Ultimately, how long are these stay at home orders sustainable?

New York State has had a third of the Covid 19 cases in the country. Montana has had almost none.

It’s going to depend on the state.

OP, in these extremely politically charged times, the government cant let the chips fall where they may anymore. Everything must be extremely calculated because fingers will be pointed.

If everyone goes back to work and people get sick and die, there will be class action litigation across the nation. Companies and organizations also have to mitigate their risks or their own employees will send them under.

R2 its called Scold Fascism and we are living it right now, even before COVID19

excuse me Woke Scold Fascism

Or conversely, OP, adopt a fair and equitable society so that people can stay in lockdown and nobody extra need die.

That's not a wild idea in most Western democracies. Only the backward ones.

OP nobody getting $600 a week to sit on their asses wants to return to their minimum wage jobs right now. Come July, it will be panic mode when the freebies dry up. Yes I am part of the problem too, I still have a job and I happily took my $1,200 and paid off debt. I’d happily take more if offered.

Thanks R3/R4, I had no idea not wanting people to die needlessly made me a fascist.

Um, r5, the fair and equitable society won't happen by this summer or year or possibly ever. So you're going to need a plan B, just for the sake of reality.

Anyone posting “woke” “scold” is a Trumper. Just block and ignore. They want you to die for your $8.50 an hour. They don’t like that the world is changing and they can’t do a damned thing about it.

OP - nobody said the lockdown would stop the virus. Didn't get that memo? It was just to slow the infection rate. Some other countries have put into place public safety measures to open up. Some of those have cut the spread way down, almost to nothing. The USA - hasn't managed a robust response. Basically fucked. Fortunately 98% of people will not die. Maybe 99%. That will still be a lot of death.

The number of Americans expected to die from the coronavirus by the end of June will nearly double White House estimates circulated as recently as this week for total deaths through the course of the entire outbreak, according to a new analysis from the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

Even under a best-case scenario in terms of loss-of-life, which would mean states don't reopen at all until June 30, an estimated 117,000 people will die from the disease.

Under a less realistic scenario in which state economies fully reopened on May 1, an additional 233,000 deaths would be recorded just by the end of June, even if individuals continued practicing social distancing. By June 30, roughly 350,000 Americans would have died from the outbreak – close to the number of Americans who died during World War II.

We definitely need to get on with our lives. This lockdown has gone on long enough. We just have to accept that a few people will die and move on.

Watch out R12 here comes R9

R9 The Wicked Woke Scold of the West

R5 Paying people not to work is not "a fair society," not to mention that you're promising people money they'll never get. The government can't support 1/4 of the workforce.

If it’s mostly the old, poor and minority casualties, them open up ASAP.

Making American Young White and Obese Again

Mark Cuban:

lain to me why in the midst of 50m people unemployed or under-employed, the gov isn’t hiring and training MILLIONS to do Tracking/Tracing, Caring/Supporting at risk populations and sanitization work? And now is the time to train/pay stay at home parents/caregivers as well.

Those of you who insist we need to reopen everything right away to save the economy, is your argument that we should force people to return to their jobs or that we should allow them to, if they so desire? I understand that some people may want to return to their jobs tomorrow, even if it kills them, because they desperately need the money. If they want to do that and risk death, I guess that's their choice. But some of us want to continue to work from home (or not work at all) until we feel truly safe returning to our workplace. Do we also get to make that choice? (If so, what happens if only a handful of employees want to return but most don't?) Or do you think that our employers should force all of us to go back to our workplaces and fire us if we don't?

Also, how do you calculate the jobs vs. lives math? For example, how many people are you willing to let die in order to save 1 million jobs? Let's see some hard, cold numbers.

R19 my employer can fire me if they force me back to the office right now. I can do my job just fine at home.

The vaaaast majority of people can't work from home, that's a fact. So for those that can work from home, congrats, but your the minority. Something is going to have to give, or many of the unemployed iffy Trumpsters will become full blown supporters if he touts some Get America Working Again slogan or the like.

R19 most people(given truth serum) would say at least one. That's a lot of jobs

[quote]OP nobody getting $600 a week to sit on their asses wants to return to their minimum wage jobs right now

I also think the government and businesses are underestimating how many people will actually return to work. Even before all of this, the workforce had shrunk down significantly. A lot of people will be leaving the workforce indefinitely, especially if stimulus payments continue. There are a lot of working poor who are boomer age and after this they will be hanging it up.

Here you go OP.

[quote]people can stay in lockdown and nobody extra need die.

Until we start killing ourselves because of how much lockdown sucks. (Mind you, I'm doing it. It seems like the right thing to do. But I fucking HATE it.)

As long as my estate supports it!

[quote] Until we start killing ourselves because of how much lockdown sucks. (Mind you, I'm doing it. It seems like the right thing to do. But I fucking HATE it.)

Nobody said a global pandemic would be fun.

Hey look at the bright side. If you survive this you’ll have great stories to tell the young gaylings in the future.

Probably not long. The thing is everyone will probably be wearing masks for a while...except the Trumpsters don't want to do that either. They are dangerous

It's the actual fascists in government who want to return to business as usual since they value money above all else. If you want to go out and mingle, go ahead.

I only hear one or two voices here paying attention.

