OFFICIAL 2022 Mid-Terms Polling Thread

I’m surprised anybody would vote for dog killing fraud doctor Oz

Suburban women won’t be voting for a sloppy oaf of guy who looks like Slaw and has a goiter on the back of his neck. They just won’t.

They’ll vote for that guy that’s been on The Oprah Winfrey show instead.

Just sayin’

Slaw?

Where is Poll Troll?

Gretchen is pulling away!

R3 sorry - it’s slaw or sloth?

It is the character in the film “the Goonies”

R2 is a perfect example of a troll who comes here to spread misinformation, fear, and extremely bad political takes. This person has zero knowledge and no relationship to the race in question, and just spouts nonsense meant to upset and worry Democratic voters. It's pure ignorance masquerading as truth telling, and it would be embarrassing if it wasn't so prevalent on Datalounge. What's truly embarrassing is the number of people here who accept the R2s of the world as genuine and sincere, and parrot the same dumb talking points as if they actually know anything.

Thank you, OP, for being a problem solver and reining it all in to one thread.

That’s a statistical tie.

R7.. I’m in Pa so I definitely have a knowledge and relationship to this race.

Fetterman needs that suburban white women vote - you know... the kind that live in the Philly burbs that are of the middle aged demo. Say the typical woman who lives in ...oh I dunno... Upper Makefield Township. The kind that use to have their “hate has no home here” Signs on their front yards.. but that was a few years ago. A lot has changed. They are a bit more on the fence now.... why you ask?

topics of school board meetings started popping up on their Facebook feeds last year. They would never actually attend one - especially if those nasty deplorables were there - .. but they became (silently) queasy when they discovered what was actually being discussed at these meetings. Certain school books were being put in the grade school curriculum that made them sick to their stomachs..

And then comes Fetterman vs. Oz.

They grew up in the 80’s... when they were kids “the Goonies” was one of the biggest films out there in their demo. They all remember - and cringe - at the site of Sloth...and Fetterman is the spitting image. Plus he’s on the side of those inappropriate books being pushed onto those little Kids.

They also watched Oprah when they could during their mid to late 20’s - hell they may have catched her at 4pm show as a late teen after a college class here and there - they love O, they know Oz. He’s familiar. He was friends with O. That’s good enough for them.

They’ll vote for that guy.

It’s pretty simple really.

Polls say: We’re fucked.

Only hope is a TON of new voters motivated by Roe who are being missed by the polls.

But abortion issue isn’t going to work as much as dems think.

Take that middle aged voter I discussed at r10... she had her kids via IVF - after trying to get pregnant without success (all that damn Diet Coke in college must have messed her up) her and her hubby went that route instead. They popped out a few kids and she still has a frozen embryo “just in case” she has the urge for another baby and will just pay a surrogate this time around - because for some reason she seems to be headed towards early menopause.. no sure why.

She’s more (silently) concerned about her eldest daughters fertility ... let’s call her Emma. Emma started getting her period at 13, same age she was. Emma’s always had a regular period. No problems whatsoever.. but then something changed ... Emma got vaccinated so she could go back to living at the dorms at Bryn Mayr. Her period completely stopped for 4 months. Now it’s back - but very sporadically. The doc assured them everything will be fine - it must just be something environmental - maybe stress or climate change.. but she secretly regrets ever taking her daughter to Walgreens for that shot. She wouldn’t dare talk about it to her friends - but they all give each other knowing glances that something is wrong with everyone’s cycles..

Dems need more than abortion.

Haven't followed it closely, but has Oprah said anything? What if she came out in support of Fetterman? Could Obama get her to do that?

That’s beneath me.

I’ll send Gayle

R10? (AKA R2)

"They also watched Oprah when they could during their mid to late 20’s - hell they may have catched her at 4pm show..."

JFC, you jackass -- and this is just ONE of your hellish spelling/grammatical errors.

Please, please tell me you were educated outside of PA, because I don't want to believe that my home state's schools are turning out morons like you.

R14 Oprah has commented and she is staying out of it.

Sorry - Even O knows shits so fucked up - she’s not gonna say anything.

R16 it’s called typos on a cell phone mixed with a new set on contacts (they are a new script - my trial pair - Toric Multi focal lenses that give off too much glare)

Don't even try to tell me your cell phone let you type in the word "catched."

Try harder.

Georgia Senate race allegedly tied.

Ok r19 - you probably think Sloth is attractive.

Gross.

This is the elephant in the room and why Dems focusing on abortion this time around won’t work as much as they think it will.

Women’s are more (silently) worried about their fertility, not aborting babies.

Concern about one's own fertility has nothing to do with whether one thinks abortion should be available for 10-year-old incest victims, R22. What an odd leap.

R23, theyre more concerned that the perpetrators of those 10 year old Incest victims are being released without even having to post bail

R2/r10, You are ignorant. Girls weren't the "Goonies" demographic.

But more to the point, you don't have a clue about women's fantasies. Let's just say they do not involve Jersey Boy Oz.

And you know this fertility concern of women, how?

R12, You're weird.

Trafalgar polls are about as reliable as Donald Trump's home scale.

They always inflate the R candidate by 3-5 points, if not more.

R17 Figures that twat would "stay out of it." The bitch has unleashed several of these lunatics on American pop culture, and made a boatload of cash off of them, but now that they're causing real damage, she's nowhere to be seen.

I can't believe American women still worship this monster like she's some kind of goddess.

I am worried about Fetterman in the debate. He was never particularly articulate, and he only prepped a little bit for the primary debate. Dr. Oz is a master hyper and salesman, very smooth and articulate.

Joe Biden -- "former" stutterer -- never did well in debates. I could see him word-switching as he went, and he came across as doddering and confused. Fetterman will do the same. Pennsylvanians are not particularly sophisticated about these things.

Just in time for maximum mid-term impact, House Republicans have introduced a federal "Don't Say Gay" bill.

R31 Yes, because there's a full calendar of federally-funded educational events involving both children and strong sexual content.

These assholes will do anything to get out of doing a real day's work.

I am an NJ woman so the Oz/Fetterman thing doesn't apply to me, but Oz is NOT more attractive. He is creepy and off-putting. I would never vote for a Republican, but if I didn't care about that, I would still find Oz to be super creepy.

Diet Coke did not screw up my fertility at all. I have guzzled the stuff since college.

The covid vaccine has not messed up my daughter's cycle. Also, if I had a daughter in college who hadn't gotten her period in four months, I would be pretty sure she was pregnant, and would be super concerned about the availability of abortion.

I think Fetterman will win, but he'll only have one term and be unpopular for most of it.

Republicans hate Oz, they aren't going to turn out for him.

Nancy Pelosi appeared on Morning Joe yesterday and dismissed recent polling as outliers that did not have big samples.

Also from Morning Joe yesterday, Steve Kornacki giving a detailed breakdown including comparisons with historic data. Republicans are indeed leading overall.

This Pennsylvania election is just so weird. Why would they choose Dr. Oz, of all people? He's sleazy and condescending. And just for the icing on top, isn't he Muslim? It's not just women who have to decide who they are going to vote for. Are men in Pennsylvania really going to choose Dr. Oz? I don't know much about Fetterman except that his wife looks like she's into steampunk style and he had a stroke, but I assume most people would vote for him over Oz.

R37 I doubt enthusiastically, but I agree. I think they'll have an unusually low turnout.

R30, We voted for Joe. We will vote for John. And Josh.

Your assessment of Debate Biden as "doddering" is very telling; i.e., you are a RWNJ troll.

Speech patterns, habits, or even pathologies did not before and will not now deter or deflect us from our Blue Route (Pennsylvanians get it; Oz wouldn't) in November.

You are an idiot to (mis-)characterize us as "not particularly.... blah de blah blah."

R34, You should live so long.

R40 Bitch what'd I do to you?

Oh good for you r33, you’re one of the special cases. Btw, Not everyone is like you. Guess what - there is a world out there where mothers and daughters actually have close relationships.

Some women whose daughter stopped having her period and confides to her mother that this has happened (duh) after getting a mandated experimental shot take their kid to the doctor for a medical evaluation. They don’t just assume she’s pregnant.

Hell not only are they less Concerned about abortion they secretly think more about about it...and how it can now benefit them and theirs..if future fertility issues arise.

If their spawns fertility is in danger it actually would be in their best interest to have a bigger inventory available of adoptable babies - hell maybe her daughter will be able to score a white newborn. Suddenly abortion is a non issue to this voter.

Typical that you don’t listen to others experiences - but use only your own as proof that this isn’t a huge problem facing millions of women today. It’s actually the typical democrats way of thinking...I already posted the latest study - but since it didn’t effect you, in your world - it clearly isn’t effecting ANYONE else - despite the data that’s been presented. Additionally, More and more studies are coming out everyday regarding this issue.

Don’t any of ya’ll have friends? Do you ever find it strange that many women in this demo had to resort to IVF over the past 2 decades to to have a child? The increase In numbers is startling. What could possibly correlate with that - oh I dunno - asparateme introduced In the early 80’s sounds about right.

R25 Goonies was watched by all kids in the 80’s - boys and girls.

Some of you really love living in this clown world -Or your just paid to push this nonsense. I’m betting it’s a 50/50 split. Some are clowns, some are brainwashed clowns, some are just paid to promote this circus. To those paid posters - I actually don’t blame you. The economy sucks so bad you need to do what you gotta do for a paycheck.

Just a fun aside, isn't the guy running for governor of PA the one who was doing an interview, and then his teen son walked into the room playing a video game or something? That was very funny, and cute.

I applaud your rich, full fantasy life, R42.

Polls are pretty meaningless at this point.

Fewer and fewer people have land lines (DL's Eldergay population excepted)

Many people with mobile phones do not answer calls from unknown numbers of they have them blocked.

Given the massive amount of spam phone calls, even people with land lines rarely answer calls from unknown numbers

And so the people who do respond are not a representative sample. Oftentimes they are people with an agenda who want to tell pollsters how they feel about a candidate or how much they hate the other candidate, etc.

This is why they have been so wildly inaccurate as of late.

Holy cow R42. So you're saying that there is some huge population of women who grew up in the 80's who are infertile because of Diet Coke, but somehow have teen and young adult daughters who aren't getting their periods because of Covid vaccines? Well, I'm saying that those things are not true of everybody. Also, I have never seen Goonies, but I am probably a little bit old for that. I started drinking Diet Coke in college, and pretty much lived on it for large periods of time. I'm not recommending that as a lifestyle, but it did not screw up my fertility. What did screw up fertility for SOME women I know was waiting until around age 40 to try to become pregnant. Now, obviously, not every woman meets her husband in time to have kids in her 30's, and no one really knows what to do with that except to freeze eggs. We were raised thinking that we could have it all, and do it all, and that we could have our children whenever we got around to it. Now most people know that that is not true.

I don't think it's normal for women to be that close with their college aged daughters that they discuss their periods in detail, but maybe I'm wrong. My daughter is younger and still at home, so I know what is going on.

I do agree with you that there are people who want adoptable white children and that is why they are anti-abortion. I do not agree with that for many reasons. I think inter-racial adoption is just fine. I also don't think women should be forced to carry a pregnancy so that other people can have a baby. That is not okay. But yes, I have shared before that I used to work with a woman who couldn't have her own children who was very anti abortion, and I felt as though there was a connection between those things.

Are you a woman who is talking about your own experiences here? Please let us know if you are, R42.

Girls, girls, we hate both of you!

R46 I am discussing the “type” Of voter Fetterman (and the Democratic Party) is trying to retain for this election. The one that will flip.

I know the swing areas of the state that he needs to win. I know the types that live in them. My sister and I grew up with them as kids. We are now of the age where many of them have already returned to their hometowns years ago to raise their families.

These are the types that voted for Biden in 2020 but won’t be giving Fetterman that same courtesy and I’ve explained just a few of the reasons why - (quirky ones like the goonies reference, and more dead serious ones like why abortion isn’t going to be a major issue for these types because of fertility concerns, and what’s being discovered at local school board meetings)

It’s that simple:

But you’re all living under a rock and don’t think any of the more serious issues - school board meetings/Fertility concerns would effect the upper middle class middle aged white woman in the suburbs - the vote Fetterman needs.

And yes - the Oprah thing is actually a big deal.

These ladies were obsessed with Oprah since early adulthood. If you don’t think that will make an impact you’re really clueless. They loved her - and she promoted Oz. They’re friends. That’s the only seal of approval they need.

It’s that simple.

