Oscar Best Actress Battle Royale

I would definitely go for the lock.

I’ve heard that Cate is just too good not to win.

It’s going to be between Cate and Michelle Yeoh. Williams isn’t even guaranteed a nom at this point. She’s up against Viola in a black female fronted action movie that is currently having a surprising financial success, it girl Margot Robbie, and perennial critic favorite Olivia Colman. They’re not going to give Cate a third over Michelle Yeoh, a deserving and incredible actress, for a lesbian metoo movie.

It's either between Cate Blanchett or Michelle Yeoh at this point. Yeoh is most likely to win since the Oscars have been on a trend of desperately trying to prove that they're not racists and care about non-white people in the past few years.

Shelley Yeoh deserves the Best Actress because she’s not a white devil

What will Glenn be losing for this year?

I’m a horror fan making a futile attempt to get attention for Mia Goth’s performance in “PEARL.” It was Oscar-worthy and shouldn’t be overlooked because of genre.

Emma Thompson will be nominated for in Good Luck to you, Leo Grande.

[quote]Emma Thompson will be nominated for in Good Luck to you, Leo Grande

No, she won't be, even though, she presented her weather-beaten pussy.

Nobody saw or cared about that movie R8. She’s not part of the conversation.

Viola is a lock.

[quote] Emma Thompson will be nominated for in Good Luck to you, Leo Grande

[quote]No, she won't be, even though, she presented her weather-beaten pussy.

That wasn’t Emma’s. Camilla stepped in as her stunt cunt.

Sigourney Weaver

what is the Michelle Yeoh film you think she will be nominated for?

R4, Academy voters gave Frances McDormand a third Oscar over two black women, and Anthony Hopkins a second over the late Chadwick Boseman just two years ago. If they feel like handing Cate a third Oscar instead of Yeoh, they will, even if Twitter throws a fit. That’s what separates Oscar voters from the pathetic, craven Academy board.

And R14, Yeoh will be nominated for Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Has Jada approved her nomination R15?

Yeoh has the advantage of being in a movie that hit critically and financially. Williams might be in the same position if her movie hits with the public as it’s already raved about by critics. The supporting categories are weak this year and Williams would’ve been a lock in that category.

I thought Bozeman was good but Hopkins had a performance for the ages.

The Hollywood Reporter’s initial assessment:

*BEST ACTRESS*

Frontrunners

Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

Cate Blanchett (Tár)

Viola Davis (The Woman King)

Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)

Major Threats

Danielle Deadwyler (Till)

Ana de Armas (Blonde)

Rooney Mara (Women Talking)

Jessica Chastain (The Good Nurse)

Carey Mulligan (She Said)

Zoe Kazan (She Said)

Vicky Krieps (Corsage)

Lea Seydoux (One Fine Morning)

Possibilities

Emma Corrin (Lady Chatterley’s Lover)

Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway)

Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande)

Mia Goth (Pearl)

Keke Palmer (Nope)

Tang Wei (Decision to Leave)

Florence Pugh (The Wonder)

Florence Pugh (Don’t Worry Darling)

Still to See

Naomi Ackie (I Wanna Dance with Somebody)

Anna Diop (Nanny)

Margot Robbie (Babylon)

Sigourney Weaver (Avatar: The Way of Water)

Letitia Wright (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

I think we can take Don't Worry Darling off the list.

Mia Goth is developmental disability

I think going lead will help Williams. It's the exact opposite of the usual category fraud and the movie seems to be something a wide swath of voters will like. I would put Yeoh before Blanchett. They're going to make her wait for her third and she's become quite off putting.

Feinberg’s assessments from R18 are always pretty bad. Last year he kept Jude Hill from Belfast as a front runner for the longest time, even though Belfast kept underperforming and only one child has ever been nominated for Best Actor, and that was ninety years ago.

I do not believe Michelle Yeoh could possibly win an Oscar for an absurdist science fiction comedy. It sounds like a nomination is likely but either Michelle or Cate will win.

I don't think Viola is a sure bet. The movie will get a nomination for Best Picture because of the category size, but if Till gets excellent reviews, then I can picture D.D. ousting Viola from the Best Actress lineup. Till is going the movie to watch in the upcoming months.

I also don't think Ana de Armas is really a frontrunner anymore given how the movie is getting blasted in the press.

I would love for Sigourney to get another nomination. Fuck Cate and Michelle. Miss Weaver is LONG overdue.

What about Sigourney for The Good House?

Sigourney has been "waiting" far longer than the pinched Williams, and is far more talented.

Is it possible Michelle Williams could be nominated for Showing Up instead?

Another contender is Emily Watson for God's Creatures.

Deadwyler is going to be the real upset.

R27 For an indie Kelly Reichardt film that won't have the same level of promotion/campaign as Spielberg's film? highly unlikely! It doesn't even have a US release date yet, only a screening at the New York Film Festival next week. A24 is not good at campaigning/getting nominations for multiple films at the same time, and they already have The Whale (Brendan Fraser/Sadie Sink) and Everything Everywhere All at Once (Michelle Yeoh) as major contenders right now.

What about Sharah Jesshica Parker in Hocush Pocush 2?

R30 makes an excellent argument for why Williams won’t be nominated for Showing Up. The shorter version, though, is that it’s a Kelly Reichardt film.

A24 is also behind God's Creatures.

Will win - Cate Blanchett

Should win - Michelle Yeoh

It’s not an upset or virtually every insider has you in the top 5 R29.

I think Danielle from Till could win if the story is told powerfully enough. Its a horrible subject matter

Who actually liked Everything, Everywhere, All at Once? I thought Yeoh was very good in it, but I could not wait for the movie to end.

Cate Blanchett isn't winning shit.

And Michelle Williams is completely overrated.

R37, I loved it, never saw anything like it before.

St Vi is going to be nominated for that piece of shit?

I really liked EEAAO the first time I saw it. The second time I was less enthusiastic. Since then, and I know it’s unfair to the movie, its hyper-enthusiastic, cult-like fans have completely turned me off of it.

Guys, guys what is all this crap about their performances?

Among the leading ladies, who has the most friends? Which one will have more of their friends, their husband's friends, their parents and director's and producer's friends?

Or possibly - when two or more of them have a lot of friends, they split the vote and an unlikely winner emerges.

R42, I think it’s also about the narrative. Last year there were a lot of actresses in movies that no one loved, but three of them already had awards so they gave it to the one who actually made sense as an Oscar winner.

Plus, who’s going to really go for it, like Chastain Viola, obviously, but Blanchett seems to be going for it, too. She’s showing up to every film festival that her publicist can arrange to give her a prize.

Can always count on environmentalist Carbon Cate to jet around the world getting her ego stroked.

Actually, she has done very very well for someone with limited acting abilities.

I couldn’t get through EEAAO. About an hour of it was plenty for me. I was like, please, no more.

I would support the acting nominations though, especially Yeoh.

I liked "The Fabelmans", but I loved Michelle Williams more. I'm a big fan and she was great in a kooky role.

Even more deserving in my opinion is Dakota Johnson in the wonderful "Cha Cha Real Smooth" which charmed the socks off me. I had no idea she could really act. She deserves a lot of attention for her performance.

EEAAO was exhausting to watch and not in a particularly good way, but Yeoh (who should have won for Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon) was brilliant and will be hard to beat. She’s well loved and until recently underappreciated. She does things in the movie that no other actress in Hollywood can do. The current social movement is also on her side. The Academy will have a very difficult time rewarding an already two time awarded white actress in an ugly #metoo movie that’s a pretentious slog that has made no money and no one will see. Michelle Williams has a better narrative than Cate since she hasn’t been awarded either. Everyone else, good luck.

TÁ!R is so gripping and suspenseful that I couldn't take my eyes off of it!