SHELTER IN PLACE WAS PUT IN PLACE TO PREVENT OVERLOADING HOSPITALS. NOT PROTECT THE PUBLIC.

YOU WILL EVENTUALLY BE EXPOSED AND YOU MAY DIE.

THE END

[quote] but your the minority.

Oh, dear!

All of these “quick fix”, irrational, knee jerk reactions from government are absurd. $3 trillion and we haven’t fixed anything. Can’t even get testing - which is the one thing that would allow the economy/jobs to start functioning again.

We slapped a trillion dollar band aid that was allocated inequitably and irrationally. We needed a systemic fix for the masses of people who will be unemployed long term by the natural cycle of capitalism. Instead the government paid payroll for everyone for 2 months - giving Republican states 150% of their former salaries and blue states 50% of their former salaries. And who pays the taxes for that - blue states.

OP seems like a Trumper. Or Amash "libertarian". What, me follow rules? To the extent that you can trust your state government (and local government) to provide and act on scientific information, you should follow the rules. Because if your local medical infrastructure gets overwhelmed, you or family members may die. I realize for people like you who think money is more important than life, you'll go for the bucks every time.

That does not mean you cannot ask for assistance or become creative on how you will operate. Or hold your governmental officials responsible for helping people to remain at home. But you are responsible if you endanger the lives of others.

To me, the most logical thing would be to de-isolating by age. Start with those under 30 or 40 since mortality in these age groups is lowest, then move forward by a decade every few months. That brings accusations of bias on both sides, so it could be a strong recommendation instead of a mandate.

When can we start the Palinsquads? I'm ready.

Where's our next stimulus check? One isn't enough...

It's really a no win, damned if you do damed if you don't situation. Open things up, people risk getting sick and face an uncertain future, keep things shut until further notice, people and governments face real financial devastation, along with the consequences like potential loss of their home, health insurance, hunger and and uncertain future.

All you deficit hawk-types know the government can literally print money, right? We can afford to pay people not to work, we just don’t have the political will to do so.

R12 and otherS. Get off you mental asses, go on line and do a little reading on how the use of public health epidemiological intervention can and does halt a pandemic- in China, S Korea, Taiwan, Germany and even now Italy. We do not have to let people die. Please don’t get your information from FOX News and Trumps pressers.

Until everyone wears a mask in public there is enough testing for everyone and businesses put some sort of safe guards in place to protect their customers and employees.

But people are fucking selfish assholes, business owners don't want to pay out any extra $ for safety and there aren't enough tests nor does there look to be enough tests.

So people will go back too early and in two weeks, we'll be right back where we are now. In quarantine.

Oy - the troll who keeps saying “you must be a Trumper” to any comment he disagrees with is getting tiresome. He has been all over lately. That level of simplistic argument is no better than the “own the liberals” Deplorable arguments.

The streak of obstreperousness that seems to be a part of American DNA will be its downfall. The entire world is doing all it can to prevent the spread but the American response is only "NO-ONE'S GONNA TELL ME WHAT TO DO!"

R41 is right. My partner and I live in a Red state and the population has gone overnight to supporting the governor's ( ( also Red) lockdown to bitching and moaning about why they can't get their nails done, drink in bars, and conspiracy theories about individuals who choose to wear masks in public. It's insane. We already know things will be opening back up in two weeks, but what's even scarier is that the Redneck crowd is already trying to intimidate the rest of us from following Public Health measures because " Fauci's part of the Deep State". It's like watching a slow moving train moving right towards you and you can't do a damn thing. Of course my partner and I will continue to follow social distancing etc, but in the back of our minds we're secretly wondering if we're going to be witnessing some kind of holocaust after everything opens back up.

I'm fortunate enough to be retired and not have to go out as long as I can get things delivered. Of course at some point I might have to go to the doctor or a dentist, but unless there's an actual urgent need, I can pretty much stay at home indefinitely. While it's not ideal, the alternative is much scarier. I'm not leaving unless I absolutely have to. I can survive without a haircut or going out to a movie or to eat.

Those saying that it's no big deal, a few people are going to die and they're old/sick/black so it doesn't matter, are demonstrating a complete failure to understand the obstacle we face as a nation, and on a more broad scale, world. America has been extraordinarily lucky, going so long without any kind of public health crisis; but then again, we've had competent leadership (hard to believe that the present administration is so bad, it makes the Bush administration look competent), scientists and medical professionals working at the highest levels of government with duties assigned and designed to prevent exactly what's happened, and, frankly, the grace of God. All of that went out the window when the deplorables, aided by Putin (whose worldwide goal, in case you can't see it, is to destroy liberal democracies) and the Clinton-hating FBI, crammed a charlatan/buffoon down out throats. We have, and shall continue, to pay for it.

We've gone, in 50 years, from being the nation that put a man on the moon, to a nation that can't oust a clearly corrupt, immoral, lying and criminal, questionably-elected president. After WWII, we spent money on things like science, infrastructure, and education. After the Iraq war, we spend money on propping up a failing military-industrial complex, tax cuts for the ultra-wealthy, and interest on the ballooning debt.

We have lost our way.

So, go back to work, deplorables. Don't do the basic things proven to minimize risk of transmission, regardless of whom the action protects. Deny science. Ignore the common good. Go to church. Congregate. Get sick, and die quickly.

