Nate Silver is Now Predicting a Trump Win

No, his forecast model has Trump at a slight advantage. That does not mean predicting a win.

Surely you understand what a probability model is.

Are you autistic or something?

No wait, autistic people created probability models.

OP is dumb, or a troll. A distinction without a difference.

Nate Silver has limited relevance for some time. If he’s in Thiel’s pocket now, he’s underwater.

Go to hell, Nate!

Silver Fish Infestation.

OP, the holiday weekends are the longest weekends of all, aren’t they?

Also spoketh by OP, about Kamala’s campaign poster:

[Quote] R11 Well the artist didn’t know Kamala was black until all of a sudden she turned black.

I say NO SHIT SHERLOCK

OP, Nate Silver's predictions are only valid when they indicate Kamala has the advantage.

Polymarket

Nate has a checkered history with predictions, to put it mildly. In OP’s article, he explains that he “assumes” that post-convention polls don’t actually mean what they say. His argument is based on an unquantifiable belief.

Defuckto and Attmay have a long, lonely weekend in front of them, being alone with their thoughts and confronting everything wrong with their lives. Expect more shitposting like this.

The WSJ, which has bitterly resisted admitting that Harris has any advantage, released its most recent poll, which gives her “a slim lead.” Trump has failed to tarnish her image. Voters, shockingly, “view Harris in a more positive light than they view Trump.”

Thanks for cracking that one, WSJ. Their office must be staffed by modern day Miss Marples.

The betting sites had Hillary with about a 90% chance to win in 2016, Matt. So must for their accuracy.

OP is trolling--his headline is not supported by the article to which he links, and he knows it.

The betting sites were right about Hillary. She had a 90% chance. Unfortunately, the 10% happened,

I sacrificed a musty goat and a wire haired terrier to lord god Baphomet 🐐, to thank him for the electoral college

The spring after Trump won, I was checking out 928 or whatever it was called. The website was making predictions on the basketball playoffs, based on god knows but they had predictions for all sorts of stuff. I checked before every playoff final to see which team was favored. It ended up being wrong 100% of the time.

I say the same thing Nate would: that you're full of shit & distorting what he said. Polls 10 weeks ahead of an election are largely pointless, and the presidential race is a dead heat. Then, of course, there's the small matter of the polls being wildly off in BOTH of the last two presidential elections.

^ The polls were not off in the 2020 election.

A black woman is never becoming POTUS. Get real. 🤣

I’m Indian!!!!

Nate aged like heavy cream. He looks like Dick Cheney after a night of hard drinking.

Any polling model that relies on previous trends is going to be ineffective in this campaign. After a long partisan primary season you would expect a convention to generate new interest - but a sitting president withdrawing from an election campaign generates ample interest on its own. People were tuned in from the moment Biden dropped out. So no convention bump is understandable.

That being said, Trump could still win. Incumbent governments (left or right) often get kicked out when cost of living pressures are high. While Trump is full of shit and makes no sense in his speeches, his advertisements are still pushing the cost of living situation hard and they could easily be effective.

[quote]his advertisements are still pushing the cost of living situation hard and they could easily be effective.

You have to admit, this one, they're running now, is pretty clever:

Look. We already know the Rethuglicans are going to play games trying to fuck with certification. So go to an interactive electoral college map, and dope out several different scenarios where we win without states like Georgia. If we hang on to securely Blue states, and our Blue Wall holds, Wisconsin, Michigan,m Illinois Minnesota, and PA we're fine. We can even manage without PA as long as we get Michigan. Or without Michigan if we have PA. We'll get Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, NEw Mexico. Washington Oregon. NC and Georgia will be icing on the cake. But the point is we can get to at least 274, and if the Trump assholes want to fuck with certification in their states let them. We've got this.

Make your own election map here.

None of us have seen this « make your own election map » before. Thank you so much, brave pioneer!

Vice President Harris will have a lot going wrong for her to lose. The keys to the White House are turning in her favor.

You know, maybe Defacto here DOES have a point. Maybe we should be worried.

If you’re worried, the best thing to do is donate to Knock for Democracy, a grass roots get-out-the-vote org that focuses on battleground states. They do great work. If you donate, you help them do it.