I also discussed this with my husband this evening. Again, we live in NJ, but are generally the demographic you are discussing, except that we are strong lefties. I asked him if he were not into politics, which guy would he vote for? Husband agreed that Oz is shady as hell. He likes that Fetterman doesn't look like a typical politician, he looks a little more tough or blue collar. What I'm saying is that even if you are right about women (which I don't think you are), I think a lot of MEN in Pennsylvania will vote for Fetterman instead of Oz.

I don't think Abortion is going to be the hot button issue Dems want it to be, after all the young sluts who will benefit from it will be too busy getting dicked down on election day to care, Its also too early for most guys to care because right now their busy fucking, smoking, drinking.

It will be a big issue in a few cycles when we start hearing rampant reports of 8-12 year olds birthing the kids of their brothers, dads and priests. More reports of Karen's and Michele's dying because the doctors refuse to remove the dead fetus from inside them, and and increase of unwanted children in orphanages and welfare because we all know Republicans don't give a fuck about them after their birthdays.

Let this be over already.

Democrats were polling pretty well in the Senate races until recently but as the election approaches, momentum appears to be shifting towards the Republicans. The Dems still have the edge in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania & Arizona, but those leads are shrinking, plus Nevada is looking precarious.

The big question is the timing of the Election. If the election were held this week, the Dems could probably hold onto the Senate, but because the election is still over 2 weeks away, the question is whether those Dem leads can hold up. We are in for some nail biting moments as we get to November 8. 😰

My prediction, we will win PA, AZ and GA and lose Nevada, there by holding on to 50-50. Of the remaining battleground states I think Ryan will be very close to upsetting Vance in Ohio. Ron Johnson will easily beat Barnes. Not sure about the race in N.C.

[quote]I don't think Abortion is going to be the hot button issue Dems want it to be.

Correct. The average person doesn't GAF about it. People WHO VOTE (aka boomers) have already had their kids. And they want grandchildren, but their millennial kids, are not getting with the program. Hitting their 30's, not married, no kids....they have terminal arrested development. Boomers are scratching their heads wondering why their own adult kids aren't moving on with their lives.

So, no. No one will vote dem just so an extremely rare, outlier 10 year old can get an abortion.

I just looked at the closing polls in NJ's governor's race last year. Murphy had a pretty significant lead in most of the polls, but won more narrowly than any of them showed.

This year is starting to feel a little like that, unless Dems close better than Murphy and McAuliffe in VA.

Also, I know polls have a margin of error. But if pollsters wanted to acknowledge that, they'd describe the results in a range (e.g., "Judy could have a lead of 2-4 points or Tom could have a lead of 1-3 points").

But they mislead by providing a precise number. And so we are entitled to use the number they advertise - not the one they hide in tiny print on the label on the back.

Extrapolating from a situation like Murphy last year in NJ is foolish and ignorant. Don’t you realize that when one candidate has a big lead, especially in an off election year like 2021, many of that candidates supporters don’t vote because they feel safe and confident, of course resulting in lower actual win margins on Election Day. Happens all the time.

"Extrapolating from ...."

Ok. Shrug.

[quote]Democrats were polling pretty well in the Senate races until recently but as the election approaches, momentum appears to be shifting towards the Republicans.

Well, it seems like it's always this way: races tighten as the election gets closer since people start paying attention.

All things being equal, here's the one thing that makes me kind of hopeful: big mouth cow Marge Tractor Trailer keeps bragging about how she'll be in power if the repigs win the house. McCarthy makes John Boehner look like Winston Churchill so regardless of who is the majority leader, there is no doubt that the MAGA wing of the party will bring nothing but chaos. For some people, that's all they want is chaos & breakdown, but most people expect the government to continue to function at some basic level, even if they love bitching about mean old Nancy. So I'm hopeful they're taking a hard look at the anarchy these people will bring & hold their nose & vote for dems, even if they don't like the democrats

“ Well, it seems like it's always this way: races tighten as the election gets closer since people start paying attention.”

I think this is a product of corporate news. What grabs eyeballs months out? SHOCK polls.

What grabs eyeballs close to Election Day? TIGHT polls.

What do those eyeballs mean? Money.

Doesn’t it feel like the media is really heating the midterms? Why would voters in swing states suddenly swing towards crazy Republicans? Seems kind of manufactured.

R49 I think you’re too biased living in your leftist bubble TBH.

Even within your state - Look at what happened to Steve Sweeney last year.

My guess is this - and it’s just a guess. If Fetterman pulls this off it will be by a razor thin margin all while having the “biggest turnout” for a midterm in history.

But even pulling out all those sharpies won’t be as easy - People around here are watching A LOT more closely this time around and they will not tolerate the level of fuckery that happened in 2020.

Biden's overall improvement rating is up 10 points from July, per a CNBC poll.

But Republicans have a 2-point advantage, 48%-46%, on party preference to control Congress -- a toss-up, when you factor in margin of error.

Republicans have a double-digit lead on the questions of which party would do a better job bringing down inflation, handling taxes, dealing with deficits and creating jobs -- proving that many Americans continue to have their heads up their asses.

R49 thinks women will vote for Oz because of Oprah over their own reproductive rights and that of their sisters, daughters and granddaughters? Really?

I know western PA very well and think Fetterman will do very well there. He is clearly of the state and of the people.

^I think Fetterman will prevail; the more worrisome race is Tim Ryan/JD Vance in Ohio. Given that even Trump makes fun of Vance, I hope MAGA nation doesn't consider him "Trumpy" enough, but who knows. It's Ohio

R64 I think your dead wrong. I stand by everything I’ve stated.

The Dem’s machine in Pittsburgh will have to get down on their knees and pray that between them and the political thugs in Philly they can feverishly pump out enough ballots into the pool for Fetterman to have a standing chance

And let’s get real - the visual and verbal optics courtesy of his recent stroke will make it even more of a challenge.

Not all women are in favor of baby killing, R64.

JD Vance is dead in the water in OH.

AZ is the real concern.

In addition r64 -

Don’t you get it yet?

They can now vote for a Republican without the stigma of the “deplorable” label - all because of his association with Oprah.

I am R49 and I did NOT say that women in PA would vote for Dr. Oz. I said I didn't think that was true. The person arguing back and forth with me is the one saying that. I said that I am a woman and I don't like him, and that my husband, a man, also doesn't like him.

I only know Philadelphia area PA women. Lefties like myself. But are Amish people really going to vote for Dr. Oz? Are other Central Pennsylvania Republicans going to vote for Dr. Oz? I don't see why they would. He just seems like a very strange choice of candidate to me. I mean, there are probably some women who have crushes on their doctors, and they may vote for him. And there are really politically engaged Republicans who will vote for him, but I don't see his appeal to standard, white Pennsylvanians. Or to white or black Philadelphian Pennsylvanians. Oz comes off as greasy and condescending. Fetterman comes off as steady, strong, and nice.

You know what's gonna turn this around? Small Town melodramas about banning children's books from libraries.

Yeah, that's the ticket

Pennsylvania Senate:

Fetterman (D) 46% Oz (R) 46% Gerhardt (L) 2%

.@InsiderPolling/@FOX29philly, 550 LV, 10/19

This would be a Red Tsunami

Generic Ballot (National) Rep 50% Dem 44% 10/13-10/17 by Monmouth University (A) 756 RV

All of a sudden the GOP doesn't hate all Muslims? They're really hot for Dr. Oz....unbelievable hypocrites.

To be fair, Republicans welcome Muslims who advance their agenda

R70 the Philadelphia suburbs decide the election. The upper middle class middle-aged white woman who resides within these suburbs is the demo we are discussing - and they will decide this election.

Clearly you don’t have knowledge of this demo, or this area.

“Philadelphia” women are nothing like their counterparts living in the surrounding suburbs. Night and day..

“ there are probably some women who have crushes on their doctors, and they may vote for him”

Oh my sides! This has zero to do with doctor crushes.

One great hope for Dems is that gas prices are expected to continue falling again after the recent bump scared people once again. It seems like such a simple metric for people to decide their vote upon but as we know most people are simpletons. Gas prices are literally like thousands of huge billboards everywhere one looks. When prices shot up, polls showed Republicans gaining, and after they started falling, Dems chances improved considerably.

Interestingly, prices are expected to continue falling not because of Bidens recent announcement about releasing additional oil reserves, but mainly because of recession fears affecting potential demand, reopening of refineries— especially in the Western US, and seasonal post summer drop in demand and change to less expensive winter fuel as opposed to summer blends. These are all expected to put continued downward pressure on gas prices, which could fall below recent lows by Election Day. This could move the needle one or two points toward Dems, which is huge in such a tight race.

Democrats and progressives have overplayed their reliance on abortion as a motivating issue for voters. We tried to warn them

Okay, if it's not about women having crushes on their doctors, what could it be? Really? Who on earth would choose Oz over Fetterman? There is nothing appealing about him.

Please describe for me the kind of person who would vote for him. I know people have said Oprah fanatics, but really? I have a generally positive view of Oprah, but not of Dr. Oz at all. I don't see the correlation.

r80 doesn’t get that most Republicans will vote for anyone that advances their interests it has nothing to do with who the actual person (see Herschel Walker, Marjorie Taylor Greene , Donald Trump, etc.)

Seems like a foolish and extremely naive perspective at this point not to realize this and ask “what kind of person will vote for them”

R80 What kind of person who is on the fence (that is the definition of a swing state) is going to vote for Fetterman? The man just had a stroke and is barely coherent. People have seen enough of Bidens “gaffes” over the last year to not want to venture down that road again.

He opposes tough on crime policies (crime is something voters are concerned about) he has zero to bring to the table on key issues - except for the fact he has a D next to his name, those claiming abortion is going to matter clearly are in the dark about what the climate is in the state, and country.

Fetterman is desperate - and now decided to open up the “fracking” can of worms.. I guess he will try to use his stroke as an excuse for memory loss as well.

How's it looking? Who's going to win the House and Senate?

R78 - gas prices will go down temporarily, due to the release at the reserves. - but then after that, increase. Please do some reading on Petro and it’s relationship to the dollar and the global economy. The US dollar is strong right now and it needs to stay that way - hence higher gas prices. Honesty once the value of the US dollar falls all hell will break loose. People don’t seem to understand this basic concept - instead they will blame corporate greed or the Ukraine but in reality we are in the midst of a currency war.

R78: "One great hope for Dems is that gas prices are expected to continue falling again"

That is not the case in Philly and burbs. It's over $4 for the first time since the summer (at least at the gas stations I see).

R76: "the Philadelphia suburbs decide the election"

No, they don't - at least not more so than any other part of the Commonwealth. The key change in PA politics is not the Philly burbs. Instead, it's formerly deep blue parts of the Commonwealth (Scranton) voting purple or red.

i would be thrilled if the Senate remained 50/50. i'm increasingly worried that we can't hold on to that result

It’s been that way for months. I have to get premium for my car anyway so I pay more - but one thing I noticed was the larger discrepancy between 87 and 93. It use to be only 30 cents but now it’s a much greater difference.

It’s all the ethanol that’s been added to the 87 gas. They did this to make it “cheaper” but in reality it’s filled more more crap. I guess the reasoning is this - people who get premium are use to spending more on gas anyway, and are more likely to drive a more expensive vehicle (thus higher income bracket) that requires it - so why lower their prices. They won’t. But they will add ethanol to 87 to keep the masses happy despite them being unaware that the actual gas they are filling their tank with will be more detrimental to their engine in the long run. Since the goal is for them to get an electric vehicle anyway - it doesn’t matter in the scheme of things.

New PA poll with the Senate race tied

Oh and of course I come with receipts -

This was taken in Doylestown a couple weeks ago.

Yes they do r86.

How so, r91?

R92 they always do.

Scranton was only considered important in 2020 because Biden was from there - that’s it. The only reason it had any relevance and it was short lived.

No, they don't, R92. People used to say that, because the 'burbs were purple. They are now all blue.

So if an election goes red in PA, it's because of some part of the state outside of Philly and its burbs.

Also, Tim Russert is dead. The notion of "as go the Philly burbs, so goes Pennsylvania" is just as dead.

I’m sure Fettermans recent flip flop on this will also now effect his support in westen pa

R94 they really aren’t blue. Have you even looked at last years local Elections here?

Where is "here" for you, r96?

R94 - do these 2021 results look like a blue ‘burb to you?

It was a red sweep.

Bucks r97

I don’t give a crap about the Fetterman/Oz race. I hate both of them. My concern is Shapiro /Mastriano…it would be pretty grim if Mastriano won.

It's strange how debates have played a role in the GOP upswing. Walker was better than what people assumed, so he got a little momentum going. The big surprise was Blake Masters dominant performance over a very lackluster Mark Kelly.

I cannot believe that Walker was better than anything.

R78, if you’re interested in knowing why gas prices will rise after the election listen to this interview with Amrita Sen (oil analyst) conducted yesterday.

