Exclusive: Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in US presidential race, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds

I'm sure NYT will find a way to spin it into "Democrats in disarray!"

Kamala Harris is already leading Donald Trump in a poll. Why that's bad news for Harris, Joe Biden and S3 of And Just Like That.

Trump has peaked. The so-called assassination attempt plus the RNC was his golden moment of this election cycle. Barring any missteps by the Democrats his poll numbers can only plateau or decline.

Harris has consolidated her support faster than anyone expected. She has the momentum. The moment of truth will be the poll that follows the Democratic National Convention.

NYTimes story tomorrow:

Harris barely leads in poll, Trump has momentum and will overtake her paltry numbers shortly, the republicans have never been more united, the democrats more apart, Trump is the only candidate fit enough to win the election, Harris is surprisingly hated by all the women in America, please read our discussion on page 25 with a dozen undecided voters who showed up in our lobby and see how they all hate Harris and will vote for Trump.

"And Nate Silver tells you where to find best deep dish pizza in Chicago!"

Re R7, she's not even the nominee yet, but has been in this position for two days. It's a start.

Further, the poll was in field before Biden dropped out. It was all theory.

This is a beginning.

r3 "The moment of truth will be the rigging, Russian interference, and bribed electors by orange shit face and his minions"

Kamala’s team has harnessed brat power. She’ll win this with the newly energized gen z females and gays coalition.

[quote] "Democrats in disarray!"

They don't have enough disarray this time!

Trump is over. Kamala is fated to become POTUS and there's not one thing he can do about it.

Tell me when the comatose Independents are waking up and migrating to Harris.

That should be when she hits 55%.

I’ve got no one and nothing banned, but cannot see r6 or r7’s posts.

r14 I have him blocked. Coincidentally, he's the same guy who creates something like a quarter of all DL threads.

There is something growing here. I think now that Biden’s old age drama is out of the picture people realize. We have a 78 yr old megalomaniac convicted felon who has been nothing but drama since November 2016. Do we really want this again. Can the country really survive him again? Most rational, not butt hurt about something people have decided. NO we don’t. We’re voting Kamala and voting blue to stop the madness.

I'm glad to see Americans excited and happy after years of Trump's negative vibes.

Neither do I. It's some run-of-the-mill troll. Like Dejecto, who must be back on the sauce.

R15, so I’ve automatically banned a MAGAt without even having to go through the whole blocking procedure? Muriel’s getting better by the AI minute.

Yes, r6 / r7 is the prolific MAGA poster. He’s started dozens of anti-Dem and anti-Biden threads. Let’s all FF this troll into oblivion.

Democrats in array, bitches.

Trying to keep my expectations in check, but I feel like the contrast between old, gross and crazy Trump with energetic, smart, and attractive Kamala will benefit her. Also people may be just goddamned tired of him!

Those numbers win only get higher for Kamala now.

Trump and Vance already feel like yesterday's news lining the birdcage.

.... aaaand right on cue, a horde of Central Americans breach the southern Mexico border (already illegal?) to make the impossible journey north 1,300 miles. They will travel over 30 miles a day over 6 weeks without food and water- fighting snakes, scorpions and coyotes- to arrive at the Texas border looking like they just stepped off a plane. Fat and sassy, chatting on their cell phones in freshly-laundered clothing. FOX News will be there covering the **BREAKING NEWS** CRISIS AT THE BORDER!!

Odd -- I don't block many people but I can't see R6 or R7 either. Is it the same person? He must be truly rancid because I don't think I've blocked more than 5 people my whole time here (which is a long time, given my eldergay status).

I can’t see them either and I don’t have them blocked. R26.

I think Muriel now just vaporizes trolls and makes them invisible, instead of redtagging them like what used to happen.

Memories of 2016 - Hillary's ahead of Trump, yay!

But how to break this statistical tie...

I propose a dance-off, on national television, between the two candidates. They have to keep moving during each song, and the first one to fall over dead loses the election.