Why not donate in the name of “Defacto from the datalounge” in his honor? I mean, he IS telling us to be worried….

Crooked electorates - god help us all

r30 "Vice President Harris will have a lot going wrong for her to lose"

Try again in English

R33, Try being normal, cunt. It's Datalounge on a Friday evening, relax. Or better yet, get laid, fag.

r34 Oh sweetie, you tried. I hope tomorrow is better for you! I really do!

I still do not get how half the country can be voting for Trump. Were they in a coma in 2016-2020?

Would our "Defacto" obsessed troll please knock it off.

No one , but no one, is interested.

I only trying to be constructive here, r34, but I really think you should kill yourself.

Apparently Nate Silver knows that he will be out some money if he defies Elon Musk.

Lowering the cost of Healthcare is a huge win for her and so is the fact that the GOP wants to get rid of Social Security and Medicare. And get more mileage out of the Project 2025 proposals. As TIm Walz said, YOU don't make a game plan if you don't intend to use it.

R35, put all the exclamation points on your post as you want, you repressed old slut. You have a lot of hate towards me R34. Maybe that's where your dad left you. Just dropped you off to struggle with your mom.

r41 Oh you poor thing. It's hard to be so lonely and dejected. But, chins up - every once in a while fat people find love. I'm sure you can, too. Good luck. Tomorrow is sure to be a better day. Tonight was humiliating for you, but that's okay.

R42, Baby, I'm not fat. Maybe you're projecting fat and dejected from your own experience. How's your fat mother doing?? Fatty

538's model has Harris winning 57 times out of 100

r43 Aww, be well. You have any plans this weekend to socialize? We all hope you're ok - we really do - just get out, be bold, say hello - you'll find a friend at some point. You're humiliated right now, but this will pass. You've just had an embarrassing evening. This will pass!

It ain't over til Chrissy Metz sings.

Guys, some of you are not going to make it to November if you keep letting these trolls work you up with clickbaity headlines.

If you want a chuckle, ignoredar r37 who’s “so sick of this Defacto stuff” and check out his posting stuff.

He says things like

[Quote] OP, Nate Silver's predictions are only valid when they indicate Kamala has the advantage.

He also is screaming about “crime ridden New York” despite the fact that crime in nyc is down.

r48 ok

Did all you read R48's post?

That's how stupid he is.

^ Should read: That's how stupid R48 is.

Something is happening and something that will happen when November comes, and that is who is going to put more money in our pocket? Trump gets it. I hate for everything he stands for, but my god! How many Venezuelans came in and now they have working VISAS? The Latinos are mad. How come they get a free pass?

Stop r50, you’re going to make me cry!

How funny would it be if contributions to knock for democracy in the name of Defacto actually helped turn a purple state blue? 😂

Let’s do it!

r52 Just curious - what are you on tonight - just liquor? or some fun drugs? Make a note to yourself to read your post tomorrow. Even you will think - wtf was I writing?

R54, just don't come crying to me when Kamala loses in November. The economy is whack rn. Bread is up 50%, eggs are $2.45, ground beef is 7 bucks. This is insane.

Girls, girls, you both sound obese.

R54, turtleneck = mafuckin

Or actually he’s pretending to be Latino in that one. What’s the Latino version of mafuckin?

r55 "just don't come crying to me"

Oh, damn - I was definitely going to come crying directly to you. Bummer.

Your comment: "Something is happening and something that will happen when November comes".

Oh ok.

Bread is up 50% from what? Eggs should cost how much? In a perfect world?

In my day, a nickel would get you a ticket to the movies, a limo to a fro, and a whore to peg your dad. And then guess what happened? Eisenhower, that’s what.

He says he expects her numbers to go up soon. I don't know how much stock I would put in his model. It's seemingly based on vibes.

I'm not pretending to be anything. I remember Hillary 2016. We, thought we could beat Trump's carnival show just because of decency, but he has shown that he's not that.

As much as I revel in - & post - great (& not so great) polls, it is a major concern that Kamala’s poll numbers are lagging those of Hillary & Joe at this time in their campaigns. I did hear one pollster today say that polls are far more reliable the closer the election is.

