Trump likely to win reelection, historically accurate election model shows http://

When 👏 will 👏 the 👏 deplorables 👏 learn 👏 their 👏 lesson 👏?!

What lesson? He is the best thing to ever happen to their agenda and values

Over half the country now thinks he should be removed from office. I don’t see how he gets re-elected with those numbers.

Le sigh...I hate to agree with the OP but its probably true. Lord I hate him....

There aren’t enough deplorables to re-elect him by themselves.

I think polls are underestimating his support

There's nothing normal about the Trump administration and standard methods of predicting voter response just are not going to apply in 2020.

Then again, living in Massachusetts, maybe I'm in a bubble.

[quote] The projections are based on how consumers feel about their financial situations, stock market gains achieved under Trump and the prospects for unemployment.

In other words, the projections don’t take into account that 52% of the country thinks he should be impeached and removed from office.

Not if this guy lives to testify, he won't.

Model smzodel. Trump will resign.

R6, that’s because you’re a hand-wringing depressive.

This particular analysis has only been BACKTESTED to 1980, meaning it didn't predict any of those elections.

I actually can't find anything about this Moody's presidential election model before September 2019.

Even though he has ruined our lives and destroyed any chance of our children and grandchildren having happy or meaningful lives, we will vote for him again because Trump is God.

The Electoral College makes a huge difference.

[quote]The projections are based on how consumers feel about their financial situations, stock market gains achieved under Trump and the prospects for unemployment.

If there was ever a time a president might fail despite a decent economy, surely it is now.

They do this every election year, trot out a dozen or more new models, all of which "predicted" the last dozen elections. It's all bullshit, as there aren't enough data to build a [italic]reliable[/italic] model. They're all useless click-bait.

I take that back, I can find mentions of it back to 2008, but not a thing showing it predicted every election since 1980. Wouldn't this be too early to tell anyway if it's an economic model? We have a lot of time ahead of us for the economy to go tits up.

Hey Geniuses! When every SINGLE candidate on the democratic stage offers healthcare to illegal immigrants, advocates for transgenders in women's bathrooms and other radical ideas, this is what you get. The democratic party has lost their minds!

He should not even be allowed to run in the next election. He's a liar and a crook and will be indicted when he leaves office. If he runs and wins he will finish destroying this country. It must not happen.

It seems like over half the country wouldn't vote for him and that might be true. Itll be like last time where the electoral college will win it for him again. I bet he loses the popular vote again but it wont matter cause all his shitty supporters are in the right places to win it for him.

r17, you know non-documented workers get free healthcare anyway but showing up to the emergency room and not paying the bill. Maybe offer it to them and they pay a premium and copay and it's not just dumped on the taxpayer anyway.

You're over the top about transgenders in bathrooms. We have gender neutral ones at work and no one is losing their mind. Men dressed as men use the same restroom as women do.

How about we worry about something more important like our Potus committing treason.

Liberals need to stop clumping in a few states

He just needs a McGovern or Mondale, or even a Dukakis to run against.

Idiots like that said the same shit in 2016 and 2018, r20. Transgender issues weren't a factor in those elections, other than in a few local cases, which Democrats mostly won, and they won't be a factor in 2020. It's just not what voters care about.

R17 Your talking points are very 2018. The news cycle, the topics in the Public Sphere have moved far beyond these stupid focus-group testing, right wing attacks.

Please stop posting bullshit like this...no one knows what’s going to happen. OP is a Russian bot.

Plus it's from The Hill, which has become a right-wing rag. Why do you all fall for this stuff?

Most of us don't, R26, as you can see from this thread. Personally, I'm just as irritated at models that "prove" that Trump will lose. They're all bullshit.

Are you even following the news, OP? Given what's been happening day after day, and continues to happen day after day, it remains to be seen whether Trump will even still be in office by the time of the 2020 election. At this point, all 2020 election models are unreliable, including the "historically accurate" ones.

I just want it to be over.

Well, how about helping your local democratic party to canvass?

How about sticking a bumper sticker on your car?

Trump may win again (God help us) but if he were to win there's no way he's going to do as good as last time. Two of Moody's model has trump wining more states than 2016. I always thought the president has a some impact on the economy but after this fiasco I see they don't.

The majority of the country doesn’t vote. Trump has 45% diehard voters no matter what. If the Dems nominate some far Left, Trump wins easily. He won’t win the popular vote but he will win the electoral college. Can a president be impeached twice? No doubt he’d still be pulling crimes in his second term.

45% is too high. It’s more like 30-35%.

Trump won the EV because he won MI, WI, and PA by the skin of his teeth. If he’s re-elected he’ll have to hold on to 2 of 3 of those states, and I don’t see it happening.