It starts at the 31 minute mark.

It will help you understand a bit more of the situation.

The upcoming dip in gas prices is due to the release of the reserves which is timed to coincide with the midterms.

It is temporary.

Maintaining the strength of the US dollar takes priority over the costs at the pump.

Is 538 credible anymore?

Only to simpletons

19 days left!

'THERE MUST be better messaging by the Democrats going into this election. The question is NOT "what have you done for me lately"? It MUST be what are Republicans going to do next to destroy OUR Democracy? (Paraphrased) MICHAEL Steele, former Maryland Lt Governor, The Beat, MSNBC

Democrats should be blowing Republicans out of the water now but they aren't because they suck at messaging & making abortion the top issue in this election isn't something most voters agree with

“Americans who want a GOP-led Congress (64% extremely motivated) continue to be more motivated than those who want to keep Democrats in charge (59%).”

Absolutely crazy Dem voters don’t get what’s at stake! A total media and Dem Party messaging failure.

[quote] The man just had a stroke and is barely coherent.

The guy looked (and acted like) Lurch today with Biden. Just stood there like a zombie and didn’t say a word. A reporter asked him a question and his wife/minder jumped in to say “No comment.”

He’s GONE.

R110 - I guess he was told to ditch the hoodie and shorts

He has to be very careful which is why they told him not to speak... sounds very familiar to some Biden moments we’ve had to witness...

r111 he looks so dazed and unhealthy

He hides that giant hump on the back of his neck with those hoodies he always wears but the suit today made it obvious. What is the deal with that, anyway? He’s so shady and evasive with these health issues he has.

What IS that thing?

R113 He just stood there like that the entire time with Biden on the tarmac. Expression never changed and he didn’t say a word, even when he was asked a direct question. His ever-present wife was stuck to his side like glue. The whole thing was creepy.

The implosion of a candidate

Isn’t that a goiter? Don’t elderly people sometimes get them? Or maybe a tumor of some sort?

It’s very off putting to look at..

It also adds to his “Sloth” vibes..

R115 if you look at Biden shaking his hand it’s like “Puppet, meet Puppet” as Wolf smiles along side of them.

He looks like the pinhead guy from the horror movie Freaks.

Lol r119 - he kinda does!

Divided government is best. That way neither side can do too much that's extreme. Well, apart from war, which both sides like now.

Politico has the house as likely Republican right now:

They have the Senate as a toss up. Everything is riding on Wisconsin, Georgia, and Pennsylvania:

R81 is quite correct.

Deliberately naive and “oh so shocked!” rhetorical questions about this are tired, tedious, and don’t advance the discussion.

I assume it’s mainly shrieking women engaging in such time wasting dramatics.

R70, how can you be so dumb?

I mean, really. Look at yourself.

The person posting all these Fetterman bashing posts is another troll trying to sound like a concerned member of DL to trick people, when they are just a shill and not a real datalounger . The trolls are getting more stealth by not going as hard so as not to rebels themselves, but we’ve got their number!

*reveal themselves

It's the insane British woman, who I think lives in PA.

Yes, yes, that must be it, R126.

I feel bad for Fetterman. His brain is obviously processing information fine, even if he has to intake information in a different way for now. And I'm cool with reasonable accommodations being made for him, just like I'm ok with accommodations being made for the Texas politician in the wheelchair.

I know those pictures above might be cherry-picked. But if he really is standing apart from everything and not speaking at his own events while he campaigns on this level - it must be massively frustrating.

I still think he's going to win.

I think Reps will win Penn and Wisconsin with the big issue being crime.

Maine's Dem governor is killing it!

Well, that's because he learned his lesson. It really does work to shake them up from time to time.

Georgia voters continued to hit record breaking turnout on day three of Early Voting. As of Thursday morning, just under 400,000 Georgia voters have cast their ballot during in-person Early Voting.

Wednesday’s total marks a 63.3% increase from day three of 2018 midterm Early Voting and is only slightly under the total of day three of Early Voting in the 2020 Presidential election.

I’m taking a break from TYT. Cenk and Ana are ultra shrill these days, and their doomsday predictions for the Democratic Party are getting on my nerves. There has to be some hope. And I say that as a cynical, bitter eldergay.

[quote]Divided government is best.

GTFOOH. "Both sides" nonsense doesn't fly in 2022, not when one side is a bunch of Nazis.

That's way too close. Pennsylvania is filled with morons.

r12 has quite an imagination. Anyway, PA is filled with lots of blue collar people. Most of them wish they had the kind of comfortable wealth that r12 is talking about.

Why on earth would you think I’m a British woman r128?

Yes I’m from Pa - you got that right.

r12 is a known DL troll who is previously blocked by myself and many others

I’m not a troll - I just have a different opinion and perspective than you, r140.

I must have a couple of you blocked though because I don’t see your posts - which is a good thing. A couple of you are quite unhinged and nasty - stalkerish frankly - I dont want to deal with the mentally ill.

"I dont want to deal with the mentally ill."

Asshole. Stay out of my city.

How's it looking overall for the Senate and House?

Senate: heavily favored to Dems

House: heavily favored to Reps

I am the troll that makes you think I'm a troll because I disagree with you.

^who makes you, I should have said.

R144 means:

Senate: "slightly favored" for Dems

House: "favored" for GOP

[quote] I think Reps will win Penn

You don’t think Shapiro will win?

R142 exactly. This is the kind of thing I’m trying to avoid, which is why I must have previously blocked those unhinged posters.

I’ve a feeling this dude is one of them.

I can't see without logging in, and I'm not on insta.

Is he cute?

It depends on who you ask... r150. We all have our own opinions.

R148 Shapiro will have an easier time than Fetterman but don’t discount Mastrino just yet. It’s not impossible. I don’t think it will be as easy of a win Shapiro’s has convinced himself of.

Btw r148 - notice how Shapiro was nowhere to be seen when Biden came here yesterday..

He probably told Joe he had a “scheduling conflict”

He doesn’t want Joe anywhere near him on the campaign.

Looks CLOSE in Minnesota - all tied up!

I thought Trafalgar was a know GOP polling firm. But 538 gives it an A-.

Yes r153 Trafalgar was the most accurate in 2016, and has been since but it was deemed right wing trash if you posted the polls from there.

DL is still bitter about it. The ones that posted Trafalgar polls, while also ringing the alarm that the race was very tight in 2016 - were vindicated on election night.

I was one of them.

Most that posted Trafalgar were blocked and called Boris.. hence the blocking comments upthread.

The screeching girls of DL are very sensitive to Trafalgar - tread lightly.... I’m warning you NOW so I don’t have to warn you THEN.

Trafalgar wasn't accurate in 2016. They were merely the only polling outfit to keep claiming, post-Pussy Tape, that Trump would win. He won, but not by the margins they were predicting.

They were about as "accurate" as Chicken Little right before she got crushed by a falling jet engine. Their model oversampled GOP voters, and it still does. Their 2016 hit was sheer good luck on their part. Not good polling.

R153

R155 = exhibit A in what I discussed above at 154.

Still bitter and in denial. It’s been 6 years, dear. Get over it.

Trafalgar was within the MOE, r155. There were polls by A rated pollsters that had Clinton up big in some swing states in 2016 and Biden up by double digits in 2020…now those polls were way, way off.

Nevada senate race.

I love DL during elections for that useless contingent that screams Boris at everything they can't bear and rejects everything that might benefit from a little compromise. Their posts are so entertaining, as they throw tantrums in support of a world that won't come.

YOU ARE FUCKING BORIS AND I'M REPORTING YOUR IP ADDRESS TO MURIEL!

F&F AND BLOCKED!!!!!

r160, this is r159 in the *Angela Lansbury is DEAD to me* thread:

[quote]You know all those people who dropped by the Queen threads to share that they didn't care?

[quote]Today I understand them. Nice lady, I gather, but I never got the fuss. Couldn't really sing, she was no Streep in the acting department. I always felt she was sort of Florence Henderson hits the big time.

Comparing her to Streep and completely ignoring Manchurian Candidate.

Rasmussen (a GOP pollster) shows the GOP's "generic ballot" lead nearly cut in half, led by men.

I guess more men are coming home (coming homo????) to the Dems!

Straight men are pro-abortion over 18 years of child support, etc.

R149 that’s fucking hilarious.

Not too stalky, R161.

a betting market on the Senate odds.....

[quote]Not too stalky

Yes, r165, I didn't want to resort to stalky-stalky.

There are a lot more Republicans here than I thought (or is it just a handful of really aggressive Republicans?).

Listen, I'm just saying that in my family group, Oz is considered oily and creepy. Fetterman is not. I could tell my mom kind of "likes" Fetterman. I'm sorry that that bothers you. We live in NJ so it really doesn't matter. Don't get so upset. You Republicans can say what you feel about Fetterman, and I can say what I feel and what those around me feel. That's the way this works.

[quote]There are a lot more Republicans here than I thought

No, r168, there really aren't.

R168 The people sounding off about Fetterman don't appear to be Republicans.

R168

1. You live in NJ 2. Steve Sweeney (enough said)

Who cares that your “family group” (?!?) likes Fetterman? And that your mom finds him attractive? (I find that very hard to believe but then again there’s a lid for every pot)

Shapiro is now going to have more of a challenge

I’m sure he’s going to try and dodge the question whether to mandate kids in school get the covid vaccine but he won’t be able to dodge the question for long.

Even parents that happily got vaccinated are now not so sure about these vaccines. Especially for kids. Only 5 percent of adults have gotten their updated boosters. The actual vaccine being administered is still EUA.

This may be the added edge Mastrino needs

I haven’t been quiet about my dislike for both Fetterman and Oz…and, no, I’m not a Republican.

Fetterman is clearly not healthy enough to serve. This is a simple fact. He may recover but not by Election Day.

Those are your choices, r173. Pick *one*.

Thank you for sharing, r174.

[quote] Straight men are pro-abortion over 18 years of child support, etc.

The demographic that supports abortion rights more than any other is, in fact, young men. Not hard to understand.

Don’t forget about trans women..r177.

Yes, the notion that there is some gender gap on the issue of abortion has never been borne out by polls.

If the Dems lose Pennsylvania, you can thank that idiot DA in Philadelphia.

“ Those are your choices, [R173]. Pick *one*.”

There’s more than just 2 choices.

Actually, r175, they’re not MY choices. I don’t get to participate in the PA primaries as an independent so my only chance to vote for MY candidate is in the general election. I voted by mail and I went the write-in route for senate and Shapiro for governor. The Governor race is the only one I’m interested in.

^governor’s

Write in for Senate?

Write in for Senate!

WRITE IN FOR SENATE!

BLOCKT AND YOUR IP REPORTED TO MURIEL, BORIS!

I’m very curious to see the breakdown of results of AOC vs Forte.

Thanks, r172. When our marriages are dissolved, and Republican judges lick.their chops. your moral compass will offer unending comfort.

Swing voters don't swing because they're all that persuadable, per se, but because they're contrarians who don't know what they're doing and don't understand or seem to care how anything really works.

I don't get why all of a sudden crime has become a big issue in Senate races, Senators have very little to do with the amount of crime, they don't arrest, try or convict people.

Lol, r187. No. We’re not partisan hacks.

In the religion that is politics, swing voters are atheists.

[quote] If the Dems lose Pennsylvania, you can thank that idiot DA in Philadelphia.

Philadelphia is not Pennsylvania.

[quote] There’s more than just 2 choices.

Oh, dear.

Yeah, annoying

Before you get offended, Obama apparently made up the "Cousin Pookie" nickname.

New York getting tighter than my ass!

[quote] There are a lot more Republicans here than I thought (or is it just a handful of really aggressive Republicans?).

Republican: anyone who criticizes Democratic politicians, or expressed a single opinion contrary to the party line.

It’s looking like the Red Wave we feared is in progress with the bottom falling out for Democrats even in blue states and districts

Ok... time to revise my comment at r151.

With the CDC updating its immunization schedule... I think we may be approaching toss-up status with Mastrino vs Shapiro.

Depending on how Mastrino treats this we should start to see him rising in the polls - and the Philly cartel making more trips to kinkos.

Democrats often forget that, in addition to Republicans, 20 percent of the country has no ability to resist voting for crazy, nasty candidates who do terrible things. Then, when independents” vote for people who start wars on false premises, attack minority populations to rile up anger, or give away money to rich people? Democrats are surprised and angry.

We need to remember that a lot of Americans are just shits. Democrats will not win if they try to convert shitty people. They need to speak to their level.

538 has a poll showing Murray up by 3 in Washington state. The pollster is graded C

I lived in WA for 20 years, feeling she was a grandstander who should have retired. The homeless anarchy in Seattle, beloved of Wokes, is a huge turnoff to moderate WA voters.