[quote] de-isolating by age. Start with those under 30 or 40 since mortality in these age groups is lowest, then move forward by a decade every few months

How could you possibly enforce this? Let's say you open everything up to those under 40. Are you going to have police in public places "carding" everyone to make sure nobody over 40 shows up? Do you think that 41 and 42-year-olds are going to sit patiently and wait another month or two until it's their turn to stop isolating? The protests will only grow louder: "My neighbor is 39 and he can go to a movie and get his hair cut! I'm 41 and just as healthy as he is, and I have to wait 2 more months! This is unfair!"

Here in Atlanta it’s an absolutely beautiful day out, and apparently Piedmont Park is packed. I have a yard so I can stay home and still be outdoors, so I’m aware of my privilege but...Why can’t all those people just have gone for a walk in their neighborhood?

People seem to be interested in pretending that the shelter in place never happened.

[quote], and let the chips fall where they may.

you're an ignorant cunt

Amazing how many people are okay with other people dying just because they're bored at home.

Thank you R31

"Flatten the curve" wasn't even six weeks ago and y'all act like we were promised a cure. You will be exposed to this virus, the point was to buy time so our medical system could adapt and prepare to treat it.

That’s right R48. Most people vehemently resist change. We’ll change is here.

Until we know more about how this virus works and medical science attempts a rescue, coexisting with COVID-19 is like living in a village surrounded by snipers in the hills. If you go out to do normal things you risk getting shot.

The elderly move slowly so the snipers easily pick them off. Younger people can move more quickly, they can zig zag, so the snipers only blow some of them away. Children are small targets, they seldom get hit.

I ask you “liberators” what does going to work, to the shore, to sporting events look like in that environment? In general you don’t. You scrape by on what you can.

Sure, we all desperately want a return to normalcy. But until the Calvary arrives (if they do), the new normal means you have to make unpleasant changes.

Sacremento. trump tells them to jump and so they jump.

[quote] But until the Calvary arrives (if they do), the new normal means you have to make unpleasant changes.

This is the crux of the problem. Americans, in general, don't do unpleasant changes. We're just fine with a global pandemic, and we're just fine with 70,000 dead Americans, as long as it doesn't inconvenience our daily lives very much. But as soon as we realize we might have to go a few months without getting a haircut or eating out in a restaurant, we freak out.

cavalry.

R16, I sure hope you get it and die from it, better yet, if you're a young person I hope you're one of them that will get it, have a stroke and be severely disabled for the rest of your life, maybe needing to spend it in a nursing home, with all those old and disabled people you want to die. I might be the only one to say it, but I'll bet there are many people here and in your actual life wishing bad, bad things to happen to you. I hope there is something out there listening to those hopes and wishes.

^^ That is a LOT of drama over an anonymous post!

^^ I know, it's really ugly, isn't it? There are some really rabid, scary people on here at the moment.

Thank YOU R51 I don’t know why the pearl clutching and tsk tsking continues on hear.

I don’t really agree with the protection policies. I don’t know that they are effective. But I follow them. I do it because I don’t want to spit in the face of people who are trying to do something.

Unlike 911, this moment that should be unifying is dividing us. Trump? He is not our problem. He is just an opportunist.

At the beginning of this century, republicans and democrats still had dinners together in DC for no other reason than socializing. I had true conservative friends who could debate issues without either side going off the rails or resorting to name calling.

Of course SM and the internet in general have allowed people to indulge their baser selves. But I think the real person who recognized the resentment of the simpletons was Limbaugh. And now the real conservatives cower at the feet of the simpletons. All while the liberals can’t keep out of the mud with the pigs.

I hope karma is in full force with anyone who wishes someone else to die and to die horribly because of their views.

[quote]He is not our problem. He is just an opportunist

I disagree. To a very large extent he has stoked those flames as well as created new division that had not been there before. In my opinion anyway.

The unrest, no matter who is fanning it, looks like India, Central Africa, and Venezuela. The bananafication of the world's oldest democracy accelerates.

[quote] and tsk tsking continues on hear.

Well said, R46. Bravo.

It's not often that I'm glad I'm old, but I certainly would rather be my age (67) than someone in their 20s or 30s who has their whole life ahead of them with all of this uncertainty and worry.

r53 Meanwhile, two of Sacramento's neighboring counties have decided to reopen in defiance of the governor's orders. (Another one, Modoc Co. with a tiny population, opened earlier.)

R64, I see your point but I don’t think I agree.

The young ones today have virtually no problems with this virus, notwithstanding a very, very small segment who are usually trumpeted by the media. Percentage-wise, it’s very small.

What you had to worry about in your 30s was much worse.

Is this the new coronavirus thread or is there a part 39 somewhere? Part 38 was paywalled

It’s amazing how people are all “omg we have to save lives! Lives over money!” and proceed to wish death on anyone who disagrees with them.

I can't blame them with all the smug "We have to open up! It's just the old, sick and black people who are going to die. Who gives a fuck?" comments on here. You see people not giving a shit if you live or die enough times and you get twitchy.

It wasn't a band aid r33. It did its job by giving corporations free money for essentially doing nothing. And now after they took millions, these same corporations and rich folk are opening their shops back up for the silly masses to risk their lives to enrich them even more! How sad is that?