He's God's Chosen. He will win again.

It's time you disciples of evil Accept Our Lord Donald Trump as YOUR SAVIOR.

Swing states need to swing the other way this time. When most of those states swung his way that helped him win, right?

OP is a troll, and there has never been a President in history do what this man has done and is doing- so...

Voter suppression, Russian interference, "oops!" voting machines, the weight of the Electoral College, a schoolmarm or doddering retread heading the Dem ticket: Trump is a shoe-in.

Hope.

R35, it depends on what you mean by swing state. MI, WI, and PA were not considered swing states before 2016. They had been very reliably Democratic for decades.

R39 R35 Yep, Trump can keep the "swing states" of Florida, Virginia, Ohio,, North Carolina - but the Dems keep Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania (which they lost by only 70k votes among the three in 2016) Trump loses. Dems lost those three because of efforts to suppress the turnout, lack of enthusiasm for HC, and some taking for granted Trump would lose. This is where the argument to nominate someone safe, white, and male in order to win the election falls apart. Inspire voters of color to turn out in these three states - Dems win. Inspire suburban women in these three states to turn out - Dems win.

R40, Trump won’t be “keeping” Virginia because it went with Hillary and is now a blue state.

Trump will not be on the ticket.

Pence, Niki Haley or John Kasich will be running. Historical model doesn't count.

Trump can win Virginia if Warren is nominee, polling indicates

R43, that's worrying. Link?

[quote] Trump will not be on the ticket. Pence, Niki Haley or John Kasich will be running. Historical model doesn't count.

Correct, except Pence is going to get very dirtied by the Ukraine thing before all is said and done. He also has obstruction exposure (read the damning Mueller report)

r42 is right on target though, the orange dotard will not survive this impeachment. We have to be very careful who we pick because a "reasonable' (the worst kind of evil) will have a shot if they play their cards right.

Everyone on deck for this one, third party tantrum voters need to ball up and vote for the Democrat whomever that happens to be because they will NOT be running against DUMP

I cop to being a concern troll, but every time I hear Elizabeth Warren's hectoring school marm voice I worry if she is the candidate she is going to turn off the low information undecided voters. Same with Amy Klobichar.

All you have to remember is the one the Repukes spread the most disinformation about is the one they most fear.

Let me guess, R46. You also thought Hillary Clinton had a hectoring schoolmarm voice?

Just admit it’s not their voices you have a problem with. It’s their vaginas.

The problem is that Americans view smart women As lacking charm, condescending, cold, and not likable. Most Smart women in politics will be viewed as the type people want to have a beer with or watch a game with. It’s a huge handicap for female politicians.

R49 The rabid right loved Palin. The far left love AOC. How do you assess these? (And "not smart" doesn't work for Palin, I think. The Right thought she was sharp as a tack,)

No they didn’t r50

He s not going to win re electiion. Even the deplorables are starting to boycott his rallys. I seriously doubt that he is even the canddidate in early spring.. His poll numbers are getting so bad the repubs will getg rid of him and put romney in as prez until 2020l Pence will be out too.

[quote]You're over the top about transgenders in bathrooms. We have gender neutral ones at work and no one is losing their mind.

The bathroom issue may be easy to solve but how many gender neutral locker rooms are there? This is important to me, I love my gym.

Trump has a strong 40% base of support and they vote. Plus you add the power of incumbency and anyone can make a strong case that Trump will be reelected. Trump will not be reelected if we are smart and focused and don't get caught up on bullshit divisive issues.

So the model is suggesting that this presidency that is unlike any other presidency in modern history, is exactly like every presidency in modern history.

[quote] Trump has a strong 40% base of support and they vote. Plus you add the power of incumbency and anyone can make a strong case that Trump will be reelected. Trump will not be reelected if we are smart and focused and don't get caught up on bullshit divisive issues.

Anyone who is predicting low turnout can make a strong case.

You really can't make much of a case for Trump to be reelected, at least not right now. His campaign is in real trouble. He's got 60% of the country that doesn't think he deserves to be reelected and nearly 50% of the country who not only disapprove, they strongly disapprove.

He's lost the suburbs and he's lost white women, two constituencies he badly needs. He's lost a few of the key swing states and there are no signs that he can get them back. He thinks he's God's gift to campaigning and he's not listening to anyone, unlike 2016, when experienced campaign consultants at least managed to wrest his Twitter feed away from him for a while.

He's doubling down on the drama, the racism, the ridiculous rhetoric. He's caught in a feedback loop in those rallies of his, where he has to go farther and farther off the deep end to keep his MAGA base applauding him, applause that he is desperate for right now.

