One America: Biden For President

No need for another thread. Anyone with 1/2 a brain knows that the only way to defeat Trump is to go out and vote for Biden. Even if you don't like the man, he is much much better than Trump.

he'll never win

He will win, every bit of evidence points to that. But let's be pissy little bitches and say he won't.

Lol, at this point it may just be a fight for the corpse of America.

Just like in 2016 that message will work in the cities and suburbs but not in rural America. Lots of people in rural America think the soul of the country is white straight Protestant, and Trump is fighting for it.

He's a senile, doddering old fool, who's about to face sexual assault charges.

He's a senile, doddering old fool, who's about to face sexual assault charges.

Sorry, R5 but 2016 is very different than 2020. Just look at the results of the elections every year since. They are craving a change from Trump.

Pssst, R6. I don’t think so.

Yes R8 the midterms made me optimistic that suburban women have had it with Trump’s bullshit. But I’m still a little worried that we’re doubling down on the same losing strategy from 2016. If you’re going to concede every rural county by 20-50 points then you damn well better know how to get out your vote in the cities and suburbs.

Thank you for starting this thread, OP. I was going to start one once I saw this ad hours ago but I assumed that there was already a PRO-BIDEN thread and I just couldn't find it. Can this be that thread?

I thought the ad was very moving. Among other things that I want to see return to the White House I want to see DECENCY make its return. It will with Joe Biden!

COME ON, JOE! LET'S DO THIS!!!

[quote]But I’m still a little worried that we’re doubling down on the same losing strategy from 2016. If you’re going to concede every rural county by 20-50 points then you damn well better know how to get out your vote in the cities and suburbs.

No one wants Trump back in the White House except the very wealthy and racists like R2, R6, and R9

R10, what is the losing strategy again? What makes you think Dems are conceding all of those counties when Joe Biden is polling better in almost all of them than Hillary did?

He sure as hell has my vote. I want to see DJT vanquished and humiliated.

No members of the gay community in the clip? Lots of blacks in it but the rest of us are missing. We are NOT invisible - we are HERE too! "We the people" means ALL of us!!!

You’re welcome, R11. I think people will crawl over glass to get the current asshole out of office.

I will vote for Biden. But it breaks my heart that I won't be voting for Hillary.

UNITY!

It's a fucking clown car. What a shame the party has become.

Yeah I'll vote for him but fuck him. He's an idiot and the Democrats should be ashamed for promoting him. Oh God. We're doomed.

[quote]He's an idiot and the Democrats should be ashamed for promoting him. Oh God. We're doomed.

I guess you believe that we are doing GREAT now, R20?

R16 'Crawl over glass' ? Nope. I'll vote for him but I won't sacrifice myself to him or his fame-mongering family. This election is huge but it doesn't excuse his behavior or his family's grasping for fame. His election will calm us down but is not our salvation.

I'm so glad he stomped Sanders so decisively and I'm looking forward to voting for him and every other Democrat in November!

Joe Biden@JoeBiden·

The fact is there has been so much unnecessary death in this country. If we had listened to the experts and heeded their warnings, it could have been stopped short. But Donald Trump failed to act — and now the American people are paying the price.

I’m all in.

When they DID act people ignored it, especially in New York. Biden has brain issues. Wish Mark Cuban was running

Biden doesn't know he's alive. He's the worst yet in my life that I've seen run. It's shockingly sad.

^But, you love the guy in the White House now...

Stop trolling R27

Biden admitted today that he would rather be supporting Hillary's re-election bid right now than running for President.

Maybe one of his first orders could be overturning the decision and making Hillary the legitimate winner of the 2016 election.

I wish his teeth would stop falling out when he talks.

So sad.

If only he were capable of speaking in coherent sentences. His garbled word salad is impossible to listen to without pain.

So, don't listen to him R33. Ya know... I don't know what your objective here is. I don't know if you're a psycho that is looking for friends or a troll that "gets off" on the responses that you can get. Either way, it's not going to work. You don't like Biden. Okay... we get it. But, regardless of the comments that you persist in posting here, it's not going to change the support and RESPECT that the rest of us have for him. Now, run along...

R34, you're my hero. I'd much rather have Biden than the hostile loser socialist Bernie as president.

R34 So “just don’t listen to him”? This guy you want to be president? That’s gonna be hard to do for four years, don’t you think?

Oh, I don't know, R36. I don't listen to Anusmouth's speeches. I'm not missing out on anything life affirming.

[quote]I'd much rather have Biden than the hostile loser socialist Bernie as president.

This goes far beyond being sore losers. This is an internet strategy. The BernieBros can't get it through their thick heads that they no longer have any credibility whatsoever. They couldn't even get their own kind out to vote for their own guy! I guess they forgot to offer the free beer at the polling booths...

Anyway, (while I have no proof), I'm beginning to feel that this "internet strategy" is nothing more than a funded effort by those conservative pacs who are trying to cause dissension among the Democratic base and sane voters, and/or suppress the vote.

It makes no sense. How in the world can anyone who believes in and supports Sanders and his initiatives for universal healthcare, climate change, etc THEN do everything possible to help put this nightmare that is in the White House now, back in? Trump and the Republicans believe in none of that stuff.

[quote] It makes no sense. How in the world can anyone who believes in and supports Sanders and his initiatives for universal healthcare, climate change, etc THEN do everything possible to help put this nightmare that is in the White House now, back in? Trump and the Republicans believe in none of that stuff.

This is why I hate the far right and far left. Both act on pure emotion without any thought at all. They are like little kids--if they don't get what they want, they will throw a tantrum, even if they just end up digging their own hole. I'm blue no matter what but I would never publicly support Bernie (even if I voted for him if he was the nominee).

We’re getting 4 more years of Trump. Americans are dumb and Democrats haven’t a clue. He’ll get impeached a second time.

Democrats will blame the coronavirus and conspiracies as to why Biden bombed. It’ll be even worse than Hillary.

Ohio results. I want Biden to reach the magic number before the convention. Because, you know.

Ohio district 3: Joyce Beatty trounces Squad-favorite challenger.

R40 I don't think so. The economy will be shit on election day no matter what they do at this point. It's impossible to be re-elected when the economy is shit.

His talking head has become like a Max Headroom image.

Dementia is not pretty.

Look at all of the trolls posting at odd hours of the night.

It’s almost as if they live far, far away in another country.

Joe is a class act.

For Monica Watry, it was "amazing" to be heard.

Watry, who works as an ICU nurse in downtown Milwaukee, said she was getting ready for another long shift at the hospital Friday when she got a Zoom call from Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.

"He was so compassionate and so caring and just really, really took the time to listen," Watry told the Journal Sentinel. "We video chatted for over 45 minutes, and then he called my cellphone right afterward and talked to my kids and talked to my husband, and he just really took the time to hear us."

Watry said Biden listened as she talked about the stress and fear facing her and other health care workers as they cope with an onslaught of coronavirus patients and deaths, and the toll her long hours at work has taken on her family.

"I admire the hell out of what you're doing," Biden told her during the chat.

Block anyone who uses “dementia”. Scum.

That's not going to help.

[quote] Dementia is not pretty.

And neither are getting heart attacks, collapsing while hitting your head on the shower door and lying about releasing your medical records.

Oh, yet ANOTHER far left, Squad supported candidate lost an election, R42? But...but...but...everyone wants Bernie! And what the Progressives are selling! Everyone!

How could Reality happen like that??? 🤣

I sure wish I had a higher number of FFs I could use for this thread.

I don't block anyone.

[quote] Oh, yet ANOTHER far left, Squad supported candidate lost an election,

How shocking, it's almost as if most people DON'T want to vote for Bernie or his minions. Wait, no, never mind, the better explanation is that this is all a mass conspiracy, DNC rigged everything, Hilary is a vampire, etc. Yeah, that'll work.

[quote] anyone who uses “dementia”.

It would be be better to present Biden in his own words and let the public decide how far gone.

[quote]It would be be better to present Biden in his own words and let the public decide

Knock, Knock. honey... we have. Vice President Biden is the presumptive Democratic nominee

By "the public", R54 means' "all my Bernie supporter friends that live on Reddit".

Don't make me laugh. Who is his running mate?

[quote] Who is his running mate?

Not someone who has heart attacks in the shower and hides their medical records, that's for sure.

Biden campaign announces vice presidential selection committee

By Sarah Mucha, CNN

Updated 10:20 AM ET, Thu April 30, 2020

(CNN)Joe Biden's campaign announced Thursday the co-chairs of its vice presidential selection committee who will lead the charge to vet potential running mates.

Former Sen. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti and Cynthia C. Hogan, a former White House and Senate counsel to Biden, will chair the committee's search for the right woman to join Biden on the Democratic ticket. The former vice president told donors during a fundraiser Wednesday that he hopes this vetting process will be done by July.

Biden has promised to choose a woman as his running mate and said he will pick someone who is "simpatico" with his views. He also recently shared that former President Barack Obama had advised him to pick someone who "has strengths where I have weaknesses."

"Selecting a vice presidential candidate is one of the most important decisions in a presidential campaign and no one knows this more than Joe Biden," Biden campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon said in a statement.

"These four co-chairs reflect the strength and diversity of our party, and will provide tremendous insight and expertise to what will be a rigorous selection and vetting process. We are grateful for their service to the campaign and for their leadership."

The campaign said this committee will work in conjunction with a "network of vetting teams" that will be led by former White House counsel Bob Bauer, campaign general counsel Dana Remus and former Homeland Security Adviser and CNN contributor Lisa Monaco.

There are a number of women who are likely to be considered and have been in regular contact with Biden during the pandemic, including Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. California Sen. Kamala Harris, former Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams and Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto are all potential contenders as well.

Biden has also long made a pledge that he will have a diverse administration that "looks like America." He reiterated this point to donors Wednesday, saying his administration, cabinet, vice president and any Supreme Court nominees "will look like the country."

The presumptive Democratic nominee also said he might announce cabinet positions along with his vice-presidential pick before the election in November. He said he would consider a bipartisan cabinet, telling donors Wednesday that he would not place "any limitation on if someone were a Republican, if they're the best qualified person" to serve in a cabinet post.

Once again, my vote will be a vote against Trump - not a vote FOR his opponent. Biden is a shit candidate, but he's all we have.

Time to bring in the gays. Let's get to work all!

Gay Obama Alum Rufus Gifford Joins Biden Campaign

The former U.S. ambassador will serve as deputy campaign manager.

Rufus Gifford, an Obama campaign alum, has joined the former VP’s presidential campaign as his deputy campaign manager, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. In the new position, Gifford will reportedly focus on the intersection of finance policy and political work.

Previously, Gifford served as Barack Obama’s finance chair in 2012 and the U.S. ambassador to Denmark during Obama’s second term.

I think Biden will win 1991 delegates by the primaries' end, even w/o NY.

[Just an interesting op-ed:]

Tammy Duckworth is Biden’s safest — and smartest — vice presidential pick

David Byler

Data analyst and political columnist

April 29, 2020 at 8:49 a.m. PDT

This piece is part of series where I make the best possible case for various potential running mates for Joe Biden. The rest of the articles can be found here.

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is playing prevent defense. Biden is ahead of President Trump by six points in national polls and leads in swing states such as Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Arizona. He doesn’t need to recapture the news cycle, retool his strategy or reinvent the wheel to beat Trump. He just needs to stay ahead and run out the clock.

So when Biden picks his running mate, he should simply try to minimize risk. Biden should stay away from big-name progressives such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), future superstars such as Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.) or Georgian Stacey Abrams and swing-state saviors such as Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) or Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.). Those candidates might net Biden some votes, but choosing them would also pose real risks to Biden’s campaign and to his agenda. The safest choice, and the one most able to bolster important parts of Biden’s message, is Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.).

Duckworth easily meets the basic requirements for the job. She served in the House for four years and has been in the Senate since 2017, giving her more congressional experience than Donald Trump or Barack Obama had when they were inaugurated. As a 52-year-old religiously unaffiliated Asian American, she would balance the ticket demographically. She’s plausible as commander in chief, an essential qualification given Biden’s age. And, like Biden, she’s neither too liberal nor too moderate — data-driven measures place her right in the middle of the Senate Democratic Caucus.

And more than that, adding Duckworth to the ticket would also fill in some of the gaps in Biden’s experience while amplifying his vision. Biden constantly touts his foreign policy experience, but he has never served in the military. Duckworth is a combat veteran who lost her legs in the Iraq War, and as vice president, she would be able to provide a soldier’s firsthand perspective on war in the Middle East. More broadly, her time in the military would underscore Biden’s emphasis on service and sacrifice, especially at a moment when Trump’s handling of the pandemic has raised questions about how he treats members of the armed services.

This isn’t the only area where Duckworth’s personal story and political experience would make her a formidable addition to the ticket. As the Biden administration tackles issues such as paid family leave, Duckworth could provide a crucial combination of legislative know-how and firsthand personal experience as a relatively new parent to make the case for the administration’s proposals.

And simply as a matter of tactics, Duckworth’s status as a veteran and a mom would help her blunt the criticisms that are often aimed at female politicians. Her time in the military will make it hard for opponents to paint her as sentimental or purely emotional, while her status as a working mother would help some voters relate to her.

In addition to these assets, Duckworth doesn’t bring with her an obvious downside of the sort that plague her competitors.

...

...