Why do we have to be subjected to these capitalist pig fucking Trumpies whining about how they’re criticized.? Oh waaahhh, I’m an asshole who wants people to die for the almighty dollar, but I have protected opposing views.

NO, YOU DON’T. And yeah, you first you fucking Trumpkin libertarian assholes. Please, go die, so we don’t have to deal with your fucking ilk here anymore.

You don’t like it?

LEAVE.

Will the graft of this ever be investigated or is it water under the bridge.

They should have given all the money in direct payment to people, not corporations.

[quote] Amazing how many people are okay with other people dying just because they're bored at home.

They're Trumpian Republicans. The sociopathy runs deep within them.

Yet when it happens in NYC, the whole tone of the thread changes.

R11 "Under a less realistic scenario in which state economies fully reopened on May 1, an additional 233,000 deaths would be recorded just by the end of June, even if individuals continued practicing social distancing. By June 30, roughly 350,000 Americans would have died from the outbreak .

Y'all ain't nobody's gonna be RECORDED as dying from The Chinese Flu ever again.

OP

When violence increases dramatically due to job losses, the cops will be overwhelmed.

[quote]It’s amazing how people are all “omg we have to save lives! Lives over money!” and proceed to wish death on anyone who disagrees with them.

True.

Also they don't seem to understand many of the people in favor of reopening are small business owners with lots to lose.

The lockdown is helping big corporations most of all . In my town the Walmart is open. They've been open all through this.

I can go there and buy clothing, hardware, toys, garden supplies...but the small shop owners in my town who sell those things are closed. Is that fair?

There were only one or two posts above on testing. Testing is a necessity before reopening the economy safely. If they find that most of all of us have been exposed already, then those people might be able to go back to work.

Also, we need to know if people who get it develop immunity or not. Thats critical.

Until we have data from the above, we should stay shut down.

R77 that was complete bullshit giveaway to the big chains. In Europe the national chains that sell food had to seal off all their non-food sections, flowers, housewares, electronics, clothes. etc.

[quote]There were only one or two posts above on testing. Testing is a necessity before reopening the economy safely. If they find that most of all of us have been exposed already, then those people might be able to go back to work.

I personally know no one in Italy who has been tested. Factories reopen tomorrow.

This business about testing everyone before reopening is Impractical. It's not going to happen.

Italy has been hit so hard it’s not a good example to follow.

Testing has not been a priority, but it should be. And it’s not just my thoughts, it’s the CDC recommendation.

R81 No country is testing everyone before reopening. Not happening.

Besides: what does testing prove? I test today and I'm negative. Tomorrow I'm infected and go about my business .

We can't test millions of people everyday.

The testing thing is a ruse. Testing only means so much.

My niece doesn't get the part about wearing a mask to protect others, much less herself. She is married with two children and stays at home with help from her husband who now works mostly from home. She was complaining that she would be required to wear a mask while shopping at Costco. Actually, the word livid would better describe her attitude. But she wants to protect her children. She can easily afford to have food and whatever else delivered. She is a college graduate so she does have the ability to understand complex ideas, I would assume. Oh, I should add she watches a lot of FOX News.

What is so difficult about staying inside, and if you have to go outside you wear a mask? And only going out in public only when you must.

Wrong, R82. That is what I hear on TV, and it is incredibly wrong, for this reason:

Assume they learn that you can’t get reinfected once recovered. If they can test someone to determined if they’ve been infected and recovered, and are no longer contagious, then that person can go back to normal living. No more gloves or masks, or disinfecting door knobs and wiping down the mail. They can go out, anywhere!

As for the negative people, you are right about them. They may be infected anytime, but what percent of the population is this? Will heard immunity help them!

[quote]Assume they learn that you can’t get reinfected once recovered.

Assume all you want.

For now we do not know that you can’t get reinfected once recovered. And societies are not going to wait to find out before reopening.

I don't really see the problem of wishing harm on others. I've had arguments about that, but to me it's a natural emotion. When someone is hurting you so much that you wish they would just end, that's just an emotion. You know you aren't actually hurting that problem. It's like sticks and stones vs. words. I don't believe in bad vibes or anything, obviously.

[quote] Go to church. Congregate. Get sick, and die quickly.

But they won’t. Their hospitals won’t get overwhelmed. They have enough beds because their states are sparsely populated & no one wants to move there - they can afford to have enough hospitals. In the NY metro area, land is so expensive they tear down hospitals to put up condos. They haven’t built new hospitals in years. They’re building gigantic, very expensive “assisted living” places in the densely populated burbs - not hospitals. They’re preparing for the decline & death of the boomers, not the lives of the younger generations.

These red states aren’t densely populated. They don’t have crowded public transport. And by the time it gets to them, treatment will be better. There will be antivirals, there will be convalescent plasma. They may decide to use steroids and find it’s helpful against the virus, not harmful. They’re treating it like pneumonia in the NY hospitals - but it’s not pneumonia.

Red state people will have it better than the NY metro area & they know it. People will get the virus but not nearly at the percentage of infections in NY. Blacks & Latinos are suffering more - probably because they have no access to decent health care. Many of them can’t afford the blood pressure, diabetes & asthma medications they need, so they’ve had years of untreated co-morbidities.