Cate will win her third Oscar, and the director will also win one for his screenplay, while G will be seething with burning jealousy!

Why aren't pundits giving a bigger push for Zar Amir Ebrahimi for Holy Spider? She won the best actress award at Cannes but the press barely mentioned it, yet they made a huge deal about another actress winning a consolation prize from a sidebar section that nobody ever gave a shit about, even though she shared it with another actor who was also ignored by the press who never considered him an Oscar front-runner or even a contender like they did to the actress who shared the award with him.

Ebrahimi wouldn't win the Oscar, but the nomination would be her reward, and it could also bring more attention to what's happening right now to women in Iran and also Ebrahimi's own personal life story of surviving the Iranian regime. They have a real life survivor story in their hands but don't know how or don't want to use it... Such a wasted opportunity!

If there's any justice in the world, Vicky Kriep will win an Oscar for her mesmerizing performance in CORSAGE, in which she speaks 4 languages, rides a horse, and presents hairy labia. She is the next Meryl Streep, and she even looks like M!

R50 No way. One-note, overrated as hell and a rip-off of Sofia Coppola's Marie Antoinette. If it was an American or British film, it would get the same negative reception that Marie Antoinette had back when it was released, but critics are easily impressed by a foreign accent. People should really stop comparing every basic actress to Meryl Streep as it never works out! This one will be forgotten in 5-10 years or less like all the others who were compared to Streep. Besides, Streep was stunning when she was Vicky's age. This woman is almost 40, looks older than her age and barely speaks English. She won't get anywhere near Streep's level even with her dad funding all of her films with taxpayers' money.

R49 I'm sure it was just a coincidence that the only acting winner from this year's Cannes who received support from American critics and was considered a front-runner in May happened to be the only white person among them.

Florence Pugh's performance in The Wonder is what has impressed me most so far.

I think Vicky krieps is so ugly I wouldn't watch that shit in a million years

Cate is in another league. It will be a joke if she loses.

Not Michelle Williams again. She’s a void.

Barely speak English? R51 must be having a severe case of folate deficiency and untreated ear infection.

Why is riding a horse such an accomplishment?

"Williams....up against Viola in a black female fronted action movie .....They’re not going to give Cate a third over Michelle Yeoh, a deserving and incredible actress, for a lesbian metoo movie."

The whole pile of shit sounds insufferable. Oscar Gold worthy

[quote]Why is riding a horse such an accomplishment?

Because morbidly obese people like R53 and 68% of the American people are not able to do it.

Cate B doesn't bother to show tits or ass in her movie. Or a flash of moaningly getting her box eaten by one of her young students, or even finger-banging some flighty violinist! I think this prudishness will count against her in voting.

Ugh, Michelle Williams, she is such dire, unhappy actress, how she keeps coming up being nominated is a mystery. How would be very happy for Cate to have a third oscar, she deserves it. Of course, if Sigourney wins, much better. Had no idea she could even be considered.

Yeoh will win.

I agree R63. It doesn’t seem like much of a contest, really.

In a fair world Thandiwe Newton would be a show in for her superlative performance in God’s Country. Her performance left me breathless. To do so though she’d need to campaign, as hardly anyone saw the movie, and she seems to be too unwell right now to do so.

Tar was a bore. Cate was fine but doesn’t deserve another Oscar for it

[quote]In a fair world Thandiwe Newton would be a show in

Oh, dear.

PS. Thandiwe is unhinged.

Too many GOD movies this year. People might mix up Thandiwe's movie with Emily Watson's movie too.

R68 does Mescal get his cock or fartbox out in that movie?

But excuse me for butting in, R69, my fiancé only gets his intact cock out for me now.

Oh now Thandie is Thandiwe? Because suddenly she has balls during the overcorrection? She’s ridiculous.

I once saw Emily Watson in person while I was wandering around Covent Garden. She's over 6' which surprised me.

I assume Best Actress will have to go to whichever black actress has a halfway decent role in a halfway decent movie or Black Twitter (if it still exists then) will foment revolution.

Cate Blanchett should never again win any kind of award after her OTT attempt to be pretentious, telling DDL when she won "getting this honor from DDL just EXACERBATES the honor..." lol

[quote]Why is riding a horse such an accomplishment?

Well, it's probably not for you R58, you fuckin' whore.

Suck it, Julia @ R72!

Lol, Emily Watson is not six feet tall. She’s like 5’7” maybe 5’8” at most, which is tall for a woman, but not 6’.

Yes when we had the last Gosford Park thread one observation was how tall Emily was compared to the other actresses.

Dame Maggie should have won BSA for Gosford Park.

Her 1978 BSA Oscar should have gone to Geraldine Page, she was nominated for Lead but would have won in supporting.

Whoopi then wins the 1985 BA for The Color Purple.

Annette Bening then gets the 1990 Whoopi BSA for The Grifters instead

Apologies to F. Murray Abraham, but I would be fine living in a world where Geraldine Page never won an Oscar.

R57 English is almost an official language of her native country (over 80% of the population speaks English which is taught at school for kids) yet her English is pretty bad, not only her pronunciation but also her written English - quite often she writes stuff in English on social media full of bad grammar and that don't make any sense as a sentence, it's like she puts random words together using her phone's autocomplete feature. Stupid Americans were impressed that she speaks German in that film when German is actually one of the official languages of her country, her mother is German and she's been living in Germany for over 15 years, so speaking proper German is nothing more than her obligation. At least her German had to be better than her English and her French. She attended elite schools and is from a wealthy family (although she loves to lie and pretend she was poor until a few years ago), so there's no excuse to suck in her country's official languages that kids learn at school.

Maybe one of the ladies from Eighty for Brady will get in as Best Actress.

R79 - CATE - your OCD shines through your bipolar ranting. Medicate and let it go.

I finally saw Everything Everywhere All at Once today. Loved it. Yeoh has a very good chance to win BA, but I also think it’s got a chance to win Supporting Actress, but it’s a LOCK for Best Supporting Actor. Short Round!!

Variety November10 predictions.

1. Michelle Yeoh 2. Cate Blanchet 3. Michelle Williams 4. Daniel Deadwyler. 5. Viola Davis

Impossible! No Latina, no Brit = impossible.

R75 unlike you, I have actually held open the door of a boutique in Covent Garden for Emily Watson and discovered she is my height. 6'. And no, she didn't have heels on. I checked.

Did she say thank you?

Michelle winning is Wokeacademy Awards nonsense.

She gave me an enigmatic smile. On the same day - a Saturday - I saw Stephen Frears wandering around Covent Garden and Pedro Almodovar with some very short, Spanish-looking young woman.

Cate for the win.

[quote]She gave me an enigmatic smile.

She hit me in the head with a fondue pot.

Indiewire agrees with Variety.

Frontrunners: Cate Blanchett (“TÁR”) Viola Davis (“The Woman King”) Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”) Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”) Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

I hope Michelle wins an Oscar someday. Every time I've seen her in a movie, she never fails to impress.

Just watched Tar. It is very good and Cate has many excellent scenes, and the film is fucking good.

I don't think Jada has been banned. Will she be sporting hair like a Afro-Rapunzel this year alongside one of her kids in the audience to make a statement?

Is Viola being mentioned just so she won't be screaming bloody murder? Why would she be nominated for that nonsense movie?

Viola clearly feels like at best a filler nominee behind the obvious front runners, but her movie did decently well and she could get in on reputation. It makes sense that people still are still predicting her right now while waiting to see how the season plays out.

R92, Williams or Yeoh?

[quote][R92], Williams or Yeoh?

or Obama or Pfeiffer?

R85 didn't realize when she got old her body shrunk if she didn't take care of herself, while Emily Watson is still 5'8" because she treats herself quite well. And on low heels, she might be 5'9".

