Trump Can't Win, part 3

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? 538 today has Biden with a 53% chance of winning.

How is it that all the pols - seemingly relying on ghastly internal polls - have thrown in the towel with Biden at the top of the ticket, while 538 has Biden (increasingly) likely to win?!

Today, 538 has the odds of winning for both at 50%.

I didn't realize Nate Silver left 538 and has his own blog. Silver Bulletin. He thinks Trump will get 306 electoral college votes and biden gets 232.

Back to 53% odds of Biden winning in 538's forecast. It has him up 0.8% in Pennsylvania, 1.2% in Wisconsin, 2.2% in Michigan & 4.7% in Nebraska-2. And down in the other battlegrounds (0.6% in Nevada, 1.2 in Georgia, 1.4% in Arizona & 2.0 in North Carolina.

OP, in your own heading it says Trump can’t win

You follow it up with the most Biden-favored predictor which gives both candidates a nearly 50/50 shot

In the fall, Biden wins by talking abortion, abortion, abortion. That’ll get the attention of the low information voters who’ll decide the election.

I wonder how many of the Dems opposed to Biden as the nominee - as many as 65% - are not counting themselves as Biden supporters? And, in the face of Trump 2.0, how many will come home, giving Biden a boost?

Trump is so beatable.

For all our many trolls, just know that the next several months of this old, unhinged clown, Donald Trump, in our faces 24/7, is the best gift the Democrats could receive. Thank you!!!

Encouraging poll for Harris of battleground states.

r11 And that's WITH his triple convention / VP pick / assassination bumps. Stick a fork in him, he done-done.

Mark Halperin said on his morning show today that the Harris camp should be very happy about this poll of registered voters in five of the battleground states.

I just saw that the economy grew by 2.8% in the second quarter, compared to 1.4% in the first one, and analysts expecting a 1.9% growth?

Trump is so fucking done.

Unfortunately, I don't think economic growth is a winner for the Democrats this cycle, not on its own, at least. Kamala can tout it but not without acknowledging that high prices remain a big problem.

I think the Biden administration did a fantastic job managing the macro economy but really faltered at understanding and responding to the financial concerns of the average American.

Biden isn't the one who sets the interest rate.

[quote]but really faltered at understanding and responding to the financial concerns of the average American.

Household spending has shot up like crazy in this latest data dump, so the average American seems to be doing just fine with the inflation now eased.

[quote] I think the Biden administration did a fantastic job managing the macro economy but really faltered at understanding and responding to the financial concerns of the average American.

Biden's biggest failing - and it was a major one - was his inability to use the presidency's bully pulpit. He needed to explain at the outset why Covid & its governmental response (to avert another Great Depression) - over two administrations - had unleashed inflationary pressures, how it was a worldwide phenomenon, & his (successful) efforts to combat inflation without resulting in a universally-predicted recession. That and his failure to articulated strongly & repeatedly the case for supporting a fledgling democracy in Ukraine against the imperial ambitions of an autocratic Russia.

Another new battleground state poll.

Yet another reason Trump has to lose. He cannot be allowed to get credit for the good economy he'd be inheriting (like the credit he got among his supporters for the strong Obama economy he inherited)

More encouraging polling news.

The co-writer of Game Change who is not John Heilemann today said that, although he doesn't agree with this sentiment - still so early - he has heard, unsolicited, from a number of Republicans who have worked on national campaigns who have said that the race is effectively over, that Trump cannot win. One told him that independents were only giving Trump a second look was because of Biden's mental acuity issues. That independents won't care what Trump does to Harris because they hate him so much.

Trump's problems with women may well doom him.

The co-writer of Game Change who is not John Heilemann today said that many "smart Republicans" are now telling him that the race is over; Trump cannot win.

The A+-rated Marquette Poll now has Harris up 5/6 among registered/likely voters nationwide.

Isn’t likely and registered usually separate?

I'll rest easy in January. Vigilance until then.

R26:

[quote] A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Vice President Kamala Harris is the choice for president of 52% of registered voters and former President Donald Trump is the choice of 48%. Among likely voters, Harris receives 53% and Trump 47%. These results include voters who initially did not choose Harris or Trump but who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose.

Pat Toomey's refusal to endorse Trump could be key in Pennsylvania.

And the Harris endorsement by John McCain's son is good for her chances in Arizona.