If Biden picked a progressive like Warren, she could electrify the base — or drive away the swing voters and persuadable Republicans that Biden needs to win. Harris would be an asset on the campaign trail, but President Trump would constantly replay clips of her demolishing Biden on the Democratic debate stage. Abrams doesn’t have traditional presidential qualifications, and that’s a huge liability for someone who needs to back up a candidate as old as Biden. Klobuchar and Baldwin could deliver Midwestern votes, but they would leave their purple-state Senate seats vulnerable to Republican takeover. And Whitmer is a risky choice — nobody knows how popular (or unpopular) she will be once the coronavirus crisis is over, and with it her efforts to keep Michigan voters at home.

Duckworth, by contrast, doesn’t have any of that baggage.

She’s not a hardcore progressive. She didn’t spend the better part of 2019 making the case against Biden. Maybe most importantly for Biden’s ability to actually pass legislation, her Senate seat would be safe. If she became vice president, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) would appoint her replacement, and that candidate would likely win his or her next election.

And that’s why Biden needs her. Biden doesn’t need to give voters reasons to vote for him: Trump has already done that by presiding over a disastrous first term. He needs to make sure Americans don’t find reasons to vote against him. A Biden-Duckworth ticket would emphasize Biden’s key selling points without taking on any new risks. Duckworth would help Biden stay the course and stay ahead in this race — which is exactly what he needs.

* Duckworth was born in Thailand, but her father was an American citizen so we believe that she is constitutionally eligible to be president or vice president.

R29: Presidents have no such power. Read the Constitution. And then never comment again.

[quote]Abrams doesn’t have traditional presidential qualifications, and that’s a huge liability for someone who needs to back up a candidate as old as Biden.

I agree. This chick is campaigning for the job like it's a student council position and so many people are pushing her. But, she is no where near experienced enough--even in life, to be a heart beat away from arguably the most powerful position in the world. I would think that Kamal Harris would be a better choice among the two. Actually, Susan Rice is the best pick among Black women. I don't include that Florida woman because until she buys better wigs I don't want anything to do with her.

Elizabeth Warren would be fantastic! Give her a job and she'll get it done and she'd scare the HELL out of Republicans! I do like Amy Klobachar too but she can't bring enough to the ticket.

This is a tough decision and choice

Sadly, we will look back at this period as the time the Democrats were asleep at the wheel. It's like having Johnny Quest's dad run for president. Only through a tv screen, with the same back ground, Biden quietly and carefully reads detailed and crafted messages to be the blandest possible by people who still do not get how Trump won. It is mind blowing ineptitude. Trump is going to cake-walk this thing. Watch. Then Hillary's crown for worst run campaign will be given to Biden's crew.

Not positive about this at all. The debates will be a debacle for the ages. Entire college courses will be on how a Trump, a person who has destroyed EVERYTHING, and in the middle of a PANDEMIC, won against Biden.

I'm going to start giving a tiny bit to start: $20 a week.

[quote]Sadly, we will look back at this period as the time the Democrats were asleep at the wheel.

I SO DISAGREE!!!!

[quote] Biden quietly and carefully reads detailed and crafted messages to be the blandest possible by people who still do not get how Trump won.

I disagree with this too. Most people know EXACTLY how Trump won and therefore once many looked into a mirror they realized that they are not that person. Most people can identify with Joe Biden

I think he'll win the way Vanguard index funds win: slow and steady, ignoring all demands to make a big swing by, .e.g., choosing Warren/Abrams or putting forth a controversial new policy position.

Trump is like an emerging market fund: polarizing, potentially a home run (2016), but more often than not can't deliver.

Slow and steady sometimes wins the race.

Ladies and gentleman, R67 is a misery troll. Study this post. You're gonna see a lot of this disingenuous nonsense over the next six months.

I ignore people like R67 in real life. They bring nothing to the table aside misery, negativity, and tinymeat.

Watching Trump mop the floor with these imbeciles is going to be fantastic.

Will he be using bleach, R73? I've heard it's a hot commodity in certain circles, lately. A lot of people are saying! Yuge numbers! Bigly!

R63, thanks for posting about Duckworth. I think the fact that she isn't really nationally known as less as Warren, Klobuchar or Harris may actually be an asset. It will give the Biden administration a better opportunity to "introduce" her to the national public whereas I feel people have more or less made up their minds about the 3 other women mentioned. A Biden-Duckworth ticket would be incredible.

Hey R74, he's not hiding out in his basement, falling asleep while Hillary is telling him and the rest of the world that she's backing him. They're messes.

[quote] Watching Trump mop the floor with these imbeciles is going to be fantastic.

Fuck off Boris.

Biden already putting together transition team: ‘You can’t wait until you win’

Published: April 27, 2020 at 11:34 p.m. ET

By Associated Press

Presumptive Democratic nominee confident he can lure departed career civil servants back to posts

WASHINGTON — Former Vice President Joe Biden is already working with a team to plan for his transition in preparation for winning the White House in November, he told donors during a virtual fundraiser Monday night.

Biden said he has been meeting with former Delaware Sen. Ted Kaufman, his longtime top aide who was appointed to fill Biden’s Senate seat when he was elected vice president, to discuss his transition plans. Kaufman worked on Barack Obama’s transition team in 2008, and helped author legislation formalizing the presidential transition process.

Biden told host Penny Pritzker, who served as secretary of commerce under Obama, that he’s also “working with folks like you who, in fact, are already deciding, what do we have to do?”

“You can’t wait until you win, if you win. You’ve got to start right now,” he said.

Biden said his campaign is putting together a transition team and has received considerable “intake” from individuals, particularly from the Treasury, State and Defense departments, about a prospective Biden administration.

“People know we’re in real trouble and they’re ready to help,” Biden said.

And he said that though the Trump administration has seen an exodus of career civil servants, he’s optimistic he can bring some of those workers back.

“You’ve got to be ready on Day One to be able to start naming people to head up these Cabinet positions, sub-Cabinet positions and those appointments that are in within the departments that are career positions, and bring people back,” he said. “I think we can do it.”

The former vice president had previously said he had “several hundred serious, serious players,” including some Republicans, who have told him they’d like to return to their jobs if he wins the White House.

[quote] Sadly, we will look back at this period as the time the Democrats were asleep at the wheel. It's like having Johnny Quest's dad run for president.

I think Biden appears more like Captain Pike on Star Trek. He just needs to be outfitted with a device to allow to answer all questions as yes or no.

Joe Biden@JoeBiden·

We may be physically apart, but we are all in this together.

He’ll be on Morning Joe tomorrow.

Pod Save was particularly disgusting today. Desperate to be priased as woke, they were all in on the legitimacy the bullshit allegations.

Joe Biden@JoeBiden·2h

This crisis isn't about you, Mr. President. It's about the American people.

The hell with this pandemic nonsense. The most important issue facing America today is the complete and total disrespect for the sanctity of the vagiina. The pussy must be venerated and adored, and anyone who disrespects the pussy must be dealt with accordingly.

[quote] This crisis isn't about you, Mr. President. It's about the American people.

Biden is blaming the American people?

Good sign!

College Republicans for Biden@CollegeGOP4Joe·Apr 29

The fallout from COVID-19 will ring loudly in the annals of history as a stark reminder of this administration’s gross incompetence & utter malfeasance. The stakes couldn’t be higher in November. For our republic’s sake, we will put #CountryOverParty & campaign for @JoeBiden

.

FYI

Lift Every Voice: The Biden Plan for Black America

Is that for real at R86? If so, wow & good for them!

He'll surround himself with reasonable decent intelligent people. But regardless of that and whatever the GOP digs up, Joe Biden's got my vote (and my 25$ donation).

Our new President with dementia already. At least Reagan started with reasonable mental health...

I believe they are, R88. However, it might be an offshoot of the Lincoln Project (never Trumpers) We' have to see as time moves forward

College Republicans for Biden@CollegeGOP4Joe Based @AmericanU, College Republicans & center-right students nationwide putting #CountryOverParty & backing @JoeBiden. Not affiliated w/ @AmericanCRs or @CRNC Washington, DCinstagram(dot)com/collegegopforb…Joined April 2020 325 Following 1,213 Followers

Thanks R91

College Republicans for Biden appears to be only a Twitter and an Instagram account.

2020's version of "but her emails".

YAY! Human Rights Campaign endorses Joe!

Human Rights Campaign@HRC

HRC is the nation’s largest LGBTQ civil rights organization. We envision a world where LGBTQ people are ensured equality at home, at work & in every community. We’re proud of the more than 57 million Equality Voters across the country who’ve championed LGBTQ issues from the local to federal level -- and come this November’s elections, we’ll do it again.

Morning Joe@Morning_Joe·1h

.@HRC is endorsing Joe Biden for president

Which accused rapist will you choose?

anyone with an ounce of sense knows that Joe never raped anyone. More kool-aid?

R98 No. we do not KNOW.

Just as the Republican tribe pretends Trump never raped anyone the Democratic tribe does the same.

Biden will soon be replaced.

Yeah, the Tara Reade story fell apart fast. Unfortunately the media isn't as quick to point out her inconsistencies as they were with pushing a false narrative.

Typical of them when it comes to Democrats, R100

Your tribe believes that I know R100. The R tribe says all of the Trump accusers stories fell apart fast.

I'm of the East Coast Independents tribe, R102.

He's not going to win and Trumpsters don't participate in polls.

I can't stand either one of them but since Trump has been president I've made more money every year, paid less taxes and I have better and cheaper healthcare. What does Biden have to offer?

I'll vote for Joe, but goddamn, he sounds like he's 110. He can't finish a sentence on a strong note. He poops out after about six words.

r105 it is nice to know that you think the only one that counts is you. anyone that supports Trump at this point is only going to be saved in the end by the democrats. If we left it up to people like you we would become another North Korea

Saved from what R107?

Obviously everyone wants to get rid of Trump but don't kid yourselves with this senile ancient fool.

Trump never raped anyone. I've known so many guys like him in my career (Real Estate 'Moguls", Hedge Fund Douches and all their ilk). They are all talk and bravado. They run home to mamma or their wives if any woman tries to make a pass at them . I'm not defending him but it's all part of the culture he comes from. Only the low level idiots in that world follow through with the whores and end up on the street in that business.

Why ON EARTH can't America do better than this?

I wouldn't trust this guy to walk my dog, let alone run the country.

Americans always seem to deny old age. They refuse to see it.

People on DL sneer at you if it seems you're over 40 but "Hey! Biden For President!" and "I'm backing Bernie!"

Right. You think this guy has four more years in him...from November?

love him!

You can 'love him" all you want - but that aint gonna cut it, Mary.

Biden was far from my first choice, but he is far better than the shithole we've got in the WH right now so I will vote for him.

Let's not act like Biden is some moral authority or decent upstanding person. He's not. Biden is only a placeholder for the veep, who will takeover the Presidency when Biden resigns due to the 25th amendment.

R111 the US sees age more than anyone. Try being over 40 and getting a job.

[quote][R111] the US sees age more than anyone. Try being over 40 and getting a job.

Except when it comes to the job of President, it seems.

YASSUH! COME ON WITH IT!!!

Obama says White House response to coronavirus has been 'absolute chaotic disaster'

(CNN)Former President Barack Obama delivered a blistering critique of the Trump administration's response to the coronavirus crisis, describing it as "an absolute chaotic disaster" during a private call Friday night with people who worked for him in the White House and across his administration.

The searing comments, confirmed to CNN by three former Obama administration officials on the call, offered the starkest assessment yet from the former president about how President Donald Trump and his team have handled the deadly pandemic and why he believes Democrats must rally behind former Vice President Joe Biden to defeat Trump in November.

In a 30-minute conversation with members of the Obama Alumni Association, the former president said the response to the coronavirus outbreak served as a critical reminder for why strong government leadership is needed during a global crisis. The call was intended to encourage former Obama staffers to become more engaged in Biden's presidential campaign.

"This election that's coming up -- on every level -- is so important because what we're going to be battling is not just a particular individual or a political party," Obama said. "What we're fighting against is these long-term trends in which being selfish, being tribal, being divided, and seeing others as an enemy -- that has become a stronger impulse in American life."

The comments were first reported by Yahoo News, which obtained an audio recording of the call. A spokesman for Obama declined to comment or elaborate on the former president's remarks.

Obama also weighed in on the Michael Flynn case, saying Attorney General William Barr's decision to drop the criminal case against Flynn suggested "the rule of law was at risk" in the United States. Before taking office, Obama warned Trump about Flynn and raised questions about his conduct with Russia.

But Obama saved his strongest words for the Trump administration's handling of the coronavirus crisis and its worldview.

"It's part of the reason why the response to this global crisis has been so anemic and spotty," Obama said. "It would have been bad even with the best of governments. It has been an absolute chaotic disaster when that mindset -- of 'what's in it for me' and 'to heck with everybody else' -- when that mindset is operationalized in our government."

He added: "That's why, I, by the way, am going to be spending as much time as necessary and campaigning as hard as I can for Joe Biden."

After formally endorsing Biden last month, Obama said he would be deeply involved in the campaign to help Biden win the White House. His remarks on Friday night were the latest example of that effort, telling the Obama Alumni group: "I am hoping that all of you feel the same sense of urgency that I do."

Yea, when Obama wanted to murder Americans he did not unleash a virus but a drone.

What a bullshit commercial at R122.

...I am Joe Biden, and I forgot this message!

Thanks for sharing, R122. If the trolls hadn’t kicked this thread, I might have missed it.

I just read that a notable “Republicans for Biden” group is forming. A wave is beginning to take shape.

This is why we MUST be on our toes! This is from AXIOS and so it has credibility

6 hours ago - Economy & Business

The money is on Trump

Dion Rabouin

Even after the White House's delayed response to the coronavirus outbreak, unprecedented job losses and a bruising recession, investors and betting markets are still putting their money on President Trump to win re-election.