Appalachia may suffer, but nobody cares about them. Those Michigan whites parading around in their SUVs have health insurance. They’re happy if it kills minorities. They think it’s the hand of their god. Like AIDS, they wont be as badly affected. Some old people will die and they’ll say that jesus called them back home.

[quote§) R85: For now we do not know that you can’t get reinfected once recovered. And societies are not going to wait to find out before reopening.

They are studying thus now. It makes a big difference as to how to address things, however this turns out, and Societies can be persuaded to do the right thing. Not by Trump, but maybe some better by Governors.

Until we have massive testing/processing (which we do not), massive contact tracing capabilities (which we do not), and effective enough treatments so that half the people put on ventilators aren't dying - we're not going to re-open jack shit.

They can try, they will fail. It's stupid to do it at this level of idiotic unpreparedness.

Take the plunge? Fuck you, you plunge.

We'll wait over here.

Pierre, your trust fund is threatened if the companies no longer pay dividends.

Lockdown USA is creating mass poverty, nimrod!

[quote]Until we have massive testing/processing (which we do not), massive contact tracing capabilities (which we do not), and effective enough treatments so that half the people put on ventilators aren't dying - we're not going to re-open jack shit.

Keep dreaming. Not going to happen. Not in the US or anywhere else among western counties.

You’re not going to keep young people indoors in warm weather. You can give them all the dirty looks you want & curse them out online, they don’t care. They’re hardly at risk. To them, it’s the flu. They’re going to go to the beach, the gym & to their dealers. Especially if there’s no work. They’ll have plenty of time to party. Police can’t arrest hundreds of people & cram them into police cars & police stations to be charged. They don’t have enough cars & cops don’t want to get infected.

Just accept it. Young people don’t care if you die. If you’re still working, they want your job. If you’re retired, they want your house. They actually *wish* you would die, especially if you’re hissing at them through your mask.

Well, maybe us old folks will get lucky and we'll be the ones to inherit the earth.

*I'M* paranoid. Therefore *YOU* have to submit to my irrational, unreasonable demands, otherwise WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!

[quote]They are studying thus now. It makes a big difference as to how to address things, however this turns out, and Societies can be persuaded to do the right thing. Not by Trump, but maybe some better by Governors.

How nice to know they're studying this now. Wake me when they find the answer.

Meanwhile: no country is going to wait to reopen.

[quote] Just accept it. Young people don’t care if you die. If you’re still working, they want your job. If you’re retired, they want your house. They actually *wish* you would die, especially if you’re hissing at them through your mask.

So what's the answer? Should we just cater to the whims of the young people and let them dictate national policy, force everybody back to work, and let tens of thousands (or hundreds of thousands) of people just die?

If young people want to head to the beach and spread the virus around, then they can go ahead. But I don't want them telling me that I have to go back to my workplace.

Is "scold fascists" the new right-wing attack term? Have y'all given up on SJW and WOKE?

You can declare yourselves open all you want. I think you're crazy, cruel and stupid.

I will continue to enjoy my house and self-quarantine until I see fit to stop.

Open your restaurants and shops, I won't come and spend money there. Open your businesses, I won't hire you. I won't have anyone on my property unless absolutely necessary. I won't be traveling for work or fun. I interact with as few people as possible and it's going to stay that way.

I don't believe that we have achieved what needs to be achieved before re-opening. I'm going to sit this out and so is my money.

[quote] So what's the answer? Should we just cater to the whims of the young people and let them dictate national policy, force everybody back to work, and let tens of thousands (or hundreds of thousands) of people just die?

I think R92 would like that very much.

[quote]I will continue to enjoy my house and self-quarantine until I see fit to stop.

Then do that.

Wow! Five right wing flying monkeys posting exclusively on this thread!? That must be a new DL record.

I work at a university. The students hate online learning. They wish we had never gone online. The faculty hate online teaching but are terrified by the thought of being back on campus with 15,000 students in the fall. In a normal semester, students are elbow to elbow in crowded classrooms -- and crowded hallways, crowded dorm rooms, the library, the dining halls, etc. Social distancing is impossible (we don't have the space or facilities), and you'll never get students to wear masks or wash their hands frequently.

If colleges and universities bow to political or economic pressure and reopen their campuses in the fall, which is starting to look like a real possibility, disaster will play out in college towns across the country as thousands of students descend on those communities. September will be horrific.

For R102: I work at a Canadian university. We were told recently that there's a more than a good chance that we'll have to start the Fall term teaching online and that our faculty should start preparing for that mode of course delivery.

I think I need to seriously consider moving out of the LA area into a rural, less-populated area. It seems like the problems there are much less severe. People are more spread out. LA County has more than half the cases and deaths for the entire state (but only about 1/4 of the population.) I'm terrified of going outside here. But I have relatives in Sonoma County who are much more relaxed about things.

R102, why do you think that? By the fall most of us will have immunity and be fine. I think if we gradually ease restrictions throughout the summer people will see that our weeks of social distancing have gotten things under control.

We're not going to have herd immunity by fall, no way.

Social distancing is the antithesis of herd immunity. When isolating, the herd is not developing any immunity. Our staying home allowed our healthcare system to survive and treat our first outbreak. That's why we did it.