I want Michelle yeoh to win what a special actress she is though the movie looks shit. It's between she and the other Michelle, who is due.

Lol, R85, unlike YOU I’ve actually worked with her. She is not 6’. Period. I’m not going to argue with you about it.

Saw The Good House. Sigourney is in nearly every scene and she is magnificent. Has perhaps one Oscar-bait scene where she breaks down crying. The film is overlong but she deserves a nomination.

Sigourney can go the Glenn Close Oscarless route for the rest of her days - I just don’t care.

R101 = Are you Eddie Redmayne or Paul Mescal or Taron Egerton?

How nice of you to have dropped by this gay chat forum.

i don’t think the ‘she’s due’ hold any value anymore. Glenn was heavily favored a few years ago yet lost to Olivia - who many even thought should’ve been in the supporting category. so maybe likeability is a bigger factor.,Which G sorely lacks.

The best looking one will win.

R102, What number Saw, is Saw the Good Fight? I didn't know Weaver did horror?

Vi doesn’t get enough range in her movie to win.

Michelle is a dull and forgettable actress. A win for her would be about as memorable as Brie Larson's win.

I'm referring to Michelle Williams.

There are 2 Michelles here. Please, be specific!

Indie Spirit Awards Best Actress nominations - Cate, Mia Goth, Regina Hall, Aubrey Plaza, Andrea Riseborough, Michelle Yeoh.

It's Lead Best Performance at the Indie Spirit Awards, not Best Actress, R112. How dare you uphold the gender binary and misgender Dale Dickey, you monster! (Did I get that right, or was it contradictory? Does it even matter?) Anyway, here are all of the lead nominations, including the two guys who made it in.

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Dale Dickey, A Love Song

Mia Goth, Pearl

Regina Hall, Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Aubrey Plaza, Emily the Criminal

Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

Taylor Russell, Bones and All

Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Where is Florence Pugh for The Wonder? She was great in that.

She was great, but I can see why she's not getting any traction. The Wonder got overshadowed by a certain other movie Miss Flo had on the publicity circuit this year, and it doesn't seem to be a Netflix priority.

From that list, Paul Mescal should win every award for which he's nominated!.

And Aubrey Plaza, please. She's always playing herself in every movie/TV show.

By the way, Danielle Deadwyler was eligible for the ISAs, but they still snubbed Till. I know people were convinced she could win a while back, but I think it’s safe to say that’s not happening.

TILL feels like one long, winding, condescending lecture after another, and every thing is so clean and shiny in the movie. Not a single wrinkle on their shirts!

Cate Blanchett (“TÁR”) Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”) Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) are locks.

Cate is getting the critical raves; Williams is riding The Fabelmans wave of love right now and Yeoh has the beloved veteran finally getting her due momentum.

Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”) seems quite probable but not locked in...yet.

I think the 5th spot is very much up for grabs. Viola is in the mix but not a sure thing.

But who takes Viola’s spot? A black female headed action movie is a good narrative. Olivia Colman? There’s no way Margot Robbie gets in for Babylon the flop, though Gold Derby has her ahead of Viola in the fifth position.

If you want to read satire that isn't satire, read Clayton Davis's awards season articles on Variety. He is the site's key awards season writer and his agenda is as transparent as glass. All he wants to do is (not so stealthily) stump for any non-white performers. It's kind of gross because it is so anti-art.

In case anyone takes notice of Yahoo! News here are their top 10 predictions.

Cate Blanchett, TÁR Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans Danielle Deadwyler, Till Olivia Colman, Empire of Light Viola Davis, The Woman King Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway Mia Goth, Pearl Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande Ana de Armas, Blonde

Wasn't "Empire Of Light" more like "Empire of Shite"?

R114 That bitch already has one undeserved oscar nomination. What more do you want?

Spare me the Michelle Williams is overdue bullshit, because we're not having it this year.

You have actresses that have been working for thirty to forty years who do not have one oscar, or who have been nominated multiple times and been in many iconic movies who have yet to win the trophy. If we're not getting to them, then we're not having this discussion over some young tootsie who has given a string of mediocre performances at best.

Get in line behind your more worthy, older veteran actresses, and wait your fucking turn.

Michelle was pretty good as Gwen Verdon.

R126 she got the Emmy for that!

R125 What the fuck are you ranting about? What older actresses who haven't been awarded? Michelle Yeoh? Someone else?

Michelle Williams is 42. She's been a working actress for 25 years.

She's not exactly some young chippie.

Magot Robbie is the new Jennifer Lawrence. Nominated because the men want to fuck her. She's much better than Lawrence, but still.

Cate is not winning a third for an off-putting movie although it is likely the performance of the year, male or female. Lucky break for Williams, which is why I expect she moved to Lead. Yeoh's nomination and, hopefully, work she books off the publicity, is her reward.

Michelle Yeoh's movie is the only one that was successful. Her movie made more money than the rest of them combined. That will make a difference come Oscar time.

I saw Tár, and I don't think Blanchett will bag a third for that performance. I just don't feel it, but I have been wrong many times before. If it does win something major, I feel like Blanchett will be the first place it looks to. Though, Supporting Actress is so open right now, who knows who will win (I can't even rule out Nina Hoss, even though that seems unfathomable right now). Jamie Lee Curtis seems like the most "obvious" contender for Supporting Actress as she has a rich narrative, but her big hurdle is getting nominated for a "fun" performance (I loved her btw; just not sure the Academy will go for her). Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) is another dark horse. If Women Talking is winning screenplay, I'm not sure it can pull out another major win.

I hope Michelle Yeoh wins, but I don't know where the Academy will decide to give EEA@O statues. It could give it screenplay and call it a day. Or, it could shower it with several above-the-line wins.

As far as The Fabelmans, I haven't seen it. It sounds like a borderline lead/supporting role (I've heard both from several comments on the internet). It does seems like Best Actress would be the first place it goes to (valentine to Spielberg's mom), or Best Director.

I feel like Banshee of Inisherin will win something. Supporting Actor or Actor seem like the category(ies) that could happen, though Brendan Fraser might gun for the win in Best Actor. Gleeson might hold off Quan, even though Quan has a great narrative. Again, Everthing Everywhere All at Once can't win everything ... everywhere ... all at once... lol, etc.

My predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking

Best Original Screenplay: EEA@O

Best Director: Spielberg, The Fablemans

Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshee of Inisherin

After that ...

Best Picture: Fablemans or EEA@O Actress: Williams vs. Yeoh (or Blanchett or Danielle Deadwyler for Till) Actor: Fraser vs. Farrell (or Austin Butler for Elvis)

Best Supporting Actress: Depends on who is nominated, but it has to be one of Jessie Buckley, Claire Foy, Jamie Lee Curtis, Dolly De Leon, Hong Chau, or Nina Hoss. I think Buckley or Curtis seem like winners to me, if not De Leon as a dark horse.

Everything Everywhere All At Once is not only commercially a big hit but also a game changer. No movie in the recent times combines so many themes in one movie and leaves such an impact. It's genre bending iconic movie that will be counted as one of the greatest of all time movies alongside Mullholland Drive, Pulp Fiction, Dark Knight etc

Cate has two wins working against her....Michelle Williams is very good, but it's not her best role (it's more supporting) and she'll get nominated again. Michelle Yeoh gives an amazing performance in a very popular movie. It's hers.

R132, I think Gleeson has a great shot at Supporting Actor. He’s a respected veteran in a movie that Oscar voters are expected to like, he’s a quasi-lead, and based on his SNL hosting gig, the guy is going for it.

Supporting Actress really is messy. I think Women Talking is a lot weaker than people assume; it’s like She Said, but even less appealing to audiences. Williams really could have taken the category in a walk, and frankly, it’s not category fraud at all. There are long sequences where the movie completely ignores her.

