Can we have a thread dedicated to election polls? Part II

This is the OP thread continuation and has precedence over the idiot bitches who started a different continuation.

I am the OP of this thread, but not the OP of the original thread. It was started Aug. 9th. The odds of that OP being around today to solve the problem are low, so I did this because somebody on the OP asked an because getting erections over a bunch of fictional rules made up by one mentally ill shut in is both inefficient and pandering to someone who should be spending time in therapy, not here.

Sorry to break the news to you, Greg.

Also, R 1, I have you on block now so don't even bother to reply with your manageress nonsense. You're so sad.

[quote]It was started Aug. 9th. The odds of that OP being around today to solve the problem are low

You're quite right, it's highly probable the OP of that thread has perished by now.

Post poll information please.

I am OP of the 1st thread, started the Poll Hole 2nd thread.

I, for one, would like to know what the hell is going on over at Polymarket. Is it being flooded by Crypto Trumpers?

R1 this isn't the thread continuation by OP. This is someone who jacked the original OPs thread.

PICK ONE

THIS is the new thread started by original OP. Use this one.

What's "Polymarket", precious? What's "Polymarket"?

Polymarket is BS. It's a crypto betting site. Anyone can go there and just keep clicking on the like buttons placing bets without registering, being a voter or even being a US citizen. It's not a random survey. It's a betting sight not a voting sight. For example, they have Trump winning 50 to 49% over Kamala. But they also have Kamala winning popular vote 73 to 25%.

That just would never happen. No one would get 70% of the popular vote and not the electoral college. Not with numbers that high. The Trump winning is mostly wishful thinking.

Trump pollster predicts post-convention poll bump and extended "honeymoon" for Harris

ormer President Donald Trump’s campaign is bracing for more unfavorable polling news in the days to come.

A memo from Trump pollsters Tony Fabrizio and Travis Tunis sent out by the Trump campaign Saturday predicts a convention bump in polls after the Democratic National Convention for Vice President Kamala Harris.

“Post-DNC we will likely see another small (albeit temporary) bounce for Harris in the public polls. Post-Convention bounces are a phenomenon that happens after most party conventions,” the memo says. “So don’t be surprised to see Harris get a temporary 2 to 3 point bump,” it added.

In July, Fabrizio wrote he expected a “honeymoon” period for Harris after she replaced President Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket – a prediction that has certainly come to pass. Before ending his re-election campaign, Biden’s support in CNN Poll of Polls registered at 45%, behind Trump at 49%. Heading into the convention, the race had shifted, with Harris at 50% and Trump at 48%, the CNN Poll of Polls found.

Fabrizio now anticipates the honeymoon for Harris extending, blaming it largely on favorable media coverage of the vice president.

The memo went on to caution against reading too much into national polls that may show Harris pulling ahead.

“The other thing to keep in mind is that while the media is going to focus on the national polls, we need to keep our eye on the ball – that is the polling in our target states,” it said. “Our goal is to get to 270 (Electoral College votes) and winning these states is how we do it.”

Thank you, R12.

That's like, oddly, any Twitter poll has Trump with a massive lead. I know it's entirely unscientific but I thought Twitter was equally split between the lefty loony tunes and the Maggot loony tunes. Apparently not. It's crazy white wing.

R15 Even in the last week or so the exit from Twitter is huge. There will always be media-elite leftists in Twitter... but many, many centrist and progressive "regular people" have had it and left.... some to Threads, some to other platforms.

Twitter will remain "important" for this election, but it's downward spiral is inevitable. It'll be MySpace by 2025.

I had no idea Kari Lake was running for the senate in AZ. These fuckers never go away.

Any good sites to check on senate races?

Does she have "a" MySpace?

Last night CNN started coverage of JFK and Pumpkin when Lake was at the podium. But they only ran the shot, they wouldn't run the audio.

Is Polymarket poly-amorous?

[quote] In 2024, the outcome of U.S. elections became the most active market on the platform,[6] with over $508 million (as of August 6, 2024) wagered on the presidential race between the Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Nate Silver, founder of polling analysis firm FiveThirtyEight, became an advisor to Polymarket in 2024.

[quote] Peter Thiel Invests In Polymarket Political Betting Platform—But The Future Of Gambling On Elections Remains Unclear

[quote] Trump narrowly leading Harris in Texas: Poll

Kamala won’t win. The very least she’s doing is helping Democrats in Congress.

r24, is that from a poll?

[quote] I, for one, would like to know what the hell is going on over at Polymarket. Is it being flooded by Crypto Trumpers?

People look at the info that’s out there and make predictions, like the pundits do, but unlike the pundits, they’re willing to put money on it.

Yeah, r25, his own.

Looks like no effect on the race.

Polling averages in swing states reported today on youtube's "Majority Report with Sam Seder": Harris up 3.4 in Wisconsin, 2.9 in Michigan, 1.9 in Pennsylvania, and 0.5 in Arizona. Even in North Carolina, and Trump leading by 1.6 in Georgia.

Worryingly, a Roanoke College poll came out today with Harris only up by 3 in VA, which is surprising because Tim Kaine is up by 11 in the same poll.

*I left out Nevada which he reported with Harris up by 0.2

Oh, well.

I guarantee that she suggested that he endorse Trump.

[quote] Election Time...Partner of @Ground_App and @Polymarket

[quote] DNC Bump?: Harris extends lead over Trump with base built on youth vote

Not a poll, but report from Cincinnati burbs.

Today, a young white man was out knocking on doors for Sherrod Brown.

He did not knock on my door, which was odd since I’m a “hardened Democrat”. So I asked him why he was knocking on known Repug doors.

He said that Sherrod’s campaign was having him knock on doors of REPUGS who voted for him in 2018. These “split ticket” voters.

I was surprised yet thrilled and we had a nice little convo about how I canvassed for Obama in 2008 and what that felt like. He was so excited to hear that because he is a huge Obama fan and majored in Politics at college because Obama inspired him.

He said he was so excited to graduate and be able to canvass for a presidential election and he is VERY excited about Kamala and Tim.

So, the canvassing for Democrats has started and the energy is high

I'm going to be posting polls in this thread since it was the first one created. I don't care that it wasn't created by the original OP, that's never mattered on DL before.

[quote]As for Harris, she will perform worse than every Democrat since Michael Dukakis in 1988.

r31 Pretty sure that guy said the same thing about Biden in 2020. It's honestly irrelevant what randos on Twitter have to say, any asshole can come up with a prediction.

Also, please please stop posting the Polymarket bullshit. It has no bearing on anything, it's not even a proper betting market. It's a bit like posting a Twitter poll.

R38, let us know when you stop living in fantasy land.

r39 I've been here for two decades now and not once during an election year have we ever posted numbers from a bullshit crypto betting market set up a year before, you MAGA cunt. Someone will be living in fantasy land come election day and it won't be me.

[quote]Today, a young white man was out knocking on doors for Sherrod Brown.

People are crazy if they knock on a stranger's door unannounced and risk being killed. I would never do that.

Minnesota today.

R42 I was at the MN state fair today and noticed that booth. They were handing out "Never Walz" fans for spinning the prize wheel, which had phrases like "burning Minneapolis" and "covid snitch line" (???). For what it's worth, I saw a single "Trump 2024" hat amongst the throngs of people out today, but dozens of people wearing Kamala-supporting apparel. The DFL booth was mobbed every time I passed by it. Also, lots of the seed art (a must-see!) was explicitly political, with references to Walz's "they're weird" comment, Walz being brat, Project 2025, etc.

[quote]R24, is that from a poll?

No, it was pulled from his ass.

Michigan (TIPP, Aug. 20-22): Harris 48%, Trump 46% / senate: Slotkin (D) 49%, Rogers (R) 39% / n=741 LV / MOE=3.7%

Conservative pollster.

This graph says it all, doesn't it? I admit I was wrong when it comes to Biden withdrawing.

I love it, R46!

Did this thread die?

No. No it didn’t.

Were the no new polls today?

I am really curious about the Florida and Missouri Senate polling-anything new on either one?

[quote] A new poll reveals Kamala Harris’s clear path to victory over Donald Trump.

[quote] Vice President Kamala Harris hasn’t just caught up to Donald Trump—she’s actually taking some small leads.

[quote] According to an NPR analysis of FiveThirtyEight aggregated polling data published Monday, the Democratic presidential nominee has increased her advantage in battleground states. Several states that were previously reported to vote “likely Republican” in the upcoming election—including Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona—are now all considered toss-ups. Other states that were assured to vote Republican, such as Florida, now seem slightly less enthused by the Republican ticket.

New Republic is not a real source.

New Republic is not a real source r53? It’s one of the most storied, respected political magazines ever. You HAVE to be a troll not to know this—or deny it.

And this bit of context.

R53 MAGA trolls, please, hear my plea. Step up your game... you want Project 2025? You think Harris is too far left? Argue your points. But the usual bullshit trolling isn't interesting anymore. Most of America is moving on, and you are invited to come along....

[quote] Were the no new polls today?

Curtis leads Gleich by 34% in Utah, but there’s nothing interesting about that.

Also, Trump now has 3% lead in Arizona, but that’s not unexpected.

Hogan is tied with Alsobrooks for Maryland Senate at 46% each. That could be the race that gives the GOP the majority.

[quote] New Republic is not a real source [R53]? It’s one of the most storied, respected political magazines ever.

It’s a Left-wing publication. It’s biased. It’s like quoting Reason. New Republic respected? Are you on crack? Their editor worked as a spy for the KGB!

Controversies

Michael Straight

New Republic editor Michael Whitney Straight (1948 to 1956) was later discovered to be a spy for the KGB, recruited into the same network as Donald Maclean, Guy Burgess, Kim Philby, and Anthony Blunt.[50] Straight's espionage activities began at Cambridge during the 1930s; he later claimed that they ceased during World War II. Later, shortly before serving in the Kennedy administration, he revealed his past ties and turned in fellow spy Anthony Blunt. In return for his cooperation, his own involvement was kept secret and he continued to serve in various capacities for the US Government until he retired. Straight admitted his involvement in his memoirs; however, subsequent documents obtained from the former KGB after the fall of the Soviet Union indicated that he drastically understated the extent of his espionage activities.[51][52]

Ruth Shalit plagiarism

In 1995, writer Ruth Shalit was fired for repeated incidents of plagiarism and an excess of factual errors in her articles.[53]

Stephen Glass scandal

In 1998, features writer Stephen Glass was revealed in a Forbes Digital investigation to have fabricated a story called "Hack Heaven". A TNR investigation found that most of Glass's stories had used or been based on fabricated information. The story of Glass's fall and TNR editor Chuck Lane's handling of the scandal was dramatized in the 2003 film Shattered Glass, based on a 1998 article in Vanity Fair.[54]

Lee Siegel

In 2006, long-time contributor, critic, and senior editor Lee Siegel, who had maintained a blog on the TNR site dedicated primarily to art and culture, was revealed by an investigation to have collaborated in posting comments to his own blog under an alias aggressively praising Siegel, attacking his critics and claiming not to be Lee Siegel when challenged by an anonymous detractor on his blog.[55][56] The blog was removed from the website and Siegel was suspended from writing for the print magazine.[57] He resumed writing for TNR in April 2007. Siegel was also controversial for his coinage "blogofascists" which he applied to "the entire political blogosphere", though with an emphasis on leftwing or center-left bloggers such as Daily Kos and Atrios.[58]

Spencer Ackerman

In 2006, associate editor Spencer Ackerman was fired by editor Franklin Foer. Describing it as a "painful" decision, Foer attributed the firing to Ackerman's "insubordination": disparaging the magazine on his personal blog,[59] saying that he would "skullfuck" a terrorist's corpse at an editorial meeting if that was required to "establish his anti-terrorist bona fides" and sending Foer an e-mail where he said—in what according to Ackerman was intended to be a joke—he would "make a niche in your skull" with a baseball bat. Ackerman, by contrast, argued that the dismissal was due to "irreconcilable ideological differences." He believed that his leftward drift as a result of the Iraq War and the actions of the Bush administration was not appreciated by the senior editorial staff.[60] Within 24 hours of being fired by The New Republic, Ackerman was hired as a senior correspondent for a rival magazine, The American Prospect.

