Now's the time to buy Carnival Cruise stock, right?

They will very likely end up in bankruptcy, just like the airlines will. The creditors will end up owing your stake.

So, no, unless you want to just chuck your money in the incinerator.

owing = owning

Travel stocks are going to crash further. The virus panic is still in its early stages. Stocks that have been doing well are ones that account for people staying indoors. Remote conferencing, online grocery shopping, etc.

I'm watching it too and waiting for it to find a bottom.

[quote]R3 I'm watching it too and waiting for it to find a bottom.

On another topic - I wonder, with coronavirus, if bottoms are more at risk of infection than tops. Like in the Olde Days.

We must chart this, as well.

When the price is down to 2009 levels, that's likely a bottom. In 2009 everyone thought the world had come to an end.

Their cash flow can not survive this. They are all going out of business their stock is worthless.

Why do I get the impression that the naysayers are buying up travel stocks as fast as they can?

The cruise industry isn't going to be healthy for awhile. First, the losses will continue for an additional year as all the bad press will make some be hesitant to go on a cruise next year - even after the coronavirus subsides. The bad PR of being stuck on a ship and all of the cases of people getting other viruses is going to hurt them

Second, they've built too many fucking cruise ships in the past 5 years. There are a lot of new entrants in different markets (MCC, Virgin) and they've spent a shit ton of money on these ships.

They've overspeculated already and then this coronavirus is going to make for some rough seas ahead for the next few years. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of major lines go under.

r9, as long as they can avoid bankruptcy, the obvious solution is to scrap the older ships with the 90s decor. Though, I wonder if the old clunkers sailing out from TX, LA, SC and northern FL are very profitable. After 9-11 the airline industry continually declined in the points/miles and service, that's without TSA's additions to the industry. I love cruises, especially the steam rooms between 3-7pm, let's hope this industry makes it out alright.

R10 - you must be aware of all the megaships that have been built the past 10 years. They're all larger and larger, not smaller, and they cost billions. MSC has 6 huge ships on order alone.

They've got to get asses in those beds and there's going to be severe markdowns on prices. The Med and Caribbean cruise routes already have too many boats - way too many.

The only way they may get out of this is to start using some of those ships in more exotic locales, like India, Africa, SE Asia, etc. or cutting service and docking some ships.

Has Disney docked all their ships? They have always maintained a stellar reputation. ABC News loves to do specials about the horrors that happen aboard cruise ships, then take a moment to state that "in full disclosure, ABC News' parent company owns and operates Disney Cruise lines and no such incident has happened aboard."

r11 respectfully it seems like you are trying to counter my argument, when in fact it seems like we are in agreement. I was saying that Carnival has an entire fleet of aged ships that leave from the down market ports in TX, LA, SC, and north FL. These are the bottom barrel of their services, along with the FL and CA weekend cruises. If the going gets tough, i was wondering if they could just discontinue services with those old ships, then again it must be a profitable route for them to still use them. If the market is oversaturated then they should move some of the gigantic ships to non-FL destinations.

Wouldn't airline stocks be safer? Nobody HAS to go on a cruise, but some people will always have to fly for one reason or another. And I think the gov't would bailout an airline long before they'd bail out a cruise line (which is never). There's blood in the streets with oil stocks right now too which has me licking my chops. I want those dividends!

Correct, R14. Oil just dropped 20% this morning.

By the way, Carnival just dropped another 10%.

It's a perfect time to go on a cruise.

Damning new cover story from Bloomberg: What Was Carnival Thinking?

This will more likely lead to a reorganization across the entire industry with several players merging or disappearing entirely.

The big three Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian may not survive in their current forms if I really had to guess.

I bought 100 shares of Carnival when it was at around $50/share for the sole purpose of getting extra onboard credit on the Princess cruises I was planning to take (and did.) But I guess I'd should just bite the bullet and take the loss and sell now while it's still worth something. I can't even deduct the loss on my tax return because the shares are in an IRA.

Boat cruises are never coming back.

I just placed a "sell" order. My loss was over $4,000.

Buying any travel-related stocks now is crazy. They're all tanking and will continue to tank the rest of the year. No one will be flying, taking a cruise, staying in a hotel for a very long time. When a vacation has the potential to kill you, many folks will stay home.

Sadd

The cruise industry will bounce back. The naysayers are people who never cruise (except in public washrooms!) Yes..it will be awhile before they are up and running, but they employee tens of thousands of people and bring billions in tourism. I for one just got off a cruise in Feveuary and will be looking forward to my next one by the end of the year

For stockholders, it doesn't matter if they "bounce back" after they've declared bankruptcy.

If my friends could see me now!

Lol at R24. Delusional. The cruise industry is going to be sued out of existence by the hundreds of people they killed and the thousands they put in mortal danger. It’s dead, and it’s NEVER coming back.

I don't know about the cruise industry as a whole, R27, but I wouldn't touch a share in Carnival with a bargepole, for the reason you state.

Even if Carnival could survive bankruptcy, they will choose it to avoid the lawsuits that are about to fuck it in the ass.

It's not that the industry itself will not EVENTUALLY stage a comeback.

The problems is that many of the individual players may not be able to sustain operations while ridership is down.

- The industry is very capital intensive. Buying and building ships is expensive and needs to be done years in advance with payments required while construction is occurring.

- Like many factories and call center facilities, ships need to be running around the clock. Ships do not spend much time in dock.

- Like airlines, running a partially empty ship is extremely expensive. If cruise lines have to run ships below some target capacity, they lose money after capital expenses. They cannot afford not to run a cruise and they cannot afford to run a cruise if it's going to keep losing money each time it goes out.

- In order to get riders, they'll need to offer huge discounts to fill boats, driving profit down further, but covering their short run fixed costs.

Even after the restrictions are lifted, the will not be able to get passangers back quickly. People will remember for a long time the chaos with people trapped on plague ships, unable to dock anywhere.

There will have to be some sort of shakeout in the industry, and it will likely struggle for years unless some fundamental structural changes occur.

The cruise industry might come back some day, but it is going to be a while and the two groups who will suffer the most are the workers and the investors. Most cruise companies aren't located in the US so they won't be getting a taxpayer bailout.

If you are thinking about making a new investment, there are other industries that will bounce back sooner with the great risk of bankruptcy. If you are already invested, it is a crap shoot, leave now and take a huge loss or wait for bankruptcy and take a complete loss.