Trump leads in all swing states except for Wisconsin

full poll

WSJ poll. Bought and paid for.

Nonsense.

Well yes polling involves the process of buying the services of a polling firm.

Are we going to do this every single day until the election?

Probably. They are desperate to make him look like a winner.

Poor Op will be grayed out now. All polls are Russian lies unless Biden wins.

Trump will sadly win in November. This country is beyond lost.

Numbers don't add up. PA is trending bluer since 2018. Look at the results from 2022 and 2023. PA-based poll Susquehanna (which is very reliable) has Biden with a 5 point lead in PA

Well clearly your poll is the absolute truth r8.

Polls at this stage are meaningless. And all polls before the March primary races overstated Trump’s popularity.

How convenient r8 cites a poll from the middle of January

Spin, little Federalist Society trollfarm employees, spin!

Technically the Federalist Society would support a Biden reelection given that an extremely weakened, unpopular Biden would lack a mandate and have a catastrophic second term with Republicans likely controlling Congress all four years; with 2028 delivering the promise of an efficient Republican technocrat who would govern without the distractions and erratic behavior of Trump. The Federalist Society would also enjoy seeing a deeply unpopular Democratic administration further alienate Gen Z.

Oh look. Another Trump thread.

R13: Federalist Society Trollfarm Employee of the Month

Laaaaalaaaaaallaaaaaaaaaaa

Trump will not win in November.

What r17 said.

Trump will be crushed in November.

Just like in 2020 when he lost fair and square to Joseph Robinette Biden.

Remember that Trumpism never aligned with Federalist Society fetishes like free trade.

If Biden is Paul von Hindenberg, think of the Federalist Society as the Communist Party, which actively supported Hindenberg’s failure even if it aligned them with their enemies, the Nazis.

R11, no, the poll I cited is from March.

How beautifully rich it would be if Trump were to lose due to the abortion issue, something he’s only cynically used in the past. As desperate as he is to win & remain a free man, it wouldn’t surprise me if he came out as pro-choice.

And, btw, the poll I cited polled over 450 Pennsylvanians. The WSJ poll only polled 100 people per state

R6: OP

Biden is extremely unpopular, which is concerning. However, he’s going to have an absolute shitload of money going into the fall. If his ad people figure out how to use all that cash to sway swing staters, and if they build a strong ground game, he should be able to win.

Trump is going to lose bigly. He is incredibly unpopular as are all his sycophants.

Realclear still shows an average of polls indicating a Trump win in 2024, but the gap is narrowing.

Real clear is reich wing crap.

His followers think he's like Jesus. They are severely disturbed.

[quote]—Fingers in ear. Totally oblivious to train ahead.

But enough about the delusions of Trump supporters.

Speaking of delusional, how about every congressional election this year that had the D and R candidates tied for months, then was a total blue blowout?

Polls are weaponized horseshit.

R26, after 2022, I cannot believe any honest broker would take seriously the RCP averages of polls. RCP leans heavily to the right & includes a host of inferior, Republican-centered, polls, skewing the averages in the direction of the Republican candidate.

I remember the 2022 polls, where we were told the Senate races in places like New Hampshire and Washington were gonna be horseraces but the Dem incumbents won easily. The media likes to play up "horseraces" because that's more entertaining than races where the result in a foregone conclusion

[quote] Biden is extremely unpopular, which is concerning. However, he’s going to have an absolute shitload of money going into the fall.

Yay oligarchs !

Well in the case of the New York special election

Democrat Tom Suozzi has decided it would be better for Biden to stay away, and Republican nominee Mazi Pilip spent much of the race brushing off Trump before welcoming his help in the final stretch. Suozzi went as far as piling on Biden’s chief vulnerability in a televised interview Monday, acknowledging the president’s advanced age — a problem exacerbated last week by special counsel Robert Hur’s report describing him as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”

“The bottom line is, he’s old,” Suozzi told FOX 5 New York. “I mean, he’s 81 years old.” He then hedged on whether Biden would be the Democratic nominee after the party’s August convention in Chicago.

I do wonder why people say having money on hand will save everything

Look what happened to Nikki Haley

So you bought an advertisement. Good for you! People don’t watch advertising anymore.

R35, they may not watch advertising on television like they once did, but there’s no escaping it when they’re online.

The media is trying to make it look close to keep viewers interested. Alabama just turned a state house seat blue. Alabama. Trump is toast and these threads are exhausting.

Another Trumptard thread from a troll who cannot handle the truth: that Jabba the Trump has never won an election. No, the EC is not an election, Einstein. Also, don’t forget the 2000 Reform Party race which he lost to Pat Buchanan. Twitler is a lifelong loser, you will never change that.