Scott Thomas Beauchamp controversy

Main article: Scott Thomas Beauchamp controversy In July 2007, after The New Republic published an article by an American soldier in Iraq titled "Shock Troops", allegations of inadequate fact-checking were leveled against the magazine. Critics alleged that the piece contained inconsistent details indicative of fabrication. The identity of the anonymous soldier, Scott Thomas Beauchamp, was revealed. Beauchamp was married to Elspeth Reeve, one of the magazine's three fact-checkers. As a result of the controversy, The New Republic and the United States Army launched investigations, reaching different conclusions.[61][62][63] In an article titled "The Fog of War", published on December 1, 2007, Franklin Foer wrote that the magazine could no longer stand behind the stories written by Beauchamp.[64][65]

Pete Buttigieg article

On July 12, 2019, gay writer Dale Peck wrote an article for The New Republic critical of Pete Buttigieg, a 2020 Democratic Party presidential primary candidate, in which he repeatedly referred to Buttigieg as "Mary Pete", which he described as the "gay equivalent of Uncle Tom", saying, "Pete and I are just not the same kind of gay." The article went on to describe the candidate as a "fifteen-year-old boy in a Chicago bus station wondering if it's a good idea to go home with a fifty-year-old man so that he'll finally understand what he is."[66] The piece was harshly received by some media figures[67] and the center of controversy.[68]

Fun gay fact-Michael Straight was married to Jackie O’s stepsister/Gore Vidal’s sister, Nina Auchincloss, whose son Hugh died was an artist who died of AIDS.

Will any Texas polling for the presidential race be done?

^^^.

Florida (PPP, Aug. 21-22): Trump 51%, Harris 47% / senate: Scott 48%, Mucarsel-Powell 45% / weed: for 57%, against 34% / abortion: for 61%, against 25% / n=837 RV / MOE=3.4%

Texas (PPP, Aug. 21-22): Trump 49%, Harris 44% / senate: Cruz 47%, Allred 45% / n=725 RV / MOE=3.6%

High quality pollster, both surveys completed before Kamala's DNC speech.

R67 If the polls were taken August 21-22 as you indicate, they were taken / completed during the DNC, not before. Correct ? Or am I misreading what you posted ?

r68 Yes, that report assumes it's the candidate's convention speech that gives him/her the biggest polling boost and so should be noted if the poll was finished before or after it. Which, as seen by the enthusiasm here on DL during her speech, is kinda true.

*Or at least an additional boost, if not necessarily the biggest one.

National poll (YouGov/Economist, Aug. 25-27): Harris 47% (+2), Trump 45% / n=1367 RV / MOE=3.1%

Kennedy is helping Trump.

How about also discussing the House and Senate. Big NYT article about how NY and Cali could decide who controls the House. Dems can not win with progressive candidates in NY state anymore. They need solid moderate or even conservatives to win outside of NYC. I hope this isn’t a repeat of 2022 where NY cost Dems the House.

A Harris win won’t be as sweet if Repubs take over Congress and block her at every turn.

R72 I thought we already discussed that poly market is a betting site for incels and money launderers and their polls are junk.

It’s not, Lez. Just because you don’t like polls that don’t tell you what you want to hear doesn’t make them less valid.

If you have to have crypto to vote in the poll it doesn’t seem very representative of the electorate.

Polymarket isn't a poll at all. Their users are placing bets, not answering questions of a polling organization.

DJT should bet against himself and then flee the country.

Florida CD-14 (St. Pete Polls, Aug. 27): Whitney Fox (D) 48%, Anna Paulina Luna (R-Inc) 44%, / n=843 LV

Fox News Battleground State Polls (Aug 23-26) / n≈1,000 RV/ MOE= 1.5% all states, 3% each state

Combined: Harris +1 (50-49)

Arizona: Harris +1 (50-49)

Georgia: Harris +2 (50-48)

Nevada: Harris +2 (50-48)

North Carolina: Trump +1 (50-49)

[quote]In past Fox News surveys, Biden trailed Trump in each state: by 5 points in both Arizona and Nevada (June), by 6 in Georgia (April) and by 5 points in North Carolina (February).

[quote]The new surveys find Trump achieves his 2020 vote percentage in the head-to-head race in every state except Georgia, while Harris meets or exceeds Biden’s 2020 vote share across the states.

And we still have to enter the real post-Labor Day Campaign, r80!

Convicted felon not happy with polling from his in-house media network:

He was also ranting on Truth Social overnight that they're destroying the Democrats on social media. You know the polling is bad when his advisers have to console him with views and likes on the socials. He's forgotten how well that worked out for him in 2020 when he was bragging about his rally sizes.

Battleground states (Emerson, Aug. 25-28) / MOE=2.8% to 3.6%

Arizona 🟥 Trump 50%, Harris 47% / senate: Gallego (D) 49%, Lake (R) 42%

North Carolina 🟥 Trump 49%, Harris 48% / governor: Stein (D) 47%, Robinson (R) 41%

Wisconsin 🟥 Trump 49%, Harris 48% / senate: Baldwin (D) 49%, Hovde (R) 48%

Pennsylvania 🟨 Harris 48%, Trump 48% / senate: Casey (D) 48%, McCormick (R) 44%

Georgia 🟦 Harris 49%, Trump 48%

Nevada 🟦 Harris 49%, Trump 48% / senate: Rosen (D) 50%, Brown (R) 40%

Michigan 🟦 Harris 50%, Trump 47% / senate: Slotkin (D) 47%, Rogers (R) 41%

Everything (including both post convention bounces) is within the margins of error.

It’s a dead heat folks; but Kamala’s got our wind at her back.

We’ve got to stay united (none of this Goldilocks stuff) and push her [italic] beyond [/italic] the margin of error.

One of the rare times Marge makes sense.

..and it's great news for Democrats!

r84, Emerson is going to keep this neck and neck until Early Voting.

Pollsters are in the business of people thinking they are right.

The closer to neck and neck they call it, the greater the chance they make the correct final call.

They are businesses with vested interests.

[quote]senate: Baldwin (D) 49%, Hovde (R) 48%

Anyone else suprised/concerned by this? I had no idea Tammy's seat was threatened to this extent.

r88, Hovde is Koch Dark Money.

She needs to hit him as a rich California carpetbagger.

We did this in Nevada with Jacky Rosen and that Texan Brown.

Trump is going to win in a blowout. Mark my words.

Marking those words, r90.

R90 = JD Vance.

[quote] It’s a dead heat folks; but Kamala’s got our wind at her back.

Even if expressed as “the wind”, that’s not usually how a candidate experiencing a bump is described, but still, she’s having a moment.

Bloomberg

[quote]Last update: 12:30 p.m., Thursday, August 29: Although we wouldn’t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it’s not a big difference — this wasn’t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3.

People are freaking out over Silver's latest update. Apparently, his model punishes a convention bump or something to that effect.

And that "correction" Silver's applied to Kamala will be another nail in his coffin when she wins. He's assuming that based on old school traditional patters. Nothing has been traditional about this election season. Kamala will probably keep most of that bump until election day when Nate Silver's new employers will rethink their investment in him.

Who does he work for? ABC? ESPN? I can't keep up with him.

And I'm still angry that they got rid of Clare Malone, whoever is responsible (I hope it's not Nate). She was stunned when she was let go, poor thing.

R97 Polymarket and Peter Theil now.

A betting site pretending to be a polling site using an actual pollster to influence the thing being bet on.

Nate is a pollster, and we have seen that what pollsters actually do is sell their opinion of their calculations.

Nate is in the cycle where he wants people to pay attention and pay some cash, for his opinions.

He needs to set himself apart so that when he changes his opinion, people give him more weight.

We are in the Swimsuit competition of the polling, where pollsters are needing attention to make the big billable $$$.

Everyone focuses on their results, but few people are questioning their methods. Nate id pointing this out.

R85- Its just too fucking close..

The thought of her losing is killing me.

I am starting to block this shit out.

The fact that this babbling incoherent criminal treasonist bankrupt lunatic has this much support is probably the very thing that all of us should ponder. Who the fuck are we in a world where THIS can even exist.

I am questioning myself.

r100 That's why even with Kamala winning, there will be little reason to celebrate. That half of the country can vote for someone like Trump three times in a row is generational trauma for any democratic nation. And the fact that he got to appoint three SC justices while Biden only got one and Kamala possibly won't get any is even more infuriating.

R101- I expected more of a jump after the stellar conventions.

And every poll differs yet all of them are way too close.

It just says far more about "the human condition" than I care to admit.

And if she wins, and its close (and it will be , if she does) then here we go with the election denials and whatever fucking civil war style shit this scumrags will try.

I don't know anymore.

Polls are useless for predictions until the day after November 5. It’s so silly to me, there is no way you can predict with accuracy what will happen two months from now. The thing they’re useful for is discerning trends and responding to them. How they became so important in our public discussions and discourse is a real detriment to the voting process.

Polls aren't predicting what happens two months from now, they're capturing the mood in the now, so we can observe the current state of the race and the trends as we approach election day.

Yes, R104, but I saw someone on social media the other day say something that I feel is exactly correct:

It is entirely possible that this race will be decided by some event(s) that haven't even happened yet.

The irony is that MAGA is doing everything possible to return to the days when boring white men on both sides of the aisle were in charge and nothing could possibly change that much but...we're not going back!

[quote]It is entirely possible that this race will be decided by some event(s) that haven't even happened yet.

Yes, that's always possible. I think we're all dreading any potential October surprises for a reason, especially after what happened to Hillary.

[quote] MAGA is doing everything possible to return to the days when boring white men on both sides of the aisle were in charge

They don’t want “boring white men” in charge. That was the old GOP under George H.W. Bush, John McCain, Dick Cheney, etc. They want carnival barkers and used car salesmen demagogues who tell them what they want to hear by fueling and justifying their hatreds and insecurities. They want politicians like their preachers.

[quote]It is entirely possible that this race will be decided by some event(s) that haven't even happened yet.

Reality Game Show Host Theory.

Hillary's emails?

The Immunity Charm?

Death?

His team is trying to clean up the Arlington scandal that is softening his support among vets. And his abortion comments yesterday have pissed off some of his crazy loons.

He's never had to deal with not being adored and I suspect it might just push him to make a substantial unforced error. Fingers crossed...

Yeah, baby's triangulating like crazy. He's not used to any of this.

Vance also said something like “What the hell do you have to lose?” when speaking to firefighters. He was greeted with boos.

[quote] The Apprentice, Ali Abbasi’s hot-button film about the young Donald Trump, has been acquired by Tom Ortenberg’s Briarcliff Entertainment for a pre-election U.S. release on Oct. 11

[...]

[quote] Dan Snyder, the pro-Trump billionaire whose Kinematics company put up equity for the film against domestic rights, reportedly was displeased with the film’s depiction of Trump and sought to block its release; and the Trump campaign issued legal threats to potential distributors. In the end, THR has learned, Kinematics’ interest in the film was bought out, allowing the Briarcliff deal to move forward.

Some interesting data from the link below:

CBS News, “Data Firm Target Smart Finds Surge in Voter Registration among Key Groups compared to 2020 Election: Increase in Voter Registration:

Young Black Women up 175.8% - Young Latinas up 149.7% - Black Women up 98.4% - Black Americans up 85.8% - Young Women up 83.7%

And they said new voters are more likely to actually vote. This is apparently a firm that said the 2022 Red Wave that was predicted by most everyone was not going to happen and they were right. (discussion at minute 2.30)

Kyle Kulinski also quoted another study: Voter enthusiasm among Democrats is 78% (the highest since 2008). Republicans at 64%.

Also, in Arizona, Kari Lake is 15 points behind her Republican opponent Ruben Gallego. In Nevada, the Democrat is up 14 points. In North Carolina, the Democrat is up 11 points.

There are direct votes on Abortion rights in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota.

During the primaries in 2024, Trump has underperformed his poll numbers by 8 points (in the actual vote, even after Haley withdrew).

[quote] her Republican opponent Ruben Gallego

?

Damn. I f*cked up. Kari Lake is the Repub and Ruben the Dem. Sorry about that!

All you missed was a comma after opponent. Ruben is the Democrat but he is also the Republican opponent. Or hyphenate Republican-opponent.

Young and older black women are PISSED.

I mean, livid. Just talk I’ve overheard at work, shopping and some of the places I’ve been frequenting this summer makes me think they are going to turn out in huge numbers.

They’re scared and angry that so many white Americans think racism and hate is ok and will vote for it. I don’t blame them. THEY have just as much on the line as anyone of us here.

We all need to stand together and stand strong because we are NOT going back.

“Unprecedented” and “astonishing”, new study reveals massive voter registration surges among young women of color.

Bigger than ‘08. Bigger than ‘22.

r118 Yes, although some of that is just the consequence of millions of voters getting purged from the voter rolls recently. So basically, they're just re-registering.

r118 Yes! Crush Trump.

We have to be careful with registration data because we can cherry-pick the results we like, just like with the polls.

[quote]Pennsylvania Republicans are registering more new voters than Dems

National poll (ABC News/Ipsos, Aug. 23-27): Harris 52%, Trump 46% / n=2,496 / MOE=2%

No convention bounce, unfortunately. But good news on other fronts.

r119, it shows they are paying attention.

[quote]National poll (ABC News/Ipsos, Aug. 23-27): Harris 52%, Trump 46% / n=2,496

Hmmmmm, 6 point lead Outside the 4point error. S can we finally say that Harris has a SOLID two point lead? That if people voted today, she would win BY AT LEAST 2 points? And are people going to say it was a National poll and Democrats have to have a 5 point lead in the popular vote to guarantee a win?