The big picture: Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a sizable lead in most national and individual swing state polls — but money managers expect Trump to retake the White House in November.

In a late April survey of U.S.-based investors with at least $1 million of assets, UBS found that 53% said they planned to vote for Biden.

But 52% think Trump will win.

The intrigue: The world's most popular betting destinations show Trump as the clear favorite.

The RealClearPolitics average of betting websites gives the advantage to Trump with an average spread of 8.2 as of Sunday night.

Casino sportsbooks are paying around $83 for winning bets on Trump versus $135 for winning bets on Biden, making Biden the unequivocal underdog, Bovada shows.

What we're hearing: The expectation for Trump to triumph seems to largely reflect optimism about the economy once various state and local lockdown orders end, economists say.

"We can’t expect that the economy is going to be in very good shape, although the trajectory ought to be pretty positive by November," Steve Skancke, a former Treasury Department and Council on Economic Affairs official in the Carter and Reagan administrations, tells Axios.

As November approaches, it's "more than likely we’re going to see a positive stock market and there will be positive job growth," says Skancke, now chief economic advisor at wealth manager Keel Point. Between the lines: "The wildcard obviously is the virus and the [potential] vaccine," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Investor Service, tells Axios.

"And that’s a very significant wildcard both on the downside and the upside for people’s perceptions of how the president managed all this and how they’re going to vote in November."

Yes, but: Thus far Trump has not gotten the expected bump that comes from national catastrophes as Americans typically rally around the flag and the president, says Bernard Baumohl, chief economist at The Economic Outlook Group.

"These are times when the nation as a whole, the American people, will look to the president and the White House for policies that will get them out of this mess and all they’re seeing is rhetoric designed to get Trump re-elected," he tells Axios.

"He wants to see the economy be revived again but before it’s safe to do so. That I think is going to become somewhat catastrophic when the numbers start to pick up for that second wave" of infections.

The bottom line: The election is likely to be a referendum on how Trump handles the pandemic and whether his push to restart the economy got the U.S. back on track or drove a second wave of infections that did even more damage.

The moment hair sniffing dementia joe was pretending to be the nominee when Bernie decided to no longer campaign I predicted Trump would win a second term.

Betting markets had Republicans winning in 2018, too. They didn’t.

[quote] Let's not act like Biden is some moral authority or decent upstanding person. He's not. Biden is only a placeholder for the veep, who will takeover the Presidency when Biden resigns due to the 25th amendment.

Huh?

[quote] Betting markets had Republicans winning in 2018, too.

Link.

Yeah, but you're clearly a fucking moron, R127, so we know how much credence to place in your opinion.

[quote]Betting markets had Republicans winning in 2018, too. They didn’t.

I'm pretty sure that's wrong. See the linked Bloomberg article, for example. Another site had:

[quote]The current favourite outcome for the 2018 House midterms is a Democratic majority, according to Ladbrokes. The firm offers odds of 8/13 for this outcome compared to odds of 13/10 for a Republican majority. Odds of 50/1 are offered for no majority. The Republicans currently hold 238 seats ahead of the Democrats' 193.

[quote]He's not. Biden is only a placeholder for the veep, who will takeover the Presidency when Biden resigns due to the 25th amendment.

Just checking: are you genuinely this stupid or are you just playing stupid?

[quote]This is from AXIOS and so it has credibility

Um ... no.

We’re probably getting 4 more years of Trump. People are numb to him. Incumbents rarely lose and the coronavirus is seen as not his fault. The progressive wing hates Joe with a passion. It’s 2016 all over again. Bottom line, I’m prepared for another Trump victory.

As for the betting markets, it's not that simple. The linked article makes a good point that the markets are a bit schizophrenic right now. At the national level, the markets are giving a slight nod to Trump. But if you look at the markets for the swing states, the individual states add up to a Biden victory.

[quote]If we assigned electoral votes to parties just based on the favorites, here’s how the electoral college would look like according to Ladbrokes…

Democrat: 290

Republican: 219

Toss-Up: 29

[quote]We’re probably getting 4 more years of Trump.

Not according to pretty much all of the available data. Trump is in the worst shape of any incumbent in decades.

[quote]and the coronavirus is seen as not his fault.

That is also not correct. His handling of the coronavirus absolutely is his fault, and that will only get worse as the death toll rises.

[quote]It’s 2016 all over again.

I'm sorry but anyone who compares 2016 to 2020 is a fool.

Oh, you are indeed a fool, R135, based on some of your posts. Or a troll.

[quote]What happened to Biden? Did he really deteriorate that much in one year?

[quote]he burst a blood vessel in his eye on television and looks like the walking dead.

[quote]We’re getting dangerously close to the gay community leaving the Democratic Party. It’s literally becoming the Republican Party of the early 90s.

[quote]We’re getting 4 more years of Trump. Americans are dumb and Democrats haven’t a clue. He’ll get impeached a second time.

[quote]Democrats will blame the coronavirus and conspiracies as to why Biden bombed. It’ll be even worse than Hillary.

[quote]Whether or not it's true, the videos of Biden touching women and children in a creepy manner are everywhere. That, on top of everyone believing he has dementia is going to sink him.

[quote]Democrats did it to themselves. They pushed believe the women.

[quote]You’re in for a rude awakening come November.

[quote]538 = Nate Silver, which means this doesn’t mean shit.

[quote]Polls are irrelevant now. There have been numerous article about studies showing that the methodology is outdated and just doesn’t work anymore.

[quote]The public truly believes he’s mentally incompetent and now a sexual predator.

I always wonder why there are poster here like R135. What's the objective?

Good question, R139. You could ask the same thing of R140, who is much the same in terms of the stupidity of their posts.

I don't suppose it really matters whether they're posting stupid shit because they're a sociopathic troll, or because they're a paid troll, or because they're deeply partisan, or because they're genuinely stupid. Regardless of which it is, you still end up with stupid shit. R140's posting history is just about as stupid as R135's.

Joe Biden's piece today in The Washington Post:

“If Trump and his team understand how critical testing is to their safety — and they seem to, given their own behavior — why are they insisting that it’s unnecessary for the American people?”

[quote] I'm afraid Joe and his handlers have spent far too much of that year hiding deep underground waiting for the "all clear" siren.

Right. He should be out there among the people encouraging them to get back to work.

Without masks or tests, of course. Because MAGA!

R137 was the one who told everyone to shut up who dared say that Hillary had real problems and would probably lose. DL never learns. It lives in a bubble.

R138, I don’t know what your point is beyond you not being able to handle anyone who doesn’t agree with you. I have been consistently right with every election since 2000. I know this country inside and out. Get out of WeHo.

R144, tell me, does randomly making up shit work on the other forums you frequent? Because it really doesn't work here on DL. Writing a dishonest attack when you've been called out on your stupid bullshit doesn't make your stupid bullshit any less stupid. It just makes you look even more a fool.

[quote]I don’t know what your point is

LOL.... Of course you don't. Heaven forbid that you actually try to defend any of those genuinely stupid remarks. You can't, of course, which is why you will continue to play these obvious, and silly, games.

R147, some are opinions others are factual. 538 is irrelevant. Nate Silver and co don’t know shit.

R146 is triggered. Poor thing. Hopefully come November he’ll off himself.

It's true that incumbent Presidents have enormous advantages, and it's also true that many people still think Trump will in November.

But as Harry Enten wrote this past week:

1. Biden's lead is the steadiest on record since at least 1944.

2. People also thought the Republicans would keep the House in 2018.

Tell me, r149, does randomly making up shit work on the other forums you frequent? Because it really doesn't work here on DL.

[quote]some are opinions others are factual. 538 is irrelevant. Nate Silver and co don’t know shit.

Nothing you wrote was "factual," including that comment about Silver. You cannot defend anything you've written, on this thread or any other, so you will continue to attack and play silly games. It's all you've got.

The reason that the comparisons between 2016 and 2020 are so foolish is that you have to ignore the actual election results from 2017, 2018, 2019, and even 2020 to pretend that this is the case. Democratic turnout has been way up, we had a seven percentage point blue wave in 2018, we are winning in blue states, purple states, and even red states.

To blindly wish all of that away is to demonstrate that you you either have an agenda or that you are indeed a fool.

Oh, but see, PollTroll, none of that matters because "Nate Silver and co don’t know shit" and "Trumpsters don't participate in polls" and "Polls are irrelevant now."

[quote]But as Harry Enten wrote this past week:

Harry Enten is nobody. Stop posting his crap. Nobody even knows who the fuck he is. He sounds like Bernie's retarded son when he speaks.

[quote]Democratic turnout has been way up, we had a seven percentage point blue wave in 2018, we are winning in blue states, purple states, and even red states.

Americans come out in droves for presidential elections. It's not the same thing. Republicans will be flooding the polls. The more people see and hear Biden speak the more turned off they are. He would have been a great candidate in 2016. He just sounds like a guy who's lost his marbles now. There's a reason why they have him in lockdown and it ain't the coronavirus. The only way Trump loses is if he drops dead. Americans are by and large fascist pricks. This is exactly the reason Trump appeals to them. China has put nationalism back in play - that is Trump's strong suit. It's also the perfect distraction for him. He'll get people are riled up about China, thus making people less upset about his incompetence. He's a master at this because he's as dumb as the typical America. He speaks their language and their bigotry.

[quote]Nothing you wrote was "factual," including that comment about Silver. You cannot defend anything you've written, on this thread or any other, so you will continue to attack and play silly games. It's all you've got.

Right, let's gloss over the fact that Silver has been consistently wrong for the past 5 years and is now a political commentator. Get the fuck outta here.

Oops. I'm guessing dumb fuck/r151 is actually Silver himself.

[quote] Americans come out in droves for presidential elections.

Which advantages Democrats. Do you even think before you type something?

Is squinting or wearing sunglasses supposed to hide the dementia eyes?

[quote] the dementia

This bullshit accusation can only make sense to someone who has NO FUCKING CLUE what dementia actually looks like.

I fear troubles ahead with Biden. 'Hope I'm wrong.

We Americans are like moths to the flame anymore.

[quote]Harry Enten is nobody. Stop posting his crap. Nobody even knows who the fuck he is. He sounds like Bernie's retarded son when he speaks.

LOL... You really have no idea what you're talking about, do you? It's rare to find someone so determinedly proud of their ignorance and so determined to show it off on a regular basis.

[quote]Americans come out in droves for presidential elections. It's not the same thing.

Yes, they do, and Democrats always do better in Presidential years. Which means that "coming out in droves" in 2017, 2018, 2018, and 2020 means that Democrats are likely to do even better this November. You're really not very bright, are you?

[quote]Republicans will be flooding the polls.

Uh-huh. They did that in 2018 and Democrats still clobbered them.

[quote]The more people see and hear Biden speak the more turned off they are.

You do realize that this statement is completely false, right? Out of idle curiosity, why do you feel like randomly making up shit is an effective tactic when everyone knows that you're making up shit?

[quote]He just sounds like a guy who's lost his marbles now.

Like I said....

[quote]There's a reason why they have him in lockdown and it ain't the coronavirus.

You do realize that Biden is meeting people (virtually) every day, right? You really have no idea what you're talking about.

[quote]The only way Trump loses is if he drops dead.

Uh-huh, you just keep telling yourself that.

[quote]Right, let's gloss over the fact that Silver has been consistently wrong for the past 5 years

Like everything else you've written, that is not a "fact." You really have no idea about the difference between fact and opinion, do you? And you have no understanding at all of statistics and their use (or, in your case, misuse).

[quote]Which advantages Democrats. Do you even think before you type something?

The evidence suggests that he doesn't, R158. He really has no idea what he's talking about and he's just flailing away because he's been called on his bullshit and he doesn't know how to handle it. Well, other than to attack and to double down on the bullshit.

And, for the icing on the cake, had he bothered to read what he linked in r157, he would have seen that what that article was complaining about was not Silver's statistical analysis, nor his pollster ratings, nor his projections: they were complaining about his politics. So he struck out there, as well, likely because he can't read.

Why is Biden doing absolutely nothing to campaign for this position? He's been silent for weeks. If he wants to be President he's playing very hard to get.

Trump is making it so easy right now to look good opposite him. Why isn't Biden doing this? I'm really baffled.

Sadly, R166, we can count on Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory -- what should be a lock may be a debacle. Again. Not liking things.

[quote] Why is Biden doing absolutely nothing to campaign for this position? He's been silent for weeks. If he wants to be President he's playing very hard to get.

Factually incorrect.

[quote] Trump is making it so easy right now to look good opposite him. Why isn't Biden doing this? I'm really baffled.

Never interfere with an enemy while he’s in the process of destroying himself.

Biden just ain't gonna make it. This man will NOT get us across the finish line :(

[quote]Why is Biden doing absolutely nothing to campaign for this position? He's been silent for weeks. If he wants to be President he's playing very hard to get.

That's not true. He's basically been doing things everyday. The challenge is breaking the news cycle. However, I don't think that this is such a bad thing. The longer that Biden is out of sight it just gives Trump more rope to hang himself. Besides all Republicans want to do at this point is to define him as incompetent this taking the spotlight off of their incompetent guy.

[quote] Biden just ain't gonna make it. This man will NOT get us across the finish line :(

Why? What's your great concern?

Out of gas, decrepitude, he's probably dirty, apt to pander with a poor choice of running mate -- for starters.

So things you are imagining or have no way of predicting? Yeah, not very strong argument you have there, concern troll.

Goddam right I'm concerned, and you better be too, junior.