Hillary's polls were done by different methods. They are not comparable.

Joe’s, too?

I love Kamala, but something is going wrong. I love my Hilary too, and I knew something was wrong then, too. When I visit my brother in Michigan the amount of Trump signs always surprises me.

Oh, no! The dreaded signs!!

R67, haha, I was just going to say that. NOT THE LAWN SIGNS!

The pollster also said that, due to the particular demographics, polling is more accurate in certain states. The Sun Belt states, for example, produce more accurate polling than do the Blue Wall states.

[Quote] When I visit my brother in Michigan the amount of Trump signs always surprises me.

Yeah, he’s not even trying to hide who he is. I guess because he just got busted and he knows it.

All the time and effort he puts into trolling the DL. He must sit at work all day doing nothing but getting paid anyway. And he complains about socialism, lol. He’s the poster boy for it!

R36 it's a combination of stuff. Like first of all the media has normalized him. They express no outrage. We saw how the pounded on Biden and bullied him. But they would never do that t o Trump. Cognitive Decline? The fucker is insane. Second it's the whole taxes and regulation t hing. If abortion doesn't affect them they ignore it and worry about paying taxes or being forced to do things a certain way because of regulations. They are too stupid to see that Climate Change and our deteriorating environment are impacting where people live, how much people pay for insurance, and food and transportation, utilities,etc. Then there's the "cultural" bullshit. The fear of crime is greater than actually experiencing crime. But you tell people immigrants are coming to rape them and the shit themselves. Fear is powerful. And you have a lot of people who trust the wrong information. And of course the actual racist trumpers.

One more thing. The Republican elected officials in every state, people like Nikki Haley and others all go on the bandwagon. They are all supporting Trump. That gives the voters a permission structure. They lull themselves into believing everything will be OK. And we musn't forget the Evangelicals.

They think the world won't blow up because it didn't last time Trump was president. They don't know how close it came. And they don't connect the Supreme Court with their own lives. They think government is in some sense irrelevant. They remembered it wasn't in 2020 because of COVID. But they've had it too good for too long and until someone kicks them in the nuts personally, they are free to pretend it's all a game. The stupidity of the voters is like nothing seen in the world today. There isn't one American in ten today who deserves ANY freedoms.

It’s not comparable to compare Biden and Hillary to Kamala. They had longer campaigns and both barely lost or won. Kamala is consistently trending up. Come Election Day she will kick the ass out of Trump.

R74 I think you're right. Maybe the shorter season is a real gift to her. It doesn't allow much time for big fuck ups. People need to go back and listen to Michelle Obama's speech from the convention. She talked about how they will lie about you, and smear you and you will make some mistakes, but so what!

You know the trick in these interviews is to not ramble and talk too much. You say something and they repeat it in different words, and the say it again until the interviewer nows to move on.

trolling trolling trolling

R75 Michelle also said that Weinstein is a wonderful human being in days he was Obama's donor. Wouldn't believe everything she says.

Silverfish is a great name for a lesbian dating site for older women, btw.

r66 Seriously, seek help. "I love Kamala, but something is going wrong. "

Good grief

To a gay man, maybe, r79.

Opposite of Silver Fox and no nasty slang? Silver Vixen.

Still no policy listed on her web site. Her team is completely incompetent.

Stinky, sweaty, sociopathic thief, liar, cheater bleach blond orange makeup 78-yr. old obese piece of shit loser.

Sometimes I fantasize what a second term of Trump would be. I see a derelict President golfing after turning over the reigns to underlings, family members and Project 2025. The economy tanking and the Deplorables getting downsized/laid off, bankruptcies, foreclosures, food pantry lines a mile long. Trump will just say he 'inherited a mess' and they'll all blame Biden.

R4 His hole must be sore from Thiel's cock.

"use only as directed"😆

The loons who say that Trump will put more money in our pockets must he a lot richer than me! When you earn around the median wage (as I do) a president cannot put “more money in your pocket”. Tax cuts never trickle down to a single median earner in any meaningful way. Stronger labor laws, good public education, cheaper health care, tax credits (though single, childless people rarely benefit I fully support the credit for a newborn child), better infrastructure, affordable higher education, better unemployment benefits etc are ways that the government can impact my life for the better. I don’t earn enough or pay enough taxes for any conservative to suddenly enrich me overnight when they come to power.