What we need is simple, we just don't have it yet.

We need a massive national testing program.

We need a massive national contact tracing program.

In countries who were able to manage outbreaks, that's how they did it.

We need better, more reliable treatments. In America if your virus progresses to the point where you need a ventilator, 50/50 you end up in a body bag.

No one should trust this re-opening bullshit until the government gets some basic things done that they've been fucking around on for four months now. They're not going to get what they want, the economy back up and running, until they provide some basic health support to the citizens of the United States.

R107 you are the most intelligent post on this fucked up thread.

But R107, now that everything is slowly opening up again, herd immunity will start to form. By August most will have been exposed and gained immunity. By September schools and universities should be up and running normally.

[quote] By August most will have been exposed and gained immunity.

Says who? How do we know that?

No, herd immunity will not be developed by August.

Yes, you definitely need to go back to school.

[quote]We need a massive national testing program.

Testing means little.

I can test positive with no symptoms. Now what?

I can test negative today but be positive 2 days on. Is someone going to test us everyday? How many times a week to you suggest we get tested'

Contact tracing? What if I don't remember everyone I was in contact with? What if I lie?

No western country has been able to implement contact tracing.

And who is going to handle the millions and millions of tests required? And how much time would all of this take?

If they developed a system of where they could trace you by where you go with your cellphone, I would simply start leaving my cell phone at home. Nobody is going to be telling me, you could have been exposed, so now you have to sit at home for two weeks.

[quote]Contact tracing? What if I don't remember everyone I was in contact with?

If you've gone grocery shopping even once in the last few weeks, and even if you have Marilu Henner's memory, how are you going to identify everyone you came in contact with? There was this gorgeous NJB who kept bumping into me (three separate times) at Whole Foods last Saturday night. As much as I might even want to get in touch with him, exactly how would I do that? And what about the ones who crossed my path whom I don't remember?

My gawd some of you people and your false dilemma fallacy arguments. Please educate yourself and learn to think logically.

For starters, read this and think about it for a while before you spout off:

A false dilemma arises when we allow ourselves to be convinced that we have to choose between two and only two mutually exclusive options, when that is untrue. Generally, when this rhetorical strategy is used, one of the options is unacceptable and repulsive, while the other is the one the manipulator wants us to choose. Whoever succumbs to this trap has thus made a choice that is forced, and as such, of little value.

People are positioning our situation as having ONLY 2 mutually exclusive options: (1) stay home and save the world or (2) go out in the world and you are "spreading the virus!" and "causing the deaths of thousands of people with your selfish actions!".

Could it be there are other possibilities? Like mitigating risk when leaving your home? Like opening businesses that are currently considered "non essential", using appropriate distancing and other protective measures? And looking at a more selective approach to quarantining, using risk criteria supported by data? Where are the hot spots? What are the high risk groups? Focus on that. Do extensive antibody testing to determine who has already been exposed and dealt with the virus. That population probably has very low risk.

I encourage people to start thinking more, and spend less time parroting media which unfortunately has become more op-ed than actual news or factual information.

[quote]Do extensive antibody testing to determine who has already been exposed and dealt with the virus.

Is such testing generally available, r115? I'd love to know if I've been exposed. I was sick for six weeks in February and March.

I believe we are getting closer, R116. The FDA approved an antibody test produced by Roche which is reportedly highly accurate. I don't know yet how long it will take to get it rolled out such that the population at large can readily have the test done. But there's progress being made.

I was sick also in March. Mild but symptoms consistent with COVID-19. So I will get the antibody test as soon as it's available.

I realize nobody knows that having the antibodies means 100% certainty you can't get sick again if re-exposed. But that's normally how the body deals with viral infections. Nobody has to prove to me that water is wet either. It is.

R97 It's a term that's been around a while, I've mostly only seen it used for Elizabeth Warren.

[QUOTE] Open your restaurants and shops, I won't come and spend money there. Open your businesses, I won't hire you. I won't have anyone on my property unless absolutely necessary. I won't be traveling for work or fun. I interact with as few people as possible and it's going to stay that way.

MARY! Massive cowardly spaz.

[quote]But they won’t. Their hospitals won’t get overwhelmed. They have enough beds because their states are sparsely populated & no one wants to move there

60 Minutes did a report on rural Texas last night. They don't have the hospital capacity they need and many of their hospitals are in danger of going under from lack of cash.

[quote]Nobody is going to be telling me, you could have been exposed, so now you have to sit at home for two weeks.

Tom Nichols:

This is how Americans now interpret freedom: Not as a political condition in a democratic society, but as a constant chant of "you're not the boss of me." This is not freedom, or at least not freedom in any political sense. It's a child-like understanding of autonomy.

So, be thankful for the adults around you wearing masks, staying in, working with the public at risk to themselves in an ER or even just manning a cash register at the grocery store. Citizens are adults, and we have to get through this despite the overgrown children among us.

The current crop of Datalounge trolls are obsessed with the shutdown and the economy, and not a single one will admit that opening everything "and let the chips fall where they may" will hurt the economy more than the shutdown. Millions sick or dead all at once will be far more destructive.

And the reason they won't admit it is because they know, and apparently it's what they want.

A medical expert said this morning on TV that we will have a workable treatment for CV19 long before we have a vaccine.

