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Cook Political Report Shifts Key U.S. Senate Race Away From the Democrats

The Cook Political Report shifted its rating for the key Nevada U.S. Senate race on Wednesday, moving it from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up.”

The move by the highly respected, non-partisan publication is certainly unwelcome news for Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Democrats facing an uphill battle to retain their majority in the U.S. Senate. Republicans are eyeing several seats held by Democrats in deep red states like West Virginia, Montana, and even Ohio, which has been safely in the Trump column in recent years. Schumer currently holds a 51-49 majority in his caucus and can only afford to lose one seat and keep the majority — if Democrats retain the White House.

First-term Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is up for reelection in the perennial swing state, where President Joe Biden remains unpopular.

Cook’s Senate and Governors Editor Jessica Taylor wrote up the analysis for why Nevada had shifted right, saying, “Ultimately we are moving this race because of the unique forces at play in Nevada. A combination of a newer electorate that Rosen must win over, Biden’s lagging numbers and the unique post-COVID economic hangover in Nevada make this race a Toss Up.”

Sam Brown, a U.S. Army veteran, leads the pack of half a dozen plus Republicans vying to take on Rosen in the general election. Nevada’s primary is June 11th and the race shifting away from Rosen even before her opponent has been decided is an ominous indicator of the troubled waters she faces.

𝑻𝒂𝒚𝒍𝒐𝒓 𝒂𝒅𝒅𝒆𝒅 𝒊𝒏 𝒉𝒆𝒓 𝒆𝒙𝒑𝒍𝒂𝒏𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒄𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝑹𝒐𝒔𝒆𝒏’𝒔 𝒂𝒅𝒔 𝒂𝒓𝒆 “𝒄𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒍𝒚 𝒅𝒆𝒔𝒊𝒈𝒏𝒆𝒅 𝒕𝒐 𝒔𝒆𝒑𝒂𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒔𝒆𝒍𝒇 𝒇𝒓𝒐𝒎 𝑷𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝑱𝒐𝒆 𝑩𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒅𝒓𝒂𝒈 𝒉𝒆 𝒄𝒐𝒖𝒍𝒅 𝒃𝒆 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒆.”

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by Anonymousreply 4May 15, 2024 10:39 AM

Angela Alsobrooks’s insurgent win in the Maryland Democratic Senate primary yesterday should be helpful in ensuring that Maryland - of all places - doesn’t flip to Larry Hogan, the very popular former Republican governor who’s currently in the lead in early polls. Turnout will be key & the opportunity to elect the first woman, the first Black, to the Senate from Maryland will drive that. We have enough to worry about in Ohio & Montana to have to be too concerned with deep blue Maryland.

by Anonymousreply 1May 15, 2024 8:51 AM

^ My bad. Barbara Mikulski was a longtime senator from Maryland.

by Anonymousreply 2May 15, 2024 8:58 AM

Larry Hogan’s current lead in the polls is yet another reason not to place too much emphasis on polls so far out. Most voters don’t really engage in elections until the fall.

by Anonymousreply 3May 15, 2024 9:04 AM

From WaPo:

"Republicans privately believe Alsobrooks will be more difficult to beat than Trone would have been. But without Trone’s deep pockets, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and its allies will have to spend significant resources to defend the seat in what was already going to be an extremely expensive cycle with Democrats having to defend so many seats. The DSCC launched digital ads minutes after polls closed, pointing out what could be considered politically problematic in the Senate race — that Hogan is a “lifelong Republican.”"

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by Anonymousreply 4May 15, 2024 10:39 AM
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