How confident are you that Harris-Walz will win?

It could go either way. Kamala enjoys an enormous amount of support from the media and the billionaire class (who are also donating to Trump's campaign behind the scenes, just in case), but Trump has a very strong grassroots movement behind him. Kamala is also allowing herself to be coached for once, so she hasn't repeated the 'I'm speaking' display of arrogance and is carefully adopting a softer, more conciliatory image. Trump is being his usual abrasive self and is resorting to throwing childish insults instead of implementing a well-organized takedown, and this will cost him in the future.

If the economy improves, Kamala will be able to score a win and the public will congregate around her. If it doesn't improve, she will have a much more difficult time presenting herself as a viable candidate, but it can be done. Trump doesn't have the favourable coverage that Harris has been given, so he actually has to work harder to appeal to independent voters and so far, he's squandered the golden ticket he was handled after his attempted assassination by acting like a boor, instead of a magnanimous, level-headed leader.

Time will tell, but in my opinion it will be a very contested race that Kamala will win, thanks to the fact that the media is, in its majority, fiercely against Trump. Moreover, he is both intellectually limited and incredibly arrogant, so he will refuse to manage the situation like an adult. Kamala, on the other hand, is an imbecile and a nasty piece of work, but she has so much support that it's almost impossible for her to lose - the only thing he has to do is pretend to be civil and allow Trump to shoot himself in the foot by being obnoxious, imperious and boisterous.

[quote]Kamala, on the other hand, is an imbecile and a nasty piece of work

🙄

Harris has no chance. The Harris Troll informs us that she is very unpopular and has no support within the Dem party.

The Harris Troll thinks that Newsom would have been a much better choice.

What a load of bullshit at r1.

Trumpers ALWAYS guard Trump from himself. Trumpers ALWAYS make excuses for him.

You're like the worst type of parent who, in front of their child, undermines the authority of every other adult around him who dares try to point out bratty behavior. Instead of holding your kid accountable, you blame others.

Aren't you exhausted?

Here. How about, for once, just admitting it - Trump's own fucking ignorant mouth and criminal behavior is why he's the biggest LOSER ever.

You didn't cause him. You can't control him. You can't cure him.

You are, however, enabling him. Stop.

Please join me in FFing the delusive troll at R1. Does he think we don't read the news?

It’ll be another close election. Really the Republicans should have this in the bag. But I see major Trump fatigue. He’s been on the scene for 9:years now and he’s gotten stale. . Harris is running a good campaign but I wish Dems had another candidate.She’s a light weight. I’d give Harris a 55% chance of the win.

R6's trolling is a lot subtler than R1's, I'll give him that.

r1 was going on about the "Democrat Party" in another thread.

MAGA tell.

I'm glad most of DL is cautiously confident.

I'll be more comfortable once the polls at the beginning of September show Harris ahead. By then, people will have made up their minds, and polls will be much more accurate.

Right now, I'm sick of reading about Trump's "falsehoods" in headlines from respectable papers like the NYT. They're lies, and headlines should call them lies...it's more direct and accurate. He is deliberate. "Falsehoods" allow wriggle room in people's minds.

R10, I feel optimistic that the Harris campaign can keep up the momentum through Labor Day. The DNC will give a new impetus, along with continued rallies and advertising. Trump will to flatline unless he can get some new material, either in policy (unlikely) or by some external unpredictable event that throws Harris off balance (possible). But he's having a lot of trouble expanding his pool of voters.

Polling is pointing toward a Harris victory. Diaper Don is getting more unhinged by the day, so he seems to have accepted that he's going to lose again.

I'm worried that TSF will dump Vivian and run Nimrata or Little Marco at the last minute while and they be at 52 percent in a week without a single interview.

His number one goal is to stay out of jail, I think he'd even step down if he was guaranteed immunity and cash. He is his ratings and they're tanking by the hour and he knows it.

The fact that a convicted felon who tried to pull an insurrection is probably going to be reelected should tell you something about the state of the US.

I genuinely believe they are a winning ticket.

People are soooo sick of Trump. He is utterly exhausting, & I do not believe most Americans are willing to go another round with this man and his lunacy.

It’s just too much, & bad for the soul & psyche.

They both have issues, here are my nonbiased thoughts on the campaigns:

The Trump campaign has been a disaster. He thought he had it in the bag that he would beat Biden. To Trump, it is inconceivable that someone is willing to give up power the way Biden did. I'm sure he had campaign staff that told him Biden would drop, but he didn't listen. If he thought Harris would be the VP pick, he would not have picked Vance to be his running mate. Clearly Vance was not vetted like a normal VP pick. Besides focusing on the economy and the border, Trump focuses on when she "turned into a black." He has no agenda and must now answer the age questions. Remember, 40 out of the 44 members of his cabinet have openly said he is unfit to be president.

Harris also has her problems. Besides getting primary votes, she was hand picked by Biden to be his successor. That rubs many people the wrong way, what has she done to become the nominee? While she is popular with the Tick Tock generation, she also has to answer on why the border and economy were not managed well for four years. Harris is going to focus on abortion. She has not had a press conference, making some believe she is hoping she can ride abortion and Tick Tock to become the president. Harris has a very liberal track record, which might make it hard to gain moderates and Never Trumpers. She picked Walz, who is folksy, but I am not sure if he could carry her the way Shapiro could have.

As far as foreign policy, Harris will most likely keep Biden's blueprints, but neither Harris or Walz have foreign policy experience. Trump is focusing more on America First, which resonations with a lot of average-middle class Americans who feel they lost their jobs overseas (in reality they lost their job to automation, but Trump doesn't understand that). Trump is very pro-Israel, while Harris will have to walk to tight rope between the traditional pro-Israel Democrats and the Tick Tock liberals who love her but and very Pro-Palestine. Trump says he won't let Russia take Ukraine, and China take Taiwan, but he doesn't have a good track record on keeping promises.

As of today, I think Harris will win, but it is August. The DNC is next week. Let's see if the Democrats unite around her the way the Republicans did Trump (which was mainly in part because of his assassination attempt). I think by September and the debates we will get a more comprehensive view of the election.

I also think it is important to think what will happen if she wins. Will he deny the election? Will we have another January 6?

Sorry to ramble! Elections are like my Christmas!

I also think it is interesting that the Never Trump/Traditional Republicans like Bush, Romney, McCain, Cheney, etc. have not endorsed Harris.

[quote]she was hand picked by Biden to be his successor. That rubs many people the wrong way, what has she done to become the nominee?

She won a majority of the delegates' votes, as well as receiving overwhelming support, by all measures, from every level of the party. Begone, troll!

R19 I am not trolling. I do not see how that is being a troll at all.

I think it is a fair criticism to say she did not compete in a primary. Who else were the delegates going to vote for? Who else could start a presidential campaign in July and realistically win in November?

You're repeating every Republican talking point of the last three weeks and speculating ingenuously on whether she can "gain moderates and Never Trumpers" and whether "the Democrats unite around her," as if these questions weren't being answered in real time.

[quote]she also has to answer on why the border and economy were not managed well for four years

She has: the bipartisan border bill was blown up by Republicans at Trump's orders, and the economy has been roaring.

Begone, troll!

I’m cautiously optimistic. The groundswell of enthusiasm and support for Kamala and Tim, combined with the Trump shitshow these past few weeks, gives me hope. That said, let’s not forget that Hillary was ahead in the polls in 2016 and we all know how that turned out. Vote, vote, vote.

[quote] popular with the Tick Tock generation

Oh, dear.

[quote] I also think it is interesting that the Never Trump/Traditional Republicans like Bush, Romney, McCain, Cheney, etc. have not endorsed Harris.

I don't know about the others, but it might be a little difficult for McCain to endorse Harris.

[quote] and the economy has been roaring.

The stock market is not the economy for every day Americans. The majority of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and have historic record debt.

More Americans may be struggling to make ends meet. A majority, 65%, say they live paycheck to paycheck, according to CNBC and SurveyMonkey's recent Your Money International Financial Security Survey, which polled 498 U.S. adults. That's a slight increase from last year's results, which found that 58% of Americans considered themselves to be living paycheck to paycheck.

Home Depot issues a warning about the economy

New York CNN — Home Depot says consumers are feeling crummy about the economy, and they’re dishing out less on major home renovation projects.

The home improvement giant, a bellwether of consumer spending and the housing market, lowered its sales expectations for the year. It said customers were spending less on home improvement projects, pressured by higher interest rates and concerns that the economy is getting worse.

Home Depot’s business is closely tied to the housing market, and high interest rates are putting a brake on housing turnover and consumers financing larger projects.

R27 I can't imagine what their angle could be...

R16-18 sounds like an AI digest of Republican misinformation and talking points—most of them from two or three weeks ago before the current race had gelled.

US small-business optimism increased to a more than two-year high in July on a more sanguine outlook about the economy and sales.

A key measure of wholesale inflation rose less than expected in July, opening the door further for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.

Mortgage rates tumbled to a 15-month low this week, prompting a flurry of refinancing activity.

[quote]she was hand picked by Biden to be his successor. That rubs many people the wrong way, what has she done to become the nominee?

You mean it rubs Republicans the wrong that that most Democrats don't care and it can't be used to foment party division.

R24 I meant the McCain family

Are you still here, R34? Begone, troll!

If Trump lost with the incumbency advantage in 2020, I'm convinced he will lose again this year.

In normal times, I would agree, r36. But in 2020 we were still largely locked down because of COVID. It wasn't really a normal election.

Had COVID never happened, I think there's a much greater change Dump would have won.

Maybe, R37, but then again elections had been going against the Republicans since Trump was inaugurated (starting with Alabama). His mismanagement of the pandemic (and general discontent) might have just been one more straw on the camel's back.

So, that’s the new approach of Repug Trolls, try and fail to strike a tone of reason and both siderism.

True, r38. COVID really was the straw that broke the camel's back.

Absolutely zero celebrating or displays of glee. You smile the day AFTER the election, never before. Everything about the Harris-Walz ticket and that of their supporters needs to be underdog behavior. Being an underdog is like raw meat to Americans. So give it to them.

I believe in this ticket and am signed up to work for it. How about you?

The polling of Trump vs. Biden showed us that Trump could have walked away with this election.

And he could have done it even against Chuckle Head Harris.

But he's such an imbecile, an expert at hanging himself with his own noose.

The more he talks, the better for Harris.

No way is he going to win this.

I still worry about Trump winning.

And what r42 writes is why Harris will, at the debate, let Trump hang himself.

He'll bring Enough Rope to do so.

I don't see Harris' debate strategy the same as others do. Not that I know better, but, most of the predictions about her strategy during the debate is that she'll "prosecute" him.

I don't think she will.

Oh, to be sure, she'll be prepared to deploy a number of strategies, including strongly correcting the record when he lies.

But I think Plan A by her is to just let his insecurity, rage, ignorance take over his mouth. He can't help himself.

In short, Trump will prosecute Trump. Harris will let him.

Love it, R44. Her strategy so far of not letting him drive her agenda suggests you're right.

Not a great economic indicator for the Trump trolls:

Bank of America CEO says research team ‘does not have any recession predicted anymore’

Good r46!

I thought I’d got all the trolls on my blocked list. R1 had slipped by, until now. Cry harder troll.