Yeah, R135, I'd have Gleeson as the favourite. I haven't seen Inisherin yet, but you bring up the very points as to why he'll win, and his movie is TOP 3 IMO. He is the most likely acting winner atp out of all four categories.

Williams going lead was an interesting choice. Her being an Oscar winner wasn't as important as being perceived as a "leading lady." It reminds me of Bruce Dern in Nebraska. And we saw how that went. Quasi-lead/supporting performances rarely win Best Actress. But, they do happen. I mean, would Nicole Kidman winning over Renée Zellweger count? Virginia Woolf was arguably the "central" character of The Hours, but Kidman's screen-time isn't very high. And isn't the central conceit of The Fableman's the mother's impact on the boy (which would bode well in William's favour). And The Fableman's will be a "strong" film (possibly aiming for a BP win), which will help Williams further (on top of the fact that she has been nominated several times since 2006 and is considered by some to be "overdue").

I want Yeoh to win really bad. She has a lot going for her (strong film, her character drives the film, she is a cinema legend, Asian winning this category, etc). But it's not an emotionally "showy" performance, which will be the biggest drawback to her chances, as well as her movie possibly getting wins in many other categories.

I agree with you that Supporting Actress is messy. I'm hoping somehow Jamie Lee Curtis can take advantage of the situation. I'm doubtful, though, as I have a hard time seeing the Academy nominate her. But, I do see how SAG, the Globes, and BAFTA would get behind her.

R136, Kidman and Olivia Colman are probably the best examples of marginal performances winning lead for Actress, and Anthony Hopkins for Actor.

I actually think Jamie Lee Curtis has a better shot to win than Yeoh. She has a weak category, she can claim to be overdue (I know we hate that term), and she can count on her Hollywood connections. And the eccentricity of EEAAO is probably less of a debit for a supporting performance than a lead one.

R78 I love Geraldine Page suck my dick.

Michelle Williams I love her she must win this year.

I really disklike the Jamie Lee Curtis "going for it" narrative considering she's never been nominated and is frankly not much of an actress and thus a strike against nepotism. Even Melissa Leo had more dignity.

R138 is Rip Torn, posting from the afterlife.

So, R51, you were impressed with her hairy labia, though?

Jamie Lee Curtis is being too obvious with her campaign.

Also: she's annoying.

I hope her co-star Stephanie Hsu gets nominated over her.

Regardless, I think "Everything Everywhere All at Once" is going to do well at the Oscars. Definitely with nominations and probably with some wins.

It was cute, arty, different and it was a hit.

I think it's gonna be Everything Everywhere All at Once vs Fabelmans vs Banshees of Inersherin for the big Oscar love this year.

Surely EEA@O will win Best Costumes—the outfits worn by all the variations of Stephanie Hsu’s character were amazing.

The Fabelmans and Banshees of Inersherin will be forgotten movies in a few years, so why waste a Best Picture Oscar on them? Give it to a film that was both popular and a game-changer, like EEAAO.

The reason that people don't watch the Oscars anymore is because they give out awards to films that nobody has seen or cares about. There are plenty of worthy films and performances that will stand the test of time that should be rewarded instead. Giving a 3rd Oscars to Blanchett or Williams is a total waste.

[quote]he has a weak category, she can claim to be overdue (I know we hate that term)

I don't find the term annoying, I just find it's over applied.

You can definitely make a case that Jamie Lee is overdue for a nomination. She's been passed up several times before for strong. memorable performances. Plus, this is a bit of a departure for her. A character driven performance.

[quote]The Fabelmans and Banshees of Inersherin will be forgotten movies in a few years, so why waste a Best Picture Oscar on them? Give it to a film that was both popular and a game-changer, like EEAAO.

The Banshees of Inisherin is a better film than Everything Everywhere All at Once ten times over.

Yes, a Steven Spielberg movie (and one likely to snag lots of awards attention this year) is sure to be quickly forgotten.

Jesus Christ, it's Battle Royal. I don't know how this ridiculous "Battle Royale" thing started, but it's so stupidly pretentious and it makes no fucking sense in any language.

[quote] I don't know how this ridiculous "Battle Royale" thing started

It probably derived from this movie, Auntie.

Cate already has two. That's more than enough, innit? Oscar should have a Candy Bergen rule: A point after which no further nominations/awards for a given recipient should be considered. If you've already won 2-3 statues, take a powder.

Michelle Yeoh is a deliciously overlooked talent. She made her career on the other side of the Pacific from Hollywood, so it figures they wouldn't know her or recognize her. She's done as many action films as Jackie Chan, and did her own stunts, and has made movies in half a dozen languages, and also took on a Star Trek role without being a diva about it.

Actors like Cate Blanchett, Meryl Streep, Daniel Day Lewis, Anthony Hopkins, etc. put us in an awkward position. We want to applaud their legendary work, but we've already done that several times each. It robs the award of its stature when it's repeatedly given to the same established talents. It overshadows emerging performers, and reinforces the signal that that town no longer loves good storytelling or good filmmaking. If the same bunch of assholes win every year - or are nominated every year - then what's the point of even competing?

Agreed R151.

I'm aware there's a movie with that title, but the point is that the title is wrong. It should be "Battle Royal," and that phrase in its correct form existed before that movie came along and apparently was enough to cause everyone now to stupidly say "battle royale" from then on. The kicker is that it's probably just a mistranslation from the Japanese title. If you don't believe me, look it up.

English language is fluid, Auntie, you can't be a stick in the mud and get offended all the time just because words change meanings and forms.

"Battle royale" is not a case of "words changing meanings and forms," it's a case of a perfectly good phrase being spelled incorrectly (and mispronounced) just because it was spelled incorrectly as the mistranslation of the title of a novel and the subsequent movie version.

If the title of the Roberto Benigni film LA VITA E BELLA had been mistranslated as LIFE IS BEAUTY FULL, would everyone have stupidly started spelling "beautiful" that way?

Honestly Idc if Cate won 2, I cant stand Michelle Williams so I'm rooting for Cate or someone else. But I get the feeling that pretentious twat Michelle will get it.

I still think the only reason Brie Larson (who?) won an Oscar was because voters thought she'd actually been kidnapped.

It wasn't really that great of a performance, once she was released from captivity.

Tar is Blanchett's Bob Dylan performance, writ large. Much admired but not an award winner.

I like Nina Hoss but I don't see how giving a few side-eyed glances at Cate Blanchett adds up to a nomination.

Erm, can we just be clear that Steven Spielberg's mother was a whore who fucked her husband's best friend and then married him?

If a brown-skinned woman had done this, she'd definitely be in Supporting.

The thing about Brendan Gleeson winning is that everyone knows giving an Oscar to an Irish person is a complete waste. Just look at Brenda Fricker.

[quote]I actually think Jamie Lee Curtis has a better shot to win than Yeoh. She has a weak category, she can claim to be overdue

It's hard to claim you're overdue when your previous best chance at an Oscar nom was a remake of Freaky Friday

Jamie Lee is overdue for an Oscar the same way Jennifer Aniston is overdue for an Oscar.

Battle of the nobodies in films that no one will see!

Brendan Gleason is not beating the kid from Goonies who was in EEAAO. He’s basically a lock. No one is really talking about anyone else in that category.

This Jennifer Lawrence film, Causeway, is some pretty minor stuff. She’s good but the script isn’t up to much and quickly seems very contrived.

I think Lawrence has a better shot at a nomination than people assume, but if anyone gets a nomination for Causeway, it’ll be Brian Tyree Henry.

OCD aunties can't get over teeny-weeny word spelling variation. Get a life.

Let's get back to [bold]"Oscar Best Actress Battle Royale"[/bold] again.