I'm concerned. But I'm not a concern troll who makes up shit to be concerned about to scare other people.

I have eyes to see, same as you.

[quote]Why is Biden doing absolutely nothing to campaign for this position? He's been silent for weeks.

Um, have you really not done even a 30-second Google search to show you that this is false? He's been giving daily briefings and regular virtual town hall meetings. What more do you want him to do?

[quote]I have eyes to see, same as you.

They would work better if you actually opened them.

"Regular virtual" -- nows who's out of touch here?

Biden is a guaranteed loser for the Democrats in November. Somebody better pop up who can get the job done or we're headed for DISASTER.

[quote]The longer that Biden is out of sight it just gives Trump more rope to hang himself.

Yup. You and R168 have it exactly right. Trump really *should* be coasting to a victory this fall. Any competent politician would be milking this opportunity for all it's worth. The incumbent has two advantages here: people want to rally around the leader in terms of crisis and the leader sucks up all of the oxygen in the room, getting all of the media attention.

Other national leaders, state leaders, city leaders are all seeing their approval ratings shoot up, and most of them stay there. Trump got about a 3-point boost and it's already evaporated. All he had to do was deliver a national speech of unity, show some fake empathy, then get out of the way and let the experts take the reins. He couldn't do that and he's in the process of killing his own reelection chances.

Let me guess...your eyes proved to you that Clinton was a day away from death last summer too.

[quote]"Regular virtual" -- nows who's out of touch here?

You, apparently, since you seem to be thinking that Biden should be hosting national rallies during a pandemic.

[quote]Biden is a guaranteed loser for the Democrats in November. Somebody better pop up who can get the job done or we're headed for DISASTER.

You know, stating something in ALL CAPS doesn't make it any more true. It just makes you look more foolish.

[quote] Biden is a guaranteed loser for the Democrats in November. Somebody better pop up who can get the job done or we're headed for DISASTER.

CONCERN!! CONCERN CONCERN CONCERN CONCERN CONCERN!!!!

But, what I don't understand R175 is what are the alternative(s) that you are presenting. Let's assume that there are some of us here that are being swayed by your rhetoric. What are you suggesting as an alternative action?

176 days left.

I voted for Hillary -- I was a happy- clappy, good Democrat -- and I had my FUCKING HEAD HANDED TO ME. I learned from that naive stupidity. I DEMAND hard-headed choices from ice-cold strategists.

Biden has dementia! Sorry...

So, what is the alternative that you are suggesting, R188?

[quote] What are you suggesting as an alternative action?

Not making up shit to be concerned about?

[quote] Biden has dementia! Sorry...

Like this from this mother fucker.

Biden is going t blow it for us. He's too old, too out of it, too loopy.

Had my fill of that with Trumpy.

Other comments from R188:

[quote]Our new President with dementia already. At least Reagan started with reasonable mental health...

[quote]Biden has dementia! Sorry...

[quote]Joe isn't going to win. He might not get the nomination. He has dementia. Everyone knows it..

[quote]If they have an opportunity to debate, Biden is done,

[quote]Everyone knows this is an opportunity to continue the attack on Trump. They are now using the Covid19. The Dems want to slow the opening of the economy so it hurts Trump. The Dems would like to see our economy crippled and millions lose there jobs to achieve their objective. It's funny that 60,000 die each year from the flu with a vaccine! How many would die without one????

[quote]I am gay and a republican. The reason is because if you are financially successful you should be. Anyone IMHO who is a democrat (unless the stupid billionaires) is a financial looser. They want something for nothing. That has nothing to do with my sexuality.

I don't think this is someone we should take seriously, given these hilariously stupid remarks.

[quote] He's too old, too out of it, too loopy.

So you are just going to stick to the Rightwing talking points then.

Concern troll is terribly, terribly concerned. And persistent. And rather ignorant.

[quote]Is squinting or wearing sunglasses supposed to hide the dementia eyes?

[quote]I fear troubles ahead with Biden. 'Hope I'm wrong.

[quote]We Americans are like moths to the flame anymore.

[quote]Sadly, R166, we can count on Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory -- what should be a lock may be a debacle. Again. Not liking things.

[quote]Biden just ain't gonna make it. This man will NOT get us across the finish line :(

[quote]Out of gas, decrepitude, he's probably dirty, apt to pander with a poor choice of running mate -- for starters.

[quote]Goddam right I'm concerned, and you better be too, junior.

[quote]I have eyes to see, same as you.

[quote]"Regular virtual" -- nows who's out of touch here?

[quote]Biden is a guaranteed loser for the Democrats in November. Somebody better pop up who can get the job done or we're headed for DISASTER.

[quote]I voted for Hillary -- I was a happy- clappy, good Democrat -- and I had my FUCKING HEAD HANDED TO ME. I learned from that naive stupidity. I DEMAND hard-headed choices from ice-cold strategists.

[quote]Biden is going t blow it for us. He's too old, too out of it, too loopy.

[quote]Had my fill of that with Trumpy.

There’s about two Bernie/Warren trolls here. Block them and it’s much nicer.

Apparently, Trump thinks that we will hear about our "Transition Into Greatness" a lot for the next few months.

[quote]"we will transition into greatness. That’s a phrase you’re gonna hear a lot."

Concern troll knows a loser when he sees one, sparky. Hate to burst your bubble. Better now than in December, like lat time -- when it really hurts.

November*

[quote] Better now than in December

Yeah...we'll see in December!

Wait. When's the election?

Based on his posts here, "Concern Troll" doesn't know shit, "Sparky." See you in December.

Who's the one with dementia, r198/r199?

I know we have to have trolls, since this is an anonymous unmoderated forum, but my lord, do they have to be so fucking stupid?

Like we aren't all bedeviled with the auto-correct. Pfft.

Keep President Obama’s words in mind.

Auto-correct changed November to December? You really are a loon.

You gotta love that the same tard we had here in 2016 who told everyone to shut up, that there was no way Hillary was going to lose is now doing the same with Biden. Just ignore this idiot. Let them copy and paste everyone’s previous posts which prove nothing but consistency in views. The rest of us can and will deal with reality and don’t feel the need to have our heads buried in the sand.

^^^^ Says the guy who told us Clinton was inches away from death Summer 2016.

HAHAHAHAHA, yep.

NO to Biden, NO to political dynasties, NO group to think! DEMAND BETTER, DEMOCRATS and DiSGUSTED-WITH-TRUMP REPUBLICANS!

NO to group* etc -- okay I have been drinking lol

[quote]You gotta love that the same tard we had here in 2016 who told everyone to shut up, that there was no way Hillary was going to lose

You gotta love that the same tard who cannot defend his "consistent views" has to go on random attacks, making shit up, rather than dealing with reality. Let them attack, let them show just how foolish they are. The rest of us can and will deal with reality and don't feel the need to have our heads buried in the sand.

By the way, oh "realist": your points above have all been demolished as the foolish shit that they are, in posts you have no answer for. You know you got your ass handed to you, which is why you're playing these silly games, and will continue to play these silly games.

[quote]NO to Biden, NO to political dynasties, NO group to think! DEMAND BETTER, DEMOCRATS and DiSGUSTED-WITH-TRUMP REPUBLICANS!

Our trolls aren't getting any better at their English skills, are they?

[quote] NO to group* etc -- okay I have been drinking lol

I'd drink too if I was as big an idiot as you.

Oh name calling? Sticks and stones...

[quote] Oh name calling? Sticks and stones...

Yeah, you get back to me when I type the sort of nonsense Mr. Tipsy does.

Everybody is just gonna run out to the polling booths or send in their ballots and vote for the Anointed One in protest of Trump? Replace one-out-of-it weirdo with another one? It'll be just that simple? Then we deserve to lose for such naiveté. And we will, sadly.

Biden being selected reminds me of when the republicans picked Bob Dole to run against Bill Clinton

Please do go on. Tell us all how Biden will be just as bad as Trump. Tell us all the terrible things Biden will do which equal Trump.

And then explain your alternative plan.

I aver, Biden will not and can not get us across the finish line in November.

So you've said, R220, repeatedly. Over and over and over again. Unfortunately, you haven't been able to come up with any particular reason why Biden cannot win in November. You've simply "averred" it. Over and over and over again.

Repeating does not make you more right.

Well you aver it it must be true.

[quote]Biden being selected reminds me of when the republicans picked Bob Dole to run against Bill Clinton

That might almost make sense except for one teensy little problem: Trump ain't Bill Clinton. Not even close. You're going to need to try harder.

I've stated my reasons as well. Goodbye. I'm going to get on the couch now and watch a movie.

[quote]Everybody is just gonna run out to the polling booths or send in their ballots and vote for the Anointed One in protest of Trump?

"Anointed One?" You really are kinda stupid, aren't you? And yes, there is a slightly better than even chance that this is exactly what they will do, given just how disliked Trump is. And, so far, you haven't been able to come up with a single reason why this isn't the case.

The 2020 election will be a referendum on Trump, not on Biden.

[quote]I've stated my reasons as well.

And haven't backed up a single one.

Bye, Felicia. Enjoy tonight's viewing of Triumph of the Will or whatever Nazi propaganda you have lined up.

Look, if you want to argue that Trump has a slightly better than even chance to win in November, that's not an unreasonable point of view. He does have the power of incumbency and, right now, anyway, he's got all of the attention on him. If the number of cases and deaths come down, if the cities and states opening up don't lead to a second wave, if the economy at least starts back onto a better track, then yeah, Trump can win. I don't think anyone here would deny it, even though, personally, I think the probability lies in the other direction and that Biden has a slightly better than even chance to win.

What we're mostly protesting about, and laughing at, is the notion that Trump is an absolute lock to win. Given the facts we have today, it's a ludicrous assertion, an assertion backed up by nothing more than wishful thinking.

This election will almost certainly be close. Each of the candidates has a virtual lock on about 45% of the voters. Throw in a few percent for the third-party candidates and the candidates are fighting over something like 7% of the voters in half a dozen swing states. Absent some new revelation, neither candidate is going to win a landslide, either in the electoral vote or the popular vote. Given that, anyone confidently predicting November's outcome right now (in either direction) is a complete fool.

[quote] That might almost make sense except for one teensy little problem: Trump ain't Bill Clinton. Not even close. You're going to need to try harder

Did I say trump was like Clinton? No, I did NOT. That's you imagining all kinds of stuff. It's just that Dole was nothing to get excited about. Biden is the same

Presidents get elected by running against people, r228. Your comparison makes no sense if Clinton isn't parallel to Trump.

Biden is in a stronger position than Dole was in 1996. Dole was behind Clinton throughout the year of 1996, whereas Biden leads Trump at this point in 2020.

R230 lol, 1996 and 2020? 24 years apart, won't waste my time on how things have changed from 1990s to 2020, you are indeed a troll🤪

Timeline

[quote]lol, 1996 and 2020? 24 years apart, won't waste my time on how things have changed from 1990s to 2020, you are indeed a troll

Wow.... that's really stunning in its ignorance. The PollTroll didn't make the original comparison; that was R218. The PT was simply making the point that Biden is in a stronger position now than Dole was then. Pretending that this doesn't matter because "things have changed from 1990s to 2020" just brands you as a remarkably obtuse individual.

Fight for the soul of America?? Hahahahahahahaha

[quote]If the number of cases and deaths come down, if the cities and states opening up don't lead to a second wave, if the economy at least starts back onto a better track, then yeah, Trump can win.

None of that will happen. It's only going to get worse - probably sooner than later. There will be the revenge of Mother's Day, when all the infection that spread kicks in in five to fourteen days. Follow that with the summer of open wide... the pointless death and illness that's going to wash over the country will make the last couple of months look like a case of the sniffles.

The vast majority of dumb Americans will blame China and not Trump for this. We’ve been saying that the economy would crumble, WWIII would break out, Trump would step down, etc. It just doesn’t happen. He’s Teflon. He’ll up the nationalist rhetoric and Americans will buy it hook, line and sinker. Biden won’t go there.

There aren't enough "dumb Americans" to reelect Trump, R236. Trump has doubled down on his base and they aren't enough. He is neither interested in, nor capable of, expanding that base. He has doubled down on the racism, the grievance, the whining. His base has lapped it all up and begged for more; the rest of the voters not so much.

The elections of the past few years have shown that Republicans have lost the suburbs, have lost white women, and, per recent polls, are even losing older voters. They're down to just one core constituency: white men. They have made some gains there but the evidence to date suggest that it's not enough to offset the losses elsewhere.

There were some early attempts to try to win back some of the Democratic constituencies, including the Jewish vote, the Catholic vote, the Hispanic vote, even the gay vote, but those attempts have, so far, all failed and have mostly petered out, largely because Trump isn't interested.

So when you talk about "the vast majority of Americans," I have to ask you just where that "vast majority" is. Because they sure didn't show up for Republicans in 2017, 2018, 2019, or even earlier this year.

The Republican strategy was clear before this all began:

1. The economy. They haven't done shit to actually improve the economy but they were counting on voters not knowing that.

2. Fear, mostly with respect to immigration, MS-13, invading caravans, crisis at the Southern border, etc.

3. Socialism. "Omigod!!!! Democrats are trying to turn us into Communist China!!!!" "Omigod!!!! Look at Venezuela!!!!"

4. Voter suppression, doing everything in their power to stop Democratic constituencies from voting, including new rules for registration, throwing people off of the voting rolls, reducing early voting, reducing polling stations in Democratic neighborhoods, etc.

The events of 2020 have thrown all that out the window.

1. They can't run on the economy because the economy is in the toilet and there is every sign that this will continue to be the case for months.