It's probably a sock, r48

Trump campaign had a chance to pin Kamala to the recent markets issue but couldn’t get the orange idiot on message.

The campaign is so “disciplined” when Trump is winning, but when it gets tough, no one can keep him on track. He’ll only go more off the rails about his imagined demons.

The Harris campaign is filling arenas across the country, staying on message about the issues important to voters, while calling out Trumps lunacy at every turn.

Trump is yelling at clouds while Vance is doing whatever the fuck he calls his epic brand of weird creepiness.

This race is winnable if Dems stay smart. The challenges after the election, if Kamala wins, will also be formidable. But winnable.

Exactly, R50. The Trump campaign is formidably disciplined as long as they only have to repeat one message ("Biden is old"). Some discipline!

Hence the quote marks, R51.

Another Floridian is out of the question, R13. The December electors in Tallahassee could not vote for both of them under the Constitution.

Fortunately, r13, he is stuck with Vance.

r53, Rubio can resign from the senate and claim residency in VA. Scaramucci is predicting that he will dump JD the day after the Dem convention. They have to do something to keep the race close in order to steal it, which is their plan. I just don't see them not taking dramatic action. They will do anything to regain power.

I posted this on a different thread, but it’s important:

The buzz on Tim Walz reminds me of the old American folk hero’s we would hear in our nation’s mythology, like Johnny Appleseed or Paul Bunyon, right?

Here is the site I trust most for election data. Note that in the Electoral College, they are in a dead heat. Kamala must take all blue states *and* MI, WI, PA, and we still don’t hit 270, so we will need even one more. GA? GA? We need you GA, always on my mind! NV? AZ? We need you!

And not to scare people (do not be discouraged, change your mindset to get fired up instead!) but the dead heat in the EC means that they really are going to refuse to certify so they can force a House vote, giving Trump the win.

We should start calling red state House members (say you’re a constituent!) and let them know that if they don’t demand a certified vote, they are pushing our country toward a Civil War, and we will demand that fullest recourse of the law is enforced against ALL traitors. Demand that they ensure voters that all counts will be certified. Then we need to be calling red state governors and telling them that if they don’t enforce the fucking law, we will ruin them, forever. We need a thread that has the contact info of Election Judges who are likely to refuse to certify, and we need to SWARM them. Now.

We also need to be calling our own blue state (if that’s where you are of course) Senators demanding that the DOJ feels the heat to be PRO-active on this refusal to certify bullshit. What’s the DOJ’s plan to enforce the law? What are governors doing? Can voters in red states sue for voter disenfranchisement? There needs to be class action suits, and we need to sue these fuckers for their personal assets. Tort action as voters.

If Kamala and Tim continue this momentum, yes, we are in great shape BUT the problem is the cheating traitors. They want to literally take it, right in front of us. Don’t let them. We need to stay 10 moves ahead of these fuckers, remember, these aren’t really smart people. But the pressure campaign on their refusal to certify needs to start *now* because I feel quite confident that that’s what’s coming. Dems are doing their best to rile up voters while still quelling violence. But if these voters pull this stunt, well, let’s just say, it’s not what anyone wants to see happen. I will never be ruled by force and domination, and I hope you feel the same. Never. Give me liberty or nothing.

Get ‘em, gang! Sic ‘em! Go go go!

[quote] Scaramucci is predicting that he will dump JD the day after the Dem convention.

I have no reason to doubt this.

"....But!....But!... what about those printed ballots and deadlines that we were screaming about when Biden withdrew?"

Will we hear the same from Repug operatives when their candidates change?

They won't dump JD. It will make them look weak and ineffectual - Trump just chose him last month. Besides, what effect is Vance having in this race? Not much - it's the head of the ticket - Trump - that's causing all the chaos. That won't change a bit with another running mate.

"Inflation Falls Below 3% for First Time since 2021"

Today's NY Times Headline.

Confidence is high. I repeat : Confidence is high.

[quite] The polling of Trump vs. Biden showed us that Trump could have walked away with this election. And he could have done it even against Chuckle Head Harris

There can certainly be debate about Harris’s quality as a candidate, but the chuckle head insult is brain dead. We’ve seen her campaign for a while now. She definitely in control of herself and far more in control of herself than most of the recent nominees. And she doesn’t spend much time chuckling to the extent she does, people seem to appreciate seeing someone who isn’t constantly filled with anger and hatred towards her country.

It’s perfectly to question her abilities but relying on a weird irrelevant Trump style insult isn’t a reasonable way to do it. That kind of thinking is why the race is looking less favorable for Trump.

[quote]There can certainly be debate about Harris’s quality as a candidate, but the chuckle head insult is brain dead.

No it's not.

She hasn't done one interview since becoming the Presidential candidate and is mostly reading off a teleprompter for her appearances. She is taking no questions. So how can you claim she's in more control of herself?

What we do have is an endless amount of examples of her erratic embarrassingly bizarre behavior in interviews.

Chuckle Head Harris is an apt description until proven otherwise.

[quote] While she is popular with the Tick Tock generation, she also has to answer on why the border and economy were not managed well for four years.

This kind of statement explains why the US deserves Donald Trump. First, the President has relatively little influence over the economy However, assuming that Biden and (even more improbably) Harris have any responsibility for the economy. what kind of deeply stupid and deeply spoiled electorate would be unsatisfied with this economy? I fully understand that not everyone is doing well in the current economy, which is why Democrats favor social programs for the disadvantaged, but in what insane world is an unemployment rate of 4.3% and an inflation rate of 2.9% a mismanaged economy? Just how stupid and spoiled have we become (with the aid of the Republicans) to think 1) any president has much control over these statistics, and 2) that those kinds of measure reflect any measure of hardship. I pray to God we never have a repetition of the Great Depression. Forty to fifty percent of the population would be hurling themselves from the windows.

Economic literacy is clearly in short supply, R62.

Economic literacy, r63? Try literacy in general!

[quote] She hasn't done one interview since becoming the Presidential candidate and is mostly reading off a teleprompter for her appearances. She is taking no questions. So how can you claim she's in more control of herself? What we do have is an endless amount of examples of her erratic embarrassingly bizarre behavior in interviews.

Apparently, it takes quite a lot to appear in control of yourself when giving prepared speeches since George H W Bush, George Bush, John McCain, and Donald Trump frequently sounded pathetic and confused when giving them. Maybe Harris has a better teleprompter? Or maybe she's just more accomplished.

As for the endless gaffes, it is strange that I have never seen them. I have seen clips of a few minutes of her laughing and making cringe-inducing remarks about Ukraine and Venn diagrams. Other than that, I have seen almost nothing. Perhaps you have a clip of an hour or so of her gaffes (since they are "endless") that you could provide? And I assume you can honestly attest that we could not assemble a day's worth of clips of Biden or the two Bushes making bizarre moronic statements or a week's or month's worth of clips of Trump doing the same?Is there a reason why you don't remember all of the astoundingly stupid things her predecessors have said during both scripted and unscripted settings.

I agree she hasn't done many unscripted interviews, which is probably strategically smart on her part, but we have seen speak many times in the past to attest to the fact that she knows how to think on her feet.

Dump & Madam President got nuthin on you R1😂

It was a pleasure to block the shit eating trump supporter @R1 into fucking oblivion. Be more convincing, and correct

Indeed:

R68 God. They are reaching back to the playbook of the 1980 campaign.

[quote]And I assume you can honestly attest that we could not assemble a day's worth of clips of Biden or the two Bushes making bizarre moronic statements or a week's or month's worth of clips of Trump doing the same?Is there a reason why you don't remember all of the astoundingly stupid things her predecessors have said during both scripted and unscripted settings.

Do you see what you do? How dishonest you are?

Please refer to my original post WHERE I WROTE: "But he's such an imbecile, an expert at hanging himself with his own noose. The more he talks, the better for Harris."

Still with the mindless scaremongering: "Import the third world - become the third world"

R70. Please read my post. I made a general comment. Are you disputing it only with resided to Trump?

At this point, I am fairly confident. People are sick of Trump and don’t want to put the country at risk by electing him again. I also think Trump will get increasingly unhinged, especially with his criminal sentencing coming up in September.

[quote]Third world

Are they campaigning from 1985?

The 2024 phrase for what used to be called the "third world" (a remnant from the Cold War era) is the "Global Majority" (the "Global South" is already dated).

R62 Maybe, but Ford, Carter, and Bush all lost over the economy

[quote]Forty to fifty percent of the population would be hurling themselves from the windows.

You say that like it's a bad thing.

Link to the latest David Pakman clickbait: Trump says he will FLEE to VENEZUELA if he loses

Rubio won't resign from the Senate, and re-establish residency in VA, just to join a losing campaign. It doesn't work that way.

Assuming Trump loses, he has every reason to start running in 2027, not saddled with Trump association baggage. Don't forget that Rubio is one of those NO EXCEPTIONS anti-abortion people, claiming he's being consistent, saying "People who don't agree, don't have to vote for me."

What a topsy-turvy political world we live in when Trumpers want nothing else but to have Trump SHUT-UP, PLEASE, but at the same time complain that Harris, who they ridicule because how she speaks and what she says, fails to speak-up.

They want to dictate terms to Harris (consistent with their taste for dictators) but she ain't letting you. She's serving her own timeline.

Call a Whaaaaambulance, Trumpers.

The border is Trump’s winning issue. Kamala is going to have problems explaining it away to the public. It’ll be the debate moment that hurts her.

R81Yeah, the border is Trump’s winning issue. But he'll even fuck that up with his crazy stream-of-thought ramblings.

Chuckle Head Kamala will cream him in the debates, and even if she doesn't, the media will cover for her.

[quote] This kind of statement explains why the US deserves Donald Trump.

Please don't burden the whole US population with the assholery of ONE LOSER TROLL whom the rest of us in this thread have already mocked and dismissed. And DO NOT FEED THE TROLL.

The border is not Trump’s winning issue. He tanked a bipartisan border deal, so that’s enough of a rebuttal. Plus he never built his stupid wall. Kamala can rebut Trump on every issue.

Somebody is really proud of the "Chuckle Head" nickname and determined to make it happen. I have to admit it is better than Kamabla. But only marginally.

[quote]He tanked a bipartisan border deal, so that’s enough of a rebuttal.

The Biden/Harris Administration did away with title 42. They did away with "Remain in Mexico". They squashed HR2 the Secure the Border Act. The killed the Laiken Riley Act (supported by 37 Dems.)

[quote]Somebody is really proud of the "Chuckle Head" nickname and determined to make it happen. I have to admit it is better than Kamabla. But only marginally.

Chuckle Head Harris vs. Donald Dump.

This is the world we live in.

It's the world you live in. Most of the rest of us don't.

I'll take the Chuckle Head over the Knuckle Head.

R88 That's our choice in November.

There is a troll on this thread. I've blocked him, but I can smell him.

Dump is doing another press conference tomorrow. He must think it will make him seem presidential. Hopefully it just ends up negative for him, again, due to crazy shit he says.

[quote]The Biden/Harris Administration did away with title 42.

I love how the right-wing has suddenly adopted "the Biden/Harris administration" after 45 months of referring to it as "the Biden administration" only.

It's today in 45 mins

NO ONE CARES what Dump says anymore.

He's the Madonna of politics at this point.