Looking forward to the polls, where Harris hits 55%. Three points to go.

I mean, PA is looking hairier and hairier. So I'm not consoled at all by these national polls.

[quote]PA is looking hairier and hairier.

I love how the trolls pish-tush national polls when it suits them.

The Harris convention bump was not a bump, it was a shift. It will not go away.

Josh Shapiro will lead PA to Democratic EC Victory.

But speaking of trolls, what about Ohio?

I post all the new (high-quality) polls in this thread as soon as they come out. It's a discussion thread, there's no need to call someone a troll just for pointing out certain polls – in a state that really need to be won – *currently* aren't as good for her as others. We'll all adults here, let's try and cut back on the troll rhetoric.

I agree, R127. No one can call these numbers confidence building. Positive or encouraging, yes. People who throw troll at posts like yours are just children covering their ears. They may not be trolls, but they're the same value. I blocked R126 as soon as I saw the word, as I do every time I see the word as a groundless accusation. I like to hear what grown ups are thinking and I'm not afraid of ideas.

The biggest trends to pay attention to are 1) Enthusiam and 2) Registration. And in both cases, since Harris became the nominee, there’s been an explosion of momentum in the Dems’ favor. You can see the same trend in fundraising. More donations coming from smaller dollar donors means more voters.

The gender gap in this election will be huge. And we know which one votes more consistently.

Women.

National poll (I&I/TIPP, Aug. 28-30): Harris 48% (+2), Trump 45% / n=1,386 RV / MOE=2.8%

A+ pollster, however they mention Polymarket in their analysis, which is deplorable.

She needs to be above 50% in national polling come election day. Being below that is what did Hillary in.

She has to be above 54% to beat the Electoral College.

So she needs to gain 6 to 7 more points between now and election day. Fuck me.

Or only 2 more percent depending which outside the error you track.

Keep the faith, r133.

Look for the first times the MSM uses the word

Juggernaut

Juggernaut is when trend meets momentum.

I have never seen so many Trump signs and flags in Philly in all my life.

Well, then, R137, obviously no further polling is needed. Yard signs that you happened to see are always the ultimate indicator of election results.

Where is the Yard Sign Troll?

[quote] Tom Mountain, who had served as one of several vice chairs for the former president's effort in Massachusetts, wrote in an email to Trump volunteers in the state that "the campaign has determined that New Hampshire is no longer a battleground state," and advised supporters to instead direct their attention to Pennsylvania.

A little reality testing. No, Kamala does not need 54% of the vote to win the Electoral College. In 2020 Biden, who won 306 electors (270 needed to win) won 51.3% of the popular vote.

I’ve seen several “politicians are temporary Wu-Tang is forever” yard signs and one my dog for President sign and you know what that means….

There's lots of discussion on Reddit around yard signs and the consensus seems to be that while it's obviously not nearly as reliable a metric as polling, it does show increasing enthusiasm for Trump, especially in PA and Wisconsin. However, it is also true that Harris supporters might be too scared of the blowback to put theirs up. In other words, we might be – yet again – saved by the silent majority come election day.

Trump won the yard sign battle in 2020 but lost the war.

R137 Are there that many stupid people living there? If yes, time to move.

There are a lot of neanderthals living and voting in the US who would never vote for a woman. The rest of us outnumber them. Don't worry.

I find it insane this cunt and his turd VP can be not only considered viable candidates by so many, but they actually vote for them to legitimise their awfulness and stupidity! Still amazes me afresh each time I think of it.

Trump cunt and his Vance turd VP are a desperate appeal to racist whites.

Just that simple.

Harris/Walz will remain within in the margin of error until exit polling, because pollsters will not risk calling this race for her and pulling a Hillary. Hillary's EC loss, Popular Vote win, is something that pollsters cannot recover from.

Harris can be +20 and the race will still be "competitive, toss up, tight, neck and neck".

They do not want Democrats too confident to the point they don't show up to vote.

Harris will have a stellar performance at the debate BUT WILL GET NO BUMP. BY DESIGN.

Just like Hillary. Win the debate, no bump.

We will have to wait for exit polling on early votes.

I was so excited but I am not feeling this having a good outcome anymore.

More than anything, I am scared about project 2025-

I think the human race is utterly doomed- and I think the fact that close to 50% of this country would vote for Satan Jr. is bad enough, and the fact that he may very well win, is the endgame for me.

I'm feeling blue as well. The fact that the Trump camp has now decided to pour pretty much all of its fire power into PA means that state will be a very hard fight for Kamala.

What kind of world will this be? For taxes alone, Project 2025 will have me paying 3000 more a year. And thats just taxes- no the human rights and tyranny/dictatorship aspect.

R149 The country is deeply divided... and a blind skunk would get over 45% of the votes if nominated as Republican/MAGA. It is close and pollsters never "call the race", they present their data. Methodologies differ among the polls, but general trends are usually consistent with each other... AND (as we've said in these threads a bunch, any single poll isn't as important as multiple polls with the same methodologies showing TRENDS or movement.

Conspiracy theories weaken us. Working hard for the election result is more important than smack trolling online, as fun as that may be.

Vote Save America or any other of a number of organizations make it very easy to do phone banking, postcards, etc. It is such an important election, I hope all the DL faithful are also working to elect Harris in real world ways.

Okay, it's past Labor day, now shit gets real.

Some are speculating Kamala moving that much money into downballot races means internal polls must be looking good.

R154 AND it looks like she will continue to get contributions. The number of "never donated before" supporters in the last two months has been unprecedented.

R153, no it's closer to 30%.

Okay, I'm hopeful all over again. Don't know why that bit of news about Trump focusing on GA and PA shook me so, when it's evidence of his path to victory narrowing more than it is of his chances improving.

I am not R157. I think I will stay negative until Election Day, THEN pretend we have it in the bag.. I don't know anymore. In addition to October surprises, with this crew of pigs, we know there will be December surprises and January surprises.

Yes, r158, but that’s just because they are LOSING and they KNOW IT.

They have never made any secret of their plans to steal this if they can’t win it outright. It’s all over the “treason” threads and numerous other threads have been started with various schemes they’ve been hatching. Why do you think the human scab is so desperate to get out of prison NOW?

That cunt is in Club Fed, but he can’t ratfuck without his calls being recorded. He’s been neutralized in prison, unable to cause chaos or direct his army of incels.

They plan to throw out as many votes as possible at the state level, depending on how close the vote is, to swing it in some states.

In other states, they will delay or refuse cert. They’re hoping that they can cause so much chaos and confusion (Flynn and Stone) that the cert deadlines pass and the Electoral College cannot vote.

Then the cunt SCROTUS will hand it the presidency - just like they did Dumbya (with the help of Stone).

Same playbook. Why we don’t have a plan to counter that bullshit outside of “vote” is insane to me. We KNOW what they intend to do. We should have plans in place to cut them off at the knees and be putting it into place NOW.

r160 That IS funny because it implies he's more beloved by Repubs than by Dems. Which of course isn't true, we're just laser-focused on beating Trump.

[bold]Battleground states[/bold] (CNN/SSRS, Aug. 23-29) / MOE = up to 4.9%

Wisconsin: 🟦 Harris 50%, Trump 44% / senate: Baldwin (D) 51%, Hovde (R) 45%

Michigan: 🟦 Harris 48%, Trump 43% / senate: Slotkin (D) 47%, Rogers (R) 41%

Georgia: 🟦 Harris 48%, Trump 47%

Nevada: 🟦 Harris 48%, Trump 47% / senate: Rosen (D) 50%, Brown (R) 40%

Pennsylvania: 🟨 Harris 47%, Trump 47% / senate: Casey (D) 46%, McCormick (R) 46%

Arizona: 🟥 Harris 44%, Trump 49% / senate: Gallego (D) 47%, Lake 44%

God, the six weeks (or more) after election day will be torture as this thing heads to the courts.

Prince George’s County Executive Angela D. Alsobrooks (D) has pulled ahead of former governor Larry Hogan (R) in Maryland’s competitive Senate race, showing a five-point lead among registered voters just over two months before the November election.

[quote]Battleground states (CNN/SSRS, Aug. 23-29)

Politico Playbook:

[quote]One million people have now registered to vote this cycle through Vote .org — including 17% who live in the seven top swing states. More than one-third of the new registrations are from 18-year-olds (way up from 8% in 2020), and 79% are from voters under 35.

PA still can’t get their shit together. I’m feeling secondhand embarrassment for Phillywhores.

Pennsylvania will get it together, r167.

They need to, because I have my heart set on watching that cardboard Independence Hall and mailbox dancing in the street like in 2020.

[quote]Harris is leading Trump by 27 points among a poll of over 3,000 eligible Latino voters, but her lead with Latinos is smaller than Democrats enjoyed in previous elections.

Apologies for linking to Twitter, but I can't seem to find the source document for this apparently internal poll.

[bold]Palm Beach county:[/bold] Harris 56% (+18), Trump 38%

Previous election results, for reference:

Biden +13

Clinton +15

Obama +23

I'm extremely peeved that Nate Silver uses outdated reich wing biased polls to try to act like Kamala's campaign is running out of gas. No you log cabin fag, she has a well funded ground campaign, while Trump is broke from legal bills and having a very public breakdown. Why is the media still trying to pretend he is a normal candidate? They are complicit in this.

Nate Silver is OVAH!

Picture this!

Nate Silver 2016 election.

How lies are spread

[quote]I tell you guys to ignore the polls, but individuals like @EvanPower live by the polls. A new survey was published today, and VP Harris is up by nearly 20 points in Palm Beach County.

Always ignore poll results you don't like and embrace as gospel any that tell you what you want to hear. This is a must.

The other Nate.

Nate Cohn— Nationwide, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by three percentage points, 49 percent to 46 percent. Across the battleground states, the race is a dead heat. In every state and nationwide, the polling average is within 1.5 points of the result of the 2020 presidential election.”

“In short, the polls finally show the close election that analysts expected a year ago, before President Biden’s candidacy went off the rails.”

Lichtman officially calls it for Kamala.

He also said Biden withdrawing could be a tragic mistake for the Dems and he has a horrific taste in hairpieces. So, you know, take it with a grain of salt.

Former advisor to Barack Obama:

R179- I tend to believe he is right. Its all too close. I have given up any hope but will vote and support Kamala-

I certainly haven't given up hope, but there remains a very distinct possibility that Trump will be elected again.

this is a turnout election. Many new voters this cycle, some just turned 18 and many who have never voted but will vote for the first time. The actual data on both those groups is minimal and theoretical. Will they turn out? Historically newly registered voters DO turn out and there many of them since Harris entered the race

Trump can only win if voter suppression via voter "hopelessness" leads people to stay home. The only weapon the fascist trump campaign has is cultivating a sense of hopelessness and the idea that a second horrible trump term is inevitable.

DO NOT FALL FOR IT most of this stuff is click bait and attention seeking behaviour designed to create apathy and resignation

VOTE.

Yeah, doomerism is so counterproductive. No one is going to stay at home because she's doing well in the polls, that's not how this works. If anything, her doing well in the polls will only encourage people to volunteer for her and donate more. Fear will never, ever motivate as well as enthusiasm.

And please don't listen to professional pundits like Pfeiffer, whose only goal is to sell more of their own punditry (just look up Favreau's new house).

It should be mandatory that Trump wears a dunce cap.

R182 I think a firm, reasoned, strategic and ENTHUSIASTIC effort is appropriate, and indeed required, for this election. Denying statistics and developments doesn't hurt. Dan Pfeiffer, the Pod Save America pollster quoted at R179, isn't pushing disinformation to get clicks. Sarah Longwell, another pollster/focus group at The Bulwark also is tracking Trump's possible/probably lead at this point.

So, imho, I think the response is to look at the data, determine what it tells us about where the effort needs to be placed to capture gettable voters that Biden had and Harris is underperforming with (young white males, old white people, younger Latinos) and get out the vote with the Harris base (young women, older white suburban women, black voters). We need to work unlike any election in our lifetime - and balance the two truths 1) a potential dictator might well be elected who'd have the other two branches of gov't in his thrall (Congress, Supreme Court) and 2) a potential Presidency of a woman who could redefine center-left progressive for 21st century.

More than vote: give money, volunteer for canvassing, give money to downticket races... stay enthusiastic but realistic. "We like hard work", Kamala Harris.

[quote] Dan Pfeiffer, the Pod Save America pollster quoted at [R179], isn't pushing disinformation to get clicks. Sarah Longwell, another pollster/focus group at The Bulwark also is tracking Trump's possible/probably lead at this point.