2. Immigration fear didn't work in 2018 and there are no signs that it will work in 2020, particularly now, with the voters having other things on their minds.

3. With Biden as the nominee, it's going to be damn difficult for them to run on "Socialism!!!!!" And even tougher when Democratic candidates point out just how much help it would be to not have to worry about medical costs during these times.

4. They absolutely will double down on the voter suppression, which is why they're fighting so hard to block vote-by-mail.

So what is the Republican strategy that will guarantee a Trump victory? Blaming everything on China? Even if you assume that China did everything that Trump claimed, it's still on him that he handled everything so badly, leading to so many deaths and so much unemployment. I don't see the majority of voters reelecting Trump just because he said, "China did it!" So where will he pick up the extra votes he needs?

Oh, it figures. R236 is the same "tard" above who had his ass handed to him with the rest of his lame arguments. So now he's trying a new one, which isn't any more compelling than any of the rest.

Personally, I really loved it when it was pointed out to him that Democratic turnout has been way up in the midterm and off-cycle elections. His response? "Americans come out in droves for presidential elections."

Yeah, they do, and that always benefits Democrats. Democratic voters are famous for turning out every four years but not turning out other years. So "coming out in droves" this year will benefit Biden, not Trump, but this idiot didn't know that.

Yet it might not be as bad as it might seem for Trump, as it’s possible that perceptions about the prospects for recovery will be more important than the current downturn. The media tends to focus more on the economy’s future anyway and less on current economic conditions. So if the economy seems headed toward recovery after the worst of the crisis, that might play favorably in the court of public opinion. Not to mention, voters tend to take a more holistic view of the economy, accounting for as much as two years of past economic performance when voting in presidential contests — which could be good for Trump, as the economy had been pretty good for most of his time in office.

Nonetheless, the economy still might not be the most important factor in the November election: It could be primarily about Trump himself. “All the evidence seems to point to referendum judgments mattering a lot more when there’s an incumbent than when there’s not,” Wlezien said. In fact, there is evidence that vote choice is unaffected by economic attitudes if an incumbent president is running. According to political science research, voter assessments of the economy are too closely linked to perceptions of the president and don’t make that much of a difference, which, again, brings us back to partisanship and Trump’s steady approval rating.

If there is evidence of economic recovery by the fall, the huge partisan gap in attitudes toward the economy may return to pre-crisis levels. And with that, the election might look much like it did only a few weeks ago: Democrats overwhelmingly supporting the Democratic nominee and Republicans overwhelmingly supporting Trump, with the economy not mattering much at all.

-538

There are multiple problems with that analysis, R240. The media may be looking ahead but if the voters a couple of months before the election are unemployed, struggling to pay the rent, to put food on the table, then a rosy forecast for 2021 is not likely to be very compelling. The article you cited is from a month ago before the full extent of the damage was known. Heck, the full extent of the damage *still* isn't known. There aren't very many people who think that we're in for a quick recovery.

And even the author of that article had to admit, in the paragraph before your quote began:

[quote]But even though views of the economy are filtered through partisan views, we have recently seen that they aren’t completely immune to bad news. The latest poll from The Economist/YouGov found that the share of Republicans who felt the economy was getting better had fallen 32 points, from 70 percent in early March to 38 percent. Only 7 percent of Democrats said it was getting better. That was in line with previous polls, but the drop in Republican expectations of the economy could be a bad omen for Trump. If Republicans’ economic expectations sour enough, some of them might disapprove of Trump despite partisan attachments to him.

Nobody here is claiming that Biden is a lock to win, unlike the concern trolls who are making the opposite argument. This is going to be a close election with a deeply divided, extremely polarized electorate. Neither candidate is guaranteed to win or to lose. But the evidence to date suggests that Biden is in pretty good shape and that Trump is in real trouble. Can Trump still win? Of course he can. Is it a lock? Fuck no. Not even close.

There will be a second wave. Maybe a third. The markets will head for the hills and stay there until there's a vaccine. That won't be in time for November. I have no doubt the Republicans will fight tooth and nail to do whatever they can to stave this off, but it is hard to imagine anything that would happen before November to turn the tide for them.

Former NBC Executive Tom Rogers Suggests Biden Not Ready for ‘Prime Time’: ‘I Really Fear a Crisis’ for Him if He Can’t Articulate Better

Former NBC executive Tom Rogers revealed his fears that 2020 Democratic presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden is not “ready for prime time election season,” Monday, calling his performances to date “very unsatisfying” and his messages on the coronavirus not “very convincing.”

Rogers — currently editor at large with Newsweek — appeared on MSNBC’s Morning Joe to discuss his latest column: “Words Matter. And Joe Biden Needs to Use His Better.”

“Trump has been dominating the media as we all know and Biden has not been in the spotlight, but that is going to shift, and when it shifts Biden needs to perform,” declared Rogers, adding, “The bottom line is the candidate needs to able to articulate a clear and convincing message and particularly when it comes to the pandemic, what my piece says is he’s not there yet.”

“It pains me to say this, it really does, but his performance in being able to come up with a compelling narrative and a passionate story line that really is ready for prime time election season — when it comes to talking about the legacy of Donald Trump, of mass death and economic collapse — he’s just not there yet,” Rogers continued. “His performances have been very unsatisfying and basically he’s been getting softball interviews with the exception of yours, Mika, on the sexual harassment issue.”

Rogers went on to note that “Joe Biden is never going to be Obama or Clinton when it comes to being an orator, but when you listen to him on the pandemic, a lot of disconnected phrases, it doesn’t really come together in a very convincing message.”

“I really fear a crisis for the candidate if he cannot come up with a more convincing way and a more eloquent way to put out there exactly what the critique of Trump is during this crisis. It’s a problem.”

Concern troll is concerned. Film at 11.

Meanwhile, the Biden campaign has put out this ad, which does exactly what Rogers claims he wants.

In other words R243, what Rogers is saying is that Biden needs to "entertain" Isn't that the primary reason that we are in this predicament now?

[quote] Meanwhile, the Biden campaign has put out this ad,

That's all they can do is put out ads. Biden can't go out and talk, he's too mixed up and the sentence comes out wrong. It's sad.

I hope I'm wrong. I'd love to come back and say I'm wrong. But I don't think I am. I'm not a Bernie Bro or for Elizabeth Warren either

So therefore, what are you suggesting as a solution, R247?

This is why I don't trust polls and/or pollsters (sorry PollTroll) I believe most of them are paid off and will give you whatever you want;

Poll: Trump approval ticks up to 51 percent

President Trump's job approval ticks up to 51 percent, up 1 percentage point from two weeks ago, according to a new Hill-HarrisX poll.

In an April 19 survey, Donald Trump's job approval was at 50 percent among registered voters.

His approval has fluctuated only slightly throughout his presidency. Hill-HarrisX data shows his lowest recorded approval at 44 percent in a January 2019 survey and its highest approval at 52 percent in a April 2020 survey.

"President Trump's approval rating is one of the really fascinating and hard to understand or hard to park facets of modern American public opinion," Chris Jackson, Vice President of Ipsos, told Hill.TV.

"It has been remarkably stable over the last three years of his presidency with only moving a few percentage points up or down in any single moment in time despite a series of increasingly outlandish and wild events," he added.

Jackson cited the impeachment trial and the current coronavirus pandemic as one of these events in which the President has seen his historically steady approval rating hold.

The Hill-HarrisX poll was conducted online among 957 registered voters on May 6. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.17 percentage points.

—Gabriela Schulte

All Trump has to do is keep the rust belt states and he wins. The electoral college has helped fuck this country beyond belief.

[quote]That's all they can do is put out ads. Biden can't go out and talk, he's too mixed up and the sentence comes out wrong. It's sad.

Um, you do realize that blatantly lying like that doesn't work here, right?

[quote[I hope I'm wrong. I'd love to come back and say I'm wrong. But I don't think I am. I'm not a Bernie Bro or for Elizabeth Warren either

Okay, so you're either a garden-variety moron or you're a troll.

R250, sorry, but that's not true. Trump cannot win with just the rust belt states. Nor is he favored to win all of them. Biden has more paths to victory than Trump does.

R249, you're right that we need to be careful in how we read the polls this year -- I think all the polling analysts are going to be more cautious after 2016.

There does appear to be a small improvement in Trump's approval ratings. Harry Enten suggests that it may be a combination of the Tara Reade allegations combined with the effect of fewer Coronavirus Taskforce briefings.

Trump's net approval is now -7 instead of -10:

History

In 1976, voters passed the White House from Republican Gerald Ford to Democrat Jimmy Carter. Carter was not well-qualified for the job – he had been a one-term governor of Georgia – and he was hardly the most charismatic politician. What Carter had going for him was that he seemed strikingly honest and humble. In the average election year, honest and humble won’t get a candidate far, but this was a specific election, and in 1976, honest and humble were the most desired qualities. What voters hated most about the President they had elected last was Nixon’s corruption in pursuit of his own power. Voters were hungry for the honesty and humility Nixon so sorely lacked, and Carter had them in abundance.

Then, after four years of Carter being honest about the fact that he felt powerless to solve America’s problems, voters elected Republican Ronald Reagan, who projected all the self-confidence of John Wayne and the optimism that seemed a perfect antidote to Carter’s “Crisis of Confidence.”

The White House next changed parties in 1992. Republican George Bush was popular until the economy crashed, and voters didn’t see Bush trying very hard to solve it. Bush essentially told the American people not to worry our pretty little heads about it, that the problem wasn’t that bad and it would go away by itself. Democrat Bill Clinton worked hard to forge an economic plan of action endorsed by six Nobel Prize-winning economists. He held town halls where he convinced voters he felt their pain in that bad economy and he shared their desperation to end it. That made him the winner.

In 2000, the White House changed parties again, but that didn’t reflect the will of the voters so much as some malfunctioning election equipment and some political shenanigans. The next time voters chose to switch parties was in 2008. While George W. Bush was not on the ballot that year, he had set the stage for that election as surely as Nixon had set the stage for the Ford-Carter race. Bush was often viewed as a frat boy, showing little interest in knowing important details. Barack Obama’s personality was described most frequently as “professorial.” Bush had gotten us into a war that was growing unpopular, and Obama could boast he had opposed the war from day one. While technically, the choice was between Obama and John McCain, Obama was the one who most clearly contrasted against Bush, and the voters chose Obama.

The most recent party-switch was, of course, 2016, when we went from “No Drama Obama” to a man who is all drama all the time. That was no accident. Americans had spent eight years suffering through a sluggish economy under a president who never seemed particularly bothered. Donald Trump was a symbol of America’s frustration. Trump promised dramatic action, and he showed the intensity and the recklessness to deliver.

The Strategy for 2020

If Donald Trump is voted out of office in 2020, he will lose to someone who represents a counterbalance to the qualities voters most dislike about Trump.

Got to love the name calling from the incels on this thread. As usual, and as in all things incel, you can smell their desperation. Fuck your group think, you would-be apparatchiks. Someone open a window and blow their stink out lol.

Keep pushing Biden down our throats and we'll be sitting here chewing sausage again come November.

There's gonna be two ppl on the ballot for president R256. Biden and Trump. That is it. U wanna vote for that tool, Trump? Go ahead. U got grievances w the Democratic Nominee? Deal w it

Listen, I may be the concern troll but I sure as fuck ain't votin' for Trump, let's get that clear.

Biden is good. The man is charming.

r259, that was back when Biden could put a sentence together. That is not the Biden of today. He would have been great, and probably would have won, back in 2016.

Go Joe Biden

[quote] There's gonna be two ppl on the ballot for president [R256]. Biden and Trump. That is it.

There will be third-party candidates on the ballot.

Right now it looks like Republicans won 3 races in California tonight, #CA25, SD 28, and AD38. Two of them will flip from D to R.

Yeah, it looks like the Republicans will take back #CA25 which the Dems picked up in the 2018 Mideterms.

But Dave Wasserman says the Dems have a chance of winning it back in November:

[quote]Republicans are poised to pick up their first House seat in California since *1998.* But it could be short lived: higher turnout could help Dems win it back in November.

Katie Hill and her recklessness messed it up. Horrible

Turnout higher In November? Well they mailed out ballots to everyone this time.

Republicans brilliantly ran a young Latino military vote. Garcia ran great ads and was very shrewd.

A young military vet

New York Magazine

Trump’s Odds of Winning Reelection Are Higher Than You Think

[quote] Biden will likely need to win the popular vote by roughly three points to secure an Electoral College majority. Further, as the New York Times’s Nate Cohn notes, most national polls are of registered voters, not likely ones. And since the GOP’s older voting base still turns out more reliably than the Democrats’ younger one, “a reasonable estimate is that Mr. Biden is performing four or five points worse among likely voters in the critical states than he is among registered voters nationwide.”

Unprecedented conditions were already rendering the laws of political physics unreliable before the worst pandemic in a century hit our shores. The cause-and-effect relationship between economic performance and incumbent popularity was already falling a bit off-kilter. This does not mean that we should reject a premise as intuitive and historically validated as “if America descends into a depression, voters will punish the party in power.” But it does mean that we can’t take it as a given; or at least, we can’t assume that the penalty Trump will pay for the worsening economy will outstrip his structural advantages. In a world with fewer swing voters, a recession is likely to hurt Trump less than it would past incumbents. And Biden can win 3 percent more ballots this November and still lose the presidency.

Counting on the universe to give Donald Trump what he deserves may not be the safest bet.