[quote] He tanked a bipartisan border deal, so that’s enough of a rebuttal.

You skipped the part that there was pork attached. This is going to backfire on her and Democrats. Mark my words. It’ll be the biggest debate bluster that everyone will remember.

I am cautiously optimistic for Harris. But never discount white-American racism and all-American misogyny.

[quote] It’ll be the biggest debate bluster that everyone will remember.

Did you mean "blunder," troll? Your hyperboles and malapropisms are almost at the level of your idol's.

All the naysayers keep comparing the 2024 Harris/Walz ticket to the 2016 Hillary/Kain ticket, when they should ACTUALLY be comparing it to the 2016 Trump ticket.

2015/2016 Trump didn't seem to have the numbers on his side, but he had excitement--he had magic. He had (what at least seemed at the time) the "refreshing" voice of a populist outsider--someone people weren't used to being offered as a political leader. Bernie Sanders was that for the left. That's why Hillary couldn't compare to either and never could have competed fairly against that energy.

In 2015 we were on the tail-end of an 8-year long business-as-usual, deeply establishment/ corporate, head-bangingly centrist Obama era. Occupy Wallstreet was all the rage. BLM and the general idea of systemic inequity in America was a burgeoning new movement. People were waking up to the realities of corporatocracy and were ravenous for bold populism and getting money out of politics. Trump, who presented himself as a give-no-fucks, self-made billionaire cowboy not beholden to donor interests scratched that itch for the right, whereas Bernie Sanders--fearless crusader against Wall Street and billionaires, who refused to accept super PAC money, host asshole fundraisers, or even comb his hair for a photo scratched it for the left. Hillary just represented a continuation of more of the same that we'd seen for the last 20+ years in Washington.

We now have that youthful, bold populism on the left in Harris and ESPECIALLY in Walz, whereas Trump has become the tired, corporate crony whose campaign is very clearly being dictated by larger, outside interests (The Heritage Foundation, Silicon Valley, etc.). He's no longer the outsider, he's the puppet. He doesn't even have the freedom to make his own outrageous opinions known (abortion, blatant, overt racism/misogyny, etc). "MAGA" isn't a revolutionary, exciting movement anymore. He's all out of tricks. His party and his donors don't even WANT him to be "Trump" anymore. He's been neutered by his new owners, and his base can sense that. HE can sense that.

The hunger now is for joy, community, decency, and optimism. People--democrats especially--are done railing against America--they want to love their country again. Cynicism is out. American pride (not exceptionalism, but pride) is in.

People don't actually vote for policy--they vote for feeling. And they want to feel what Harris/Walz is selling.

I’d say 83% and rising

[quote]People don't actually vote for policy--they vote for feeling.

Well, if that's true, under the current administration of which Harris is part of, polling tells us this (source: RCP averages):

Direction of country:

Right Direction: 25.1

Wrong Track: 64.9

Concerning this current Democratic administration, the "feeling" is not so great.

To kick the tires on the Harris/Walz situation: I think Harris needs to show she can debate Trump. She still needs to convince the American people. Clear platform, support workers, the middle class. I like to see her & Walz make a solid pitch for working class people and something or anything they can do about inflation. I guess I don't see them coasting to victory but as people have said, Trump is a deeply flawed candidate. It's all doable.

The real problem is Trump doesn't concede elections. I don't think he can bring himself to concede. They tried fake electors and attacking the capitol last time. What next? The results will be questioned and lied about at minimum.

[quote] We now have that youthful, bold populism on the left in Harris and ESPECIALLY in Walz

Well, maybe not so much the "youthful" part.

I think Harris/Walz have their work cut out for them. She has to prove she can debate Trump as ridiculous as that is and score a few points. The have to make a case to the American people including workers, working class people. I hope to see them say something convincing about the economy. We need to hear a platform.

The problem and thing I'm worried about is Trump doesn't concede. He'd rather destroy the country than admit defeat.

Trump is very predictable. In debate Harris needs to seem unbothered and confident and make strong hopeful ideas get across.

I'm not sure i agree that the task of debating Trump is all that formidable for Harris. Her main job is to frame everything he says as tired, "weird," or just laughable, and he's practically making that case himself. If she shows herself halfway able to make the case for her own policies with conviction and appeal—as she's already doing in her stump speeches—she'll be fine. The press will try to seize on any minor gaffe or omission in her case (not in his), but whether that will get traction in the polls is another story.

My $.02 at this point is that he'll "concede" in saying that her inauguration will be proof the system is fecked. Every non-Republican, and many of them, will want to be done with him.

I hope so R108. They've already tried attacking the capitol and fake electors.

Applause for r100. And to add, Trump is now running the "Hillary" campaign playbook from 2016 - the over-confident, Establishment/insider candidate, refusing to get out and travel to key swing states since they believed their early poll results. Look how that turned out for her.

[quote]Concerning this current Democratic administration, the "feeling" is not so great.

What you and other Republicans aren't grasping is that Democrats and Independents don't equate Kamala with "this current Democratic administration." They're smart enough to realize that VPs have virtually nothing to do with an administration's policies.

The Democratic Convention will be here in Chicago next week. VP is gonna define herself and tell us why she is the better option. Harris must say how she will keep us safe, help us prosper and lead us into the future..... Trump was elected in 2016 cuz incumbent parties rarely win the Big Chair. He will be all negative. Harris must talk about the economy and abortion. Keep race out of it. Do not take Trump's bait.

Why does MAGA always sound defensive and aggressive, even to interviewers from Fox, Newsmax, etc. Like, why not talk at a normal level and have a conversation with the interviewer.

Nutjob RFK Jr promised he'd drop out and endorse Kamala if she gave him a cabinet position. She said talk to the hand.

Can't post the link here for some reason (is Muriel mad at the WaPo?), but google "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. tried to meet with Kamala Harris to discuss Cabinet job."

I saw some of his “economic” speech today in NC and he seems like a doddering old fool. He’s never rebounding.

[quote]and he seems like a doddering old fool

Surely, R115, you mean that Mr. Trump's remarks ranged widely around his main topic, leaving few of his favorite themes untouched.

[quote]Democrats and Independents don't equate Kamala with "this current Democratic administration." They're smart enough to realize that VPs have virtually nothing to do with an administration's policies.

I don't think most Democrats are as stupid as you are.

"Susan Rice: 'Bizarre' and 'offensive' to say VP 'wasn’t integral architect' of Biden-Harris agenda"

Trump’s advisers must know he will never win. But of course they will stay on the payroll and never tell him. He’s not only a terrible candidate but people hate him. They can’t stop the massive turnout that will mobilize in November to defeat him.

I admit I was very reluctant for Biden to drop out of the race after the debate. In part because subsequent speeches and interviews showed him in a considerable better light. But mainly because I did not expect the campaign to transition to Kamala Harris so successfully. Biden had the incumbency factor which is significant in a presidential run. But so far the Kamala campaign is running better than I thought. Keep in mind that the polls are rarely a reliable harbinger of election outcomes today.

[quote]He’s not only a terrible candidate but people hate him.

He is a terrible candidate but as far as favorability goes, Kamala isn't as loved by the public as you might think....at least as far as polling shows.

538 Favorability: Trump 43.3%. - Harris 44.2%

I'm somewhat confident, but concerned.

I’m a lib-Fag-dem but I know 2024 is Hitler taking Germany and more.I will vote Kamala/Walz but Trump has already won.

I think so too. Elder gay here so not so bad.

Remember, Nikki Haley said that the party of the candidate that drops out first will win the election.

I think she's right.

R120 That's a bit misleading. Trump's UNfavorability rating is 8.5 while Kamala's is only 3.9.

For every 2016 flashback, I repeat that since then, 20 million baby boomers have died and 40 million young people have reached voting age. It's a very different electorate since then.

R126, come sit with me friend.

I want the Harris campaign to lean in on talking up big crowds. It makes him nuts and brought out his craziest and stupidest Truth Social post all week.

R126. And the republicans have pretty much lost every national election since 2016.

r100 is extremely astute. Even though I'm a solid Hillary supporter and will forever mourn 2016 and believe she would have been the greatest president of my lifetime (yeah, I know - MARY!) she had her progressive cred stolen by Bernie (who was supported by Putin) and was seen as "too establishment" and she did not campaign as hard as she could have - she should have listened to Bill instead of the worthless Mook. Trump was a also more than "exciting" - he was a celebrity of long standing, which counted for a lot.

R104 "Youthful", as it pertains to politics, has nothing to do with actual age. It's the merging energies of idealism and rebellion--that is the spirit of youth. And it's exactly what the Harris/Walz ticket has masterfully crafted their entire campaign around--literally branding themselves the "Joyful Warriors".

[quote] literally branding themselves the "Joyful Warriors".

Bitches stole my line!

[quote]More Americans may be struggling to make ends meet.

Nikki Haley is not someone to believe-about anything. Democrat's will again believe Trump can't possibly win and not bother to vote. Congratulations Fuhrer Trump.! First order of business-round up the fags.

I think it's looking better for Harris every day.

And the better it looks, the deeper the hole becomes that Trump has to climb out of to win.

This is a good summary of why voters are sick of Trump.

Trumper's don't care what Dump says or does as long as he's still breathing. They plant shit like "Trump days are numbered" so Dem's get complacent-don't vote. All you Mary's believe this shit.

There are enough Republicans who will never vote for Nikki, they do not trust her. Moreover, newly-cred'ed het hubby Tim Scott, as I understand it, hates her. She's not going anywhere.

“If Harris wins this election, the result will be a Kamala economic crash,” Trump told a North Carolina crowd yesterday. “A 1929-style depression!"

r139

Her campaign has hinted that she will address the role of corporate price gouging in inflation: $8 boxes of cereal, $20 fast food meals. I’m quite intrigued to see how she handles this, as the old narrative, “your wages are up, you can afford it,” wasn’t working.

The post Covid infrastructure and investment legislation could have been better planned for the inflationary consequences of putting that much money into the economy all at once, and while inflation was worldwide, it was the US where the optics of consumer pricing gave the Republicans a pretty big stick to beat Biden with. Fortunately they’ve been so incompetent the damage hasn’t been persistent. If she can reverse Uno card inflation and immigration the way they did age and competency, then they’ve got this.

Don't expect the corporates to retreat without a fight; they will squeal and sic their media lackeys on her and Walz. The battle is between Harris and ADM, Tyson, Kroger, McDonald’s, Kraft Heinz, the NYT and WaPo media cunts. Trump is just their proxy.

I don't see how this will work, but it's good politics:

There was actually a VERY comprehensive Price Gouging prevention Act introduced by Elizabeth Warren in both 2022 and 2024. As you can imagine, it's seen no movement. Sen Bob Casey also introduced a Shrinkflation Prevention Act as well (also doubtful it goes anywhere). Republicans don't actually WANT to fix anything about the economy, they just want to bitch about it.

There's definitely a way to legislate it and even prosecute it. It's just a matter of whether the Republicans will actually play ball. They love complaining about the way unfettered corporate greed fucks our economy when there's a Democrat to blame for it, but when it comes to applying a remedy that would actually put corporations to task, suddenly they're in the wind.

Cautiously optimistic. We know Trump’s voter turnout has been underestimated in two elections already. Even with the favorable polls, the race is still very close. We have to keep fighting.