First up: New Edition's "Cool it Now."

Love the momentum. She has the energy to be all over the media. Trump is not going to be on The View, lol. People said they want something new, younger and I'm 63 I never thought I would see a woman president and now I think it will happen.

[quote]10 of these billboards were just put up in swing-state Pennsylvania.

It is gonna be Kamala 53-43, and she will make sure the insurrectionists get what's coming.

Biden may have been too timid to do it, but she knows what needs to be done with traitors like those assholes, and will hopefully do it.

I also already have R6/R7 blocked. She's a CUNT TROLL. BLOCK.

[quote] Reuters/Ipsos poll

Reutersh

Ipshosh

Trump went from being the clever, spry whippersnapper to being the cranky old fogey with no ideas or plans for the future other than "I'm not Biden". Then he picked a mannequin for VP and it excited no one (especially bad since he'll be a heartbeat away from POTUS). And he's a felon.

R7 is wishful thinking as it is Harris and her Republicans for Harris, who will continue the parade of Democratic wins.

Just as Reagan ushered in the 40-year corruption by the Republican Party, Harris will usher in the 40-year swing of the pendulum. Why, Capitalists have blown their wad, and we see the Supreme Court and everything that needs a constitutional Amendment.

BULLSHIT. TRUMP IS GOING TO KICK HER FAKE BLACK ASS.

The big cities will decide the election again over the sparsely-populated redneck counties and they will vote for Harris. Women, blacks, LGBTQ, the Wokes, the Under-45s...

And many people who identify as Republican are rooting for her, too. Because voting records are public now, many of them have to vote Republican or risk being ostracized (or fired?).

I have done my part and blocked R6 and R7's stupid ass as well.

There's going to be a lot of blocking over the next few months.

National polls are nice to look at and admire, but they mean little or nothing.

Every goddam presidential election the entire friggin country waits with bated breath and is beholden and enslaved to the five to seven goddamn swing states to determine the outcome. That's all that matters.

Abolish this motherfucking archaic Electoral College. Bring on the popular vote ONLY!

r38, GRRL, calm down. Deep breaths for the next six months.

Trump started out pouring so much hate into Hillary he taught his followers how to do it for all 4 years. Then he turned his hate onto biden and his followers followed but his 4 years isn't up yet, Biden is gone, so now what. I think the right is in a quandary and are not sure what they are supposed to do.

Is this sippy character Teafake or one of Defuckto's many aliases? Have another 🍸 and take a nap.

Two words: electoral college. Two percentage points are useless. Hillary got 3 million more votes than Trump

Hillary ignored PA, WI, and MI...because her campaign sucked.

Sippy is a bit trippy.

Kamala is the media's shiny new toy at the moment. The hype will die down soon and they'll become more critical of her.

But the important thing is that the Democrats are back in the race now. Trump has actual competition.

R39 You lost me with your last sentence. What are you talking about? Voting records cannot be public. That’s unconstitutional.

I think R39 meant many of those rednecks "register" as Republican, even though they might vote for Dems sometime.

Voting records aren’t but voting rolls are. I looked up my family on MY LIFE…I’m the only democrat.

R59 Voter registration records are public - always have been.

I also don't have anyone blocked (why bother ?) yet R6 and R7 do not show up for me, either.

All this coverage of Harris has made me breathe much easier the past two days. I think there's a bit of happiness in the air these days.

[quote] Kamala is the media's shiny new toy at the moment. The hype will die down soon and they'll become more critical of her.

Maybe not. Obama's 2008 run was a slam dunk. Media coverage favored him and news media made more money in that year covering the 2008 election than any other event in American history. If they are smart they will exploit the historic nature of this race and that means the hype for Kamala will not subside, they need these 3 months at fever pitch to add to the bottom line.