538 now has the control-of-Senate odds at 55% for Dems to 45% for Reps.

The price I fear we will all pay. I am sad about this. I hope I'm wrong and there's some unexpected, undeserved miracle coming.

[quote]and there's some unexpected, undeserved miracle coming

What's funny is that if swing voters give the House & Senate to Republicans because they're concerned about inflation they will pretty much be digging their own graves - a Republican congress isn't going to ANYTHING they think will help Joe Biden. If you're concerned about inflation and the economy, you'd better vote for Democrats, as they're your only hope.

Republicans don't even have any policy positions, ffs. They don't even acknowledge that inflation is global. What are they going to do about it?

AOC went full Speedy Gonzales at that town hall when she started getting heckled.

[quote]Thanks, [R172]. When our marriages are dissolved, and Republican judges lick.their chops. your moral compass will offer unending comfort.

I’m assuming this is directed at me, r182 and not r172.

Well, you have yourself to blame. Next time….in a closed primary state where Independents make up 1/3 of the electorate (and is the fast growing group)…think about the candidate’s broader appeal and overall electability beyond your party instead of bullying the group you need to win into voting for someone they don’t like. Same goes for republicans which is why I went the write in route for Senate. And, BTW…I wrote in a Democrat.

R207 - 100% agreed

Also, if your candidate has a stroke, REPLACE HIM!

538’s daily shrinking number on the Senate is reminding me of it’s shrinking Hillary numbers on Election Night ‘16.

[quote]And, BTW…I wrote in a Democrat.

And how's that working out for you, r207?

What kind of nincompoop finds 538 credible in 2022?

[Quote]Murray leads Smiley among voters in the Seattle Metro area by 19 points and by eight points elsewhere in western Washington. Smiley leads by 14 points in eastern Washington.

That's as bad as Oregon.

Beto is hemorrhaging hispanic voters. Now tied with Abbot, 11 points behind in the total vote.

Guess they don't give a fuck about Uvalde.

I have to wonder how many more times the DNC is going to run Beto for office. Clearly he ticks a lot of boxes for the Party apparatus, but sadly he is never going to win statewide office in red Texas. Time to cultivate some alternatives, if there are any.

[quote]And how's that working out for you, [R207]?

It appears to be working out better for me than for you.

Beto is a great example of running the wrong candidate. He’d be great for California or NY…but Texas? The second he said we’re coming for your guns (he’s since walked it back) was the moment he lost Texas forever and what do democrats do…elect him in a primary.

R215 They'd have to come from a working class background in order to be competitive, but Democrats have burned that bridge. I can't think of anyone. Beto sucks the air out of everything. The state party uses him to bring in donations from other parts of the country.

I don’t know about polls, but my regular voting location, where I used to vote in person early but now use as a drop-off location, has it set up where you have to drop off the ballot in the drop box, and then walk through the building to the exit. There was a visible increase in the number of machines as well as the place was freaking packed.

Las Vegas. Anecdotal evidence.

I thought paper absentee ballots were for housebound people and people who were traveling on election day. If you can make it to a drop-off location why not just vote normally?

Because it takes seconds to vote by mail vs about an hour or sometimes much longer when voting in person.

R220 Fair enough.

r219, it is a hassle when you have to accompany a 92 yo Democrat.

Plus, if you do not trust the voting machines but have faith in Scantron tabulators, or do not trust the USPS because of DeJoy.

I like taking the time to fill in the ballot slowly and precisely.

Plus, like r220 said, no lines.

Plus, Nevada is now a 100% mailed Vote By Mail or Vote In Person.

R219 ignore above the responses

What they meant to write is:

“Because it’s much easier for us to cheat this way”

[quote] Guess they don't give a fuck about Uvalde.

Guess Beto's cheap grandstand stunt trying to exploit the Uvalde. dead children didn't go over well

People don’t like Uvalde.

They don’t like fentanyl deaths.

They don’t like totally restricted abortion.

They don’t like totally unrestricted abortion.

There’s not a party for those people.

Bless your heart, r225.

Sometimes, Dems lose narrowly. This knee-jerk "cheating" shit needs to end.

R228 Your lips to God's ears.

r224, VBM creates a paper record that is easy to audit.

The voter is verified before the vote is tabulated.

In Nevada, only 12 instances of voter fraud were discovered. They were all Republicans.

No, Virginia, it is not easy to cheat that way.

Enough of your bullshit, r230

We Are NOT THAT STUPID

Why are there so many republican polls? Cygnal, Trafalgar, Lucid, Echelon, Insider Advantage? What is going on?

But you ARE THAT STUPId, r231. 15 baseless cases in Delaware County, 0 cases of fraud. Nice article from last fucking year.

[quote]We Are NOT THAT STUPID

r233 beat me to it.

r231, go buy a gun.

I can't believe anyone would think Nevada is corrupt.

Can you prove that in court? Yeah, didn't think so pal.

R233 you can’t “audit” anything when what there is to audit has been destroyed.

None of this is baseless. It was destroyed this cannot be subjected to an audit

Stop with your bullshit

And in case you didn’t know

The City of Chester in Delco (where this took place) happens to be looking into filing for bankruptcy and seeking reprieve and an agreement with the state - if you don’t think that’s all related I’ve got a bridge to sell you.

^ Tinfoil

Harsh reality the Polyannas can't deal with.

Paper ballots and electronic votes are kept by law through the time period that there is to contest the election. Once it is certified, no Trumper can change the counts.

The law is 22 months r239 which is why they openly discuss that they are committing a felony at the video posted up thread

Boundaries STATED

A Facebook search for the words “election fraud” first delivers an article claiming that workers at a Pennsylvania children’s museum are brainwashing children so they’ll accept stolen elections.

Facebook’s second suggestion? A link to an article from a site called MAGA Underground that says Democrats are plotting to rig next month’s midterms. “You should still be mad as hell about the fraud that happened in 2020,” the article insists.

With less than three weeks before the polls close, misinformation about voting and elections abounds on social media despite promises by tech companies to address a problem blamed for increasing polarization and distrust.

r242 - Did your 401K forget to send you the memo?

No one uses Facebook anyone.

I am so stupid that I didn't even know you could look up articles on Facebook.

A dreadful poll has Oz up by 4 points. It's by some outfit called Wick, and I can't believe it's accurate.

While polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight does note Wick has a provisional rating due to a "relatively small number of polls" it noted the pollster has correctly called 71 percent of the races it has analyzed.

Fetterman branded Oz "sick" after a report emerged that said he had supervised experiments where 300 dogs and other animals died. Oz has denied being involved in the dogs' deaths.

Political experts have since described the race as "juvenile" and a clear example of the "erosion of norms" in U.S. politics.

Gift recently told Newsweek: "You'd be hard pressed to find any midterm race in the country that's more juvenile than Pennsylvania's contest between John Fetterman and Dr. Oz—and that's saying something."

I'm surprised that Wick is in 538.

I can't wait for the Repugs to pass a federal anti-abortion bill. The wokessters' heads will explode.

I thought the Supreme Court decision specified that abortion is strictly a state matter, so feds have no (direct) say like that.

It can be regulated as economic activity under the commerce clause

[quote]I thought the Supreme Court decision specified that abortion is strictly a state matter, so feds have no (direct) say like that.

Tell that to Lady G.

r248 There are less and less wokesters by the day. Only the die hards are left in that basket..

They're realizing "Get broke go Woke" isn't just a meme.

How's it looking?

I just want divided government. Put the breaks on the crazy spending for now.

That crazy spending by Biden is rewiring the economy and evening the field for women while smoothing the way to a sustainable energy and a cooler earth.

Biden is like an American Dumbledore. He sees it all at once.

R255 , you really are living in your own world, aren't you?

Team r255

R255, he's printing so much money that stuff is getting less affordable. How about he prioritizes what to spend on, instead of throwing money at absolutely everything? Divided government will mean reining in the wild spending, as well as greater oversight. I'd want the same for a Republican president.

You're aware how transparent you're being, right, r258?

Oh R258 you're not being fair. Stuff is only becoming less affordable to the 99 percent.

Stop making this all about you - think of the other 1 percent for once. Don't be selfish - its for the greater good.

*brakes

r258 and yet the dollar is stronger than it has been in decades. If we get divided government, it will mean Republican government shutdowns.

There is record making early voting. Experts state that this benefits the dems now.

The kiss of death for dems has always been low voter turn- out in the mid- terms.

We have to turn out in droves and vote blue down ballot.

VOTE for the Democratic candidate.

R262 - don't worry about government shutdowns - Citibank has that covered.

Michigan - Governor Polling:

Whitmer (D): 48% Dixon (R): 48% Buzuma (L): 2%

Trafalgar / Oct 21, 2022 / n=1079 / MOE 2.9% / IVR

(Republican Pollster)

Generic Ballot Polling:

GOP: 48% DEM: 47%

Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies / Oct 18, 2022 / n=797 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone

RCP has a poll with Vance and Ryan tied

Ryan was ahead until about two weeks ago

[quote] RCP has a poll with Vance and Ryan tied

Vance chance of winning is 76

Ryan chance of winning 24

That new Ohio poll looks great, the same poll (by highly rated Marist) that now shows them tied showed Vance up by 1 last time around, in September The fact that Dems are so competitive at all in Ohio of all places is a good sign, and belies the narrative that Reps are gaining ground.

Chris Murphy is testament that Democrats in the Midwest and South need to distance themselves from the perception that Democrats are elites

R265, as I posted elsewhere, if my governor, Gretchen Whitmer, for whom I’ve already voted, is safe, it’s hard to imagine ANY democrat in a contested state anywhere being safe. And no need to think about keeping the Senate.

^Huh? If a Dem governor is safe, then Dems everywhere else are NOT safe?^

^ I obviously meant "not" safe. As in tied with Dixon.

Garland will be having a press conference today to address a foreign actor's malign influence on the election (Russia, probably). Expect a big bump for Dems this week!

ok

A statement from Garland will reduce inflation by 50% or so ? Good luck with that.

Garland coming out with such claims right now, mere weeks before the midterms, would backfire and be viewed as an attempt to influence the election.

Garland's announcement is a Hail Mary, but I don't think it's necessary: I truly think Dems will hold the Senate at the very least. Biden is probably needlessly worried about it.

Even if hausfraus won’t vote for Sloth, surely the white male gamer/gun nut contingent will. He’s in a hoodie for fuck’s sake!

This fertility troll is the weakest troll.

Garlands statement will backfire - people are sick of being gaslit

R281 - I am just stating facts, and data to back it up.

More women care about fertility and are concerned - and all the trans women screaming about having their "right to choose" will not be enough to counter that.

[quote]The fact that Dems are so competitive at all in Ohio of all places is a good sign, and belies the narrative that Reps are gaining ground.

But are they? If you look at the 2020 polls for Ohio…the only pollsters who came remotely close at the end were the traditionally Republican polls like Rasmussen and Trafalgar. Others like Emerson and Quinnipiac had Biden ahead…Trump took Ohio by 8.2.

CNN Polls just out have more good news for Dems. Best of all, Fetterman leads Oz by 6 in Pa, and Johnson and Barnes are virtually tied in WI (Johnson up by 1). And Whitmer still has a 6 point lead in MI.

[quote]Gift recently told Newsweek: "You'd be hard pressed to find any midterm race in the country that's more juvenile than Pennsylvania's contest between John Fetterman and Dr. Oz—and that's saying something."

OMG YES! I said on here weeks ago that Fetterman’s meme driven campaign at the outset turned me off completely. I don’t give a shit about Snookie, crudités or one wealthy guy commenting on the wealth of another. I feel bad about medical research dogs…but I also know that medical research and animals is an ugly, ugly necessary evil.

Fetterman ran a stupid campaign that, unfortunately for him, left him looking like an empty hoodie when his disabilities became clear.

R285, and Biden is leading Trump by 17 points in Wisconsin.

NO ONE believes that.

CNN had some major polling issues in 2020. Example…they had Biden up by 10 (with a MOE of 4) in Pennsylvania.

There’s a contrarian Republican troll who consistently posts handpicked “data” to undermine any positive polling news for Democrats. Continue to ignore them.

Actually, I’m an independent and it’s injecting reality. If you don’t think CNN had issues with 2020 polling…prove me wrong instead of whining about the reality that polls since 2016 that swing wildly toward democrats have been pretty far off the mark.

Sorry, I stand corrected. An “independent” troll.

Stop whining, r291.

And…lol on WW your posts too, r291.

I gave r291 a W/W, r293...

That’s nice, r294…but not when I posted what did….so there.