I could have been clearer, I don't believe Pfieffer is pushing disinformation to get clicks. I think the race is essentially tied, based on available data. The trends are in Kamala's favor, so let's work to accelerate that. Working like you are 10 points behind is always a good policy. Having said that, the perception of being the winner is an accelerant to attract new and firmer support.

The only additional thing to add is that,, while I don't believe this is disinformation, it IS clickbait. Everything is. I don't mean to imply they shouldn't publish and expect clicks, just protect your central nervous system from overload and adrenal flooding :) Get to work. This isn't easy. VOTE

Tuesday's debate remains the final unknown.

R186 It's an interesting question: do we think of "clickbait" as something bad? ... we usually use the term as descriptive of sensationalist, even false, images and stories merely to drive traffic to a site. But it's like saying of a print author, "oh, he just published that to get people to read him." Well, yeah.

I've trained myself to just tune out clickbait outlets like Newsweek and TheNewRepublic and DailyBeast this election cycle. They're just telling the libs what we want to hear. Newsweek doubly sucks because they do the same thing to the other side as well.

[quote] [R186] It's an interesting question: do we think of "clickbait" as something bad?

clickbait is the economic engine of the digital age. If you post something, you want to capture attention and increase the value of your brand, your site your product with numbers that translate to $$$ and prestige. It's neither good nor bad it's simply the way it works. My only point is to be aware that your attention is a commodity and some outlets will do anything to get it.

Every thread on the DL is clickbait, of a type.

Its this shit that makes me get my hopes up!

PA is also within MOA and seemingly getting tighter with each passing week, does that get your hopes down?

Sorry, I don't mean to be a bitch, but we were just discussing clickbait articles and then you come up with one, like we were in a sitcom, lol.

R193- TRUE! :)

[quote]New poll shows Florida, Texas within margin of error in Harris-Trump race

When a poll shows a candidate ahead by 4 or 5 points, almost always news outlets will just state the candidate is ahead. You can tell they are really pandering to their audience when they state in the headline that such a lead is within the margin of error. Sometimes, when a candidate is only 1 point ahead, a news outlet pandering to that candidate's voters will state the candidate is ahead and not state at all that it's within the margin of error. There's no consistency.

Whatever wording makes the best clickbait, of course.

He has now copied his insane Truth Social rant about jailing election workers if he loses to Twitter. While the zone is currently getting flooded with slanted right-wing polls in order to distort the actual state of the race (just like in 2022, only now with added bullshit crypto betting markets), the internals must be looking BAD for him and so he's freaking the fuck out.

That NYT/Siena national poll is absolutely brutal for Kamala, there's no two ways about it. Trump +1 in popular vote 60 days before the election? We are so fucked.

Tuesday's debate is her last chance to turn things around.

R198 my question is why is the energy and hope not translating to people voting?

In 2008, hope and change made the election a runaway for Obama. Why is that not happening here?

[quote]my question is why is the energy and hope not translating to people voting?

I have no idea. There's been essentially no movement towards her since July, according to that poll. What the fuck? And 30% are waiting to see more of her? Yeah, that debate is going to seal her fate, one way or another.

She is close or tied in the swing states, which is better but also not ideal.

[quote]In 2008, hope and change made the election a runaway for Obama.

It also needs to be pointed out that 2008 was a change election, coming after two GOP terms. That is obviously not the case here.

r198, The NY Times Sienna Poll has a 3 point margin of error and (as the NY Times article admits, is essentially an unchanged from the July poll. The battleground states mostly show Harris is tied or has a slim ( within the margin of error) lead. The Harris campaign can and will respond to the information in this poll via hard work and strategy. We are far from fucked, but we are on notice: This isn't going to be a walk on the beach and Harris, if you believe her comments on the issue, has always felt that this will be a very tight race, and she is prepared for it.

What I don't see in the Times article is acknowledgement that Harris has retained the support she got that Biden had lost, and she clearly has. In other words, Biden was losing voters to trump, but Harris got them back to a significant degree. Had she not, the race would be much less close if you assume Biden had continued to hemorrhage voters

Polls also have limitations and, as we have seen in recent cycles, have a hard time predicting what will happen on election day. Even in 2020 Biden's win was not as wide as many polls predicted. The so-called Red Wave that was widely predicted but never happened. etc. Polls have a very hard time tracking the opinions of younger voters and are still relying on people answering their phones which remains a selected, usually older sample because younger people don't have landlines generally and don't answer their phones.

The upshot of this poll is basically what everyone, including the Harris campaign, already knew: The race is essentially tied. I don't think the debate is unimportant but fot many people it won't move them one way or another unless there is another unmitigated disaster from either side. Even then, ground game and swing state strategy will trump trump if he manages to have a good debate. I hope he shits himself ina variety of ways, but the perception coming off the debate will have less impact that key state ground game and strategy.

All to say r198, I appreciate your thoughts but gently disagree that we are fucked. We are TIED. Let's get her elected.

[quote]It also needs to be pointed out that 2008 was a change election, coming after two GOP terms. That is obviously not the case here.

I believe that Trump has made, and is continuing to make, significant damage to America. 2020 was a change election and 2024 is also a change election. Only when MAGA is neutralized will we return to anything close to ordinary government.

[quote]and 2024 is also a change election

I mean, by definition it's not, since Dems have had the White House for four years now and Kamala has been a part of that administration. 2008 and 2016 were change elections.

R204 In a sense EVERY election is a change election now. No matter who is incumbent. The current environment (fueled by the digital sources that monetize dissatisfaction and unhappiness) results in everyone, from ultra-leftists to the fascist extreme rightwing, is unhappy with the status quo. I think Harris, in the way she was an off-the-wall surprise outsider candidate (despite her being the VP of the current administration) AND her clever focus on moving forward, rejecting the status quo, is spot on.

Yes. the NY/Siena poll shows a very tight race - it will be - but looking at movement in the internals, and seeing how non-Presidential Dems are performing unexpectedly well (NV Senate, AZ Gov, NC Gove et. al.) if have every confidence Harris will win more than 270 electors. Next step - show up at the debate and seem like a smart, caring adult, not an angry, confused and confusing dotard.

R201, don’t forget Sarah Palin.

This is not a change election. It’s a referendum on the Biden administration. Kamala is the Biden administration.

R207 Again "change" is not going back to the 1950s, making abortion illegal nationally, supporting Russian invasions, giving huge tax breaks to billionaires, imposing tariffs that will crash the American economy...

"Change" is, as Harris says, time to turn the page on divisiveness. No number of internet trolls trying to make Harris be Biden can change that.

This is a change election. It’s a referendum on the corruption of the Trump administration.

JD is a shill for corruption, as Pence is a witness for the 1/6 Federal prosecution.

A referendum on corruption.

[quote]It’s a referendum on the corruption of the Trump administration.

No, that was 2020. This election is half a referendum on the achievements of the Biden-Harris administration and half on whether the people want a return to the 2016-2020 era. It's half of a change election, if you will, and certainly not a clear-cut change election like 2008 and 2016 were.

Not to mention it's also a referendum on Roe and Trump's incarceration. It's a whole damn mess, basically.

[quote]"Change" is, as Harris says, time to turn the page on divisiveness. No number of internet trolls trying to make Harris be Biden can change that.

I mean, they went to great pains to mention "the Biden-Harris administration" in all their press releases when it was time to tout their achievements, like job reports or stats on decreased crime. It's kinda weird to hear you now say she had nothing to do with any of it.

I did not say "she had nothing to do with the Biden administration"... you will not put words in my mouth kiddo. I said she was focused on the future. Another example is how Biden's main re-election message was "Trump is a threat to democracy"... Harris's message is "we're not going back"... an opportunity economy needs to be built... and built on what has been accomplished in the last four years, but GOING FORWARD, new things, new opportunities, and leaving the toxic divisions behind. Time to MOVE ON.

That's a nice rhetorical trick, but in essence we're fighting the exact same fight as in 2020, nothing has fundamentally changed. Trump is still a threat that needs to be dealt with and Kamala won't be all about hope and change come Tuesday, she's gonna attack him at every opportunity like it's still 2020 and he's still the president.

R214 Myopia, in many ways. One, of several things you've ignoring: AFTER the 2020 election a sitting President tried to subvert the constitutional peaceful transfer of power. It was an insurrection and he's been charged with criminal interference. And convicted of sexual assault and financial corruption... all of this AFTER the 2020 election. That's not a rhetorical trick, it's history.

Kumbaya Kamala at the rallies, Kunt Kamala at the debates, basically. I just hope she doesn't alienate too many undecideds, we all know how gross people can get when it comes to assertive women.

R216- nailed it..

R216 So she was a "Kunt" in her debate against Pence? I imagine you think she was a "Kunt" in the Senate Judiciary Committee hearings where she was strong, assertive and "prosecuting" the case?

I think America is going beyond this now... I mean some will reactive negatively to ANY woman who is assertive. But MAGA loves Kari Lake and MTG... so it's tribal-driven as much as universal reticence about gender and strength. If someone thinks Senate Committee Kamala is a "Kunt", they would never vote for her ever. The marginal voters in the swing states are more diverse and open to a strong woman. Slowly, America is changing and you can see in TicToc nonsense more than Datalounge calcified posturing.

[quote]The marginal voters in the swing states are more diverse and open to a strong woman.

Well, I hope you're right on that front at least, and that it's borne out come election day.

It is a change election, can we finally incarcerate Trump, or has his corruption totally insulated him from the rule of law?

Apparently, this week in 2008, Obama was down 2 points nationally.

[quote] The marginal voters in the swing states are more diverse and open to a strong woman.

No they aren’t. They more socially conservative. They’re not going to vote for a woman.

Take a look at the Obama/McCain polling during the first two weeks of September.

It looks similar to this race. Obama didn’t really pull ahead of McCain until late September.

Numbers are very important to Trump even though he can't count.

Trump has been a burlesque of a real person ever since he went out of his way to say his inaugural attendance numbers were better than Obama's.

[quote]This is a change election.

Yes, but it wouldn't make any sense for Kamala to be that change to the public since she's an integral part of the current administration. As this poll shows, only 25% say she's the change. People are more likely to vote for an actual change.

The change is getting rid of the Trump/Republican throttle in the house for the past 2 years.

[quote]The change is getting rid of the Trump/Republican throttle in the house for the past 2 years.

That may happen, along with change in control of the Senate.

The change in the control of the Senate rests firmly on the Abortion issue in ALL states.

We shall see.

Roe was still the law of the land in 2020.

Now Republicans are gunning for Griswold.

Evangelicals are gunning for Griswold.

And Catholics,Project 2025 and SCOTUS.

Evangelicals have used Catholic stooges on the Supreme Court to keep their hands, seemingly, clean. Dobbs got rid of that notion,

Bill Kristol sounds like a DLer. He should come here for support.

R226 Supreme Court's partisanship and social engineering. End of reproductive rights. Extreme divisions in our public rhetoric. Culture wars. Book banning. Dishonoring veterans. Tax cuts for billionaires. Congressional inactions and noise and government shutdowns. Oh, yes, it's indeed a change election. And the change isn't what you suspect. Watch.

"Trump won veterans by 19 percentage points in 2016 but leads by 10 now,

while his lead among active service members dropped from 19 points to 5 points

and 12 points to 2 points with family members."

Isn’t looking at the individual demographics instead of each of the battleground states as a whole like not seeing the forest for the trees?

R237 Yes and no. Digging into the demographics can HELP understand what's happening in the battleground states. One sure way to screw up winning the swing states is to think ONE answer is enough. I.e. pitch too white working class union members in PA will win GA and AZ. No, it won't. Younger Latino voters in AZ. Middle aged middle class white voters in GA. Suburban moms in MI. Etc.

National poll (Pew/SSRS, Aug. 26 - Sep. 2): Trump 49%, Harris 49% / n=8044 RV, MOE=1.3%

North Carolina (SurveyUSA, Sep. 7): Harris 49% (+3), Trump 46% / n=900 LV

A+ pollster.

The new FAU/Mainstreet Research poll shows Trump ahead in North Carolina (and Georgia). What's it rated?

New Q polling of NC and GA

Not election polls so not entirely on topic but...

Virginia (WaPo/Schar School, Sep. 4-8): Harris 50%, Trump 42% / senate: Kaine (D) 53%, Cao (R) 41% / n=1,005 LV, MOE=3.5%

Virginia apparently not in play for Trump. Link to TheHill because DL doesn't allow WaPo.

Virginia was never going to be in play for Trump.

And look for a huge Blue Wave in 2025, too.

All the VA GOP has running then is Crackhead Evita for governor and John "Byrd Park Cocksucker" Reid as Lt. Governor.

Morning Consult poll from yesterday has her at +10 in Virginia as well.

Tuesday weekly update. Here's the 7-day movement in the FiveThirtyEight polling averages for the 7 battleground states and National. Unfortunately it's the 2nd consecutive week where the race is tightening a little more, in Trump's favor, after the first 4 weeks of August were looking increasingly good for Harris. Hoping and praying that tonight's ABC debate damages him and helps Harris.