Kamala needs to remember how she got that almost immediate support: she said what needed to be said. She called him a predator, an abuser, a criminal. I hope she doesn't go down the Michelle Obama route of going high when they go low because, after all this time, people want him publicly bruised and beaten. We have put up with his shit for too long. Figuratively cut him open like a pig for the world to see.

The time for half measures are gone. Kamala needs to go HAM on his fat ass.

I like you, R55, R56. ITA.

I love the idea that R-6 / R-7 is paying a subscription to write supposedly incendiary posts no one can or will read. Talk about bad investment.

It looks like this poll may turn out to be an outlier. The latest YouGov poll shows the more expected continuation of past preferences, with Trump ahead of Harris by 3. We’ll have to wait to see what additional polls show to know if the level of support greatly changed as the Reuters poll indicated, or if their is a continuation of a 1% to 3% lead by Trump.

You really do not expect MSM to publish another rout until Early voting has started.

They will hide the Trumpublican hate until then to make people continue watching and to make people scared enough NOT to vote.

Jimmy Carter never went against this.

Why would people be scared to vote, R60?

I see the CNN poll today, done Monday and Tuesday, shows a result in line with previous polls, with Trump ahead of Harris by 3 points in head-to-head. The NPR poll done Monday shows Trump ahead by 1 point, again in that 1 to 3% range for Trump over Harris.

The CNN poll is encouraging:

The likely 2024 presidential election campaign between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump begins with no clear leader, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS after President Joe Biden ended his bid for reelection.

Trump holds 49% support among registered voters nationwide to Harris’ 46%, a finding within the poll’s margin of sampling error. That’s a closer contest than earlier CNN polling this year had found on the matchup between Biden and Trump.

The poll, conducted online July 22 and 23, surveyed registered voters who had previously participated in CNN surveys in April or June, both of which found Trump leading Biden by 6 points in a head-to-head matchup. Checking back in with the same people means that shifts in preferences are more likely to reflect real changes over time and not just statistical noise.

And the new poll finds some critical movement in these early days of a Harris-Trump race.

Harris hangs on to 95% of those who earlier said they supported Biden, while Trump retains the support of a slightly smaller 92% of his previous backers. Those who previously said they would support neither Biden nor Trump in a two-way matchup now split 30% for Harris and 27% for Trump, with the rest saying they’d vote for someone else or opt out of this year’s election.

Also, although YouGov shows Harris losing, Democrats can cheer that YouGov shows the party ahead by 2 points on the generic Congressional vote, indicating again the likelihood of split-ticket voting.

R45 Stop accusing me of people who you know I can’t be. You know dam well I have never expressed political sentiments in the vain of sippy cup or whatever the fuck the name is. I actually don’t know if it’s real or a concerned troll. But you know that’s not me and I think at this point you know I’m not defacto as well you just want to be a typical old white sociopath in that regard.

[quote] Trump holds 49% support among registered voters nationwide to Harris’ 46%, a finding within the poll’s margin of sampling error. That’s a closer contest than earlier CNN polling this year had found on the matchup between Biden and Trump.

Yes, that in line with expectations that Harris will do slightly better than Biden, as people who wavered about voting for Biden because of the mental acuity issue come back to the fold. There may, of course, be an offset to that, as a small percentage of Biden voters may not support Harris, but still it’s a positive net for Harris.

It's early days. This is better than what Joe was polling (said with sad affection.)

[quote] It's early days. This is better than what Joe was polling (said with sad affection.)

Again proving how wrong all the morons were who said that no one could do better than Biden was doing. I wish they could all be publicly humiliated and not get away with having made their ridiculous assertions since the debate.

She should pick Kelly as her VP. Pretty sure that would cinch it up. She can ride that I prosecuted rapists and criminals and the other guy is one - line for a win. Vance is probably happy he does not have to debate the childless old cat lady.

In the only swing states that matter - Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada - Harris' black support will be key.

I like our chances.