VOTER’S ARE NOT SICK OF TRUMP!!! He is their savior. ‘’Saviors don’t come in perfect packages’’ say many trumpers. The US still doesn’t know how many haters it has AND they lie-many lie because family,job etc. He could/will win electoral vote while Harris wins popular-just like Hilary.

Important Tea at link.

No, corporations should *not* be allowed to price-gouge on food, or any other household necessity actually. Fuck ‘em! Their greed is their downfall. Poor people eat like shit (partially) because the garbage food is what’s cheapest. That’s fucking bullshit. I want to see our food supply rival Europe. Why NOT I say? Let’s elevate our quality of life while the window is open!

💯 %. Even more so than Hillary, who I love, and would’ve made a wonderful president. Trump is dead meat. Dead I tell you. Kamala is getting endorsements left, right, and center, and trump is deservingly oozing KFC into his diaper.

Can’t wait till the election is over, and this colossal insufferable scumbag faces his remaining trials.

The anxiety between now and November might kill me.

Woke up with this observation: Trump and sycophants are commenting on and making fun of the way Kamala Harris laughs. Because that’s pretty much all they have BUT they also ‘’poked’’ fun at Hilary for the way she laughed-because that’s pretty much all they had. Laugh Kamala Laugh-all the way to the White House!

R148, I said years ago that if I have to go through another one with Trump, it’ll kill me. Well, it is! I don’t know how I’ll make it.

Trump’s former supporters saw how poorly he handled COVID among other things.

He has alienated huge demographics of people (healthcare workers, people who work in education, single cat ladies, etc). I know he still has a following but I don’t see that being enough for him to win.

People were sick of him in 2020 and they’re really sick of him now. Too much baggage, he has a weird family and JD Vance certainly isn’t helping.

She won’t win.

One thing that continually baffles me about Trump’s base is that they are an America-first, insular crowd, but he has done so much to put U.S. security at risk, surrounding himself with shady characters who flatter him, showing classified documents to visitors to Mar-a-Lago, business deals with Russia and Saudi Arabia that guided his foreign policy. Shouldn’t that be the kind of stuff that they’re against?

Anyway, I’m not a Harris fan but I’m feeling cautiously optimistic. It seems she’s being kept slightly silent, mostly letting herself be seen and not heard. There really isn’t any upshot to her doing more speaking…she’s arrogant enough that she’ll put her foot in it.

[quote] She won’t win.

Ok. r152, in the spirit of classic formal argument thinking process which teaches "If you don't know your opponent's argument, then you can't know your own." I'll bite and ask, pray tell, why "She won't win"?

Well? Hmmm?

r154 I have that poster blocked, and I only block trolls, so I'm going to say: troll.

Jesus Christ, there can't be divergent opinions here? Someone thinks she won't win. So?

Personally I think she will.

Anecdotal evidence, but two nearby nutcases who have been flying trump flags year round since 2016 taking them down only foe Christmas decorations have replaced them with RFK Jr signs. There is one lonely holdout on my regular route who invested in a Trump Vance flag and still has big Fuck Joe Biden flag so he's handling it well.

If you're looking for divergent opinions, we have 900 pages of them.

Some small minded call them taking away your freedoms, but it's just a difference of opinion

R158 What does the opinion that Harris won't win have to do with Project 2025?

I can't wait to see how much the convention bounce helps her.

Sometimes I believe she can’t win because I need to be prepared for Trump return.I’m not rich like a lot of you guys who will survive no matter who is in the White House.

I am growing more confident by the day.

Increasing confidence in Harris can so easily lead to voter laziness-repeat of Hilary loss. ‘’Trump can’t possibly win’’

Harris doesn't just need to win. She needs to win decisively and with a significant electoral college vote spread. In 2020 Biden got 306 and Trump got 232. That is a 74 point lead. If Harris can at least match that and perhaps better it, there will be less ability for Trump to challenge any results, and it will be much more likely that the Republican Party will finally throw Trump to the side.

Don’t count your chickens bubby.

‘’Repugnakins’’will never part with Trump.They won’t have to. This joyful convention/speakers will create laziness and an assuredness of winning over Dump. ‘’Trump can’t win’’ no need to vote-we got this. 2024-Americas Last Presidential Election.

We are the underdog — understand that! There are numerous and dangerous factors as play, our system is about to be tested like never before. Mike Flynn has been riling up pods of terrorists to attack the Capitol again, they do plan to fight. I believe Biden will need to call in the National Guard early this time, and I won’t be shocked if there is an assassination attempt on either Kamala or Tim. They’ve been radicalized, and Trump continues to rile them up even more. The biggest problem of course is Trump. I am praying Merchan locks him up on 9/18, he’s such a fucking fat loser who can’t stop shitting and farting. Disgusting piece of garbage.

But as I said, we are the underdog, and you need to understand that.

You can say that there is still a lot of opposition without lowering yourself and spreading Trump-level dystopian fearmongering.

We need to fight for a hopeful future. Not idealize a doom and gloom future

Thank you R167 this is as important as our joyful convention and needs to be echoed.

R168 didn’t vote Hilary 2016- much too busy or wait-wait: I was out of the country…

Feeling better all the time.

That Kamala better win. I need my crazy check. How else I’m gonna get my weed and my blow-go Dems. Uz jus gotz ta win…

R168, I’m not fear mongering. How your emotions respond to the facts of what they are planning to do is actually not my problem, it’s yours, but no disrespect to you.

The best thing we can do is tell people the truth so Americans are prepared, and there are many ways to channel your energy. I am doing that by volunteering to canvas.

Yes, get high off the hope and joy, there’s nothing wrong with that, we deserve it after the last ten years! But don’t stick your head in the sand. Fascism is here. We have to work hard to defeat them, it has to be a massive massive victory.

And then she just flounced out of the room…

Keeping my fingers crossed. Tightly.

You and me both, r171

Hey! R167! Worry Wart! … Chill the fuck out.

Well, the oligarchs are clearly worried about her momentum:

Watch Mellon file suit against Trump for fraud and recovery of his millions if Trump loses.

Seriously, that’s the kind of bizarre stuff I have no problem anticipating may happen.

God, to be so rich you could waste a hundred million on Trump. Staggering.

A hundred million is supposed to be a lot?

The current polls (and GOP shenanigans) notwithstanding:

Biden won by over 8,000,000 popular votes in 2020. I just cannot see how Dump makes up for that. Where is going to find those votes? How many people who voted for him in 2020 have died? Will millions who voted for Biden in 2020 suddenly vote for Dump this time around? Add to that the momentum behind Harris's campaign, and it seems highly improbable to me that Dump wins.

He makes up for it if he pulls some of the states Biden won. It's never, never, never about the popular vote.

That's what MO said last night. And that's why they keep saying we're the underdog. We probably are. And we better run like it.

Among the many astonishing things about the Trump campaign is his complete lack of any sort of reaching out to any part of the electorate that didn't vote for him before. He's dug even deeper into positions that his supporters like

I can't think of a single reason why someone who didn't support Trump before, would support him now

You can bet your last dollar that if the Democratic party were winning presidential election with Electoral College advantage and a minority of the popular vote, there would have been massive outcry and a change to how we determine election results. Democrats do not have the gumption to make any such changes.

[quote] Among the many astonishing things about the Trump campaign is his complete lack of any sort of reaching out to any part of the electorate that didn't vote for him before. He's dug even deeper into positions that his supporters like

I don’t think either party has changed its views in any noticeable way from 2020. The views of the Democratic and Republican parties are what they are and with each election both sides try to get people to agree with those views. The one that gets enough people to agree and wins the Electoral College wins.

I have faith that Kamala-Walz will win most of the blue wall states and some states in the sun belt. No one can get complacent but she is trending up and Trump is completely falling apart. Luckily for us, Trump and Vance are awful candidates.

I get some folks not liking or wanting to vote for Democrats. But man, you must really want to wallow in shit if you’re voting for Trump and the GOPee. They have zero to offer except the promise that they’ll harm the people their voters love to hate (plus the fresh hell Project 25). What an awful way to look at this country and the world.

If Dump wins, he’s going to play golf, eat steak with ketchup and sniff around for new pussy.

He’s gonna leave governing to the likes of Vance and the idiots that proposed Project 2025.

He will zero fucks for any American and will look to just enrich his own pocket and goof off 24/7

[quote]I don’t think either party has changed its views in any noticeable way from 2020. The views of the Democratic and Republican parties are what they are and with each election both sides try to get people to agree with those views.

Overturning Roe v. Wade and the ensuant shenanigans in red states shifted things. In practice, the GOP changed its views on abortion -- they've gotten more extreme, and state legislatures have demonstrated the willingness to implement draconian bans.

That is a huge variable in 2024.

R190 Getting SCOTUS to kill Roe v Wade decision was a Republican wedge issue for over 40 years. Neither the Christians or the conservatives cared or had an opinion on the issue until the Heritage Foundation decided they want to make it a moral and political issue for their conservative platform. Now that they managed to install justices that lied about their views on Roe v Wade during their congressional hearings, they were willing to overturn 50 years of a woman's right to choose. But the backlash has been massive and a more significant blow back than they ever anticipated. They are basically the dog that finally caught the bus and wish it were still an pending issue.

Kamala is building a winning coalition of labor, working class, middle class, youth, women and minorities. Plus college educated, seniors and independents.

Trump seems to only going for MAGA, billionaires and gamer bros.

All presidents are shit but we need to remain a democracy-Go Kamala!

Washington Post: "Kamala Harris reports massively outraising Trump in July." [Muriel is no longer allowing Washington Post links.]

Anyway, this HAS to be good news for Democrats. People who are inclined to donate must surely be inclined to show up at the polls, no?

Post-convention, how are we feeling?

Amazing convention and her acceptance speech was one for the ages. Wow.

It's sickening that we needed to assemble the amount of political talent, facts and hoopla over the last 4 days to persuade Americans to reject the small, dangerous, pitiful ignorant person that is Trump.

In contrast to Biden, she has a good chance. Trump lost his outsider charm and entertainment value; this will cost him votes. President Harris it will be. Not the worst. Hey, you survived two Bushes!

I think Trump will lose in a blowout and then he'll tweet out that he's the real commander in chief and command the military and all domestic militias to start a civil war. 3 percenters and oath keepers and various groups like that will start attacking government facilities. I don't think the military will have many issues shutting down its own traitors, and our militias are pathetic compared to the IRA so I don't think it would be nearly like the troubles either. It will be an ugly time, but hopefully a reckoning to rid ourselves of these terrorists once and for all. I could also see him instead demanding that a coalition of states secede instead of going the military coup route.

I'm feeling that even if the Democrats lose (and clearly at this point they have an excellent chance at winning), they've suddenly emerged as a broad, powerful pro-democracy coalition that at the very least will be a better bulwark against Trump and Project 2025 than we had in 2016 and the years since. It will be horrible, but the resistance will continue.

The Democrats didn't really talk about money. Money. Money, money, money is what Americans care about. How you gonna put more of it in my pocket?.... the Karen's of suburban America will vote for Harris cuz of Abortion. And like Obama said, Trump's act has gotten stale. I'm 85% certain Harris will win.

They might not have used the word "money" that often, R201, but they definitely talked non-stop about putting money back in the hands of regular people—shifting the tax burden off the middle and working classes, creating jobs, creating and "opportunity economy," etc.

