Harris Wipes Out Trump’s Swing-State Lead in Election Dead Heat

Nice overall. Hope to see more and better data out of Pennsylvania. That doesn't look right.

“Kamala moves the needle. People are excited,” said Robert Banks in downtown Marietta, Georgia, where he was working on Friday distributing liquor to a local business.

Banks, who is 47 and Black, plans to vote for the vice president. He was an admirer of Biden too, but the president’s age left him vulnerable to attacks by Trump. Banks said he didn’t like the way Biden was “forced out,” but is relieved to have someone different at the top of the ticket. “I’m definitely not for Trump,” he said. “We can’t go through four more years of him.”

Harris’ appeal to Black and Hispanic voters will be a concern for the Trump campaign, which has long planned to court those groups – and especially younger men within them. It’s seen as a way for the GOP to broaden support beyond its traditional base and make up for a likely deficit among suburban women.

There are already signs that Biden’s withdrawal has upended this strategy. Trump, who specializes in put-downs, has struggled to define his new opponent without coming across as racist or sexist and alienating swing-state voters. He faces other challenges given his ongoing legal woes, as a convicted felon who was found liable of both sexual abuse and liable for defamation and ordered to pay $83 million. Harris has exploited that by leaning into her record as a prosecutor.

In fact, political operatives say the new match-up could change the electoral gameplan for both camps.

Harris’ candidacy appears to have boosted Democratic prospects in places like Arizona, Nevada and Georgia – opening up more paths to victory than appeared plausible for Biden. But she still needs to do well in northern industrial states. And while she’s comfortably ahead in Michigan and slightly ahead in Wisconsin, according to the new poll, Trump leads in Pennsylvania. These are all factors for the Harris team as the vice president weighs who to select as her running mate.

Makes sense. How could anyone think there would be enthusiasm for the same bad choices we had in 2020?

For Republicans, the chance of a blow-out election win over Biden – in which the party would capture states like Virginia, Minnesota or New Hampshire, and comfortably surpass the threshold of 270 electoral votes – looks harder for Trump to pull off against Harris.

The immigration issue remains a potential plus for Trump’s campaign – and a vulnerability for Harris – in the swing states.

More than 40% of respondents in the new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll said the vice president had a somewhat or very negative impact on policy in that area when serving in the Biden administration, a higher proportion than on other issues like the economy and crime.

That suggests Republican efforts to pin the blame on the vice president over the border problems – including an argument over whether she was officially anointed as Biden’s “border czar” – may be getting some traction.

“I think Ms. Harris is a disaster,” said Boozer McClure, a 65-year-old owner of Square Threads, a men’s and women’s clothing store in downtown Marietta.

McClure — who said he backs the GOP case for a clampdown on migrants, more oil drilling and the need to get a grip on the high cost of living — faulted Harris for her stint leading the Biden administration’s efforts to curb illegal immigration. “She was the border czar and she did absolutely nothing,” McClure said.

The Trump campaign released an ad just this week — after the latest polling was completed — which sought to tie Harris’ leadership on the border to drug trafficking, terrorism threats and a spike in violent crime. The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult regular tracking survey was conducted online between July 24-28.

On the economy — clearly ranked by swing-state voters as the most important election issue, in this poll and previous ones – Harris has made inroads against Trump, though the GOP candidate continues to enjoy a clear advantage.

Trump has an eight percentage-point edge over Harris on the question of who’s trusted more on the economy, down from the 14-point advantage he held over Biden early this month.

There was a similar shift on inflation, which voters rate as the most crucial economic challenge –- a sign that Harris may escape at least some voter blame for the price-spike under Biden. Trump was trusted over the current president by 48% to 35%, in the last survey in early July, to do a better job of handling the cost of everyday goods. That advantage has narrowed to just five points against Harris.

The vice president is also more trusted to “unify the country,” which was rated an important election issue by 91% of respondents -- a high enough reading to place it among the top factors on voters’ minds. The issue was added to the latest Bloomberg poll after the assassination attempt on Trump led political leaders of both parties to promise to bring people together.

More broadly, one takeaway from the poll is that in many areas where Harris performs better than Biden did, the shift isn’t so much in the GOP candidate’s ratings.

“Since last month’s survey, our swing state tracking revealed many self-identified Democrats coming home to support their party’s candidate,” said Alexander Podkul, senior director of research science at Morning Consult. “Harris’ switch to the top of the ticket appears to have excited her base.”

Methodology

The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll surveyed 4,973 registered voters in seven swing states: 804 registered voters in Arizona, 799 in Georgia, 706 in Michigan, 454 in Nevada, 706 in North Carolina, 804 in Pennsylvania and 700 in Wisconsin. The surveys were conducted online from July 24 to July 28. The aggregated data across the seven swing states were weighted to approximate a target sample of swing-state registered voters based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, marital status, home ownership, 2020 presidential vote and state. State-level data were weighted to approximate a target sample of registered voters in the respective state based on gender, age, race/ethnicity, marital status, home ownership, and 2020 presidential vote. The statistical margin of error is plus or minus 1 percentage point across the seven states; 3 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania; 4 percentage points in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, and 5 percentage points in Nevada.

HELTER SKELTER

[quote] “I think Ms. Harris is a disaster,” said Boozer McClure, a 65-year-old owner of Square Threads

Boozer is a loser.

Harris is half-Asian, something that pretty much everyone ignores, just as they did with Tiger Woods. How is she doing with the growing Asian population? If it were mentioned more, would her popularity rise, especially to provide an ethnic alternative to Vivek and Nimrata?

It might not matter. Trump DOESN'T NEED the votes.....Clip

The writer of the article was practically trolling readers with that quote, R7. Of all the people the writer could have selected to exemplify a MAGA shithead, they went with a guy named Boozer. You couldn't make that up.