R68, I'm so glad all of their doom-and-gloom predictions were so quickly disproven ("It's too late! Chaos! Anarchy! Open Convention!"). And I doubt anyone will mention Allan Lichtman again this election cycle, but if they do, they can shove each and every one of those Thirteen Keys up their Dixville Notch.

Is R65 also the R6/R7 troll? If so, she's definitely a troll posting on some other sock puppet account, because I have R6/R7 blocked (as most people do) but R65 shows up.

R70 I know she’s going to win Pennsylvania. I just hope she can turn Georgia back blue.

If Democrats are going to win Georgia again, literally every black voter will have to show up. Here's hoping a black candidate will inspire them, assuming dreading Donald wouldn't already.

She's sort of likable anyway.

JOSH.

Harris only needs PA, MI and WI to win. Black voters are a significant bloc in those three states. She could lose GA, AZ and NV and still win if she gets those three.

R76 I am skeptical she will pull all 3. The black population in Georgia is double that in Michigan and Wisconsin.

But that being said there are white constituents in those states who have a legacy of voting blue more so than in Georgia.

She'll win Georgia. Black people will line up for days to vote for her. Which is entirely possible due to the shenanigans of the Georgia Republicans with their voter disenfranchisement.

I feel hopeful and excited for the first time in a long time.

[quote] Is [R65] also the [R6]/[R7] troll? If so, she's definitely a troll posting on some other sock puppet account, because I have [R6]/[R7] blocked (as most people do) but [R65] shows up.

No, the replies at r6 and r7 were both FF’d into oblivion making them not visible to everyone, whether you had the person blocked or not.

Stop thinking small! Let’s consider running the table, picking up extra Senate seats and taking back the House.

We especially need an extra Senate seat or two, in case some dumb cunt like Manchin wants to show their ass again and block judicial confirmation votes.

Hopefully, this enthusiasm for Kamala will spread to our other candidates running against GQP assholes in other races.

White suburban women are key to winning in PA, WI, and MI. Black turnout in the cities is also important.

[quote] [R76] I am skeptical she will pull all 3. The black population in Georgia is double that in Michigan and Wisconsin.

GA has Republican leadership at state level, and voting impediments. MI, WI and PA have Democratic leadership that wants to enable access to voting. I was just opining that if she got those three traditionally Blue states she would win. If I had to chose where to allocate resources it would be those three states.

R77, which of those three do you think is in doubt? Biden got them all in 2020.

[quote] She's sort of likable anyway.

She's likable enough.

[quote] She's sort of likable anyway.

For her to win, she’ll have to be a lot more likable in order to bump up the 39% approval she’s currently getting in the CNN poll.

She's going to pull Nevada without blinking, as Nevada is already a minority majority state.

The Latinos here see through the Trump immigration bullshit, and we have a great population of migrants.

With their networking, they get here and go to work. Peaceful. Taxpaying.

No drug dealers on the corner bullshit.

Have you heard the laugh? The laugh? She's crazy. Ka-MAH-la-la. Was she even born here?

Of all people, Ailes' mattress girl Megyn Kelly had the audacity to accuse Kamala of sleeping her way to the top. Bleeding cunt.

Jacky Rosen needs to hold her Senate seat here in Nevada as well.

I saw that Megyn clip, what a bunch of misogynistic crap. Just because you start it off by saying you are not slut shaming, then go on to slut shame does not absolve you of being a cunt.

Voting for Kamala Harris could support policies that affirm and protect the rights of transgender individuals, including toddlers who are exploring their gender identity. Harris has consistently advocated for LGBTQ+ rights and inclusion, emphasizing the need for comprehensive healthcare and supportive environments for transgender people. Her support for such policies aligns with efforts to provide resources, counseling, and protections for young children undergoing gender transition, ensuring their well-being and affirming their identities from an early age.

Bad, bad bot at r92. Poorest use of AI, back to the drawing board.

I thought these bargain basement trolls (example; R92) were away licking their wounds.

