[quote] R87: How can you predict "much higher fed tax rates" later?
tl; dr: my Federal Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) of 401k funds at age 73 will be federal income taxed at as high as 31%, but I can convert small sums every year now, costing me 10% instead.
This is simplified a little. I start with some assumptions. The law today says you must make a RMD yearly, starting at age 73. The amount of your 401k balance at the start of the year, divided by your IRS-determined remaining life expectancy, is the amount required. I assume that this law remains unchanged.
I assume federal income tax rates are the same as today or higher
I assume my 401k saving will grow on average at some particular rate yearly.
Now imagine an exaggerated example with reference to Fed income tax rates: suppose I have $500,000 in my 401k at age 50. At 7% return, it should double in 10 years by age 60, then double again by age 70. That’s $2,250,000 at age 73, and my remaining life expectancy will be about 22.5 years. So, my yearly required withdrawal will be $100,000. Add social security, and my income will be at least $125,000 per year on average. That would be taxed at an effective rate of about 31%.
At a very low 401k balance, say $1000, this RMD won’t change my income much. So, there is a point somewhere between a 401k balance of $1000 and $500,000, (at age 50), that produces this situation where the RMD pushes me into a higher tax bracket. It’s a little different for everyone. (You might run into this if your 401k balance at 50 is, maybe, $200,000 or more).
When I convert 401k funds in small increments today, my tax rate is 10%, instead some higher rate.