He's lashing out right and left, making ridiculous decisions just to show that he can. He is melting down in front of us and it isn't going well. He's lost roughly the 8 percentage points he needs to win and, so far, there are no signs that he's even trying to win them back, much less that he knows how to do so.

Given the economic volatility and the increasing likelihood of problems there, given his many foreign policy failures, given all of the above, you just cannot make a good case for him right now. [italic]Can[/italic] he win? Of course he can; it's still a year away. [italic]Will[/italic] he win? Based on what we're seeing right now, I'm skeptical.

I think he's going to win, but that's largely because I'm a pessimist and have a dark vision of the future.

We need to do what we have to keep stock prices up. We can’t take chances as many of us approach retirement.

WTF, r58???

I tend to be optimistic, but I think Trump Is so unorthodox and appeals to dark inclinations in people that are now unleashed, I fear he will be re-elected. I know so many people who shockingly support him because they think he is shaking things up, opposing people they dislike, or fighting abortion. Many of his supporters are stealth supporters.

Voting rights for prisoners!

Voting rights for corporations!

[quote] We need to do what we have to keep stock prices up. We can’t take chances as many of us approach retirement.

Ma’am recessions are inevitable. “We” cannot stop that. Republicans help expedite the inevitable.

2020 National GE: Generic Dem 48% (+7) Donald Trump 41% . Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 47% (+6) Republicans 41%

@YouGovUS/@TheEconomist 10/27-29

2020 National GE: Generic Dem 48% (+7) Donald Trump 41% . Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 47% (+6) Republicans 41%

@YouGovUS/@TheEconomist 10/27-29

Trump's support has never deviated from 4 in 10 motivated voters ("the Base"). Now factor in the Bradley Effect (middle-class whites and women who say they wouldn't vote for him, but will); massive voter suppression in many states and locales; accidentally-on-purpose mis-counts; a Democratic opponent who will just cause either apathy, or outrage with talk of Medicare for All and reparations; and the weight of the Electoral College.

Trump for the win in 2020.

Given that Trump won by fewer than 100,000 voters in three states 3 years ago and he is polling worse than he was 3 years ago in those states and every state he lost, he is toast.

But please keep fucking that chicken.

Pretty much, R67. If your only path to victory is what R66 has posited, including that supposed "Bradley Effect," for which there is no evidence, I don't think much of your chances.

Trump needs another 6-10% of the voters in 2020. Where is he going to get them?

From more uninspired black people

LOL... And that's even dumber. Get real.

Dumb blacks aren’t going to vote for a white Democratic candidate, and they aren’t going to vote for half-black prosecutor Kamala or gay light-skinned Cory... so it’s going to be Trump b

If Blacks vote Trump will lose. If they come out like they did for Obama then we are done with this nightmare at least for now. But I fear Blacks won't get out the vote and then Trump gets re-elected. And that sucks.

So, you think black people will vote for Trump in 2020? Interesting theory, since they didn't vote for him in 2016. I think many will stay home since they don't like any of the democrats running.

^ no

Blacks will stay home. But they’re a small constituency, so it really doesn’t matter.

What is important is getting the swing state white voters to go Democratic.

Where is your evidence that black voters will vote in lower numbers than they did in 2016?

11 percent of blacks voters rejected Hillary in 2016. Just enough for Trump to win

[quote] 11 percent of blacks voters rejected Hillary in 2016. Just enough for Trump to win

How many "rejected" Obama?

All of this racist bullshit about blacks not voting...the Russian trolls are working overtime. Find out why so many red and purple states are actively purging voting rolls. Usually in areas with high black populations.

Presidential elections are so close that multiple factors are “but for” causes of the outcome. One factor is voter suppression. Another is lower turnout among Democratic leaning voters, including youth and toons adults, African Americans, and urbanites.

Young adults

[quote] 11 percent of blacks voters rejected Hillary in 2016. Just enough for Trump to win

For the last 50+ yrs the majority of whites have voted Republican and they will continue to do so. Why should black people be expected to save whites from themselves. Regardless of who is in office, the majority of the gains go to whites. 65% of Whites voted in 2016. 59% of Blacks voted. Latino turnout and Asian turnout was much lower. Generally speaking, turnout is abysmal. Almost 40% of Whites did not vote. Yet you’re here, day in and day out, demanding that black people save Whites. Meanwhile Whites refuse to even entertain a conversation about institutional racism, much less address it in any meaningful way. Voting for Democrats is not going to stop employment discrimination nor housing discrimination. Nor will it prevent police shootings. It will stop or slow the Republican agenda. Are black people supposed to consider that progress?

