Former President Donald Trump (44%) leads President Biden (42%) in a head-to-head 2024 election matchup for the first time in months, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll.
The survey of 1,584 U.S. adults, which was conducted from Nov. 9 to 13, also shows that a clear majority of them now share concerns over Biden’s age and competence that were once largely limited to partisan opponents, suggesting an uphill battle ahead for the 80-year-old president as he seeks a second term.
The trend lines are stark. Today, a full 54% of Americans say that Biden, the oldest Oval Office occupant in U.S. history, no longer has “the competence to carry out the job of president,” up from 41% in June 2020 and 49% as recently as February of this year.
Meanwhile, less than a third of Americans (31%) still think Biden, who turns 81 next week, is competent. In August 2021 — seven months into his presidency — that number was 15 points higher (46%), and just since February it has fallen an additional 4 points (from 35%).
Worries over the president’s “health and mental acuity” have followed a similar arc. In June 2020, most Americans (52%) said they were “slightly concerned” or “not concerned” about the issue, while fewer (48%) said they were “somewhat concerned” or very concerned.”
But now, a mere 36% say they are slightly concerned or not concerned — and 64% say they are somewhat concerned or very concerned.
To counter such fears, Biden’s supporters often note that his likely opponent, the 77-year-old Trump, is only three and a half years his junior, and that the Democrat’s busy schedule and substantive list of accomplishments contradict the Republican caricature of a hapless senior citizen.
The problem, however, is that the public isn’t buying their argument — at least not yet. More Americans say Trump is “fit to be president” (38%) than say the same about Biden (24%, down from 27% in September).
And a full 80% now say Biden’s age is at least a small problem, up from 77% in September — while 55% say it’s a large problem (up from 52%).
To test the deeper dynamics influencing perceptions of age and competence, Yahoo News and YouGov asked respondents how much they have “heard in the media” about various political stories “over the last few years.”
Unfortunately for Biden, less than a quarter of Americans have “heard a lot” about his signature legislative achievements: “Congress passing a law that will enable Medicare to negotiate lower prescription drug prices” (23%); “Congress passing infrastructure investments in 2021” (20%); “Congress passing climate and clean-energy investments in 2022” (18%); and “Congress passing a gun safety law in 2022” (14%).
In contrast, far more Americans have heard a lot about Biden “physically stumbling at public events” (47%); making “verbal gaffes” (41%) and “falling asleep at public events” (33%).
It’s not particularly surprising, then, that just under a quarter of Americans (24%) think Biden has accomplished “a lot” as president.
The split screen with Trump is telling here. Despite being the second-oldest president in U.S. history — and despite 40% of Americans saying they’ve heard a lot about his verbal gaffes as well — the Republican has suffered almost no rise in worries about his competence or age since 2020.
Right now, 43% of Americans say Trump has the competence to carry out the job of president, and less than half (44%) say they are concerned about his health and mental acuity. In the summer of 2020, those numbers were 44% and 46%, respectively.
At the same time, 39% of Americans think Trump accomplished a lot as president — 15 points higher than Biden’s rating on the same question.