The data:

ARIZONA. Sept 10: Trump +0.6. Sept 3: Harris +0.2%. Loss of 0.6%. AZ (11 EVs) remains tied.

GEORGIA. Sept 10: Trump +0.5%. Sept 3: Harris +0.4%. Loss of 0.9%. GA (16 EVs) remains tied.

MICHIGAN. Sept 10: Harris +1.9%. Sept 3: Harris +2.3%. Loss of 0.4%. MI (15 EVs) remains a slight Harris lead but "tied" from a statistical, margin-of-error sense.

NEVADA. Sept 10: Harris +0.4%. Sept 3: Harris +0.7%. Loss of 0.3%. NV (6 EVs) remains tied.

NORTH CAROLINA. Sept 10: Harris +0.3%. Sept 3: Trump +0.4%. Gain of 0.9%. This is the one bright spot in this week's update, an improvement for Harris. NC (16 EVs) remains tied.

PENNSYLVANIA. Sept 10: Harris +1.0. Sept 3: Harris +1.2%. Loss of 0.2%. PA remains tied, statistically speaking.

WISCONSIN. Sept 10: Harris +2.8%. Sept 3: Harris +3.1%. Loss of 0.3%. WI remains a Harris slight lead, but within the statistical margin of error.

NATIONAL. Sept 10: Harris +2.8%. Sept 3: Harris +3.2%. Loss of 0.4%. This is in sync with the average loss/gain of all 7 battleground states above.

Things could change in Harris's favor, over the coming month. But right now it's looking extremely tight.. and trending just a little in a not-good way. Early voting starts around Oct 8 in Arizona and Wisconsin, and vote-by-mail will start to happen this month across several states as well. So we need to see some positive signs in the polls, 1 or 2 weeks from now.

A trend that’s statistically meaningless as of your post. Come back to us next week, and the week after …

And r250 will continue to move the goal post. 🙄

251 you do understand that those losses (and gain) are actual rounding errors, don’t you?

You don’t?

[quote]Virginia was never going to be in play for Trump. And look for a huge Blue Wave in 2025, too. All the VA GOP has running then is Crackhead Evita for governor and John "Byrd Park Cocksucker" Reid as Lt. Governor.

The Virginia gubernatorial election is next year.

Trump on defense in NC…,

[quote]The Virginia gubernatorial election is next year.

What part of 2025 passed you by?

Prayer circle for a post-debate bump. 🙏

R257 The hyper partisanship of our politics is so baked in, we can't hope for that much of a numbers bounce from polls. A former President urged a mob of supporters to attack the Capitol and stop the constitutional process to certify an election. And that man has continued to have a firm 45-46% no matter what. Babbling confusedly and talking about eating dogs in a debate should disqualify him... it won't. The election will be close. We (those who care about the Republic more than Trump) will need to work hard all the way through the election.

Wisconsin (MULaw, Sep. 5): Harris 48%, Trump 43%, Kennedy 6% / n=738 LV

r259 Jennifer Rubin's cunty reply to the poll:

[quote]If she actually wins Wis by 4 it is a rout. IF. Work more, gloat less

Gloat less? She's giving Maureen Dowd-levels of internalised misogyny.

I would say that Wisconsin is currently a 52% Democratic state, so the poll results for both Harris and Baldwin seem spot on. I wouldn’t call it a rout. California and Vermont would be a rout. Wisconsin isn’t showing anything unusual or unexpected.

What's a rout?

R259 Why do they still have Kennedy in the poll? I know it says September 5 - RFKj dropped out on August 23.

Is he still on the ballot?

Oh you're right. He's on the Wisconsin ballot (and 20 other states as of Sept 10). The Hill: "After he suspended his campaign, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been trying to get his name off the ballot in states where his candidacy might help Democratic nominee Vice President Harris."

I want David Pakman to cum in my mouth.

It looks like the people on DL were right who predicted that Harris would be considered the winner of the debate, but that it wouldn't move the needle. In this Leger survey, Harris was deemed the winner by 50% of respondents, but Harris keeps the same percentage of support she had from the previous Leger poll (50%) and Trump gained one point.

R267 that poll makes no sense. Only 50 percent thought Kamala won? Every poll I’ve seen had about 65 percent believing she won.

Some of the other polls didn’t have “neither” as a choice, like CNN for instance (63% Harris, 37% Trump).

[quote] I want David Pakman to cum in my mouth.

Hi, David!

R270 lol cheeky

[quote] It looks like the people on DL were right who predicted that Harris would be considered the winner of the debate, but that it wouldn't move the needle. In this Leger survey, Harris was deemed the winner by 50% of respondents, but Harris keeps the same percentage of support she had from the previous Leger poll (50%) and Trump gained one point.

The impact of decisive debates on polls is very rarely seen immediately in polling. Even after Biden's campaign ending debate performance, it took some weeks for that damage he did to be reflected in the polls. We could see the same thing after trumps equally disastrous performance on Tuesday, polls may reflect no significant change (most likely Harris +3 -5 but within the margin of error. It can take voters weeks+ to digest what they watched or heard about the debate, even though Harris was the clear and only winner. 60 million+ watched in live, and then the clips and memes in th days following will have a huge impact. But because the number of persuadable voters is so narrow and because they tend to be very low information voters, it takes time to sink in.

OR you could see significant changes right away. Trump is currently in the process of allowing the dregs of the MAGA mess movement back in his inner circle, these freaks know how to manipulate trump, and they will get Susie wiles and Chris lacivita fired in the next few weeks by encouraging dump to blame them for his disastrous debate performance. Don't cry for them though, Laciivita is the Swift Boat cunt.

All polls for this cycle will sunset when early voting exit polls begin, with, you know, actual voters.

I don't understand what that means, 273. No traditional polls will be conducted anymore a couple of weeks before election day, just exit polls?

It means all this contrived "tight" "too close to call" race will be revealed to be a landslide for Harris. All the polls, up to voting, do is make sure there is enough fear in Democrats to get them off the couch to vote.

R275 And, pray tell, how will early voting assure "a landslide for Harris" when the votes aren't counted until election day????

Let me clarify, the landslide that nobody wants to predict will become evident once people actually start voting.

Here’s a cogent analysts:

Pull quote: To be clear, we have no idea whether the polls will be biased consistently one way or the other in 2024. Maybe Trump will be understated again: if so, he is almost certainly going to win the election given how close the polls are now. Maybe Harris will be understated: if so, she is in a great position to win given that she appears to already lead in enough states to win 270 electoral votes, albeit barely. Or there might be little bias either way, or inconsistent bias depending on the state, in which case this election will be very hard to confidently predict based on the current numbers

^^

“Our best guess is that because Trump’s polling position is better than 2016 and 2020, it’s likelier that he’s at least not being as underestimated as much as he was in previous elections, if he is being underestimated at all. For one thing, other indicators do not really suggest that we’re in the midst of an electoral environment that is much stronger for Republicans than the past two elections (those indicators include special elections in 2023 and 2024 and the recent Washington state top-two primary). While Democrats have now nominated three different opponents against Donald Trump, Trump himself will be on the ballot for a third straight time. It just doesn’t seem likely to us that he will do markedly better than he did in either 2016 or 2020, which is what would happen if the polls were biased against him again.”

[quote] Even after Biden's campaign ending debate performance, it took some weeks for that damage he did to be reflected in the polls.

He had damage the same night, and then additional damage each day after that because of things he did subsequently and because of things his “supporters” said about him afterward. His polling continued to slide because of the additional damage that kept happening, it wasn’t people suddenly changing their mind, weeks later, about his debate performance.

Right now, all the effect of the Trump-Harris debate has happened and it will be built in to every poll result from this moment on.

[quote] It means all this contrived "tight" "too close to call" race will be revealed to be a landslide for Harris.

I’d much rather have people believing that’s true than having loons freaking out all over DL from now until November. Keep them pacified.

It looks like this MI poll was done post-debate. I’m surprised by the result. I suppose Michigan may be close after all.

Insider Advantage once got into hot water for claiming Nate Silver said they were one of the most accurate polling firms.

In fact, Silver ranked then #62 of out of the 63 polling firms he evaluated.

Michigan is pretty much a given for the Dems, so that poll is a joke.

Interestingly, in their article, the pollster touts themselves specifically for their performance in MI in 2020.

[quote] Michigan is pretty much a given for the Dems

I would think so too, although the previous two polls have Harris up by only one or tied, so maybe it will end up close.

National poll (Reuters/Ipsos, Sep. 11-12): Harris 47% (+1), Trump 42% / n=1,405 RV, MOE=3%

R278 What a useless analysis. That’s saying a lot of things but really says nothing at all.

Kamala gained next to nothing post-debate. Sad.

Most people registering to vote are registering Republican. Not good.

People just don’t like Kamala and Biden is one of the most hated presidents in American history. She would have had a shot if she hadn’t been connected to his administration.

[quote]and Biden is one of the most hated presidents in American history.

Put down the vodka, Svetlana.

R292, that’s a fact. Since the start of polling, Biden is at the lowest of any of them at this point in his presidency. He’s historically unpopular.

A fact like migrants eating pets, R293?

[quote]Since the start of polling, Biden is at the lowest of any of them at this point in his presidency. He’s historically unpopular.

Because today's Republicans are historically stupid.

Snopes:

Public opinion polls released in April 2024 found Joe Biden to be the least popular U.S. president in 70 years.

Rating: True

I am trying to understand why new registrations would be referred to as voter registration changes R290. Also those numbers seem bizarrely low. Only two people registered Republican in Rhode Island in August?

[quote] People just don’t like Kamala and Biden is one of the most hated presidents in American history. She would have had a shot if she hadn’t been connected to his administration.

r291. The only response to this patently ridiculous "from the future" fantasy post based on your twisted desires for this country is :

Fuck. Right Off

R290 could it possibly mean new registrations, and also party affiliation changes and also removal from the rolls?

r291, Sweetie, you have to turn the page on the tired Roy Cohn Playbook.

Never accepting a defeat.

Never admit you lost.

Always blame someone else.

People see how detached from reality Trump is when he expects people to believe the opposite of what they witnessed.

Like HIS 1/6 attack on the Capitol.

Like his epic loss with his Harris Debate performance.

Like his denial of losing the 2020 election.

Trump cannot turn criminals into heroes, only pardon them.,

Trump can say he won the debate and that's why he is not going to debate her again.

Trump tried to come clean with the whisker comment, but he went back to lying.

The Cohn Playbook is a book of lies and lying.

MAGA are waking up, and finding that Republicans have removed their rights and re-enslaved Blacks and women and legal immigrants.

Trump will lose. He deserves to lose.

He is not an American.

ElderLez, I don’t see r289 to r291 (and other posts in this thread) because I’ve blocked them. A look at Trolldar reveals that the poster at r290 is the same one disparaging both Kamala and Biden all through these threads, so don’t trust anything they post.

Feeling hopeful again. 😊

Arkansas (Talk Business/ Politics-Hendrix College, Sep. 5-6): Trump 55%, Harris 40% / n=696 LV, MOE= 4.6%

Trump won the state by 28 points in 2020.

That’s amazing R303!

Thanks R301!

[quote]What happened in 2022 is that in the battleground states, the Republicans flooded the field with polls that were usually 2-4 points more Republican than the independent polls. They ended up pushing the polling averages to the right. RCP had Republicans with 54 Senate seats.

[quote]Some of those same polling outfits that haven’t done public polling for the last two years have returned. Wick, Insider Advantage, Trafalgar, and Patriot Polling started producing polls in the battleground states, showing their results 2-4 points more Republican than all the other polling. So, it’s literally the exact same thing.

[quote][bold]The reason it matters is it demobilizes. When we think we’re losing, we demobilize. Our voters disengage, and money dries up. The same is true for them. They want to give Trump and Republican voters the belief that the election is closer than it really is.[/bold]

[quote][bold]The second thing is if Trump tries to cheat and overturn the election results, he needs data showing he was somehow winning.[/bold]

It wouldn’t be an election season without claims of polling conspiracies. Thanks, r305.

You're very welcome. Though technically it's not an election conspiracy, given how far off the mark the mentioned pollsters were in 2022. And now they've been joined by even scummier (and scammier) Polymarket. So that ought to be fun in retrospect.

" People just don’t like Kamala and Biden is one of the most hated presidents in American history. She would have had a shot if she hadn’t been connected to his administration."

Sad, isn't it? They can't even fill huge stadiums night after night. 🤣

R303 - so this is telling us how much support Trump has lost in Arkansas and is probably indicative of his problems in other states.

Cool!

test

[quote] so this is telling us how much support Trump has lost in Arkansas and is probably indicative of his problems in other states.