[quote]the Karen's of suburban America

The Karen's what, dear?

I'm like R201. I think the focus needs to be on abortion, voting rights and Project 2025, along with a good dose of optimism. They need answers on the Court but not a ton of talk on it, because that could sound way too radical. They do need better answers on the economy. That's established. They are very fortunate inflation is falling and the Fed will start cutting. I don't think the economic management questions are insurmountable, but it is a vulnerability, rightly or wrong. Perception is everything. Focus on the tax cuts, clearly messaging Trump's billionaire tax cuts are not going to be renewed, that should do it. What they need is ideas that force the Republicans on the defensive.

The contrast between Harris and Trump is stark, Trump will continue to mentally and emotionally implode - imagine his sentencing - and if they can continue to move the needle, then its get out the vote. It's all doable, I think more likely than not, but it cannot be taken for granted, either.

Sorry, R203. My phone screen is broken and didn't catch that apostrophe.

You are forgiven, r205.

Tim is evil and Kammie is a drunk.

[quote] They are very fortunate inflation is falling

"Fortune" had little to do with it; their own *Democratic policies* have given the American economy a softer landing than most other countries have had.

r207 posting from right-wing Twitter ... TOTALLY credible.

If Kamala and the Dems win this election (I can't bring myself to say "when" just yet) one thing that will be so delicious it just HAS to be fattening is the sight of Chief Justice Roberts, an author of the infamous immunity case that sided with Trump, swearing her in, knowing now that she is the one who gets to take that broadened immunity out for s spin!

This is (so sadly!) a very difficult uphill battle for Republicans. They gutted their party because they thought Trump could substitute for a political machine, which was true only one time. They can’t deliver a unified message because they only agree on supporting a trainwreck candidacy. The prospect of post-Trump politics should be thrilling to Republicans, but it would only thrill the ones who are not running anything.

We all watched January 6th. It can't be overstated the dangerousness of Trump and his followers.

That said, on my part, and counterintuitively, if Trump loses in November, especially by a large voter turnout, I'm not persuaded that the Flying Monkeys of MAGA will act up again.

I think it's more likely they'll go out with a whimper, not a bang.

As I've pointed out before, for all that criticism that Merrick Garland has coming, the DOJ has prosecuted many of the insurrectionists and they're in federal prison right now.

I think most of the die-hard MAGA crowd will stick to their bitching about a "rigged" election and let it go at that.

Oh, to be sure, not that they don't nurse daydreams of a Civil War. They do. and yes, they have guns. But from my view of them by watching Trump rallies, they're old, they're out-of-shape, and whatever younger adults they have aren't too keen on federal charges.

Remember that scene in "The Life of Brian"? That's the MAGA crowd after Trump loses. Whining and talking a game of popular uprising while eating popcorn and watching NASCAR.

Watch-Wait-Vote. Not much else I can do.

Keep an eye on the Republicans' ground game. Right now I'm seeing reports that they're outnumbered by Democratic offices in the swing states. If that's true, the Democrats have an advantage not clearly reflected in the polls. Think of 2008.

r214, You're right and Trump has to be causing his operatives to tear their hair out.

I watched his NC rally the other day. I nearly fell out of my chair when he stated (paraphrase): We don't need a ground game to get out the voters. They're already there. We need to stop Nov. 5th cheaters.

Besides just being plan wrong about not gearing up a ground game, the Old Con Man Trump is continuing to condition his voters to believe the Democrats cheated.

That "cheating Dems" thing is diabolical in its purpose.

In addition to undermining and slurring honest poll workers, it also allows him to avoid acknowledging a loss, at thing he'd do when I can take a running start, flap my arms and fly over Lake Michigan.

After watching the DNC convention coverage Wednesday and Thursday, I was optimistic about the future of the United States.

But then, reality bitched slapped me in the face: there are still approximately 80 million Americans who think Donald Trump is the second coming of Christ.

R207= the deranged outburst of a sad and scared loser, in steady decline.

Can’t wait to stick my fork in you on November 5, because you’re more than cooked. You’re overdone.

According to another DLer, there isn't money for a ground game because donations to his campaign are now grounded in his attorney's pockets and Trump family bank accounts.

Yes, R215, Trump keeps betraying a strategy of losing the popular vote and then either winning the electoral college (unlikely at this moment, given Harris's momentum in the swing states) or tying with her and going to the House or the Supreme Court (à la 2000). An iffy strategy and one that shows the Republicans' contempt for government by the people. We need to swamp them on election day.

R216-it’s so true. Convention was on message but basically a pep rally which can lead to complacency. I’m so worried. Dems are busy people and even mail in voting can be a hassle for parents working two-three jobs/school etc.

How did R207 get in here?

Something I never see addressed is how can he even qualify for a security clearance now? An insurrectionist and a felon? And whatever his sentence is on Sep. 18...no, he probably won't get prison or house arrest (though he should), but he won't get a slap on the wrist, either. If he is given probation, how the hell would that work? A president that can't go anywhere without permission from the judge? Would he have to wear an ankle monitor?

It’s still an 50/50 election. Also the Senate is set up so Dems are sure to lose control unless Harris wins big. We’ll see if Trump continues to self destruct.

Will be allowed to vote in Florida, a state that disenfranchises convicted felons?

I am very confident that Harris will win the popular vote -- even more so after the flawless convention. But the Electoral College is all that matters, and as of today, it's a dead heat. Pennsylvania is the most pivotal state. Whoever wins it will almost certainly win the election. As of today, Pennsylvania is a tossup. Hopefully, Harris will get a post-convention bounce over the next week. But that bounce could fade. Harris has the momentum, but this will be a very tight race.

We can talk til we’re blue in the face about the momentum. But the smart strategy stays in the underdog mindset. Do not put into the cultural water that Dems “got this” because I promise you, they don’t “got this”. The Rethugs are going to truly fight the certification, which is an act of war as far as I’m concerned. Even if her lead is 10+, you cannot count on those voters showing up. You don’t smile before the election, you smile the day after.

The *only* hope of a semi-peaceful outcome is to overwhelm them at the ballot box. Yes, Dems have teams of lawyers preparing briefs right now, and yes, I *think* our judges will uphold the results again. But the margin must be overwhelming. And yes, they are going to encourage violence and renegade crazies too, the full Monty is coming. We are about to finish the Civil War once and for all, and Kamala is doing all that a leader can do to keep it peaceful.

We do have the right momentum. Her speech was without a doubt the greatest political speech of my life, and it may go down as the greatest speech in American history — it was radical, visionary, strong, and filled with (healthy) righteous anger. But we do all need to go work for this. If you don’t live near a swing state, then you can do calls and postcards. We really need to get volunteers working on Montana because John Tester currently is about to lose that seat, his seat is absolutely critical! I live in Chicago, I’m going to canvas with a friend in WI.

I would like to see a huge push in GA and NC, they are within reach, as are AZ, NV. PA and MI are the motherlode. PA is the key, for sure. So pick a state, pick a candidate you care about, and get to work. As Tim says, we’ll sleep when we’re dead!!!! I love you all. America is not dead, we were just asleep for too long. Kamala woke us up.

Hoping that after nearly 4 years, the FBI has been closely monitoring the big MAGAt crazies still out there who could do some harm

Oh, aintcha heard, R222? Trump has immunity for any lawbreaking he did as part of his official duties (btw I'll decide what's official and what's not).

Were we asleep when Biden won in 2020? Or Dems won House? . So much hysteria it’s as if Dems haven’t controlled executive branch the past 4 years. I get it, no one wants to see Trump back. But still…

But still what MAGAt? r229 Trump deserves a second chance? Project 2025 has some good points? They aren't as bad as they seem?

Was about to post that I wholeheartedly agree with Della at r197 and r212, but then I agree with everything she's posted in this thread so we'll leave it at that. I also like what r225 /r226 put down: we CANNOT TAKE OUR FOOT OFF THE GAS PEDAL. Not for an instant, not until well after Election Day.

It's all about those 6 swing states, but especially WI, MI and PA. PA is KEY here. It's a must win. Yes, if Harris gets NC or GA and AZ it might not be needed, but we can't risk it. Biden's Blue Wall must hold, the work has to continue until Election Day and probably beyond that.

I think we have a fantastic ticket but I remain skeptical that the American public will do the right things.

Great article at the link at r232, thanks for sharing. We need to remain optimistic and enthusiastic, but committed as hell and working full stop right up until Election Day. The polls aren't necessarily useful here.

R222 May I? "Would he have to wear a cankle monitor?"

[quote]Also the Senate is set up so Dems are sure to lose control unless Harris wins big

I really wish we could get a Howard Dean 50 state strategy going. Is there even a plan as to how to win the House and Senate at this point?

So many democrats are laser focused on Trump and not focusing on the entire Republican party that's been gutting our country for forty-four years and who stood by and allowed Trump to do whatever he wanted. This isn't the problem of one person, this is the problem of a political party that got crazy enough where this person was considered a viable candidate.

[quote]So many democrats are laser focused on Trump

To quote one of my favorite films: "All the time you spend trying to get back what's been took from you, more is going out the door. After a while you just have to try to get a tourniquet on it."

We need to stop the immediately threat. When we have a tourniquet on it, we can deal with the GOP at large.

[quote]We need to stop the immediately threat. When we have a tourniquet on it, we can deal with the GOP at large.

Which is what we did in 2020.

The Republican party is the problem.

The appropriate phrase is cutting off the head of the snake first.

This idiom is used in a battle or military application in which you remove the most dangerous opponent or the leader first, so that the other enemies will be easier to deal with.

Obviously 2020 did not stop Trump

[quote]We need to stop the immediately threat.

Oh dear, myself.

[quote]Obviously 2020 did not stop Trump

If he loses in November, the GOP will dump him.

And having Harris in office with a Republican led Congress and/or Senate would accomplish what exactly?

Not everyone is privileged enough to simply want Trump out. There are real problems people are facing, and with democratic majorities in both houses, we could get things accomplished. Balancing our Supreme court for starters. Implementing a national livable minimum wage. Taking on price gouging. Student loan forgiveness, medical debt forgiveness etc.

Otherwise, we're back in the same situation we were with Biden, and a Republican majority that stonewalled him every chance they could get. Only this time you don't have someone with Biden's experience working across the aisle.

Doesn’t adding RFKrazy to the Trump ticket just mean now they have three white weirdos on their campaign? Seems like they want to lose.

I don't think it's going to be the great boon MAGATs seem to think it is r242

White and male win elections. We had one fluke. A woman has never been tested.

A woman won the popular vote in 2016, and lost the electoral college by a hair's breadth in just three states. Misogyny could have played a part in her loss, but only among other factors—it's not the decisive factor some think. As for "white," a black man won comfortably in 2008 and 2012—not a "fluke."

Comey was the primary reason for her losing the election in 2016. The announcement of a reopening of the FBI investigation made it sound ominous to enough likely voters to stay home. The other was that she did not campaign enough in the swing states.

[quote]Comey was the primary reason for her losing the election in 2016.

Her personality may have had something to do with it.

Her big lead in the polls closed drastically in the last 10 days leading to the election. Comey made his announcement 11 days before election day.