[quote]And since the GOP’s older voting base still turns out more reliably than the Democrats’ younger one, “a reasonable estimate is that Mr. Biden is performing four or five points worse among likely voters in the critical states than he is among registered voters nationwide.”

But one factor that has changed since 2016 is that at the moment Biden is beating Trump with older voters (partially due to the coronavirus epidemic) and therefore the GOP can't necessarily expect older voters to turn out for them in the numbers they did in 2016.

Tom Tiffany, a state senator endorsed by President Donald Trump, easily won a special congressional election Tuesday in a heavily conservative, rural Wisconsin district, cheering Republicans even as Democrats argued the victory revealed vulnerabilities for the president among his base.

Tracking data shows a significant voting gap along generational lines in California special election.. Roughly 56% of voters 65 and older returned a mail ballot. Just 19% of those younger than 35 did so.

There’s a voting gap along ethnic lines, too: While 40% of white voters returned their mail ballots, only 21% of Latinos did so.

snip

If Mike Garcia's lead over Christy Smith holds, he'll become the only House Republican from a district Hillary Clinton won with more than 50% of the vote.

If the Garcia pulls this off, this would be the first D seat that flips R in CA since 1998.

lazy Democratic voters at it again I see. Oh can't be bothered to vote it's not November! fucking pathetic

hopefully this isn't a sign of things to come in the fall

100.0% Precincts Reporting Semi-official Canvass Period May 12, 2020 - May 13, 2020

Christy Smith (Party Preference: DEM) 62,456 44.0% Mike Garcia (Party Preference: REP) 79,543 56.0%

This district is a warning to Democrats. Just because a District swing Democratic in 2018 doesn’t mean it will be so now. Our voters are still not voting at the rates we need them too. People of color and young people are still far too unmotivated to vote for Democrats. And we can’t take risks on bad candidates. Voters will not show up for us if we don’t nominate great, charismatic candidate. Republicans are nominating good candidates for their districts, often people of color and veterans.

🚨

GOP polling firm @POStrategies has the presidential race in Georgia neck and neck

Biden: 47 Trump: 46

Registered Democrats now outnumber registered Republicans in all 4 Philadelphia collar counties -

Thanks for sharing, R277 & 278.

That’s encouraging.

Would better handle...

Health care: Biden 54% (+12) Trump 42%

The response to the coronavirus outbreak: Biden 51% (+6) Trump 45%

@CNN 5/7-10 Wow 😳

This morning: Biden and Sanders roll out the members of the 6 Unity Task Forces that will offer recommendations to the DNC platform cmte and to Biden. Includes @johnkerry, @EricHolder, @vivek_murthy, @aoc, @RepJayapal, @rweingarten, @econjared, @StephanieKelton.

Ugh. Thanks a lot, Katie!

SHOCK CNN POLL: Trump Leads Biden By 7 Points in the Battleground States,

A new poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump in a standoff over their national support and their momentum in battleground states.

A CNN study conducted by SRSS found that 51 percent of national registered voters back Biden, while 46 percent are behind Trump. This is a 2 percent drop for Biden since the poll had him at 53 percent in April while the president has jumped up 4 percent from his previous rating of 42.

The poll featured an oversampling of registered voters living in battleground states, and the findings among that subset indicate that Trump is leading Biden 52 percent to 45. Trump has the edge among male voters, independents, and white people, though Biden has a slight edge with women voters, even though several of the poll’s demographic findings fell within the margin of error.

The poll seems to have horrible methodology

[quote] Trump Leads Biden By 7 Points in the Battleground States,

This was expected. During the primaries, most of the focus was on candidates other than Biden. Now that he’s the presumptive nominee, the focus is on him.

As Nate Cohn pointed out yesterday, the CNN poll is flawed because it's a national poll with unbalanced battleground subsamples:

But, (IMHO), the following is what we're going to have to guard against;

U.S.

DONALD TRUMP THANKS 'MY KEYBOARD WARRIORS' AS HIS ARMY OF TROLLS AND MEME MAKERS PREPARE FOR BATTLE IN 2020 ELECTION

BY JAMES WALKER ON 5/15/20 AT 4:40 AM EDT

President Donald Trump praised his "great keyboard warriors" on Thursday night as pro-Trump meme makers and social media personalities have prepared for the 2020 presidential election.

The commander-in-chief said his army of online supporters were "far more brilliant" than anyone working in the advertising industry.

Posting on social media, the president said: "Thank you to all of my great Keyboard Warriors. You are better, and far more brilliant, than anyone on Madison Avenue (Ad Agencies). There is nobody like you!"

At the time of writing, his late-night tweet has been liked and retweeted more than 150,000 times.

Responding to the president's post, Trump supporters on the platform shared edited clips of the president performing professional wrestling moves on former Vice President Joe Biden and the CNN network.

Several others also shared memes featuring Pepe the Frog, a cartoon character that has appeared in some bigoted meme content, but is mostly used in non-bigoted ways, according to the Anti-Defamation League.

"We will always support you, Mr. President!!" the author Nick Adams said in response to the Trump's tweet.

"There's a digital information war going on and too few people realize it," the music video producer Robby Starbuck tweeted. "The warriors on the right are the best of the best though and won't ever cede ground to the far left socialists who want to destroy this great country."

Jenna Ellis, a legal adviser to the president's re-election campaign, tweeted: "ARMY FOR TRUMP!"

Trump thanked his army of "great keyboard warriors" on Twitter as some of the president's meme-making supporters on the platform began ratcheting viral content attacking the president's biggest political rivals over the Michael Flynn case.

One pro-Trump "memesmith" with almost 250,000 followers, Carpe Donktum, has posted a handful of videos using the "#ObamaGate" hashtag over the last few days—including one depicting the president as the superhero Iron Man.

Another meme shared by Turning Point USA's Chief Creative Officer Benny Johnson on Thursday depicted Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton being led away in handcuffs by law enforcement officials.

The White House staffer Dan Scavino also re-posted a doctored video from the user "@mad_liberals" on Thursday that showed Trump delivering the president's speech from the 1996 film Independence Day.

President Trump has repeatedly shown appreciation for the work of his online supporters and pro-Trump meme makers.

Aside from sharing their content on his own account, the commander-in-chief invited some to the White House last year.

Speaking to Fox News' Media Angle in February, Carpe Donktum said: "On July 3, 2019, President Trump invited me and my family to the White House and I also brought along a friend and his mother.

"We hung out in the Oval for about 25 minutes and chatted with the president. It was an amazing experience none of us will ever forget."

The economy tanked in last weeks jobs reports. Trump may tut his own horn all he wants but ain't no normal person making money in capitalistic America, except for the uber rich. Trump's economy will take 4, 5 years to escape from. Yo, take responsibility for your own failures! Management 101

Justin Amash will not launch third-party bid for president

By Liz Turrell, CNN

Updated 2:09 PM ET, Sat May 16, 2020

(CNN)Michigan Rep. Justin Amash has announced that he will not run for president as a third party candidate.

"After much reflection, I've concluded that circumstances don't lend themselves to my success as a candidate for president this year, and therefore I will not be a candidate," he tweeted Saturday. Amash announced last month that he was exploring a presidential run as a Libertarian Party candidate.

This is a breaking story and will be updated.

The Atlantic

Biden’s Virtual Campaign Is a Disaster

The candidate has reached the peak of his career in the rec room of his basement, talking into a computer

They say that if you live long enough, you’ll get to experience nearly everything, and so it has been for Joe Biden, who has lived to see history’s first Zoom presidential campaign. Unfortunately for him, it’s his.

Nobody looks good on Zoom—or FaceTime or Skype or any of the other online simulacra of human interaction that the lockdown has forced upon us. It diminishes all the distractions and intangibles that give life texture and zest, that make life seem rather pleasanter than it is. Did anyone fully understand just how unfunny late-night talk-show hosts are—take your pick; I pick Stephen Colbert—until the pandemic forced them online and deprived them of the Pavlovian and highly implausible laughter of their studio audiences? So too with political campaigns.

What is a presidential candidate without cheering crowds, balloon drops, overbearing music, a stage choked with grinning sycophants? Or without a dour Jim Lehrer or even a Larry King prodding him with uncomfortable questions face-to-face ?

Now we know the answer. Last week, as Biden remained confined to his Delaware home, his campaign took to YouTube to put on a virtual rally. It’s still available online, though in truncated, buttoned-up, highly edited form. When it was unfolding in real time, it was messier.

The party chair, a delighted woman named Terrie Rizzo, was first to appear on-screen, though she seemed not to know it at the outset, sitting in silence with a wide smile creasing her face for several uncomfortable seconds until she received an off-camera signal to commence. She responded with unmistakable vigor. Her voice and mouth were unsynchronized, however, and the choppy connection dropped every fifth or sixth syllable. “Let– g– to wrk! Go Joe!”

A rally needs music. “Ladies and gentleman,” said the disembodied announcer, “from Funkman Productions, DJ Jack Henriquez!” Soon the funkman was back with another song, “Ain’t No Stoppin’ Us Now,” a disco hit released 41 years ago, when Biden was entering his second term in the Senate.

And so it went, the blackouts, the indecipherable monologues, the speakers staring silently, endlessly, waiting for a prompt. I kept my eye on the viewer counter in the corner of the screen. From what I could tell, viewership peaked at 2,637 and then fell off a cliff as the technical troubles continued. The numbers rose a bit when, nearing the program’s end, the announcer spoke Biden’s name. The screen filled with a sunlit suburban room, and we saw a man in aviators approaching the camera from the glow of a patio. “Did they introduce me?” he asked, looking around. “Huh?”

The whole rally was, in short, a disaster—not a lasting or sizable one, but easily, in its comprehensiveness, the equal of any in my political experience, and I covered the 2016 Jeb Bush campaign.

That writer must be on Putin's payroll.

Video link:

Concern troll is concerned; wow, what a surprise. And he waits until the last sentence to point out that Trump isn't doing any better. And fails to point out that Biden is just fine where it counts and that Trump's press conferences have been disastrous for Trump.

Joe Biden@JoeBiden·1h

Defeating Donald Trump is going to take everything we've got. His campaign has been preparing for the last four years and has millions in the bank. I know times are tough, but if you can, please pitch in today to help us catch up: joe(dot)link/2X1lUGP

GOOD NEWS!

[quote]a campaign update from Biden's team on Friday in which aides sounded a confident note about the former vice president's prospects in November, saying he could secure upward of 318 electoral votes — more than the 270 needed to win the White House.

BUT, KEEP ON WORKING!

State polls suggest Biden has a clear national lead

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN

Updated 10:34 AM ET, Sun May 17, 2020

(CNN)Poll of the week: A new Marquette Law School poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 46% to 43% lead over President Donald Trump in Wisconsin.

The poll matches the last poll from Marquette, which also had Biden up by 3 points in Wisconsin. What's the point: One of the big questions when we look at national polls is whether or not they're an accurate representation of what is going on at the state level. One of the easiest ways to check is to compare state poll results to the past presidential vote in a given state. I did so for all telephone polls that called cell phones since the beginning of April.

When we average out these state polls, they suggest that Biden's running about 6 points ahead of Hillary Clinton's final margin.

In other words, the state level polls suggest that Biden has a national lead of around 8 points. That's actually a little greater than the 6.6 points Biden has in the high quality national polling average taken during the same period. I should note that if we weight the average of state polls to each state's population, we get a margin just north of that 6.6 point mark. (Weighting by population leaves us somewhat more susceptible to outlier polls, as we have fewer polls from the most populated states.)

EIther way, all methods agree that Biden has a fairly sizable national advantage.

Examining the state polls has the advantage of having a lot more data points to play with, so I feel fairly secure that they're giving us a decent snapshot. We're looking at more than 20 polls and more than 15,000 interviews. The aggregate margin of error is small.

Additionally, we can look at states we expect to be at least somewhat competitive (i.e. those where the margin was within 10 points last time) and those that we don't think will be close in 2020. In the competitive states (where most of the state polling has been conducted), there has been an average swing of 6 points toward Biden compared to Clinton's 2016 result. The same is true in the non-competitive states.

At least from this state level data, it does not seem that either candidate is running up the score disproportionately in areas that were already friendly to him.

Biden has posted leads of greater than 5 points in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania. He is ahead in more than enough states to capture 270 electoral votes, if the election were held today.

We can test our data, too, to see what would happen if the polls are underestimating Trump like they did in 2016.

What I found was Biden would still be ahead, even with a 2016 sized mishap.

The polls underestimated Trump by 1 point (RealClearPolitics) or 2 points (FiveThirtyEight) in the aggregate of the states we currently have polling from. Applying that 2016 bias to our current data, Biden would have a 6- to 7-point lead nationally.

Concentrating on just the competitive states, the polls undersold Trump by 2 points (RealClearPolitics) or 3 points (FiveThirtyEight). If the polls in the competitive states were off by as much as they were at the end in 2016, Biden would still be ahead in states like Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Of course, it may not be wise to expect a 2016-sized polling era in 2020. The polls in these states that had major statewide contests in 2018 were pretty much unbiased. No matter what set of states (all or just competitive) and which aggregate, the polls were not more favorable to Republicans than the final result.

In a state like Wisconsin, the final 2018 Marquette poll nailed the final Senate margin and underestimated the Democratic candidate for governor's margin by 1 point.

The bottom line is Biden's ahead right now nationally and in the competitive states. The good news for Trump is he has about six months to change the course of the campaign, which is more than enough time to do so.

CNN ignoring their own poll showing Trump up substantially in the battlefield states including Wisconsin

The reason that CNN is "ignoring their own poll," r297, is that it was a national poll, not an actual poll of the battleground (not battlefield) states. We've already had this conversation here.