Ha! I actually know Boozer. He's married but so gay seeming and a bit of an asshole. He opened a men's haberdashery that all looks like Easter clothes for toddlers.

You go, Madame President!

Here is his shop

Harris's Indian heritage is something that would help her in educated suburbs where a lot of middle class Indian-Americans live. However those are largely in solid blue and red states.

However, Philadelphia metro and Detroit metro have around 2% Indian American residents. However, that includes children as well as noncitizens.

And here's a profile of Boozer himself. The photo does give off bitchy southern queen vibes.

Finally!

Something to feel good about on an otherwise shitty day for me.

Also… who the fuck names their child Boozer???

[quote]Kamala Harris has wiped out Donald Trump’s lead across seven battleground states

Oh, goody. I guess we're all good then.

Boozer is short for Boozerley Leslie.

Borders are still open. Inflation is still hitting the middle class every time they buy groceries. Kamala just seems like more Joe. That might be fine today. But 90 days from now? I'm not so sure.

Borders open, R19? There’s less people coming across the border than when Trump left office. And the Biden administration has captured and deported more illegals in three years than Trump did in four.

R20 Can you post anything without using the word TRUMP?

The title of this thread is “ Harris Wipes Out Trump’s Swing-State Lead in Election Dead Heat”.

This feels like Hillary 2016 all over again. Another "unstoppable" woman who Trump cannot beat. I'm not believing Trump has lost this election yet.

I don't think this feels anything like 2016. This campaign feels broadly based, fresh and new, fun, optimistic, less stuck in the past, less of a club. This is not a calculation, but the unexpected.

I could swear I read r19’s post word for word somewhere else.

Yeah, Hillary’s campaign sucked. This seems to have more and better energy.

The energy is close to 2008, 2016 if you were into Bernie. But this has got to be one of the most personality driven elections in American history. I’m excited to vote for Harris, would have been happy to vote for Biden. But what policy would we expect from either if they also got control of Congress? Codifying Roe is about it. Versus deportation camps.

[quote] Inflation is still hitting the middle class every time they buy groceries.

R19. This is no longer inflation. It is corporate greed and grocery store greed (and oil company greed regarding gas prices). They raised the prices, got used to the sky-high profits, and now won't bring down the prices.

From R5’s image/poll, I can’t believe how disconnected people are with reality. Trump mishandled the pandemic and passed tax cuts that crashed the economy into a recession while Biden saved it with the biggest investments into the US since the FDR and Johnson and the US did markedly better in a time of global inflation. But he’s less trusted to run the economy?

R29 = Kamala is HERE!! And sharing her talking points with DL!! Hey girl!!

R29, you also seem disconnected from reality. Though the tax cuts were a bad idea, they certainly did not crash the economy. The economy grew through 2020 when the pandemic caused the recession.

new ad (border)

[bold] The Infrastructure Bill TRASHED the U.S. economy. [/bold] Economists warned it would fuel inflation. Spoiler Alert. It fueled inflation. Just because the billionaires are doing great on Wall Street doesn't mean Biden and Kamala are fixing inflation.

R33, only 17 percent of the Infrastructure Bill has been spent. Spare us your WSJ opinion piece.

R31, sure, I’ll rephrase that. He passed tax cuts which led to permanent deficits, and mishandled the pandemic which might have mitigated the recession. The Biden administration has done so much more for the average American including investment into public works, the motor union, capping insulin cost, keeping internet access for low income Americans, protecting workers and consumers rights, etc. And inflation right now is at around 3% and dropping to pre-pandemic rates.

It’s always the same trend of republicans riding on the winds of the previous democratic admin’s economy and take claim for it Then they mishandle a good economy with tax cuts for the wealthy and cutting social services, which the repercussions aren’t seen until the next democratic administration and then republicans blame them for it.

Bad news from Pennsylvania.

R36 As a former Pennsylvanian, I would not consider this as worrying as it might seem on the surface. In PA, you HAVE to officially declare a party when you register to vote, but you only have to vote the party you register as during the primaries. Technically, you can register as a Republican and write in the Easter Bunny on your GE ballot. The thing is though that (at least when I lived there) the party you register with is printed on your voting card. So, if for instance, the wife of a Trumper that is now terrified she (or one if her daughters)might be sometime in the near future forced to bleed out from an ectopic pregnancy on a hospital bed or lose her secret stash of morning after pills but doesn't want her Bubba husband to know she won't be voting for Trump, she could register as a Republican and still privately vote for Harris. The same could be true of an employee that is afraid his Trumper boss might find out his registered party.

^*one of her daughters

Why people are sticking with a guy who doesn't give a fuck about them is beyond me.

What R39 said.

R39 You would be shocked by the number of anonymous questions from women have been submitted everywhere from local subreddits to election official Twitter pages to domestic violence shelters in the last couple of months all asking the same question:

Is there any way that my husband can find out who I vote for?

It's terribly sad.

^*that have been submitted

(Sorry--typing on the treadmill)

7 out of 10 Americans support the codification of full reproductive rights for women (meaning legalized abortion up to the approximate 24-week viability mark).

But clearly, 7 out of 10 Americans wouldn't publicly admit to voting for someone other than a Republican, so you do the math--they're not all going to be voting the way that they claim they will, whether that be on social media or over the dinner table or in the polls.

I don’t think Kamala will win Pennsylvania. It has become a more densely populated West Virginia. She will take Michigan and Georgia. I’m positive about that.

You’re an idiot. She will win Pennsylvania.

'Member this? I 'member.

The key to peace of mind is low expectations and not even caring how many are eggs in your basket.

Aaaand more.

People should know better than to afford polls any emotions whatsoever after 2016.

Ooh, almost forgot this one.

"It's rigged!" -- Jill Stein, 2016