Well, you can't trust Vanderbilt because Anderson Cooper is a Vanderbilt and he works for CNN!

[quote]but not when I posted what did….so there.

Say...what, r295?

🥱🙄, r297.

[quote]Actually, I’m an independent and it’s injecting reality.

Which Republicans have you voted for, r290?

Pataki when I was in NY. None since, r299.

The CNN polls don't seem to be showing up on 538. I'm guessing it's because 538 lists polls in order based on when they were completed, and the CNN polls were completed 6 and 7 days ago.

Oh, wait…and I guess Bloomberg, r299, but I’m not sure if he counts as a real Republican since he switched to Republican from a Democrat because the Democrats had a clown car the year he first ran.

Troll got so unhinged when proven wrong about accusing fake WWs that it went back and did exactly that for itself, pathetic

I love fucking with people like r303.

The polls are there for me, r301…and 538 has them rated a “C” with 60% accuracy 😳…I wonder why…it couldn’t be that they’re wildly off, could it?

Yes, I do see them, but it takes a bit of scrolling to get there, r305.

CNN needs to get these polls released more quickly if they want to get them on the front page of 538.

Regardless of the cherrypicked version of reality some here are selling, the inclusion of the new CNN polls today caused an increase in Dem percentage odds to win the Senate on fivethirtyeight, up to 56 from 55 earlier today.

Whats really odd about this specific thread is it seems to be the most difficult one to respond to if you don't share the narrative.

It constantly crashes and you have to keep refreshing the page to attempt to respond - like possible ddos issues.

Other threads on this site seem to be functioning just fine.

This thread is corrupt - just like some of the BS posts on it thinking the Dems are 20 points ahead!

R62 Its funny seeing idiots believing and repeating the dumb lies of Donald Trump. One funny fuckery of 2020 I do remember was Republicans chanting to stop counting votes in areas they were currently winning and to count stop counting votes in areas they were losing, Republicans are just a bunch of bratty children that never a got that beatdown they richly deserve.

Are there any nude photos of Merrick Garland?

Tasteful ones, r310.

Slow your roll, Senatrice, R310.

Merrick isn't into damsels.

Their debate is Tuesday the 25th at 8pm eastern.

Is the FETTERMAN debate going to be a shitshow???

I'm finding no reports on debate performances. Searching mainstream and right wing media. Anyone have a source?

For what, r315?

Does anyone have a url from a newsource that reports on the actual debate last night between Fedderman and Oz? I did a search and came up empty.^

That’s because the debate is tonight.

r317, if you searched for a news source on the Fettterman/Oz debate, you'd surely have seen that the debate was tonight.

[quote] the inclusion of the new CNN polls today caused an increase in Dem percentage odds to win the Senate on fivethirtyeight, up to 56 from 55 earlier today.

Down from 71 last month

Gurl, I hope there’s a DL live thread!

I’m trucking in the popcorn now!

Lol, sorry. But that's sorta what Joe Biden might say this morning.

538 has senate at 55-45

^ Post-Pennsylvania debate, it’ll be interesting to see where that line is now.

I wonder the extent to which debates really change anyone's mind. Most people are firmly decided & if their candidate shit their pants on stage, they'd just say "oh well" and vote for him/her anyway. As far as the independents, I say this just from my anecdotal knowledge of these strange creatures and they seem to make decisions based on very random issues or concerns ("I'm still pissed over that mask mandate two years ago!"). Let's face it, if people voted for the person who articulated the best/clearest ideas in a spirited discussion, we wouldn't have the collection of losers & nutjobs that we do. For example, by all accounts, Val Demings wiped the floor with that whiney bitch Marco, but will it be enough to overcome tribal loyalties? Not so sure.

Check out PredictIt.

I hate Oz because of the animal abuse stuff, but this doesn't look good.

Yeah, the people who provided the closed captioning have already made a statement saying their equipment didn’t malfunction and preformed as expected. Apparently both candidates were given the opportunity to two practice runs with the system and Fetterman opted to only do one run through.

New CBS poll has Shapiro leading by 9, and Fetterman leading by 2

This is the most accurate poll.

Because of the polarization in the parties, debates and ultimately the individual candidate positions are irrelevant. Are you pro Democracy or pro fascism? Do you want big businesses to make outrageous profits or do you want to put the breaks on inflation and the pharmaceutical and gas companies. Do you want to retain bodily autonomy and the civil rights that were fought for the past 40 years or do you want to be subject to Christian beliefs.

It depends.

There's still 13 days. Plenty can change. I still think Dems will retain the Senate, though, and I bet the House is actually going to be pretty close.

It's been mentioned on Twitter and elsewhere:

This cycle, there's a shitload of Republican-funded polls hitting the media averages. It might look like Pennsylvania has been polled 50 times this month, but if 2/3rds of those polls are Republican push-polls, you can't really trust them. Even still, the media love to run "polling averages" of all polls, so this throws off the actual numbers. It has the result of inflating the popularity of Republican candidates in the news headlines, giving Republicans free media on how their candidates are "doing so well this year."

[quote]New CBS poll has Shapiro leading by 9, and Fetterman leading by 2

Fetterman should thank god everyday that Shapiro is on the ballot and that Mastriano is insane. It’s going to be the Governor’s race that’s going to give Fetterman the boost, and it might even be enough for him to eke out a win.

[quote]This cycle, there's a shitload of Republican-funded polls hitting the media averages. It might look like Pennsylvania has been polled 50 times this month, but if 2/3rds of those polls are Republican push-polls, you can't really trust them.

538 breaks out who is sponsoring the poll and if the poll is funded by a party. There aren’t that many Republican sponsored polls for the PA senate race and the two credible republican sponsored polls show Fetterman in the lead…so do with that as you will.

On a purely human level, it’s hard not to feel bad for Fetterman. That was pretty brutal to watch.

Val Demings' big chance is if she can motivate black voters here more than Clinton and Biden/Harris could.

538 has the senate at 54-46 now

I am so curious how the midterms turn out. I really don't care either way; I just want to relish DLers' reactions to the results.

New Monmouth poll has Warnock up 5 over Walker

[quote] 538 has the senate at 54-46 now

That number keeps falling.

a *NEW* woman comes forward alleging Georgia GOP Senate candidate Herschel Walker drove her to a clinic "to have an abortion after she became pregnant as a result of her relationship w/ him." She'll speak later today at a presser, per release from attorney Gloria Allred.

Guardian analysis just now.

Guardian analysis just now.

R336 Dr Oz's "abortion should be between women, their doctors and their local political leaders" was worse than anything Fetterman said.

It didn’t bother me. Healthcare is going to be regulated so whatever.

Who even votes on these approval ratings? I've never gotten anything asking to give my approval for anyone. I certainly don't scout out websites looking for polls to fill out either. Who does this?

R231, Believe me or not:

I just called the Delaware County DA's office of Jack Stollsteimer (610-891-4161). They could not offer any information as to the actual outcome of that lawsuit/investigation.

They transferred me to the Criminal Investigation Division. That spokeswoman said not only was she unable legally to provide me with that outcome; she was precluded from saying even if the investigation was still on-going or completed.

IOW, you seem to be purveying unproven allegations as fact.

R231, I actually found THE REST OF THE STORY.

YOUR REPUBLICANS MADE IT ALL UP. CASE CLOSED.

R342 Oh, shit. Gloria Allred!

Where does she find these broads? And does she bring her own microphone cluster to the press conferences she stages? This loopy bitch is to shrill feminist Court TV as Kim Kardashian is to sex tapes: The QUEEN!

And the ultimate benchmark for Senator Warnock is to clear 50% on Election Day. Otherwise, it goes to a bullshit runoff election a month later, and Democrats typically fall off in runoff elections.

Warnock WON a runoff two years ago, but without Trump's antics in the news, can we count on a repeat? Best not to take the chance, and push for an outright win in November.

A Dem poll has AZ senate tied

But fox has Kelly up

[quote]A Dem poll has AZ senate tied

And a Republican pollster (Trafalgar) has Kelly up.

[quote] Delaware County District Attorney Jack Stollsteimer closes case on election fraud claims

The million dollar investment buying Stollsteimer paid off.

If you believe public polls, they suggest a serious shift back towards Dems in the generic ballot over the last week. I'm going to wait to see how real that movement actually is (I am skeptical that it's this big), but some underlying signals (gas + trends) are good for Dems.

And 538 has control of the Senate odds back to 54:46 for Dems:Reps.

It was that way this morning then Dems bounced up a point and now back a point.

It's absolutely hilarious there are still people out there who care about the discredited 538 odds! 🤣🤣🤣

🤣🤣🤣🤣

People here adored 538 odds last month when they were 71% favorable for a democratic takeover of the senate

"It's absolutely hilarious there are still people out there who care about the discredited ...."

A DJT formulation; anything may replace the ellipsis.

It was proven to be a stupid and unreliable way of assessing the state of political races in 2016. I see some didn't get the memo

"I see some didn't get the memo"

Could you change "memo" to "theymo"?

I get that the Democratic Earthquake will be predicated on all competitive races being won by 51%. House saved and Senate +5 for Dems.

There’s another troll that actually keeps posting links to the predictit odds (which are based on the predilections of those gambling on the races lol) as if they mean anything at all. It’s just trolls trying to demoralize us, ignore them.

How's it looking? Senate's staying Dem, right?

I thought we weren't supposed to pay attention to polls anymore. A

Or is this just the TPTB saying "Nothing to see here, move on and do what you're told."

The important thing now is TURN OUT.

Get your friends and family to vote!

[quote]Get your friends and family to vote!

The last thing I want is for my family to vote.

Well, that’s for you to decide.

WHY is Katie Hobbs such a dead doorknob? she is the poster candidate for weak, non-messaging, doormat of a Dem. WHY is she such a pussy going up against the hissing cunt, Lake??? Would you count on Hobbs going to the mat to save your ass? Of course not! She’s taking a nap. She is emblematic of the Democratic Party. A stifled, non-confrontational wuss who is incapable of fighting fire with fire. A sure loss in AZ.

We do acknowledge that all the CA Orange County MAGATs moved to Arizona (and Idaho) to form extremist Nazi, white supremacists states.

COME ON. Use your fucking brains you Lilly-livered Dems!

Please

R371 From the state that gave us Kyrsten Sinema, I'm not surprised.

Once Lake becomes governor Arizona will join the ranks of Florida and Texas as the most deplorable states in the nation.

Sad for AZ...

Katie Hobbs never should have gotten nominated

Katie Hobbs won't debate. As far as I know she hasn't had a disabling stroke like Fetterman so really has no excuse.

Also Arizona just now....

In a sign the political tides are changing with less than two weeks before midterm elections, the nonpartisan 𝑪𝒐𝒐𝒌 𝑷𝒐𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒍 𝑹𝒆𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒕 𝒉𝒂𝒔 𝒄𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆𝒅 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑨𝒓𝒊𝒛𝒐𝒏𝒂 𝑺𝒆𝒏𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒓𝒂𝒄𝒆 𝒇𝒓𝒐𝒎 '𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒏 𝑫𝒆𝒎𝒐𝒄𝒓𝒂𝒕' 𝒕𝒐 '𝒕𝒐𝒔𝒔-𝒖𝒑.'

Despite Democrats outspending Republicans in the Copper State, the race was switched Thursday back to a toss up because recent private polling shows Blake Masters (R) and Sen. Mark Kelly (D) are neck-and-neck.

Also Thursday 𝑷𝒐𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒄𝒐 𝒔𝒘𝒊𝒕𝒄𝒉𝒆𝒅 𝒊𝒕𝒔 𝒐𝒘𝒏 𝒆𝒍𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒕 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝑨𝒓𝒊𝒛𝒐𝒏𝒂 𝒓𝒂𝒄𝒆 𝒇𝒓𝒐𝒎 𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒏𝒔 𝑫𝒆𝒎𝒐𝒄𝒓𝒂𝒕 𝒕𝒐 𝒕𝒐𝒔𝒔-𝒖𝒑.

The Senate race 𝒋𝒐𝒊𝒏𝒔 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒈𝒐𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒏𝒐𝒓'𝒔 𝒓𝒂𝒄𝒆 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒕𝒐𝒔𝒔-𝒖𝒑 𝒄𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒈𝒐𝒓𝒚 where Republican Kari Lake is polling slightly above Democrat Katie Hobbs by most measures. Both Lake and Masters have the backing of former President Trump.

Arizona is now one of five races labeled a toss-up, in addition to Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

A poll from left-leaning Data for Progress released Wednesday showed the candidates tied at 47 percent each.

The bottoming is dropping out

It doesn't help that Katie Hobbs sounds like a four year old when she speaks. A superficial point, but welcome to American politics.

I know it's Arizona but the idea that crazy person Lake could be elected governor... fuck me.