[quote] Like first of all the media has normalized him. They express no outrage.

In defense of the national media, Trump is such a constant shitshow, evoking outrage on a daily basis, that any other presidential candidate in history would warrant constant front page coverage for his regular transgressions. But his offenses have become part of the landscape, almost like smaller mass shootings that maybe just get covered in passing now.

I keep telling myself that this isn’t 2016, when Hillary was expected to win. For one the enthusiasm wasn’t there for her, and a lot of people, Dems included, just didn’t like her. It wasn’t clear to people what a Trump presidency would look like and he was much more restrained from his childish insults, and more coherent in his messaging. By 2020 in the aftermath of his presidency, which was much worse than a lot of people anticipated, millions of voters hated him wanted him gone. Today those people still hate him and do not want a repeat. Reproductive and civil rights have been successfully attacked by Republicans in the last couple of years and at least some of us are awake to Project 2025 and the horrors it will bring. Their message is one of darkness. Unlikable extremist JD Vance was a terrible choice for VP.

But, the last 8 years also brought an awareness to me of just how many horrid, delusional and stupid people exist in this country. So that it’s a tossup is deeply depressing and I’m not sure how I’d cope with Trump 2.0, which will be brutal and change this country forever into a right wing hellscape.

R88, and he instigated and planned an insurrection, and has been convicted of 34 felonies, and Rape, since 2016. So this is a different although it isn't reflected in the network news shows who live in their own bubble.

Maybe Nate Silver can tell us where to find best burritos in San Francisco. I'm less interested in his political predictions.

R90 He's too busy taking care of Thiel's burrito.

Nate fucking Silver might want to take a stroll through the marina where I have my boat in Michigan. In 2020, every other boat had a Trump flag and they were having their stupid boat parades every weekend. Earlier this summer, there were only 2 Trump flags. Today, I noticed that those boats had removed their flags.

When you lose Michigan’s right wing boaters, you’ve lost the election. He’s going to be slaughtered and Silver will be wrong…again.

Trump's hometown newspaper

"Trump won the poll 68.9% to just 31.1% for Harris, with a total of 804,173 votes when the poll ended."

[quote]Still no policy listed on her web site. Her team is completely incompetent.

There is not a single voter in America who is going to go to the Harris website and study policy proposals before casting their vote. Are you high on drugs? Have you ever met anyone who decided this way? Everyone knows what Democrats and Kamala Harris are looking to accomplish.

You do recall Hillary had her full platform of detailed policy proposals posted on her site the first day after her announcement! Did anyone read them? The average voter is not a big reader and isn't looking for a policy proposal other than bringing back Roe and not being a criminal fascist! There. There's Kamala's policy platform!

R95 is an idiot who doesn’t understand how politics works. Kamala is incompetent.

Kamala has been successfully labeled a flip flopper with no policy by Republicans. Having her policy laid out in black and white would help shut Republicans up.

[quote]Having her policy laid out in black and white would help shut Republicans up.

She could post the most detailed, rigorous policy analysis in the history of presidential elections and it would do nothing to shut the Republicans up.

To her credit, Harris is doing incredibly well in making the main criticisms against her resolvable. Drama over no interviews was overcome with an interview. Drama over her lack of policies on her website will be overcome by someone updating her website. As long as the focus is on easily fixable issues, she's minimizing harsher attacks.

Most voters don't examine programs, but not having them on your website give imppression of laziness and lack of content.

The only way Trump can win is with Putin's help. People are tired of the greasy orange grandpa. Maybe this time they'll get him for Russian collusion.

Ah, the bubbles we live in. Anyone who thinks that, absent some form of collusion, Harris cannot lose may be in as much of a bubble as the Trump rallygoer who was quoted in a recent report I read as saying that Trump would win 80-20 if there was no Democratic cheating.

Harris can only lose if the Russians fix the election.