Some people inappropriately pulled the battleground states out of that national poll and pretended that it was meaningful. It wasn't. The methodology was off, as were the number of people polled. As a national poll, it was fine. Pretending that it meant anything for the individual states? Worthless.

When you look at the actual state polls of the battleground states, Biden has a reasonable lead. Most of them are within the margin of error but it is nonetheless true that Trump is in trouble.

By the way, R297, you might want to look at r286 before you start playing more silly games about that poll. The Twitter thread linked there points out:

[quote]And let's not waste any of our time on unbalanced battleground subsamples from national polls.

[quote]They polled 1001 people, 583 of whom live in those 15 states

[quote]and to further illustrate how absurd that is that averages out to about 39 respondents per state.

Oh, what a surprise. You were the one who posted about that "shock poll" on this thread, r297. And learned nothing from the responses. But then, based on your posting history, you really don't seem to be interested in reality:

[quote]I'm afraid Joe and his handlers have spent far too much of that year hiding deep underground waiting for the "all clear" siren. They just don't seem themselves anymore.

[quote]Former NBC Executive Tom Rogers Suggests Biden Not Ready for ‘Prime Time’: ‘I Really Fear a Crisis’ for Him if He Can’t Articulate Better

[quote]Trump’s Odds of Winning Reelection Are Higher Than You Think

[quote]SHOCK CNN POLL: Trump Leads Biden By 7 Points in the Battleground States

[quote]Biden’s Virtual Campaign Is a Disaster

[quote]Exactly in line with the talking points sent out by the Biden campaign.

[quote]The people using the Biden campaign talking points seem to be getting more and more shrill. The boat must be taking water.

[quote]'I Have Never Treated A Woman Inappropriately,' Joe Biden Whispers Into Journalist's Ear

If you're going to troll here, you really do need to up your game.

Battleground states polling averages:

Wisconsin: Biden +2.7

Florida: Biden +3.3

Michigan: Biden +5.5

Pennsylvania: Biden +6.5

North Carolina: Trump +1.0

Arizona: Biden +4.4

Minnesota (just one poll and it's from last year, so I'm not going to bother)

Ohio: Biden +3.75 (Frankly, I don't believe this one, and two of those polls are from last year)

Iowa: Trump +4.6

New Hampshire: Biden +4.6

Virginia: Biden +7.3 (I'm not sure we can really call Virginia a battleground state anymore)

None of this is definitive, of course. There's a long way to go and a lot can happen. And the pandemic has really thrown a wrench into things, in ways that have helped and hurt both candidates. It's going to be a tight race, with both candidates fighting for fewer than 10% of the voters in a dozen battleground states.

One thing we can say, though: anyone claiming certainty about the November election has revealed themselves to be a blind partisan, a troll, or a fool (or, more likely, all of the above).

Love these fascist cunts throwing up people's post histories -- when you can't win intellectually or don't have the intellectual rigor, call people names and put up lists of what they said. Fucking cunts.

Biden will NOT get it done. He's fizzling already, and all the SJW propping--up and screeching in the world won't change his dim chances and his almost certain mishandling of what should be an easy victory. DEMS WILL BLOW IT AGAIN -- BE AFRAID, PEOPLE!

Te Republicans have game and we will have out heads handed to us unless we get a lot hard-headed. Too much Peter Pan-ism among the Dems. WAKE UP!!!

R302, why shouldn’t we know what people are posting? It’s clarifying. There’s no need to waste time arguing with someone who is trolling with an obvious agenda. If you’re a troll, own it!

Harry Enten:

[quote]High quality state polling (15k interviews & 20+ polls) since April 1 suggests Biden leads by 7-8 pts nationally, is ahead in states totaling a majority of electoral votes, & said lead is wide enough to withstand a 2016 like error were election held today.

[quote]High quality state polling (15k interviews & 20+ polls) since April 1 suggests Biden leads by 7-8 pts nationally,

This brings me no comfort. I need a double digit lead.

KEEP WORKING!

Biden has to ask the electorate the Ronald Reagan, "are you better off than you were four years ago? " Things were better four years ago. And most regular ppl would agree.

r308, does that work in a war? It wouldn’t have worked for Dewey in 1944.

There's no "war" going on. It's Biden (and Obama) v Trump. BRING IT PUNK

[quote]Love these fascist cunts throwing up people's post histories

LOL... I'm a "fascist cunt" for the sole crime of pointing out what people have said, R302? What an ... interesting ... perspective.

[quote]when you can't win intellectually

See r298 and r299 and r301. I already "won intellectually," mostly because r297 is a ridiculous troll who was full of shit.

If you don't like seeing your posts used against you, then perhaps you, and r297, of course, should think twice before you post. Personally, I have absolutely no problem with people using trolldar to look at my prior posts, one of the two reasons that the webmaster here provided that functionality. I stand by everything I've written.

Of course, we all know the real reason that R302 hates "fascist cunts" like me. It's because of his own ridiculous trolling:

[quote]Is squinting or wearing sunglasses supposed to hide the dementia eyes?

[quote]I fear troubles ahead with Biden. 'Hope I'm wrong.

[quote]Sadly, we can count on Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory -- what should be a lock may be a debacle. Again. Not liking things.

[quote]Biden just ain't gonna make it. This man will NOT get us across the finish line :(

[quote]Out of gas, decrepitude, he's probably dirty, apt to pander with a poor choice of running mate -- for starters.

[quote]Goddam right I'm concerned, and you better be too, junior.

[quote]Biden is a guaranteed loser for the Democrats in November. Somebody better pop up who can get the job done or we're headed for DISASTER.

[quote]I voted for Hillary -- I was a happy- clappy, good Democrat -- and I had my FUCKING HEAD HANDED TO ME. I learned from that naive stupidity. I DEMAND hard-headed choices from ice-cold strategists.

[quote]Biden is going t blow it for us. He's too old, too out of it, too loopy.

[quote]Concern troll knows a loser when he sees one, sparky. Hate to burst your bubble. Better now than in December [sic], like lat time -- when it really hurts.

[quote]NO to Biden, NO to political dynasties, NO group to think! DEMAND BETTER, DEMOCRATS and DiSGUSTED-WITH-TRUMP REPUBLICANS!

[quote]Everybody is just gonna run out to the polling booths or send in their ballots and vote for the Anointed One in protest of Trump? Replace one-out-of-it weirdo with another one? It'll be just that simple? Then we deserve to lose for such naiveté. And we will, sadly.

[quote]I aver, Biden will not and can not get us across the finish line in November.

[quote]Got to love the name calling from the incels on this thread. As usual, and as in all things incel, you can smell their desperation. Fuck your group think, you would-be apparatchiks. Someone open a window and blow their stink out lol.

[quote]Keep pushing Biden down our throats and we'll be sitting here chewing sausage again come November.

[quote]Love these fascist cunts throwing up people's post histories -- when you can't win intellectually or don't have the intellectual rigor, call people names and put up lists of what they said. Fucking cunts.

[quote]Biden will NOT get it done. He's fizzling already, and all the SJW propping--up and screeching in the world won't change his dim chances and his almost certain mishandling of what should be an easy victory. DEMS WILL BLOW IT AGAIN -- BE AFRAID, PEOPLE!

[quote]Te Republicans have game and we will have out heads handed to us unless we get a lot hard-headed. Too much Peter Pan-ism among the Dems. WAKE UP!!!

Not a single post in that entire list is worth reading. None of it is backed up by actual data. It's all rather ridiculous concern trolling that bears no resemblance to reality. So yes, of course, he's worried about "fascist cunts" like me who hold him accountable for his bullshit.

America will be a beacon of hope for LGBTQ rights again

EXCLUSIVE: Former Vice President Joe Biden writes that "we belong at the forefront of this struggle" because "anything less would be un-American."

Today, on the International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia and Biphobia, I stand with LGBTQ+ people and their allies around the world to celebrate and champion the inherent dignity and worth of all persons, regardless of their sexual orientation or gender identity.

Around the globe, including here at home, brave LGBTQ+ activists are fighting for equal protection under the law, freedom from violence, and recognition of their fundamental human rights. The United States should have their backs.

We belong at the forefront of this struggle – speaking out, standing strong for our most dearly held values. We should be sending a clear message that bigotry is bigotry, prejudice is prejudice, and hate is hate, no matter where we find it. American leadership must mean moral leadership in the fight for equality for all.

The Obama-Biden Administration took unprecedented steps to ensure that our government delivered real progress on the promise of equality, both at home and abroad. From signing the Matthew Shepard and James Byrd, Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act into law, to repealing “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,” to supporting marriage equality, we fought to advance the civil liberties of LGBTQ+ people in the United States and, for the first time ever, established the advancement of LGBTQ+ equality as a foreign policy goal.

Instead of building on this progress, the Trump-Pence Administration has done everything it can to undermine LGBTQ+ rights: giving safe harbor to hate and rolling back protections for LGBTQ+ persons, blocking the ability of transgender individuals to openly serve their country, denying LGBTQ+ people access to critical health care, and failing to address the epidemic of violence against transgender people, among other odious policies.

Today, many LGBTQ+ people in the United States live in fear, and LGBTQ+ activists in other countries, who are often fighting desperately for their rights and personal safety, are no longer sure that the United States is their friend and ally.

As President, I will reinvigorate and expand U.S. efforts to advance the human rights of LGBTQ+ people at home and around the world.

The United States will again be a beacon of hope for people anywhere in the world who suffer violence and discrimination for the simple fact of who they are or who they love. We will strengthen the coalition of countries determined to eliminate discrimination and violence based on sexual orientation and gender identity.

Anything less would be un-American.

Former Vice President Joe Biden is the presumptive Democratic nominee for president.

Let’s go, Joe!

You're scary, R312. Are you "Muriel"? Interesting.

So there really is no anonymity here? Be it known one and all, then.

Opinions and statements are being stored on Data Lounge for future use?

Furthermore, CUNT @ R312, you left out my anti-Trump statements.

I left out your "anti-Trump statements," r318, because they were irrelevant. Your statements about Biden were ridiculously ignorant, not to mention terribly persistent in multiple threads.

Again, if you're unhappy about your own words being brought to light, then perhaps you should stop and think the next time you're about to post something so foolish.

Wooooooooooooooow^^^^ Woooo. Take note everybody. ^^^^

[quote]So there really is no anonymity here? Be it known one and all, then.

You are pseudonymous here, not anonymous. Because you have to sign in to post, your prior statements can be associated with your account.

[quote]Opinions and statements are being stored on Data Lounge for future use?

Not all of them but threads have been resurrected from years ago. The threads here are stored in a database. Sometimes the webmaster deletes old data; sometimes it sticks around. Nobody has ever been able to figure out a pattern.

Trolldar is also limited in what it displays, showing only the threads that you personally originated and threads that you and the person who checked both visited in recent times. If you post to a thread that I haven't visited, those posts won't show up in my trolldar view.

Thank you, Heinrich Himmler, at R321.

Godwin's Law, R322. Really, you should just stop posting, as you're exposing yourself as an even bigger fool every time you do.

Why, because I think Biden's weak? Really? I mean WTF. That's radical to the polizei here?

No, because you cannot back up anything you write, particularly since Biden is doing just fine in the polls, Democrats have been doing very well where it counts in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020, and Trump is in one of the worst positions for an incumbent we've seen in decades.

And because you take any disagreement with your foolishness personally and lash out with some of the most ridiculous drama queen hyperbole. But hey, you just keep right on with the foolishness and I'll continue laughing at you.

This is why we cannot stop working. In fact, WORK HARDER!

Trump has a real shot of winning

Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN

Updated 9:41 AM ET, Wed May 20, 2020

Trump attacks Obama as he pivots to reelection

(CNN)Former Vice President Joe Biden is ahead of President Donald Trump in the presidential race. He leads in the swing states and is up somewhere between 5 and 8 points nationally, depending on what methodology you use.

Yet it's important to point out that even if the polls are an accurate representation of the current state of the race, presidential races can shift a lot during the final six months of the campaign. Biden may be favored, but this race is far from over.

Take a look at every presidential election involving an incumbent since 1940. It's 13 races in total and gives us a good baseline from which to work.

There's been a 11-point difference between an average of May polls and the result in the average election. That would be more than enough to change the course of the 2020 race, if the shift occurred in Trump's direction.

Now some of these races (most notably 1964) had polling leaders with large margins that have never occurred in any modern presidential election and were bound to shrink during the course of the campaign. If we look at the only races where the polling leader had a 25-point advantage or less, the average difference between the polls at this point and the result has still been a fairly high 8 points.

If the 2020 race moved 8 points in Trump's direction, he'd win.

You could even concentrate on just the most recent incumbent elections of 2004 and 2012. Like 2020, opinions of the incumbents (George W. Bush in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2012) were hardened early. The final national results in those races differed from the May polls by 3 and 4 points.

If the 2020 race moved 3 to 4 points in Trump's direction, he might not win the popular vote, but he would have a pretty good shot of winning the electoral college.

Interestingly, there have been three presidents who have lost since 1940 (Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992). Two of them (Carter and Bush) were actually ahead in the polls at this point. Carter was up by 6 points and lost by 10 points nationally. Bush was up by 8 points over Bill Clinton and 6 points over Ross Perot, and Clinton would defeat Bush by 6 points and Perot by 24 points. Meanwhile, Harry Truman and George W. Bush were trailing by small margins in the May 1948 and 2004 polls respectively, and both would go on to win by small margins.

Of course, just because something is possible doesn't mean it's likely.