538 has senate odds at 53-47 for D-R.

And now 538 has Senate odds at 52-48 for D-R.

Down from 71 just several weeks ago. Has there ever before been such a decisive turnaround in such a short time..

Insider Advantage, in a PA poll conducted yesterday, now has Oz +3. Their October 19 poll had Fetterman up 1. Now Insider Advantage is about on par with CNN’s poll in terms of accuracy so take it with a grain of salt. I’m more interested in it (and all polls) for trends so I do find this interesting but not affirmative.

I would be shocked if Mark Kelly loses? That would say it all.

People are not voting for, they are voting against. And it isn't even necessarily the specific candidate they're voting against.

We did this. We did this to ourselves.

Why do I feel there is a red tsunami coming...

[quote] We did this. We did this to ourselves.

We nominated some clunkers, e.g., Fetterman, Barnes, but it's really hard to overcome inflationary numbers not seen since the early '80s.

Oooooh…..Hobbs is making a move. It appears as if Lake had someone break into Hobbs campaign headquarters.

The drama ensues.

[quote] it's really hard to overcome inflationary numbers not seen since the early '80s.

At least we get highway racial equity for our billions

God, he is such an idiot weasel.

DUMBASS!

The reporting of the polls is that just about every race is close and I don't believe that.

I hope it is that close, and I hope the results utterly fuck the duopoly.

[quote]It appears as if Lake had someone break into Hobbs campaign headquarters.

Hobbs thanks you for posting that disinformation.

CNN —

The Phoenix Police Department has arrested a 36-year-old man in connection with a break-in at Democratic Arizona gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs’ campaign headquarters earlier this week.

𝐃𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐞𝐥 𝐌𝐨𝐭𝐚 𝐃𝐨𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐢𝐬 was booked on one count of third-degree burglary, according to the department.

On Wednesday night, a patrol officer saw a news story that included a surveillance image and recognized the man shown as a suspect who had been arrested earlier in the day in connection with a separate, unrelated commercial burglary, police said in a statement Thursday.

“The officer researched the arrest and learned the suspect, 36-year-old Daniel Mota Dos Reis, was still in jail but would soon be released. The officer contacted the jail and was able to re-arrest Dos Reis,” according to the statement.

While police did not mention a potential motive in their statement, an incident report obtained by CNN said Dos Reis told authorities he “just needed a place to stay for the night because he was cold,” although it’s unclear what incident he was addressing.

An Apple computer mouse, Apple keyboard and a black Nikon camera were taken in the incident, according to the incident report.

Hobbs inexplicably tried to tie the burglary to Lake and her campaign rhetoric, police have not released any motive for the burglary or any evidence linking the suspect to the election or Lake’s campaign. In fact, 𝘿𝙤𝙨 𝙍𝙚𝙞𝙨’ 𝙨𝙤𝙘𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙢𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙖 𝙥𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙨 𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙝𝙚 𝙡𝙤𝙨𝙩 𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙟𝙤𝙗 𝙙𝙪𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙖𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙢𝙞𝙘 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙝𝙖𝙙 𝙝𝙞𝙩 𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙙 𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚𝙨. 𝙄𝙛 𝙖𝙣𝙮𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜, 𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙨𝙤𝙘𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙢𝙚𝙙𝙞𝙖 𝙥𝙤𝙨𝙩𝙨 𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙖 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙜𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙫𝙚, 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙖𝙣𝙩𝙞-𝘼𝙢𝙚𝙧𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙣 𝙗𝙚𝙣𝙩. 𝙃𝙚 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙝𝙤𝙥𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙢𝙤𝙫𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙀𝙪𝙧𝙤𝙥𝙚:

Sounds like a DLer then

538 has Senate odds at 51:49, Dems:Reps

666 had it as 50.005 to 49. 095...

Two new PA post debate polls out today have Oz in the lead. Wick, which had Oz +5 in an earlier poll now has him +2. Up 5 always seemed like an outlier.

Co/efficient has Oz +3. This is their initial poll. Co/efficient is interesting in that it also polled favorability and neither candidate has a positive favorability rating. And, another interesting note here is that Fetterman polls better with African Americans than other groups so it will be interesting to see turnout in Philly. Co/efficient also seems to have an 80% accuracy rating with 538.

Shapiro also polls we’ll among African Americans…so I still see Fetterman eking out a win.

r397 Why is it surprising or interesting to note that Fetterman polls better than Oz with African Americans ? Did you expect African Americans to support a deplorable Republican like OZ more ?

No, I expected Fetterman to poll better across all demographics and he’s not according to this poll.

Obama rallying foe Dems has begun. Exciting!

[Has anyone noticed that autocorrect on DL is fucked up? You really can’t Oh, Dear now because it’s wonky as hell]

R355, Proof that a Republican (e.g., you) will say or do anything, including changing lies mid-accusation, to claim Electoral victory.

"Anything" does not, however, include reading the linked article in r349.

MEANWHILE,....

What's that you say, r355?

But wait! There's more!

Nothing much happens to the Republican felons, though.

Gonna be a lot of crying on election night. It's obvious people are more concerned about their finances and not abortion or J6... The Democrats once again didn't run on accomplishments they got done and just pushed the other stuff thinking it'd be enough... It won't be. People vote with their finances first and foremost. We better hope Biden or whoever can hold the presidency in 2024 or things are gonna get very very bad.

[quote] Obama rallying foe Dems has begun. Exciting!

Yay! That really helped them in '10 & '14 when he, also, wasn't on the ballot.

I felt sorry for daddy John. It seems like he has difficulties in everyday life communication after his stroke. I guess he needs some physical therapy.

I would be happy to he a cumdump for daddy John in case he needs a release.

R406, let’s hope Biden/replacement can, like Clinton (‘96) & Obama (‘12), successfully pivot against an extremist Republican Congress that also flipped mid-term.

R406, The thing about abortion and why it doesn't loom large EXCEPT to those against it---and they will never vote Democratic---is, well, manifold.

First is the visceral reaction to the word "abortion." It's harsh, one of those off-putting words that are like a punch. "It was an ABORTION, Michael!"

Secondly, abortions are, I would wager, unfortunate one-offs for most patients. So I doubt the average voter worries much about access to care for some procedure he or she might feel AT VOTING TIME far removed from.

Thirdly, "It's the economy, Stupid." And nothing makes a voter more myopic than his own wallet---not national employment figures and statistics; not international oil prices; not supply chains; and not what might be viewed as a secondary issue: abortion rights.

Fourth, there's religion. True, not every religion is anti-choice, but those that are, are the most vocal.

Fifth, many pro-choice advocates also say they would like there to be no need for abortions, in a perfect world. But all that position does is implicitly agree with their opposition that abortions are "bad."

Lastly, misogyny.

Sixth, many people who say they are prochoice simultaneously thing abortion is immoral, sinful, or otherwise problematic. It’s like people who think people who think samesex marriage should be a legal option, but think it’s immoral or sinful or inferior. Such people may nominally or theoretically support a right, but they are not going to bat for it.

[quote]Get your friends and family to vote!

Oh, don't worry, we will. We're not afflicted with apathy and laziness like the average Dem.

My family all turned Republican in the last 20 years. They said they didn’t leave the party, it left them.

An ever-expanding club, I'm afraid r413.

Turning Republican in the last 20 years says a lot. It means you are cool with open racism and homophobia, smearing shit in the Capitol, running back over protestors, Trump, Bush, the Iraq War, destroying the environment, the worst Covid response in the world, and a complete abandonment of conservatism. What exactly did Democrats do that was so bad - Obamacare? Gay marriage? Save a tanked economy?

So of course parole say “the party left me.” It absolves them of any responsibility.

You have no hope of getting them back unless you are first rigorously honest about why they felt they could not longer stay, r415. If instead, you make up stories to 'explain' the phenomenon, then you automatically lose a golden opportunity.

How do get bigots back?

BTFW, how on earth has the MSM embraced the euphemism of the word ‘tribalism’ other than fucking racism and white supremacy? I am not Jewish, but I knew the phrase ‘I know that tribe’ was an insulting phrase between one Jewish person to another Jewish person.

No, this MAGAtry is flat out all about White supremacy/KKK that is antisemitic and rascist against POC.

Stop fucking using euphemisms and twisted and dangerous linguistic techniques as a way to neutralize an abdication of responsibility. Stop enabling these MAGAts and fight fire with fire. It’s a defeatist/apologist self-inflicted by a certain non-Protestant group.

Well if that's how the whole party thinks, r417, expect the Left to positively bleed supporters with no staunching of the wound and no way to get those voters back.

[quote]Stop fucking using euphemisms and twisted and dangerous linguistic techniques as a way to neutralize an abdication of responsibility.

Oh, you mean like "pro-choice" to white wash the murder of babies in the womb?

It was easy being a casual white supremacist when all of America, Democrats and Republicans, voted white. But once the supremacists started losing the "culture wars", it was time to be honest and.move to the Republican Party.

You are referring to that uppity Barack Obama?

To tell the truth, it’s possible that your average POC or other marginalized group (gays) started to regard White patriarchy/ whites as being simply equal, not higher or lower…and this was offensive and an existential threat to many average (or less so, poor) whites.

Let’s be honest. Having a black man who showed intelligence, dignity, and kindness at every turn was a trigger to many white Americans who have none of those qualities. He didn’t have to do anything, his elevation was plenty.

The current political landscape may be in its last throes. Deplorables are mostly white and old, and both numbers will dwindle. However, other groups seem to be moving to center left (occasionally crossing over). This is why Republicans do not have an agenda - it’s pure culture war and economic scapegoating.

^^^On point! Thanks.

I’ll be cumming non-stop when Gen Z fucks over these white, old (dirt poor, low IQ) Deplorables and votes overwhelmingly Dem.

Sorry, I didn’t mean to offend rural white farming, pig fucking, wife-beating, daughter-fucking, tabacca-chewing, AK-47 toting, dumb duck, deplorable white trash.

Young people could change this next week if they just voted. 2018: 31 percent turnout for under 30, 64 percent for over 65. 2020: 51 percent to 76 for seniors.

R420, No, more like "Second Amendment rights" to "whitewash the murder of" children in schools.

I'm seeing commercials of how John Fetterman specifically and Democrats generally are "soft on criminals." A standard theme of Republicans.

Never mind the immense irony of Trump and his followers having committed the biggest crime seen in a century. AND the on-going crime of Trump’s possession and likely sale of Top Secret documents. In addition, there is corruption in the Secret Service.

But then, Americans have always been susceptible to the Bogeyman of Violent Street Criminal more than the REALITY of treason. [See: Horton, Willie]

The Republicans are experts---give "credit" its due---at fear-mongering. They do it every election, bar none. And Americans often fall for it.

That is, it is easier to frighten a man for his physical safety than for the removal of his democratic rights. January 6 showed Americans as aggressors; Republican commercials show Americans as victims. Going after "election thieves" vs. being attacked by released felons, illegal immigrants, "Antifa," and maybe even Trans-genders.

Moreover, the inaction of Merrick Garland and the DOJ regarding DJT subliminally and significantly reinforces Republican voters' belief that Democrats are "weak." Biden's age, Fetterman's stroke, heck, even Tim Kaine's demeanor--all play into this. Fair or not, politics ain't tiddlywinks. With all his malapropisms, Trump was and is always viewed as aggressive.

Millions of Americans like aggressive. Highly value aggressive. Reward aggressive.

Now, did all the above get them the Presidency, House, or Senate in 2020?

No. But this is 2022, and once again Democrats seem incapable of fighting the Culture Wars, thinking that all the impressive accomplishments of the Biden Administration and the J6 Committee should suffice.

We will find out soon enough, after thousands of Republican vote challenges.

[quote]The Republicans are experts---give "credit" its due---at fear-mongering. They do it every election, bar none. And Americans often fall for it.

And Democrats do a really bad job of countering it. "Actually, crime was worse in 1974" is not an answer that allays anyone's fears.

That’s because MAGAt males admit that they have small dicks that have low sperm counts. Fucker Carlson and Josh Haley admitted as much. That is why if they can even manage by will or force to impregnate an adult human female, then she must bear his small-forced manhood.

The delusion is strong @ R424.

I.e. Small-forced manhood, tiny 4-inch, pencil dick manhood child of his. That his Y-gamete produce yet another small-forced, tiny 4-inch, bow-tied manhood male child produced by shallow-vaginal-penetrating-dick sons.

I mean, Swanson’s Frozen meals depend on it for fuck’s sake!

[quote]Deplorables are mostly white and old, and both numbers will dwindle.

Good thing we're here to pick up the slack.

Are you okay, R434? Maybe lay down, sleep it off?