[quote]Harris cannot lose may be in as much of a bubble as the Trump rallygoer who was quoted in a recent report I read as saying that Trump would win 80-20 if there was no Democratic cheating.

That's insane if you think about it.

I have great swaths of posters in this thread blocked. The trolls haven't been this out of control since the BLM summer of 2020 and the failed coup attempt of January 2021.

[quote] Harris cannot lose may be in as much of a bubble as the Trump rallygoer who was quoted in a recent report I read as saying that Trump would win 80-20 if there was no Democratic cheating.

[quote] That's insane if you think about it.

The danger of being in a bubble is why I try to seek out as many credible views as I can.

R89, was Trump convicted of rape? I thought it was a civil suit about sexual assault. I think if he was convicted of rape that would be big news. I can’t keep all his cases straight. Also the 34 felonies are not 34 different crimes. Just the same act done 34 times. I’m not a Trumper but going overboard on Trump just makes people tune out. He’s a huge POS. No need to exaggerate.

I think Trump will lose but Harris is not a great candidate. Hopefully her pluses will outweigh the negatives.

Comes down to the electoral college.

^ Or the "Electrical" College, as some dimwitted local sports talk show host would regularly say.

Putin's agenda has not changed except to take on more urgency. It's very simple. Weaken the United States so he can gain more control over both Europe and the Middle East. That's it. And every single thing that weakens us internally and externally helps him get closer to achieving his goal. When the Republicans blocked aid to Ukraine, who benefited? Who benefits from derailing peace talks in Israel? Putin doesn't give a fuck if Netanyahu commits genocide. At a certain point Israel will be weak enough from internal turbulence to be vulnerable to extinction. And the U.S. will have to pore blood as well as treasure into a war pitting Israel against Iran/Lebanon/Syria, and Putin's other clients and warlords. And do not think for a moment that Afghanistan will stay quiet. He owns them now.

[quote]Kamala has been successfully labeled a flip flopper with no policy by Republicans. Having her policy laid out in black and white would help shut Republicans up.

Oh honey, no, just no. That's not how this works at all.

[quote]Having her policy laid out in black and white would help shut Republicans up.

Are you new on earth?

Thanks R110. No matter what she says it will be ripped apart. The media is laying out a minefield hoping she will step in it. They don't care about her policies. And honestly until they start covering Trump as nasty as they cover her, fuck them.

R1 whew. I hadn’t clicked the article yet but you stating that gives me a huge sigh of relief.

Is OP the defacto troll or a legit person salty that Biden stepped down.

[quote]I thought it was a civil suit about sexual assault

It was a defamation suit that relied on the jury deciding whether or not a rape and/or a sexual assault occurred. They found she was sexually assaulted but not rape, and here's why: New York makes this distinction. For a rape to have occurred, there needs to be penile penetration. Otherwise, it's sexual assault.

E Jean couldn't tell if he just fingerbanged her or stuck his tiny cock in there. Hence, he was not found to have raped her. The judge said she was effectively raped, just not by the legal definition.

And Trump has confessed to be a serial paraphilic digital rapist. He never shuts up about shoving his fingers inside of women who he says let him do it because he is a star.

He is one disassociated from reality sexual predator.

[quote]... was Trump convicted of rape? I thought it was a civil suit about sexual assault.

Wow.

Yes, in NY state, if penile penetration cannot be proven the crime is called sexual assault. In every other state the same charge is called RAPE!

You sound like a rapist too.

[quote]In every other state the same charge is called RAPE!

Not true.

Trump was not charged with rape or sexual assault. He was found liable in civil court for sexual assault or in many other states would be considered rape.

WHY are we so intent on splitting hairs?

Trump is a RAPIST!

R120 Because maybe if this cunt was actually convicted of rape his stankin ass wouldn’t still be polling in the high 40s.

R106 is full of shit. Harris is leading Trump in both national and battleground polling. She is raising a ton of money and has energized voters of all ages. Go fuck yourself if you don’t think she is a good candidate.

R94, I like Mark Cuban, but who are his followers?

Old Jocks and Never-Were Jocks. Men who think Trump is an admirable rich stud---Marla! Melania! Stormy!---instead of the aged criminal psychopath who declared bankruptcies and sexually assaulted women that he is. Plus, not to be regarded lightly, a man who became President.