I would love if Best Actress were down to Olivia Colman, Margot Robbie, Cate Blanchett, Danielle Deadwyler and Michelle Williams. Those have been my favourite female performances along with Jessie Buckley and Judith Ivey.

Judith Ivey??? What was she in? I’ve always liked her.

Jessie Buckley is great in everything I’ve seen her in.

Didn't Jessie Buckley wank her pussy in The Lost Daughter?

R169, who are these people?

[quote]Judith Ivey??? What was she in? I’ve always liked her.

Judith Ivey and Jessie Buckley are in WOMEN TALKING.

Fuck, give Florence Pugh a nomination!

Florence is a twatbag

[quote]OCD aunties can't get over teeny-weeny word spelling variation. Get a life.

A few more comments and then I'll stop beating this dead horse...

It's not just a variation in spelling, because people who say "battle royale" even when they're not talking about that movie (or the novel or the game) pronounce the second word as "roy-AL," in the French way, rather than "ROY-ul," which is the correct English pronunciation. The phrase "battle royale" is annoying because it pointlessly combines an English word with a French word for no good reason, as if someone were to say "fait accomplished" instead of "fait accompli." You can disagree with me, but FWIW, that's why I find "battle royale" so annoying -- and all the more so because, before the novel and the movie existed, people used to say "battle royal," which is correct.

[bold]Oscar Best Actress Battle Royale[/bold]

[quote]Olivia Colman, Margot Robbie, Cate Blanchett

Hope they all get nominated without having affirmative action shoved in their faces. Love love them!

Is Tilda Swinton's double-role in The Eternal Daughter able to throw her into the mix at this late date?

The Eternal Daughter is an A24 movie, and they have much bigger priorities than a late-breaking Tilda Swinton movie.

I would love to see Swinton nominated again, but it won't be for a Joanna Hogg movie.

The Oscar threads always make me miss Lynn Stairmaster and her lovably insane predictions.

Wonder if she still lurks here?

I think Lynn is still around, and if I remember correctly even weighed in on West Side Story last year. I hope she pops up this year. She's always entertaining.

Margot Robbie is an attractress rather than an actress, no matter how hard they've been trying to push her onto us. I'd much rather see someone great in her place, like Swinton. She's been getting pretty great reviews for her dual role in "The Eternal Daughter."

Could Tilda make it in as the token Brit?

Olivia Colman is more likely as the Brit bloc choice, and based on the reviews for Empire of Light, she’s not happening either (the problem is the movie and not her performance, but the lukewarm reception to the film makes it difficult for her).

So Emma Thompson not likely either?

Empire of Light got a rave by Variety.

For God's sake, Tara is going to be a flop. Cate is not winning.

Lynne was called out for her yearly stupidity earlier in the thread.

Tilda Swinton is our greatest trans actress of all time!

NYFCC name Blanchett best actress:

Didnt NYFCC had Gaga as BA last year? And she's not even got nominated at the Oscar.

Michelle Yeoh would actually make a lot of people happy.

Cate for playing a lez predator is not going to make anyone happy.

Tilda playing her own mother in The Eternal Daughter seems a mistake. Her hair and make-up are not convincing as an older woman so, unless that is intentional and there is a plot payoff, it seems she is just showboating and depriving an older actress of a part.

Wait, so Tilda Swinton isn't trans? She's just fucking weird?

She identifies as queer. She was quoted as saying, "I'm very clear that queer is actually, for me anyway, to do with sensibility. I always felt I was queer – I was just looking for my queer circus, and I found it. And having found it, it's my world." She further stated that her collaborations with several creative visionaries helped her to find a sense of familiar belonging. In a 2022 profile by The Guardian, she stated, "It just so happened I'd also been a queer kid – not in terms of my sexual life, just odd."

If Tilda or Winslet had played Tar they would have tits and fanny out at every opportunity

Golden Globe nominations:

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama - Cate Blanchett, “Tár”

Olivia Colman, “Empire of Light”

Viola Davis, “The Woman King”

Ana de Armas, “Blonde”

Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

Lesley Manville, “Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris”

Margot Robbie, “Babylon”

Anya Taylor-Joy, “The Menu”

Emma Thompson, “Good Luck To You, Leo Grande”

Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

No one cares about the awful irrelevant Golden Globes filled with creeps, gropers, and corrupt members.

They snubbed young Julia Roberts? The audacity!!!

I read "Todd Field's Tar" as "Totie Fields' Tar" and got momentarily excited.

They snubbed Danielle Deadwyler for Ana de Armas and Olivia Colman? That's surprising.

It's pretty obvious that Blanchett and Yeoh will win their respective categories, telling us nothing about who's ahead in the Oscar race.

Danielle Deadwyler’s Oscar prospects are probably…uhhh…dead.

People always massively overrated her chances. She's a virtual unknown in a movie that no one cares about with almost no chance at any other major nominations. She's not out there hustling for the win like Yeoh and Blanchett, and both her film and her performance feel like what Oscar voters would love, if it were still 1988. It's not what they go for now.

Ana De Armas was terrible in "Blonde," and the movie itself was terrible.

R203, who are you talking about? Deadwyler or de Armas?

Deadwyler, R205.

All Golden Globes nominees. The bitching will come from women's groups since no woman was nominated for Best Director. They are under the impressions that there needs to be quotas with the nominees. That's only effective if you're black.

No one knows or cares about Deadwyler. The same goes for her movie. If the Oscars nominate a token black, it'll be Viola.

I just watched HOLY SPIDER - it was very good movie, but a bit heavy-handed. If Asghar Farhadi were the director, he would have perfected it.

I watched Banshees of Insherin today and really liked it. Colin Farrell was fantastic—he looks older but still very handsome and plays dull witted well. I’d be fine it’s him winning.

Michelle Yeoh and Jamie Lee Curtis the frontrunners right now.

Stop lying, R211. Cate Blanchett is clearly the frontrunner.

Ugh, Cate Blanchette. I've never seen a movie she was in where I got lost in her character and forgot she was Cate Blanchette. On the other hand, Meryl Streep can do that. For instance, A Cry in the Dark. For me, anyway.

R213, you are entitled to your opinion, but appreciations may vary. And what is M doing here, when we are talking about [bold]Oscar Best Actress Battle Royale 2022[/bold]?

R213 A Cry in the Dark is the only movie where I felt Meryl was actually inhabiting a character and I didn't see Meryl. I've never had that issue with Cate.

My own preference is Cate for Best Actress, Colin Farrell for Best Actor (haven't seen The Whale yet so this could change), Jamie Lee Curtis for Best Supporting Actress, and Ke Huy Quan for Best Supporting Actor.

The supporting category is also very competitive this year, apparently.

I haven't heard much about the Supporting Actress category besides Jamie Lee Curtis is probably a shoe-in.

For Supporting Actor, it's mainly between Brendan Gleeson and Ke Huy Quan

Jamie Lee? That is a joke. It’s her worst performance. Grotesque and over the top and as messy as that shitty movie. What overrated crap. Asian lives mattering doesn’t mean you have to like that crap.

Another Best Supporting Actress contender - Dolly De Leon from Triangle of Sadness. I think she might get a shot since she ticks the ASIAN box.

Apparently all the Frauen in Women Talking will get a nod.

JLC is hungry for that Oscar nomination.

A “shoe-in,” R217?

Oh dear.

whores!

Just watched a screener of WOMEN TALKING last night.

My god, it is the most pretentious POS I've seen in a long time. I cannot believe the rave reviews it's getting. Has everyone completely lost their critical faculties?

I realize it's based on a book that' s somewhat based on real incidents, but on screen there is an utter phoniness about the beautifully lit world these women inhabit, all color-controlled and homespun in their matching print frocks, that distances their plight from a much-needed urgency and immediacy. And the poetic language in which they speak is hardly that of the education-deprived illiterates they say they are.