Latest USA Today numbers: 40% of Hispanics and 21% of Blacks are backing the Republican party

Yes, based on scientific (MAGAt disinfecting) SCIENCE, shallow-vaginal penetration impregnation tends to produce sons, while deep-penetration impregnation tends to produce daughters.

FACT.

R437. Phony land line foot-in-grave elderly poll predicts…Puke/Odd Oz win over Fetterman. Right….

You betcha!

I wasn't aware of USA Today being biased toward the right.

[quote]Phony land line foot-in-grave elderly poll predicts…Puke/Odd Oz win over Fetterman. Right….

Except it was both landline AND cellphone.

The polls have been off because so many right wing types lie to pollsters. I think House goes to Reps and the Senate could be 53 Reps in control. Don’t assume Hochul will win in NY either.

Democrats need to understand that minorities are getting turned off by woke stuff. And calling people racists doesn’t get you votes.

Link please…

Why would they lie to pollsters, r442?

[quote]Democrats need to understand that minorities are getting turned off by woke stuff. And calling people racists doesn’t get you votes.

What was shocking to me was Fetterman’s favorability rating among Hispanics was unbelievably bad…33% Favorable vs. 60% unfavorable. And with Oz it was the opposite 53% favorable bs 32% unfavorable.

^in the co/efficient poll.

Every time Fetterman’s wife uses the word ablest they lose more Hispanic votes.

Linkie please…

FACTS matter.

Hispanics have close ties to the Catholic Church, so it’s little wonder why they’re drifting away from a party that, in their eyes, is promoting abortion rights above all else. Especially now that this issue’s on the ballot.

So do Italians. I don’t see them flocking to the Pigs.

^^^Directly referring to Nancy D’Alesandro Pelosi^^^

What happened to Abrams in Georgia? I thought she had more of a constituency there.

Erm, FYI: Catholic girls have a LOT of abortions.

I don't think the reproductive rights issue is as strong with them as some posters think. I mean, a lot of so-called Catholics don't even go to church.

^Maybe, but they still believe its wrong. And they will never place the right to abortion above other issues.

I don't think Oz can actually deliver as a PA Senator. PA is a BIG state with a diverse constituency with all sorts of issues related to industry, health care, social welfare, etc. Oz doesn't seem that interested.

If he wins, he'll be one of the worst senators the state ever had. He won't be able to just skate through his duties and responsibilities.

He's seeking the spotlight but isn't up to the job. Good luck failing Pennsylvanians.

[quote]He's seeking the spotlight but isn't up to the job

Hmm. You don't say.

Pennsylvania is all about Hoopie supremacy. They don't need a good Senator.

10 days left!

^ No polling updates, so very unlike things here so close to an election. DLers have resigned themselves to the inevitable.

Polls are useless now since early voting is already taking place in most states.

We can win, if you vote the democratic candidate and policy.

Vote Blue!

Why does Schumer think Georgia is lost?

^ Internal polling must be very bad.

[quote]Internal polling must be very bad.

Well, the last four public polls and a Walker campaign poll have Walker in the lead. So, yeah, it looks bad.

The reason Obama went down to Georgis for Stacy Abrams is because so much of the black vote is going for Walker, apparently.

I was listening to that Fox hack Brett Hume, who covered the Senate for ABC News, talk about how voting was just a small part of being a Senator as he argued that Fetterman was not capable of performing the duties of a senator. I know he didn’t raise such concerns about Walker.

^^^GeorgiA

We're gonna lose the Senate and the House... Not good.

At this rate, if a third woman comes forth with receipts for another Walker-encouraged abortion, Walker could win in a landslide.

Don't be defeatist, dear. It's very middle class.

There’s already record breaking early voting in Georgia. That’s a good sign at least.

I'm actually pretty sure Dems will hold the Senate. Definitely vote, but I wouldn't worry much or at all about it.

R471, the Washington Post has noted that a robust early vote is not a good indicator of how an election will turn out.

What is the basis for your confidence, R472? Just good, old-fashioned, cockeyed optimism?

On one hand, a late Election Day, 11/8, the latest it could legally be held, gives the Dems (faint) hope for a late momentum shift in their favor. On the other hand, they could be hoist by their own petard by their enshrinement of early voting which would dampen the effects of any such late momentum shift.

R474, when things are deemed too close to call, the more dramatic of the two outcomes rarely occurs—the outcome closer to the status quo is usually the result.

Yes, yes.....so true, R476.

A couple of week ago there was a snarky post about the inferiority of the modern (trigger warning: closely associated with Britain) parliamentary system. As a (trigger warning) non-American, I've been watching the election and feeling like something is missing... which to me is leadership and a campaign with a focal point. But it still strikes me there are some slight advantages to the parliamentary system, in that everybody runs at the same time and everybody is, in many respects, in together and their fates are tied to one another. The leader of the party doesn't really have a voice in the U.S. model, unless he's running or unless invited in if not. So there is no overall, national voice that's consistently out there and consequently generating coverage. You just have a hodge podge of local voices running to win locally - on local terms. Which is probably why party unity and party discipline are even harder for the Democrats in office. Ayanna Pressley is free to run a wildly different campaign than Tim Ryan. There is no party cohesion.

I'm not arguing one system is superior to the other because nothing's cast in stone but I do think the staggered U.S. approach to elections complicates election narratives and makes governing harder. Every two years you say to the electorate: punish them a little - keep this party in the White House, but put this one in control in the House and one of the two gets the Senate. Because of the hyper partisanship it's a recipe for gridlock and stagnation. Whereas with the parliamentary system you have to think long and hard about throwing the bastards out because it usually means a total change of government. And in countries with multi-party legislatures, it forces compromise (although it can also create instability, when a coalition collapses.) No system is perfect but I question how the regularity of elections actually benefits the American people and if it makes it harder to communicate one vision the party intends to implement. Seems to me the Republicans just have to sit back and wait, hence their lack of a platform.

Well, that's true but when there are so many close races, if ALL races breath for the status quo and ALL races go to the Democrats with 51%, that would be a landslide.

[quote] when things are deemed too close to call, the more dramatic of the two outcomes rarely occurs—the outcome closer to the status quo is usually the result.

Historically, tight races usually break in the end toward the party out of power.

R477, that wasn't too close to call: everyone said Hillary would win. Even if you reject that, note the use of "usually."

Life is that way: things usually go to the mean if things are close. Tipping points are usually clearly overshot or undershot. Close calls where the previous status quo are overturned are generally rare in life.

As an American abroad who's lived in the UK for about 25 years, there's a lot to like about the parliamentary system. Firstly, the morning right after the election, if the sitting PM's party loses they are right out the back of No. 10 while the PM of the winning party moves in the front door. Also, it forces compromise, sometimes cross-party compromise.

While are current UK electoral system isn't fully representative of the electorate, it's probably not as bad as in the U.S. where all the red state elections are already rigged in favour of a state government that cannot be replaced because they've rigged the state constitutions and gerry-mandered all the districts.

R482 The American system is specifically designed to limit the power and influence of the national government, and if you recall the founders were dead set against the existence of political parties. The entire idea was to force candidates to run independently of each other. Given that, their system works as intended.

Also, Democrats gerrymander every bit as much as Republicans do. To paraphrase Nancy Pelosi "if you get rid of gerrymandering, you can kiss the Congressional Black Caucus goodbye."

R483 was also for R478. Not saying it's a superior system, but it is indeed a system and functions as intended.

Except the function of two hundred years ago now seems to breed the dysfunction of today.

It all underscores why strict constitutional originalism is shackles progress.

I read that Dr. Oz just took over the lead in the latest polls due to the debate performance.

Jesus Christ.

82/18 odds for the Senate. I think that's an improvement.

And a good reason to eliminate the Electoral College.

Without the EC none of this nonsense would be happening.

R487, that is Republicans’ odds of winning the House. Democrats are 52-48 to keep the Senate.

At least it creates space for renewal of the Democratic leadership in the House. There is no need for any of them to cling on now.

So silly that you guys still believe in those stupid odds!!! 😂

R491, didn't you say that multiple times above? Why so triggered?

Some of us think they have some probative value. So what.

R486, R489 I'm freshly back from a ban, so I have learned what happens to people who speak honestly about the Democratic Party. I'll keep this vague and short.

The country has existed with this political system for almost 250 years. If you can't adapt to the fundamental structure of the American government, which shouldn't be hard for you, you deserve to lose.

You are pathetic sociopaths if you think you can force a massive overhaul of American society and governance in order to keep yourselves in power indefinitely. It will not happen, and you will be chewed up and spit out.

By that standard, though, R493, America is Marley's ghost. But I agree change will only happen incrementally.

Be most leery of sources citing the RCP average of polls.

I don't know about other people, but I am deeply concerned that the government worked secretly behind the scenes with social media platforms AND wikipedia to censor people and ideas and then worked to spread information they wanted out there.

To me this is huge. Without free speech we have nothing and no information to help us make decisions like voting.

People have been making the argument that a lot of social media has been turned into quasi-public utilities and as such they need to be under the dictates of the First Amendment - or else lose their Section 230 protections from civil liability. Now we see that they were actively involved with the government censorship and feeding info to the public? That makes them as much an agent of the government as an undercover drug seller working on behalf of the government. In both situations the government cannot circumvent the law or the Constitution by farming its work out.

[quote] but I am deeply concerned that the government worked secretly behind the scenes with social media platforms AND wikipedia to censor people and ideas and then worked to spread information they wanted out there.

Other than “people are saying,” do you have any real, concrete evidence of this alleged collusion with the government?

R496, this is the only recent example of that. It passed into law a while back.

[quote] Be most leery of sources citing the RCP average of polls.

There are some people who don’t like that RCP provides equal time to the left and the right, pairing one story of a subject from the left’s view with another from the right. It’s a good site to see what both sides are saying. I like to a variety of poll results. If the NYT tries to pull a stunt with the Dems inexplicably suddenly way out ahead, it’s good to have other polls to compare it too.

“I like to see a variety of poll results. If the NYT tries to pull a stunt with the Dems inexplicably, suddenly way out ahead, it’s good to have other polls to compare it to.”

There is speculation Dems internal polling is bad because of the desperate way they are spending money on ads now.

The Republicans are spending just as much money, if not more. Does that mean their internal polling is bad, R501? Or could it be that, I don’t know, it’s the last two weeks of the fucking election?

R499, it’s not your father’s RCP anymore. I used to regularly frequent that site as a clearinghouse for its variety of views. But, as the linked, 2020, NYT article confirms, it went downhill starting with the ascension of Trump. It’s now a voice mainly of the very far right. To the extent it still features liberal commentators, they’re mostly included for penning pieces critical of the Dems on one subject or another. So it doesn’t surprise me to see that their once vaunted polling averages aren’t what they use to be.

R501 Publicly released polls usually have a 5 point or more bias toward Democrats, based on the past ten years. Internal polling must be brutal.

We already know!

50/50 Senate odds.

51/49 GOP Senate.

[quote] Publicly released polls usually have a 5 point or more bias toward Democrats

🙄🙄🙄

Democrats will win all races by 1-2%.

Cheney endorses Tim Ryan

Hmmmm. The flood of October polls were mainly Republican ones that skewed the averages on 538 and RCP?

Please start new thread.

r504 is talking out of his ass.

Actually, r504 isn’t all that wrong. Polls, especially in swing states, have skewed to Democrats over the last few cycles. In 2016 it was mainly because turnout in rural areas was higher than expected and as a result pollsters undersampled republicans and in 2018 Republicans weren’t being honest with some pollsters. Pollsters thought they had it worked out in 2020 but polls still leaned toward the Democrats, which is how you had Biden winning Florida and competitive in Ohio and Texas.

An example of this is today’s Morning Call/Mulhenburg College poll. The pollster is accurate 85% of the time in that they called a race correctly…but the difference between the poll and actual the actual results skew heavily toward Democrats. And when you have them polling a tight race like Fetterman/Oz you have to consider the skew.

So what will we be doing instead of following the election returns next week?

Come January, seat our new majority regardless of “confirmation” or election deniers. Then ram through our own legislation, impeach the extreme SCOTUS or immediate increase the number of judges and reverse every piece of shit bill that the Pukes ever passed and end the filibuster.

My only fear is the Dems fail to move fast enough or Biden will INSIST on reaching across the aisle

Also, lift the statute of limits on Rape/incest to unlimited. And get ALL those backlogged rape kits processed.

R515 The same thing we do every night...gently weeping into our Chardonnay and wishing we were European.

R516 Lol can you imagine what would happen if the fascists won?

Here’s another day male tarot reader. He’s very good. Friends with Mel Doerr.

***ALERT***

GEORGIA and TEXAS. Vote for the two DEM female candidates running forAttorneyGeneral or else they will not enforce your laws.