Whether it is or isn’t indicative of anything, it doesn’t matter to people who see whatever they want to see in the data.

[quote] and a 4 point national lead is an electoral college win.

If that lead exists when people are voting.

[quote]We now have post 7/21 registration updates for every battleground state. All percentages are increases relative to the same week in 2020:

[quote]22% overall

[quote]34% women

[quote]50% under 30

[quote]56% modelled Dems

[quote]58% Black

[quote]125% Black women under 30

My question, generally speaking, is what happens if donOLD totally flames out and it becomes apparent to even more people that he's batshit crazy and incapacitated?

Do the Harris/Walz voters still turn out just in case but the MAGA voters stay home...resulting in down ballot races overwhelmingly tilt D?

Hopefully, everyone learned their lesson in 2016 and won’t take anything for granted.

A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump nationally in a head-to-head match up, 50% to 45%.

In a multi-candidate field, Harris lead by a similar 48% to 44% margin.

In last month’s poll just after the Democratic convention, Harris led by a narrow 47% to 46%.

I expect beautiful new post-debate polls to come out next week.

Yasss. Come thru dogs and cats of Springfield Ohio.

This country needs an enema.

The next few weeks will be nerve wracking. Trump notoriously hates to lose and in desperation might do anything. But, I also think he's tired of it all. He's old and exhausted and unfit. I could also seem him just checking out.

[quote] But, I also think he's tired of it all

I think so too. As BB King would wail “the thrill is gone”. At almost 80 years old, it must be exhausting traveling nonstop, giving lame speeches, and having your world get smaller and smaller. I mean, for crissakes, he’s cozying to Laura fucking Loomer

Does anyone have MAGA Facebook “friends”. - what are they saying? My family/old school chums have been quiet for a while

Hey, it's either that, or jail!

I'm not interested in the thread but thank you for trying to keep it all in one thread.

Kamala is exhausted. Trump is still going. He’s not tired at all. He’s running from jail.

Seeing that Harris got a bump in the polls from the debate, it's probably wise from the Trump perspective not to agree to debate again and just let the bump recede between now and voting.

Don't believe polls. They're all biased. Some Pollsters interview Democrats. Others select Republicans to answer questions.

[quote]The next few weeks will be nerve wracking.

Everyone should be mindful that winter is coming.

I think its so close that if she wins, And I would say 51/49- her favor- It will be a fucking WARZONE

I hope she is 51/49 in every state.

R331, the fuck are you talking about?

Polls matter when they tell you what you want to hear.

I read an interesting theory reposted by Joy Reid whereby if Trump wins, he’ll step down and let Vance assume the presidency in exchange for blanket pardons for the entire family. That’s the reason why they chose Vance, who’s just as evil but infinitely smarter.

A narcissist like him would never willingly step down from the presidency like that. Just shows how clueless Joy Reid is.

Also, there's no reason Trump couldn't issue a blanket pardon for himself and his entire family. With the current Supreme Court, the presidential pardoning power isn't getting curtailed in any way.

[quote] I read an interesting theory reposted by Joy Reid

Was this posted by her or Russians she claims made her type that gays were degenerates?

Iowas poll is out. Trump collapsing —lead down to 4 points.

Ann is the god standard pollster, as you all Know.

I generally automatically dismiss any conspiracy type theories, but when it comes to those people, I think anything is possible. R334 sounds plausible. While his presidency would be insanity, the backlash would be amazing.

"The latest ABC News/Ipsos poll shows that Vice President Kamala Harris has a slight lead over former President Donald Trump, statistically unchanged compared to before the debate. Most Americans think Harris won the debate, with majorities reporting that they watched or listened to some of the debate and followed news coverage after the debate. Due to the debate, twice as many Americans now report viewing Harris rather than Trump favorably.

On the issues, Trump is seen as better for issues like the economy and inflation, while Harris is seen as better on issues like healthcare, abortion, and protecting democracy."

I don't know how she closes the economy gap but they better come up with something.

National poll (ABC News/Ipsos, Sep. 11-13): Harris 51%, Trump 47% / n=3,219, MOE=1.8%

[quote]I don't know how she closes the economy gap but they better come up with something.

You can't close stupid. And that's what the people who think he'd be better for the economy are.

Iowa (Des Moines Register/Mediacom, Sep. 8-11): Trump 47%, Harris 43% / n=811, MOE=3.4%

Trump carried the state by 8 points in 2020.

Yes, we knew that^^

r342 Selzer is a bouncy poll (showed Trump and Biden tied this time in 2020) and also had Trump +18 over Biden in June. However, its margin has been predictive of the direction of the national polling error in 2016, 2020, and 2022. If Kamala's current Iowa numbers hold and when you remove RFK's 6%, we probably end up with a repeat of 2020 in other swing states. Which is good enough.

[quote]I don't know how she closes the economy gap but they better come up with something.

Financial Times:

"For the second month in a row, the FT-Michigan Ross poll showed Harris with a narrow advantage over Trump on stewardship of the economy, with 44 per cent of registered voters saying they trusted the Democratic vice-president to handle the economy and 42 per cent backing the Republican former president. Last month, she led 42 per cent to 41 per cent.

But Harris fared even better with voters who tuned into Tuesday’s presidential debate,.

Of the nearly three-quarters of respondents who said they watched all or part of the 90-minute debate, 48 per cent said they trusted Harris more to manage the economy, compared with 42 per cent for Trump."

The FT-Michigan Ross Poll was conducted online by Democratic strategists Global Strategy Group and Republican polling firm North Star Opinion Research from September 11-12. It reflects the opinions of 1,002 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

I guess they mean nation-wide? But how do you do an "online" poll?

Oh and this paragraph - from the same poll? People can be so stupid.

"Despite those advantages, voters still believed that they would be better off financially if Trump were re-elected, with 40 per cent saying they would either be somewhat or much better off under his presidency, and just 35 per cent saying they would be better off under Harris."

[quote]But how do you do an "online" poll?

The Ipsos poll at r339 was also done using an online panel. They have web-based apps now where you fill your data after you get invited.

Thanks R347. I answer yougov polls all the time - after a while they give you $100.

And I guess I have a lot of nerve calling other people stupid.

dat true^

Kamala broke 50% nationally and that is GREAT NEWS!

Her trajectory is excellent. She’s peaking at the right time while the dotard and the fucktard are starting to spiral mentally and in the polls.

Let’s keep up the pressure and keep pushing forward!

Kamala is at 48.0% according to 538. She hasn’t broken 50%.

High-quality PA polls coming out tomorrow – one statewide and two bellwethers.

Trump just truthed "I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT". He has data showing things he doesn't like and that we don't know yet, but those things are bound to percolate through more public polls by mid-week.

He probably thinks being in the news cycle 24/7 is the only thing that can save his campaign at this point. He might be right, we'll see in the upcoming polls.

[quote] Kamala is at 48.0% according to 538. She hasn’t broken 50%.

Results of the ABC/Ipsos poll. She is at 52% with likely voters. I think you might be looking at an aggregate.

Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken Sept. 11-13, essentially unchanged from her six-point leads with likely voters

I already have plans to move if Trump is elected.

The cold fact is that Harris will not win unless she starts picking up support. Her poll margins in the battleground states is smaller than Biden's in 2020 and the votes almost always broke for Trump in higher proportions than the polls showed, and she can't get to/sustain even a polling tie in AZ, GA, NV, or PA.

She can win without AZ, GA and NV if she gets PA, but a non-white, female Democrat has three strikes against her from the start, while the Democrats act as if she's the New God of Change. Also, if the Democrats don't hit and hit and hit for the Senate, her win would mean little, given Senate SCOTUS powers.

Not. Looking. Good.

[quote]Not. Looking. Good.

Thanks for the update, Svetlana.

The pollsters are set to move her needle very gradually but definitely over 53% by early voting. 53% is the limit of probability where she could still lose while maintaining a statistical advantage.

She would be there now but 2016...

Get lost

R356 is giving serious Boris and Natasha vibes. I will give this troll credit, "concern trolling" is harder to do and takes more thought than just flat out MAGAT screeching. Nevertheless, it spins and stinks.

For those who were rattled by her/his/their concern trolling: The variables in this election are combined in ways we haven't seen in recent cycles. We have (record voter registration from first time adult voters, a new, sizeable generation of voters we’ve never tracked before because they haven't voted yet. So that's old and young new voters at record numbers. Secondly, ABORTION is on the ballot nationally for the first time, Thirdly the persuadable voters are trending toward Harris and away from Dump. Dump is alienating persuadable voters daily. ... etc. don't listen to this concern troll shit its just an old voter suppression tactic

National poll (TIPP, Sep. 13): Harris 47% (+3), Trump 43% / n=1,721 RV

A+ pollster.

It's more and more apparent to me (with the caveat that things and events are still in flux - October surprises and subsequent debates etc.) that Harris will win the national vote, possibly with a bit more than Biden. But that the battleground states and electoral college are a problem. I don't feel good about PA, but I think it's very possible for Harris to get NC, NV, AZ and GA and so still win.

It's amazing to me that it's so close. I never will understand it.

[quote] For those who were rattled by her/his/their concern trolling:

The correct advice to those who are “rattled” by anything that someone else writes on DL is to schedule an extra session with your therapist.

Neither will we, r362

Evian is delicious

Has she broken 50% yet or not?

r359, Come out of the Dark and into the Light.

Here’s hoping. I still have PTSD from 2016.

Me too r369

More info ^^

Up by four in PA??

One has to temper one's enthusiasm. Well, this one has to. If anything we need to work harder - donate, phone bank, canvass.

[quote]Harris leads Trump 49% to 46% in the first high quality non-partisan poll of Pennsylvania conducted since the debate

But before the second assassination attempt. Hope it holds once that's factored in as well.

Tim Miller has a really good breakdown of why the new PA polls is promising for Harris.

Harris will SLOWLY edge over 50% and then outside the margin of error JUST BEFORE voting begins.

If YOU think YOU have PTSD from 2016, the pollsters are facing an existential challenge to their very existence if they blow 2024. That is OK with the Democrats because a runaway election prediction will decrease voter turn out.

I just wonder what Trump will pull from his ass NEXT?

Black men raping white women is a classic hat hasn't been used.

Black men and violent crime is over if they want Black men to vote for Trump.

Trump's chances of winning on 538 have fallen into the 30s for the first time.

I am breathing some sighs of relief this morning. I know anything can happen, still. I know she's barely got an edge. But she has it, and it seems to be growing, and there's no indication that Trump has any more cards to play. So, for me, there's reason to be hopeful.

I think I'll go donate another $500 to the Harris campaign to celebrate.

Harris leads by SIX in latest national Morning Consult Poll, 51% to 45%.

R377 Oh, be assured, there are many, many cards in the deck yet to be played.

Harris is ahead, but there is NOTHING that indicates she is going to win with any margin. Some quality polls still show Trump ahead in PA, GA, NC, AZ. If Trump wins those he wins the election, no matter how many points he's behind nationally.

I think panicking isn't helpful... there is a REAL opportunity to put Trump back on the shelf (except for the civil war he's try to start if he loses), but we need to keep the pedal to the metal. If you haven't donated $ yet, you need to. Look for places to volunteer. We can win this.

R378 Morning Consult isn't the best poll. They had Biden up by 8 points right before the 2020 election.

Joy, yes I feel it, but it just energizes me to do more.

R379, did you not see where I said I was going to give another $500 to the campaign? I've donated, and I'll do it again.

Who are you talking to about panicking?

R382 Sweetheart, it's the internet. A/the response to your post isn't personal to you, but rather to the (many?) readers who scan through these threads, AND it's a message to myself. The internet - a mistake, but it's what we got.

Go Team Harris!!!

[quote] did you not see where I said I was going to give another $500 to the campaign?

Claiming on an anonymous message board that one donated money to a political campaign, with no evidence that it actually happened, is an excellent way for one to signal their virtue. Well done.

Further evidence

There’s more!

Harris holds 67-point lead over Trump among LGBTQ voters

[quote]Harris holds 67-point lead over Trump among LGBTQ voters

The methodology does not appear to be a random sample of the population. The respondents were from a preset panel with a few additional respondents “recruited”. About the panel: “We’ve developed our panel through partnerships with over 300 LGBTQ publications, websites, events, organizations, apps, influencers and social media throughout the USA and Canada.”

[quote] The HRC Foundation, in conjunction with Community Marketing & Insights (CMI), an LGBTQ+ owned research firm, fielded the 2024 LGBTQ+ Climate Survey online between August 8-18, 2024. CMI oversaw recruitment, with respondents purposefully sampled from CMI’s LGBTQ+ Research Panel, a proprietary panel of over 50,000 LGBTQ+ identified adults, to ensure a diverse set of respondents. Minor supplemental recruitment was conducted through HRCF networks for hard-to reach populations, resulting in 10 additional respondents. A total of 2,490 LGBTQ+ adults (age 18+) from all 50 states and Washington, DC completed the survey, with 2,432 respondents eligible for (and included in) analyses, due to having valid data on demographics and key analysis variables.