There's no real lead role but several that could be considered for Featured Actress if enough nominators are taken in.

Forgive me if the film has already been discussed above. Anyone else seen it? Am I over-reacting??

I can't bear that commercial for Empire of Light and Olivia Colmn's screeching. And I'm even a fan of hers.

Filipinos are not Asian Asian.

R224, I haven’t seen it, but your reaction doesn’t surprise me. From everything I’ve seen, Women Talking feels like the festival darling that lands with a thud once audiences see it.

It is probably the impact of COVID and streaming, but it seems like film and the Oscars are drifting into the land of nobodies in movies that no one wants to see. These are movies that no one will watch, often full of actors that no one has heard of. It would be one thing if they were actually good movies, but most of these movies on "top ten best" lists are bad to mediocre films.

And just as examples, I could not get through Nope, Banshees of Whatever, or Elvis, and they all will be nominated for awards.

[quote]I could not get through Nope, Banshees of Whatever

That sounds like a personal problem. Both are great films.

R224, I went to a SAG screening and thought a lot of it was very well directed and acted but i HATED the constant voice overs of the young girl. So fucking pretentious. And Polley didn’t do a good job of helping us figure out who was related to who.

Erm, I saw The Fablemans. IT SUCKS!!!

I couldn’t make it through Nope either. One hour in, Jordan Peele was still doing stupid needle drops. No thanks!

SHE SAID is a slog to sit through. Too much integrity and not enough high drama. I can't see any acting nominations except for maybe Jennifer Ehle but her rather short screen time may role may keep her from it

Since the Oscars are dead and what they call them now are.... something else, it really doesn't matter to anyone by the insiders who wins.

It's not fun because the camp is gone, the movies are worse than ever, the talent is chopped into slivers of special-interest-social-media warfare, and the show is so fucking boring and precious that they should just shove them up whoever's asses are the loosest.

Although Blanchett keeps hers tight despite the two Oscars she's already sat on.

I agree about She Said. Very poorly paced and directed and I loved Maria Schrader’s work on Unorthodox. I know Zoe Kazan is a good actress but her performance was way too understated and tentative. Jennifer Ehle really does deserve a Supporting Actress nomination and so does Samantha Morton. Certainly over that talent free hermaphrodite Jamie Lee Curtis.

As much as I prefer either of the Michelle to win, I think Cate is winning her #3. I think she has similar momentum with Frances when she won her #3.

Julia was nominated.

R236, Jessica Lange didn't win with Frances. She lost out to Sissy Spacek in Coal Miner's Daughter.

R238, R236 was talking about Frances McDormand in Nomadland.

Also, Lange in Frances lost to Meryl Streep in Sophie's Choice. Sissy Spacek beat Mary Tyler Moore in Ordinary People.

Nobody comes close to Cate’s towering performance. Nobody. If she doesn’t win the Oscar for Tár it will be a joke.

I want Yeoh to win, but Blanchett in Tár would be worth celebrating as well. It's just that Blanchett already has two Oscars, and Yeoh is a cinema legend. It would just be nice for Yeoh to win, and she would be a strong winner as well.

This feels like a race for sure. Yeoh might have an edge at SAG, because her film might be more loved. It may come down to BAFTA.

Michelle Williams may have miscalculated by not going supporting if it was an Oscar that she wanted to win. I cannot see The Fablemans winning anything major but director.

Danielle Deadwyler seems to be fighting for a nomination atp. I feel like those last two slots will be between Viola Davis, Olivia Colman, and Margot Robbie. Colman's movie flopping, but BAFTA could resurrect it. She is one of its strongest elements, and she may still be in her honeymoon period with the AMPAS.

Williams definitely miscalculated. In Supporting, she would have been undeniable.

And it’s not the 1950s anymore, when a Supporting Oscar is a lesser award that relegates actors or character parts. Blanchett and Davis are proof of that. Academy Award winner Michelle Williams is still a better sell than three-time Best Actress nominee Michelle Williams.

I wouldn’t count on BAFTA to save Colman. Even though she won for The Favourite, they snubbed her for both The Lost Daughter and The Father, and the latter in particular makes no sense.

BAFTA? Lol.

I just watched Empire of Light. I enjoyed it a lot more than all the critical reviews that panned it. I think the Academy might have enough goodwill towards Olivia Colman to nominate her. It's not as though she'll be the first actress to get a nomination for a good performance in a flop film.

It's a pity there isn't much hype for Sigourney Weaver in The Good House or Emma Thompson in Good Luck to You, Leo Grande.

I agree, R244. I wish Sigourney was in the mix but it appears she's going to be overlooked this year.

R245 I think the next time we'll see Sigourney at the Oscars is when they give her an honorary Oscar.

I think the Brit votes will go to Tár and Banshees of Inisherin, not Colman and Empire of Light.

Emma Thompson deserves an Oscar nod for bravery for that final shot of her in the film, confronting her naked 63 year old body.

Seriously, I don't know why this sweet small film hasn't gotten more attention. I fell in love with hottie Daryl McCormack.

The New York Times stole our heading:

Inside the Oscars’ Best-Actress Battle Royal

Forget the men: A banner crop of leading ladies, including Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett, rule the Oscars’ deepest and most dynamic race.

The Front-runners In the fictional world of “Tár,” the conniving conductor played by Cate Blanchett has been showered with an absurd amount of awards. By the end of this season, Blanchett herself may keep pace with her character. The two-time Oscar winner’s bravura performance — she learned German, orchestra conducting and piano for the role — has netted the most notable prizes so far: In addition to nominations from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, Independent Spirit Awards and Gotham Awards, Blanchett won the Volpi Cup for best actress at the Venice Film Festival and a pair of leading trophies from the New York Film Critics Circle and Los Angeles Film Critics Association. The last time Blanchett triumphed with the critics groups on both coasts, she was well on her way to winning her second Oscar, for “Blue Jasmine.” If she wins her third, the 53-year-old would be the youngest woman ever to reach that milestone. (Meryl Streep, Frances McDormand and Ingrid Bergman are the only other actresses to have won three Oscars each for their performances, while Katharine Hepburn holds the record with four.) But those laurels could also count against Blanchett in a race where her strongest competitor has never even been nominated and is angling for a historic win.

Michelle Yeoh came close to snagging a supporting-actress nomination for “Crazy Rich Asians” (2018), but this time, she’s undeniable: The 60-year-old’s leading role in “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” as an ordinary woman who becomes the multiverse’s last hope, should earn Yeoh her first Oscar nod. The role shows off everything Yeoh is capable of — including her athleticism, precise character work and sense of humor — and she has teared up in interviews while discussing how rarely a movie like that is offered to an Asian actress. In a recent awards round table, Yeoh told the other actresses, “I honestly look at all of you with such envy because you get an opportunity to try all the different roles, but we only get that opportunity maybe once in a long, long time.” Indeed, no Asian woman has ever won best actress, and after 94 ceremonies, the only winner of color in the category remains Halle Berry for “Monster’s Ball.”

Can Yeoh pull off a landmark victory? It may help that she has a more sympathetic character arc: While Blanchett’s Lydia Tár compels and confounds in equal measure, Yeoh’s Evelyn Wang learns to drop her guard and let love in. But the competition in this category is fierce, and Blanchett isn’t the only heavyweight she’ll be contending with.

For playing a character based on Steven Spielberg’s mother in “The Fabelmans,” Michelle Williams is likely to score her fifth Oscar nomination, which puts her behind Glenn Close and Amy Adams as the three living actresses who’ve been nominated the most times without having won. That gives Williams a potent “she’s due” narrative that could siphon votes from both Blanchett and Yeoh; it helps, too, that she gives her all to the part, playing a vivacious woman whose spirit couldn’t be contained by her marriage.

