Selected key points from The Times (my bolds)
“I can tell you now, that unless something dramatic happens to Trump, I believe he’s the next president,” he says. This is a reluctant but realistic assessment from a man who once said “Donald Trump made my head explode”.
[bold]“I’ve talked to four potential Democratic presidential candidates in the last 48 hours,” he confides.[/bold]
Although we are at the Republican convention, he is gripped with the drama engulfing the Democrats over Joe Biden.
[bold]“Every single day all the people who have any influence are playing around with potential combinations,” [/bold] he says, referring to the frantic consultations and calculations by leading Democrats behind the scenes on how to move on from Biden and who to pick to take on a resurgent Trump.
“It is beyond boiling among donors and I hear from them too because many of the corporate clients that I work for are six- and seven-figure Democratic donors,” he says. “I’ve spoken to seven CEOs or billionaires in the last week who are at least half-a-million dollar donors to the Democratic Party or more, and every single one of them said ‘What do I do? We’re going to lose’.”
It was not the assassination attempt but the vibe of the Republican convention that convinced Luntz that it is all over for the Democrats, up and down the ballot.
“I was unwilling to say that until Monday night,” he says, referring to the opening night of the party meeting when Trump made his triumphant first public appearance since the shooting, in the convention arena.
“What I saw Monday night was a Republican party I’ve never seen before. Significant African-American participation, significant female participation, significant union participation. Groups that have always given Republicans a hard time are now giving Republicans a second look.”
The following night he watched as Republican Senate candidates spoke from the stage. “This is not just about the presidency, it’s also about Congress. We could be headed to a three-way victory for Republicans [White House, Senate, House of Representatives] that hasn’t happened to this degree since 2016.”
[bold]Could the Democrats turn the tide by ditching Biden and selecting an alternative candidate?[/bold]
“Yes they can but only certain people can do it,” he says. “They need three things: they need to show a measurable track record of results; they need to practice genuine accountability; and they need a detailed plan of action for the first 100 days and year of their presidency.”
This profile, that Luntz has honed in his focus groups, suggests a governor or mayor rather than a member of Congress. In his view, there are a clutch of Democrats to choose from who could make a go of it in a head-to-head with Trump. He lists potential replacements [bold]Gavin Newsom (governor of California), Gretchen Whitmer (governor of the must-win state of Michigan), Josh Shapiro (governor of the must-win state of Pennsylvania), Wes Moore (governor of Maryland), Roy Cooper (governor of North Carolina), Cory Booker (New Jersey senator and a former mayor), Pete Buttigieg (transportation secretary and a former mayor) and Mitch Landrieu (former mayor of New Orleans).[/bold]
Luntz adds that even if four per cent of voters really are undecided — and he is sceptical, he thinks they know really — [bold]he sees just three states that actually matter in deciding the election because of the American system of calculating the winner based on the states they win: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.[/bold]
“It means that we’re going to spend two billion dollars on reaching one third of one per cent of America,” he says.
“The difference between the parties — and it’s a big difference — is that every single Trump supporter is going to be a Trump voter and not every Biden supporter will be voting for Joe Biden, and that’s worth a per cent or two. That’s when I realised that Trump will win.”