TPTB have already decided on a Newsom 2024 victory. Biden v Trump is just Soros-funded red meat dished up to satiate the lamestream media and the shadowy, international Jewery.

R39, how do you envision Newsom wresting the nom at this late date? In an open primary, he arguably could’ve won. But at this point only Harris could be the nominee if Biden is not.

[quote]after 2022, I cannot believe any honest broker would take seriously the RCP averages of polls. RCP leans heavily to the right & includes a host of inferior, Republican-centered, polls, skewing the averages in the direction of the Republican candidate.

538, now owned by ABC News, shows the same results.

The overwhelming majority of polls show Trump winning in 2024. Although recent polling shows Biden gaining.

R40, Biden can release his delegates at the convention. Then the delegates can line up behind Newsom or anyone.

R41, I don’t dispute that most polls show Trump leading at this early stage, but I do object to any use of the RCP average of polls. They were thoroughly discredited in ‘22.

[quote]but I do object to any use of the RCP average of polls.

Their average of polls show THE SAME results as 538. But OK.

Cheesus Christ, people.

Polls measure. Polls DON'T predict.

And there are variables to getting that measurement, including how are the questions phrased? What demographic as responding to a poll?

And, biggest variable is, who is funding the poll?

I'm not arguing that polls generated in, say, September, are devoid of any trends that may form a credible basis for a prediction on who will win an election in November, but right now?

nope.

Biden is going to lose this. This is Hillary 2016 all over again. I just know it.

[quote]after 2022, I cannot believe any honest broker would take seriously the RCP averages of polls. RCP leans heavily to the right & includes a host of inferior, Republican-centered, polls, skewing the averages in the direction of the Republican candidate.

Considering that you only consider a poll to be legitimate if it has Biden in the lead, you cannot be taken seriously.

[quote]I'm not arguing that polls generated in, say, September, are devoid of any trends that may form a credible basis for a prediction on who will win an election in November, but right now?

You know who is taking these polls, even at this stage, very seriously?

The Biden administration.

Good, r48.

Measure multiple times. Cut once. In November.

C'mon trolls, put *some* effort into it.

Republicans will not control Congress and will be lucky to retain the Senate.

Joe Biden is not in the huge polling hole that Justin Trudeau of Canada and Rishi Sunak of the UK are, both of whom face likely defeat over the next year.

However, I do think Biden is going to need to make up some more ground between now and November. His numbers appear to have improved marginally over the past several weeks, and that is a positive sign for him. But in order to overcome the disproportionate advantage that Republicans have in the Electoral College, he will want to bring up his numbers several more points from where they are as of now.

And at the same time Turd is mentally declining. Still lying about the 2020 election; obsessively trashing people online despite his gag order; initiating a new lawsuit; endorsing embarrassing products...

They're propping him up and keeping him alive because they desperately need him back in the White House.

The trial starting April 15th is going to be a circus.

R52, Biden’s poll numbers have increased because more & more Dems have been coming home. That pattern will be become increasingly evident throughout the summer & fall as they grasp, however reluctantly, that it is Biden, & only Biden, who stands in the way of another Trump presidency. Trump’s support, on the other hand, has essentially maxed-out.

[quote]TPTB have already decided on a Newsom 2024 victory. Biden v Trump is just Soros-funded red meat dished up to satiate the lamestream media and the shadowy, international Jewery.

Are you the Biden is stepping down during the SOTU, no, on March 31, troll? I haven't seen him/you around the last few days, unsurprisingly.

The March 31 troll is going to rebrand himself into the “Remember Bobby Kennedy was killed in June” troll.

Hi yes I have two theories now

1) a march 31 announcement was thrown off by the collapse of the francis scott key bridge, which was decided was look too optically bad to have him drop out before addressing (he visits tomorrow)

2) the donors have simply decided it is necessary for Democrats to lose this election. Biden is in an unrecoverable trajectory.

I am leaning toward the second.

I do think a Biden defeat will largely be driven by young voters, and people of color, deciding both sides are the same and it doesn’t matter who wins, and staying home or nihilistically voting for Trump. Hillary Clinton actually put this into stark perspective last night, saying that you have no choice but Biden and Trump but one “has heart and really cares about people” while hours earlier the Biden administration trotted out Donald Rums, I’m sorry, John Kirby to defend Israel.

This is the kind of reaction you are going to start seeing.

The problem that is now going to arise is Chicago.

The convention is at the United Center, the United Center is on the west side, which is largely Black, and within walking distance of the University of Illinois at Chicago, which is notoriously left-wing (Bill Ayers taught there) with a large minority enrollment. If Biden is still the nominee by August, they have the perfect conditions for repeating 1968.

I see r59 got their latest right-wing memorandum bullet points.