The “Till” star Danielle Deadwyler won the first lead-performance trophy of the season at last month’s Gotham Awards, and she’ll need that momentum to overcome striking snubs from the Independent Spirits and Golden Globes. Still, her emotionally precise performance as the mother of Emmett Till has Oscar-friendly heft, since voters often gravitate toward an actor playing a historical figure.

It’s rarer that Oscar voters make room for an action heroine in the best-actress category: Though Sigourney Weaver earned a nomination for “Aliens,” Charlize Theron found no traction for “Mad Max: Fury Road.” But there’s more to what Viola Davis does in “The Woman King” than just wielding a spear. Her fierce warrior is weary and her battle yells pack a cathartic punch. If the movie can make it into the best-picture lineup, Davis should be swept in.

Damien Chazelle’s debauched Hollywood dramedy “Babylon” has earned wildly mixed reviews, but the director helmed two Oscar-winning performances — Emma Stone in “La La Land” and J.K. Simmons in “Whiplash” — and that pedigree has pushed Margot Robbie into contention for her role as a fledgling actress convinced of her own star quality. Nominations for “I, Tonya” and “Bombshell” prove that voters like Robbie in ambitious-striver mode, though the movie is stuffed so full of characters that she can’t quite dominate the proceedings like some of her best-actress competition.

The Women Waiting in the Wings Can two Oscar favorites overcome muted streaming launches in a year when theatrical contenders reign supreme? “Good Luck to You, Leo Grande” hands Emma Thompson a sexually frank showcase role that had Oscar pundits buzzing at January’s Sundance Film Festival, but the film’s quiet June debut on Hulu drew fewer headlines. And despite a best-picture win this year for “CODA,” Apple TV+ still struggles to get all those “Ted Lasso” and “Severance” viewers to watch exclusive movies like “Causeway,” though the film features a strong, back-to-basics lead performance from Jennifer Lawrence.

At least “Blonde” managed a streaming debut that got people talking, though the punishing Netflix drama about Marilyn Monroe had some awfully loud detractors. Can its star, Ana de Armas, rise above those pans? She managed a Golden Globe nomination, at least, and Oscar voters love to single out a rising ingénue, but the film will prove a tough sit in a year with plenty of better-received options.

In the first hour of “Empire of Light,” Olivia Colman plays a movie-theater worker who opens herself up to an appealing romance, but in the second, the character goes off her meds and the movie goes off the rails. Even if those two halves don’t quite cohere, Colman definitely gets some big moments to play, and the actress has so quickly become an Oscar mainstay (over the last four years, she has been nominated three times and won once) that she should be considered a perennial option for the final five.

Rooney Mara is spirited and sensitive in “Women Talking,” but the studio’s decision to campaign her as a lead actress is tenuous: In this ensemble drama about conflicted Mennonite women, Mara has scarcely more screen time than Claire Foy or Jessie Buckley, who are being positioned as supporting-actress contenders. Then again, Mara is no stranger to category high jinks: Six years ago, she was nominated as a supporting actress for “Carol,” even though she was clearly playing that film’s protagonist.

The Dark-Horse Contenders If social media memes could be counted as accolades, Mia Goth would surely give Blanchett’s haul a run for her money: The young actress’s work in “Pearl,” in which she plays a farm girl who’d kill for stardom, has Twitter awash in Goth GIFs. Ti West’s technicolor horror drama isn’t the sort of thing that Oscar voters usually go for, but Goth is fearsomely committed, knocking out a tour de force, eight-minute monologue that’s topped only by a sustained closing shot of the actress smiling until she cries. At the very least, it’d make for one memorable Oscar clip.

I hope that as the membership of the academy grows ever more international, more powerhouse performances will be recognized in languages other than English. In Park Chan-wook’s South Korean noir “Decision to Leave,” Tang Wei is a terrific femme fatale, while Léa Seydoux delivers her finest work as a single mother in the French drama “One Fine Morning.” And Oscar voters who regret snubbing Vicky Krieps for “Phantom Thread” could make it up to her by checking out the royal drama “Corsage,” in which she plays Empress Elisabeth of Austria with beguiling irreverence.

Comedic actresses are too often undervalued by Oscar voters, but Aubrey Plaza spent 2022 proving she was capable of much more: Fans of her breakout performance in HBO’s “The White Lotus” should check out her dark, edgy work in the drama “Emily the Criminal,” which earned nominations from the Gothams and Indie Spirits. And “Nope,” which topped our critic A.O. Scott’s list of the best films of the year, boasts a charismatic star turn by Keke Palmer that recently earned a win from the New York Film Critics Circle, even if the group had to pretend she gave a supporting performance to get her out of the way of Blanchett’s leading win. Normally, I’d discourage that kind of category fraud, but in this crowded year, I sympathize with the desire to bend some rules.

Emily Watson in God's Creatures also gave a great performance which I haven't heard talked about so far.

I hate that articles keep mentioning Mia Goth, because it feels like the most desperate attempt yet to make horror happen in the Best Actress race. Toni Collette didn’t get a nomination, Lupita didn’t either in a weak year for the category, and now we’re supposed to pretend that a cult actress in a movie that isn’t elevated horror has a shot?

It’s like how Oscar pundits used to push mo-cap or voice performances. It’s not going to happen. Let it go.

Mia Goth is no Kathy Bates.

R254, Mara’s role is clearly the main protagonist in Women Talking.

I think it will go to Yeoh for a variety of reasons, but no one can convince me that Blanchett doesn't give the performance of the year.

Then again, everyone was convinced Chadwick and Glenn were going to win and the strongest performance prevailed so who knows.

I enjoy Cate in movies but she turns me off as a person. I hope she receives nothing.

Vicky Krieps could be creeping up.

"Krieps is wonderful to watch in motion, whether she’s in the saddle, crossing swords or just leaving a dinner. But she’s a virtuoso of stillness, and at times she brings to mind old Hollywood sphinxes like Garbo and Dietrich, whose inscrutable faces worked like wonderful screens on which you could project whatever fantasies you wanted. Yet Krieps is also a performer of the present moment, gesturally and otherwise, which is ideal for a character who’s caught between the old world and the new, and between the privileges that at once exalt and suffocate her."

R262 Vicky Krieps is ugly as hell and can't speak English. We won't have her, thank you.

R262 Vicky Krieps is ugly as hell and can't speak English. We won't have her, thank you.

She can speak English.

The five are basically set now. At this point there might be one surprise, but likely not.

No, they’re not, R266. This will be a highly unpredictable category in terms of who will be nominated. There will be a surprise and I think if will be Krieps.

[quote]the only winner of color in the category remains Halle Berry for “Monster’s Ball.”

HEY! Sophia Loren is brown!

Blanchett, Yeoh and Williams are definitely set. The last 2 spots are up for grabs.

No R267. 🤡

With the protests in Iran are still raging, the actress from Holy Spider might sneak in as a surprise.

Variety update December 22

Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh are neck and neck for best actress, there’s no other way to put it. They’re pulling away from their competition for their turns in “Tár” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” both of which are destined for best picture nominations.

Michelle Williams is the one that could “come up the middle” in a vote split type-of-scenario for her work in “The Fabelmans,” especially after four previous losses to her credit.

Danielle Deadwyler needs SAG to cement her spot in the lineup, but the actors guild has always been known to throw a curveball like Amy Adams (“Hillbilly Elegy”) or Helen Mirren (“Woman in Gold”). I’m beginning to suspect that “The White Lotus” buzz may help Aubrey Plaza, who’s having a moment in her career. She could land in the SAG lineup for work in “Emily the Criminal,” perhaps mimicking Sarah Silverman’s surprise nod for “I Smile Back” (2015). But it seems difficult to see Plaza would make the eventual nominee list.