How do you randomly sample in this case, though? It's not like there's a central register of all LGBTQ people like there is for voter info.

The same way they sample for every other group. Duh

Voter surveys ask for self-identifying info —get it?

Tied in Arizona.

r389, did they present Photo ID Gay Cards?

[quote] did they present Photo ID Gay Cards?

Some didn’t have them because their gay cards were taken away by DL when they didn’t know sufficient about The Golden Girls or Joan Crawford.

Movement

[quote]Voter surveys ask for self-identifying info —get it?

But this wasn't extracted from a larger poll, this was specifically done on a subgroup of people. And you're not really allowed to keep those kinds of records. This is the part that you apparently don't get.

[quote]The same way they sample for every other group. Duh

Uh, no, you sample the subgroup and adjust/weight it after you've randomly polled people. There's no list of black people in PA that you contact when you're polling the state, to make sure that you have enough of them in your sample. D'oh.

Moar!

R396 and R397 are too stupid for words like “self-identify” and “voter survey.”

Did you write down your race and sexuality on your last ballot? Of course not. Did you write it on your voter registration? Of course not. If you were called on for polling, you were asked these questions and they were then matched up to exiting data points from the census and prior long-term national voter surveys, etc.—to reflect/adjust for the larger population.

Maybe you shouldn’t be voting at all, based on your “intelligence.”

*existing

This guy is a bit of a blowhard but has a lot of statistical analysis displayed to show how he arrives at his conclusions.

Hope this works.

Harry Enten is reporting that Kamala is still losing the electoral college to Trump.

From Dave Wasserman:

[quote]NEW: our interactive highlights just how tight of a margin play North Carolina is. If Harris increases Dems' share of white college grads from 47% to 49% and nothing else changes vs. '20, she flips the state – without flipping a single county

Quinnipiac University Poll

Pennsylvania: Harris 51%, Trump 46% / senate: Casey (D) 52%, McCormick (R) 43% / n=1,331 LV, MOE=2.7%

Michigan: Harris 51%, Trump 46% / senate: Slotkin (D) 51%, Rogers (R) 46% / n=905 LV, MOE=3.3%

Wisconsin: Harris 49%, Trump 48% / senate: Baldwin (D) 51%, Hovde (R) 47% / n=1,075 LV, MOE=3.0%

PA+6 in Quinnipiac is above the polling errors Clinton and Biden had there. Huge development.

R406 that's amazing RE PA!

And I KNEW we weren't up as much as some polls were saying we were in Wisconsin.

That state will be neck and neck.

Still, really good news.

r405 Baldwin is on notice. Pull through, gurl!

The fact that Trump isn’t 30 points behind is disturbing. The country is brainwashed.

[quote] The fact that Trump isn’t 30 points behind is disturbing.

People are always surprised to learn that a significant number of people think differently than they do.

R411, normally I'd say the thing but it amazes me that Trump has the support he has. Is he the worst person since Hitler? Sometimes I think so. By any measure he is so terrible his support should be confined to the lowest of the low, not half or more of the country. Boggles my mind.

Don't bother, that poster is pretending like it's still the '90s and both candidates are the same run-of-the mill politicians. Stealth bothsidesism.

Trump was elected President. Why be so surprised he still has lots of support. I get it’s hard to absorb but it shouldn’t still be such a shock. Also Trump isn’t Hitler. He’s a vile POS but comparing him to Hitler is OTT hysteria.

There was this little thing called the insurrection since he was elected in 2016. Nothing about Trump is normal and you calling people hysterical for pointing that out means you're directly contributing to the normalization of his undemocratic style of politics.

Not American here: what's QUINNIPIAC reputation? I don't want to be beside myself with excitement for a polling organization that's notoriously biased toward the Dems.

And agreed with above: knowing Trump, his personality disorders, and all the revolting things he's done throughout his life, the guy should be polling under 1%. I want him to lose the election and then die a slow, excruciating but very public cognitive decline into sheer laughable incoherence, drowning all those who voted for him three times (2016 might be excusable in my book, 2020 much less so, still voting for him in 2024 is totally inexcusable) to the bottom of the ocean, as close to the Mariana trench as possible.

Quinnipiac is a high-rated pollster.

[quote] as close to the Mariana trench as possible.

Melania’s trench is known as “poosy”.

RCP has now flipped to Kamala as the favoured winner as well, leaving Nate Silver's model as the one and only outlier.

Quinnipiac does lean Democratic.

Nate Silver is bought and paid for.

Why? Because Peter Thiel invested in the company he works for? Thiel has invested in a lot of companies.

R422, really? Ask yourself if Nate wants to piss off his primary investor. For that matter, would anyone?

Thiel invests in a company that Nate advises. I’m not sure how that makes Thiel his “primary investor.” Thiel also has a big investment in Facebook and Palantir. Do you think everyone who works at or acts as advisor to, those companies is afraid of pissing him off? Nate’s value depends on doing his job well, not lying to make Thiel feel good.

Take that —!

There’s a change in the air …autumn is coming, and Election Day.

Between Thiel’s dead toy boys and the fact that both gambling and cryptocurrency are organized crime magnets, I’d forecast a low likelihood of Nate living to a ripe old age.

Here’s the real issue.

R424 Thou doth protest too much, eh Pookie?

Peter Thiel has an obsessive laser-like focus on achieving certain political goals (Trump 2016, Vance Senate seat, Blake Masters, think tanks etc. etc.) and Silver (used to be) one of the most influential/respected political prognosticators. Selah.

The previous occupant of the White House is more like Mussolini than Hitler imo. But bad enough.

Mussolini ended up upside down. His wife too.

[quote]He’s a vile POS but comparing him to Hitler is OTT hysteria.

His own statements and actions make this less and less true every day.

[quote] People are always surprised to learn that a significant number of people think differently than they do.

No, it’s a surprise that so many people are mentally ill, you dingbat.

[quote] Mussolini ended up upside down. His wife too.

Italians don’t fuck around. They live for the drama.

[quote] RCP has now flipped to Kamala as the favoured winner as well

They have her leading with 2 points. She will definitely lose with that amount. She needs to be +5 to even have a shot at winning the electoral college.

How bad was Berlusconi? Trump level?

Whether he's right or wrong about Harris's chances, Nate Silver at R427 sounds like a miserable asshole.

A bald, old, fat miserable gay asshole.

[quote] Also Trump isn’t Hitler. He’s a vile POS but comparing him to Hitler is OTT hysteria.

Oh, he's Hitler, all right!

Is Silver not "538" anymore? Because 538 says Harris wins 64 times out of 100.

And Silver was wrong in 2016, if he's saying Trump. What a jerk. BTW, was he responsible for Clare Malone being fired? I'm still pissed about that.

Silver sold 538, R439.

[quote] Is Silver not "538" anymore?

ABC/Disney laid off a large share of the 538 staff in 2023, and Silver departed or was let go at that time. The new head of 538 is G. Elliott Morris.

The new Fox poll has Harris up two nationally, a three-point swing in her favor since its poll last month.

[quote]Not American here: what's QUINNIPIAC reputation?

Isn't Quinnipiac the poll that kept showing Biden ahead this year when other polls showed him behind?

Marist (A+ pollster, Sep. 12-17)

Michigan: Harris 52%, Trump 47% / n= 1,354, MOE=3.1%

Wisconsin: Harris 50%, Trump 47% / n=1,431, MOE=3.3%

Pennsylvania: Harris 49%, Trump 49% / n=1,754, MOE=2.9%

We’ve talked about this… Dump is putting all of his energy and money in Pennsylvania and Georgia. If he wins what he won in 2020 and those two states, he’s elected. Dems have to match him blow for blow in these two states.

With the added caveat that Georgia is probably lost already thanks to all the election interference. Which leaves PA. Which is exactly why I don't understand that poster who said she's doing too many rallies in PA.

But he may not win North Carolina.

She should have gone with Shapiro.

Thanks, progressives.

Walz is great, r448. Shapiro is where he can best help—as governor and leader of the Dems in PA.

Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall College, Sep. 17): Harris 48%, Trump 46% / n=890 RV, MOE=4.1%

If they lose Pennsylvania, R448, Shapiro will shoulder some of the blame for disqualifying himself as a possible running mate by making outsized claims for his vice presidency in a Harris administration.

[quote]Shapiro will shoulder some of the blame for disqualifying himself as a possible running mate

The antisemites in the party will bear the blame for vetoing his selection and causing Harris not to pick him.

Matt

The Harris campaign needs to step up its advertising game in Pennsylvania. I'm in PA, and I'm getting nonstop political ads on TV and YouTube. It's 3 or 4 Trump ads for every Harris ad. The Trump ads are all about the border and inflation, blaming Harris for every violent crime ever committed by an illegal immigrant and using outdated news clips about out-of-control prices. I roll my eyes because the ads are so over-the-top and unfair, but I can imagine them being effective with low-information voters, and PA is full of stupid people. Meanwhile, Harris's ads are very bland and generic, with her talking points about creating an "opportunity economy" where everyone can "get ahead." She needs sharper ads directly attacking Trump.

I think you’re simplifying the audience in PA R454. Those low information “voters” are only ever going to vote for Trump if they even vote at all. Kamala is offering real solutions to real problems of “normal” people. The folks who might’ve voted for Trump and realize they got nothing for it are who Harris needs to reach.

Not related to polls, and sorry if this has been mentioned, but I’m seeing photos of billboards in certain parts of Indiana, directed at women, that say something like “you can vote for Kamala” and then goes on to list the other pro women’s right candidates who are women and “no one will know”…I think that’s an important message for some women to see.

I think the views are decided. It's down to turnout. At this point, ads must be saturated. Does it become a risk of antagnoizing people?

I also think Harris needs to go to a Pennsylvania and similar and make a speech staking out the center... essentially delivering a message that says I want to be your president to lead the country you want and I understand that means preserving what works, tackling what doesn't, but always remembering this is a country where most people are in the center, they don't want government to do too much, they don't want government to do too little, they just want government to get it right. Every time I make a decision as your president I will ask myself: what does the center want?

I think a majority want to tip toward her or are willing to give her chance, but she's got to reassure them she can be trusted with the opportunity.

All these polls reflect a tight race, BUT the trends are far more favorable for Harris?Walz than the fascist fucks on the other side. The polls are showing a margin of error race that is very close. Whether the polls can accurately reflect what is really going on in the vote, is an open question. Pollsters rely on respondents to gather data and by far, those who respond trend older, much older. New voter registration and abortion on the ballot for the first time nationally, suggest there will be voters that are outside the reach of pollsters and their impact cannot be predicted.

Key takeaway, Harris is trending better than Dump and her numbers on the economy are improving.

Harris knows this is a tight race and is working her ass off, Shitler is wasting time in NY

Stay vigilant work and VOTE

And to R424 and your ilk who post here, do you really think it’s not clear to most of us that there’s a global cabal of angry techno-fascists that are hell-bent on using their billions (and their drooling fanboys) to bend society to their will? Vance? Really? Tweedle Trump and Tweedle Dumb Jr know that incel tech money is all that’s left for them since Putin had to spend all of his money on Ukraine and Hamas.

Nate Silver is bought and paid for. Are you? Or are you still waiting for that crypto investment to pay off?

Pennsylvania

WP: Harris 48, Trump 48 - Tie

Marist: Harris 49, Trump 49 - Tie

Emerson: Harris 47, Trump 48 - Trump +1

It looks like the PA polls have come back down to Earth.

R458, your ad hominem attack is too reminiscent of the MAGA creed. MAGAts go on attack against anyone who deigns to offer any view differing to any degree from their very narrow worldview. In the words of our "great First Lady," be better.

I’m going to disagree with r455, I think the ads do make a difference. Maybe not a huge difference but PA is so tight that every little bit counts. I’m in suburban Philly, which is probably the most targeted market in PA and therefore the country. I barely see ads for regular stuff, the ads for political stuff is overwhelming. And Dump has more ads running than Kamala. Maybe they’re making a big push this last month, but she has to run more, and effective, ads in PA. Dump is spending all his money in PA and Georgia, Kamala needs to match and/or outspend him.

I won’t be better, R461. I’m calling out an existential threat to democracy and free speech and not falling for your “both sides” argument.

Pennsylvania (WaPo, Sep. 11-16): Harris 48%, Trump 47% / n= 982 LV

And if you check out my posting history, R462, you'll see that I don't take a backseat to anyone in the belief that we're in an existential battle to save democracy, both here & abroad. But since I mightily endeavor to not engage in cognitive dissonance, I refuse to look at the world through a Blue MAGA prism, discounting out of hand any opinion/poll that doesn't fully support my position. Nate Silver is certainly not alone among professionals, including Harris partisans, in his belief that, with the structural EC advantages he enjoys, Trump is a (slight) favorite.