Even if we saw a swing in the 2020 race, there's no guarantee it would go in Trump's favor. In the 13 races since 1940, seven times the incumbent did better than he was polling now. The other six times, the challenger did better. Just based on that data alone, it's really no better than a 50/50 proposition that Trump will do better in the results than he is polling currently.

Further, polls tend to shift in the incumbent's direction when they're doing worse than their approval ratings would suggest. Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984 ended up outperforming their May polling and came in closer to where their net approval (approval - disapproval) ratings suggested they'd be. Carter in 1980 and Bush in 1992 trended toward their negative net approval ratings.

Trump's net approval rating is in the mid to high negative single digits, which is right in line with his polling against Biden.

The bottom line is six months is a lifetime in politics, but you'd rather be in Biden's position than Trump's.

Notice no one cares about T Reade anymore. The check fraud destroyed her scam, and the media are embarrassed.

[quote]Trump has a real shot of winning

Well, duh. Nobody sensible has denied that. It's going to be a close election, no matter who wins. It's just that Trump is not in a very good position right now.

[quote]Trump has a real shot of winning

Speaking to that....

[quote]Trump has a real shot of winning

Speaking to that....

This is big. I'd say that they're trying to save the party

Bush administration alums form pro-Biden super PAC

BY TAL AXELROD - 06/02/20 04:56 PM EDT

TheHill.com Bush administration alums form pro-Biden super PAC BY TAL AXELROD - 06/02/20 04:56 PM EDT 1,558 21,749

Just In... Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez defeats Valerie Plame in New Mexico primary CAMPAIGN — 41M 38S AGO Kathleen Williams, Matt Rosendale to face off for Montana House seat CAMPAIGN — 50M 14S AGO Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks to face Democrat Rita Hart in open House race in Iowa CAMPAIGN — 1H 7M AGO Gianforte wins Montana gubernatorial primary CAMPAIGN — 1H 14M AGO VIEW ALL Former officials from the George W. Bush administration have formed a super PAC to support former Vice President Joe Biden’s White House campaign.

The super PAC, dubbed 43 Alumni For Biden, referring to the 43rd president, was formed Monday, according to a Tuesday filing with the Federal Election Commission.

Karen Kirksey, a former Treasury Department official from the Bush administration, is listed as the group’s treasurer and custodian of records.

The group did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Hill regarding who else will be involved in the group or what it intends to do to support Biden.

Biden has already all but locked up the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination but is facing what is widely expected to be a grueling general election battle against President Trump.

Trump heads into the race with a massive cash advantage and has held the bully pulpit of the presidency for months while Biden is just starting to venture outside of Delaware following a quarantine during the coronavirus pandemic. However, Trump is facing widespread criticism over his handling of the coronavirus and his rhetoric surrounding protests over the killing of George Floyd, including his threats to activate the military to quell riots.

TAGS U.S. TREASURY DONALD TRUMP JOE BIDEN GEORGE W. BUSH GEORGE FLOYD RIOTS CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC

Joe Biden@JoeBiden·

If the Senate has time to confirm Donald Trump’s unqualified judicial nominees, it has time to pass legislation that will give true meaning to our Constitution’s promise of equal protection under the law.

No more excuses. No more delays.

I ask all of America — not to deny our pain or cover it over — but to use it to compel our nation across this turbulent threshold into the next phase of progress, inclusion, and opportunity for our great democracy.

Black Voters Are Coming for Trump

They shouldn’t lose hope. They are at the heart of the fight to take back America.

By Juan Williams

Mr. Williams is a Fox News analyst.

June 3, 2020, 5:00 a.m. ET

In Columbia, S.C., on Saturday, a young protester told a reporter that she just didn’t think voting is “how change happens.”

“They’ve been telling us to do that for so long,” she added, “and we’ve done it — and look at everything that’s still going on.”

Fury over the cruel death of George Floyd, a black man in police custody, combined with fear of a deadly virus and its painful economic impact, make this a dark, dizzying moment in our national life. But African-Americans shouldn’t feel hopeless, because the black vote does matter — it has never mattered more. It is at the heart of the fight to take back America.

The biggest story of 2020 politics is hard to ignore. But somehow it is being ignored.

The black vote now defines American politics.

Joe Biden would be retired if not for the black vote. Black voters made him the Democrats’ presidential nominee. In November, the number of black voters who turn out in the crucial swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin is likely to be the deciding factor in the election. That means black voters, 12 percent of the national electorate, are set to pick our next president.

Black women, the most reliable activist base of the party, are this year’s version of the stars of past campaigns — Soccer Moms and Blue Collar Moms. The best illustration of this power is a black woman asking Jim Clyburn, her South Carolina congressman, who he planned to vote for in the primary. He said Joe Biden and followed up with a public endorsement: “We know Joe. But most importantly, Joe knows us.”

Mr. Biden went on to blow out the competition in South Carolina and easily win the rest of the South. Two top competitors with no traction among black voters, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar, dropped out and endorsed him.

The party’s sudden consolidation around Mr. Biden abruptly ended a confusing race that many feared was hurtling toward an open convention. Few had seen it coming. Mr. Biden looked boring in comparison with the impassioned Bernie Sanders and the furious Donald Trump. Yet polls consistently showed that in a general election matchup, it was Mr. Biden who held the highest margin of victory over Mr. Trump.

There are many reasons for black voters to like Mr. Biden — his record on judicial appointments and voting rights during his long tenure on the Senate Judiciary Committee; his work on federal stimulus spending after the recession and on Obamacare; and of course his service as vice president to the nation’s first black president.

But beating Mr. Trump tops the list. For black voters, the prospect of four more years of this administration is about more than politics.

It’s personal.

It is a reaction born of real fear — of the racism that led a white man to shoot Ahmaud Arbery in Georgia and a white police officer to press his knee into the neck of George Floyd in Minnesota, of the racism that every day results in more black people dying of the coronavirus. African-Americans see this, and they see a president who does nothing to stop it.

Contrary to the image created by news coverage of the Black Lives Matter protests, 43 percent of black voters are moderates. A quarter identify as conservatives. These are the black people in church on Sunday. They are proud members of a sorority or fraternity.

Russian trolls recognized the power of these voters. “No single group” was targeted more than African-Americans, according to a Senate Intelligence Committee report on interference in the 2016 presidential election.

The Russians wanted to drive down black enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton. But they also worked to deepen the black-white divide to increase white turnout for the Republican Party.

Their bots and trolls depicted black Americans as synonymous with the loudest activists in the Black Lives Matter movement. They amplified Mr. Trump’s tactic of appealing to “forgotten” white voters by demonizing blacks and Latinos, suggesting they bring crime and bad schools into white neighborhoods and contribute to the flight of American jobs.

The strategy seems to have succeeded.

In 2016, while white turnout went up, “the black voter turnout rate declined for the first time in 20 years in a presidential election,” according to the Pew Research Center.

President Trump, too, recognizes the power of the black vote. After his upset win in 2016, he said: Blacks “didn’t come out to vote for Hillary. They didn’t come out. And that was big — so thank you to the African-American community.”

Today he continues putting his attention and campaign money into diminishing the impact of black voters.

First, he wants to attract more than the 8 percent of the black vote he won in 2016. He likes to cite low unemployment statistics as evidence that he is a good president for black Americans. Of course, black unemployment fell to 7.5 percent from 16.8 percent under President Obama; it fell two more points under Mr. Trump before skyrocketing in the course of the pandemic.

But if he can’t get them to vote for him, he’d like to keep them from voting at all.

Mr. Trump is opposed to mail-in voting, even during the pandemic, saying it is fertile ground for fraud. But his real concern seems to be that making voting easier in any way means more members of minorities will vote, and vote for Democrats. In March he was explicit in saying “you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again” if mail-in voting were allowed. Last week he doubled down, tweeting that it would “lead to the end of our great Republican Party.”

(In fact, there is no evidence of widespread mail-in voting fraud, many states already allow it, and some studies suggest that it actually helps Republicans.)

Third, Mr. Trump is trying to assure suburban white female voters that they shouldn’t fear being labeled racist if they vote for him.

White women moved away from the Republican Party in the 2018 midterms in part in reaction to Mr. Trump’s bully-boy behavior and the racial division he encourages. They didn’t want to be seen as some of those “fine people,” as Mr. Trump described the white supremacists in Charlottesville, Va.

During the Super Bowl, white women and blacks were the target audience of a high-priced ad centered on the president’s decision to commute the prison sentence of a black woman who had been in jail for 21 years for a nonviolent drug conviction. Then, during his 2020 State of the Union address, he celebrated a former member of the Tuskegee Airmen and featured a black woman and her daughter who received an academic scholarship.

But anyone who remembers Mr. Trump’s record of disrespect toward women, and black women in particular, isn’t going to fall for this act.

He told four congresswomen of color, three of whom were born in the United States, that they should “go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came.” He called Representative Maxine Waters, a California Democrat, a “low-IQ person” and Omarosa Manigault Newman, a former aide, a “dog.” He said one black reporter was a “loser” and another asked “a lot of stupid questions.”

“His supporters are right — he does attack everyone,” Adia Harvey Wingfield, a sociology professor at Washington University, told The Washington Post. “But there’s also a clear commonality in the attacks he levels against people of color and black professionals. These are straight out of historic playbooks about black workers and professionals in particular — not being qualified, not being intelligent or having what it takes to succeed in a predominantly white environment.”

After three years of Mr. Trump as president, 65 percent of black people say it is a “bad time” to be black in America, according to a January Washington Post-Ipsos poll. Just as dispiriting, most black people now say white Americans “do not understand” the discrimination they face. That applies to white Democrats as well as white Republicans.

The sense of racial isolation is fueled by the high incidence of hate crimes against black people — as well as against Latinos and Jews.

And then there is the anxiety over the prospect of four more years of being invisible as the president sets national goals. For example, Mr. Trump regularly demeans government workers, many of whom are black. He’s still trying to dismantle the Affordable Care Act and cut financial aid to the unemployed.

Mr. Trump was slow to respond to the coronavirus overall. But he really failed to step up to the crisis in black America.

“The disproportionate impact of Covid-19 crisis is only having the effect of increasing people’s disdain and distrust of Trump and the entire administration,” Adrianne Shropshire, the executive director of BlackPAC, a super PAC focused on black Democrats, told The New York Times.

After Mr. Arbery was stopped while jogging on a residential Georgia street and shot to death for no apparent reason, Mr. Trump said it was “very disturbing” but added that the gunmen might have reacted to “something that we didn’t see on the tape.” The refusal to condemn the attack outright led black activists to complain that even in the face of what looked like murder, Mr. Trump felt the need to nod to his “largely white coalition,” according to The Washington Post.

“When you have hate emanating from the Oval Office, why are we surprised?” said Karen Bass, a California congresswoman who heads the Congressional Black Caucus, about the shooting.

Black Americans have had enough. They have an explosive, personal investment in defeating Mr. Trump in 2020. More than 80 percent of them say Mr. Trump is a racist. For them, defeating him is the civil rights movement of 2020.

And it is not an empty threat.

If black voters returned to the polls at their 2012 levels, the Democratic presidential candidate “would win the Electoral College by 294-244,” according to an analysis by the Center for American Progress.

If Mr. Biden chooses a black woman as his running mate, as many expect him to do, it could further boost turnout. He is said to be considering Kamala Harris, Val Demings and Stacey Abrams. He has also promised to name a black woman to the Supreme Court. Given their role in his triumph in the Democratic primaries, black women are at a point of maximal leverage in demanding a seat at the table of power.

One 2006 study of voting patterns found that black Democratic candidates spurred a jump of two to three percentage points in turnout among blacks and whites. There is the risk of increasing the number of whites voting in opposition to the black candidate. But that risk comes with a big benefit if the history-making ticket sparks a boost in black turnout in swing states.

White Democrats actually were “a little more likely than black Democrats to think a black nominee would help the ticket’s chances,” according to the summary of a CBS News poll in early May. Most black voters say their priority for a vice president is simply that the candidate — black or white — increases Mr. Biden’s chance of winning. In late May, polls showed the top choice for Mr. Biden’s vice president among black and white Democrats was Senator Elizabeth Warren.

It’s likely that Mr. Trump is now hoping that suburban white voters will be so frightened by the protests against police violence and news footage of broken windows at Target stores that they will turn to him in sufficient numbers to nullify the black vote. Stoking racial divisions may work for his base, but not for voters in the middle. Polls show most independents have already decided they can’t support Mr. Trump. Now they have seen the tape of Mr. Floyd dying. Violent protests may make them anxious, but they have had their eyes opened to injustice.

These are dark days, but black voters’ profile and power have never been this high. They have the chance to lead the nation to recovery. Civil rights leaders, who pushed for the 1965 Voting Rights Act and had their blood spilled to register black voters, dreamed of this moment.

?????

June 04, 2020 - 12:22 PM EDT

GOP Sen. Murkowski 'struggling' with whether to vote for Trump

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) on Thursday praised former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis's scathing rebuke of President Trump as "true and honest and necessary" and admitted she is "struggling" with whether to vote for the president.

"I thought General Mattis's words were true and honest and necessary and overdue," Murkowski, the chair of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said on her way to a vote in the Capitol Thursday.

"When I saw Gen. Mattis's comments yesterday I felt like perhaps we're getting to the point where we can be more honest with the concerns we might hold internally and have the courage of our convictions and speak up," she told The Washington Post's Paul Kane, who pooled the remarks and sent them to other Senate reporters.

Asked if she could vote for Trump in the 2020 election, Murkowski admitted, "I am struggling with it. I have struggled with it for a long time."