So yes, given those two choices, and thinking "But my kid will be the rich and successful GOOD Trump!", the Macho Daddies picked Mr. Tangerine Man. Why would they choose Kamala or any other female, true character or no?

R123 - Mark Cuban's post are almost immediately set upon by bots.

Has PollTroll surfaced lately?

Well how about that. Silver’s data sources are full of shit.

Sounds like shoot the messenger talk to me. As someone who devours this stuff, I’m hearing & reading more & more that Pennsylvania now appears to be a real reach for the Harris campaign. While Harris can still win without Pennsylvania, the race becomes a real uphill battle for her if the state’s nineteen electoral votes are off the table.

R126, once Silver started posting on Substack about being a compulsive gambler things would head in this direction. No matter how smart a gambler thinks he is, he's never smart enough; he always needs more money to keep himself going. So he was going to become a shill, it was only a matter of time.

Presidential race is still way too close to predict. Harris remains the underdog, hard as that may be to believe. Montana and Ohio senate seats probably lean R at this current moment in time, but again, who knows how that might ebb and flow over the next month and a half. It’s good to be optimistic, but it’s more important to be clear-eyed that control of the White House and the senate is in complete toss-up territory at this point. I feel pretty helpless; I’m donating what I can here and there, but we are ultimately at the mercy of a very small number of persuadable voters in PA, GA, AZ (even Michigan, Wisconsin) with respects to the presidential. I don’t really think Nate Silver has a heavy thumb in the scale, and he isn’t shy to concede that we’re in an unwieldy horse race. I also don’t think he has any influence whatsoever over how people are going to vote.

"Expert: 2024 betting odds more accurate than polling"

"The data shows if you wanted a single best predictor," says Rutgers Professor Harry Crane, "one source of information to know what's going on in the elections - it's the prediction markets."

This clip is from over the summer when Biden was still in the game, but if what he's saying is true, Trump has the lead.

A black woman from California was always going to be a stretch for the presidency.

Not over fat Donald. He’s dead meat.

Bullshit r131.

Listen if you’re giving money to the party great. If you can get money sent directly to our candidates in swing states, Jon Tester in Montana needs a SURGE of money, volunteers, and more. We CANNOT lose Tester right now. We just cannot afford to lose that seat or we are fucked. So please, again, Tester needs money and phone bankers and postcard writers. Give what you can. Give directly to him so it gets most strategically and just for his race only.

That Bobby Casey, who's easily dispatched his opponents in his each of his three Senate campaigns, is facing such a close reelection battle, tells us all we need to now know about how difficult the Pennsylvania terrain is for Harris. And why Nate Silver is not off in his current assessment of the race.

This was a spontaneous visit to a strip mall store, Penzey's in the Pittsburgh area. Anecdotal, of course, but I haven't seen white people act like this since 2008.

The Democratic ticket candidates are being well received.

R135 Oh please. Penzeys is as friendly an environment as you can possibly get. A spontaneous visit? I doubt it.

This is on their website:

R135 Oh please. Penzeys is as friendly an environment as you can possibly get. A spontaneous visit? I doubt it.

This is on their website:

Trump needs to campaign more in Pennsylvania, that will help Harris. I think Wisconsin and Michigan are out of his reach. He still has two or three key states to alienate.

(sorry for the double post!)

Fuck Nate Silver. He needs another job that he's better at.

[quote] Trump needs to campaign more in Pennsylvania, that will help Harris. I think Wisconsin and Michigan are out of his reach. He still has two or three key states to alienate.

The most recent poll of Michigan has Trump up 1.2% (44.7-43.5) among likely voters, with RFK, Jr., getting 4.7%. When looking at the 91% of voters assessed to be definite voters, Harris holds a 1.6% (45.7-44.1) lead over Trump, with RFK, Jr., at 3.9%.

[quote] Trump needs to campaign more in Pennsylvania, that will help Harris.

No it won’t. Pennsyltucky is Trump Country.

No, just like Florida and Georgia, campaigning may not pay off now, western Pennsylvania and OHIO will pay off in the future.