[quote] A woman won the popular vote in 2016

And lost the presidency. What is your point? She won in places like California. That’s hardly a representation of America. She lost bigly against a buffoon because he had a dick. America will never ever vote for a black woman. You were warned.

[quote] What is your point?

Apparently you didn't read past my opening words. She lost the electoral college by a hair's breadth in just three states. TX, FL, and WY don't represent "America" any more than CA, NY, or VA do—but apparently your "America" means a minority of voters, and your idea of "bigly" is actually "barely." You are confused.

Girls Girls Girls, you're both stupid cunts quoting statistics from an US electorate makeup from 8 years ago that doesn't exist anymore.

People move to different states. A lot of old people have died and a lot of young people can now vote.

Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Trump seems to be back on the campaign trail, worried about the swing states: rallies in WI and PA on Aug. 29 and 30, while Vance has one in MI on the 27th. Apparently they'll be indoors, so the campaign must have gotten some big money.

He's worn out his welcome in American political life.

[quote] Trump seems to be back on the campaign trail, worried about the swing states: rallies in WI and PA on Aug. 29 and 30, while Vance has one in MI on the 27th.

“worried about the swing states”? The whole election will be decided by the swing states and that’s where the candidates will be until November. It’s incredible that someone didn’t know that.

The ‘’ IF’s’’ keep me up at night. I love Kamala. I just fear the mid-America fence sitters won’t go for dem-female-of color. Kill me now.

Democrat’s kidding themselves. Trump sycophants will never let him go-like blood sucking ticks. I will never fully understand why. I’m one gay brother with 6 straight sibling's all who have never voted Trump-they hate his orange guts.

If there’s anyone besides trump that should die in an epic grease fire, it’s that fucking scumbag maggot, James Comey. I will hate him forever for his no doubt calculated motive to bury Hillary, and sway voters. Clearly election interference

Learning that young people (18-30) get news from apps like Tic-Toc I feel we are doomed. Apps easily manipulated/inaccuracies unchecked.I give up. Oy- take me to the portable Trump Crematory on wheels.

All he does is shit and grift.

One thing that you do not hear from Harris or Democratic campaign folks is over-confidence. They realize it’s going to be close and that GOTV is going to be crucial. The results of 2016 are very much on their minds.

I have also read that the Democrats have substantially better organizations in the seven swing states — AZ, NV, MI, WI, PA, NC and GA. The election is going to come down to those seven, including possibly NE-02 as well.

I *did* know that, R255.

The new voter registration data, where available, favor Harris.

Kamala is only beating Trump by 1% now in the polls coming out. Her collapse is complete.

RFK helping Trump.

The fact that the Democrat isn’t beating a convicted felon by double digits is really bad.

[quote] Learning that young people (18-30) get news from apps like Tic-Toc I feel we are doomed.

Oh, dear.

My confidence level changes on a dime. I'm currently not optimistic.

538 August 28th:

"Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?"

"In our simulations of the 2024 presidential election, Harris wins 59 times out of 100"

"Trump wins 41 times out of 100."

This thread has, predictably, become a troll magnet.

What the hell is that pollster at r265? It has Harris over Trump in WI by 14 pts and over him in MA by 21 pts! And Trump besting Harris in GA by 20 pts. This is not accurate at all.

#% There oughta be a spray. Troll-Away™

[quote] What the hell is that pollster at [R265]? It has Harris over Trump in WI by 14 pts and over him in MA by 21 pts! And Trump besting Harris in GA by 20 pts. This is not accurate at all.

Polymarket is a prediction market. Those are betting odds, not polls.

RealClear averages betting odds.

Harris is ahead. But not by much:

Trump 48.8 %

Harris 49.8 %

WHERE THE HELL IS POLL TROLL EA?

R275 Here's the poll thread:

But PollTroll is MIA, r276

I need Xanax until the election.

I worry that some stupid comment or event could change the election at the last minute. A football star dies of a TMI and the left comes out against football and Walz has to make Sophie's Choice, fball or fwords? An illegal alien rapes a pretty white girl, oh nos. Any weird fucking thing can happen.

[quote]An illegal alien rapes a pretty white girl, oh nos.

Already happening.

[quote] An illegal alien rapes a pretty white girl, oh nos.

I'm in Pennsylvania, and these kinds of ads are already running during every commercial break on TV. They show a bunch of illegal immigrants who've committed violent crimes, describing the crimes in graphic detail, and then the ad ends with the narrator saying "The victims' blood is on Kamala Harris' hands." The GOP will try to blame Harris for every crime ever committed by an illegal immigrant. Unfortunately, right now the Trump ads seem to greatly outnumber the Harris ads.

What about all the people who died of Covid thanks to Dump? The dozens of Samoans who died of measles thanks to RFK Jr's antivax nonsense?

Trumper’s don’t care about the truth-that’s why their Trumper’s

Someone posted in another thread that if heaven forbid Trump gets elected, he’ll be assassinated shortly after. I believe that. I believe someone will step up to the plate, and go full metal jacket.

With Pennsylvania very much at risk, according to Democratic operatives on the ground, it's hard to muster a great deal of confidence in Harris's chances. Yes, she can make up the loss of Pennsylvania elsewhere, but it becomes a steeper hill to climb.

I don't think he'll be assassinated. I think he'll probably peter out and keel over before his term finishes, leaving us with Vance to oversee the collapsing economy and disappearing foreign policy.

I truly doubt he'll be reelected, r284, so it's a moot point.

Thanks for your election prediction, and opinion R287, but it’s a moot point because, well, it’s YOUR OPINION.

[quote]With Pennsylvania very much at risk, according to Democratic operatives on the ground, it's hard to muster a great deal of confidence in Harris's chances.

Source?

[QUOTE] With Pennsylvania very much at risk, according to Democratic operatives on the ground, it's hard to muster a great deal of confidence in Harris's chances.

Oh, is that why they are currently tied there?

Has the Pennsylvania lawn sign troll returned?

R284- If that ‘’heaven forbade’’ win happens I believe his security will be unprecedented possibly an updated version of ‘’pope mobile’’?-bitch will live forever.

We know from ‘16 & ‘20, that a “tie” in Pennsylvania is not cause for any great optimism.

While RCP shows Kamala leading in the polls, even in the swing states, Trump is now leading in the betting average.

And Nate Silver also shows Harris leading in polls, but has Trump with a lead in the chances of winning.

The polling - at least at this point - was far off in the Blue Wall states, but not, interestingly, the Sun Belt states.

Like some kind of bad horse race, there’s no telling now. Donald had his glory moment with the assassination attempt and Kamala had hers with her excellent DNC speech. Outside of divisive rhetoric they’ll shout until Nov. 5, I’m going to call it neck and neck. “Brat summer” is over and that also means Kamala is probably losing steam from her younger supporters. They think she already won and don’t feel the need to vote as strongly. That could very well destabilize her entire platform. She needs both gen Z and old people of color to vote for her. Along with Trump train switchovers that like Walz for his gun rights advocacy.

Neck and neck isn’t a good look for this country. It shows nobody agrees on anything, that we are certainly a nation divided. Things have to change in our political landscape. Eliminating the electoral college would be an excellent start. Our voices are not heard in general elections, as much as the media on both parties claims we are. It’s a psyop to give people the illusion of democracy and choice. We pretty much don’t.

Democracy Doomed.

Cautiously optimistic. I think she will win the popular vote, hands down. But with this electoral college bullshit, we are still at risk for trump's dictatorship. And R governors and senators are already pledging to ensure "election integrity" - meaning they will do their best to make sure "those people'" don't get their legitimate votes counted. Dems need to get out and vote in record numbers to be sure even the sleaziest Rs cannot rig this election.

Lots of weird claims made in your post, R296. Not quite sure what you’re doing there. You think that because summer is over, Kamala’s new younger fans are done? What evidence do you have of that? And please provide links.

Blocking r296 and their constant "both sides are bad" long posts is the best thing to do

Great post R296

R301 is one of R296’s sock puppets.

R302 = Idiot.

R303, if you’re the same person saying that because summer is over, young people have checked out of the election, then you are the idiot, dear.

R304 This is a discussion forum. We're all giving our opinions. We're all speculating.

The poster at R296 wrote "I’m going to call it neck and neck. “Brat summer” is over and that also means Kamala is probably losing steam from her younger supporters."

Not the use of the word "probably" i.e. "you think that it is likely to be the case, although you are not sure."

He is stating his opinion. He is SPECULATING. And I agree with him. It is a perfectly reasonable point of view.

FYI: Traditionally the 18-24 year old demographic is the one LEAST likely to vote.

TikTok memes are all well and good, but maintaining that enthusiasm and getting them out to the voting booth, will be a challenge.

That you are so TRIGGERED, dear delicate one, by people you don't agree with, does indeed show that you are, as I posted at R303, an idiot.

^ should read: "Note the use of the word..."

Please don't speak of yourself in third person r305

It's another sign that you're not well

If Kamala wins, she'd better be wearing double Depends confronting Putin or the head of China. She'll shit in her pants suit.

You must be thinking of Trump, R307/Troll. He’s the one with the documented history of incontinence issues.

r308 sound lovely.

She's been VP for 4 years, R308, and in politics for 24+ years. You think she hasn't met any world leaders yet?

Hey R296! Yeah, YOU! Shut the fuck up with your both sides shit, and edit your goddamn posts.

R309, someone who expresses an opinion other than yours doesn't make them a Troll. I've been Democrat since I could vote in 1960. Wish we had someone else to vote for.

Kamala doing well keeps calm the extreme lunatics of DL who are obsessed with politics, so that's a good thing. Unfortunately, they'll be psychopathic if she starts to dip. A healthier outlook would be that if she doesn't win, then it wasn't meant to be. Either way, we're not going to know until at least election day.

R313. Things have changed since 1960. Lots of the womenfolk do all kinds of man things now. I know she will never have the fortitude of Trump or Biden, but don't you think we can give her a chance?

So R313 is at least 85 years old.

My confidence has only grown since the Trump cemetery fiasco and Judge Merchan and Judge Chutkan doing their jobs, with no more delays.

What's all this stupid shit about Kamala being intimidated by Putin and China?

Hell, if anything, they'd be intimidated by her. And with good reason. They know they won't be able to lead her around by the nose like they did with Trump.

R318

"Asked about the upcoming U.S. election, Putin said it was ultimately “the choice of the American people” but claimed that Russia backed Harris, the Democratic nominee." - NBC News September 5th 2024

Even Putin has fallen in love with Kamala. She's the biggest star of the summer.

Fortunately for us, summer is almost over.

R315. It has nothing to do with her being a woman. Former credentials don't matter. Putin wants her to win, so he will have control in any negotiations, as will the Chinese government.

Let's all give R322 our best Lucille Bluth eyeroll.

The puppet slinking in the presence of his master.

[quote]Putin wants her to win, so he will have control in any negotiations, as will the Chinese government.

Russia is laughing at you.

Harris will mop the floor with Putin, she is not afraid of him and not in his pocket like Trump.

Kamala better wear a double set of Depends when Putin controls the conversation.

[quote] "Asked about the upcoming U.S. election, Putin said it was ultimately “the choice of the American people” but claimed that Russia backed Harris, the Democratic nominee." - NBC News September 5th 2024

And I completely take that at face value.