The truth is that (presumed) the last spot is up for grabs and between bigger names. It could easily be two-time Oscar nominee Margot Robbie for her bombshell performance (no pun intended) in Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon,” which opens in theaters this Christmas weekend. Or it could be any of the three former Oscar winners — Olivia Colman (“Empire of Light”), Viola Davis (“The Woman King”) and Jennifer Lawrence (“Causeway”).

My predictions:

Cate Blanchett

Viola Davis

Danielle Deadwyler

Michelle Yeoh

5th slot: Olivia Coleman, Margot Robbie, Keke Palmer,

Michelle Williams

How is Margot Robbie on the shortlist? Didn’t she get terrible reviews for that movie?

Margot Robbie is not in the running. She will be getting Razzie noms for both Babylon and Amsterdam though.

Lol what on earth do you think Keke Palmer is getting nominated for?

People have tried pushing Keke Palmer for Nope. If she does get nominated for that movie, it'll be in Supporting.

But it's not happening there, either.

Keke is not in the latest Variety predictions top 5 for supporting actress which are: Angela Bassett, Jamie Lee Curtis, Kerry Condon, Jessie Buckley and Dolly De Leon.

Totie Fields was into classical music?

Keke, as much as I like her and think she WILL be a nominee at some point, is not even in the top twenty this year.

Happy New Year, all!

I’m loving the Twitter furore this weekend over Andrea Riseborough’s incredible performance in To Leslie. Maybe she can take Michelle Williams’ slot on the 24th?

Sigourney Weaver in The Good House

Will Viola be nominated for that movie that glorifies slave traders?

Take out Dolly and add in Stephanie Hsu.

Emma Thompson is superb in the very entertaining "Good Luck to You, Leo Grande". I'd love to see her nominated, as she should have been for perhaps her best performance ever in "Saving Mr. Banks" for which she was snubbed!

Amy Adams is hosting an online “conversation” with Andrea Riseborough and the director of To Leslie, Michael Morris.

It’s ON, bitches!

Michelle Yeoh is now the favorite to take home the Oscar. Recent wins: Golden Globe and National Board of Review. Suck it, Cate.

Cate also won the Golden Globe and since The National Board of Review named Top Gun Maverick as Best Film I think their choices are suspect.

Cate just won the Critics Choice Award. And she’ll probably win the SAG, despite the shit for taste AFTRA news people voting for Yeoh. Blanchett is way more respected than Yeoh and her performance is incomparable. And because of that she’ll win the damn Oscar, too. Yeoh should just feel frigging lucky she was in the mix-it will certainly never happen again.

I love Amy Adams’ enthusiasm for Andrea Riseborough and To Leslie.

NYT predictions.

The duel between the “Tár” star Cate Blanchett and the “Everything Everywhere” actress Michelle Yeoh will almost certainly be Oscar night’s most suspenseful contest. But in the meantime, who will keep the two of them company in this category?

Like Blanchett and Yeoh, Viola Davis of “The Woman King” was nominated by the Screen Actors Guild, the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards, so she should have a safe berth here. The other two slots are harder to call. Ana de Armas managed a SAG nomination for playing Marilyn Monroe in “Blonde,” but the movie is polarizing. And as Oscar voting began, a raft of famous names suddenly took to social media to tout Andrea Riseborough’s performance as a struggling alcoholic in “To Leslie,” though it’s unclear whether that grass-roots campaign will move the underseen indie to the front of voters’ queues.

I think one of the remaining slots will go to the “Till” star Danielle Deadwyler, who won the Gotham Award for her lead performance, a victory tempered by surprise snubs from the Independent Spirit Awards and Golden Globes. Finally, reserve a spot for the “Fabelmans” star Michelle Williams: Though SAG omitted her, I think that headline-making snub will actually remind people to vote for her, as it did last year with Kristen Stewart for “Spencer.”

Michelle Williams was just snubbed again at the BAFTAs.

Will this go down in history as one of the worst decisions ever to put her in lead when a supporting win was a sure thing?

Yes, it was an incredibly stupid decision. Supporting Actress is so weak that they might just give it to a performance from a Marvel movie.

And I don't even think it would help if she pivoted to a Supporting campaign now. It would feel too desperate.

Cate pretends she's above it all. Competition is so patriarchal. Why can't we women just get along?

Then withdraw your name from consideration.

R294 = Katherine Heigl

[quote]And I don't even think it would help if she pivoted to a Supporting campaign now. It would feel too desperate.

Perhaps someone in her camp realized the mistake because according to Feinberg's latest forecast, Michelle Williams is on the shortlist for supporting.

But the NYT Projectionist believes Angela Bassett has Supporting. All hail the queen: Angela Bassett has already won televised trophies at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards for playing a grief-stricken monarch in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” Though comic-book actors usually have to don Joker greasepaint if they want Oscar voters to pay attention, it’s well past time for Bassett to earn her second Oscar nomination, since her first came all the way back in 1994 for “What’s Love Got to Do With It.” The 64-year-old Bassett has been too good for too long, and the academy would err by curtailing her moment.

You just know Jamie Lee Curtis is having night sweats and vaginal dryness waiting for Tuesday morning!

Angela is far more than deserving of the Oscar for Supporting. It’s too late for Michelle Williams to pivot really, although I’m wondering if AMPAS is going to put her there anyway.

I adored Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin but I’m still voting for Bassett on my SAG ballot.

Angela is easily one of the most under appreciated actors in a long time. Nice to see her nomination and I hope she wins, though it shouldn’t be for that Wakanda dreck. It would be a career win.

R298, has JLC retuned the vagina she borrowed yet?

Too close to call says Variety.

Cate will win. It's a done deal

Yep. Yeoh doesn’t stand a chance.

They're gonna give it to Cate because the Academy loves really awful nasty lead characters.

^ If that were true Isabelle would have won for Elle and not Emma Stone for La La Land.

R307, get real. Very few people saw Elle not just because it had subtitles but also because there’s an extremely disturbing rape sequence in the first reel.

Latest odds - Australian actress Cate Blanchett is the current favourite for the award after her starring role in TÁR..

I wonder how many Academy voters will make it to the end of Tar or EEAAO.

Tar is a masterpiece.

R311 = Cate

Tar is a ridiculous movie

Tár was absorbing but not exactly entertaining

If it was a weak year, I'd be all for giving this to Blanchett and making her a 3x winner.

But Michelle Yeoh is sitting RIGHT THERE.

I hope they do the right thing and give it to Michelle Yeoh. I would be a much more impactful win.

I'm fine with Tar going home empty handed. It's a film that while deserving of recognition, doesn't really need awards. Its reputation was brandished upon it before it was even seen.

[quote] Yeoh is most likely to win since the Oscars have been on a trend of desperately trying to prove that they're not racists and care about non-white people in the past few years.

No, that's why Bassett will win.

When is the shitshow? I know I could look it up, but I admit I don't care that much.

Yeoh isn't overdue for shit. Now, if it was Gong Li...

I haven't seen any of the nominated movies. But if I were to vote amongst the front-runners based on likeability, I willl respectully abstain.

Blanchett in Tar>Yeoh in EEAAO

Thank god you’re not a member of the Academy, R315. Giving it to Michelle Yeoh would be “doing the right thing” because it would be “impactful”? How about voting for the one who you thought gave the most powerful, impactful performance? Cate Blanchett knocks all her competitors out of the water in terms of her performance except for Andrea Riseborough. Riseborough deserves the Oscar over Yeoh, too.

Blanchett won the BAFTA and there is a lot of crossover BAFTA/Oscar voters.

Well I think there's no question this goes to Michelle Yeoh.

Oh dear, all the Cate stans really blew it in this thread, didn’t they. 🤣🤣🤣☠️☠️