It is remarkably depressing that an ignorant, racist, trustafarian moron like Trump is even competitive in this race!

Trump couldn't find Europe on a map of Europe, is a lifelong reprobate, criminal and sexually assaults women. Roe v. Wade is gone and millions of women are still voting for Trump?! The fact that every woman under 40 isn't crawling over broken glass to support Kamala Harris and every Democrat is preposterous. Look, if Trump wins, I am not listening to even one woman or working class person whine about what misery befalls them. Elections have consequences and if you are ok getting crushed by GOP government and capitalism go for it. This election shouldn't even be close!

It's worse than that, R144. This monstrous clown is likely to win.

R131 But not a lying, philandering, rapist, thrice bankruptcy filing New Yowkahhh.

#Complexion for the protect. Let her not win. There will be blood and I’m starting with Uncle Tom black men.

R135 Elizabeth Warren need to come get her menopausal cousin.

I don’t care. I’m making jokes. I fucks with Kamala all day.

Right now Trump is flooding YOu Tube and all the TV networks with ads talking about Kamala fucking up the economy. And people are buying it. Also devastating ad about her on immigration. They are killing her and it is all lies and distortions. Problem is people see it and believe it. The race should not be that close. But if you can donate so our ads are aired more frequently it would sure help.

I've always said there is some kind of conspiracy on Madison Ave to give republicans better ads. I don't know who is behind it, but it is definitely there.

Texas would be deep blue without the fraudulent meddling of Paxton

It's an existential threat for Paxton because if Trump loses, Paxton goes to federal prison. So he'll do literally anything to steal the election.

R242, You are neither clever nor correct. Pennsylvania went for Biden, Shapiro, and Freeman.

Try harder.

Sorry. That was to r142.

Oh, for Pete's sake. "Freeman" should read "Fetterman" in r152 (although Robert Freeman is an excellent Democratic PA State Senator from my county).

Nate Silver actively campaigning for Trump.

R155 How exactly is a political analyst of the opinion that Kamala "missed a major chance to pick up voters in the center when she passed over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro", campaigning for Trump?

Nonsense, R155. Many good Democrats think Harris made a mistake by not picking Shapiro in an effort to nail down Pennsylvania. And just yesterday, Silver decried the efficacy of the Trump-favorable NYT/Siena College poll. You can somehow find issue with a journalist not being firmly in the Harris camp, but that they are not does not make them Trump partisans.

Because he is showing his bias against Harris. It’s pretty clear he and his boss Thiel want Trump to win.

Bias

[quote]Because he is showing his bias against Harris.

That Shapiro would have been a better pick to garner more votes in such a crucial state is a perfectly reasonable opinion.

But it’s not just that. He goes on to criticize her for other things.

R161 What?? Criticizing Kamala Harris? How dare anyone do that!

Yet he criticized the NYT/Siena College Poll the Trump campaign was so "giddy" about. Time for Thiel to take him to the woodshed.

R157, what if we told you that what you’re debating is a both/and? Silver decried the Siena Poll AND is a bought-whore for Peter Theil. Ergo, Silver is a fucking Traitor, HELLO. As are Peter and the NYT.

We have Traitors amongst us. Read that again — we have REAL Traitors amongst us. They have sold us out to Russia, for fucking MONEY. Money!!!! That’s it!!! Your freedom has been bought and sold, you’ve been raped, for some fucking MONEY. They will destroy our country and democracy for MONEY. To our sworn enemies who want us dead, Russia. Imagine how much Rethug members of CONGRESS are getting paid by Russia if they’re giving $100K per week to lowly Gen Z influencers?!??? Imagine how much they’re all getting paid?!? It’s tens of MILLIONS, maybe hundreds of millions if you add it all up, all from Russia, and maybe a little from China and Iran, but Russia is by far our biggest problem at the moment. We have mother fucking Traitors in Congress, social media, and the billionaire/Corporate class. They ought to Google what America does to fucking Traitors, because we still do it!!!!!!

“Down with the Traitors, up with the Stars. Shouting the battery of Freedom.”

So I don’t know what you’re smoking r157. Wake the fuck up.