Kamala greets Pennsylvania voters in Pittsburgh.

Exchange of the Day:

CNN interviewed two voters in Pennsylvania:

REPORTER: Who will you vote for?

VOTER: Kamala Harris.

REPORTER: Were you Democrats before?

VOTER: I’m a Republican.

REPORTER: Why are you voting the other way?

VOTER: Because she behaves more like a human.

In negotiations, each party has to offer something the other party wants.

Putin and Russia don't have anything that the US wants or needs, so why would Kamala be negotiating with them?

[quote]Kamala better wear a double set of Depends when Putin controls the conversation.

Puh-lease. He's a fucking midge. I shit people bigger than him.

That Bobby Casey, who's easily dispatched his opponents in his each of his three Senate campaigns, is facing such a close reelection battle, tells us all we need to now know about how difficult the Pennsylvania terrain is for Harris.

So no, my confidence of Harris winning is not great.

If Biden won Pennsylvania so can Harris. I don’t buy it that they are a Trump state and want him to win.

[quote] If Biden won Pennsylvania so can Harris. I don’t buy it that they are a Trump state and want him to win.

Biden has strengths, though, where Harris does not, R334. Most particularly among older & non-educated whites who are a large component of the Pennsylvania electorate. The central part of Pennsylvania is said to be more like Alabama in its voting patterns. And let's not forget Pennsylvania WAS a Trump state in 2020.

Yeah, comparing Biden in 2020 to Kamala is quite absurd. We wanted Joe to run in 2020 to rescue us from candidates like Kamala and Bernie who we knew couldn’t win states such as Pennsylvania with their ultra liberal positions. Now not only is Kamala being haunted by those positions, she’s now being weighted down by an unpopular incumbency. The poll reflects that Trump is seen as the change candidate.

Pennsylvania also has Philadelphia with a population of 1,603,797 in the 2020 census. If turnout is massive Kamala will win.

Adding to my growing despair, the latest NYT/Siena College poll has Trump ahead 48% to 47% among likely voters. Clearly, not where we need to be.

Why don’t you make a donation instead of sitting in your “growing despair”?

These are polls of “people who will answer polls”. The big example of that in this NYT poll? It says Harris is only up by 8 among 18 to 34 year olds. We know that’s not representative of the population.

Donate, volunteer and talk to persuadables in your lives. We will win if we turnout the vote.

And what makes you think I haven't, R339?! I've already donated $250 & will contribute more.

[quote] Pennsylvania also has Philadelphia with a population of 1,603,797 in the 2020 census. If turnout is massive Kamala will win.

Harris does have room to grow. As perplexing as it may seem, she's not yet even at the level of support Biden enjoyed in 2020 among Black women.

A lot of this “stall” narrative is the Empire striking back. Those oligarchs are not too happy with her going after unrealized gains, price gouging, and other redistributive to them only practices they’ve been enjoying without scrutiny. That said, if she raised $800 million in the last 2 months she better start spending it.

After this week, my confidence is much higher.

Just hope this video doesn't go viral....

I wish mine was, R344. Harris is still lagging well behind the poll numbers of Hillary & Biden at this time in their elections. She's behind Biden's final numbers in key demographics like Black women & young people. And then there's the fact that Trump was undercounted in the polls in the blue wall states in both '16 & '20.

R345: Honey everything she says will go viral.

For reference. R346.

Well, R348, that polling was before 9/15 & the fall of Lehman Bros., which cratered the economy. A pretty seismic event, which sealed the win for Obama.

r346 is one of many posters I currently have blocked

R350 Fascinating!

More confident everyday OP, now that Trump's insanity is moving closer to the forefront.

I know R35O will not see this, but any cursory review of my posting history will reveal how passionate I am about the existential threat Trump presents. And how imperative it is that Harris wins. But I’m most clear-eyed about the task. A fact which might upset someone who only wants to see things through rose-colored glasses.

I think it should at least give some pause among the most optimistic of us that Harris barely moved the needle in the first post-debate polls. After she wiped the floor with Trump, exposing him once again for the monumentally unfit crank that he is.

I'm thrilled with how everything has gone with Biden stepping down (he was clearly physically and mentally unfit to seek another term) and Kamala becoming the Dem nominee so far. She has surpassed my expectations. I was very impressed with the debate, her rallies and with the enthusiasm of the Democratic supporters.

However, it all comes down to those few thousand voters in those swing states and the What's In It For Me voters. Unbelievably considering the Republican candidate - it could still go either way. Anyone who believes different is an idiot.

At least now that Biden is out of the picture there is some hope. There was no hope with him as the candidate. Only doom knowing Trump would win without any doubt. I love Kamala and support her all the way. Let's hope we manage to win! It's so important - especially as we gays are a target minority of the GOP.

It’s really a few thousand voters in 30-40 counties in the seven swing states that will decide this election.

R356 You mean hundreds of thousands.

Not a chance in hell.

Well, R357, it could be just thousands of votes in EACH of the 30-40 counties that decide the election.

Pretty confident as long as Trump keeps talking about migrants eating lets.

I think Trump is pushing those few thousands votes away from himself. They either go to Harris or they don't vote. The undecideds are the ones that matter and in being undecided it means they've got problems with Trump (and Harris.) But nothing Trump is doing should push undecided toward him. There's also a chance some of Trump's own decided vote drops out. Most are Magats, but some consider themselves just Republicans. They may find him too much to stomach.

Between that and failure of the Red Wall Syndrome, my money is on Harris but I take nothing for granted. We won't know til the votes are counted and the lawsuits resolved. Probably end of December?

In the first post-debate poll - by Yahoo News/YouGov, a A+-rated pollster - to show more than a point increase, Harris, in a 4 point uptick since August, is up 5 (50-45) among registered voters & up 4 (49-45) among likely voters.

I’ve said this before and I will say it to November. Women are going to decide this election in a HISTORICAL way. I’d bet my life on it. Because of globalism and permanent changes in industry a lot of men have bought into Trump’s message. In ways that he has converted a lot of non political Joes and Jeffs. But women are actually pragmatic— Trump is just a bridge too far at this point. They see the writing on the wall.

I'm cautiously optimistic, but I don't count anything out where that filth Trump is involved. I admit that I am absolutely petrified that the republicans are going to find some way to steal this election, and get away with it. And we obviously can't count on the Supreme Court to put a stop to any illegalities the GOP may do. At this point I am absolutely miserable over it on a daily basis, and at 71 I can't keep on this way a whole lot longer.

For the poster(s) who think this race is won for Harris without the support of (former) Republicans.

I’m not saying I agree with his analysis, but the former UK ambassador to the US (who resigned after leaked documents revealed his criticism of Trump) says at this point Trump is the likelier winner.

He bases this on not currently winning over poor voters and not doing being available to the media.

Harris is very likely to win the popular and electoral college. The problem is going to be all the shenanigans the Republicans have been doing up to, during and after the election to either disenfranchise voters, to kick voters off the registered logs, to find ways to significantly slow down and divert mail-in votes, and to contest results that were legitimate.

[quote] Harris is very likely to win the popular and electoral college. The problem is going to be all the shenanigans the Republicans have been doing

Saying that somehow Republicans could steal the elections sounds exactly like what Republicans say about Democrats. Both sides would say, “Yes, but we’re justified in claiming it, while the other side is not.”.

R368, have you been paying attention to American politics in the last decade, or did you just beam in from outer space?

The thing about polls is that they are mainly based on people who: pick up the phone, answer random texts asking for information, answer random political emails.

NO ONE I know would ever do such a thing

R368 Apparently having your head up your ass for the last 8 years has become an art form.

The co-writer of Game Change who is not John Heilemann today said today on his platform that, when looking at polling, "All I care about is if Donald Trump is able to define Kamala Harris outside the mainstream." Trump, he said, probably wins if he does, loses if he does not. "Every poll I look at I look through that prism." He then pivoted to two new polls, the Des Moines Register poll of Iowa & the Financial Times (FT). With respect to the former, he noted that, with the exception of abortion, Trump leads on every trait, yet the poll is "very close" in a state Trump has handily won the last two cycles. This, he said, is a "[g]reat sign for Kamala Harris [as] it means she doesn't have to cut the gap completely on these issues." The FT poll shows Harris doing better - albeit within the margin of error - on the economy. "If I'm right," he concluded, "and the whole thing is binary, can [Trump] define her or not, the answer, in these two polls, is he's not defining her with fifty days left to do it and [Harris] is doing a great job, mostly, of playing defense."

[quote]he noted that, with the exception of abortion, Trump leads on every trait, yet the poll is "very close" in a state Trump has handily won the last two cycles.

Are the political analysts taking into account Trump's crazy-assed comments? That's gotta be another factor into why voters might be abandoning him.

One of the many, many reasons I hate Dump is that I have lived in a state of low-key anxiety ever since he entered national politics in 2015.

CBS not getting the answers it was hoping for.

At 5:35

Steve Schmidt (former GOP strategist left party maybe 2016) says that whoever gets the most press coverage is who is losing. It’s some kind of political law of gravity. So the fact that he’s getting killed with negative press should be helping Kamala — if this theory is accurate. That’s the first time I’ve ever heard someone say that, so time will tell. But there is a logic to it, if you believe in paying attention to organic cultural markers, such as mood, energy, tone, what people are hungry for, changing trends, etc. These are more subjective and always in flux, so tricky to gauge. Much of it is simply being extremely steeped in culture combined with having strong instincts. The past year I’m studying primate behavior and guerilla warfare plus military history. Guess what? It’s really helpful to understand these three topics during an election this dire. Also, I plan to read several books on power…

You know growing up in East coast cities you sometimes heard the saying— Liberalism is a mental disorder. And your like wtf, WE are right. We are moral. We are educated. But now I see. It’s not that we are wrong on policy; the democrats sometimes are a little mentally ill because they keep taking on issues that are an electorate loser. Even most Mexicans hate illegal immigration and want a tighter border.

[quote]WE are right. We are moral. We are educated.

Is that a Nazi-like sense of superiority, or more of a Leopold and Loeb?

R376, isn’t Schmidt’s theory consistent with the position that whomever this campaign is about will be on the losing side? That as long as it’s about Trump - who usually cannot help but making everything about himself - he cannot win?

Your slip is showing, r377

R380 wtf are you talking about?

I believe, R381, that R380 was referring to the deliberate misrepresentation of the Democrats' policy on immigration.

North Carolina is a remote possibility. Florida however is a lost cause.

I wonder how many people who respond to polls stating they are voting for Trump will actually vote. Maybe his dedicated cult members will show up but he's low energy and his message is gibberish, not exactly the sort of thing that will inspire lazy thinkers.

Since 2016, pollsters have figured out how to contact Trump voters, but they still haven't figured out how to reach the younger voters who have reached voting age since then. TikTok doesn't work so well for figuring out how someone's going to vote

[quote] I wonder how many people who respond to polls stating they are voting for Trump will actually vote.

Do you know how many people who respond to polls stating they are voting for Harris will actually vote? Why wouldn’t you care about that?

[quote] North Carolina is a remote possibility.

NC is very much in play for Harris.

Anyone who votes for Trump is UnAmerican just like him.

Not confident at all.

I’m confident about Kamala but not about Republicans playing fair. They will cheat in hopes of taking victory from her. God forbid it ends up at the Supreme KKKouurt.