If you put the "woke scold fascists" and "we just have to let some people die" trolls on ignore and look at their posts, you'll see they also post on troll threads about trans, Muslims, "black crime" a la Breitbart, Trump, Biden, Pelosi, Meghan Markle, all the hot troll topics.

It's time to start considering ignoring these threads about the shutdown. I know we're all thinking about it pretty much 24/7 but they're troll topics now and nothing good comes from them.

r220 Armchair scientists. They read a few articles and come to a conclusion that they THINK they're correct about. So far the jury is still out on retains immunity to covid-19 so herd immunity might not even be possible. Tired of these magas spread this misinformation around.

[quote] Like opening businesses that are currently considered "non essential", using appropriate distancing and other protective measures?

What if you work in a business where "appropriate distancing" is impossible because of the nature of the job?

[quote] And looking at a more selective approach to quarantining, using risk criteria supported by data? Where are the hot spots? What are the high risk groups?

And how do you enforce that? If you say that everyone with diabetes or over the age of 60 must stay home while everybody else goes out and enjoys the world, are you going to have cops stationed everywhere to check people and make sure they're not over 60 and don't have diabetes? ("Excuse me, sir. You look like you have diabetes. Go home and quarantine!") I don't see how you can selectively close the world to only certain groups of people.

[quote] are you going to have cops stationed everywhere to check people and make sure they're not over 60

Oooh, I could see a big problem with this and DLers.

The CDC, FEMA and the Trump administration are privately predicting a huge rise in cases and deaths this month as states reopen. So there you go. Trump knows that reopening now will kill tens of thousands more people. And he doesn't care.

This is currently on the NY Times front page:

[quote] The Trump administration projects about 3,000 daily deaths by early June.

[quote] As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.

[quote] The projections, based on modeling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.

[quote] The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, not much has changed. And the reopening to the economy will make matters worse.

Which thread had the input that there are dozens of career public health experts and epidemiologists perfectly qualified to give expert input on this situation. And yet in media we are hearing only from non experts. It makes my blood boil.

R128 the scandal in Trump's reopening is that his executive branch has not masterminded appropriate public safety measures to open as safely as possible. All Trump and company do is spin spin spin spin spin spin spin. In three months time they might say "500K deaths" or might say "250K deaths" and it will just lead to more spin spin spin spin. They never ordered a national lockdown. Never ordered a national, command response for protective equipment, tests, tracking.

Have you ever worked with such last minute, stop-gap, unskilled, bombastic do nothings, such spin masters? I have. It's awful. It's sheer chaos. Everything is destroyed.

Zero evidence that the presence of antibodies confers immunity. (Regardless of which strain). Herd immunity is a ridiculous fallacy until evidence to the contrary. Some scientists doubt a vaccine will ever be produced which is effective.

[quote]Zero evidence that the presence of antibodies confers immunity.

Also zero evidence that the presence of antibodies does not confer immunity.

I read recent re-evaluations of China and Korea that there is evidence people do not get reinfected so yes, antibodies = immunity. They don't know for how long.

[quote]Herd immunity is a ridiculous fallacy until evidence to the contrary.

Herd immunity is not a fallacy.

R132 & R133 It's obvious you'll believe as you like. Go get your immunity then. Very little is understood about this virus, and several scientists have expressed otherwise. One doesn't develop immunity to any of the other Coronaviruses either; why would this be the opposite?

[quote]Very little is understood about this virus

And yet you seem supremely confident in your doomsday predictions.

R136 I never gave any such "doomsday" prediction. When one is cautious of claims not borne out to be true, scientifically speaking, doesn't make one negative, but rather simply realistic. Things are not yet so clear, as some here wish to think.

Herd Immunity shouldn't be the "Holy Grail" here. Better therapeutics, and possibly a treatment involving the serum, to be used as a seasonal prophylaxis hold some hope. My stating some scientists have doubts, is just me reporting what I have read. I'm no Pollyanna either, and shall continue to social distance. It's nice to be positive, but dangerous to be Dr. Pangloss here.

I declare R122 & R125 are smart, and can come sit by me later on when we're on better footing.

A case in France has been confirmed from back in December.

Care to clarify, r139?

The Guardian: A French hospital has retested old samples from pneumonia patients and discovered that it treated a man who had Covid-19 as early as 27 December, nearly a month before the French government confirmed its first cases.

Scientists retested samples from 24 patients treated in December and January who tested negative for the flu. One of them tested positive for Covid-19.

The patient survived and an investigation to trace the first contamination has been carried out. The man was sick for 15 days and infected his two children, but not his wife, who works in a supermarket.

He was amazed, he didn’t understand how he had been infected. He had not made any trips. The only contact that he had was with his wife.

But the man’s wife worked alongside a sushi stand, close to colleagues of Chinese origin. It was not clear whether those colleagues had travelled to China.

Oh, yes, I see what you mean now.

There were cases in New York as early as January too.

The Secretary to the Governor said yesterday that there were 10,700 cases before they even knew there was one.

R141 - it says his wife was not infected. So how did she miraculously transmit it to her husband, who did not work there? Droplets on her clothing, which he licked?

R143, in this context, I believe it means the wife never got sick. That would mean she was never tested for the flu and there is no sample to retroactively test for Covid-19.