We should tell R92 to abandon the script and give us a really good recipe for a Key Lime Pie

There's no guarantee she'll win Georgia.

Barack Obama was a Black person on the ballot, and he lost that state both times. He only won NC once, and didn't come close to winning the rest of the Black Belt.

The current euphoria will end when people remember the crap job she has done to date, such as the border. She has been appointed to her recent roles, not gained through the electoral process. All this talk of “earning” is hilarious .

Aww, hurting much, snowflake @R97?

FUCK YOUR FEELINGS!!

Another cunt blocked at R97.

R97 = Tim Burchett.

Don't you have a klan rally somewhere to attend?

How is Harris doing in the goddamn annoying swing states?

I think what hampers Dump is Vancy Pants. He brings nothing to Dump’s ticket for the undecided voters. Plus he seems stupid and is a major flip-flopper.

You're wrong, R102. He brings that highly coveted demographic of Internet edgelords, incels, and MRAs.

R103 - who are guaranteed MAGA and not “undecided”.

I was being sarcastic.

R87 Did you say drugs. Did you say corners.

The slide-whistle racism on display here is….well, it’s not even a slide-whistle!

[quote] How is Harris doing in the goddamn annoying swing states?

Bombing.

You wish, R108.

I can't even see R108 which means it's a MAGA zombie.

She's picked up almost all of the "I hate the idea of Trump returning, but honestly, Biden might be lucky to make it to Inauguration Day at this rate" voters.

Correct, R110. R108 is just a MAGA cunt, now blocked.

R107 please indicate which posts are racist. Or are you doing that approach where ANY criticism of a POC person is rebranded as “racism” to avoid accountability.

I went through the entire thread and there was no racism. Idiots slinging that accusation endlessly have removed any significance from the word.

Don't any of you bitchy, raving, thread-hijacking queens have jobs?

The rest of us give no shit who said what to whom, or who has a better weave, or who stole your jacuzzi bronzer. Sit down and shut the fuck up! The rest of us are talking.

R115 do you, Edddwwwiinnn?

The overall poll figures don't matter at this point. It's what we start seeing in the swing states when she's been in the saddle a little while that matters.

[quote] How is Harris doing in the goddamn annoying swing states?

Per the latest poll and as expected, Trump is ahead in Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania. The race is very close in Michigan and Wisconsin. Harris is doing somewhat better than Biden was doing most recently.

[quote] The overall poll figures don't matter at this point.

They matter for showing what the race looks like at the moment. The numbers can change in the future and the polls will again matter for showing what the race looks like at that time.

Statistically a dead heat in PA as of now.

Glad you stopped talking about Nevada. Nevada is going Navy Blue and will be getting rid of the mistake Republican governor in 2026.

We have a gorgeous BLACK AG waiting to run in 2026.

R120 Coincidentally, "BLACK AG" is also what many DLers say when they open the door for their mystery date.

r121, Aaron, his amazing wife and his doctor, lawyer sons are real life Huxtables.

Historically, Black voters are under-polled.

The debates will solidify the Dems. Vance's past slams at Trump and his excuse 'once he was prez, I changed my mind' ain't gonna cut it with anyone with 1/2 an education or skeptical mind. Mayor Pete for one, would crush him, and Kamala will just cut loudmouth bully to the ground.

These polls do nothing and don't speak to the majority of who actually turn out. We saw this in 2016, don't believe the hype. Asssume Kamala's at a disadvantage and campaign accordingly. Get to know people in swing states and what they're fired up about.

Does this include who is leading in the swing states? Clinton won 48% of votes and Trump 46%.

Has the yard sign troll weighed in yet?

I saw a TikTok video of someone driving through some area and commenting that they didn’t see any Biden/Harris signs, but yard signs hadn’t been a big topic yet.

I ive in Ohio and have only seen a few Trump signs, where as before it was all Trump/Pence.