Vote Blue all down the ballot. Do it!

Ooops. Jen Jorden in Georgia and Rochelle Garza in Texas. Vote Blue!

Hillary as on Joy Reid last night warning about the fact that, if republicans take control of the House, McCarthy will appoint Greene, Boebert, and Gaetz to major committee chairs in repayment for their support for his Speaker campaign. She asked what would be the reaction if the public knew this. What Reid ( as well as every other talking head) failed to ask is ," Why haven't the Dems hammered this home to the voters?" We all know the answer - Dems aren't very bright and are tragically politically unsavvy.

Bump

[quote]What Reid ( as well as every other talking head) failed to ask is ," Why haven't the Dems hammered this home to the voters?" We all know the answer - Dems aren't very bright and are tragically politically unsavvy.

It wouldn't matter -- no one voting Republican is going to switch to the Democratic candidate because Matt Gaetz might get a committee chair. No Gen Zer is going to get off his ass and go vote because Lauren Boebert might get one.

If you're not already motivated or inspired to vote against the vile corruption of the Republican party, you don't care if their "leading lights" are poised to run roughshod over our system of government.

Every Democrat needs to talk and run a campaign like Tim Ryan. Talking about kitchen table issues in a plain, unaffected manner that resonates with the average voter. Inside baseball shit like who might get a committee chair? Yeah, that resonates with exactly nobody but party activists.

[quote] lift the statute of limits on Rape/incest to unlimited.

Are you crazy? Or does due process and fair trial just not fit into your Utopia?

R81, One major flaw in your otherwise sound argument that Republicans vote "R" (I vote "D," not the particular person):

Republicans do not now advance and never have advanced "the interests" of 99% of their voters.

[quote] Republicans do not now advance and never have advanced "the interests" of 99% of their voters.

But the Republicans say the same thing about Democrats.

R528.= MAGAt.

WTF do you mean. What I stated is the very essence of due process and fair trials. Science and rape psychology has irrefutably proven that rape victims block out the incident due to the trauma, like, they don’t remember as a defense, self-protection coping mechanism.

But of course, you MAGAt troll, do not believe in science.

Blocked…fucking MAGAt troll. You show your hypocrite ass so easily because you are a dumb fuck!

GOP 53-47 Senate

Again, who is voting in these polls I've never been asked nor has anyone I know? It's all a crock.

R533, here's some info from Gallup.

[quote]Every Democrat needs to talk and run a campaign like Tim Ryan.

New PA poll has Oz up by 2

54-46 Senate GOP

^ This is trending such that it’ll be well over 60 for Republicans by next Tuesday.

Republicans are suspicious of early voting- there were lots of online rumors of Trump ballots being found in dumpsters in 2020. Whatever turnout they have will be on election day itself, mostly.

Does anyone know where to find the numbers for early voting turnout? It feels like it's petering out where I live. Everyone who was planning to vote early did it in the first couple of days.

Polling of Cuban Americans.

I thought black voters also prefer to vote on Election Day?

Here's my fear: the voting will be very close, particularly in PA which seems to be a bit slow in counting votes (and I believe in some cases, counties can't start to count until after the polls are close) & it's going to be an absolute shitshow with people erroneously claiming victors & challenges in court. I read something on twitter (yeah, I know..) that the PA Supreme court agreed to throw out some ballots with some incorrect info (early votes), which worries me that Fetterman will win, but the repigs will try to get a lot of votes thrown out.

[quote]Every Democrat needs to talk and run a campaign like Tim Ryan. Talking about kitchen table issues in a plain, unaffected manner that resonates with the average voter.

I agree with this. It feels to me like there hasn't been a decent Democratic strategist since Carville and Begala and it's the economy, stupid. That was my problem with Biden's speech last night. He didn't translate the threat plain. Jon Meacham, whose insight I love on CNN, had a hand in it but it was too flowery. Urgency you can believe was lacking. It's like your doctor who tells you for twenty years to lose weight and then finally, after your bypass, says if you don't change your diet, you'll die. The point being, people will find any excuse they can to ignore or rationalize bad news. Biden's speech was not change your diet or you'll die.

Five days left!

^I'm wondering if there is a strategy for Biden to Mr. Above the Fray while Obama & Clinton make speeches telling everyone straight up that the repigs want to take over so they can burn everything down.

The key is really the youth vote; it will make all the difference. But whether or not they see a sense of urgency or are just too busy looking at their phones...I guess we'll find out soon

Early voting numbers are looking rough in Nevada

[quote]The key is really the youth vote.

[quote]Early voting numbers are looking rough in Nevada

"While there was no universal mail-ballot system in 2018, the vote totals through the first week of early voting in that year’s midterm elections are fairly similar to what Nevada is seeing this year.

That year, about 129,000 Democrats voted during the first week of early voting (which includes about 16,000 total mail-in and absentee ballots) compared to 124,290 Republicans. That was a lead of about 1.4 percentage points for the Democrats, who went on to sweep all but one statewide race that year — the race for secretary of state — and take a supermajority in one chamber of the state Legislature."

If only Dobbs had been issued in October ...

If only Gen Z and Millennials voted. They will pay for the last three elections for the rest of their lives as they burn and get drenched by climate change, dodge bullets shot by armed and emboldened Deplorables, and fork over all their earnings to fund the tax cuts and spending lavished on their grandparents and parents.

The fifteen minutes they save by not voting means others will write their future. Oh, well.

There might be a huge victory in Ukraine soon. That'll help Biden.

James Carville thinks it’s gonna be an ugly red tide next week, largely because Democrats utterly failed at messaging

Inflation & gas prices eventually will subside but once you erode your democracy in favor of right wing authoritarianism its hard to get it back. For example, look at abortion rights, book bans, voter suppression, & as always, Jan 6. Americans always learn the hard way.

[quote] There might be a huge victory in Ukraine soon. That'll help Biden.

The only Ukraine-related thing that would seriously affect the vote is a lower cost of gas. The war cannot end soon enough to impact that at this late date.

[quote] James Carville thinks it’s gonna be an ugly red tide next week, largely because Democrats utterly failed at messaging

James "it's the economy, stupid" Carville has to know that no messaging was going to counteract the highest inflation rates in 40 years.

Everybody thought the GOP had the bad candidates (Walker, Mastriano, etc), but the Dems countered with their own candidates like Worst Campaigner In History Katie Hobbs, radical Mandela Barnes, utter incompetant Fetterman and debate underperformers Kelly and Hochul.

If the PA Dems had nominated Connor Lamb, this race wouldn't even be close.

^ Will the Fettermaniacs ever admit to that?

[quote]Americans always learn the hard way.

When did that start?

Fetterman would have won comfortably but for his stroke. No one foresaw a sudden medical emergency

^ Of course. But he knew how serious his stroke was. He should have dropped out at a point at which the party could've named a replacement.

Republicans seem underwhelmed by this election. There is no Republican door to door campaign in my area.

Registered Democratic seem more engaged.

Please Vote!

Vote for the Democratic Candidates and policy (propositions).

Majorie Taylor Green Doing NOTHING To Campaign For Re-Election

Because she has 99% chance of winning. So MTG is not doing NOTHING to campaign to win her seat

All she has done is put her name on the ballot. That is it

culture wars guarantee she wins

And that name would be, C U N T.

Michael Moore was on MSNBC saying Democrats will win the midterms

Michael Moore is delusional. Silly progressive. Why can't the democrats put up moderate or left-center candidates?

Oprah is endorsing John Fetterman.

[quote]Does anyone know where to find the numbers for early voting turnout? It feels like it's petering out where I live. Everyone who was planning to vote early did it in the first couple of days.

It should be petering out the closer you get to Election Day. I’m in PA and we’re past the date to request a ballot and if you have a ballot it needs to be returned by Tuesday. So depending on where you are it’s probably too late to mail them.

And in PA ballots aren’t even allowed to be opened until Election Day. Someone upthread erroneously said that some counties start the count before Election Day.

R539, Republicans are ignorant. Ignorant liars. How, pray, would ballots for any particular candidate be 1.) acquired? 2.) be separated from any opponent's?

Oh, wait. Must've been by Jewish lasers in the sky. Or by followers of the deceased Venezuelan Hugo Chavez. No, no; the traitors were Antifa Fascists, led by Fake Hillary and financed by George Soros!

r560, his stroke is not that serious. His speech and cognitive facilities will return AFTER the election. It was just too recent during the debate. He should have canceled it and just gave prepared statements.

R553, January 6 is a non-starter. You know it, too; you can feel it. Gone, like a cancelled show.

The incompetent and lackadaisical DoJ, aka Casper Milquetoast Garland, has seen to that.

And its burial will be next week, if the Red Tide and all its concomitant disease, dead fish, and overwhelming bad odors rolls in.

Well…I vaguely remember Merrick Milquetoast Garfinkle state he wasn’t going to indict Shitler until after Jan. 6 Committee wraps up.

[quote]his stroke is not that serious. His speech and cognitive facilities will return AFTER the election. It was just too recent during the debate. He should have canceled it and just gave prepared statements.

His stroke was very serious and six months ago. Even he reluctantly admitted that he almost died. Most of a person’s recovery comes within the first few weeks. Six months and beyond recovery is much slower if it’s going to happen at all.

James Carville is a fucking idiot , he said Trump and Republicans would be washed out in 2020 election but Biden barely won swing states and Dems lost a lot of congressional races.

Lest there was any doubt, R570 puts a lie to any notion that fact denialism is an attribute solely the province of MAGAts.

Into shooting the messenger, are you, R574?!

R569 Poll workers. As R541 pointed out, this is also a common fear in the black community.

[quote]veryone who was planning to vote early did it in the first couple of days.

I dropped mine off last night. Three cars came in behind me to do the same.

55-45 GOP Senate

January 6 events investigation is very important for partisan Democrats. All other voters ... not so much.

True. The rest of the country rolls their eyes when January 6 is mentioned

[quote]January 6 events investigation is very important for partisan Democrats.

Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger are not participating to make partisan Democrats happy.

Yes but they are effectively excommunicated from the GOP

Democrats did a horrible job of responding to Dobbs with potent messaging that did not just frame the decision as about abortion but about a broad attack on freedoms Americans broadly cherish

Democrats are competitive in an election that historical trends indicate would be a wipeout. In light of that, it seems a bit ridiculous to condemn them of doing a "horrible job" of anything.

We'll see how competitive they actually where when the election is over and we see the results.

Huge Ukraine victory coming. Expect a pretty dramatic turnaround. Dems will keep the Senate.

[quote] Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, said any remaining civilians in Kherson in southern Ukraine should leave, his first public acknowledgement that Ukrainian forces are drawing close to the occupied city. Reports emerged on Thursday that Russian troops were retreating to the east bank of the Dnieper river, though Ukrainian officials warned it could be a trap. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said 4.5m of his countrymen were without power, as Russia continued to bomb Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

You really think voters care about Ukraine?

They don't

Democratic pollster

[quote]Democrats are competitive in an election that historical trends indicate would be a wipeout.

Democrats won 193 House seats in the 2010 shellacking. We’ll see if they do better or worse than that. It will take losing 27 seats to get to it, so losing anything more than that will be something worse than shellacking.

Most moderate Republicans like McConnell don't support Trump or Jan 6.

They have to go along because of the base and hope in time to move beyond that.

FINAL ARIZONA POLL By @Peoples_Pundit

SEN (R) Blake Masters: 49% (+1) (D) Mark Kelly: 48%

GOV (R) Kari Lake: 51% (+4) (D) Katie Hobbs: 47%

AG (R) Abraham Hamadeh: 49% (+3) (D) Kris Mayes: 46%

SOS (R) Mark Finchem: 47% (=) (D) Adrian Fontes: 47%

Arizona will need to change its name to Hitler House

Margin of error polls in a reddish-purple state doesn't seem that miserable to me. Just hope weak guv candidate doesn't affect Kelly too badly.

If they were wrong then, they could be just as wrong now. Ignore all the idiots trying to find signal in the noise by doing probabilistic analysis. It's all bullshit.

All you can do is Vote.

It is being shown that Republican Dark money has purchased too many empty polls, hoping for Self Fulfilling Prophecy to kick in.

Most of the polls are just purchased extensions of the Big Lie.

I stand by my prediction, Democrats will all competitive races by 1%.

Do Republicans think the Unaffiliated aren't watching them?

[quote]will all competitive races

will WIN all competitive races

Which Republican and which Democrat have run the worst campaigns?

Masto is a very effective senator and very hardworking but she didn't campaign well.

Among Republicans, i dont think anyone ran a bad campaign.

If the Republicans take over, voters will quickly learn the meaning of "Be careful what you wish for."