Was thinking the same thing, r144.

There wouldn’t be anything to test her for now except antibodies.

IHME raises its number of projected U.S. deaths from 72,000 to 134,475.

From the IHME on Twitter:

[quote] Our latest forecasts project nearly 135,000 #COVID19 deaths in the United States. These projections reflect increased human mobility and the easing of social distancing measures in many US states. Read our press announcement:

The Trump administration is privately predicting 3,000 deaths a day by June 1st, but it's not like it's 3,000 RICH people a day, so they couldn't care less.

Re: Reopening : How does Disney World Social Fukin Distance?

R149 Disney’s parks are done until there’s a vaccine which could be never.

Mickey might have to start turning tricks.

Bitch, please.

Disney will figure something out. They have a group called "Industrial Engineering" that works with ops management to figure out complex logistical things like guest flow patterns through the park, maximizing ride utilization, queuing efficiency, etc. They seem to be able to solve just about anything.

[quote]Mickey might have to start turning tricks.

Uh-oh.

[quote] Zero evidence that the presence of antibodies confers immunity. (Regardless of which strain). Herd immunity is a ridiculous fallacy until evidence to the contrary.

This is needlessly alarmist. Antibodies typically produce immunity. There is no need to think that they won’t until proven otherwise.

Yes, there is a chance that they won’t. Also a possibility that the virus will turn people into zombies six months after infection. There is a chance that the virus will suddenly resurge in the body and kill people long after the initial infection. So?

New study offers evidence of immunity in those who recover from Covid-19.

If you hear hoofs, don't assume zebras when it's probably horses like usual.

Nobody needs to prove to me that water is wet. I already know that. The human immune system typically develops immunity when it successfully fights off a virus. It is reasonable to assume it will in the case of this virus as well.

Can't understand why Trump hasn't gotten it. He's elderly and obese. And he's hobnobbed with countless people while never wearing a mask.

The Trump clan have all received prevention. First it was antivirals, then it was plasma.

As someone who has no underlying conditions and who is under 60, I would rather get Covid 19 than the vaccine.

Tell us more, r161. Are you depressed?

How surprising that an anti-vaxxer bumped a troll thread that had finally died.

[quote]As someone who has no underlying conditions and who is under 60, I would rather get Covid 19 than the vaccine.

I think a lot of people are going to be wary of taking a new vaccine that's been rushed into production.

r163 Thirteen hours hardly constitutes Bump Bitchery.

Right, R158, that's why when you get a cold or the flu, you're immune from that point on and will never again get a cold or the flu.

R158 The question isn't really whether we'll develop immunity after a coronavirus infection, but for how long it will last. Could be a few weeks, months, years... We have no idea. A lot of respiratory viruses are seasonal and it's possible to get infected year after year.

New Post-U. Md. poll: Americans widely oppose reopening most businesses, despite easing of restrictions in some states,

[quote] Right, R158, that's why when you get a cold or the flu, you're immune from that point on and will never again get a cold or the flu.

I hope you realize how stupid you sound in spite of your attempt at sarcasm.

For one thing, in the past most humans have gotten immunity from Coronaviruses after getting it. Maybe not forever, but in the near term. The only question with this one is because it’s novel.

Secondly the cold is a rhinovirus, not a coronavirus, so the comparison makes zero sense.

The flu has several different mutations with which you can become infected again. But you won’t be infected in the same season with the same mutation.

I suppose people collecting unemployment or bailout money would like to keep it going as long as possible. Also, the people who prefer working from home. The list of choices doesn’t include things like doctor and dentist offices. My dentist’s office is closed and my appointment in April was cancelled. I pray I don’t have a dental emergency.

New York Times leadership tells staff in memo that "the earliest day we will ask people who are currently working remotely to return to our offices in New York will be on Sept. 8, the Tuesday after Labor Day."

R169, not R166, but you're a dumbass. A lot of viruses can cause the common cold, and coronavirus are in fact the second cause after rhinoviruses.

Also,

[quote] Initial infections occur early in life but re-infection continues to occur at all ages. There is no cross-protection between different types of coronavirus and immunity to the same virus type is also short lived with re-infection being documented within a few months.

[quote]I hope you realize how stupid you sound in spite of your attempt at sarcasm.

I hope you realize how stupid the remark I was replying to sounded, and how stupid your attempt to address my sarcasm sounded.

[post redacted because linking to dailymail.co.uk clearly indicates that the poster is either a troll or an idiot (probably both, honestly.) Our advice is that you just ignore this poster but whatever you do, don't click on any link to this putrid rag.]

No, R162 - I used to work in HIV vaccine development.

Weird that "gun stores" and "nail salons" are so central to a nation's culture.

[quote]Weird that "gun stores" and "nail salons" are so central to a nation's culture.

Weird that Walmart and DollarStore are more important than small shop owners.

[quote] Weird that "gun stores" and "nail salons" are so central to a nation's culture.

Germany is reopening museums, galleries, and gardens.

America is reopening gun stores and nail salons.

'Murka, fuck yeah!

[quote] America is reopening gun stores and nail salons.

“America” has no jurisdiction to do that. It’s the states that have to do reopening plans and the plans vary by state. Be specific which state(s) you are referring to.