It's widely believed that Judy Holliday won the Oscar in 1950 because voters were split between Bette and Gloria. Also Bette and Anne Baxter. If someone other than Judy Holliday had starred in Born Yesterday, would that actress still have won or would Bette or Gloria have the chance to swoop in and win?
I mention Rita Hayworth because Born Yesterday was intended as a star vehicle for her but she refused since she was in retirement after marrying Prince Aly Khan. Jean Arthur was meant to originate the role on stage but because of her extreme neuroses and stage fright, she left the show just a few days before it was meant to premiere. Judy Holliday ended up replacing her last minute. Judy only got the film role because nobody else was considered suitable for it after Rita refused, but Jean Arthur was an established enough film star at the time that if she had been interested she likely could have taken it instead.
Would Jean or Rita have won an Oscar for Born Yesterday the way Judy did, or would Bette or Gloria manage to win?