Re: the "generic/bland Harris ads in PA" I think the Harris campaign has been flawlessly run since July. The deciding demographic for PA is likely the "suburban women" in the Philly are (Bucks, Montgomery, Chester counties) and around Pittsburg. Those "she's not The Other, she cares about YOU" ads are tested to "work" with that demographic. We will see.

I agree r465. I’m a Bucks County resident (recently moved from Philly) and the Repukes are running scared. I belong to a bunch of Bucks Dems groups, and Harris/Walz signs are being stolen en masse. They can’t keep them in stock. Some people report back that their signs have been stolen 3-4 times.

Btw, whatever happened to that idiot, the Bucks County Yard Sign troll? Probably our stealing Harris signs and claiming that all the Dump signs mean a landslide.

More fuel for Trump's unraveling:

r457 here see r567 ^^^^^^ for examples of the types of trends I referenced

R468 is a time traveller.

Hasn’t that always been the case that some amount of Trump voters are people who view him unfavorably? I’m sure there will be some this election who view him unfavorably but will be voting against Harris.

Yes, many will hold their nose and vote for him. Happened with the evangelicals in 2016 and they were rewarded with Roe getting struck down. Same with those who loathe him but just want a tax cut.

[quote] Hasn’t that always been the case that some amount of Trump voters are people who view him unfavorably?

Correct, or so they say as much. They usually mumble something about not liking his "approach" but liking that he is "Strong" and that they trust him with the economy. But the facts are catching up on him and the realization that he is weak and terrible for the economy is penetrating as reflected in these recent trend line polls below

More Numbers from AP-NORC Poll

Tough enough to be president: Kamala Harris 59% Donald Trump 57%

Would change country for better: Kamala Harris 55% Donald Trump 46%

Would fight for people like you: Kamala Harris 54% Donald Trump 43%

Harris is beating him significantly on toughness, change, and the question: Who will fight for people like you? She is powerfully trending up on those questions.

On the economy she is improving and may match or exceed the Dumps perceptual advantae there.

Didn't dump only sign those tax cut so they would expire as soon as his imagined second term ended?

Someone explain these retarded “tax cuts” to me like I’m five.

Why do these assholes making $40k a year think that orange fool is going to cut THEIR taxes? His last “tax cut” scam set me back $2k a year.

Why do these idiots want to vote for him on tax cuts when he effectively RAISED taxes on people making less than $400k?

That’s fucking retarded.

[quote]these idiots ... fucking retarded

You've answered your own question.

People making 40K don’t pay any income tax.

Sooooo wrong r476.

Northwestern professor who follows prediction markets instead of polls is predicting a landslide for Harris (449 to 89 electoral votes) and he updates his numbers daily. Take it with a grain of salt, obviously, but in 2020 he was right about every state except Georgia.

Nebraska has changed their electoral system, so we're in big trouble if she only manages the bare minimum of PA, MI and WI.

R479, they haven’t changed it yet, but they might. I think Maine will change theirs if that happens.

Are you trolling, R479, or just plain ignorant?

Nebraska's governor wants to call a special session next week, they've intentionally waited until it's too late for Maine to change theirs in response. Only the dirtiest tricks from the GOP.

r481 Neither, but you seem to be uniformed about the latest developments in Nebraska.

*uninformed, even

[quote]But since I mightily endeavor to not engage in cognitive dissonance, I refuse to look at the world through a Blue MAGA prism, discounting out of hand any opinion/poll that doesn't fully support my position.

This overwritten fucking turd has the temerity to call me ignorant and a troll...

Mea culpa, R485. But next time it might behoove you to provide a link.

Whatever, bitch, I blocked you. Yammer away into the ether now.

I like how we are seeing POLLING QUESTIONS.

Not just Harris v Trump.

Stay AWAKE and VOTE!

R477 there is a thing called the standard deduction. Also these things called tax credits. Very, very few people pay any income tax at that level-unless they ate stupid like you.

You might want to learn about them, so you don’t pay income tax on your 40K gross.

Or just shut the fuck up? Your choice.

This thread has taken such a caustic turn.

Post some more of them polls, hoes.

There are two "let's follow the polls" threads. The other one is nice. Folks been farting in this one. Maybe after both threads are closed we can have one single "Polls III" thread... if you promise to behave.

Yeah, I don't follow the other one because this one was created first. Duplicate threads are DEAD to me.

I just went looking for the other one and couldn't find it.

That's the one flaw with DL. It's hard to find threads.

National poll (Outward Intelligence, Sep. 15-19): Harris 53%, Trump 47% / n=1,880 LV, MOE=2.3%

Can we have a thread dedicated to election polls? Part 2

See the difference?

r494 +6 is exactly what's needed to avoid another Hillary. Looking good!

r495 It's the same as this one. And I don't like that one particular authenticated poster in it, he's too cliquey for me, I'll stay here.

In the most recent 538 forecast update, Trump's chances of taking North Carolina are at 50.1% (+3.5). Let's hope this Robinson mess takes him down like a lead balloon.

Trump is 58% unfavorable, 38% favorable and still the election is close. What’s wrong with people?

Oh r489. Really trying to make a wrong headed point.

r499 "I don't like Trump, but I see his ads all the time on my TV here in PA, so I guess I'm voting for him?" I think people are genuinely this stupid.

You are linking to Mason Butts?! Seriously.

Just stop —learn about the practical reality of someone at that level …poor clueless you.

You’re right r501, people definitely are that stupid.

Oh r502, having to resort to insults now that she’s been proven wrong twice.

Zzzz

I know it's early still, but please, just a heads up--when this thread starts to fill up, please head over to the other poll thread to finish that off before we start a third one. It's a pain to have two going simultaneously.

My wife had a fight yesterday with her best friend from way from before kindergarten. Said friend hates Trump and readily admits he is a narcissist, but is a Trumper anyway. The cognitive dissonance is mind-boggling.

Jesus wept, r507.

Kick that “friend” in the cuntbone.

There’s no bringing up Jesus with either one of them, but my wife was holding herself back from kicking her in the cuntbone.

Question: When a poll says, for example 47% with a margin of error of +/- 3, that means the true number could be 44-50, but does it mean that there’s an equal probability of any point within that range, or does it mean that there’s a higher probability that 47 is correct with some lesser chance that the true number is on the edges of the range?

r510, there's a 95% confidence level that the true percentage lies somewhere between 44% and 50%, but it's not known where in that 6% range the true percentage is. Also, there is a chance that the true percentage could lie somewhere outside the range. The margin of error doesn't mean that 100% for sure the true number is within the range.

The Oprah shit will really hurt her in PA. Expert her to start slipping there. Pennsyltucky already views her as an elitist snob. I don’t know what she was thinking doing that trainwreck with celebrities kissing her feet.

[quote] Trump is 58% unfavorable, 38% favorable and still the election is close. What’s wrong with people?

Black liberal woman from California who’s tied to the most unpopular president in polling history, Joe Biden - and Snopes confirms that, so don’t start - that’s the problem. If Republicans had run a normal candidate Democrats wouldn’t stand a chance. You should thank your lucky stars they went with Trump.

What Oprah shit? What's happened now?

[quote] When a poll says, for example 47% with a margin of error of +/- 3, that means the true number could be 44-50, but does it mean that there’s an equal probability of any point within that range, or does it mean that there’s a higher probability that 47 is correct with some lesser chance that the true number is on the edges of the range?

There is a higher probability that the true value is closer to 47% than it is to the edges (44% or 50%) because the range of true values is assumed to be normally distributed (a bell curve).

[quote] What Oprah shit? What's happened now?

You missed the entire Kamala sit down special with a studio audience and celebrity after celebrity talking to her and kissing her ass? It was as tragic as Oprah’s Celebrity Ball shit back in the 2000s.

[quote] If Republicans had run a normal candidate Democrats wouldn’t stand a chance. You should thank your lucky stars they went with Trump.

I'm not so sure about that. Trump taps into a voting pool in battleground states out of reach to any other republican.

The only obstacle to Nebraska changing their electoral system is the future mayor of Omaha who is "as of right now" still opposed to the change in the special session next week. His vote is needed to reach the supermajority.

Honestly, the fucking soap opera that is this election...

As long as Democrats have to run a minority at the top of the ticket we're going to have an uphill battle. Sad but true.

Fun fact men are a minority.

[quote] Nebraska's governor wants to call a special session next week, they've intentionally waited until it's too late for Maine to change theirs in response.

Right. Under Maine law, any new law only takes effect in 90 days.

Atlantic writer McKay Coppins just said on MSNBC that over the past 60 years the answer to the question “Who do you think is going to win?” has been a better predictor of the ultimate outcome than “Who are you voting for.” Harris currently leads in those polls by 10-12%.

[quote]As long as Democrats have to run a minority at the top of the ticket we're going to have an uphill battle. Sad but true.

Have to?

We’re 2008 and 2012 uphill battles?

[quote] You should thank your lucky stars they went with Trump.

Point of fact r513, luck had nothing to do with it. The Republican Party didn't morph itself into a fascist personality cult on the back of "luck" Republicans chose to move into a cult of personality consciously and with willful intent, remaking itself in the image of a woefully ignorant blowhard, an inveterate liar, whose fictional resume as a successful businessman is easily debunked and whose abject incompetence is visible from space. They rolled the dice on delusion and have come up short.

[quote] and Snopes confirms that, so don’t start

Since you've reference Snopes, one can assume you have some investment in facts. As a factual matter, Trump is an indefensible vote, Anyone who is voting for Trump in 2024 is working overtime to avoid the obvious: Trump is a failure who has destroyed the Republican Party. It no longer exists, it is fascist movement with no animating principle other than what comes out of the mouth of an aged, deranged disordered inept fool who has captured the imagination of way too many Americans with a wicked brew of racism, weaponized rage and laziness.

[quote] that’s the problem. If Republicans had run a normal candidate Democrats wouldn’t stand a chance.

No, that's not the problem. The problem is there ARE NO "normal" republican candidates" They've been rendered extinct by the current republican/fascist party. And even if there were any "normal republicans" they couldn't win a primary in this environment.

[quote] You should thank your lucky stars they went with Trump.

Thanks, but there are other options. The recognition that Kamala Harris is actually a quality candidate all on her own even without the abject failure of trump for contrast. Check back with Snopes in 8 years and see what facts look like then.

I was about to post what R524 said about "normal" Republican candidates. A Romney, McCain, W, or Dole has no hope of advancement. Those types of Republican politician, in fact, are now supporting Harris or just lying low.

Do you like me now?

We need to collectively turn our backs to Silver after this election, maybe/hopefully he'll just disappear without all that attention.

Why?

He asks why, after dozens of comments in this thread alone detailing his unholy alliance with Thiel. Read up, boy!

He’s not “in an alliance” with Thiel because he advises a company that Thiel invested in. People are behaving like the mirror images of MAGAs

Notwithstanding, R529, Silver remains a Harris supporter. He made that clear in a Bulwark podcast.

[quote]People are behaving like the mirror images of MAGAs

You're really gonna die on this hill of this being a thing, aren't you.

It’s the first time I’ve mentioned it.

Poll of the Hoffa family shows 100% support for Black lady from Berkeley

Only in America!

[quote] Silver remains a Harris supporter.

A partisan cannot be trusted.

R532, go home, you’re drunk, and retarded.

^^ Different account, same poster. Par for the course for this site.

[quote]The Oprah shit will really hurt her in PA. Expert her to start slipping there. Pennsyltucky already views her as an elitist snob. I don’t know what she was thinking doing that trainwreck with celebrities kissing her feet.

A gentle reminder that this is the guy who goes around calling other DLers retarded. Every accusation a projection, not unlike with MAGA.

[quote]Winner-take-all push gets help of Gov. Jim Pillen, Sen. Lindsey Graham, Trump

Only yesterday, r481 called me ignorant and a troll because I posted about that Nebraska development before the big journos started bringing attention to it. Life comes at you fast...

Anyway, let's hope this fails because they'll never be forgiven if we end up with a tie. Which we won't.

You wrote that it had already happened. It hasn’t.

That would be welcome news if true, R543.

Whiny little Miss Lindsay is not going to convince a bunch of farmers of anything.

"Oh yeah...well we'll see about that..."

How pathetic that they’re trying this when their chief fact-based gripe about 2020 was that it was “unfair”for states to change the rules late in the game because of COVID

“A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines,” R548.

This is not the avoidance of foolish consistency. It’s blatant hypocrisy.

531 I watched that Bulwark podcast, and Silver 100% did not make it clear he supported Harris. In fact, he made a great big show out of dodging who he would be supporting each time Tim asked him, saying that it was important for his reputation that he remain neutral.

Mary!

Quite contrary!

Oops R551 was meant for R531