If she had picked Shapiro, American Jews and Gaza would have killed her campaign.

She dodged a bullet in picking Walz.

[quote] Ergo, Silver is a fucking Traitor, HELLO. punishable by death

You want Nate Silver to go the way of the Rosenbergs?! WOW. If you've had occasion to see him interviewed of late, Nate Silver is clearly a Harris supporter. But, yet, death is the price you would visit on him for not being someone like Simon Rosenberg, eager to blow smoke up the ass of us Harris partisans.

[quote]We have Traitors amongst us. Read that again — we have REAL Traitors amongst us.

In other words: "Are you now, or have you ever been?"

R164 is right out of the McCarthey era.

I'll tell you what her policy is, the annoying gnat troll: the opposite of Project 2025. Happy now?

Can Nate tell me where to get the best lobster roll at Bar Harbor?

I can’t take Nate seriously. He works for Peter Thiel, online betting and the crypto industry.

[quote]and maybe a little from China

"A former aide to two New York governors was charged Tuesday with acting as an illegal agent of the Chinese government who used her state positions to subtly advance Beijing’s agenda in exchange for financial benefits worth millions of dollars."

"Linda Sun, who held numerous posts in New York state government, including deputy chief of staff for Gov. Kathy Hochul and deputy diversity officer for former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, was arrested Tuesday morning along with her husband, Chris Hu, at their $4 million home on Long Island."

NY Governors EMPLOY them. Funny how that story got so little traction. And you know it's just the tip of the iceberg.

(and we're worried about Tim Pool ...)

I want every single person who is getting rich from LYING to the American people to do at a minimum HARD TIME.

I work in and around a jail, so incarcerated people are my people. I watched multiple people who didn’t have $500 for bail rot for a year in a county jail while their kids were taken away too. But these fuckers can just LIE with impunity, to the point of actually tearing our country apart, and they get zero punishment because they’re fucking RICH WHITE MEN??? They have destroyed this country for fucking MONEY, they are killing America so they can make a BUCK. This while poor black men are oppressed by our criminal justice system for fucking petty crimes!!!! You should be outraged by this!

I want anyone who has betrayed this country to have the book thrown at them — I am not for the death penalty, but as of now, we still practice it. So fuck yeah, if their charge met the standards for a death penalty, I would welcome it being given symbolically, and then commute it to a life imprisonment. These people are traitors who have abused the People beyond what words can express. Trust in leaders and institutions and media is obliterated because of their lies. The People deserve true and fair justice for the harm brought upon this country by these liars and hooligans who have people too terrified to press charges when they get fucking assaulted.

What happened to Nate Silver?

Allegedly, he's a gambling addict who accrued huge gambling debt and got bailed out through Thiel's Polymarket venture, which serves as a tool to prop up Trump's fundraising because it shows a distorted picture of the race. Also feeds into Silver's new model, which is currently the only one favouring Trump, along with the conservative RCP.

In short, he's a mess and will probably be mocked and (hopefully) ignored after this election.

[quote]Allegedly, he's a gambling addict who accrued huge gambling debt and got bailed out through Thiel's Polymarket venture, which serves as a tool to prop up Trump's fundraising because it shows a distorted picture of the race.

Bullshit.

Nate Silver on Twitter 3 hours ago:

"She's now a 2:1 favorite to win the popular vote, but the Electoral College is a toss-up."

That's not a distorted picture of the race.

...................................

Re: Peter Thiel's Polymarket:

Presidential Election Winner 2024

Harris: 50%

Trump: 48%

Popular Vote Winner 2024

Harris: 76%

Trump: 23%

[quote]Also feeds into Silver's new model, which is currently the only one favouring Trump, along with the conservative RCP.

Again: you don't know what you're talking about.

RCP Poll Average:

Harris: 49.3

Trump: 47.3

RCP Betting Odds:

Harris: 51.7

Trump: 46.9

Winning the popular vote is a given, but in order to win the EC, Harris needs to creep up to 55%.

And creep she will. The pollsters future depends on it.

R177, Harris may need to win the popular vote by as much as 3% to also win the Electoral College, but she won’t need a 10% margin of victory.