R60

No

I am merely thinking like how I got my teeth into politics

As an antiwar leftist in Chicago who went to the University of Illinois

Fun fact, I got my photograph on the front of a newspaper holding a poster with George Bush’s face photoshopped on Osama bin Laden’s head!

Kerry lost btw.

Regarding Newsom (also my theory)

The Rubicon for replacing Biden with Newsom was March 31. Anything beyond that will simply result in a Newsom loss.

I can give some elasticity to the date being pushed back a week due to the bridge collapse, but anything further, if enacted, would merely result in changing captains on the Titanic.

[quote] The problem that is now going to arise is Chicago.

Honestly that hadn't before crossed my mind. But yes.

I approve but Joe better watch out. Sirhan Sirhan wrote he was mad at Bobby Kennedy for approving the sale of fifty F-4 Phantoms to Israel.

Some points about the 68 DNC

the protests happened far from the venue, which was near the Stockyards. The protests happened in Grant Park.

Assuming the city establishes a cordon of Damen/Washington/Adams/Ashland

It will exclude Malcolm X College, almost entirely Black

That is where the protests will center

If the cordon goes all the way to the Eisenhower, the protests will center at the University of Illinois at Chicago

I don't listen to polls but the WI governor's veto yesterday of the bill to protect females and female spaces will not help Biden.

Whatever the outcome all hell will break loose.

If Trump wins, well, I don't need to outline why that would be bad. But if he loses, the election fraud allegations will be off the charts. January 6 will look mild in comparison.

October will be brutal for Trump, as Biden and the Democrats will read him for PUBLIC filth for the evil criminal he is.

I would not be surprised if the Pecker Catch & Kill NDAs were SOMEHOW released as the October Surprise.

Biden knows that he still has to run the country until then, but Republicans are running out of levers to pull.

Trump has been read for filth for eight years.

[quote] October will be brutal for Trump, as Biden and the Democrats will read him for PUBLIC filth for the evil criminal he is.

Yeah, although that hasn’t stopped Trump leading in the race so far, in October it will somehow have effect.

Reading him for filth has no impact, though.

He just says: "This is all fake news, guys. These folks will say and do anything to keep me out of the White House."

And his fans will cheer adoringly.

Not by Biden. When Biden starts attacking him PERSONALLY, like Republicans have gone after Hunter, it will not be pretty.

The only person who would be able to attack Trump effectively would be Gavin Newsom.

While, I realize that as a former resident, proud Milwaukeean myself, we're the dull little sister to our 90 miles away toddlin' town Chicago, I think the potential is there for the RNC to be just as wild.

The Repugs benefit from all of the logistical arrangements that were developed when the convention was to be in Milwaukee in 2020.

Protesters will be cordoned off far from the Fiserv Arena, but, whatever, I think trouble is coming to town.

Trump could come out as pro-choice tomorrow and not lose a single evangelical vote.

[quote] October will be brutal for Trump, as Biden and the Democrats will read him for PUBLIC filth for the evil criminal he is.

Differentiating October from any other month since Hillary crashed and burned ?

Wait...we were promised Biden would step aside and annoint Newsom Sunday night.

What happened?

R79

Very clearly I was wrong and the donors simply want the Democrats to lose the election.

Maybe it’s a “Producers” type situation.

It's one thing to vote for Trump.

But it's a completely different story to vote for Trump AFTER we saw what he did from 2017 to 2021, which was absolutely nothing. Other than giving his golfing buddies a huge tax break and getting verbal blow jobs from Sean Hannity, Trump didn't do jack shit in his first term, including not providing a decent health care plan, not stopping the border crisis, and allowing COVID-19 to wreck the economy by doing nothing about it and pretending it would go away in the heat of the summer 2020 weather.

The donors may have decided that no Democrat could win this year and it was better to sink the ship.

zzzzz

The reason why it needed to be March 31 is because any later, surpassing Johnson’s March 31 announcement, if they were to switch out the nominees and the Democrats STILL lose, Biden would always be personally blamed for a second Trump presidency, for waiting too long.

[quote]Very clearly I was wrong and the donors simply want the Democrats to lose the election.

I'm glad your past failures as a prognosticator haven't deterred you from making further ridiculous pronouncements.

At least I’m not the one counting on Uncle Billy from It’ a Wonderful Life to save us from fascism.

Democrats on November 6

"I do think a Biden defeat will largely be driven by young voters"

Same slackers who derailed Hillary. 'Cankles' was a boomer who reminded them of their mom so they voted for Jill Stein, etc. How'd that work out for you?

I think Hillary’s loss is more attributable to the abandonment by the white working class/union voters

Biden's gots this.