49% of Asians voted in 2016.

47% of Hispanics voted in 2016.

[quote]Find out why so many red and purple states are actively purging voting rolls. Usually in areas with high black populations.

Most of those blacks being “purged” are in prison or have already been killed by other blacks.

[quote] Most of those blacks being “purged” are in prison or have already been killed by other blacks.

You do know that most white victims of violent crimes are victimized by other whites (80 something percent). Perhaps you should focus on eradicating white on white violent crime. Republicans suppress voters through voter purges, ID laws and other shenanigans because they have nothing to offer voters. End of story. You’re attempting to use white supremacist rhetoric to justify your party’s cheating.

Preach it r85!

Amen r85. I wish these Russian bots would go back to Moscow and swig gallons of cheap vodka on street corners as they are apt to do.

@IChotiner A few bonus tabs, corresponding to some points in the article. In Mich., Biden led among 2018 voters by 10 points, 51-41, and trailed among 2018 non-voters, 34-50--biggest gap in our polling (could be noise, small sample) Warren led among nonwhite men by just a 49 to 33 margin.

Democrats are wisely very focused on electoral vulnerabilities for this next cycle. If you look at how leadership has handled the 2018 race for control of the house and the special elections (like Doug Jones in Alabama) that have happened since the Orange Shithead has been soiling the oval, you see strategic leadership making the right decisions about resources and candidates to promote.

Independents are deciding this next presidential cycle. Even if ALL republicans voted twice for Dump, there aren't enough of them to out perform and out vote an activated independents and democratic turnout.

It comes down to turnout and subverting voter suppression techniques. Dems have made significant progress in these areas since the orange dotard stole the election.

[quote]Democrats are wisely very focused on electoral vulnerabilities for this next cycle.

They need to be making sure that Susan Collins loses her seat, and be working hard to get rid of Mitch McConnell. He has an 18% approval rating, and Kentuckians just elected a Democratic Governor.

R3, because those folks don’t vote. Dems don’t vote.

Graham is another piece of shit that needs to go.

No current Democratic contender can beat Trump, billionaire BET founder says

I just don't accept that. I agree the Democrats need to choose carefully, but HRC won the popular vote despite everything and then was not now. It may be a nail biter, though it shouldn't be, but surely he can be defeated by the right candidate (from within the existing ranks... at this point in my view if a last minute entry is the nominee it's got desperate written all over it.)

The media is in full swing to a) deliver the nail biting drama and b) give Putin the narrative he needs to make his hacking less obvious.

One thing that scares me is how Strong Trump’s social media and get out the vote operation is. David Axelrid just says Trump has a fearsome database that is aiming to increase his base by identifying people who didn’t vote in 2016 but are supportive of Trump. He says the Trump Campaign is likely to get more people to come out to vote for him In 2020 than did in 2016, and democrats need to wake up and outmatch his operation.

Michele Obama offered to go campaign in Wisconsin in the final days of the campaign. She turned her down. Gross malpractice

#NEW National General Election:

Trump 44 (+3) Biden 41

Trump 44 (+5) Sanders 39

Trump 45 (+8) Warren 37

Trump 43 (+9) Bloomberg 34

Trump 43 (+10) Buttigieg 33

Suffolk University/USA Today Poll

Because idiots on the left are supporting two OLD WHITE MEN who have no chance of beating this demon.

r98 Don't worry about these H2H matchups too much because the voters are still divided between different Dem candidates. These numbers will improve once we get a nominee to rally behind.

R100. It will be Biden OR Bernie. Neither of whom will have a chance. Old WHITE MEN.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?" ALL Approve 45% Disapprove 51% WOMEN Approve 35% Disapprove 61% MEN Approve 56% Disapprove 42% (Gallup Poll, 12/2-15/19) trend:

The Dems are going to put up a loon against him. He'll win. Hopefully Dems will take more seats in the House... would love for them to take the Senate as well.

[quote]Because idiots on the left are supporting two OLD WHITE MEN who have no chance of beating this demon.

It's specifically who those white men are - Biden, who sounds like he's in the final stages of dementia, and Bernie, who's batshit crazy. All the Right has to play are clips of him praising Venezuela, honeymooning nude in the Soviet Union, talking about taking away people's employer-based health care, and advocating prisoner voting rights.

The Democratic Party needs a reset for 2024 and find someone who isn't 300 years old.

I blame rank and file Democrats for failing to raise up charismatic New leaders

If you think professors who act like professors can win, take a seat trying to advise Democrats. Obama was a con law professor, but he eclipsed that by projecting himself as a scrappy Midwest activist and legislator.

