I saw Tár, and I don't think Blanchett will bag a third for that performance. I just don't feel it, but I have been wrong many times before. If it does win something major, I feel like Blanchett will be the first place it looks to. Though, Supporting Actress is so open right now, who knows who will win (I can't even rule out Nina Hoss, even though that seems unfathomable right now). Jamie Lee Curtis seems like the most "obvious" contender for Supporting Actress as she has a rich narrative, but her big hurdle is getting nominated for a "fun" performance (I loved her btw; just not sure the Academy will go for her). Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) is another dark horse. If Women Talking is winning screenplay, I'm not sure it can pull out another major win.
I hope Michelle Yeoh wins, but I don't know where the Academy will decide to give EEA@O statues. It could give it screenplay and call it a day. Or, it could shower it with several above-the-line wins.
As far as The Fabelmans, I haven't seen it. It sounds like a borderline lead/supporting role (I've heard both from several comments on the internet). It does seems like Best Actress would be the first place it goes to (valentine to Spielberg's mom), or Best Director.
I feel like Banshee of Inisherin will win something. Supporting Actor or Actor seem like the category(ies) that could happen, though Brendan Fraser might gun for the win in Best Actor. Gleeson might hold off Quan, even though Quan has a great narrative. Again, Everthing Everywhere All at Once can't win everything ... everywhere ... all at once... lol, etc.
My predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking
Best Original Screenplay: EEA@O
Best Director: Spielberg, The Fablemans
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshee of Inisherin
After that ...
Best Picture: Fablemans or EEA@O Actress: Williams vs. Yeoh (or Blanchett or Danielle Deadwyler for Till) Actor: Fraser vs. Farrell (or Austin Butler for Elvis)
Best Supporting Actress: Depends on who is nominated, but it has to be one of Jessie Buckley, Claire Foy, Jamie Lee Curtis, Dolly De Leon, Hong Chau, or Nina Hoss. I think Buckley or Curtis seem like winners to me, if not De Leon as a dark horse.