I think Hillary’s loss is more attributable to t̵h̵e̵ ̵a̵b̵a̵n̵d̵o̵n̵m̵e̵n̵t̵ ̵b̵y̵ 𝒉𝒆𝒓 𝒖𝒏𝒅𝒊𝒔𝒈𝒖𝒊𝒔𝒆𝒅 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒕 𝒇𝒐𝒓 the white working class/union voters

^ Who had a serious case of misogyny.

R80 You are a tedious troll who thinks women are going to sit back and have their rights further erode away. You are a pig who doesn't think women have the competence to make decisions that best preserve and protect their interests. Trump is a mad man and anyone denying it is willfully ignorant. Just fuck off. The media is playing this for ratings. Election years are the equivalent of "sweeps" for them.

r88, The Republicans under Reagan destroyed the Savings and Loans of the financial industry.

Waiting for them to fuck up the Credit Unions.

[quote] You are a pig who doesn't think women have the competence to make decisions that best preserve and protect their interests.

R95 No, I simply understand that there are enough women who do not view access to abortions as a primary motivation for their political choices. Many women do not even believe in abortion. You are the one who has demarcated women as “voting cattle” to be herded into the voting booth every November, where they are obligated to vote for one party who has FAILED, despite many many chances, to enact a federal law protecting abortion rights, because not having one was a useful tool to blackmail voters every four years. Forty-two percent of women voted AGAINST Hillary Clinton in 2016. Why do you think they will suddenly change like a school of fish changing direction?

[quote] The majority of non-college educated white women (64%) voted for Trump

These are the people who need access to family planning MOST. They voted against it because of race and class solidarity.

R96 Hillary Clinton is a cunt who thought she could win without campaigning. Also, her passing out at a public event didn't help. Not to mention all the propaganda being posted around the clock by Russian trolls. Garbage that Zuckerberg refused to remove from Facebook. Back in 2016 we didn't have Tik Tok. FB was the main social media and the garbage that was allowed to stay on the site, including a "recording" of her laughing at a teen rape client she had once represented. Get real. The bitch had baggage and refused to acknowledge it. Times have changed and the radical court and their decisions have drastically changed things.

R98, rimming Trump fatigue just has to be setting in.

See r94?

R98 is your ally.

Maybe you two should fuck or something.

R100 All kidding aside, this site needs a chat feature for a multitude of reasons.

It's going to be a LONG summer.

[quote] It's going to be a LONG summer.

Come to think of it the 1968 democratic convention was concurrent with the Russian invasion of Czechoslovakia. I wonder who they attack this time.

University of Wisconsin went 30% uncommitted Tuesday

10,342 votes flipped would have given Wisconsin to Trump in 2020.

20,683 non-voters would have turned the state red.

The uncommitted vote was 47,846.

[quote]I simply understand that there are enough women who do not view access to abortions as a primary motivation for their political choices.

Women's healthcare is the tip of the civil rights iceberg. Women know that Roe need to be reinstated, and their cunts need to be decriminalized for FDA approved drugs, IVF, contraception, and ultimately the Right to Privacy that the Leo/Crow Court shit canned under shit canning Stare Decisis.

Got LIES, Amy?

Access to abortion medical services is part of the Anti-women criminalization of the American Vagina.

We know the underlying motivation for the Republican motivation is that, ultimately, MEN ARE NO LONGER NECESSARY in the workforce.

Biden leads Trump 48%-38% in Pennsylvania in new poll.

New Pennsylvania poll from Franklin & Marshall shows Biden 10 points ahead of Trump in a two-way race (48% to 38%) but with a 2-percentage point lead when you throw in the third-party candidates.

[quote] New Pennsylvania poll from Franklin & Marshall shows Biden 10 points ahead of Trump in a two-way race (48% to 38%) but with a 2-percentage point lead when you throw in the third-party candidates.

One thing we can observe with confidence is that the high water mark for third-party candidates is ALWAYS well before the election.

[quote]Access to abortion medical services is part of the Anti-women criminalization of the American Vagina.

I think you mean FRONT HOLE, bigot.

The WSJ poll that was conducted through 3/24 had Trump 3 point ahead of Biden. In one week, for no apparent reason, the results shift by 13 percentage point to Biden? The F&M poll is why the public has deservedly lost faith in the polling industry.

"Biden leads Trump 48%-38% in Pennsylvania in new poll. Why this is bad news for Biden."

r110 actually I meant cunt, CUNT!

[quote] One thing we can observe with confidence is that the high water mark for third-party candidates is ALWAYS well before the election.

Yes, disaffected groups are already moving toward Biden.

“No Labels” was always a Democratic leaning effort, trying to seem neutral to attract disaffected Republicans. Not surprisingly, they couldn’t find enough to make it worthwhile and so are doing the inevitable and giving up. Republican know as well as Democrats that third party candidates are only spoilers.