The ‘But I Would Vote for Joe Biden’ Republicans 👆 This was a key part of Hillary Clinton‘s strategy in 2016—hence the Bush alum endorsements, “alt right” speech, highlighting steadiness. In the end she lost Rs 88-8%, and lost independents 46-42%.

VIRGINIA Trump 51% (+6) Sanders 45% . Trump 48% (+4) Warren 44% . Trump 47% (+2) Buttigieg 45%

@MasonDixonPoll 12/12-16

Fresh Mason-Dixon poll: Joe Biden tops Donald Trump in Florida

Trump holds leads over three other top Democrats, according to Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy of Jacksonville.

Trump tops U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts by a 51-42 spread; U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, 49-44; and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 49-45.

Be optimistic, maybe he'll drop dead.

I’d prefer Bernie Sanders, but whoever gets the nomination will have my support. Even Pete Buttigieg.

Georgia General Election:

Trump 51 (+7) Biden 44

Trump 52 (+10) Sanders 42

Trump 54 (+14) Warren 40

Trump 52 (+9) Buttigieg 43

Mason-Dixon Poll

Georgia General Election:

Trump 51 (+7) Biden 44

Trump 52 (+10) Sanders 42

Trump 54 (+14) Warren 40

Trump 52 (+9) Buttigieg 43

Mason-Dixon Poll

Probably true. The Iran fraud galvanized them, God (or whomever or probably no one) help us.

Wisconsin GE @foxnewspoll

Biden 46% (+5) Trump 41%

Sanders 46% (+4) Trump 42%

Warren 44% (+2) Trump 42%

Buttigieg 42% (+1) Trump 41%

There will be something far bigger to contend with, as I am sure Trumps secrets will be exposed in the next few months.

West Virginia Democrats have seen their share of registered voters drop significantly over the past four years. In January 2016, Democrats made up 48% of voters in the state. Now that number is below 40. The 2nd congressional district has gone from plurality Dem to plurality GOP.

Thanks Oksana at r118.

Baiul?

Just a garden-variety troll who's been all over DL pretending that Democrats are in terrible, terrible trouble. Really. Just terrible trouble. And he's really, really concerned about it. Really. Just terribly concerned.

No r121. That would be DRUNKSANA.

icymi

If the 2020 presidential election were being held today ... Donald Trump (R) 46% Joe Biden (D) 50% (ABC News/Washington Post Poll, RV, 1/20-23/20) trend:

Gallup: Trump approval up to record high 49%

Trump’s approval rating is higher now than Obama’s was in February 2016.

[quote] Over half the country now thinks he should be removed from office. I don’t see how he gets re-elected with those numbers.

It is called the Electorally College which doesn't represent half of the country.

Half the country approves of his job performance now

The U.S. labor market remained strong in January, adding 225,000 jobs

Yes, he will and that is a fuckery.

But, yes. That POS will win.

I sadly agree

ABC News’ Jonathan Karl said after tonight’s Democratic primary debate he doesn’t necessarily see anyone on that stage that the Trump campaign fears going up against.

In Iowa’s Obama-Trump counties, Democrats didn’t turn out

In NH, Republican turnout was huge, almost unprecedented for an incumbent president. Trump voters are gonna turnout huge.

Max Boot: Trump is positioned for reelection, because most people seem to care more about the strength of the stock market than about the strength of our democracy. This is how democracies die—not in darkness but in full view of a public that couldn’t care Less.

He'll carry some traditional Democratic states. Not California but maybe New York.

Stephen Cloobeck, a longtime Democratic donor, is ripping Bernie Sanders in an interview with @SRuhle. Cloobeck says "anyone but Bernie" and is calling for DNC chairman Tom Perez to "step down." Cloobeck added he's backing Mike Bloomberg for president.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 48% (+8) Republicans 40%

@NPR/@NewsHour/@maristpoll 2/13-16

Interesting. A third of the posts on this thread all from the same concern troll, wringing his hands and cherry-picking the polls and data.

I posted r138, which is good for Democrats, brah.

WISCONSIN Sanders 46% (+2) Trump 44% . Warren 46% (+2) Trump 44 % . Biden 45% (+2) Trump 43% . Buttigieg 45% (+2) Trump 43% . Klobuchar 44% (+1) Trump 43%

@YouGovUS/@ElectionsCenter 2/11-20

The DNC invested heavily in an expensive special election race in California's 25th Congressional District. A district they won by 9% in 2018.

With 76% of the Vote in the Republican, Mike Garcia is leading by 11.4%

That is a 20% swing in GOP Favor with #MailInVoting #CA25

I agree with with what commenter said here, in his comment: A Trump win in November is the end of the U.S.