I am with r391. Election Day results will be a mess for months all due to Repiublican cheating with Putins help

I need to stop reading this thread before bed.

Putin can't do much to interfere with the actual voting process as every state has their own process and then each county runs elections on their own. They can't interfere enough to do any overall damage

Their damage is in spreading generic messages that the US election process is untrustworthy and broken

Hillary lost in 2016 because of about 10,000 votes in Wisconsin. So it was not hundreds of thousands.

I’m still sticking by my assertion that if that mother fucking bag of landfill waste wins, he will be assassinated soon thereafter.

And then we have Vance, r396.

Not comforting.

R395 is that true. I think she needed more than just Wisconsin to reach 270. She lost Pennsylvania, memba.

Yes, R397, I know that. We all know that. I’m not wishing for an assassination. I’m predicting an assassination. There is a difference.

If Trump doesn't agree to a second debate that Kamala is all in for he'll look like a loser and she will surely win.

[quote]If Trump doesn't agree to a second debate that Kamala is all in for he'll look like a loser and she will surely win.

The hit he would take from doing poorly at the debate is far worse than any hit he would take from not agreeing to another debate. His campaign would be smart not to risk it.

But it's usually the one pressing for a debate who's the one who is losing, R400.

We’re not losing! We’ve already lost and I am more vulnerable than most on DL. Trying to put a survival plan together but maybe it doesn’t matter. I’m disabled on ssdi that will be cut or go away along with Medicare. My house still isn’t paid for and I’ll be in the street. .Maybe it’s better to be dead than to have a ‘’Trump 4-ever Presidential Dictator’’

So true. No landslide’s coming and the Trumper’s will take the election to the ‘’Supremes-featuring Clarence Thomas’’

Kamala is still either tied or up 1 in all the states she needs to win. Trump can still take this easily. It’ll be incredible if Americans elect a convicted felon but they’ve done plenty of fucked up things before. Kamala is really having trouble getting the male vote. She’s only at +3 while Biden was up +30.

I think of Walz does great at the debate that can really help Kamala. It’ll show that the Trump campaign is featuring two unhinged candidates. Kamala and Tim can look like they’ll bring stability.

[quote] Trump can still take this easily. It’ll be incredible if Americans elect a convicted felon but ...

Listen to what you're saying. If Trump wins, it won't have been because "Americans" elect him, it'll be because a minority of voters manage to get a critical state or two that tips the EC. Don't blame "Americans" for the depravation of the rural, cult-addled minority.

I think it could still go either way. Hopefully, there's some October surprise that puts the nail in Trump's coffin, thought I can't imagine anything that would deter MAGAts from voting for him at this point.

R405 Fun Fact. In 2016 white women voted for Trump 51%. In 2020 white women for for Trump 53%.

So even after all his scandals and horrible performance as president , after 4 years, two percent more white women voted for Trump.

[quote] I can't imagine anything that would deter MAGAts from voting for him at this point.

Agree that most of Trump’s and Harris’ voters will vote for their candidate no matter what happens. It’s just a tiny number in the middle who are malleable.

It may all come down to Pennsylvania. If Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, she wins. I think she will, but Pennsylvania is probably the most uncertain of those 3 states. If she loses Pennsylvania, she can still win, but it gets much more difficult. She would need to win at last 2 of the 4 Southern battleground states: Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia. But the polls (like at R408) are suggesting that Trump may carry all of those states, except Nevada. If Harris loses PA and NC and GA (not likely but very possible), it's over.

There's ratfuckery afoot in a lot of states. I worry when I don't see Roger Stone galloping towards a camera. It means he's busy

R411, she doesn’t win with only the three states (WI, MI, PA) if Nebraska switches to winner take all. Which they are trying to do, at Trump’s urging.

Maine (the only other state who also has proportional voting) can’t do the same in this election cycle. Laws need 90 days to the effect, With only 269, the election goes to Congress and the Republicans would install Trump. This scenario would blow the country up.

[quote] This scenario would blow the country up.

Especially, R413, if, as expected, Harris wins the popular vote.

R414

I honestly think they can win, but I'm not exactly confident. I don't want to get my hopes up and have them crushed like when Hillary lost.

[quote] With only 269, the election goes to Congress and the Republicans would install Trump. This scenario would blow the country up.

Once again showing how dangerous it is that Americans are not adequately taught civics. If they were taught how elections work, it wouldn’t come as a surprise.

The Vice Presidential debate is Oct 1st.

Walz will have a field day bringing up some of JD Vance's famous quotes as well as his stance on abortion.

But if you watch Vance's debate against Tim Ryan, you can see that Vance did not do badly. At least he won't be coming off as an unhinged loon the way Trump did.

I think Vance will be very careful and make Walz look like the ‘’corny coach’’ with no money in the bank/irresponsible. Walz will be overly confidante-‘’fall on face’’. I HOPE NOT but I’m a worrier.

I’m terrified, due to the Electoral College.

Me too, r421.

I was feeling hopeful until a week or two ago. Harris HAS to make MAJOR inroads.

Hold me, David.

[quote]I’m terrified, due to the Electoral College.

If Trump wins, but Harris gets the most votes nationally, people can still take that as a moral victory and just look ahead to 2028 to keep themselves occupied. The race for the nomination will begin immediately. The only sure thing would be that if Harris loses, she won't be renominated.

R424 Sorry, but winning the popular vote and losing the Electoral College vote will be no moral victory. It will be the third time a Democrat candidate got a sizeable more votes than a Republican but still lost the election. If the Republicans were losing the presidency that way, you can bet something would have been done about it by now.

The teamsters not endorsing Kamala is worrisome.

Not given the well-known circumstances of that non-endorsement (and the local Teamsters are endorsing her all over the place).

I see Pennsylvania trending on X. Trump is there tonight for a big rally.

I do believe that Nebraska has rejected the winner takes all option.

Kamala must win or we're doomed. Voters must step up and do the right thing.

[quote]Polling is pointing toward a Harris victory. Diaper Don is getting more unhinged by the day, so he seems to have accepted that he's going to lose again.

But popularity doesn't win presidential elections. Electoral votes determine the win

[quote] If the Republicans were losing the presidency that way, you can bet something would have been done about it by now.

What is they could have done? They, like the Dems, don't enjoy the supermajorities needed in Congress to pass a constitutional amendment. Even if they did, they wouldn't have a supermajority of state legislatures to follow suit.

I don't understand why people have a problem with people migrating to the US to get a job and have a better life. "Taking our jobs" is bullshit. They're doing the work that we don't want to do. It's a racist attitude spoken by the King of the Racists - Donald Trump. He's poison.

[quote]They're doing the work that we don't want to do.

Since you can only speak for yourself, how many people are you?

For the right amount of money, anyone would do any reasonable work. People like you always cut off the last part of the sentence: "work that people won't do when the wage the employer is offering is too low for that type of work."

R434 And people like you always seem to be the ones who scream their heads off everytime democrats fight for a minimum wage hike that corporations will be forced to lay off employees and charge higher prices and the whole world will come tumbling down.

This election is giving me déjà vu of the Roy Moore vs Doug Jones senate race in Alabama. It should have been a slam dunk by any measure, but sanity only won by the skin of its teeth. I feel Harris is more likely to pull out of win, but it’s going to be tight and not emphatic. MAGA won’t go away and will only find a more palatable candidate for next time. Republicans cornering themselves due to Roe v Wade is the only thing saving the Dems. This election will be a brief reprieve. I’m weary of every election feeling like a knife’s edge to disaster, but I need to learn to accept it will be a constant struggle. I’m increasingly jealous of apolitical people. Ignorance would be truly bliss. Must be nice.

As we have seen over the last many years, Trump IS the MAGA movement. There is no finding a more palatable candidate for next time, R436.

I agree that Trump IS the MAGA movement. But I also agree that MAGA won't go away. The MAGAts don't want to be governed. They want to be entertained. Once Trump exits the political stage, they will look for their next entertainer. The Trump replacement won't be a "more palatable politician." It will be someone with no political background -- someone from the world of entertainment, business, sports, or the right-wing media -- a Fox News or Newsmax personality, a right-wing podcaster, etc. That's who the GOP will run for president in 2028. And if that sounds far-fetched, remember that Trump's candidacy seemed far-fetched when he first ran in 2016.

Yeah, I think Trump is sui generis. Much like Reagan.

Unfortunately, Trump trained his base to continue to expect nothing and continue to bitch and moan. He’s not lifting up anyone except the rich through tax cuts.

I will be so bummed if PA gives the election to Dump.

if Americans vote for this bastard then they deserve what they voted for.

I know one thing for sure, I promised myself last time when Hilary lost that I was going to do it but this time I definitely will . I am going to renounce the American citizenship and will move to Spain.

If this bastard wins, it will be because of the electoral college and I’m not willing to live in a country with this rigged and fake democracy.

I think she will squeak in. I don't know if I believe it or just hope it, but that's what I think. I don't think it will be clear election night, unless the polls are wrong and she pulls a much stronger performance than he polls suggest. I call that possible but not probable.

I think she is not doing much to erode Trump's lead on the economy and the border.

[quote] Don't blame "Americans" for the depravation of the rural, cult-addled minority.

Those people are Americans and it won’t be only rural areas. These people exist everywhere sadly.

R441, why Spain?

[quote]I am going to renounce the American citizenship and will move to Spain.

Oh really? How are you going to do that?

R441 well you will have a few issues living in Spain’s completely unrigged and real democracy.

Does anyone think the VP debate will change any minds?

I'm confident that she will win the popular vote but I'm nervous as hell about the Electoral College. The Electoral College makes it almost impossible for democrats to win.

Democrats have won the Electoral College 3 out of the past 4 elections, r448

R447: I don't think the VP debate will move the needle if the third presidential debate does take place on October 23rd.

I’m still confident because she is up nationally and holding leads in PA, WI and MI. If she wins those plus Nevada she wins. GA and AZ would help but she can afford to lose one or both. Also, Trump is LOSING momentum. People don’t want four crazy years with him.

R451 sounds like famous last words.

Any Republican, even an evil stupid one would be better than Trump. Who the fuck wants to hear this fat bloated idiot yammering on day after day?

[quote] Any Republican, even an evil stupid one would be better than Trump.

You may get your wish if Trump resigns and Vance becomes president. Maybe that could be plan B.

[quote] Does anyone think the VP debate will change any minds?

I fear that Vance's approval ratings have no place to go but up.

[quote] I’m still confident because she is up nationally and holding leads in PA, WI and MI. If she wins those plus Nevada she wins.

If she wins the Rustbelt states, all she needs is Nebraska-2, where her polls numbers are better than in any of the battleground states.

Trump is now visiting states that have been hit by Hurricane Helene, something neither Biden or Harris have done.

Will he throwing out rolls of paper towels?

[quote]Trump is now visiting states that have been hit by Hurricane Helene, something neither Biden or Harris have done.

Because he doesn’t care about getting in the way of actual emergency operations. He knows the media will follow him around and broadcast his lies.

My primary concern isn't Harris winning the election, it is Trump and his election deniers in key positions in swing states being able to deny certification.

Dems control the government in most of the battleground states, R460. I’m more concerned with Harris winning enough of them.

Thanks for sharing your concern.