truly random sample.

I could go into this at a much more granular level, but if you're curious, look it up for yourself online.

I agree senior lesbian. So who is answering their phones? Are pollsters getting data another way? Since Dobbs, the Republican vote has been overestimated. During the primaries, Trump's vote was overestimated. Where are we now?

R44 it's not just the sampling, it's the polling instrument.

[quote] I highly doubt these polls are accurate. I’m in PA and haven’t been polled at all this year.

That’s not how polling works. Did you even graduate high school? Jesus Christ.

They also poll people publicly. It’s not just by phone.

All I'm saying is that the samples are bad, and subsequently, the polls are bad. You can't really trust any of them, although researchers do their best to attempt to balance out the bad sampling with stratified samples and weighting. Those techniques have been used for quite a while, but now they are absolutely necessary.

When I found out how easy it was to sign up to be on the YouGov panel (and check how easy it is!), and I realized how many surveys were using the YouGov data as their source, I gave up looking at them.

As far as I can tell. there are no good polls anymore.

If you can’t trust Bill O’Reilly?